Sacramento Prayers - 1988 FLB Season

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THE HOT CORNER
Baseball coverage from the inside — Sacramento Prayers and the FBL

By Claude Playball | Baseball Insider & Analyst | Host, "Hot Corner" Podcast

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August 18 – August 31, 1997 | Ninety-Two and Thirty-Nine | Jimenez Is Doing Something Extraordinary

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MUSCO IS BACK, CHOI HAS KNEE TENDINITIS, THE MAGIC NUMBER IS SIX, AND MARIO JIMENEZ HAS NOT LOST A GAME SINCE JULY 3RD.

The magic number entering September is six. The division is clinched in all but the mathematical formality, and the specific question the Hot Corner has been filing since April — whether Sacramento would reach October healthy enough and deep enough to win a third championship — now resolves itself in the games remaining rather than in projections. The answers are arriving with two weeks of regular season to go, and they are arriving in complicated configurations.

Edwin Musco returned from his torn meniscus on August 29th, four months and seventeen days after the injury that put his season on pause before April was finished. He went zero for three in his first game back, which tells you nothing. He is back from an injury that shuts players down for five to six months and the fact of his presence in the lineup is the news, not the box score line. I will not project his October readiness from three appearances as a DH. What can be said is that the best defensive shortstop on this roster has returned to the building, and the organizational decision about how to deploy Rodriguez and Musco across the final weeks of the regular season will tell us something about how Aces plans to use them in October.

Ha-joon Choi has knee tendinitis. He is day-to-day. Choi is not on the IL, which means he is being managed rather than shut down, but two to three weeks projected time for a full recovery means he needs to be extra careful through the end of the regular season and potentially into the postseason. Choi has forty home runs and a hundred and one RBI. He hit forty-one games worth of production between April 6th and August 24th before the knee appeared in the injury report. The Hot Corner watches this carefully without overstating it: tendinitis managed through September in a lineup with a twenty-six-game division lead is one thing. Tendinitis managed through the ALCS is a different calculation entirely.

And then there is Mario Jimenez, who has not lost a game since July 3rd and whose ERA across his last eight starts is 1.42. The Hot Corner has been filing the Jimenez enigma since April, noting that the ceiling version and the floor version of this pitcher are separated by a diagnostic gap I could not resolve. The gap has not closed. What has happened is that the ceiling version has arrived and has not departed for two consecutive months, which is its own form of resolution.

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DID YOU CATCH THOSE GAMES? — WHAT THE SCORECARDS SAY

@ Los Angeles, August 18-19 (2-0)

Strickler won his thirteenth game of the year on August 18th with seven innings of one-run ball — and the specific offensive note from this game is Alexis Zuniga, the twenty-five-year-old catcher Sacramento received from Baltimore in the Francisco Hernandez trade in July, who hit a three-run homer in the second inning in his first major league start. Zuniga went to Triple-A Oxnard the following day when Porras was purchased from Double-A Augusta as the primary backup catcher behind the injured Florez. The Hot Corner logs this transaction sequence without judgment except to observe that the catching depth situation requires active management.

Jimenez threw eight and two-thirds innings on August 19th and allowed one run. Lozano hit a two-run homer in the fourth. Shinohara went three for five. Sacramento winning streak reached five games without a loss. Five to one, Sacramento.

vs. Vancouver, August 20-21 (1-1)

August 20th was Rubalcava allowing ten hits and four runs in four and two-thirds innings — his third loss of the season, which moves his record to twelve and four — in a game where Vancouver's Quirarte threw six and two-thirds innings of five-hit shutout ball and Mejia held the final two and a third. Sacramento collected six hits and zero runs. Three errors by Sacramento defense contributed to the Vancouver comfort level. Zero to four.

The Hot Corner wants to log this game as an extension of the offensive pattern identified in June: a quality starter who locates efficiently, minimal hard contact, a lineup that generates hits in scattered fashion without converting them into runs. Quirarte at twelve and eight is not a dominant starter. He is the type of pitcher who has consistently solved this lineup because his profile matches the vulnerability profile of his opposition. Zero runs from six hits across nine innings.

August 21st: Andretti went six and a third innings and won his fourteenth game. Rodriguez hit his twenty-first homer in the second. Benson earned his eighth save. Five to two, Sacramento.

vs. Houston, August 22-24 (2-1)

August 22nd is a game the I want to document for three specific reasons. First, Espenoza was exceptional — seven and two-thirds innings, three hits, eight strikeouts, an ERA that dropped back toward three — and the performance represents a direct counter-argument to the concern I filed about his August trend. Second, Choi hit his fortieth home run in the first inning. That makes it forty home runs in one hundred and forty-nine games. Lopez hit his twentieth in the second inning. The offense scored eleven runs in a game where the starters walked a combined zero batters. Third, and most important: Lozano was injured running the bases during the game. The injury report from August 22nd lists him as injured while running, and yet he appeared in subsequent games — most notably going three for four with a double in the August 25th Boston game. We don't have sufficient information to assess severity of his injury; what is evident — he is able to play through it.

August 23rd: Strickler allowed four runs in six and a third innings including a Valtierra grand slam in the second inning — the bad version of the Strickler start, which has now appeared four times in 1997, always characterized by a multi-run inning early that puts the offense in a deficit it cannot overcome. Velasquez of Houston went nine innings and struck out six. Seven to three, Houston. Important note: McDonald entered in relief and allowed a run in one and two-thirds innings, and Prieto allowed two more in the ninth. The bullpen without Medina continues to produce results I cannot call reliable.

August 24th: Jimenez went six and a third innings of three-hit ball. Perez drove in the decisive run on a ground out in the fourth. Benson saved his ninth. Two to one, Sacramento, in a game where the lineup generated six hits and won on the execution of small-ball rather than power. Choi left the game in the fourth after a running-the-bases injury, whis was classified after the game as a knee tendinitis.

vs. Boston, August 25-27 (2-1)

August 25th was Lopez going three for four with two home runs off Chechi — his twenty-first and twenty-second — in the most sustained individual offensive performance by a leadoff hitter Sacramento has produced since the first half of the season. Lopez drove in three runs, scored twice, and provided the offensive structure that Rubalcava needed after allowing two early runs. Blake hit his eighteenth homer in the fifth. Lozano hit his sixteenth in the fifth as well. Seven to five, Sacramento, with Gonzalez saving his third.

August 26th: Andretti went five and two-thirds innings and allowed three runs, which is the middle version of his starts — not the dominant version that produced nine innings of shutout ball in June, not the collapse version from July, but the workmanlike five-and-two-thirds-innings effort that the offense has been capable of supporting. Lozano went three for four with a homer, a double, and two runs scored. Perez hit his twentieth homer in the eighth to break a tie. Esparza went two clean innings in relief, which is the first meaningful evidence that the Nashville trade acquisition can contribute something in a late-inning situation. Benson's tenth save. Five to three, Sacramento.

August 27th was Mendoza of Boston going eight innings and allowing zero runs on two hits with eleven strikeouts. Espenoza went eight innings and allowed one run. The final was three to zero, Boston, decided on a Prieto ninth-inning meltdown — a Ruiz two-run homer on a pitch that Prieto had no business throwing in the middle of the zone. The Hot Corner counts this as the ninth time this season that a quality starting pitcher has held Sacramento to zero or one run across seven or more innings. The lineup can be shut down by a specific profile of pitcher. The profile is consistent. Mendoza fits it as cleanly as any starter the Prayers have faced this year.

@ Washington, August 29-31 (2-1)

August 29th is the game where Musco made his return, appearing as the designated hitter and going zero for three with a GIDP. A player returning from a four-month absence after knee surgery, making his first appearance in a competitive game, going zero for three is entirely expected. What matters is that he is back on active duty. Strickler threw six and two-thirds innings of shutout ball — the streak of strong Strickler starts reasserting itself after the Houston blip — and Benson entered in the eleventh with a tie game and allowed a Lucyk three-run homer. Benson's fourth blown save of the season. Three to one, Washington, in eleven innings.

The Hot Corner wants to be direct about the Benson situation. He is eight and two with a 1.95 ERA and he is the best relief pitcher on this roster. He is also now four for thirteen in save opportunities. The specific failure mode — a three-run homer in extra innings from a hitter he should have retired — is not the failure mode the Hot Corner expected from him, but it is now documented across four separate occurrences. Whether Aces continues to deploy him as the primary closer or splits the late-inning burden differently across the final month of the regular season is a decision with October implications.

August 30th: Rubalcava went seven innings and allowed two runs, his fourteenth win, and Prieto recorded his fifth save after entering in the eighth and holding Washington across two innings. The specific Prieto sequence here — two innings, zero runs, steady command — is the version the Hot Corner wants in October if Benson is unavailable in a given late-game situation. Porras went two for four at catcher, which is a data point from a sample of one.

August 31st: Andretti won his fifteenth game of the year with six and a third innings of two-run ball. Musco was hit by a pitch in the fifth inning, which is not the return-from-injury moment anyone would welcome, but that moment of scare registered as an RBI in the official record. Perez went three for four with his twenty-first homer. Esparza closed for a save in two and two-thirds scoreless innings. Four to two, Sacramento. The magic number dropped to six.

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THE STORIES THAT DEFINE THIS STRETCH

Jimenez at six wins and zero losses since July 3rd is one of the most significant developments of the second half

The Hot Corner has discussed the Jimenez ceiling-versus-floor question more times than I can count in this column. The answer that the August data provides is not that the floor has been eliminated — it is that the ceiling has been sustained across two consecutive months in a way that constitutes a pattern rather than a coincidence. Six-and-zero since July 3rd. A 1.42 ERA across his last eight starts. Individual lines: eight and two-thirds innings against Los Angeles, six and a third innings of three-hit ball against Houston, seven and two-thirds innings in the August 12th San Jose win, seven and two-thirds innings in the August 31st Washington win. The Hot Corner's assessment as of August 31st: Jimenez is the best fifth starter in the American League and has been for two months. If this version shows up in October, the rotation that produces it — Strickler, Espenoza, Rubalcava, Andretti, Jimenez — is the deepest five-man staff in recent franchise history.

Rodriguez at twenty-two home runs from the shortstop position is not a fluke

I first noted Rodriguez's offensive production in April when Musco went down and the question was how many runs the Prayers would lose from the shortstop slot. The answer, across a hundred and twelve games, is: none. Twenty-two home runs. Fifty-five RBI. A .234 average that understates his specific production in high-leverage situations. The twelve committed errors remain the defensive concern that is honest and real. But the offensive contribution from the shortstop position has been the single greatest positive surprise of this roster in 1997. As Musco returns now to full capacity, the decision about who plays short and who plays third will be one of the more interesting tactical questions of the postseason.

The Esparza emergence is the most important bullpen development of August

Sergio Esparza was acquired from Nashville in the trade that sent Jesus Hernandez, Jamie Bradley, and a draft pick out of the organization on July 17th. He went to Triple-A Oxnard immediately and contributed nothing visible until August. In his appearances against Vancouver on August 21st, Boston on August 26th, and Washington on August 31st, he threw six and two-thirds combined innings of hitless, runless relief. His ERA is 0.00. The sample is small but the profile is the closest thing to a legitimate replacement for Medina that currently exists on the roster: a thirty-year-old right-hander with command of his secondary pitches who does not walk batters. The Hot Corner is watching his pitch mix and his results with specific attention and will update this assessment as more data arrives.

Choi's knee tendinitis at forty home runs and a hundred-and-one RBI is the injury the Hot Corner cannot afford to underestimate

The Hot Corner has documented eleven opposing starters this season who have held this lineup to one or fewer runs. Every one of them exploits a specific swing tendency in two-strike counts that Choi's presence at the top of the power production largely compensates for — when Choi hits a two-run homer off a pitcher who is doing everything right, the other forty percent of the lineup's offensive vulnerability is concealed. When Choi is hitting with a knee that limits his ability to drive through contact, the concealment disappears. Two to three weeks of managed tendinitis is being accepted as manageable in August because the magic number is six. In October, the same knee in the same batter against Flores or the equivalent will produce results that depend entirely on how well the knee has healed.

The Cruz error count is now at sixteen

Sixteen errors in a hundred and thirty-one games. The Hot Corner's patience with logging this number without editorial commentary is exhausted. Sixteen errors from the second baseman on a championship-caliber team is an objective defensive liability. The offensive production — fifteen home runs, a .289 average, thirty-five stolen bases — remains elite. The fielding is a concern that the regular season record has absorbed because the lead is large enough to make individual errors inconsequential most of the time. In postseason series, each of the sixteen errors represents the kind of mistake that changes outcomes.

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AROUND THE LEAGUE AS SEPTEMBER BEGINS

Columbus is eighty and fifty, with Flores at thirteen and six entering September. The Hot Corner notes Flores's September positioning with more precision than before: his ERA of 3.90 masks specific split data that the season-long observation suggests is worse against left-handed hitters than against the overall number indicates, and Sacramento's lineup — Choi, Lozano, Cruz — hits left-handed against most right-handed pitchers. The June 18th game established that Choi can hit Flores's curveball. Whether Choi's knee changes that equation in October is the question that replaces the abstract Flores problem with a more specific one.

Baltimore is seventy-seven and fifty-three, which is the best record in the AL East and the team Sacramento would face in the ALCS if current standings hold. Detroit is seventy-two and fifty-eight, still alive in the wild card picture. The specific Detroit offensive output against Sacramento on August 3rd — fourteen runs, nineteen hits, Rubio going five for six — is worth noting in the ALCS preview context that is now becoming relevant.

Felts and Mele are tied at forty-one home runs, one ahead of Choi at forty. The home run race the Hot Corner has been tracking since May has taken a specific turn: if Choi's knee limits his swing mechanics across September, the race may be decided by the injury more than the talent gap.

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THE INBOX

From Priya Seetharaman of Sacramento's Tahoe Park neighborhood, an aerospace engineer who says the most important concept in her field is redundancy — the principle that critical systems should have backup systems for their backup systems — who asks: "Without Medina, does this bullpen have enough redundancy for October?"

Priya, the honest answer requires distinguishing between redundancy in the regular season, where the magic number is six and the division lead is twenty-six games and a blown save costs a win that the standings can absorb, and redundancy in a five-game playoff series, where a blown save in Game Three is potentially a series-altering event. For the regular season: yes. The Benson-Esparza-Prieto configuration has been functional across this stretch. For October: the redundancy your field requires — backup systems for the backup systems — does not yet exist in this bullpen. Esparza's three appearances have been excellent. He has not pitched in a playoff game. Benson has four blown saves. Prieto has been inconsistent since July. The critical system — Medina in the ninth inning of a close postseason game — has no equivalent replacement. What Sacramento has is a functional approximation. Whether it holds under maximum load is what October will test.

From Winston Achebe of Sacramento's Meadowview neighborhood, a jazz musician who has played in the same trio for twenty years and who says the most important thing about improvisation is that you have to trust your bandmates when it's their turn to lead, who asks: "Is Jimenez finally trustworthy?"

Winston, I want to answer with the care this question deserves because I have spent six months hedging about Jimenez and I owe you a direct answer. He has not lost a game since July 3rd. His ERA is 1.42 over his last eight starts. Against Boston, against Houston twice, against San Jose, against Los Angeles twice — meaningful opponents, meaningful situations, consistent results. That is sixty days of a pitcher who has earned the word you used. What I cannot guarantee is that the improvisation holds on the night that matters most — a playoff start, a lineup he has not faced, a situation where the first inning determines the outcome. Jazz musicians know that some nights the instrument doesn't respond the way it did in rehearsal. I trust Jimenez more today than I trusted him on May 1st. I trust him more than I trusted him on July 1st. Whether that trust is fully warranted will be demonstrated in October, not before.

From Arshak Karapetian of Sacramento's Arden-Arcade neighborhood, a civil engineer who designs bridges and who says that every structure has a load at which it fails, and the job is always to make sure that load is never reached, who asks: "What is the one scenario that could end this team's season before the World Series?"

Arshak, it is the same scenario the Hot Corner has been documenting since June. A postseason matchup where a quality right-hander — specifically a starter who works sinkers and curveballs below the zone with consistent command — faces a Sacramento lineup in a deciding game, the bullpen is asked to hold a one-run lead for three innings, and the specific offensive vulnerability that Mendoza and Marin and St. Clair and Flores have exploited produces a zero-run eighth inning. Choi at full health can counter this scenario the way he countered it against Flores on June 18th. Choi with knee tendinitis changes the weight distribution of the bridge. The Hot Corner does not believe the bridge fails under that load. But it is the load point I am watching most carefully as September begins.

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Portland for three games starting September 1st. San Jose for three games starting September 5th. Musco is back. Choi's knee is being managed. Florez is three weeks from return. The magic number is six.

Ninety-two and thirty-nine. Strickler at 2.19 ERA, leading baseball. Rubalcava at fourteen wins. Jimenez undefeated since July. Andretti with fifteen wins.

The regular season ends in three weeks. October follows immediately.

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Claude Playball is a baseball insider and analyst and host of the Hot Corner podcast, based in Sacramento, California.