The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

A step in the right direction...



The Rays kicked off their 14th straight season in the playoffs in fine fashion, but they know it's still a long road to finally claim that first World Series title (both in this save and in franchise history). Geronimo Satiro's 3-run homer in the 3rd was the big hit and Carlos Duran picked up where he left off in the regular season, even if he could only go 5 thanks to throwing 97 pitches. Things got dicey in the 9th when Fernando Perez made a mess and Danis Correa made an even bigger mess, allowing 2 men to score and bringing as the tying run to the plate none other than former Ray Jeffry Rosa, who had 43 homers this season, but he got Rosa looking to end the game. Aaron Ashby will get the call for Game 2.

In the other ALDS:

[Art Deco]

Uh...



Oof. Not much to analyze here - this was the worst playoff loss I've suffered in hundreds of such games over the seasons in all of my Rays saves and it only counts as one. Emiliano Teodo will try to get the taste of this game out of our mouths in Game 3 back in Baltimore.

Elsewhere:

[Art Deco]

Talk about turnabouts...



Two days after being demolished at home 17-0 by the Orioles in Game 2 the Rays returned the favor, bombing Baltimore 14-0 at Camden Yards in Game 3 to move within one game of the ALCS. Subaru Nakashima was the hero as his 2-run homer in the first set the done and his bases-clearing double put the Rays in double digits as he amassed 6 RBI on the day. Emiliano Teodo did his usual thing where he pitched with traffic but got out of it. Brock Porter will take the hill tomorrow as the Rays look to close out the series.

In the other ALDS:



And in yesterday's NLDS action:

[Art Deco]

Movin' on...



Thanks to big games from ALDS MVP Mike Brown and his closest competitor for the award Owen Paino (who belted 2 HR today) the Rays are moving on to the ALCS after an 8-3 win over Baltimore. Geronimo Satiro hit a 458-ft moon shot to CF to start the scoring, and they kept tacking on from there. They overcame a shaky start from Brock Porter who struggled with his control, but a parade of Rays relievers kept the Orioles off the board for the final 5 2/3 innings. Who will they face? See below.



So it'll be Seattle whom the Rays play for a trip to the World Series. Meanwhile it was kind of an oddity that Paino was named the #2 star of the day to Brown's #3 but Brown was named player of the game in the box score.

[Art Deco]

And the LCS field is complete as San Diego will face St. Louis in the NL.

[Art Deco]

Not great....



A disastrous 4th inning and a general lack of hitting led to the Rays dropping the ALCS opener at home to Seattle 5-2. Carlos Duran had his issues in that inning but they were exacerbated by errors from Cody Schrier and Mike Brown and the Mariners did all their scoring in that inning and it was all unearned, enough to beat the Rays on a day when the bats could only squeeze out 2 runs. Aaron Ashby will try to right the ship tomorrow and keep the Rays from going to Seattle down 0-2.

[Art Deco]

Way down in the hole...



Well they had a chance this time, but the end result was the same: another Seattle win and a 2-0 series deficit heading to the Pacific Northwest. Things started poorly with another disastrous inning, this time Aaron Ashby walking three in the 1st and letting Yordan Alvarez clear the bases with a double to make it 3-0 as the lefty faltered for the second straight start this postseason (he was on the mound for the 17-0 Baltimore win in the ALDS). The Rays fought back though and mounted the most dramatic of rallies in the bottom of the 9th to tie it on three straight singles after two were out and nobody on. Danis Correa got through two innings of relief on only 12 pitches, but put two on to start the 12th and was fatigued, and although Fernando Perez got a double play, he then gave up three straight hits to let Seattle score 3 runs and the bats had no answer in the bottom of the frame. So we're going to need a miracle to avoid another empty postseason and it's going to have to start with Emiliano Teodo getting the ball at T-Mobile Park.

In the NLCS lid-lifter:

[Art Deco]

Dead in the water...



A truly pathetic performance on offense (offensive, to say the least) doomed the Rays to a nearly-insurmountable 0-3 hole in the ALCS as they lost another marathon heartbreaker 1-0 to the Mariners. The record will show Seattle won this game when Fernando Costume wild-pitched the winner home from the 3rd with 2 out in the 13th, but it was more like the Rays lost it with a horrendous day at the plate, mustering only 5 hits through 13 innings while fanning 18 times. And eyes turn to the man who could be MVP in the AL for the second straight year - Fernando Tatis Jr. who was 0-5 today with 3 whiffs, is 1-15 with 9 whiffs in this series, and is 4-30 with 0 HR and 1 RBI this postseason. But he has plenty of company, especially in this series. The Rays did have a brief glimmer of hope in the top of the 13th when Ben Schmidt (a season-long disappointment who was 1-for-18 himself in these playoffs) tripled with two out, but Joe Edwards was strikeout victim #18 and Seattle took the game shortly thereafter, negating another outstanding performance from the Rays bullpen. At this point of these recaps I always say "it's up to (tomorrow's starting pitcher)" to do something but with the way the bats have been going it's really up to them to support Brock Porter tomorrow and keep the season alive.

In yesterday's NLCS Game 2:



Not much scoring in that series either as it's looking like a west coast World Series.

[Art Deco]

Still alive, just barely...



If somehow the Rays pull off the comeback and win this series it'll go down as the greatest Houdini act in baseball history as they were two outs away from being shut out for the second straight game and swept out of the ALCS before rallying to take Game 4 3-2 from the Mariners. The hero today of course was Zion Rose, who had one postseason at-bat this year coming into today but came off the bench to deliver a game-tying 2-run homer in the 9th, and then Fernando Tatis Jr. finally woke from his postseason slumber to homer in the 10th to win it. We did lose closer Danis Correa, who got the win, to bone chips in his elbow and his Rays career is likely over as he was a free agent rental this year anyway. The good news is that we have our ace Carlos Duran going tomorrow and if we can bring the series back to the Trop, who knows?

Also getting into the win column for the first time was St. Louis, although their situation is much less dire:

[Art Deco]

It's over...



So in the end all yesterday's miracle comeback did was prolong the agony for a day as the Rays were unceremoniously dumped from the playoffs in a 9-2 loss to Seattle. Carlos Duran was most certainly not the ace he'd been all season, suffering an uncharacteristic bout of wildness today which saw him walk 8 Mariners in total. He had managed to largely get away with the first 6 through 4 innings allowing only one run but the dam burst in the 5th when he walked two more and loaded the bases with nobody out, and Fernando Perez poured fuel on the fire and Seattle had scored 7 times by the time the inning (and the series) was up. It was another bitter playoff disappointment in this save which has seen the Rays make the postseason every time in its 10 years only to come up short at one point or another. Back to the drawing board for 2033.

Meanwhile we have a real series going on in the NLCS:

[Art Deco]

We left off with the series tied 2-2, and here's how it played out the rest of the way:



It was a Home Field Advantage series as the Padres took all 4 of their home games to ultimately prevail in 7 with a couple of former Rays (Taj Bradley and Kevin Alcantara) coming up big when it counted, so we'll have the west coast World Series of Seattle vs San Diego after all.

[Art Deco]

This set up a winner-take-all Game 7:



It was a pitchers' duel through 6 before it appeared San Diego was on their way when Dylan Cupp belted a 3-run homer in the top of the 7th to put them up 5-2, but the Mariners answered in bottom half of the frame with a bases-clearing double to tie it, and then veteran Austin Riley slammed a 2-run shot to left to provide the winning margin. Another grizzled vet, Andres Munoz, closed it out over the final two innings getting the tying run at the plate with 2 out in the 9th on a strikeout to start bedlam in the Pacific Northwest as the Mariners won their first-ever World Championship in their 56th year of existence.

[Art Deco]

It was quite a ride last year, with a team hovering just over .500 at the midway point of the season before going on a complete tear in the second half to end up with 100 wins and the best record in baseball. Unfortunately as it always does in this save, it came to a crashing halt in the playoffs as the Rays were bounced from the postseason by the Mariners in the ALCS after completely forgetting how to hit. 2033 will be a bit of a challenge to repeat as 100-game winners as a massive chunk of the pitching staff are free agents and we have another couple of holes to fill. But that's why I get paid the big bucks as GM.

We made a trade right when the window opened:



Schrier of course has been our starting SS the last two seasons but he dropped off dramatically last season, especially in the field, dropping from 4.1 WAR to 1.4. He also lost 100 points of OPS at the plate and was expected to command $13M in arbitration. We also have potential replacements for him which I'll get to below. In return we get the interesting Contreras, a "catcher". The quotation marks are because he's only rated 40 at the position but he swings a mean bat: rated 55 contact/power/eye (with 60 power potential) and he went 21-for-41 in a September cup of coffee with Milwaukee and slugged .902 with 4 homers. He was 304/389/529 in AAA as well so he can hit.

The position-by-position outlook going into the offseason:

C: Samuel Basallo was an outright disappointment and we're still on the hook for two more seasons of him at $15M, so he'll be back and we just have to hope he bounces back to the numbers he put in Baltimore. Zion Rose backs him up and was a little better last year than his abysmal 2031 which led to Basallo's acquisition and then there's the aforementioned Contreras who just came over in trade and could be the backup or DH.

1B: Mike Brown will return. He too was down a bit last year but is still young.

2B: Owen Paino had a breakout season, hitting 287/358/458 and earning 3.5 WAR. He's an All-Star in the making. He may cede some ABs against LHP to Bryce Clavon but he did hit .327 against lefties in limited action so the thought is to let him play against everyone.

SS: Schrier is now gone so the front-runner is Edgar Quezada, claimed on waivers in early September. Quezada was brilliant with the glove, a +3.5 ZR in only 48 games and good for 1.7 WAR. His bat is decent but he does struggle some against RHP while mashing lefties. Clavon can play some here too.

3B: Fernando Tatis Jr had a second straight MVP-caliber season even if he did go AWOL in the playoffs. The big story was that he handled the move back to the dirt quite deftly, playing average defense at the hot corner.

IF: Clavon as mentioned will be the primary infield backup but we do have power-hitting rookie Pepin Schwartz (46 HR between Durham and Montgomery) waiting in the wings but he's blocked by Paino.

LF: Joe Edwards played most of the season and he was OK, not great at 251/308/417 and good for 2.2 WAR. I have hopes he'll get better too and is going to be 27. Dean Moss, who had big MiLB power season and showed some pop with the big club, is pushing him though.

CF: Subaru Nakashima showed that his first year in American baseball wasn't a fluke when he came back and posted another big season, this time with 6 WAR. Let's see what he does for season #3.

RF: Ben Schmidt. Probably our biggest disappointment as he looked like a future superstar when we acquired him from Toronto in mid-2031 and put up 6.4 WAR total that season. This year he precipitously dropped to only 1.2 WAR and put up a 225/295/402 season with 22 HR. His defense remained excellent, though and like Brown and Basallo, I'm hoping for positive regression in 2033.

OF: We're stuck with Mason Auer's $10.6M contract for two more years so he'll continue to give us speed and defense off the bench without a lot of hitting. Moss also could find a role as might Brailer Guerrero, who found himself back at Durham in favor of Moss about 2/3 of the way into the season.

DH: Geronimo Satiro had a decent rookie season with 27 HR and 80 RBI but he needs to improve on his .244 BA.

Rotation: The unsung story of last season's second-half renaissance was the pitching, and unfortunately most of what made it great is gone to free agency. Top starter Carlos Duran, #2 guy Aaron Ashby and Brock Porter, successfully transitioned from the bullpen to be the #5 guy, are all free agents.This leaves us with Emaliano Teodo and Garrett Lambert as the only returning rotation members so we're going to need to do a lot of work to rebuild it. Porter might be the most likely to be re-signed as he'll command less than Duran or Ashby. Internal options include Chang-hyeok Kim, who always seems to lose the job when given a chance to start, and Nate Chapman, who came off surgery last year and only has 40 stuff but good control and movement. Both are 5th starters at best. Campbell Ellis, in our rotation last year before tearing his rotator cuff, is a free agent as well.

Bullpen: The back end of the pen also takes a hit as closer Danis Correa and lefty setup guy Garrett Crochet are free agents. The good news is we still have some quality arms like one-time (and future?) closer Victor Vodnik, Juan Nunez, Fernando Costume, Yeuris Jimenez and Fernando Perez. We also claimed lefty Shawn Scott on waivers at the end of the season and he should make a good replacement for Crochet. Another arm or two would be good though.

Here's how the salary situation sits, with owner Stu Sternberg allowing me $190M of payroll:



First of all Garces will be non-tendered so lop his $18.5M projection off the total. This would put the returning payroll at $153M, giving us roughly $37M to play with.

So the tl;dr offseason goals:

1) Find at least 2, more likely 3, starting pitchers.
2) Find some arms for the bullpen.

The offense returns in toto except Schrier so any bats we add will be opportunistic pickups. Otherwise it's Operation Rotation this winter.

[Art Deco]

Retirements:

Notables: Tarik Skubal, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Berrios, Justin Steele, Pete Alonso, Cal Raleigh, Pablo Lopez, Casey Mize, Matt Chapman, Mookie Betts, Luis Robert, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Correa.

Former Rays: Josh Fleming, Yoniel Curet, Luke Raley, Yu Chang, Nathaniel Lowe.

Awards Season:

Gold Gloves: No Rays winners.

Reliever of the Year: A surprise AL winner:



In an incredibly close 3-way vote Porter came out on top (I voted him 3rd behind Kinney). Considering extending him but he's going to want $12-13M/year. The NL winner was Philly's Jhoan Duran, off a 40-save, 2.39 ERA, 95 whiffs in 60 IP season.

Silver Slugger: Our Fernando Tatis Jr won the AL award at 3B.

Rookie of the Year: Texas LF Rodolfo Villalobos won after a .279-20-71 season, taking 22 first-place votes while in the NL 27-year-old Cuban import Alejandro Carrillo of Atlanta took all but one first-place vote thanks to a .243-39-112 year that was good for 4.7 WAR.

Cy Young: No suspense in either league. Cleveland's Prince Lovette was a unanimous winner after a season that might see him win MVP as his 8.8 WAR led the AL. That was due to a 16-8, 2.56, 279-strikeout season. Also as impressive if not even more so was San Diego's Nelson Chaverria, who somehow wasn't unanimous (29 of 30) in the NL, who broke Nolan Ryan's modern (after 1900) single-season strikeout record with 387 (in 202 IP, that's 17.2 K/9!) and also earned 8.8 WAR, going 18-8, 2.80.

MVP:



Tatis becomes one of a handful of back-to-back MVPs and was a surprise unanimous pick as he actually had slightly less WAR than J-Rod (7.5 to 7.6) and 1.3 less than Prince Lovette, who finished 5th here behind our Subaru.

The NL winner was also a back-to-backer as Colorado's Jack Ruckert surprisingly won for the third time in four seasons. I say surprisingly because teammate Joey Wika out-WAR'd him 8.0-7.5 and Wika nearly became the first player since 1941 Ted Williams to hit .400 (going 1-9 over the final two days to drop below that mark). It was a very close vote with Ruckert winning 16-14 and 349-337. Ruckert hit .318-41-144 while Wika was .395-9-84 so I guess the power numbers were shinier for the voters.

November 28: The arbitration hearings were held, and the only player we didn't sign beforehand was 1B Mike Brown, who won his case getting $5.5M to the $5.1M we offered. C Zion Rose and P Jose Garces were non-tendered as we couldn't get anything in trade for either. We only saved $2.2M with Rose but the deal for Contreras gave us our backup C. Also SP Carlos Duran declined our $25M qualifying offer, so we'll get a comp pick when he signs.

December 3: Interesting deal as the Yankees sent CF Jasson Dominguez to the rarefied air of Coors Field in exchange for a prospect. Dominguez was making $29M so this seems to be a salary dump.

December 5: Time for a trade to help the rotation:



Not exactly a youth play here as Whitlock is 37, but he's a solid starter only two years removed from a 5.8 WAR season (he had 2.2 last year) and is rated 50/60/70. His 2034 contract vests if he reaches 180 IP. Slotter is a potential 5th starter and Truesdon can't really play 3B but could be a second division guy at 1B; the others are filler to get KC to eat more of Whitlock's salary. We still need a couple of more starters but this is a beginning.

December 8: The first big free agent signed as Oneil Cruz joined Houston on a 4/118 deal after 11 years and 259 homers with Pittsburgh.

December 10: 40-year-old Aaron Judge was traded back to Oakland by the Mets after an injury-riddled year returning to the Big Apple. After a 4.7 WAR season in 2031 Judge was terrible in New York, hitting 11 HR in 82 games, batting .177 and "earning" -0.1 WAR.

December 13: After a decade in Baltimore SS Gunnar Henderson is Texas-bound, inking a 4/141 deal with the Rangers.

December 14: The Giants bought themselves a Ford as catcher Harry signed a massive 7/222 deal to bring one of the game's better catchers to the bay area.

December 15: After some 15+ years with the Angels Mike Trout has become a vagabond, playing with Mets and Padres the last two seasons and will now wander the desert with the Diamondbacks, who signed the 41-year-old to a one-year, $22.2M deal. He's still been a solid 3-3.5 WAR player of late and hit 32 homers for San Diego last year but missed their WS run with a torn meniscus suffered in late September.

Also former Rays 1B Bobby Marsh is back in the AL East, taking a 2/39 offer from the Yankees after a 28-homer season with Texas.

December 16: The first of our free agents signs elsewhere as lefty Aaron Ashby joins the Phillies on a 2/22 deal. He was great for us last year at 10-5, 2.58 but is stamina and health-challenged.

December 17: The draft lottery results are in and nothing dramatic as Kansas City moves up from 3 to 1

December 18: And there goes Carlos Duran, signed by the Cubs for 6/145 which is more than I wanted to give a 31-year-old coming off a career year but he'll be missed. We do get a supplemental 1st rounder for him.

Meanwhile one of the game's top power hitters Ryan Clifford inked a 6/137 deal with Boston after hitting 230 homers in the past 6 seasons and change with Arizona.


December 19: Time for another big trade:



This doesn't help our starting pitching quest, but we get a big upgrade at 1B (for a year) with Anderson, a proven .290-30-100 guy good for a consistent 3 WAR. We had high hopes for Brown but he's kind of stuck in the .260-20-90 mode, which while decent isn't terribly exciting for the position. And we do send another 1B prospect in Griggs, but we have Geronimo Satiro, our current DH, who can play 1B as well and can take over in 2034. With the salary retention this swap only costs us about $2M in salary.

December 21: We made a free agent signing:



Not to be confused with the OF Brock Jones, who was our 2nd-round pick in 2022 and played briefly with the team. This Brock Jones has been a solid lefty reliever with the Cubs but we see starting potential with him as he has 3 plus pitches and can be a 5-6 inning guy with 40 stamina rated 60/55/50. The price was right too as we got him for 2 years at just a little over $2M per. Technically we now have 5 starters with Teodo, Lambert, Whitlock, Kim and Jones but I really don't want Kim in the rotation.

December 22: Added OFs Chris Crisp and Cody Ridell and 2B Jorge Zeledon to the 40-man roster.

Crisp is MLB-ready and had a great season at Durham but our OF is crowded at the moment, while Ridell is a CF with some skills who might ready sooner than later. Zeledon is kind of a freak player who has 75(!) MLB contact, but no power, doesn't draw walks, and is terrible defensively. We still have open slots on the 40-man so if someone intrigues us in the Rule 5 draft we can take a flyer (especially a pitcher)

December 23: The Rule 5 draft was a bust in terms of who was available as we neither picked anyone nor lost anyone.

December 30: We signed an interesting player from indie ball, 2B/SS Steve Kidder. The 24-year-old can also play 3B and has 55 MLB power with 60 potential, although he's doomed to 40 contact. He could make a really useful utility infielder someday soon.

December 31: And we close out 2032 with another free agent signing as we bring back Jose Garces to fill in our rotation. Garces was a 3.7-WAR starter for Pittsburgh in 2030 before injuries hit in 2031 and we grabbed him on waivers last year where he pitched for a while out of our bullpen before spraining an ankle in September and ending his season. He's rated 55/50/65 as a starter with the potential for the movement to tick up to 55.

[Art Deco]

January 1: One of the top free agent starting pitchers changed teams as former Cub Porter Hodge is now a Guardian on a 5/100 deal. Also former Ray Shane Baz surfaced with the Dodgers on a 1-year contract for $2.1M.

January 4: Made a minor-league trade:



Was shopping another player and Boston offered Soto, so I decided to see what else they'd take for him and Ortez, who could be a second-division starter at 3B was enough. Soto is a potentially special bat with potential for 65 contact, 65 power and 70 eye and is rated 45/45/55 currently in those areas. There's a couple of catches though - he's a DH as his "best" position is LF (rated 40) and he takes up a 40-man spot and has only one option year left so he'll have to be our DH by 2034 which doesn't give him a lot of time to reach that potential, having not played above AA. A worthwhile gamble though.

January 5: Agony and ecstasy in the Hall of Fame voting, which was revealed today:



Clayton Kershaw sailed into Cooperstown in his first time on the ballot, nearly unanimously, but Joe Mauer fell a few agonizing votes short in his final year on the ballot (he probably would have gotten the push IRL, and of course he did make it IRL). Gerrit Cole was the top first-time vote-getter after Kershaw, but he's got some work to do.

January 11: Arizona signed 2B CJ Abrams to a 5/91 contract.

January 12: The Yankees came to terms with 3B Marco Luciano on a 2/42 deal and a big trade between the Angels and Guardians with the 2028 MVP (and 6-time Gold Glove winner) 1B Tsuneharu Sugihara heading east for a package including OF Emmanuel Rodriguez.

January 14: Former Rays pitcher Jack Perkins went back to Seattle on a 4/44 deal after a rough 2032 with Boston (5-18, 6.09) which followed a stellar 2031 (13-8, 3.21).

January 25: Former Tampa Bay closer Elvis Alvarado inked a 1/4.5 pact with San Diego while former Cy Young winner Grayson Rodriguez joined Seattle for 2/19 coming off arm surgery.

January 26: We made a splash in the free agent market, adding a proven starter:



Similar to Seattle's deal for Grayson Rodriguez, we grab a former Cy Young winner coming off elbow surgery for 2/16. Ray is rated 65/50/60 and won the 2029 NL Cy with Arizona. Not expecting that kind of season but he should be a solid contributor assuming he doesn't turn into a pumpkin come spring. Not sure who he displaces from the rotation, probably Jose Garces.

Meanwhile another of our free agents found a new home as Brock Porter joined the Padres on a one-year, $10.5M deal after we turned him into a semi-successful starter late last season.

February 4: Yet another of our free agents signs elsewhere. This time it's Garrett Crochet, who stays in the division with Toronto for one year at $11M.

February 26: And the last of our free agents of significance has signed with deadline closer acquisition Danis Correa joining the Dodgers on a 1/11 deal. Correa is "wrecked" so we'll so how fares in LA; he got hurt during the playoffs with us.

February 27: Bryce Harper's 13-year deal with Philly finally ran out this winter, making the 40-year-old a free agent and he joined the Padres for a year at $3.2M.

February 28: Bobby Witt Jr. settled with Seattle on a 1-year, $6.6M deal.

March 4: We were deep into talks with veteran closer Emmanuel Clase on a free agent contract and went as high at $14.6M for a year but the White Sox gave him $16.4 and with $30M available I didn't want to spend more than half of it on a closer. Victor Vodnik will be our closer but we can use other guys too.

March 7: Jose Garces was diagnosed with a partially torn labrum and will be out 6-7 weeks, hurting out pitching depth. Meanwhile we're 9-0-2 so far in spring training.

March 12: We made it to 12-0-2 before finally losing a spring training game, 6-4 to Seattle, the last team to beat us back in the ALCS.

March 28: We closed out spring training with an impressive 20-6-2 record, although the Yankees were 19-3-6.

[Art Deco]

Time to start another season and trying to make it 15 straight playoff appearances and the first that ends in a WS victory.

Here's the Opening Day roster:

C-Basallo, A.Contreras
1B-P.Anderson
2B-Paino
SS-Quezada
3B-Tatis
IF-Clavon
LF-Edwards
CF-Nakashima
RF-B.Schmidt
OF-Auer, B.Guerrero
DH-Satiro

SP-Teodo, D.Ray, Whitlock, Lambert, Chapman*
LR-Kim
MR-Montgomery, Costume, Y.Jimenez, G.Ramos, F.Perez
SU-J.Nunez, S.Scott
CL-Vodnik

*Nate Chapman is up as the 5th starter since Brock Jones is serving a 6-game suspension he incurred at the end of last season. Chapman is out of options as well, which is also why Brailer Guerrero made the team.

What does OOTP think of the team?



Not a bad prediction for the team with the surprise being Lambert among the top pitchers in the AL despite putting up 4th starter numbers to date.

Opening Day:



Not only did the Rays suffer a tough loss, they suffered a tough break as emerging star 2B Owen Paino suffered a bone bruise to his knee which is serious enough to shelve him for a month and a half. We'll recall power-hitting prospect Pepin Schwartz to at least play against RHP and Bryce Clavon will get some more run as well. Meanwhile as for the game the Rays had the bases loaded with one out in the 8th and struck out twice and men on 2nd and 3rd in the 9th with two out only for Tatis to fan.

[Art Deco]

Record: 15-12
2nd place AL East, 2 1/2 behind New York, tied for WC1

Similar to last season the Rays have gotten off to a sluggish start. 15-12 may not look too bad, but their Pythagorean record is 13-14 and very few of the wins so far have looked convincing. The main culprit is a distinct lack of offense even though the same crew has largely returned with the only differences being Pete Anderson at 1B instead of Mike Brown and rookie Pepin Schwartz filling in at 2B for the injured Owen Paino. Neither of them have been terrible (although neither have set the world on fire) so it's more of a general malaise. The pitching has been decent and the reason we've managed to win 15 game so far.

The game-by-game breakdown:



Where things stand around MLB:



The team stats:



As mentioned the record flatters the team a bit and here you can see in detail how lousy the hitting has been with only the team's propensity to homer keeping them afloat. The pitching has been solid despite the largely rebuilt rotation but the team defense has been very poor.




Outside of reigning AL MVP Tatis there isn't much to get excited about here, although Schwartz has been a pleasant surprise filling in for Paino. It's quite telling that a guy who had one plate appearance (Contreras) before getting hurt has a higher WAR than half the team including three regulars (Schmidt, Edwards, Quezada).



Coming into the season I was more concerned about the pitching but that hasn't been the problem so far. Even Whitlock and his horrid 7.03 ERA can be explained by a .405 BABIP (although with this defense his room for improvement might be limited).



Not that exciting a farm system again. Crisp is MLB-ready but got hurt about week into Durham's system; he would have possibly been up to help the offense had that not happened although he'll be back any day now so look for a possible call-up after he gets some games in with the Bulls. Other than him there's no imminent help.

[Art Deco]

Record: 37-18 (22-6 for the month)
1st place AL East, 5 ahead of New York, tied for best record in baseball with Texas

What a month. The Rays finally came into their own after a sluggish April and entered June on an 8-game win streak. An unlike April where it seemed they lucked their way into or squeaked through for wins, they played excellent all-around baseball. Of particular note was the pitching, which only allowed 79 runs in the 28 games or 2.82 runs/game. We also made it through injury-free and got Owen Paino back in the second half of the month, leading us to reluctantly send down Pepin Schwartz who filled in admirably as a rookie. Speaking of rookies, we finally pulled the trigger on prospect Chris Crisp and benched Joe Edwards in LF and Crisp showed us why he was so highly-regarded when he hit six homers over a six-game stretch starting in his third game after being recalled. To make room on the roster for Crisp we said goodbye to Brailer Guerrero in this trade:



There wasn't a market for a platoon OF with defensive limitations but we did alright in picking up Spooner, who hit 299/390/539 in AAA last year with 25 homers and is rated 50/50 contact power with 65/60 potential. Pete Anderson is a rental at 1B and while current DH Geronimo Satiro can play the position it's good to have quality options for next year. Meanwhile here's how the month played out day-by-day:



And a look at the league overall, with the Rays now in an enviable position:



The team numbers:



We're playing a little over our heads Pythagorean-wise, but otherwise the numbers are justified. The offense could be a bit better but we'll always be a team that relies on the home run, and we have the power to do so. The rebuilt rotation has been magnificent and exceeded expectations and the team defense has been solid to above-average.



And what a 16-game debut for Crisp with a 1.035 OPS. The only knock is that maybe he shouldn't run so much, having been caught stealing 4 times in 6 attempts. Subaru had a big month, as did Quezada, who is showing off the power-speed combo that made him so attractive to us. Paino hit the ground running after coming off the IL and you can see why were sad to see Schwartz go for now. Meanwhile we had a bit of a bad run of luck with injuries and suspensions at 2B so Ethan Holliday got the call for a little while after being in the minors for most of the last two years, and his 0-13 in his cameo did little to inspire us to bring him up again.



Brilliant pitching numbers all around as alluded to earlier. In fact Ray got some recognition:



He was BABIP-lucky (.188) but got the job done.

We'll check in on the prospects against at mid-season.

[Art Deco]

Record: 55-24 (18-6 for the month)
1st place AL East, 11 1/2 up on Toronto

This team has become a wagon, now 40-12 over the last two months and on pace for over 110 wins. There's been an element of luck as our Pythagorean record says we're not this good and there have been several close wins, but this is still quite a good team. For some reason though I have a nagging feeling they might struggle in the postseason but we're a half a season away from there. Only one injury of note - rookie sensation Chris Crisp developed elbow inflammation, missed most of the month, and will miss most of July as well by the time he returns from rehab barring any setbacks. No problem though as we just plugged in another rookie, 2028 2nd-round pick Cody Ridell, and all he's done is hit .340 in 11 games. It's been that kind of year.

The game-by-game review (we had a lot of off-days this month):



The big-picture look:



Team stats:



As befits a 55-24 team everything looks good-to-great all around. If you want to nit-pick our hitters strike out too much and don't draw enough walks, and we could score some more runs. But with the elite pitching we're getting we don't need to.



And dragging us down on offense some are the DH (Satiro, who at least has been productive when he does hit safely) and 1.5-year disappointment Schmidt, who at least has picked up a bit of late. And the bench outside of Contreras has been lame. But Basallo's bounce-back year has continued and Quezada has been a revelation at SS.



Man I need a cigarette after looking at these pitching numbers. Dylan Ray has turned into a stealth Cy Young candidate (#1 in the AL in wins, #2 in ERA) and not a single pitcher has negative WAR. Whitlock has brought his BABIP-addled ERA way down thanks to some positive regression from his teammates in the field and all I can say is "keep up the good work, guys".



We do close this sunshine-and-rainbows post on a down note with a recap of this thoroughly mediocre farm system. Thank goodness the big club doesn't need help from it because after calling up Ridell (and earlier Crisp) there isn't a lot to be had. At least Vokey and Cerda are inching closer to the bigs and might only be a couple years away now but as I did last winter I'm going to have to do some wheeling and dealing to keep this team going next year.

[Art Deco]

The Amateur Draft:



Hutzenbiler: A California high-school lefty with 65/65/80 potential, a potential ace but there's a lot to go from here to there.

Hicks: Texas HS OF with 80 contact and 65 power potential and looks like he'll be an adequate defensive OF.

Randall: A contact-oriented HS OF from California with 80 contact, gap and avoid Ks potential. Only 45 power and 35 eye so he's going to have to hit his way on base. Also looks like he could be a OK fielder.

Allen: We continue to stay in CA/TX with this Texas starting pitcher who had high bonus demands and fell to the 4th with his 75/65/50 potential. We're breaking out the checkbook for him.

Vaca: A polished, versatile OF from the University of Florida (Go Gators!) with 55 contact and power potential and the ability to play 1B/2B/3B in addition to all 3 OF positions. Perhaps the team that invented the Ben Zobrist role will have another one.

Chillis: High-school OF with 55/65 potential but questionable OF skills.

Now on to the All-Star festivities.

The teams:

The American League All-Stars feature these players:

SP Biembenido Brito (OAK) - 7-4, 2.59 ERA, 107.2 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 13.3 K/9, 2.4 WAR
SP Kenskey Holt (LAA)* - 7-3, 2.85 ERA, 101.0 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 1.3 WAR
SP Erik Kinney (TEX) - 8-5, 2.93 ERA, 119.2 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 3.8 WAR
SP Joe Ricker (LAA) - 7-8, 2.61 ERA, 114.0 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 WAR
SP Paul Skenes (TEX) - 9-2, 2.39 ERA, 116.2 IP, 0.76 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.8 WAR
SP Darren Thompson (HOU) - 8-4, 2.91 ERA, 117.2 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.2 WAR
SP Gunder Wieghorst (DET) - 3-5, 3.25 ERA, 91.1 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 WAR
RP Emmanuel Clase (CWS) - 1-3, 6 SV, 1.82 ERA, 34.2 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 1.0 WAR
RP Drey Jameson (HOU) - 3-1, 2.50 ERA, 57.2 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 5.6 K/9, 0.4 WAR
RP Bobby Miller (SEA) - 4-0, 0.62 ERA, 43.1 IP, 0.85 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.8 WAR
RP Emerson Talavera (CWS) - 2-3, 2.22 ERA, 52.2 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 0.6 WAR
CL Spencer Arrighetti (BAL) - 3-5, 7 SV, 2.68 ERA, 47.0 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 1.5 WAR
CL Andres Munoz (SEA)* - 4-1, 24 SV, 1.45 ERA, 37.1 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 12.5 K/9, 2.3 WAR
C Francisco Alvarez (NYY)* - .290/.381/.583, 259 AB, 21 HR, 2 SB, 167 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
C Samuel Basallo (TB) - .275/.335/.527, 258 AB, 15 HR, 136 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
C Diego Cartaya (CLE) - .249/.351/.431, 225 AB, 10 HR, 1 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.1 WAR
1B Pete Anderson (TB) - .297/.375/.512, 344 AB, 16 HR, 1 SB, 137 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
1B Coby Mayo (BAL)* - .251/.321/.487, 339 AB, 23 HR, 4 SB, 124 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
2B Mike Miller (NYY)* - .287/.360/.556, 320 AB, 25 HR, 153 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
3B Elly De La Cruz (TEX) - .295/.335/.496, 349 AB, 17 HR, 16 SB, 129 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B Wes Kath (CWS)* - .284/.353/.599, 327 AB, 28 HR, 2 SB, 160 wRC+, 4.0 WAR
3B Marco Luciano (NYY) - .299/.355/.511, 278 AB, 15 HR, 141 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B Ethan Porter (BAL) - .260/.367/.472, 339 AB, 19 HR, 3 SB, 134 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
3B Fernando Tatis Jr. (TB) - .272/.356/.479, 313 AB, 14 HR, 29 SB, 126 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B James Triantos (MIN) - .279/.332/.424, 337 AB, 7 HR, 13 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
SS Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS)* - .301/.337/.441, 236 AB, 4 HR, 6 SB, 114 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
SS Daniel Trejo (CLE) - .240/.288/.522, 337 AB, 27 HR, 119 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
LF Michael Mullinax (KC)* - .318/.367/.474, 340 AB, 11 HR, 9 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
LF Luis Pino (NYY)* - .303/.366/.583, 264 AB, 19 HR, 4 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.6 WAR (Injured)
CF Jay Allen II (TOR) - .307/.408/.452, 332 AB, 8 HR, 34 SB, 145 wRC+, 4.6 WAR
CF Jake Huggler (HOU) - .318/.373/.519, 343 AB, 14 HR, 6 SB, 148 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (SEA)* - .295/.361/.479, 315 AB, 11 HR, 26 SB, 136 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
CF Mario Zabala (BAL) - .279/.330/.522, 341 AB, 19 HR, 22 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
RF Corbin Carroll (TEX)* - .271/.374/.397, 295 AB, 6 HR, 14 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
RF Josh Metasavage (NYY) - .332/.399/.679, 196 AB, 17 HR, 194 wRC+, 2.2 WAR

On the National League All-Star roster will be:

SP Nelson Chaverria (SD)* - 6-6, 1.94 ERA, 111.1 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 16.1 K/9, 4.0 WAR
SP Logan Henderson (MIL) - 8-6, 2.69 ERA, 113.2 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 3.0 WAR
SP Drew Lafferty (LAD) - 8-6, 3.22 ERA, 111.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.5 WAR
SP James Lofton Jr. (SD) - 7-7, 2.57 ERA, 122.1 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 WAR
SP Francis Pena (PIT) - 9-3, 2.18 ERA, 86.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 3.1 WAR
SP Oliver Roque (CHC) - 6-6, 2.78 ERA, 94.0 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 4.0 WAR
SP Alex Santos II (CIN) - 8-3, 2.34 ERA, 115.1 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 2.8 WAR
RP Melvin Javier (SF) - 2-0, 1.11 ERA, 40.2 IP, 0.76 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.1 WAR
RP Keider Montero (CHC) - 7-2, 2.88 ERA, 75.0 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 1.5 WAR
RP Alex Wells (PHI) - 6-2, 2.70 ERA, 73.1 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Jhoan Duran (PHI) - 1-3, 22 SV, 3.55 ERA, 33.0 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 0.9 WAR
CL Osiel Rodriguez (NYM) - 2-2, 25 SV, 1.72 ERA, 36.2 IP, 0.68 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 0.1 WAR
CL Jonathan Sprinkle (SD)* - 0-4, 19 SV, 3.45 ERA, 31.1 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 0.1 WAR
C Jake Argueta (CHC) - .283/.347/.447, 244 AB, 10 HR, 120 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
C Reese Pyke (PHI) - .279/.326/.414, 251 AB, 6 HR, 1 SB, 105 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
C Ethan Salas (MIL)* - .294/.363/.424, 238 AB, 4 HR, 2 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
1B Andres Gracia (MIL) - .295/.379/.485, 305 AB, 15 HR, 144 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
1B Andre' Modugno (WSH) - .311/.393/.515, 328 AB, 15 HR, 4 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
1B Tre' Morgan (COL)* - .363/.456/.564, 328 AB, 11 HR, 2 SB, 180 wRC+, 4.4 WAR
1B Eddie Welch (LAD) - .276/.350/.577, 333 AB, 28 HR, 152 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
2B Ty Hodge (AZ) - .244/.358/.399, 193 AB, 4 HR, 9 SB, 111 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
2B Liover Peguero (STL) - .305/.367/.417, 266 AB, 4 HR, 12 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
2B Jack Ruckert (COL)* - .321/.389/.676, 343 AB, 33 HR, 3 SB, 184 wRC+, 5.3 WAR
3B Cam Collier (CIN)* - .295/.362/.510, 312 AB, 18 HR, 4 SB, 142 wRC+, 2.5 WAR (Injured)
3B Camilo Diaz (WSH) - .271/.308/.592, 292 AB, 23 HR, 13 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.1 WAR
3B Wander Franco (LAD) - .309/.364/.493, 343 AB, 12 HR, 3 SB, 139 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
3B Luis Garcia (WSH)* - .315/.373/.525, 276 AB, 13 HR, 1 SB, 146 wRC+, 2.4 WAR (Injured)
SS Armando Cruz (WSH)* - .285/.331/.444, 288 AB, 9 HR, 3 SB, 112 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
LF Josh Livezey (ATL) - .325/.368/.463, 354 AB, 5 HR, 20 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
LF Jesus Morales (CIN) - .262/.374/.473, 313 AB, 17 HR, 6 SB, 134 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
CF Jasson Dominguez (COL)* - .339/.409/.612, 345 AB, 21 HR, 8 SB, 177 wRC+, 4.7 WAR
CF Joel Kachmar (PHI) - .305/.346/.530, 351 AB, 17 HR, 12 SB, 142 wRC+, 3.5 WAR
CF Cidro Palomino (MIA) - .294/.339/.487, 347 AB, 15 HR, 36 SB, 129 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
RF Zaid Diaz (MIA) - .269/.342/.518, 309 AB, 20 HR, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
RF Robert Hassell III (CIN)* - .310/.375/.471, 310 AB, 8 HR, 15 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
RF Juan Soto (NYM)* - .289/.412/.531, 311 AB, 20 HR, 164 wRC+, 3.4 WAR

For having the best record in the league by far the Rays were a bit under-represented at the game with 3 hitters and zero pitchers off the top ERA team. Would have thought Dylan Ray (9-3, 2.91) would have gotten a spot, but no. It's Basallo's 3rd All-Star nod but first as a Ray, Anderson's 4th (and also first with the Rays), and Tatis's 6th (and 4th in 5 seasons with Tampa Bay).

The Derby (no Rays involved):



The Game:



Not much going on with the Rays in the game - all 3 came off the bench with Tatis 1-2, Anderson 0-2 and Basallo drawing a walk in his lone plate appearance.