I Know Player Dev Isn't Broken...

[SandMan]

I think that the player development is quite accurate. Look through the baseball encyclopedia or Lahmans database and see how many players play only 3-6 years and are out of baseball by 27 or 28. I think the game actually lets players hang on too long. There should be some kind of curve where there are x number of youngsters and x number of older players with the majority being in the center. If you play the game you will see that the league gets older each year and it is possible to have the league average age at 30 with 7-10 seasons. This is not realistic.

The game does not "retire" enough scrub players that should be out of baseball by 26-27. These are the players that in real life are replaced with a cheaper and younger option. Teams need these scrub types. OOTP creates too many good/average players. I think the game should have more scrub players that only last a few years, average every day players that can play but are usually done after their skills get below average (usually done by age 30-32) and stars and superstars that have a natural peak but with skills that allow them to play into their late 30's or maybe even their 40's (in a modern league).

I don't think that development is broken except that too many average players seem to hang on too long not letting more youngsters into the league. I know that I am in a minority on this but after reviewing Lahmans I feel that player development errs on the side of letting too many players hang on and not the other way around. I think that people are so used to the older versions which "guaranteed" you a star player if you had the first draft choice. The way it is now is closer to real life, it is a crap shoot.

[ovccsteve]

Originally Posted by SandMan

I think that the player development is quite accurate. Look through the baseball encyclopedia or Lahmans database and see how many players play only 3-6 years and are out of baseball by 27 or 28.

Simple. Name ONE. Not some scrub. Name one player who was an all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday and who was out of the game completely by 29 without any injuries. Now realize that this is happening in my league at a rate of over one player per season.

Are scrubs hanging on to long? Never paid attention. Are lots of scrubs only around a couple years in real life? Sure. How does it match up with OOTP? Not really concerned. But I am concerned when player after player falls completely off the table in less than one year. When a guy has a .393 OBP at age 26 and by the following spring is so bad he can't get 50 at bats. That is a problem and it hurts the believability of a great game.

[Antonin]

It is definitely a problem when several of your starters suddenly experience sharp declines all at the same time.

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by Antonin

It is definitely a problem when several of your starters suddenly experience sharp declines all at the same time.

Yeah, ask the Padres.

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Simple. Name ONE. Not some scrub. Name one player who was an all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday and who was out of the game completely by 29 without any injuries. Now realize that this is happening in my league at a rate of over one player per season.

Are scrubs hanging on to long? Never paid attention. Are lots of scrubs only around a couple years in real life? Sure. How does it match up with OOTP? Not really concerned. But I am concerned when player after player falls completely off the table in less than one year. When a guy has a .393 OBP at age 26 and by the following spring is so bad he can't get 50 at bats. That is a problem and it hurts the believability of a great game.

I'm not going to go perusing through OPS or OBP records to find someone who had a .393 OBP and didn't play the following year, but here are some rookie of the year winners, who didn't amount to much, some out of baseball by age 30, some rarely played after their sophomore year:

Dontrelle Willis
Todd Hollandsworth
Jason Jennings
Scott Williamson
Angel Berroa
Ben Grieve (who fits your bill almost exactly)
Marty Cordova
Bob Hamelin (.388 OBP at 26, next year was .278, out of baseball by 30)
Pat Listach

Those are almost all in the last 25 or so years.

[JWay]

play with ratings, off and you'll get less pissed off when the game works correctly

[BleacherBum]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Simple. Name ONE. Not some scrub. Name one player who was an all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday and who was out of the game completely by 29 without any injuries.

Well, to begin with, there aren't many players that qualify as "all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday". There are more examples of players who peaked around 27 and were done by 31.

A quick can of players who recently turned 30 that are out of baseball turned up Marcus Giles. All-Star and 18th in MVP voting at age 25 (2003 season) and 26th in MVP at age 27. His last season was 2007, and he didn't play this year.

[ovccsteve]

Originally Posted by akw4572

I'm not going to go perusing through OPS or OBP records to find someone who had a .393 OBP and didn't play the following year, but here are some rookie of the year winners, who didn't amount to much, some out of baseball by age 30, some rarely played after their sophomore year:.

Dontrelle Willis--Overworked his arm. Pitcher. Somewhat good comp but I was talking about hitters.
Todd Hollandsworth--One fluke year and still played into his 30's.
Jason Jennings--Pitcher, threw over 200 inning at 27
Scott Williamson-Pitcher, still playing into his 30's
Angel Berroa--One fluke season, still played until 30
Ben Grieve--That's one hitter comp
Marty Cordova--25-yr-old rookie, played into his 30's
Bob Hamelin 26-yr-old rookie, never even got 400 ab in that season
Pat Listach--One fluke season. Never got 400 ab after rookie year.

One comp. Thing is, he's the exception that proves the rule. In the real world, players who establish themselves as stars before 24 stay stars unless something drastic happens (drugs, injury). Bill James established the truth twenty years ago and it hasn't been refuted. It's why Grieve is such a headscratcher. And he's probably pretty much alone in the last ten years at least. And in my game I had six playing on the same team.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Simple. Name ONE. Not some scrub. Name one player who was an all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday and who was out of the game completely by 29 without any injuries. Now realize that this is happening in my league at a rate of over one player per season.

Are scrubs hanging on to long? Never paid attention. Are lots of scrubs only around a couple years in real life? Sure. How does it match up with OOTP? Not really concerned. But I am concerned when player after player falls completely off the table in less than one year. When a guy has a .393 OBP at age 26 and by the following spring is so bad he can't get 50 at bats. That is a problem and it hurts the believability of a great game.

Two points on this:

1. You have injuries turned off so the game makes player talent hits more or less completely random. If you want to turn that off entirely, you've been told how. The game apparently needs the entropy provided by injuries to regulate itself.

2. Alvin Davis was really, really bad after age 29 and only stayed in the league because real life managers aren't able to look at a player's ratings.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Simple. Name ONE. Not some scrub. Name one player who was an all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday and who was out of the game completely by 29 without any injuries. Now realize that this is happening in my league at a rate of over one player per season.

Are scrubs hanging on to long? Never paid attention. Are lots of scrubs only around a couple years in real life? Sure. How does it match up with OOTP? Not really concerned. But I am concerned when player after player falls completely off the table in less than one year. When a guy has a .393 OBP at age 26 and by the following spring is so bad he can't get 50 at bats. That is a problem and it hurts the believability of a great game.

There must be something in the league set up. I checked players who retired early (before age 35) in my solo league. Pitchers were filtered to 150 games and batters to 1500 AB to capture players that had actual careers vs cup of coffee types. This produced 40 pitchers and 39 batters.

Of the batters, 6 had CEI. Another 4 or 5 had several LT injuries leading to decline. Only 2 qualified as flameouts IMO.

Of the pitchers only one had a CEI none had multiple injuries (that is a separate problem) and three could be considered flameouts.

What are your player development and aging mods set at? It is possible that your development mods are causing players to be too good too soon. That would increase the likelihood of flameouts IMO.

See my player dev settings below.

[SandMan]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Simple. Name ONE. Not some scrub. Name one player who was an all-star caliber player for two years prior to his 25th birthday and who was out of the game completely by 29 without any injuries. Now realize that this is happening in my league at a rate of over one player per season.

Are scrubs hanging on to long? Never paid attention. Are lots of scrubs only around a couple years in real life? Sure. How does it match up with OOTP? Not really concerned. But I am concerned when player after player falls completely off the table in less than one year. When a guy has a .393 OBP at age 26 and by the following spring is so bad he can't get 50 at bats. That is a problem and it hurts the believability of a great game.

These guys were Rookie of the Year - each with .350+ OBP. Walton did play until his early 30's but was done at 27. Charboneau had one fluke season and was out of baseball by age 27. Listach was out of the game at 29......

Joe Charboneau
Jerome Walton
Pat Listach


The game creates too many players that have great seasons early. Too many hitting 30 plus homers at age 22 or 23 when this is not common in real life.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by SandMan

These guys were Rookie of the Year - each with .350+ OBP. Walton did play until his early 30's but was done at 27. Charboneau had one fluke season and was out of baseball by age 27. Listach was out of the game at 29......

Joe Charboneau
Jerome Walton
Pat Listach


The game creates too many players that have great seasons early. Too many hitting 30 plus homers at age 22 or 23 when this is not common in real life.

That can be controlled somewhat via development modifiers.

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Dontrelle Willis--Overworked his arm. Pitcher. Somewhat good comp but I was talking about hitters.
Todd Hollandsworth--One fluke year and still played into his 30's.
Jason Jennings--Pitcher, threw over 200 inning at 27
Scott Williamson-Pitcher, still playing into his 30's
Angel Berroa--One fluke season, still played until 30
Ben Grieve--That's one hitter comp
Marty Cordova--25-yr-old rookie, played into his 30's
Bob Hamelin 26-yr-old rookie, never even got 400 ab in that season
Pat Listach--One fluke season. Never got 400 ab after rookie year.

One comp. Thing is, he's the exception that proves the rule. In the real world, players who establish themselves as stars before 24 stay stars unless something drastic happens (drugs, injury). Bill James established the truth twenty years ago and it hasn't been refuted. It's why Grieve is such a headscratcher. And he's probably pretty much alone in the last ten years at least. And in my game I had six playing on the same team.

Yeah, those guys that played into their 30's played a ton too. You told people to find examples, people did. It happens. If you don't like the game, don't play it. It's the closest thing to real life I can find.

[SandMan]

Originally Posted by RchW

That can be controlled somewhat via development modifiers.

I use RonCo recommendations of:

Batter Aging: 1.75
Batter Devel: .60
Pitcher Aging: 1.75
Pitcher Devel: .70

[RchW]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Dontrelle Willis--Overworked his arm. Pitcher. Somewhat good comp but I was talking about hitters.
Todd Hollandsworth--One fluke year and still played into his 30's.
Jason Jennings--Pitcher, threw over 200 inning at 27
Scott Williamson-Pitcher, still playing into his 30's
Angel Berroa--One fluke season, still played until 30
Ben Grieve--That's one hitter comp
Marty Cordova--25-yr-old rookie, played into his 30's
Bob Hamelin 26-yr-old rookie, never even got 400 ab in that season
Pat Listach--One fluke season. Never got 400 ab after rookie year.

One comp. Thing is, he's the exception that proves the rule. In the real world, players who establish themselves as stars before 24 stay stars unless something drastic happens (drugs, injury). Bill James established the truth twenty years ago and it hasn't been refuted. It's why Grieve is such a headscratcher. And he's probably pretty much alone in the last ten years at least. And in my game I had six playing on the same team.

Doesn't that suggest you have some league setup issues? I have 30-50 different leagues played since v2006 and have never seen that level of negative development. Not for one minute am I suggesting that player development is perfect, or even as good as it should be, but If I had similar issues, I'd look at the structure and the setup of the league I'm playing.

Why don't you post the league set up?

[ovccsteve]

Originally Posted by akw4572

Yeah, those guys that played into their 30's played a ton too. You told people to find examples, people did. It happens. If you don't like the game, don't play it. It's the closest thing to real life I can find.

Closest I can find, too. Doesn't mean there's not room for improvement. And I specifically said guys who didn't play into their thirties.

[ovccsteve]

Originally Posted by RchW

Doesn't that suggest you have some league setup issues? I have 30-50 different leagues played since v2006 and have never seen that level of negative development. Not for one minute am I suggesting that player development is perfect, or even as good as it should be, but If I had similar issues, I'd look at the structure and the setup of the league I'm playing.

Why don't you post the league set up?

Sounds like I might want to switch to yours or the RonCo approved settings. And thanks for trying to help with the problem instead of just attacking me for suggesting the problem was real.

[ovccsteve]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

Two points on this:

1. You have injuries turned off so the game makes player talent hits more or less completely random. If you want to turn that off entirely, you've been told how. The game apparently needs the entropy provided by injuries to regulate itself.

I always play with injuries on.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Sounds like I might want to switch to yours or the RonCo approved settings. And thanks for trying to help with the problem instead of just attacking me for suggesting the problem was real.

It's too bad that you can't easily check the average age of all players in your league. That will tell you where to go with the modifiers. Definitely reduce the development rate. That will reduce the 19-21 year-olds who tear up the league. I'd suggest you make the changes over 2-3 seasons in order to not be PO'd by the effect.

EDIT

Oops I almost forgot, check the settings under strategy, especially player creation. Once I had power set wrongly to 1.5 and wondered why tons of players had big power.

[bigMatt]

Originally Posted by ovccsteve

Sounds like I might want to switch to yours or the RonCo approved settings. And thanks for trying to help with the problem instead of just attacking me for suggesting the problem was real.

I appreciate that you had the courage and tenacity to persevere until you got a decent answer.

I've been having much the same problems myself, and was about ready to give up on OOTP entirely. I started a historic league in '54 with recalc turned off, and auto-played until '61 with the idea I'd get an expansion team and draft.

I was absolutely appalled by how terrible just about every player was in 1961. Mantle was hitting under .200 and riding the bench with a salary exceeding $1 mil. Mays, Robinson, Roger Maris, Kenny Boyer...heck, just about everyone of consequence in the actual year 1961 was swirling around the drain in my league. And I'm not exaggerating here.

After seeing these settings (and where does someone find these and other suggested settings anyway?) I can begin to fathom what the heck is going on. Now I'm tempted to restart my league again (I'm midway through '64) with these adjustments.