A Plethora of Shutouts - Page 2

mlyons · 06-07-2006, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPFALCON

I have use of relievers and closers set at very often...however, I did set the endurance rating to normal. I would not have thought that adjusting a strategic tendency to normal would create such an anomoly. What kind of games would be simulated if pitcher endurance was set at High or Very High then?

I would think that a pitchers endurance rating set at normal should not affect the game like this.

Setting it to low as the default makes sense if you consider that the default is supposed to simulate 2006-style MLB. Complete games are at an historical low right now. Pitcher endurance at high or very high will most likely give you deadball-style pitchers -- the only times they were pulled from games were when they were ineffective, not because of fatigue. About half of all starts were complete games then.

Raidergoo · 06-07-2006, 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPFALCON

I have use of relievers and closers set at very often...however, I did set the endurance rating to normal. I would not have thought that adjusting a strategic tendency to normal would create such an anomoly. What kind of games would be simulated if pitcher endurance was set at High or Very High then?

I would think that a pitchers endurance rating set at normal should not affect the game like this.

Hey, did you make a quickstart of this?

If so, change endurance back.

If not, can you make a league up real quick, set to default, and let it run until, say May 15th? Post some screenies again, they help with troubleshooting.

JPFALCON · 06-07-2006, 06:18 PM

Here is the info on replaying the first month with pitchers endurance set to low...

Complete game shutouts did drop from 42 to 32 in the first month

JPFALCON · 06-07-2006, 06:22 PM

...but relievers now picked up the slack as team shutouts actually increased by a couple....

battists · 06-08-2006, 09:58 AM

This is actually TT# 1724, not the # posted by Raidergoo earlier.

I think we're having trouble comparing apples to apples here. Let's try this:

Anyone who wants to help, create a MLB-based standard league. Delete the minors, so you can sim faster. Leave all of the other settings on default, and sim a season.

1. How many team shutouts were there?
2. How many individual complete game shutouts were there?

According to Mlyons, 261 team shutouts is a decent benchmark for #1, 63 for #2.

Let's first figure out if this is producing plausible numbers before we start messing with endurance settings and such.

Thanks.

Steve

JPFALCON · 06-08-2006, 06:22 PM

Well I just finished simming a year with default settings and the numbers of shutouts are askew, I believe even for the "deadball era"....

279 complete game shutouts..the first two stats pages are shown but 5 pages worth of pitchers hurled at least one shutout....

JPFALCON · 06-08-2006, 06:24 PM

...and 448 team shutouts were thrown......

Raidergoo · 06-08-2006, 06:28 PM

Real world 2005 had 148 NL SHO and 113 AL SHO. 261 total, which does not come close to 448.

I think one of your initial theories may hold water, that this is a byproduct of a 6.5 roster being imported. Too many CG.

I will do a sim on this tonight with a DB.

JPFALCON · 06-08-2006, 06:37 PM

Edit...misread post...will do another sim with default roster though I guess it will turn out ok because no one else has complained about this

Raidergoo · 06-08-2006, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPFALCON

Are we reading the same column?....I see AL with 197 shoutouts and NL with 251....I do not even see your numbers in any of the totals columns....

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL_2005.shtml

It might have helped to say that I was comparing real life stats to your fictionals.

JPFALCON · 06-08-2006, 06:47 PM

so I didn't misread your post....we'll get on the same page sooner or later...

Solonor · 06-08-2006, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by battists

This is actually TT# 1724, not the # posted by Raidergoo earlier.

I think we're having trouble comparing apples to apples here. Let's try this:

Anyone who wants to help, create a MLB-based standard league. Delete the minors, so you can sim faster. Leave all of the other settings on default, and sim a season.

1. How many team shutouts were there?
2. How many individual complete game shutouts were there?

According to Mlyons, 261 team shutouts is a decent benchmark for #1, 63 for #2.

Let's first figure out if this is producing plausible numbers before we start messing with endurance settings and such.

Thanks.

Steve

I am seeing overpowering pitching in all my conversion tests, too. So, I thought I would jump in here and test the benchmark per your parameters.

1. I got 96 Shutouts in the AL and 140 in the NL. 236 total.
2. 82 individual shutouts.

So, I think the benchmark is reasonable. Sounds like a conversion issue.

Now all I need is help figuring out how to tweak the conversion!

Solonor · 06-08-2006, 08:35 PM

By way of comparison, my imported league, which consist of six 4-team divisions in two sub-leagues, using the same MLE came up with a total of 421 team shutouts and 153 individual shutouts.

JPFALCON · 06-08-2006, 08:39 PM

I just concluded a default roster season and the numbers did indeed drop, much in accordance to what Solonar posted:

AL - 97
NL - 130
Complete shutouts - 95

So it must be indeed a roster conversion problem..

Solonor · 06-09-2006, 05:47 PM

I just tried importing the same league again. Only this time I did not create minors, and I shut off ghost players, injuries, financials, spring training, and anything else that would cause the AI to move players around or mess with the imported teams. Plus, I wanted it to go really fast.

What I noticed when I imported was that the League Totals in the MLE were not the totals from my league, nor were they the totals that get loaded when you start up a default MAL game. So, I changed them to be the totals for the end of last season in our league.

Here are the results:

174 team shutouts in one sub-league, 160 in the other. 334 total.
143 individual shutouts.

Slightly better, but not quite there. I'm still not sure if it's the ratings that the players are getting post-conversion that's causing the problem or the MLE settings.

Solonor · 06-09-2006, 05:57 PM

Oh yeah, and they don't match the results for last season in 6.5, either. We had 86 team shutouts.

Solonor · 06-09-2006, 06:24 PM

Eureka!

I fiddled with the MLE's. Nothing I was doing seemed to work until I changed JUST the strikeouts to be .800. Everything else was left alone, and magically all my stats look right!!

james17 · 06-09-2006, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solonor

Eureka!

I fiddled with the MLE's. Nothing I was doing seemed to work until I changed JUST the strikeouts to be .800. Everything else was left alone, and magically all my stats look right!!

Very interesting. Do your team K's look good now too?

Solonor · 06-09-2006, 06:30 PM

Yep. Nobody over 300K.

Raidergoo · 06-09-2006, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Solonor

Eureka!

I fiddled with the MLE's. Nothing I was doing seemed to work until I changed JUST the strikeouts to be .800. Everything else was left alone, and magically all my stats look right!!

Interesting data point. Have to bring that one up.

06-07-2006, 06:18 PM	#23
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	Here is the info on replaying the first month with pitchers endurance set to low... Complete game shutouts did drop from 42 to 32 in the first month Attached Images

06-07-2006, 06:22 PM	#24
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	...but relievers now picked up the slack as team shutouts actually increased by a couple.... Attached Images

06-08-2006, 06:22 PM	#26
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	Well I just finished simming a year with default settings and the numbers of shutouts are askew, I believe even for the "deadball era".... 279 complete game shutouts..the first two stats pages are shown but 5 pages worth of pitchers hurled at least one shutout.... Attached Images

06-08-2006, 06:24 PM	#27
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	...and 448 team shutouts were thrown...... Attached Images

06-08-2006, 06:28 PM	#28
Raidergoo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Posts: 9,005	Real world 2005 had 148 NL SHO and 113 AL SHO. 261 total, which does not come close to 448. I think one of your initial theories may hold water, that this is a byproduct of a 6.5 roster being imported. Too many CG. I will do a sim on this tonight with a DB. Last edited by Raidergoo; 06-08-2006 at 06:43 PM.

06-08-2006, 09:58 AM	#25
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	This is actually TT# 1724, not the # posted by Raidergoo earlier. I think we're having trouble comparing apples to apples here. Let's try this: Anyone who wants to help, create a MLB-based standard league. Delete the minors, so you can sim faster. Leave all of the other settings on default, and sim a season. 1. How many team shutouts were there? 2. How many individual complete game shutouts were there? According to Mlyons, 261 team shutouts is a decent benchmark for #1, 63 for #2. Let's first figure out if this is producing plausible numbers before we start messing with endurance settings and such. Thanks. Steve

06-08-2006, 06:37 PM	#29
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	Edit...misread post...will do another sim with default roster though I guess it will turn out ok because no one else has complained about this Last edited by JPFALCON; 06-08-2006 at 06:46 PM.

06-08-2006, 06:47 PM	#31
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	so I didn't misread your post....we'll get on the same page sooner or later...

06-08-2006, 08:35 PM	#33
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,459	By way of comparison, my imported league, which consist of six 4-team divisions in two sub-leagues, using the same MLE came up with a total of 421 team shutouts and 153 individual shutouts. __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams

06-08-2006, 08:39 PM	#34
JPFALCON Minors (Single A) Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 54	I just concluded a default roster season and the numbers did indeed drop, much in accordance to what Solonar posted: AL - 97 NL - 130 Complete shutouts - 95 So it must be indeed a roster conversion problem..

06-09-2006, 05:47 PM	#35
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,459	I just tried importing the same league again. Only this time I did not create minors, and I shut off ghost players, injuries, financials, spring training, and anything else that would cause the AI to move players around or mess with the imported teams. Plus, I wanted it to go really fast. What I noticed when I imported was that the League Totals in the MLE were not the totals from my league, nor were they the totals that get loaded when you start up a default MAL game. So, I changed them to be the totals for the end of last season in our league. Here are the results: 174 team shutouts in one sub-league, 160 in the other. 334 total. 143 individual shutouts. Slightly better, but not quite there. I'm still not sure if it's the ratings that the players are getting post-conversion that's causing the problem or the MLE settings. __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams

06-09-2006, 05:57 PM	#36
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,459	Oh yeah, and they don't match the results for last season in 6.5, either. We had 86 team shutouts. __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams

06-09-2006, 06:24 PM	#37
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,459	Eureka! I fiddled with the MLE's. Nothing I was doing seemed to work until I changed JUST the strikeouts to be .800. Everything else was left alone, and magically all my stats look right!! __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams

06-09-2006, 06:30 PM	#39
Solonor Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Maine Posts: 4,459	Yep. Nobody over 300K. __________________ Solonor's Groovy Computer Baseball League - Making baseball a hobbit since 2003! "Beings will come, Frodo. The one constant through all the years has been baseball. Middle Earth has rolled by like an army of Mumakil. It has been erased like a slate, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Frodo. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again. Oh... beings will come Frodo. Beings will most definitely come." - Gladden Field of Dreams