The 2020 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Going the distance...



Yet another classic in what will go down as one of the best World Series of all-time (now watch Game 7 be a blowout) as the Rays edged Pittsburgh 4-3 to force a winner-take-all game tomorrow. Having struggled to get a key hit through much of this series and much of the evening after the first, Jose Machado doubled with two out in the 8th and scored on Paul Mayes' RBI single for the winner, and Jake Cid and Mario Berumen tag-teamed their way through the 9th to preserve the season-saving win. It looked like the Rays might be on their way to laugher after getting 3 in the first including back-to-back jacks from Jesus Avalos (finally his first of the postseason) and Vinny Colon, but Pittsburgh chipped away at Steve Swords and it became a battle of wills once again. So it's all on the line tomorrow with Elijah Whitaker, who will hope to pitch better than his mixed bag of a Game 3 start.

[Art Deco]

Heartbreak...



In the end they came up one run short. In a World Series for the ages in which 5 of the 7 games were decided by one run and the other two were decided by two, it was Tampa Bay which came up on the short end of the stick in Game 7. And the tying run was there for the taking - after Paul Mayes and Henry Dominguez doubled in the 9th to cut Pittsburgh's lead to one, there was only one out but David Morales (in likely his final at-bat as a Ray) flied out to right and the team's superstar Jesus Avalos grounded to second and there was no joy in Mudville, er Tampa. And though it wasn't explicit in the recap above, former Ray Kang-cheol Lee was named Series MVP as Lee capped a great series by homering today off Elijah Whitaker, who just couldn't get it done tonight.

Most of this crew should be back for 2057 except for Morales (who's been in decline and will cost too much) and 5 of the 6 top relievers in the bullpen (save Devin Tadlock) so that will be a major offseason focus which I'll address in the State of the Team post coming soon.

[Art Deco]

The state of the team is pretty good, although it'd be a lot better if we'd managed to win Game 7 of the World Series. As alluded to in the previous post we're returning most of the team with two glaring exceptions: catcher and the bullpen. David Morales is a free agent and while he's served us well the last several years his bat has really dropped off (.622 OPS last year) and he's now on the wrong end of the age curve at 31. Somebody will give him the $22-24M/year contract he wants but it won't be us. The other big concern is the bullpen where we lose Berumen, Cid, Flores, Guardado, Sanchez and swingman Tim Johnson. Here's what we're looking at for the returning players in terms of salary:



This totals $126M and we've been given a payroll of $160M. Not everyone above is coming back either so we'll probably have about $40M to play with.

The position-by-position outlook:

C: Morales is gone but we still have Dave Gonzalez, who had a great year at the plate serving as the DH against righties and the backup catcher. His defense is slightly below average so we'll take a hit there but he could definitely be our primary catcher. We're going to have to find someone to team with him, preferably a RH-batting option who's also a good defender.

1B: Vinny Colon had an impressive rookie season and a fine postseason and will continue to platoon with Angel Gonzales, who was really good as well against lefties.

2B: Aaron White is a fine all-around player, no notes.

SS: Dantel Chinchilla has been our old reliable and while he's not a great defensive SS, he's good enough and he nearly drove in 100 runs last year out of the 9-hole.

3B: Paul Mayes is a rookie of the year candidate and was outstanding.

IF: Alex Brown will probably be back as the IF backup as he's a superior defender.

LF: Joel Bland missed a good chunk of the season with injury but is a real talent.

CF: Henry Dominguez was everything he hoped for as a rookie after coming up mid-season, giving us quality D and hitting well.

RF: Jesus Avalos enters his last year of team control and our resident superstar is coming off a down year by his standards (3.2 WAR after 8.6 and 5.5 in the previous two seasons, so the decline is a concern).

OF: Brian Whittaker will likely be the primary OF backup, a RH bat who can spell the lefty starters and play a good CF. Jose Lozada is also a good RH-hitting backup but he's due for $6M in arbitration and may be traded to clear some payroll room. We also still have Emmanuel Jervis, who was terrible after being claimed on waivers and hitting two homers in his first game with us.

DH: With Gonzalez becoming the primary catcher, this opens the job up everyday for Jose Machado, who had a nice year last year and can also back up at 2B. Gonzalez may also play here some when not catching.

Others: There are several players at Durham who can hit in the bigs and some who have been up with us at one time or another (1B Manny Mendoza and Takayuki Tsujimura, 1B/3B/DH Xavier Bush, RF Dae-Sung Park) but the real hitting phenom is 1B Ruben Brown, with 65 contact/60 power/55 eye who hit 305/388/593 with 37 HR and 113 at AA Montgomery last year. We already have two young 1B but Brown could figure into our DH plans or if we trade one of the 1B.

Rotation: It returns intact with Rose/Whitaker/Swords/Barraza/Mastropietro coming back. Rookie Julio Mattila is next in line and should make the team as a long man, replacing Tim Johnson.

Bullpen: And here's what it gets barren. Devin Tadlock is the closer right now and he's capable, but there's nobody that really looks like a setup man. Victor Boria was pretty good in middle relief and will return as will Erik Witten, who's technically a free agent and isn't shown above but will be signing a modest 2-year, $3M total deal to return. We also claimed veteran middle man Joe Rose from the Angels on waivers as the season ended and he'll help out, but that's about it. Aside from potential longman Mattila, we also have no lefties. We'll kick the tires on extensions for some of the free agents but I wouldn't expect too much.

So in summary, here are the two main offseason goals:

1) Find a RH-hitting, defensively-responsible catcher.
2) Add at least 3-4 relievers, one or two which needs to be a lefty.

[Art Deco]

Retirements: Some former Rays hung up the cleats - 1B Ruben Ramirez (80 homers as a part-timer for us over 2048-51), P Rex Bransington (18-6, 3.75 in 1 1/2 years in the rotation from 2050-51), OF Beau Bonczek (two great years - .285-32-107 and .291-40-108 in 2050-51, good for 8.9 WAR)

November 5: We kicked off the winter with a deal from our OF surplus:



Lozada had been a good servant for the club but he was due to make $6M this year in arbitration and that's a lot to pay a backup. In return for him and Brown (a middling prospect), we got a couple of interesting additions from the Angels. McMullan will give us a body in the bullpen although he's more of a swing type than a short reliever and is rated 55/65/50 in the pen. He had a 2.57 ERA in 42 IP with 0.7 WAR for the Angels. And Balderas is even more intriguing - a 60-rated 3B who hit 297/347/429 in 91 AB as a rookie with LA and is rated 60 contact (65 potential) with 50 power and a 60 glove at the hot corner. He can also play 2B and SS so while there's no way he dislodges Paul Mayes at 3B he could contend for an IF backup role and has options remaining.

November 7: The 2-year, $3.1M deal with Erik Witten is official and he'll rejoin the club. Our other free agent relievers all want 8-figure salaries so we'll see how the market plays out. We've settled with all the arb-eligibles except Aaron White who wants a multi-year deal in his first year of arbitration.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: No winners for us. Aaron White might have had a chance had he played the full season here.

Reliever of the Year: LA's Bill Sutherland was the AL unanimous winner after a brilliant 51-save, 1.57 ERA, 4.4 WAR(!) season while San Francisco's Nicolas Rivas won for his 41-save, 1.99 ERA season.

Silver Slugger: Our Dave Gonzalez took the award at DH and he should have a better shot at it next year primarily catching.

Rookie of the Year: It was unanimous:



And while Mayes was a worthy winner even more worthy was Pittsburgh's Nick Villafana in the NL who also won unanimously. He'll likely cap a dream season that culminated in a World Series win over us with an MVP award as well after a .319-52-139, 11.4-WAR season.

Cy Young: More unanimity with Houston's Randy Heller winning in the AL thanks to an amazing 22-4, 2.21 which earned him 7.5 WAR. Thought our Dave Rose would place higher but he ended up sixth with Elijah Whitaker finishing eighth. In the NL Atlanta's Mario Uribe took 31 of 32 first-place votes after his 11-7, 2.24 good for a league-best 5.9 WAR.

MVP: Toronto's Jerry Esparza was the AL choice, taking 20 first-place votes on the merits of his .313-41-102, 7.1-WAR season. Our Paul Mayes was our highest finisher in 11th. And to no one's surprise Villafana was a unanimous winner in the NL.

December 4: Our longtime catcher David Morales has found a new home as the free agent signed with San Diego for 5/112. We'll net a 1st-round comp pick as a result.

December 9: Another of our free agents has signed as closer of the last couple of seasons Mario Berumen landed in St. Louis on a 3/43 deal.

December 12: We have a trade for a back-end reliever:



Welcome aboard, Josh Meenach. The 34-year-old righty has been Milwaukee's closer the last six years, recording 211 saves in that span. He's entering the final year of his contract which the Brewers were glad to eat half of, so the cost isn't huge for us either (neither is Hardy a 1.5-star prospect). The catch with Meenach is that his HR rate spiked last year from 0.7 per 9 to 1.5 although he's still rated 60 movement. Gonna hope it was a fluky, one-year variance that's common with relievers because his 75 stuff still plays. Not sure yet whether he'll be installed as the closer over Devin Tadlock, but he gives us a legit 8th/9th-inning option now.

December 22: Another long-time bullpen piece goes elsewhere with Danny Sanchez joining the Reds on a 3/22 contract.

December 23: Added 1B Ruben Brown, 2B Prince Brown, P Julio Baez and OF Danny Duran to the 42-man roster.

The two Browns (especially Ruben) and Duran are quality prospects while Baez is a veteran swingman who's been up with us and whom we signed to an MLB contract. We still have some open slots in case something in Rule 5 catches our eye.

December 23: Lost Ps Denzel Mayo and Mario Vargas in the Rule 5 Draft.

No big losses here although Mayo had been a fixture at Durham for the last 6 seasons. He has the fringiest of stuff but good control and movement and he could a 5th starter for Columbus. Vargas was in Seattle's rotation as recently as 2055 and was decent in 24 starts with Durham last year (3.28 ERA, 97 K in 94 IP) and with 55/50/50 ratings will probably make a decent 5th starter for Toronto but we were only looking at him as depth.

December 26: There goes another one - Dave Flores, who was a disappointment in his one season in our bullpen, inked a 2/15 pact with the Dodgers.

December 27: Signed OF Ji-Hoon Kim to a minor league deal.

Kim was a professional IFA from South Korea and the 28-year-old can play the corners with some power (60 current, 65 potential) and a good eye (60). The contact tool is only 45 though, which is why he ended up with an MiLB deal. Still it's depth at Durham and he's a righty batter which is important since all 3 of our starting OFs are lefties.

December 31: Signed C Alex Gonzalez to a 1-year, $1.5M contract.

We have our backup catcher and we'll be going with an all-Gonzalez tandem as Alex will play alongside Dave. He's a 55-rated catcher with 55 power and 45 contact. Nothing special, but enough glove and he swings from the right side, which was important.

[Art Deco]

January 3: Some big free agent news:



Welcome back Jake Cid! The veteran is in the fold for two more years and gives us the power lefty we were lacking in the pen. He doesn't come cheap and we're committed for two years to a 36-year-old so there's some risk but sometimes you have to take it.

January 4: The Hall of Fame voting is in:



Congrats to Lozada, Padilla and Erickson! Lozada and Padilla were both very similar players - the former had 2985 hits, batted .314 and stole 728 bases while the latter had a massive 3610 hits, batted .309 and stole 739 bases, being the pre-eminent leadoff hitters of their generation. Erickson was one of the game's best all-around players, putting up a career 90 WAR with 410 homers and an MVP season in 2041 in which he earned 9.8 WAR. He also won 4 Gold Gloves for his superior defense. We say goodbye to Bo Bichette but hello to former Rays superstar Omar Rodriguez, who made a good first-year showing. Other former Rays stars Kikuo Kawase, Victor de Jesus and Bo Angeac have kind of stagnated, with Angeac a true longshot at this point.

January 7: The last of our big-name free agent relievers has signed elsewhere as Adan Guardado joined the Mets for 3/27.

February 4: Made our big international amateur free agent signing, adding 16-year-old Venezuelan catcher Angel Gomez. He has potential 75 power and a 75 eye but only 40 contact. Also he may not end up behind the plate as he only has 45 potential defensively.

February 14: Tim Johnson, a swingman with us the last few years, signed a modest 1-year, $1.2M deal with Houston.

[Art Deco]

An injury-free spring training, which is all we want out of it.

The Opening Day roster is thus:

C-D.Gonzalez, A.Gonzalez
1B-Colon
2B-A.White
SS-Chinchilla
3B-Mayes
IF-A.Gonzales*, Woodard
LF-Bland
CF-H.Dominguez
RF-J.Avalos
OF-Whittaker, Jervis
DH-Machado
*will platoon with Colon at 1B

SP-D.Rose, Whitaker, Swords, Barraza, Mastropietro
LR-Mattila
MR-J.Rose, J.Baez, Boria, McMullan, Witten, Meenach
SU-Cid
CL-Tadlock

Aside from the offseason acquisitions (A.Gonzalez, Meenach, J.Rose, McMullan) also making the team are a couple of blasts from the past who were out of options: IF Jayden Woodard and P Julio Baez. Woodard is a superior defender who would probably win a Gold Glove at 2B if he played every day and can play SS well too. Baez pitched well in Durham's rotation last year and will pitch in long/middle relief and is there in case someone in the rotation gets hurt.

The friendly faces:



So what does OOTP think of this crew?



Not bad even though it has us second to Baltimore. Hoping the call for a bounce-back Jesus Avalos season verifies.

The season starts with 4 games at home against Boston.