How Does OOTP Calculate Hold Runners Ratings?

[Charlie Hough]

I'm curious to know how OOTP calculates hold runners ratings for pitchers. What historical stats is it using as a basis for this? I find it strange that some pitchers are being given a 1 or a 2 on a 10-point scale when there doesn't seem to be anything in their detailed real life stats indicating why this would be the case.

[Brad K]

Seems to me you've determined its made up.

Given the small effect of stolen bases (within a plausible range) perhaps its used to fine tune the pitcher's ratings in a more granular way than can be done with the major inputs.

I bet you'd get a lot of responses in the regular forum.

[Garlon]

As far as I know those ratings are assigned randomly, but LHP seem to generally get much better ratings. I have been wanting this to get corrected for quite a while.

[Brad K]

How would it be fixed?

Some data on a pitcher is put into the rating system. What comes out is ratings on how many pitches he has and how good they are which is intended to result in performance matching real life even though its all made up. Same with holding runners. A guy gets a reduced rating for holding runners and a little better rating on his curve ball and it all evens out.

I don't see any reason to pick on holding runners being based on nothing when the reality is much of a pitcher's detail ratings are based on nothing. They're all a set of numbers that produce the desired performance result. The numbers can be modified infinitely and as long as the proportions are right the result is the same.

[Garlon]

We can fix it from the historical stats for pitchers. There are statistics for SB attempts and SB opportunities since 1915. There is no need to try to create this from their other statistics. I have been wanting better ratings for this for quite a while.

[Brad K]

Could it be guesswork here is what is messing up the SB success percentage of high total base stealers?

[Charlie Hough]

Originally Posted by Garlon

As far as I know those ratings are assigned randomly, but LHP seem to generally get much better ratings. I have been wanting this to get corrected for quite a while.

I'm with you there. Lefties in OOTP all have high hold runners ratings, and that gives them an unrealistically extreme advantage. Left-handers certainly have a natural advantage in real life, but things still depend on the pitcher's stretch, delivery, and how quick his move to first is. Simply being left-handed is not a guarantee that you'll be really good at holding baserunners, but that's how OOTP handles it.

Since others are confirming that these ratings are randomized, then I don't feel so bad about adjusting them in some cases.

For example, my namesake, Charlie Hough, had one of the best moves to first in baseball history. He was always right on the edge of a balk, and he was remarkably good at picking off or holding baserunners. But OOTP has never given him a high hold runners rating in my saved games.

I also don't think many MLB pitchers have ever warranted a hold runners rating of a 1 on a 10-point scale. Yes, there are pitchers who are relatively easy to run on, but a 1 is really extreme, especially in how it impacts base stealing success in OOTP.

[Garlon]

Typically, when it comes to preventing SB attempts, the relievers are worse than SP because later in the game teams are more likely to attempt a SB because they are losing and want to try to tie the game.

Regarding Hough, if you go through the data on BBR, there were 568 SB attempts made against him in 5490 opportunities. If you multiply the opportunities each season by the league average of SB attempts per opportunity, he comes out to allowing 136 more attempts than the average pitcher based on opportunities. This is not surprising since it should be easier to steal against a knuckleball pitcher.

He could have still had a good move to 1B and was good at pickoffs, but in terms of actually preventing SB attempts he was not good at that. For his career he allowed 31% more attempts than the average pitcher given the opportunities.

[Garlon]

The best ever at preventing SB attempts since 1915 was Terry Mulholland, who saved 207 SB attempts. In second place is Kenny Rogers, who saved 190 SB attempts.

[Syd Thrift]

That’s only because if you tried to steal on Kenny Rogers, he’d call you the coward of the county.

[OmahaBaseball]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

That’s only because if you tried to steal on Kenny Rogers, he’d call you the coward of the county.

Nicely done