The Bucs Start Here - A Pirates Do-Over

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I have the finalists from when Kathryn Janeway got the Pirates job. They have to have good business sense and be colorful. But only Gondorff is colorful enough.

Joyce Davenport, Frank Furillo, Henry Gondorff

Hill Street Blues and The Sting, two of my absolute faves.

[Brad K]

I think I made the right choice with Janeway. She had the job of getting two groups of people who didn't like each other to work as a team. And Bonny was a natural for the Pirates.

[Brad K]

I liked Hill Street Blues too. It has that gritty look of a western Pennsylvania town and I've spent some time there. Also the characters are familiar to me from that area. Plus I drove 70s Chrysler Newports most of the 90s and the Dodge Monacos are the Dodge version of the Newports. The best handling big cars ever made. Take a bump and settle down right away. Even without the police package.

Sorry for dragging your thread off topic. I'll stop now.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I liked Hill Street Blues too. It has that gritty look of a western Pennsylvania town and I've spent some time there. Also the characters are familiar to me from that area. Plus I drove 70s Chrysler Newports most of the 90s and the Dodge Monacos are the Dodge version of the Newports. The best handling big cars ever made. Take a bump and settle down right away. Even without the police package.

Sorry for dragging your thread off topic. I'll stop now.

Never a problem bud, it's nice to break up all the baseball talk...

[luckymann]

I love this game - both OOTP and the game it simulates - and, as you can probably tell, spend almost all my spare time playing it. I am usually generous with my praise. But I must say that, this season in this save, OOTP has let itself down badly.

Under no circumstances mistake this as a tanty because we are going so poorly. We've had a great run and I'm relishing trying to turn things around as quickly as possible in oncoming seasons.

What I'm peeved about is how the game has treated The Babe this year and how horrendously it has nerfed his statistical output.

Ruth pitched 4 innings in 1923, his first IP since 1920. So with 5-year recalc on, as I understand it he should barely have the ratings for some spot relief appearances let alone as a full-blown starter as is the case here. Even then I wouldn't mind it so much if his offensive output was broadly in line with the historical.

Instead, he has 4 HR to his name at the halfway point.

White Sox pitcher Nip Winters has 3.

TCR is at 50, so that's got little if anything to do with it. And, sure, he could go on an absolute tear from here on in and approximate his IRL total of 41.

But I doubt it.

And for a game that prides and markets itself on statistical accuracy this combination of factors is not just disappointing to me but unacceptable.

So, you may ask, why not just wipe his pitching ratings and force him back to everyday positional playing?

Well I guess because I'm not that arrogant. I respect that the game is king and I am a mere participant in it. Somewhat perverse, I'll admit, but sue me. Plus I fear that in doing so the Yankees are handicapped by my actions.

So no dice.

What I will be doing instead is zipping through this thoroughly forgettable season with as few remarks as possible, moving on to 1924 and - hopefully - putting this anomaly in the rearview mirror as quickly as I can.

Anyway, rant over, thanks for indulging me <<STEPS OFF SOAP BOX TO THE SOUND OF CRICKETS...>>. Blame my passion if needs be. I put a bucketload of love and work into each of my saves and things like this make me very upset.

Onward and upward. To infinity and beyond.

G

[luckymann]

I kinda know how he feels... It's the Curse!!!

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

And for a game that prides and markets itself on statistical accuracy this combination of factors is not just disappointing to me but unacceptable.

The game prides itself on it's statistical accuracy on a yearly basis for the entire league. For individual players it prides itself on it's "realism" which it equates with rampant randomness (except for limiting peak HR performances and cutting down performance of PED suspects)

In consecutive years I had Tony Armas hit .335 with 44 HRs and .179 with 12 HRs. I would have been in deep trouble except the game gave some of his production to Richie Hebner who hit .280 with 31 HRs at age 34!. Three cheers for the "realism" of rampant randomness. (The guys wear the Randomness Purity Ring.)

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

The game prides itself on it's statistical accuracy on a yearly basis for the entire league. For individual players it prides itself on it's "realism" which it equates with rampant randomness (except for limiting peak HR performances and cutting down performance of PED suspects)

In consecutive years I had Tony Armas hit .335 with 44 HRs and .179 with 12 HRs. I would have been in deep trouble except the game gave some of his production to Richie Hebner who hit .280 with 31 HRs at age 34!. Three cheers for the "realism" of rampant randomness. (The guys wear the Randomness Purity Ring.)

I've thought on this some more, come back to Earth a bit in my dudgeon, but maintain the premise nonetheless.

There is no doubt I have brought some of this on myself by introducing NeL players without adapting the LTMs for the league, intensifying the statistical compression that is part of how the game has to work, one I fully recognise. Making things even more challenging in this regard is a strange phenomenon in this save with these NeL players whereby their contact ratings almost uniformly gravitate (lower) while their power ratings increase.

So from 1924 onward I will be making some changes.

I have deemed 1940 as a good middle ground for LTMs whereby HR numbers are up without an unacceptable blowout in ERA (roughly 0.5). I will be using this year in 1924 and, if all goes well, continuing to do so until 1940, by which point things will hopefully have found the middle ground I seek.

Secondly, at the end of each season I will be retweaking the ratings for those NeL players whose profiles have become unrealistic, ticking contact up and power down. Not much, just in line with their historical equivalent.

From the off, this has been one of those odd seasons you occasionally get with OOTP. The game tried to give Eppa Rixey a career-ending injury (which I reversed), and various other anomalous things have happened. Plus the stat output, while collectively in line with the IRL, has been incredibly flat across the board with few outliers.

As I said, I am looking forward to putting 1923 in the past and incredibly hopeful that it was just a one-off concatenation of circumstances. Fingers crossed these other changes help get things back on track.

[Brad K]

The game should be performing based on the ratings of the players in the league not on what was produced by the historical players that year. It's not just things like you are doing. Someone pointed out one year Ruth and Gerhig had somewhere around half the ALs home runs. So if those guys were injured on opening day OOTP would bump the ratings of the guys who were active to achieve the league historical amount of HRs.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

The game should be performing based on the ratings of the players in the league not on what was produced by the historical players that year. It's not just things like you are doing. Someone pointed out one year Ruth and Gerhig had somewhere around half the ALs home runs. So if those guys were injured on opening day OOTP would bump the ratings of the guys who were active to achieve the league historical amount of HRs.

I'm not quite so down on the concept of LTMs. In this save - up until now - I have been really happy with what's been happening. Mainly because I have very tempered expectations with regard to absolute accuracy. To dredge up poor old Roger Maris, I don't really care that he doesn't hit 61 in '61 999 times out of 1000 because I acknowledge that this was a complete and utter outlier season for him that is nigh on impossible to recreate without nerfing many others a la The Butterfly Effect. But if, as is the case here with Ruth, he is sitting at 7 HR after 90 games in a season where he historically hit 40+, then nobody can tell me something isn't amiss. Again, I believe this has been caused by the fact that the game has mistakenly returned his pitcher ratings to anomalously high levels. Smoky Joe Wood - who is on my squad - has had the same thing happen. It is erroneous, ergo a bug.

That said, I do believe the LTM logic is flawed and the sweet spot lies somewhere between where it currently is and where you want it to be. This all stems from how the game has been marketed, the holy grail of statistical accuracy in the most general of senses over the longer-term so that sites like BBRef do things like they did in 2020 and use OOTP to simulate the full season that was shortened IRL, increasing awareness of the game and, more importantly, sales. It is, at its most basic level, a pitch.

Even if the current use of LTMs remains in place I firmly believe some clear. instruction of how to circumvent it in various ways should form part of the conversation and be included in the manual, thereby giving people various options and the knowledge of how to implement them as desired. "Fog of war" is one thing. Mis- and disinformation is another. And I believe that too often the devs lean toward the latter to protect the rep and "integrity' of the product. Even more so since the takeover.

I also - FWIW - believe you should be given the option to show the season from which you have chosen LTMs to be the one applied in the Historical Accuracy analysis at season's end, as opposed to now where it simply benchmarks the stats from the save against the year in which it was set.

Finally, an important point. The combined use of recalc and dev - as I am doing here - seems to be problematic, with the two being somewhat at cross purposes with each other. I had been warned about this, but need the dev on because of the problems with NeL player ratings. So, again, I am not using the game in the exact way it was designed to be used, which I believe to be a contributing factor to some of what I'm seeing.

[Brad K]

I'm really not much concerned about the Maris issue except that a person doing a single season replay has a reasonable expectation he'll hit close to 61. The reason Maris came up is his ratings were the proof that "Real Stats" is a lie. And it took quite an effort to drag that out of them.

Have you looked at Ruth's real ratings in the editor? I was assuming up to now his low HR output was due to randomness. Surely they couldn't have him rating low enough his current performance matches his ratings. Or could they?

You're right about lack of instruction on how to use LTMs. Most of the game is Assembly Required, Instructions Not Included. It didn't become public until recently that Real Stats aren't real stats. And I haven't seen any answer to the question of what park factors are used to created neutralized stats.

I always play recalc with dev and it's the default for multi season games. I kind of see it that dev provides some variation from historical while recalc keeps it plausible so Tim Foli doesn't make the Hall of Fame. Seriously, I saw that in one of my early dev only games. He won the batting championship a few times too.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

I'm really not much concerned about the Maris issue except that a person doing a single season replay has a reasonable expectation he'll hit close to 61. The reason Maris came up is his ratings were the proof that "Real Stats" is a lie. And it took quite an effort to drag that out of them.

Have you looked at Ruth's real ratings in the editor? I was assuming up to now his low HR output was due to randomness. Surely they couldn't have him rating low enough his current performance matches his ratings. Or could they?

You're right about lack of instruction on how to use LTMs. Most of the game is Assembly Required, Instructions Not Included. It didn't become public until recently that Real Stats aren't real stats. And I haven't seen any answer to the question of what park factors are used to created neutralized stats.

I always play recalc with dev and it's the default for multi season games. I kind of see it that dev provides some variation from historical while recalc keeps it plausible so Tim Foli doesn't make the Hall of Fame. Seriously, I saw that in one of my early dev only games. He won the batting championship a few times too.

Ruth's ratings are fine. 340/475/640 slash, 37 HR per 550. That gives him the full 10/10 on the scale I am using.

I don't bother with any of that other peripheral stuff too much. I refer to my saves as "fistorical", because as soon as you change one element then it is really a fictional game. Broad accuracy is really all I seek. Tim Foli as batting champ / HOFer might be stretching it...

[luckymann]

It's been a tough road for GCA having been on a pretty ordinary Phillies team most of his career. This may well get him into the Hall - we'll have to wait and see. Not sure he makes 300 given where his ratings are now, unless we see a late spurt.

[luckymann]

... breaks the single-season wins record previously held by Walter Johnson from 1912.

IRL Dazzy didn't start playing regularly until his age-31 season and he looks set to follow a similar path here.

[luckymann]

News flash - WE MAKE THE WS!!!

Sadly, this Series is for the Wooden Spoon in the NL against Cincy. We lose it, which is to say we win both games to avoid finishing last.

With those victories, we finish 70-84. This is both our worst-ever season record and lowest-ever finish. Go us.

Nothing more to say. Pictures speak a thousand words.






The Browns cruise to their 4th straight AL title by 12 games. The Cards charge home late to overrun the Robins and finally win their first NL Pennant, although it takes a 5-3 win over the Cubs in the final game to nail it down by the barest margin and set up an all-St. Louis World Series. Party time in The Lou.




George Sisler (Browns) and Bubbles Hargrave (Phillies) win the batting titles. Washington's Jack Fournier and both Brooklyn's Dazzy Vance and Dave Brown of the Cubs finish top 3 in each of the TC categories. The NL Waddell Medal should be a close-run affair this season.

Babe Ruth ends up with 11 HR...






S+ HOME

REPORTS HOME

PIRATES HOME

[luckymann]

St. Louis Browns (96-58) v St. Louis Cardinals (87-67)

Best-of-seven, Browns with the home-field advantage. That said, both clubs share Sportsmans Park.

ST. LOUIS BROWNS S+ PAGE

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS S+ PAGE

Both sides have lost their aces for the year, with Joe Williams and Andy Cooper unavailable, while the Browns will also be without veteran Eddie Collins, who tore a labrum late in the season. I think the result comes down to which version of the Cards shows up. If they play to their full potential, I think they get the prize. But this battle-hardened Browns squad will be ready to pounce should they get even the skinniest chance to do so. Either way I think it goes six or seven.

[luckymann]

Game 1 in St. Louis (AL), October 10th 1923
Urban Shocker (25-10, 3.38) v Reuben Curry (11-14, 4.31)




A blowout win for the home side who post 8 in the 5th and never look in danger of losing.

BOX SCORE


Game 2 in St. Louis (AL), October 11th 1923
Jose Mendez (8-8, 4.11) v Erskine Mayer (16-9, 3.94)
Browns lead series 1-0




All the runs come early in this one before Mayer settles down and goes the distance to give the Browns a handy 2-0 series lead. Hornsby and Frisch both very quiet so far.

BOX SCORE


Game 3 in St. Louis (NL), October 13th 1923
Juan Padron (18-14, 3.92) v Lefty Williams (19-13, 3.02)
Browns lead series 2-0




The Cards bats finally offer up some run support but it’s not enough as Sisler continues on his pillage of their pitching with a 3-5 / 3 RBI game that puts the Browns on the cusp of a sweep.

BOX SCORE


Game 4 in St. Louis (NL), October 14th 1923
Reuben Curry (0-1, 19.29) v Urban Shocker (1-0, 3.00)
Browns lead series 3-0




And just like that the Browns go back-to-back and win their third title overall as Sisler caps off one of the best individual World Series performances with a 5-hit game. Curry is brave, but can’t hang onto a 3-run lead as the Browns score late and then win it with 2 more in the 10th. Perhaps, in hindsight, they leave him in too long. But as I feared might happen, the Hyde version of the Cards was the one that came to play here.

Historically, the Browns might have been a bit of a laughing-stock, but in this save they are a beast of a club and with adds like Turkey Stearnes – who homers in this one – look set to be so for some years to come.

BOX SCORE

ST. LOUIS BROWNS WINS SERIES 4-0
SERIES MVP: George Sisler (Browns)






S+ HOME

REPORTS HOME

PIRATES HOME

[luckymann]

OK maybe I am that arrogant. Because when Ruth’s pitcher ratings return for the upcoming 1924 season, I nix them. Let’s see if I’ve completely ruined things.

We exercise Smoky Joe Wood’s option. Extend both Ralph Comstock and Oliver Marcell with 2+1 team option deals. Let Ed Warner and Carl Mays go.

Ned Hanlon, who took the Cards to the WS has decided he’s had enough and is retiring, same with A’s skipper Charlie Daugherty. Zaza Harvey, who left a position with us for the Hitting Coach role with the BoSox, was fired.

Among the playing ranks, Hippo Vaughn is the biggest retiree, and the Cubs retire #65 in his honour. He finishes with 263 wins, but his 274 losses might be a stumbling block for the HoF. Tillie Walker, Jim Doyle and Eddie Foster are really the only others of note giving the game away.

[luckymann]

AL 1923 HISTORY INDEX

NL 1923 HISTORY INDEX

AWARDS HISTORY

Heavy Johnson and Rogers Hornsby each win their 4th Wagner-Lajoie Medal, while the Waddell Medal recipients are both first-time winners, Urban Shocker of the Browns and Brooklyn's Dazzy Vance. RotY gongs go to Cleveland's Heinie Manush and Willie Kamm of the Robins.

The Sim Accuracy was all green, but with the imminent changes re LTMs, I won't bother posting this until after we return to scheduled programming.

[luckymann]

There’s really no such thing as a quick turnaround in this league, so what you need to try and do is put the blocks in place to build a better future for the club. That is precisely the motivation behind this deal.

TRADE 1 OF 3 (12/19/23)

IF Pete Kilduff and P Jose Leblanc traded to Chicago (NL) for P Dave Brown.

Count Leblanc’s drop in form last year was alarming and, at 30, I just wasn’t confident in his ability to turn things around. PK is a handy utility IF but we have plenty of cover in that part of the diamond and he was needed to get this trade over the line.

Dave won the Waddell Medal in 1921 and was runner-up again last season, in which he went 28-15 / 2.50. In other words, he’s a gun and at just 27 looks to have plenty of life left in his golden left arm.

A great trade for our club, on paper at least. Let's hope it plays out that way.