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#361 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Winning does indeed make everything alright for a team. It's early- not even quite May- and of course there is plenty of time for the wheels to fall off. But I'm breathing a bit of a sigh of relief at this stage of things.
The young trio of Souffront, Rondeau, and Erbakan continue to shine and are a huge part of this great start. Plus, big-name free agent signing Ryan Rodgers has been as advertised and leads the MGL in batting average at .357 and is second in OBP at .446. |
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#362 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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April 1968 Denver Brewers Team Report:
The Brewers get the season started with a 13-6 month. They are predictably once again 1st in stolen bases in the MGL, they are 3rd in runs allowed, starters ERA, and defensive efficiency, as well as in team batting average and OBP. They are 4th in runs scored and in bullpen ERA, and they are tied for 8th (again, predictably enough near the bottom) in team HR's. Who's Hoppy? Top 5 in WAR 1- Ryan "Boxy" Rodgers, 1.5 WAR. Rodgers (.355/.446/.484) has hit 6 doubles and 1 triple, has scored 9 runs and has walked 10 times and stolen 1 base. In addition, he provides gold glove defense in centerfield. 2- Ruben "Streak" Souffront, 1.1 WAR. Souffront (.309/.329/.500) continues to develop into one of the most valuable members of the team. He has 2 doubles, 1 triple, and 3 HR's, and has driven in 10 runs while scoring 8. He also has 7 stolen bases while being caught twice. 3- Pat Rondeau, 1.1 WAR. In a non-starting role young Mr. Rondeau continues to impress. Pat (.333/.341/.429) has collected a pair of doubles and 1 triple, has driven in 6 runs and stolen a base in his only attempt and continues to provide sterling defense at all three outfield positions. 4- Chad Brown, 0.7 WAR. Although Brown's offensive production is off a bit so far this season (.254/.303/.296), he has scored 7 runs, hit 1 double and 1 triple, and stolen 3 bases without being caught trying yet. In addition, he is a superlative defender at shortstop. 5- Daniel Torres and Antonio Puente, 0.6 WAR each. Torres continues to be the ace of the pitching staff, having gone 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.76 WHIP, while striking out 24 batters and walking 10. Puente (.208/.309/.333) has struggled thus far at the plate and has not produced a single HR, but does have 4 doubles, 1 triple, 8 RBI and continues to be a gifted defensive leftfielder. Who's Hungover? Bottom of 5 in WAR 1- Jamel McNeil, -0.4 WAR. The dominant reliever we signed as a free agent, the one who is so bad in the clubhouse, well, he hasn't been so good on the field thus far either. McNeil (2-1, 3 svs, 2.53) has struggled with his control thus far, walking 6 while striking out 9 and has a very poor (particularly in this year of anemic ERA's and WHIP's) 1.41 WHIP. He has at times looked like his dominant self and I assume this will all even out over time, but a bit disappointing so far. 2- Sam Rogers, Hector Uribe, Steve Alonso, Chris Healy, and Jason Lawson, all tied at -0.2 WAR. Captain and catcher, Rogers (.118/.224/.176) hasn't really hit a lick this season, though he did hit one big HR and has walked 7 times. Problem is, he's not that great behind the plate so when he isn't hitting he is mostly just good for his leadership skills. Uribe (.152/.220/.196), a fine fielding thirdbaseman, has had a few key hits but overall he has done little at the plate. Alonso's numbers (3-0, 2.02) look pretty darn good but his WHIP is 1.31 as he has allowed 9 walks while striking out 18 batters and his FIP is pretty poor too so in this current pitching rich context he doesn't fare well in terms of WAR. Healy has had a few rough outings and has a 4.91 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. But he hasn't pitched much and this will likely get better over time. Ancient starter Jason Lawson has only been used once and was just horrible. Lawson (0-1, 7.94) was once the ace of the staff but he is a shell of his former self and likely will see little action this season. What's Brewing Around the League? The Columbus Whalers are off to the best start in the WPK with a 13-5 mark. They lead the SJL by 1 1/2 games over Jacksonville (10-5), by 2 over reigning champs Washington (12-8) and by 3 over Seattle (11-9). Our Brewers lead the MGL by 1 1/2 games over both San Francisco and surprising Charlotte (11-7) and have a 3 game lead over also surprising Detroit (10-9.) The Streak Souffront Saga: as you can see above in Who's Hoppy, all is well on the Souffront front. Brewers' Power Ranking: #2 (#1 COL, #3 S.F., #4 JAC, #5 WAS.) Brewers' Record: 13-6,.684, 1st place, MGL. Last edited by BirdWatcher; 09-30-2018 at 10:25 PM. |
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#363 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Uh-oh, what's this about some signs of unrest in the dugout in the midst of an easy win against the reigning MGL champs Portland?
One great sign in this game: Antonio Puente finally got HR #1 for the 1968 season and it was a mammoth blast. Hopefully he gets on one of his longball streaks. (As for clubhouse cohesion, all signs are still good. Waiting for the other shoe to drop on this one.) |
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#364 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 1,937
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Enjoying the excellent coverage!
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Julien Henri Version 21 https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...22#post4626122 Michigan Town Ball https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...28#post4630528 |
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#365 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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I suppose I knew it was inevitable, the drop back towards .500.
After 5 straight losses it feels right now like the team is running uphill in muck. Thankfully so far clubhouse dissension does not seem to be surfacing. Yet. But we could really use a win right now. |
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#366 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Yet another tough loss but this one did remind me that I forgot earlier to report on the off-season return of Arturo Baca to the Brewers organization. Baca (none of you will likely recall
![]() Baca came to the club again in a trade with Philadelphia that sent formerly promising Brewers reliever Bill Roache to the Mud Hens. And lately Baca has probably been the best hitter on the team. (Though Pat Rondeau is still doing very well also.) Unfortunately, in this game Baca was not only 3 for 5 but in his last at-bat he struck out with the bases loaded to end the game. Still, he's a superior defender and great runner and has been hitting quite well as a bonus. At this point, with Jose Bravo continuing to struggle at the plate, Baca may have taken over his role as defensive specialist and all-purpose infield backup. Baca does not have the outfield skills that Bravo has but with four solid outfielders on the team and two natural centerfielders playing firstbase (Shelton and Erbakan), Bravo is likely expendable and his time in a Brewers uniform may be nearing an end. |
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#367 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Have taken a bit of a pause in the action partly due to new player draft pool being released and wanting to take a bit of a deep dive look at that. (Will report more on that tonight, probably.) But also as I needed a bit of a breather from the frustration of this team plummeting down into mediocrity again after such a good start to the 1968 season.
Still reasons to be optimistic for the future: Ruben Souffront continues to look like a solid player, Pat Rondeau continues to, if anything, exceed expectations, Chad Brown continues to develop towards excellence in the field as a shortstop and is solid at the plate, the starting pitching staff is solid and fairly deep if not exactly spectacular, and the bullpen is mostly pretty excellent (Miguel Solis continues to be unhittable). Team defense is great as is team speed. Backup infielder Arturo Baca, re-acquired in the offseason, has been a real bright spot. And big-name free agent Ryan Rodgers has been pretty much as advertised. But also, there is this, which is what I find myself thinking about today: Bobby Erbakan. The young firstbaseman, currently ranked (if IRC) the 10th best prospect in the WPK, having recently turned 21 has been in something of a slump at the plate of late. But what I've also noticed is this: our scouting team has recently taken an even more optimistic view of his potential and see him as a superstar in the making. I'm taking this with a grain of salt but it is interesting to me in terms of the mysteries of player development. Erbakan was often (nearly always) unhappy (often outright angry) during his time in the minors. His numbers were usually pretty good to great, but his teams were not, and he seemed often unhappy with his role on the team. He clearly has a high view of himself and his talents as even now, as a young player scuffling at the plate on the major league team, he expects to be a starting player. But he's also happy. In terms of ratings alone, I felt that I might have rushed him to the majors. But I also felt that keeping him in the minors much longer might have soured him and stunted his progress. So here he is, showing flashes of great potential but also struggling mightily at times (while, admittedly, playing great defense) and he's happy and looks to be on track for a great career. Maybe. Did I take the right approach, largely just on instinct? Or will I regret not getting him more seasoning at AAA? Only time will tell. But it's the sort of mystery that makes me love this game. And the sort of thing that I feel is part of my learning curve. One which I embrace. |
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#368 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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The Brewers have the 8th pick in the upcoming new player draft.
According to both our scouting team and the OSA staff, 21-year old St. Louis College reliever Jason Gottula is the player in the draft pool most likely to be a star in the WPK. The knock against Gottula though is that his character is questionable and he might not be a team player. Speculation is that at best he will be a very talented but selfish player while at worst he might well be a clubhouse cancer. Likely the Brewers will not have to worry about making the difficult choice of whether to take a chance on him in spite of his bad reputation as he should be gone before our first pick. Among the players that the Brewers scouting staff seem pretty high on who might possibly still be available at #8 are good-hitting firstbaseman Shawn Hanl, who has excellent power potential and could also be an exceptional outfielder though with a weak arm. Hanl receives much praise for his hard work and team-first attitude. Also high on the wish-list for the Brewers scouting staff is starting pitcher Steve Green. Although Green isn't thought to have ace potential, he is known to already have a very well-developed cutter with at least two other pitches that are likely to develop into highly effective offerings and could well eventually be a solid #2 guy on most staffs. |
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#369 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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A few other players the Brewers would be happy to draft this year are:
1- Centerfielder Blake Reese. Reese doesn't project as a star in the WPK but he does have good raw talent- speed, a good glove, and a decent bat with advanced skills in avoiding the whiff. With his solid work ethic and general good character the thought is that he might exceed expectations. 2- Starting pitcher Noah Tarver. Tarver is a big guy with a power arm, though he isn't projected to be a premier strikeout guy. He is felt though to have great movement with his pitches along with solid control. Although he only is projected have one real out pitch, he does have a good arsenal of four other pitches, a few of which could still develop into solid offerings. He is also admired for his leadership skills. 3- Starting pitcher Jose Mendoza. The Brewers scouting staff seems a little less high on this guy than the OSA, but there is still much they like. The thought is that Mendoza could end up with near-elite stuff but might not develop the movement on his pitches that the scouts would want to see at the major league level. On the other hand, Mendoza already has a well-above average fastball and it is believed that of his three other pitches at least two- the curveball and the slider-project to potentially be plus pitches. And with his drive to better himself it is felt he might be able to maximize his potential. Likely it might be a bit of reach to take him with the #8 overall pick, but should he somehow slip down to the Brewers next pick, #28 overall in the supplemental first round, they would be overjoyed to draft him at that point. |
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#370 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Looking over the draft pool for 1968 made me start to think about the previous few drafts and the fate of the first round draft picks from those drafts.
Since we are really only a few season into the WPK, there is no way to measure long-term outcomes from any of the draft classes. But I did find myself curious just to see how first round draftees from 1965-1967 are faring thus far, which ones have made the big leagues already, which, if any, are no longer playing professionally, and how the progress of everyone else is looking. A few things I found out in looking this over: 1- A single first-round pick from the past three drafts has indeed already hung up the cleats: shortstop Ray Mahony who was chosen #8 overall by Brooklyn in the 1966 draft. For reasons unknown, Mahony played in just a handful of games in the Rookie league in 1966, was named the 70th best prospect in the WPK the following Spring, but never played professionally after that, retiring in May of 1967. 2- On the other hand, the 1966 draft is the one that has thus far produced the most players who have already made major league rosters: three. Foremost among them is the #1 pick overall that year- starting pitcher Mike Stagner. Stagner has made 6 appearances thus far this season for the Milwaukee Cadets. Though he is currently pitching out of the 'pen, it is still felt that Stagner is a future ace in the starting rotation. 3- The Brewers currently have 4 first round picks from the 1965 draft in their farm system. But more about that in the next post. |
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#371 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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About those 1965 first-rounders that the Brewers are stockpiling.
The first of course is the guy we picked that year, at #16 overall, Jaden Francis. Although Francis was picked as a starting pitcher it is clear that he will never be developing an effective third pitch and he has mostly pitched out of the bullpen in the minors. His results have been inconsistent and his numbers often pretty bad, but the scouting staff believes that he is developing well and should eventually be a solid member of the Brewers bullpen, likely as a set-up man. The other three all came to the Brewers through trades in the past two years. The player closest to being a Brewer is reliever Dave Harder, who was the 11th overall pick in 1965 (by Brooklyn). Harder, a Denver native, has also had a bit of roller-coaster ride in the minors, but the feeling at this point is that he is destined to be an effective closer in the majors once he matures a bit more. Starting pitching prospect Rob Ibarra was chosen #8 overall in 1965 (by Milwaukee) and is currently listed at #23 on the WPK Prospects list. Ibarra has been plagued by a series of not terribly serious injuries the past few seasons but has put up pretty solid numbers when healthy. Most intriguingly, the Brewers recently acquired George Alexander in trade. Alexander was the #3 pick in the 1965 draft and the player most coveted at the time by the Brewers. When he was drafted out of Nazareth Academy High School by the Washington Night Train he looked like a can't-miss prospect. And indeed he put up great numbers his first season in Rookie ball. He took a bit of a step backwards when he was elevated to the next level (Short-season A) that year and spent time in 1967 in both Rookie and S A levels with decreasing results. In April of 1966 Alexander was considered the 17th best prospect in the WPK. And then, for reasons somewhat mysterious, his stock just started falling. He's a guy with still decent raw tools. He is reputed to have a great approach to the game and is loved by fans for his hustle and smarts. But at this point it appears that his ceiling is a bench role in the majors. The Brewers are hoping, against the odds likely, that he can rekindle some of his former glory and they will be giving him every chance to move up the ladder and put on the Brewer purple in the future. Last edited by BirdWatcher; 10-03-2018 at 11:28 PM. |
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#372 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 1,937
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Less negative impact on a winning team.
__________________
Julien Henri Version 21 https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...22#post4626122 Michigan Town Ball https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...28#post4630528 |
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#373 |
All Star Starter
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Sarasota
Posts: 1,937
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Rodgers...awesome signing. Add 12 W's and subtract 12 L's.
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Julien Henri Version 21 https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...22#post4626122 Michigan Town Ball https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...28#post4630528 |
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#374 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Yes, and I was hoping that with the new additions to the team this year and the continued development of some of our younger players that we might be winning enough to counteract the impact.
Plus, we have two captains and a few other solid leaders. And so far overall morale has remained pretty good. But. But (and I haven't fully reported on this yet) we just suffered a double-digit loss streak and have dropped a few games under .500. So trouble could be on the horizon. My hope is that if the team doesn't turn it around soon (took an 18-inning marathon win on the road to break the losing streak) and if dissension starts to rear its ugly head, I might be able to deal McNeil given that he is a premiere talent- even if in a relatively less important role- and that the contract we were able to sign him to was not that team/budget unfriendly. I'm sure we couldn't get comparable value, but I would be okay with getting a slightly above average thirdbaseman with some power if the economic trade-off was nearly equal. Or (given an injury about which the diagnosis is pending from that 18-inning win), a decent mid-to-back-end of the rotation starting pitcher. Given how solid the bullpen is and how many good prospects we have coming up at that position, it probably wouldn't be that big a tragedy to just move McNeil along. As good as he is on the field (and he has been looking more like the old dominant Jamel of late), I won't be that crushed to send him packing if needed, especially if it becomes clear that we really won't contend this season. |
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#375 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Agreed. This signing I am not regretting. I just wish we had a bit more power hitting around him. The team hits pretty well but doesn't turn that into run scoring at nearly the rate that is needed.
Only other trick with the Rodgers signing is that Pat Rondeau continues to look like an over-achiever and with Rodgers solidly planted in centerfield there isn't anywhere for Rondeau to start. He is the only pure outfielder currently on the roster outside of the three starters (Puente, Rodgers, Souffront) so I'm getting him as many starts as possible, giving breathers to the starters. The good news is that he excels at all three outfield positions. In fact, with his strong arm, he might be best suited to right, but he will never have the power bat one would want for a corner OF starter. (And Souffront might, though that isn't entirely clear yet.) Too many good outfielders is a nice problem to have, I realize. But I do like this Rondeau kid and don't really want to use him as trade bait. Not yet anyway. |
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#376 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Okay, this is another somewhat tangential/how the sausages are made post. (And maybe partly serves as an explanation for why no progress has been reported here for several days.)
So, if you don't really like it when one of these threads veers away from the fictional "reality" into gaming theory (or whatever you wish to call it) or you don't really care about how the sausages are made, you might want to just skip this one. Okay, for the one or two of you still here: This is a little update about the process by which I am creating players who are relatives of current WPK players for insertion into the WPK universe either now or at some point in the future. I have discussed this a bit here in the past as well as in a separate thread here in the Fictional Simulations folder. So I'll try not to recap too much. But the upshot is that I have created (or am still creating) a process by which I will periodically create new players for a later draft who will be biologically related to existing WPK players. These might be contemporary relatives like brothers or cousins but more often they will be sons or grandsons. At the time that the created relative is identified (very distinct from when they will actually appear in the WPK universe) I am also identifying the primary position they will play as well as what kind of player they will be. And when I say what kind, I mean what type, or maybe even more accurately, what archetype. Without going too deep into the weeds on this, among pitchers that would include two types of hard throwers (I call them Flame Throwers), those with poor control and those with poor movement. It would include two types of control pitchers- junk-ballers and corner-painters, two types of deceptive pitchers- the consistent (deceptive delivery, generally side-armers and submariners), and the inconsistent (usually knuckleballers). Another type is the Lifer. These are generally the high loyalty, high leader, high intelligence guys who eventually become coaches, managers, etc. Then there is the workhorse. Pretty self-explanatory. And the Steady Eddie. Solid pitcher, solid guy, nothing special. Does the job. And finally, the Super-Star. That one's pretty self explanatory too. Among position players I am creating the following types/archetypes: the speedster, the defensive whiz, the slugger, the utility-man, Mr. Steady (pretty much the Steady Eddie of position players), the scrapper (think Billy Martin), the Lifer (same as above), the walking man (think Eddie Yost), and, of course, the Super-Star. And now to get to the point. As this player creation/editing players ratings things is still new to me I am trying to get the hang of it before I start populating the WPK with too many of these guys. So to that end I have been inserting them (by them, I mean one of several ratings templates I am building for each category) into a Random Debut historical league that I had set up awhile ago but hadn't done much with. Basically, for the past several days I have been creating/editing fictional players into this historical league, at least one player from each of the types listed above (various positions) and then simming about ten years at a time until I get to a point where all of these players are retired. Then looking at the results to see what I need to tweak. I've had two batches of players move through this process now (advancing my league from, IIRC, 1954 to 1999. My first batch of super-stars- a starting pitcher, a shortstop, and an outfielder, were monsters. Decided I better tone that down a bit. The starting pitcher still has the highest career WAR among pitchers in the league history and is second in career wins (behind only Tommy John.) The shortstop still has the highest career WAR among batters. The outfielder is still among the career leaders in several categories and I believe first in a few less attention grabbing ones. Second time around my super-star pitcher (a closer) suffered significant injuries and never even made the majors. And my super-star catcher had a long, great career but will probably not quite make the HOF. (The three above were all first-ballot HOF'ers.) I found that I had made my utility guys a bit too good and several of them become solid starters in the bigs. So adjusting down a bit there. Can't seem to create a scrapper yet who gets more then that tiniest cup-of-coffee in the bigs. Still working on perfecting this. And sluggers, even with not great ratings in other areas, are hard to keep down. Though one of the sluggers in the first batch only played very briefly in the majors but hit nearly 400 career minor league HR's. Overall though, I'm happy with the results. A good number of these guys never make the majors, as it should be. Quite a few others have just brief careers in the bigs. There are the requisite solid 10-12 year starters. There have been some nice surprises- both in the sense of highly rated players flaming out and in lower rated players having nice little careers. And, as I said, a few crazy great once-in-a-generation types. I'm working on toning that down. Still, it's pretty fun to watch. If any of this is interesting to you (particularly in the sense of the non-created, historical players- here's a tease, Willie Mays retired as the HR king with 708 bombs) I think I might be posting some of this in a thread in the Historical Simulations folder in the next few days. And if anybody has any questions about the methodology of this process, I'd always be happy to elaborate more. Thanks for listening. ![]() |
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#377 | |
Major Leagues
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 477
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Quote:
Sent from my LGLS755 using Tapatalk |
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#378 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Quote:
In my most recent batch of created players, the stud (Super-Star) starting pitcher just made the majors in (IIRC) his third pro season but then suffered a significant injury (torn UCL). He is young and maybe will make a full recovery and go on to be HOF caliber, but then again, maybe this is the beginning of the end. And a few position players who had quite decent to good potential ratings upon being created, but poor character traits, have failed to develop. Still testing and tweaking, but starting to get a pretty good variance of results. I'll keep you posted. Last edited by BirdWatcher; 10-10-2018 at 02:35 PM. |
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#379 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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As mentioned earlier, after losing 10 straight the Brewers finally got a win again- in an 18-inning marathon in Detroit. But it proved a costly victory as starting pitcher Diego Ramirez, probably the ace of the staff thus far in 1968, was lost to a flare-up of elbow inflammation and is expected to miss nearly six weeks.
There is even talk that closer Jamel McNeil, who has great stamina but only two pitches (both great) might be pressed into a start or two while the team waits for Ramirez to heal. May continues to be a tough month for the Brewers as they follow up this win by losing both ends of a doubleheader to Detroit and then drop 2 of 3 in Charlotte. Co-captains Sam Rogers and Abel Pennington seem to be keeping the clubhouse together thus far but there are real questions about just how far their leadership can go in keeping the peace, particularly with the disruptive presence of McNeil and a few seemingly unmotivated players in veteran pitcher Jason Lawson and young firstbaseman Erik Shelton. This team needs to turn things around soon or major changes might be needed. |
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#380 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 4,263
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Starting pitcher Bobby Arends, brought up from AAA recently due to the Ramirez injury, continues to perform better than expected and helps lead the team to a narrow victory over Detroit in front of the home-town fans.
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