The Bucs Start Here - A Pirates Do-Over

[luckymann]

[luckymann]

Nary a Pirate in this year's squad. Tough crowd.




Earl Torgeson wins the HR Derby, the AL the ASG in a tight affair by 8 to 7 with Joe DiMaggio named MVP.

[luckymann]

The Cards are having one of the best seasons in franchise history, but in true Cardinals style have chosen to do so just as everything is coming together for Brooky, who are just monstering it and look likely to win the NL in a canter.

Still many rivers to cross, however, and games like this one from Bruce Edwards will only further toughen their resolve to the cause.

[luckymann]

Difficult to put into words what has transpired both around the league and with regard to our club specifically these past two months. Singular is perhaps the most appropriate adjective I can use. Hard core is another phrase that readily comes to mind.

Here's how things stand as we enter August.





You might be looking at those screenshots and thinking "one game over 500, metrics right in the middle of the diddle - what's that crazy old fool talkin' about singular for?"

Perhaps the monthly results will paint a more accurate picture.




So those relatively innocuous monthly breakdowns of 13-15 for June and 17-12 for July include a 5-13 run in mid-June, a 10-game win string as part of a 16-3 run in July and a 5-and-counting current losing streak that includes perhaps the worst loss in franchise history - a 17-4 mauling by the Dodgers just the day before last.

A wild old ride indeed.

Our hitting, while prone to prolonged bouts of inconsistency, has generally been solid. Kiner and Elliott have lost a little on previous years but nevertheless continue to produce. Wertz and Boone are each living up to their billing. The addition of Pafko has been a good one. Guys like Vollmer and Batts are coming along nicely.




The same cannot be said for our pitching, with our staff almost to a man having regressed or disappointed. Hutchinson's ERA+ currently sits at a putrid 83, with Sain also worse than league average. Masterson has finally worn out his welcome and is cooling his heels at AAA, with Houtteman into the spin. Still a pretty young group, so hopefully all is not lost, but we need to arrest this pattern post haste. Our D is NOT helping matters - even though we have a slightly positive ZR to this point, our efficiency is in the toilet - not great when your starters WHIPs are through the roof. It's odd, because on paper we line up pretty well with the glove. We just aren't getting it done the way we need to.




A simply fascinating narrative is unfolding in the NL, with interest high as the Dodgers make a bid for their first-ever playoff run and the Cards - who have themselves made only the solitary appearance in 1923 - trying to catch them. For a wee while it looks like the Boys of Summer are going to run away with it, but they get the wobbles and just moonwalk a bit back to the pack. Eight games is a nice break, but no gimme from there with all the attendant pressure. The next couple weeks should prove crucial.

Things are only slightly less dramatic over in the junior circuit, with the Yanks just a half-game ahead of the Red Sox, with the surprising Tigers - who are looking for their first go-around in the Fall Classic since 1934 - just one game further back.




News, Leaders and Top 20s

We look all but guaranteed of at least one Triple Crown winner this season, with Eddie Lopat, Stan Musial and Ewell Blackwell all in the hunt.








Monthly Award Winners

June

American League

• Batter – Ron Northey (Tigers): 407 / 5 HR / 22 RBI
• Pitcher – Tex Hughson (Red Sox): 3-0 / 2.11 / 26 K / 42.2 IP
• Rookie – Richie Ashburn (Browns): 368 / 0 HR / 15 RBI

National League

• Batter – Stan Musial (Cardinals): 375 / 6 HR / 22 RBI
• Pitcher – Preacher Roe (Dodgers): 4-0 / 1.86 / 29 K / 48.1 IP
• Rookie – Bob Rush (Cubs): 3-2 / 2.33 / 20 K / 46.1 IP

July

American League

• Batter – Vern Stephens (Browns): 411 / 6 HR / 26 RBI
• Pitcher – Eddie Lopat (Yankees): 5-1 / 2.89 / 34 K / 56 IP
• Rookie – Vern Bickford (White Sox): 4-2 / 3.07 / 18 K / 41 IP

National League

• Batter – Willard Brown (Reds): 383 / 7 HR / 29 RBI
• Pitcher – Johnny Schmitz (Cubs): 4-0 / 2.06 / 11 K / 39.1 IP
• Rookie – Bob Rush (Cubs): 4-2 / 3.05 / 22 K / 44.1 IP

Milestones and Observations of Note

• More trouble in Philly as Marv Breuer of the A’s has his season cut short by a back injury.
• Shoulder surgery knocks out Boston’s Jack Kramer for the rest of the year, as does an elbow injury for Brooklyn’s Cliff “Lefty” Chambers and a partial UCL tear for Tex Hughson of the Red Sox has a similar result.

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[luckymann]

Most Batters Faced Per Game (Minimum 10 Appearances)

[luckymann]

It has taken 48 long and futile seasons to be able to say this, so I thought it deserved a special post:

DODGERS
CLINCH
NL
PENNANT!!!!

[luckymann]

The diametric opposite of the year before as we fairly limp home, operating on fumes by the end of it, to finish mid-standings at 78-76.





Those metrics are pretty much what you'd expect for a team that finishes one game away from 500 and tied for 4th. Still, there are positives to be taken from the season. Wertz and Boone have a combined 7 WAR debut campaign and each should get some RoY votes. Pafko is a gun and we're looking forward to having a full season from him next year and beyond. Our second-stringers all contribute to varying degrees with just one player finishing less than RV on the year. The pitching hangs tough and are, for the most part, still pre-peak with a couple more on their way up.





While, as you have seen, the Dodgers clinch early and get to cruise on in, the Red Sox are forced to draw on all their reserves of intestinal fortitude to just see off a gutsy effort by the Tigers and give themselves a chance for five straight Championships - something not even we have ever managed to achieve.




Stan Musial gets one of the narrowest Triple Crown wins ever, sneaking home narrowly in each category. Meanwhile, the AL Batting Title race is one of the tightest in history, with Dale Mitchell awarded it on pips after he, Al Dark and Ted Williams each finish with an official mark of 341.

Both Eddie Lopat and Ewell Blackwell win 20 on the dot, with Hal Newhouser almost getting himself another TC win as he finishes top 3 across the stat cats.

One milestone I missed last year was Wild Bill Wright passing Ty Cobb to become the all-time stolen base leader. He currently sits on 807.


Final Top 20s





Final Leaders




Monthly Award Winners

August

American League

• Batter – Ted Williams (Red Sox): 406 / 9 HR / 22 RBI
• Pitcher – Mel Parnell (Red Sox): 5-0 / 1.70 / 18 K / 47.2 IP
• Rookie – Stan Lopata (Senators): 355 / 5 HR / 20 RBI

National League

• Batter – Johnny Mize (Cubs): 364 / 7 HR / 28 RBI
• Pitcher – Mickey Haefner (Dodgers): 6-0 / 2.39 / 20 K / 49 IP
• Rookie – Bob Rush (Cubs): 3-2 / 3.13 / 25 K / 46 IP

September

American League

• Batter – Ferris Fain (Athletics): 393 / 1 HR / 11 RBI
• Pitcher – Howie Pollet (Tigers): 5-0 / 1.55 / 21 K / 40.2 IP
• Rookie – Ted Gray (White Sox): 3-1 / 1.12 / 13 K / 32 IP

National League

• Batter – Roy Campanella (Dodgers): 390 / 9 HR / 23 RBI
• Pitcher – Dutch Leonard (Reds): 4-2 / 1.74 / 12 K / 51.2 IP
• Rookie – Vic Wertz 337 / 5 HR / 18 RBI

Milestones and Observations of Note

• 2000 hits: Johnny Mize, Cecil Travis
• The Red Sox extend 2B Bobby Doerr’s contract by 7 years at a cost of $280k. That takes him well past his IRL retirement in 1951, so I’ll be interested to see how those final few years play out. 3-year recalc should help a bit.

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[luckymann]

With a few of them figuring in the upcoming WS, I thought I'd jjust take a minute to show you where the NeL guys who eventually made it to the MLB are situated, stats-wise, under the integrated settings and curated edits I've been using. All of the curation is finished now, so the game will decide what happens with each from here.

I've included a link to their respective Stats+ page if you want a deeper dive.

Willard Brown, who barely got a chance at the MLB level IRL, was the first to come through in 1935 and is on his way to Cooperstown.




Campy was next, a couple years later, and he'll be leading the Dodgers' charge against the Sox. IRL the current 1948 season was his MLB rookie year, so he comes into his historical period with a nice little head start. On top of his 240ish MLB homers, he has just shy of 170 in-game. Given the expected extension to his career, he should reach 400 or maybe even 450 with a bit of luck.




1937 saw three more make their debut - Bus / Buzz Clarkson, who IRL would only play a handful of games at age 37 in 1952; Sam Jethroe, who got a bit more of a go but was still unfairly held back until well past his prime; and Monte Irvin, who was IRL an age-30 MLB rookie in 1949.

Bus has had a nice little 40 bWAR career and still has a few years left. He has also been on six of the past seven Championship teams and is looking to tack on another one with the BoSox this season!




The Jet of course spent some time with us and has enjoyed a decent enough MLB career that should finish in excess of 50 bWAR.




Relatively speaking, Mr Murder arguably gets the biggest incremental lift from this save with the exception of Campy, who joined it as a 16-yo. With next season being his historical rookie year, we can see exactly how much of a head start he's got. However, he only hit 99 career MLB homers, so I expect him to finish well behind Roy in that stat cat - perhaps around the 350 mark. With already more than 50 bWAR to his name and 20 or so expected from his MLB years, you'd think Monte a good bet for the HoF.




The final two to join this timeline were actually the first two on the historical one. Larry Doby joined this save in 1942 as a rawboned teenager. Now the two timelines have become conjoined, and - with around 50 more bWAR expected, to go with his 22 so far - he is another who looks headed to C-Town and should land somewhere between 350 and 400 with regard to HR.




Which, of course, leaves only the Great Man Jackie. This timeline gives him a couple years' jump on the historical and I expect he'll push for 3000 hits and go close to 100 bWAR all things considered.




Once all of these guys have retired I'll give a more comprehensive NeL wrap.

G

[luckymann]

Most HRs in Debut Season

[luckymann]

Brooklyn Dodgers (96-58) v Boston Red Sox (91-63)
Best-of-seven, Dodgers with the home-field advantage.


BROOKLYN DODGERS S+ PAGE

BOSTON RED SOX S+ PAGE

The most eagerly anticipated World Series for some time and one that will, whichever way it falls, be an historic one – either the Sox become the first club to win five straight titles, or the Dodgers win their franchise’s first.

So, can they do it? The Dodgers, I mean.

Well you can’t say this has come out of the blue. This Dodgers group is perhaps the most accurately representative of its historical counterpart that we’ve ever seen – and that IRL group won six pennants in this ten-year span (1947-56). If a 19-win improvement from 1947 does somewhat beggar belief, one only need look at the group and how it has all come together to be peaking en masse.

So they are primed.

I’m not sure that means they win this time around, as the Sox are just such a top-notch bunch. But we at Pittsburgh certainly regard the Dodgers and, to a lesser extent, the Cardinals as having dynastic qualities about them and see any and every path to success over the next decade as passing through them along the way.

I’ll be just as riveted as anyone to this contest.

[luckymann]

Our AAA Wilkes-Barre boys have a stirring stretch run to come out of the clouds and claim their place in the World Series, but are no match for a fine Austin unit who claim the club's 3rd Championship - all of them coming this decade.

[Pelican]

Originally Posted by luckymann

With a few of them figuring in the upcoming WS, I thought I'd jjust take a minute to show you where the NeL guys who eventually made it to the MLB are situated, stats-wise, under the integrated settings and curated edits I've been using. All of the curation is finished now, so the game will decide what happens with each from here.

I've included a link to their respective Stats+ page if you want a deeper dive.

Once all of these guys have retired I'll give a more comprehensive NeL wrap.

G

This is super useful in comparing to my Negro League import of players - also “curated” - in 1938. The ratings are hard to translate, as I use 1-100, and yours are 1-20 I gather? I made adjustments, based in part on the ample stats for head-to-head matchups with barnstorming MLB teams, generally in October.

[luckymann]

Game 1 in Brooklyn

Preacher Roe (15-10, 3.15) v Mel Parnell (15-6, 3.60)

A tantalising matchup to get things started, with veteran lefty Preacher Roe taking on second-year player Mel Parnell – who actually spent a portion of the year at AAA before returning white-hot to the fold.

And it is the more experienced Roe and his Brooky cohorts who come out on top, albeit not in the most convincing fashion as they chase Parnell early and get it out to 8-1 with Nicholson and Sauer each bombing one out, but then let the Red Sox back into it with a 4-run 6th. Dutch Dietz comes in to steady the ship for the home side, pitching 2+ scoreless for an 8-5 final.

Game 2 in Brooklyn

Mickey Haefner (19-11, 3.78) v Ellis Kinder (12-2, 3.09)

Dodgers lead series 1-0

A couple fascinating storylines presenting themselves here in Game 2, with Mickey Haefner taking on Ellis Kinder. Haefner, you may recall, was with us last season and at age 34 didn’t show enough to be extended, despite a fine WS performance in his one start. Yet, here he is, back in the Big Dance with a stellar 19-win campaign under his belt and a not unreasonable hope for some love come awards season. Kinder is the poster-boy for late-bloomers, entering the league in 1946 as an age-31 rookie and proving pretty handy so far and two WS rings to his credit already.

And, while both are fantastic in this one, neither gets the W as an epic battle unfolds. With the Dodgers carrying a 1-0 lead into the 7th, the Boston bats finally come alive, tying and then passing their hosts with 3 runs. The Dodgers respond with 3 of their own in the bottom 8th, but Bus Clarkson ties it again in the 9th with a solo shot, with both BPs now deployed. But Boston’s Joe Page gets in a twist and Brooky walks it off 5-4 on a bases-loaded sac fly by another former Pirate, Babe Young. I needn’t tell you that Ebbets Field was rocking then!

Game 3 in Boston

Doyle Lade (8-7, 5.68) v E. Smith (16-6, 4.20)

Dodgers lead series 2-0

For mine, it is this element of the home-field advantage in short series – the likelihood of going 2-0 up / 0-2 down – rather than the extra game that carries the most benefit. The Sox, as good as they are and as much as they’ve won, cannot help but have in the back of their minds the possibility of their opponents clinching on their turf. It can toughen your resolve, but it can also put you on the defensive.

It is an unexpected figure who stands in the way of the Dodgers going 3-0 up in this one, with Doyle Lade only in this position because of the horror run the Sox have experienced this year with injuries to their SPs. He and his cohorts will need to find a way to beat lefty Eddie Smith, who has been a revelation this year with 16 wins against just 6 losses.

And the fairy-tale script continues as the Dodgers blow Boston away with a real statement win that can perhaps also be seen as a metaphorical baton-change, if you will. Gil Hodges belts two homers and drives in 5 to lead the Brooklyn assault that stakes them to a 10-0 lead before eventually finishing 12-5. Campanella is another star for the visitors with 5 hits, while Robinson and Furillo each go 3-5 with a double and a ribbie.

Game 4 in Boston

Spud Chandler (4-6, 5.55) v Dick Newsome (16-6, 4.95)

Dodgers lead series 3-0

A slow start costs the Dodgers a sweep but they never stop coming and the Red Sox will be concerned at how many hits and runs they are giving up. Still, thanks mainly to a 5-run 1st helped by a grand slam by Bill Rigney off Dodgers starter Dick Newsome, the Sox stay alive and remind the Brooky boys that only four wins get you the prize. The Dodgers, on the other hand, will take heart in their strong finish to the game that sees them come all the way back to 9-7 before just coming up short.

Game 5 in Boston

Ed Head (0-0, 0.00) v Preacher Roe (1-0, 7.11)

Dodgers lead series 3-1

A most unexpected development for this one, with Parnell unable to take his start and the virtually unused Ed Head called in to replace him. In the end, however, I doubt even Parnell could have done anything here as Roe dominates and the Brooklyn fans’ dreams becomes reality. The Preacher allows only 2 late runs on 5 hits, by which point the game has been run and won. Campy is named a deserving MVP.

Look out world, the Dodgers have arrived.

BROOKLYN WINS SERIES 4-1

SERIES MVP: Roy Campanella (Brooklyn)

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[LansdowneSt]

After 48 years of waiting, I'll let that Red Sox loss slide. Good for 'dem Bums...

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Pelican

This is super useful in comparing to my Negro League import of players - also “curated” - in 1938. The ratings are hard to translate, as I use 1-100, and yours are 1-20 I gather? I made adjustments, based in part on the ample stats for head-to-head matchups with barnstorming MLB teams, generally in October.

PM me your email address if you want to discuss further bud, I have done a bunch of work on the NeLers that is ongoing that I'm happy to share / compare and contrast methodologies and philosophies, whatever.

Here are the settings in place for this save.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by LansdowneSt

After 48 years of waiting, I'll let that Red Sox loss slide. Good for 'dem Bums...

It's "This Year" seven years early...

[luckymann]

Just two skippers removed from the helm this year – Pelayo Chacon from the White Sox and Howie Shanks from the Phillies.

We void Peanuts Lowrey’s final year and send Tommy Hughes, Clyde Kluttz, Hugh East, Johnny Johnson and Pinky Woods to arbitration.

Retiring players include Claude Passeau, Mort Cooper, Tiny Bonham, Bucky Walters, Rudy York, Ed Durham and the mighty Hammerin’ Hank Greenberg, who leaves the game with 479 HR – 4th most all-time as of right now. There’s also a special group I’ll deal with of their own accord in the next post.

[luckymann]

And so, as this save enters into the post-integration phase of history, it's quite poignant that four of the biggest NeL names are all calling time on their careers.

I get quite emotional about this, as their presence signifies my own journey with regard to learning about the Negro Leagues and their wonderful, tragic heroes. I knew next to nothing about them when I started this save - and still do, at least compared to all there is to know. But my journey in this regard continues, even as these legendary-bordering-on-mythical players disappear from view.

Josh Gibson

At 37, it was the all-but-disappearance of his defensive ratings that spelt the end for Josh. He still hit 329 in limited appearances for the Tigers this year, but with no DH in the end those opportunities becoming more difficult to procure. 92 bWAR, a lifetime 308 BA, 352 career HR, 3 Wagner-Lajoie Medals and 3 Championship wins should earn him a plaque in five years' time without any problems at all. Our organisation has retired his #16 to honour the 9 seasons he spent with us as part of that legendary late 1930s-early 1940s group.

Willie Wells

Another one-time Buc, El Diablo should join his buddy Josh in Cooperstown first time around, one would think. Willie has enjoyed one of the longest careers I can remember, joining the league way back in 1924 and playing thru his age-42 season in 1947. There were no takers for him this year, and he retires third in all-time ABs with 11281, 5th in runs with 1853, 5th in hits with 3180, 7th in total bases with 4962, 3rd with 611 doubles, as well as amassing 303 HR, 1623 RBI and a colossal 110 bWAR or near enough to.

Not sure either Buck Leonard or Ray Dandridge will get to C-Town, but both can still be extremely proud of their achievements in the game.

[luckymann]

AL 1948 HISTORY INDEX

NL 1948 HISTORY INDEX

AWARDS HISTORY


Not a surprise winner to be seen this year, with unanimous Wagner-Lajoies to Ted Williams (his fifth) and Stan Musial (third). Repeat Johnson-Waddell Awards to Hal Newhouser and Ewell Blackwell, number three for each. RoYs to Richie Ashburn and our own Vic Wertz, with Bud Byerly and Bill Sayles each nabbing his first Paige Plate.


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[luckymann]

It might not jump off the page as such, but I see this as a really strong FA signing for us as we lock down Bob Kennedy on a 4+1 deal for $70k all up.




The plan next year is to play Paf at 3B and put Clyde Vollmer, who has really come on nicely, in as our everyday CF. Having Bob on board gives us a bunch of corner IF flexibility and bolsters our OF, slotting perfectly into and beefing up the existing player mix.

Mighty happy with this one.