Does it Feel Like There Are Too Many Balks

[Infinite_Jester54]

I feel like in both OTTP 24 & 25, I see a balk once a week. And I just won a game on a walk-off balk... Whereas in MLB, I haven't seen a balk since the infamous Kenley Jansen intentional balk.


Are other folks seeing a surprising number of balks? Are there any settings we can change to decrease their frequency?

[jksander]

Gotta love a balk-off win lol ... even better than on a wild pitch

[khucke]

208 balks league-wide in 2023, 7 per team average. You see one balk per week ? League-wide or for your team? Check your league totals if the totals are significantly divergent.

[tonnage]

Change your league totals to what you feel would be good for you - the beauty of OOTP, play as you wish.

[md40022]

I've long felt there were too many balks in OOTP. Never really tracked the data, but if khucke's stat from 2023 is accurate that would mean you should see a balk once every 23 games. To me it feels like over a 23 game stretch in OOTP you're probably getting 10 balks......

I've never adjusted it in the settings, so it obviously doesn't bother me that much. But I do agree with the OP.

[Sweed]

Over the years I've posted data in many threads discussing both balks and wild pitches. I have not had a problem in any version that I have had the League Total Modifier set with autocalc.


Post 14 in this thread
https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...highlight=balk

Originally Posted by Sweed

I used to write down my OOTP final season stats and compared them to my League Totals (IE expected stats). I quit doing that years ago because a quick visual check was enough to see they were all fine.

With the advent of autocalc these numbers have typically been good in my games. Autocalc has my balk LTM at .483 in v23. In v22 it is .493. That is a typical LTM in all versions I have autocalced. I have never seen a balk LTM anywhere near 1.000 using autocalc.

I can't say for sure about the first year or two of autocalc but, for me, autocalc has made the balk numbers always come out reasonably close. Keep in mind balks are a small number so any fluctuation is magnified in the percentages. IOW I normally find +\- 5% stats acceptable. Balks can be a bit farther off and still be ok, IMHO.

I did find one of my old notebooks and here are some numbers I recorded a few versions\years ago.

Expected \ OOTP

146/121
146/213
146/137
146/118
146/114

These numbers are from v16-v18. After this, as noted, I quit writing them all down.

It's been a long time since that post was made. IIRC the 146 expectation was a three year average of MLB balks at the time. The number cannot be set as a League Total, ie it's only purpose was to have a real number to check OOTP balks against. Since OOTP only shows a balk LTM I have no idea what number is under the hood that it is using as a LT, or if each era has it's own LT.

What I can show is total balks in my game and the LTM autocalc generates. In the above post from versions 16-18. And I still have v24, 23, 22 on my machine. Last full season balks from each of those..
v24 112.... LTM .407
v23 196.....LTM .565
v22 166.....LTM .493

I can only look at the last complete season in these versions for balks as I don't create an almanac. You'll have to take my word that the seasons I can't get the data for were in line with expectations.

Note no season has a LTM anywhere near 1.000. In the quoted post it says my v23 LTM is .483, this would be from whatever season I was playing at the time. So obviously it changed as it was .565 in my last completed season.

I'll throw out my v25 LTM is .647. Take this with a grain of salt as that comes from an autocalc just before spring training with all/most teams having 60 players active. I will autocalc again on opening day.

That's 8 seasons of actual data. One season over 200 , all seasons with believable numbers.

Standard MLB modern day setup with 30 teams for all versions and seasons.

Here's an old post of mine with data back to v12

Originally Posted by Sweed

Well the OP asked for realistic percentages and stated it "seemed" like there are too many during the game. The trouble is he doesn't tell us how many too many is? Hard to answer the question in that light.

I've played OOTP since v4. and used to manually do my LTMs. When autocalc was added I recorded my League Totals (target numbers) and the resulting OOTP season actual league totals to compare. Though I look over the totals now and haven't bothered writing them down for a few versions. I did find my old notebook and will share a few numbers v12 - v18. Excluding v15 that I didn't write down, too long ago to remember why.

The format will be..
OOTP version # (league total) My OOTP results ###,

Balks..
v12 (146) 138, 190, 222
v13 (146) 72, (LTM was at .405 maybe my error? long time ago not sure)
v14 (146) 203, 114
v15 not sure why but didn't write these down
v16 (146) 118, 137,
v17 (146) 213, 122
v18 (146) 121, 121 yes same total back to back

Wild pitches
v12 (1458) 1406, 1399, 1606
v13 (1458) 1029,
v14 (1458) 1705, 1542
v15 none
v16 (1458) 1526, 1789,
v17 (1458) 1538, 1885
v18 (1458) 1873, 1784

Real life numbers MLB 1995-2019

Balks MLB highest total 205 ........My OOTP high 222
lowest 128 ..............lowest 114 (discard 72,my error?)

Wild pitches
MLB highest 1847 .......My OOTP high 1885
low 1414 ........................low 1029 (also v13, again my error?)
.............................next lowest 1399

Not sure what happened in v13. Only completed one season. I was going through a divorce then so maybe I just lost concentration on what I was doing.

Stats from https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...itching_totals

Looks pretty good to me.

If one doesn't like to use autocalc I would at least suggest putting in a LTM anywhere from .425 to .565. Or setup a test league in v25 with your league, run autocalc to see what LTM it calculates and input that into your league.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Infinite_Jester54

I feel like in both OTTP 24 & 25, I see a balk once a week. And I just won a game on a walk-off balk... Whereas in MLB, I haven't seen a balk since the infamous Kenley Jansen intentional balk.


Are other folks seeing a surprising number of balks? Are there any settings we can change to decrease their frequency?

run a report proving your 'findings'
i am sure balks and walk offs are in the stats in 2025
feelings don't matter

[texasmame]

Originally Posted by Infinite_Jester54

I feel like in both OTTP 24 & 25, I see a balk once a week. And I just won a game on a walk-off balk... Whereas in MLB, I haven't seen a balk since the infamous Kenley Jansen intentional balk.


Are other folks seeing a surprising number of balks? Are there any settings we can change to decrease their frequency?

I'd lowered my frequency for balks to .700 many seasons ago - feels right.

[snepp]

My fictional league currently has balks auto-calc'd at .703. Pretty sure I started this one with modern day stats.

[redranger]

I just saw a first for me….with one of my hitters on 2nd, the pitcher balked moving him to 3rd….then next pitch, proceeded to balk again sending him home. Never saw back-to back balks before


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[Sweed]

Since my previous post I've moved past ST and into the regular season and of course autocalced on opening day.

As I mentioned above my ST AC for balks was .647

Opening day with 26 man rosters gave me .745.