384 to 1 -- Massive playdown to crown Greatest Team of All Time

[rockford]

Howdy all,


I’ve been an on-and-off OOTP binger for close to 15 years, and recently dove back in with the purchase of OOTP24. I’ve almost exclusively played fictional leagues, but I thought I’d do something different to help reacquaint myself with both the game and baseball history.


I set out to identify a very large field of teams that could, at least in some fan’s fevered imagination, be considered among baseball’s greatest.


My original intention was to set up a series of huge tournaments. But I soon realized a different approach might provide more “accurate” results. I decided to sacrifice the drama of, say, a seven-game series format in favor of a much larger sample size.


The field was broken down into 16-team leagues, which would play 10 154-game seasons. All variables like injuries, rain outs, storylines, player personalities, etc., were disabled, and each season was played “fresh,” so that player development would not be a factor. As a more or less random choice, 1962 was selected as the baseline year, and four-man rotations were used.


Teams were selected for the playdown (tournament doesn’t seem like the right word) based on two simple criteria:


1) Being a pennant-winner, or
2) Recording at least a .599 season winning percentage


Those criteria were met by 383 teams between 1901 and 2023. I decided to add a “wild card” team from Minnesota Twins history to complete the field. (Unfortunately, I forgot to consider that the 2023 season wasn’t part of the current game, so I ended up adding several more Twins teams to reach 384. More on this later, but the addition of these teams indicates the field should be widened if I decide to go through another iteration.)


Enough boring background. Let’s start getting into some results.


Teams were ranked based on their historical winning percentage, from the top-ranked 1906 Cubs at .763 to #384, the 1973 Mets at .509. A “straight draft” approach was used to divide the 384 teams into 24 16-team leagues.


I don’t know if it’s worthwhile posting the results of all 24 leagues, but here are the Top 20 teams after this qualifying round, along with their winning percentage through 10 seasons and their original seeding in parentheses.

• 1. 1933 Yankees .656 (233)
• 2. 1911 A’s .634 (32)
• 3. 1943 Cardinals .634 (22)
• 4. 2017 Nationals .627 (288)
• 5. 2019 Astros .627 (45)
• 6. 2001 Mariners .625 (6)
• 7. 1937 Yankees .618 (43)
• 8. 1910 Cubs .617 (34)
• 9. 1932 Yankees .616 (12)
• 10. 1939 Yankees .612 (11)
• 11. 1969 Twins .603 (294)
• 12. 1955 Dodgers .602 (82)
• 13. 1902 Pirates .597 (2)
• 14. 1905 Giants .596 (18)
• 15. 1942 Cardinals .594 (17)
• 16. 1969 Orioles .592 (31)
• 17. 1938 Yankees .590 (58)
• 18. 1998 Yankees .587 (9)
• 19. 1951 Giants .585 (137)
• 20. 1985 Cardinals .584 (143)

A total of 96 teams will move on to the quarterfinals, where they will be re-seeded, broken down into 16-team leagues and put through 10 seasons of competition.



More later, including a look at how “dead ball era” teams fared in the qualifying round.

[rockford]

Here’s a look at the teams that qualified for the playdown, and how they fared. We’ll look at these in 20-year increments, the first of which encompasses the Dead Ball era.


As a reminder, each team played 10 154-game seasons in the qualifying round, as a member of a 16-team league. At the end of 10 years, the three teams with the highest winning percentages in the league qualified for the quarterfinals.


Yellow = Qualified for quarterfinals


Dark Green = Among 64 teams with highest winning percentage in first round that DIDN’T qualify. These teams will compete in another qualifying round, with 12 more teams moving on to the quarterfinals.


Light Green = Out of the running, at the moment. There will eventually be a third and final qualifying round, with another field of 64 teams playing down to 12. But a lot of these teams are done.

Teams from this era that dominated in the first round include the Pirates (Honus Wagner, Fred Clarke, Vic WIllis), Giants (Christy Mathewson, Rube Marquard), Cubs (Frank Chance, Joe Tinker, Johnny Evers, Three-Finger Brown) and A’s (Home Run Baker, Chief Bender, Eddie Plank, Eddie Collins).


The White Sox went 0-for-7, with none of their top teams qualifying. The Red Sox and Tigers are on the verge of going 0-for-4.


A total of 62 teams from the Dead Ball area met the criteria of either winning a pennant or posting at least a .599 winning percentage. That total is just slightly more than the next four 20-year spans, which each saw 56-58 teams qualify. Of the Dead Ball era teams, 22.6% have qualified for the quarterfinals, a percentage that’s right in line with the next four 20-year periods.


So, since Dead Ball teams competed against teams from all eras in the qualifying round, it doesn’t appear they’ll have an obviously unfair advantage against teams from more modern eras. In fact, when you look at the percentage of teams that are either in the quarterfinals or good enough to make the second qualifying round, the Dead Ball era may be slightly underrepresented.

[rockford]

Teams from the Dead Ball era made up an inordinate amount of the highest-seeded teams, placing 10 in the top 25, about twice what a proportional share would be. Given the relative youth of the league at that time, this would seem to indicate that the era’s best teams were much better than their competition; i.e., the gap between the best and rest of the pack narrowed a bit as the league matured.


Of the 10 Dead Ball teams that were seeded in the top 25, six qualified for the quarterfinals. Two more teams made it to the second qualifying round. The final two teams failed to crack the .500 mark in qualifying play, and are likely done.


Here’s a look at the Dead Ball era Top 10, with their original seeding as well as their current rank and winning percentage in the qualifier:

1 1906 Cubs – 50th .560
2 1902 Pirates – 14th .597
3 1909 Pirates – 46th .562
8 1907 Cubs – 102nd .535 (in 2nd qualifier)
15 1904 Giants – 335th .446 (currently out)
16 1912 Red Sox – 95th .538 (in 2nd qualifier)
18 1905 Giants – 15th .596
19 1919 Reds – 324th .453 (currently out)
24 1912 Giants – 28th .577
25 1910 A’s – 66th .551

Other Dead Ball era teams in the quarterfinals:

26 1909 Cubs – 24th .580
32 1911 A’s – 2nd .634
34 1910 Cubs – 9th .617
62 1903 Pirates – 30th .573
69 1911 Giants – 44th .564
129 1913 A’s – 67th .551
163 1909 A’s – 77th .546
191 1912 Pirates – 41st .564

The last three teams listed above all beat expectations considerably, rising between about 60 and 150 spots in the rankings.

Underperformers include the 1901 Pirates, who were seeded 70th but finished 377th at .375, and the 1908 Cubs, seeded 75th but finishing 333rd at .448.

[rockford]

The 1921-1940 era sees the rise of the Yankee dynasty. In the 20-year span, 14 Yankees teams either won a pennant or posted a .599 or better winning percentage. Seven of these teams have qualified for our quarterfinals, while four others managed to make the second qualifying round.


The 1927 Yankees, oft mentioned as one of the greatest teams in history, didn’t exactly tear it up in the initial qualifying round. Seeded seventh, they failed to garner a quarterfinal berth despite winning at a .549 clip, good enough for 69th overall. Teams advancing from the ’27 Yanks’ qualifying league were the 1969 Orioles, the 1991 Braves and the 2019 Dodgers.


Two Yankees teams greatly outperformed expectations. The ’33 Yanks were seeded 233rd, but posted the highest winning percentage in the qualifying round at .656. The ’31 Yanks were seeded 197th, but went .569 to finish 35th.


Three teams managed notable breakthroughs. The 1921 Indians were ranked 220th, but went .545 (80th overall) and advanced to the quarters. The 1922 Browns were ranked 260th, but went .529 (112th) and also managed to advance. And the 1939 Cards were seeded 272nd, but finished the qualifying round 38th at .564.



Amongst this era’s biggest disappointments were the 1929 Cubs (seeded 73, but could only manage a .449 win percentage and finished 331st). The 1928 Yankees were seeded 51st but went .467, 287th overall.



Here’s the era’s Top 10 by original seed, along with their current rank and winning percentage in the qualifier:

7 1927 Yankees – 69th .549 (in 2nd qualifier)
10 1931 A’s – 100th .536 (in 2nd qualifier)
11 1939 Yankees – 11th .612
12 1932 Yankees – 10th .616
14 1929 A’s – 111th .529 (in 2nd qualifier)
37 1936 Yankees – 54th .557
43 1937 Yankees – 8th .618
44 1930 A’s – 123rd .525 (in second qualifier)
49 1931 Cardinals – 109th .530 (in second qualifier)
51 1928 Yankees – 287th .467 (currently out)

So, Dead Ball: 6 of Top 10 qualified, 2 more still alive
1921-1940: 4 of Top 10 qualified, 5 more still alive

Other teams from this era in the quarters:
52 1934 Tigers – 127th .521
64 1935 Cubs – 52nd .560
220 1921 Indians – 80th .545
260 1922 Browns – 112th .529
272 1939 Cardinals – 38th .564


Like the Dead Ball era, there were three teams that vastly overachieved, in this case moving up 140 to nearly 235 positions in the rankings.

[italyprof]

Amazing tournament. Thanks for posting these results.

I think the 1922 Browns are one of the most undrrated greatest teams of all time. They came up just short of the pennant against the Babe Ruth Yankees.

[Izarmt]

Which era do you believe showcased stronger teams in the tournament - the Dead Ball era or the 1921-1940 era - based on the performance and rankings of the teams mentioned?

[rockford]

Originally Posted by italyprof

Amazing tournament. Thanks for posting these results.

I think the 1922 Browns are one of the most undrrated greatest teams of all time. They came up just short of the pennant against the Babe Ruth Yankees.

Glad you're enjoying it!



Yeah, the purpose of such a huge tournament field -- and the 10-season format -- was to give relatively unsung teams another chance to shine. Not every great team won a World Series, or even a pennant.


As a Twins fan, I think of the 1969-70 squads, with HOFers Harmon Killebrew, Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Jim Kaat and Bert Blyleven. Won 97 and 98 games ... and couldn't get past the Orioles. Relatively forgotten teams that were arguably stronger than some World Series champs.

(Spoiler alert: The '69 Twins were seeded 294th in this tournament ... and finished the initial qualifier ranked 12th with .603 winning percentage.)

It will be interesting to see which unsung teams rise to the top ... and try to figure out why.

[rockford]

Originally Posted by Izarmt

Which era do you believe showcased stronger teams in the tournament - the Dead Ball era or the 1921-1940 era - based on the performance and rankings of the teams mentioned?

That's a great -- and important -- question. And one I don't have an easy answer for yet.


The biggest question I had going in was if Dead Ball teams would have an unfair advantage (or disadvantage) compared to other eras. One statistical analysis suggests there were only three really distinct eras in baseball history -- the Dead Ball era, the Steroids era ... and everything else. So how would the simulation handle the disparity in eras?


At this point, I'd guess Dead Ball era teams are doing better than their 1921-1940 counterparts. Unfairly so? Don't know yet.



This is something we'll need to take a close look at. In fact, I'm not necessarily opposed to leaving Dead Ball teams out of future tournaments, if it seems they're having unwarranted success.


I'll provide more data on the initial qualifying round, when time permits. When we get into the quarterfinals, we'll start taking closer looks at stats, as well.


Glad you asked! Will be interesting to see what the numbers tell us.

[rockford]

After further review, I must correct myself. Generally speaking, Dead Ball teams appeared to underperform, while 1921-1940 teams outperformed expectations.


There were 116 teams in the tournament from 1901-1940 -- 63 from 1901-1920 (54.3% of the sample) and 53 from 1921-1940 (45.7%).


41 of 116 teams finished within 50 places of their seeding, which is actually much closer to expectations than it sounds. Consider, 17 teams qualified with a winning percentage of .623, and they were seeded 139 to 156. World Series winners were ranked at the top, pennant winners next, followed by others … but that’s still a big range for teams with the same winning percentage. And when you consider there were five more teams with percentages of .624 or .625, and seven more with marks of .622 or .621 … well, you get the picture. That’s 29 teams within five-thousandths of one percent, so a swing of 50 (or even 100) positions from seeding to result is not terribly out of line.


But what we’re interested in – I think – are the outliers.


16 of the 116 teams finished more than 200 places off from their seeding. Only two teams did so to the positive – the 1933 Yankees (seeded 233, finished first) and the 1908 Tigers (seeded 326, finished 121).


Of the 14 teams that finished more than 200 places lower than their seeding, 11 are from the Dead Ball era, a much higher proportion than the sample size would indicate (78.6% compared to 54.3% sample size).


Of the 15 teams that finished 151-200 places off from their seeding, six did so to the positive, but only one is from the Dead Ball era. Of the nine that finished 151-200 places lower than seeded, six are Dead Ball teams.


Of the 15 teams that finished 101-150 places off from their seeding, six did so to the positive, but only two are Dead Ball. Of the nine that finished lower, six are Dead Ball, again larger than the sample size would indicate.


So … Dead Ball teams appear to have underperformed, at least when compared directly to the 1921-1940 era. To a certain extent, this would validate the assumption that the Dead Ball era had so many teams with high winning percentages because there was a greater talent gap from the best teams to the worst in this era compared to later years. Lots of teams ran up some gaudy winning percentages in real life, but many of them faltered against later (tougher) competition in our tourney.


Based on this (and good ol’ “feels”), I’m not too concerned Dead Ball teams have an unfair advantage in this tournament … at least generally speaking.

[rockford]

Alright, let’s move on to our next era.


The Yankees became even more dominant from 1941-1960. Seventeen Yankee squads from this period qualified for our playdown. Five have already clinched spots in the quarterfinals, and four more are still alive in the “second chance” qualifier.


The Dodgers had 10 teams from this era in the playdown. Two teams from the early Jackie Robinson era have qualified for the quarterfinals, and three more are still alive. The '55 Dodgers made a strong bid, moving up from the 88th seed to finish 12th.


The Cards were probably the era’s final powerhouse, with seven teams in the playdown. Three Cards teams from 1942-44 led by a youthful Stan Musial are in the quarters, and two more are in the “second chance.” The ’43 Cards, seeded 22nd, did exceptionally well in the qualifier, finishing fourth overall with a .634 win percentage.


This era produced one of the biggest flops of the qualifying round. The 1954 Indians were seeded fourth by virtue of their .720 win percentage that year. In their 10 seasons in the qualifier, the ’54 Indians managed just a .506 win percentage. They are the highest seed to not yet earn a spot in the quarterfinals. (Although, to be fair, their futility pales in comparison to the 2020 Dodgers; L.A. also notched a .720 win percentage, but went just .418 in the 10-season qualifier, finishing 360th.)


The biggest overachievers were the ’51 Giants (seeded 137, finished 19th) and the ’48 Indians (seeded 133, finished 33rd).

The era’s Top 10 by original seed,
4 -- 1954 Indians 183rd .506 (currently out)
17 1942 Cards 17th .594
21 1944 Cards 49th .561
22 1943 Cards 4th .634
23 1953 Dodgers 72nd .548
28 1946 Red Sox 208th .497 (currently out)
29 1942 Dodgers 165th .510 (currently out)
34 1942 Yankees 65th .552
35 1954 Yankees 22nd .583
48 1941 Yankees 29th .573

Other teams from this era in the quarters:
82 1955 Dodgers 12th .602
88 1943 Yankees 50th .560
133 1948 Indians 33rd .569
137 1951 Giants 19th .585
153 1949 Red Sox 77th .545
142 1955 Yankees 58th .556
173 1952 Yankees 87th .542

[rockford]

The Reds and Orioles were among the teams elbowing aside the Yankees in the 1961-1980 era … although not completely. The Yankees still managed to place 10 teams in the tourney, but only two (’62 and ’77) have made it to the quarters, and only one more (’76) is alive in the second-chance. And the ’61 Yanks turned in one of the most underwhelming performances of the tourney, entering as the 30th seed but finishing 274th with a .443 win percentage.


The Reds had eight teams in the tourney, with two in the quarters (’75 and ’76) and three more in the second-chance (’70 and “73-’74).


The Orioles from 1969-71 are one of only six groups of teams to qualify for the quarters in a block of three consecutive years. The only others are A’s (1909-11), the Yankees (1931-33 and 1936-1939, the only four-year stretch), the Cardinals (1942-44) and the Dodgers (2017-19).


The ’66 Orioles also made it to the quarters, helping cement the O’s as the dominant franchise from this era in the tournament.


The Pirates (1971-72) are the only other team in the era to advance more than one squad to the quarters.


The A’s dynasty in the early ‘70s completely flopped in the tournament. Teams from 1971-75 were in the qualifier, but none did well enough to even earn a berth in the second-chance. The best showing was by the ’73 club, seeded 342 but finishing 170th with a .508 win percentage. They’ll likely be the only representative from the dynasty in the third and final qualifier.


As mentioned earlier, one of the biggest surprises in the tournament is the ’69 Twins, seeded 294th but finishing 11th at .603. In real life, they were beaten in the postseason by the Orioles. Interestingly enough, the ’69 Twins and ’69 Orioles are the only two teams from the same year to crack the Top 20.


The era’s Top 10 by original seed, followed by current position and win percentage in the qualifier:


30 1961 Yankees 274th .443 (currently out)
31 1969 Orioles 16th .592
38 1975 Reds 47th .562
39 1970 Orioles 35th .569
71 1963 Yankees 145th .516 (currently out)
87 1971 Orioles 44th .563
89 1968 Tigers 144th .516 (currently out)
111 1976 Reds 39th .564
115 1970 Reds 95th .538 (in 2nd qualifier)
117 1965 Twins 257th .482 (currently out)


Other teams from this era in the quarterfinals:
138 1962 Giants 52nd .558
164 1972 Pirates 42nd .564
203 1963 Dodgers 60th .554
278 1971 Pirates 89th .541
294 1969 Twins 11th .603
314 1962 Yankees 96th .537


Finally, here’s something I need to note in case there are future all-time tournaments. As mentioned earlier, I added several Twins teams to the tournament to round out the field to 384. (None of these qualified by winning a pennant or playing at least .599 ball.) In this era, the ’63 and ’67 Twins were added as wild cards. If the ’67 Twins had been seeded, they would have been 366th … but they played .538 ball and made it to the second-chance qualifier. If the ’63 team had been seeded, it would have been 381st (third from last), but went .536 and is also in the second-chance.


And a spoiler alert, the ’88 Twins were also a wild card, and would have been seeded 366, but went .557 (54th overall) and are in the quarterfinals.


The point is, if these three teams with real-life win percentages between .555 and .565 can challenge to become one of the Top 100 teams of all time … well, then the bar for entry in the tournament should be lowered from .599 to at least .555 (a 90-win season in a 162-game schedule). In fact, I can’t see doing future tourneys without increasing the field.

[rockford]

Here's the graph for 1941-60. I've updated the color-coding slightly.


Yellow -- In the quarterfinals


Dark Green -- In the second-chance qualifier



Light Green -- Will likely be in the last-chance qualifier


Pinkish -- Likely eliminated, unless resurrected by the Selection Committee for the last-chance qualifier

[rockford]

[rockford]

And then the time of dynasties ended. Yes, some franchises were more dominant than others from 1981-2000. The Yankees and Braves each had seven teams in the tourney from this era, but only one other club (Indians) had as many as four. And only three franchises managed to advance multiple teams to the quarters -- Yankees (’94 and ’98), Braves (’91 and ’98) and Mets (’86 and ’88).


There is also a paucity of teams – 4 -- from this era still clinging to life in the second-chance qualifier.


This era’s top seeds struggled in the qualifier – only three of the Top 10 advanced, with just one more in the second-chance.


On the other hand, seven lower-ranked teams surged into the quarters, some remarkably so. The ’91 Braves went from the 343 seed to finish 32nd. The ’99 Astros went from 300 to 41st. The ’93 Phillies went from 284 to 25th. And as mentioned earlier, the wild card ’88 Twins finished 54th.


The era’s Top 10 by original seed, followed by current position and win percentage in the qualifier:
9 1998 Yankees 18th .587
13 1995 Indians 141st .518 (currently out)
36 1986 Mets 24th .579
56 1998 Braves 36th .565
67 1994 Expos 105th .533 (in 2nd qualifier)
76 1984 Tigers 143rd .517 (currently out)
77 1988 268th .478 A’s (currently out)
81 1993 140th .518 Braves (currently out)
95 1990 A’s 258th .482 (currently out)
98 1999 Braves 231st .489 (currently out)

Other teams from this era in the quarterfinals:
106 1993 Giants 38th .564
136 1988 Mets 30th .571
143 1985 Cardinals 20th .584
166 1994 Yankees 26th .577
284 1993 Phillies 25th .579
300 1999 Astros 41st .564
343 1991 Braves 32nd .569
Wild 1988 Twins 54th .557


Yellow = In quarterfinals
Dark Green = In second-chance qualifier
Light Green = Likely in last-chance qualifier
Pinkish = Likely eliminated

[rockford]

Recent Dodgers and Astros teams dominate in the era since the turn of the century. (We’re gonna lump 2021 and 2022 in with the first two decades.)


As mentioned earlier, the 2017-19 Dodgers are one of only six groups of teams to qualify for the quarters in blocks of at least three consecutive years (only one team made it four straight years). The Dodgers also had entrants from 2020-22, but none made it into the second-chance.


The Astros had five entrants from 2017-22, but only one (’19) made it to the quarters, and none of the others are in the second-chance.


Other than the Dodgers, the Nationals (2017, 2019) are the only other franchise from this era to advance more than a single team to the quarters, and both Washington teams did so in remarkable fashion, moving from the 288th and 349th seeds to current rankings of 4th and 31st.


The 2020 Dodgers turned in the worst showing of any era’s top seed, coming in 5th but finishing 359th at .418. On the other hand, the 2018 Dodgers were the lowest-seeded team (361st) to make the quarters, going .544 to finish 81st.


The 2020 Rays failed remarkably, seeded 41st but managing just a .322 win percentage and finishing 382nd (third worst).


In general, modern teams did not fare well. Only eight teams qualified from 2001-2022. Other eras saw 12-14 teams move on to the quarterfinals.


The era’s Top 10 by original seed, followed by current position and win percentage in the qualifier:
5 2020 Dodgers 359th .418 (currently out)
6 2001 Mariners 6th .625
20 2022 Dodgers 346th .437 (currently out)
40 2018 Red Sox 73rd .547 (currently out)
41 2020 Rays 382nd .322 (currently out)
45 2019 Astros 5th .627
46 2021 Giants 304th .460 (currently out)
54 2022 Astros 354th .423 (currently out)
55 2019 Dodgers 22nd .582
57 2021 Dodgers 261st .481 (currently out)

Other teams from this era in the quarterfinals:
78 2017 Dodgers 46th .562
288 2017 Nationals 4th .627
317 2011 Rangers 75th .546
349 2019 Nationals 31st .570
361 2018 Dodgers 81st .544

[rockford]

The top seeds in the OOTP24 GTOAT playdown have been finalized. These are the Top 72 teams based on their performance in the recently completed 384-team qualifier.


The Yankees led the way with 16 teams in the Top 72, followed by the Pirates with seven, the Dodgers and Giants with six, and the Cardinals with five. The A’s, Cubs and Orioles all have four entrants. No other franchise has more than two.


Only 33 of the teams were originally seeded in the Top 72 by win percentage. The majority worked their way up, including 12 teams who moved up 200 or more places. As mentioned earlier, a swing of 100 positions between seeding and result is probably not unusual, given how closely the teams were packed when seeded by winning percentage; 51 of the 72 teams (70.8%) were originally seeded 172 or higher.


The teams were nearly evenly distributed throughout our 20-year eras, with the exception of the 21st century. Significantly fewer modern teams than would be expected moved into the quarterfinals, even though three of them were among the top six teams in the qualifier.


1901-1920 – 14 teams (62 teams in qualifier) 22.6%
1921-1940 – 12 teams (56 teams in qualifier) 21.4%
1941-1960 -- 13 teams (57 teams in qualifier) 22.8%
1961-1980 -- 13 teams (60 teams in qualifier – 2 wild card) 22.4% without wild card, 21.7% with
1981-2000 – 12 teams (59 teams in qualifier – 2 wild card) 21.1% without wild card, 20.3% with
2001-2020 -- 8 teams (82 teams in qualifier – 4 wild card) 10.3% without wild card, 9.8% with
2021-2022 – 0 teams (11 teams in qualifier)


These 72 teams will be joined in the quarterfinals by 12 teams from the 64-team “Second-Chance” qualifier, and 16 teams from the 96-team “Last Chance” qualifier.



Here are the final seedings of the top 72 teams coming out of the qualifier (original seeding in parentheses):

1 1933 Yankees (233)
2 1911 A’s (32)
3 1943 Cardinals (22)
4 2017 Nationals (288)
5 2019 Astros (45)
6 2001 Mariners (6)
7 1937 Yankees (43)
8 1910 Cubs (34)
9 1932 Yankees (12)
10 1939 Yankees (11)
11 1969 Twins (294)
12 1955 Dodgers (82)
13 1902 Pirates (2)
14 1905 Giants (18)
15 1942 Cardinals (17)
16 1969 Orioles (31)
17 1938 Yankees (58)
18 1998 Yankees (9)
19 1951 Giants (137)
20 1985 Cardinals (143)
21 1954 Yankees (35)
22 2019 Dodgers (55)
23 1909 Cubs (26)
24 1993 Phillies (284)
25 1986 Mets (36)
26 1912 Giants (24)
27 1994 Yankees (166)
28 1941 Yankees (48)
29 1903 Pirates (62)
30 1988 Mets (136)
31 2019 Nationals (349)
32 1948 Indians (133)
33 1991 Braves (343)
34 1931 Yankees (197)
35 1970 Orioles (39)
36 1998 Braves (56)
37 1976 Reds (111)
38 1912 Pirates (191)
39 1993 Giants (106)
40 1939 Cardinals (272)
41 1911 Giants (69)
42 1999 Astros (300)
43 1972 Pirates (164)
44 1971 Orioles (87)
45 1975 Reds (38)
46 1909 Pirates (3)
47 2017 Dodgers (78)
48 1944 Cardinals (21)
49 1906 Cubs (1)
50 1943 Yankees (88)
51 1935 Cubs (64)
52 1962 Giants (138)
53 1936 Yankees (37)
54 1988 Twins (wildcard)
55 1955 Yankees (142)
56 1963 Dodgers (203)
57 1913 A’s (129)
58 1910 A’s (25)
59 1953 Dodgers (23)
60 2011 Rangers (317)
61 1909 A’s (163)
62 1949 Red Sox (153)
63 1921 Indians (220)
64 1966 Orioles (235)
65 2018 Dodgers (361)
66 1952 Yankees (173)
67 1971 Pirates (278)
68 1991 Pirates (243)
69 1962 Yankees (314)
70 1922 Browns (260)
71 1934 Tigers (52)
72 1977 Yankees (172)

[rockford]

The Second-Chance Qualifier is about to get underway, with 64 teams battling for 12 spots in the GTOAT Quarterfinals.


These are all clubs that were fairly close to qualifying in the first round. Consider: the 1977 Yankees secured a quarterfinal berth with just a .520 win percentage, 131st overall. A total of 58 teams that finished with a better winning percentage didn’t qualify. They’re all clinging to life in the Second-Chance.


How good are the teams in this tournament? Well, every team that ran up at least a .557 winning percentage in the first round qualified for the Quarterfinals; 54 teams out of our 384-team field managed to do so.


But at just one point lower -- .556 – only one of four teams made it.


The Second-Chance qualifier is composed of the 64 teams with the highest winning percentages in the first round that didn’t qualify for the Quarterfinals. Their win percentages in the first round ranged from .556 to .519, just one point lower than the aforementioned ’77 Yanks – and several .519 teams didn’t make the cut for the Second-Chance.


Here are the top 12 teams favored to survive the Second-Chance and advance to the Quarterfinals, based on their first-round win percentages:


1 1913 Giants
2 2009 Yankees
3 1905 Pirates
4 2011 Yankees
5 1914 A’s
6 2016 Cubs
7 1974 Reds
8 1942 Yankees
9 1956 Yankees
10 1927 Yankees
11 1958 Yankees
12 1928 Giants

[rockford]

Surprises were the order of the day as the Second-Chance qualifier got underway. The first grouping of 16 teams featured four among the top 12 teams by winning percentage in the first round. Only one survived.


The 1914 A’s, seeded in 5th in the Second-Chance, advanced with a .553 win percentage in their 10 seasons. The 1928 Giants, 1956 Yankees, and second-seeded 2009 Yankees were all rebuffed. The ’28 Giants managed just a .477 win percentage, which will likely keep them out of the Last Chance qualifier.


The 1914 A’s were originally seeded 60th, then went .554 in the initial qualifier – 61st overall – but failed to advance. They become the fifth A’s team in the six-year span from 1909 to 1914 to make it to the Quarters.


The top team emerging from the first grouping is the 2019 Twins. Originally seeded 146th, the Twins went .530 in the initial qualifier (109th), then put together 10 straight seasons of 81+ wins (154-game seasons) in the Second-Chance en route to a .560 win percentage.


The 1967 Cardinals are the final qualifier from the first grouping. Originally seeded 128th, they went .521 in the initial qualifier (127th), then .534 in the Second-Chance to secure their berth in the Quarterfinals.


Advancing
.560 2019 Twins
.553 1914 A’s
.534 1967 Cardinals

[rockford]

The 1927 Yankees took a step toward living up to their GTOAT billing by finishing first in their grouping with a .545 win percentage. The Yanks were initially seeded 7th going into the tournament, then went .549 in the first round (68th overall) but failed to qualify. In their 10 seasons in the Second Chance they won four pennants and two championships.


Hot on the Yankees’ heels was the 1907 Cubs, who finished just three games back (.543) after 10 seasons of play. The Cubs were initially seeded 8th (right behind the Yankees). They went .535 in the first round, 101st overall.


The Cubs have now qualified four teams in a five-year stretch – 1906-07 and 09-10.


The final qualifier from this grouping is the 1913 Giants, who saved their best season of the Second Chance for last, rolling up 91 wins to erase a six-game deficit and edge the 1978 Dodgers by four games.


In the first round, the Giants had the highest win percentage -- .556 – that failed to qualify. They were initially seeded 42nd, and finished the first round ranked 55th. They were the top favorite to survive the Second Chance.


The advancement of the Giants means they have now qualified teams from three consecutive years, 1911-13.


All three Second Chance teams that are moving on from this grouping came from the same eight-team league, the first time that’s happened in the tournament.


The 1963 Twins, one of two wild card teams to make it to the Second Chance, continued to make a case for their relevance by finishing fifth at .514, good enough to likely make it to the Last Chance Qualifier. Their ability to hang on also indicates a larger field is necessary for future tournaments.


Advancing (to become seeds 73-84 in the Quarterfinals)
.560 2019 Twins
.553 1914 A’s
.545 1927 Yankees
.543 1907 Cubs
.534 1967 Cardinals
.527 1913 Giants

[rockford]

The 1905 Pirates finished atop the third grouping, sneaking past the 2003 Yankees and 2013 Red Sox by just two games after 10 seasons of play.


The 1951 Dodgers suffered an epic collapse. The Dodgers won four pennants and three championships in the first four seasons of play, but then had only two winning seasons out of the remaining six and finished fifth. They will likely make it into the Last Chance Qualifier, however.


The 1905 Pirates entered the tournament seeded 132nd, but turned in the third-highest win percentage to not qualify in the first round (.556). They finished atop their grouping of the Second Chance at .530.


The 2003 Yankees were originally seeded 141st, and went .535 in the first round to rank 103rd.


The 2013 Red Sox were seeded 279th, but won at a .527 clip in the first round, ranking 116th. They become just the second Red Sox squad to make it to the Quarterfinals.


The Yankees and Red Sox finished with identical won-lost records at .529. Both teams won two pennants in the 10 seasons of play, but the Yankees were the only one to win a championship, giving them the edge in the tie-breaker.


Advancing (to become seeds 73-84 in the Quarterfinals)
.560 2019 Twins
.553 1914 A’s
.545 1927 Yankees
.543 1907 Cubs
.534 1967 Cardinals
.530 1905 Pirates
.529 2003 Yankees
.529 2013 Red Sox
.527 1913 Giants