Managing games, opponent is clutch

[phenom]

You ever feel like, when you're managing games, your opponent is almost always clutch. They almost always get the big hit, or they almost always seem to have two-out rallies, or the #9 hitter gets HBP on an 0-2 count, or they almost always seem to go walk-walk-WP-HR once you've taken a four-run lead?

I know there's probably nothing to support that. I must be the most unlucky OOTP manager ever. Just frustrated.

[pstrickert]

Pat Murphy ran into the same AI tonight in Arizona.

[Sweed]

Feel like it? Sure, as those situations stick in my brain. When it goes "the way I expect/want it to go? Yeah, instantly forgotten.

On occasion when I get in this mood I go to the team stats section and sort stats vs. only my team. One can look at a lot of situations using the split and double split options. One example might be how does my team do with runners on first and third with nobody out, compared to how AI teams do against my team with runners on first and third with nobody out. Then clear out all splits and see how the league does in the same situation.

I know you're not saying the AI is getting an advantage over the human user. But I do bring up the above method for anyone that doesn't know there is a way to check the data. It may not cover every possibility, but it covers a lot.

[phenom]

Originally Posted by Sweed

Feel like it? Sure, as those situations stick in my brain. When it goes "the way I expect/want it to go? Yeah, instantly forgotten.

On occasion when I get in this mood I go to the team stats section and sort stats vs. only my team. One can look at a lot of situations using the split and double split options. One example might be how does my team do with runners on first and third with nobody out, compared to how AI teams do against my team with runners on first and third with nobody out. Then clear out all splits and see how the league does in the same situation.

I know you're not saying the AI is getting an advantage over the human user. But I do bring up the above method for anyone that doesn't know there is a way to check the data. It may not cover every possibility, but it covers a lot.

I do all that. I've been playing this game forever, which I can most easily demonstrate by my forum join date 22+ years ago, and I know how difficult it can be to make observations that aren't compiled over many many in-game years of play. "Small Sample Size" is the mantra of this place when you question things that don't have an ungodly dataset to support the claim. I know I've been guilty of the same over the years.

For the most part I think OOTP is one of the best sports sims out there, for realism and for customization. But the last few versions have frustrated the hell out of me, specifically from a manager-only standpoint. The AI for promotions and demotions and signings is absolutely bonkers and hasn't seemed to improve. I haven't brought that up before for various reasons, but I can't be the only one seeing it.

And then when a player gets a double on an 0-2 count with 2 outs, you just feel in your bones there's a better than 50/50 chance all hell's about to break loose. Then there's a wild pitch, then a passed ball, then another double. Then an error, and on and on.

I managed a game last night wherein my Tigers pitchers gave up TEN straight hits. In the third inning, so these were actual pitchers, from a decent staff. I had to look it up - the record is 11!

It just oftentimes feels* like the AI has this ability to come back from the dead that the human-managed team does not have. But I don't have mountains of data to back that up because, quite frankly, I almost never get to June in a league without killing it.

This community is great, and has an unbelievable amount of knowledge to share, but I don't have the energy to amass what I need to debate my issue. Honestly I regret buying this version, because I don't see how it's different from the last few versions in the way I play, and when the AI throws the ball over to first five times in one at-bat (which apparently can't be coded), I get even more irked.

Anyway, that's my rant for this. I can't imagine I'm the only one who experiences this, but I'm learning that for the way I play, there's almost no changes in the last few versions that are helpful. Perhaps I'll just look for updated rosters for the versions I have going forward.

No, I'm not announcing my exit.

* - I fully understand the meaning of the word 'feels' and its use is intentional

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by phenom

I do all that. I've been playing this game forever, which I can most easily demonstrate by my forum join date 22+ years ago, and I know how difficult it can be to make observations that aren't compiled over many many in-game years of play. "Small Sample Size" is the mantra of this place when you question things that don't have an ungodly dataset to support the claim. I know I've been guilty of the same over the years.

For the most part I think OOTP is one of the best sports sims out there, for realism and for customization. But the last few versions have frustrated the hell out of me, specifically from a manager-only standpoint. The AI for promotions and demotions and signings is absolutely bonkers and hasn't seemed to improve. I haven't brought that up before for various reasons, but I can't be the only one seeing it.

And then when a player gets a double on an 0-2 count with 2 outs, you just feel in your bones there's a better than 50/50 chance all hell's about to break loose. Then there's a wild pitch, then a passed ball, then another double. Then an error, and on and on.

I managed a game last night wherein my Tigers pitchers gave up TEN straight hits. In the third inning, so these were actual pitchers, from a decent staff. I had to look it up - the record is 11!

It just oftentimes feels* like the AI has this ability to come back from the dead that the human-managed team does not have. But I don't have mountains of data to back that up because, quite frankly, I almost never get to June in a league without killing it.

This community is great, and has an unbelievable amount of knowledge to share, but I don't have the energy to amass what I need to debate my issue. Honestly I regret buying this version, because I don't see how it's different from the last few versions in the way I play, and when the AI throws the ball over to first five times in one at-bat (which apparently can't be coded), I get even more irked.

Anyway, that's my rant for this. I can't imagine I'm the only one who experiences this, but I'm learning that for the way I play, there's almost no changes in the last few versions that are helpful. Perhaps I'll just look for updated rosters for the versions I have going forward.

No, I'm not announcing my exit.

* - I fully understand the meaning of the word 'feels' and its use is intentional

One thing you could do just for fun is, quit your job as manager, put the game in commissioner mode and then manage the games of the team you just quit without being the actual manager. See if your fortunes change.

[phenom]

Originally Posted by David Watts

One thing you could do just for fun is, quit your job as manager, put the game in commissioner mode and then manage the games of the team you just quit without being the actual manager. See if your fortunes change.

What would be the benefit of that?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by phenom

What would be the benefit of that?

Who knows, but it might prove or disprove your idea that the opponent is clutch.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by phenom

What would be the benefit of that?

If the computer is biased against a human player maybe it wouldn't recognize a human is temporarily managing a human team. A lot of assumptions about OOTP have bitten the dust when people tested them.

[LansdowneSt]

Originally Posted by phenom

And then when a player gets a double on an 0-2 count with 2 outs, you just feel in your bones there's a better than 50/50 chance all hell's about to break loose. Then there's a wild pitch, then a passed ball, then another double. Then an error, and on and on.

I know that feeling. Truth be told, I had an OOTP game where I had scrapped my way to the World Series, got to game 7, had like a three-run lead in the ninth with two-outs and my closer gave put a pair on. Tying run to the plate.

I simmed the rest of the inning and he struck the guy out. Is there a part of my brain that says "If I'd have played that out, I'd have lost". Yes, yes there is. Do I know rationally that's not how the game works and it was just rolls of the dice regardless of sim v. playing it out. Yes, I do. ... but still, I chickened out and simmed it.

So, I know that feeling. You are not alone.

Of course, I'm also a Red Sox fan and was a teen in 1986. The scars run deep on just how bad things can go when things start to go bad...

[rabidwolverine99]

This is actually why I hardly play anymore. I use it to sim the odd season and try to make tweaks and stuff and just waste time seeing what happens. I am so tired of giving up 2 out rallies in this game. I tracked an entire season in the last version and the team vs me hit .389 with 2 outs. I had the number 1 ranked pitching staff. Well arguably the best staff and they were amazing with 0 or 1 put but once I got that 2 outs, I knew something might happen. I never say anything on this board really anymore because if you have an opinion on something now, you just get talked down to by some of the white knights but I have lost most interest in playing this game other than what I said.

It's still the best sports management simulation at least as far as baseball goes but ive moved on to other things. I'm glad it's not just me.

Sent from my SM-S928W using Tapatalk

[phenom]

I'm not saying or even suggesting it's blatantly coded to be like that. I also concede that I may be horribly off base here. But if the team I follow IRL were to have luck like that or were to make roster moves like this (understanding full well the contract situations of the players involved and not involved), then I'd be pretty angry, too.

It's nobody's fault. It's just how the game seems to play out for me personally. I don't know what the solution is or if there even was one. Maybe the manage-only aspect of the game needs more attention paid to it in lieu of something else. While it would be nice if that happened, I'm not going to make any demands because I'm not going to be able to help beta test it. Not gonna demand the change I'm not able/willing to work for, you know.

To clarify further - this doesn't seem to be the case with GM-only saves.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by phenom

I'm not saying or even suggesting it's blatantly coded to be like that. I also concede that I may be horribly off base here. But if the team I follow IRL were to have luck like that or were to make roster moves like this (understanding full well the contract situations of the players involved and not involved), then I'd be pretty angry, too.

It's nobody's fault. It's just how the game seems to play out for me personally. I don't know what the solution is or if there even was one. Maybe the manage-only aspect of the game needs more attention paid to it in lieu of something else. While it would be nice if that happened, I'm not going to make any demands because I'm not going to be able to help beta test it. Not gonna demand the change I'm not able/willing to work for, you know.

To clarify further - this doesn't seem to be the case with GM-only saves.

I usually just watch, but if I do actively participate, I do so in the form of manage only. I've had the same type of experience you've described, so you're not alone. When I get frustrated I tend to quit my job and go back to just watching. What's really strange is I've done so more than once and the team I quit suddenly starts winning and ends up in contention. Just started managing a team again last night and I'm determined to stick with it for at least an entire season. Will see if I have any hair left when I'm done.

[AdequateRandomGaming]

Originally Posted by phenom

I'm not saying or even suggesting it's blatantly coded to be like that. I also concede that I may be horribly off base here. But if the team I follow IRL were to have luck like that or were to make roster moves like this (understanding full well the contract situations of the players involved and not involved), then I'd be pretty angry, too.

It's nobody's fault. It's just how the game seems to play out for me personally. I don't know what the solution is or if there even was one. Maybe the manage-only aspect of the game needs more attention paid to it in lieu of something else. While it would be nice if that happened, I'm not going to make any demands because I'm not going to be able to help beta test it. Not gonna demand the change I'm not able/willing to work for, you know.

To clarify further - this doesn't seem to be the case with GM-only saves.

I definitely can empathize on the AI aspect of roster moves when playing manager only - which I've been doing for 8 years or so now...it's the only way to play for me anymore...and those boneheaded moves just add to the challenge.

As far as the clutch-ness, I will just say, perception is a funny thing. My own human coached team holds the record in my long lasting save for most runs in an inning with 18. Funny thing is, this was the first inning of the first game of the season in my long lasting save started 8 years ago when I made the switch. The other team burned 4 pitchers in that first inning. I had to go and double check all my settings after the game because I thought I messed something up. But I didn't. Why does perception matters ? Because had it been the CPU team that got 18 runs in that first inning against the Pirates...

I don't know you, obviously, but it appears that maybe you are suffering from recency bias. You've perhaps had a few bad luck moments in a row, and now every time the other team rallies you tie it to that moment to justify feeling like the CPU is always clutch. It more than likely isn't and I'll even venture so far as to say your team also probably has its own clutch moments you may be disregarding as "pure luck".

[Lucas718]

I posted about this once before and basically got laughed at. But it happens so often when you play out your games that you can practically predict when it's going to happen.

2 quick outs, then walk, single, passed ball, error, HR, lose game.

It gets old.

[phenom]

sure does

[Pelican]

Definitely have been there done that with the opponent late-game rallies. Of course, I am normally taking an underdog team (or even an expansion franchise) with less than stellar players against better teams. So to some extent, getting beat up is to be expected. I chalk that up to better talent; not better managing by the AI.

I do try to analyze or reverse-engineer what happened. Lately, for sudden opponent rallies, it has been my SP suddenly running out of gas. I'm playing the 2025 Season with the Marlins (talk about challenges). My SP can go 4 or 5 strong innings and then suddenly wilt. (I know this only when I go to the mound, and SP says he is done. There ought to be some kind of hint as to the sudden onset of fatigue.) That distinct lack of stamina seems to be directly related to the low Stamina ratings for many modern pitchers. They seem to last only 4 or 5 or 6 innings at the most, even with relatively low pitch counts. And even when pitching well.

The fatigue/stamina issue admittedly cannot account for opposition rallies where your RP comes in and walks the bases full. I don't get that. I use the warm-up rule and take care to have the RP ready to go. I just finished a three-game series, where I had leads in each game, and lost all three. My bullpen is not awful. Just, yeah, lots of clutch hitting on the other side.

Our problem in all this whining is the small sample size. We're convinced this ain't right; but it's hard to measure what is happening. Even with the aid of the stats based on game situations, that others have mentioned. My Dad always said that the breaks even out in the long run. I hope so. My guys are way overdue for some rallies.

[CubsFan1967]

The balk\passed ball\wild pitch losses are the ones that drive me crazy. I tracked a few versions ago and balks were 10X more frequent than real life. That seems to have been fixed.

The other two are the guys that hit .182 against the league and then .782 against your team and the SP with an 8.82 ERA that pitches a 2 hit shutout in managed games.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by Pelican

The fatigue/stamina issue admittedly cannot account for opposition rallies where your RP comes in and walks the bases full. I don't get that.

I have Marquee Network and have watched most Cubs games this year. In 25 games I believe they have done this three times. I know they've done it twice. Real life small sample size in action.

[Sweed]

Originally Posted by CubsFan1967

The balk\passed ball\wild pitch losses are the ones that drive me crazy. I tracked a few versions ago and balks were 10X more frequent than real life. That seems to have been fixed.

The other two are the guys that hit .182 against the league and then .782 against your team and the SP with an 8.82 ERA that pitches a 2 hit shutout in managed games.

I've tracked this for many versions and supplied data to back up my findings in many threads over the years on this topic. I never had a league that produced "too many" balks, going back to v12, that running auto-calc and letting it set the LTM didn't fix. That goes for wild pitches and passed balls too.

Here is a post I made a few years ago with data from my game. These are from v12 to v18 using auto-calc.

Originally Posted by Sweed View Post
Well the OP asked for realistic percentages and stated it "seemed" like there are too many during the game. The trouble is he doesn't tell us how many too many is? Hard to answer the question in that light.

I've played OOTP since v4. and used to manually do my LTMs. When autocalc was added I recorded my League Totals (target numbers) and the resulting OOTP season actual league totals to compare. Though I look over the totals now and haven't bothered writing them down for a few versions. I did find my old notebook and will share a few numbers v12 - v18. Excluding v15 that I didn't write down, too long ago to remember why.

The format will be..
OOTP version # (league total) My OOTP results ###,

Balks..
v12 (146) 138, 190, 222
v13 (146) 72, (LTM was at .405 maybe my error? long time ago not sure)
v14 (146) 203, 114
v15 not sure why but didn't write these down
v16 (146) 118, 137,
v17 (146) 213, 122
v18 (146) 121, 121 yes same total back to back

Wild pitches
v12 (1458) 1406, 1399, 1606
v13 (1458) 1029,
v14 (1458) 1705, 1542
v15 none
v16 (1458) 1526, 1789,
v17 (1458) 1538, 1885
v18 (1458) 1873, 1784

Real life numbers MLB 1995-2019

Balks MLB highest total 205 ........My OOTP high 222
lowest 128 ..............lowest 114 (discard 72,my error?)

Wild pitches
MLB highest 1847 .......My OOTP high 1885
low 1414 ........................low 1029 (also v13, again my error?)
.............................next lowest 1399

Not sure what happened in v13. Only completed one season. I was going through a divorce then so maybe I just lost concentration on what I was doing.

Stats from https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...itching_totals

Looks pretty good to me.

And a snipit from a post made in the OOTP25 forum..

It's been a long time since that post was made. IIRC the 146 expectation was a three year average of MLB balks at the time. The number cannot be set as a League Total, ie it's only purpose was to have a real number to check OOTP balks against. Since OOTP only shows a balk LTM I have no idea what number is under the hood that it is using as a LT, or if each era has it's own LT.

What I can show is total balks in my game and the LTM autocalc generates. In the above post from versions 16-18. And I still have v24, 23, 22 on my machine. Last full season balks from each of those..
v24 112.... LTM .407
v23 196.....LTM .565
v22 166.....LTM .493

Links to the threads..

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...highlight=balk

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...ighlight=balks




One game is about as small a sample size as one can get.

[phenom]

Have you evaluated the timing of the balks? Because they never seem to happen with one out and a runner on first in an 8-2 game, followed by two consecutive outs to end the inning.

They generally seem to be part of a larger blowup in an inning. How am I supposed to quantify that?

And again, if I haven't made it clear, there's no obvious things like pitcher fatigue or anything like that.