Right aging and random talent modifiers for modern day MLB League

[bailey]

I don't know if this is relevant (it's old), but injury setting appears to have an effect on this topic: (see post 11)

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...nt-broken.html

[SunDevil]

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...ater-week.html
Tweaked development of injury history rating, short-term injuries have less effect now

There is also this thread that got Markus to look at the issue and then make the change for this upcoming patch.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...gs-change.html

[phightin]

Just got done my 20 year sim and in 2022 here are the results of the top 105 hitters league wide. It basically proves what I and others have been saying all along.

Average age of top 105 hitters = 27.276 compared to 29.095 in 2012
Median = 27
Avg top 10 = 27.2
Avg top 20 = 27.1
Avg top 30 = 26.9666
avg top 40 = 26.925
avg top 50 = 27.12
avg top 60 = 26.833
avg top 70 27.1
avg top 80 = 27.2125

As you can see from the last data set I posted that's a 2-3 year age difference in the top of the league 10 years in the future compared to the standard after one 2012 season. The development system obviously has too many younger players and not enough older ones performing in their
prime. When I look at the data set the oldest peak age is only 31-32 and there are very few players at that which is obviously unrealistic.

I hope this data set helps and rests the case people have been making for years here.

My next step is to sim another 5-10 years ahead to see the dramatic drop off mirrored in less hof inductions.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by phightin

Just got done my 20 year sim and in 2022 here are the results of the top 105 hitters league wide. It basically proves what I and others have been saying all along.

Average age of top 105 hitters = 27.276 compared to 29.095 in 2012
Median = 27
Avg top 10 = 27.2
Avg top 20 = 27.1
Avg top 30 = 26.9666
avg top 40 = 26.925
avg top 50 = 27.12
avg top 60 = 26.833
avg top 70 27.1
avg top 80 = 27.2125

As you can see from the last data set I posted that's a 2-3 year age difference in the top of the league 10 years in the future compared to the standard after one 2012 season. The development system obviously has too many younger players and not enough older ones performing in their
prime. When I look at the data set the oldest peak age is only 31-32 and there are very few players at that which is obviously unrealistic.

I hope this data set helps and rests the case people have been making for years here.

My next step is to sim another 5-10 years ahead to see the dramatic drop off mirrored in less hof inductions.

What are your development and aging mods set at?

[phightin]

Originally Posted by RchW

What are your development and aging mods set at?

Everything is default in a standard modern day mlb setting. 1 for everything

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by bailey

I don't know if this is relevant (it's old), but injury setting appears to have an effect on this topic: (see post 11)

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...nt-broken.html

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

When injuries are off then OOTP 'simulates' injuries in the development with sudden drops in order to keep the system straight. Otherwise it would be messy since too few player would suffer talent drops and the average quality of all players in the league would rise over time, which is unrealistic...

The funny thing about this is that for a number of seasons the FOBL played under RonCo's old development settings, which slowed dev speed and increased aging speed, with default creation modifiers. Our fault for not understanding the settings, I guess. That lead to a player pool that was bland as paste. Just flow the crappy players through the turnstile. There seemed to be no mechanism to hold up the talent pool (the only saving grace was the existence of some older, better players already in the system).

A few seasons ago we changed our settings, .95 for aging speed and 1.1 for dev speed. Players got to the bigs a bit faster (not as many guys passing 25 still green) and some are hanging on into their late 30s. And creation modifiers were upped to 1.16-1.17 to actually make players who appeared to be worth drafting.

We have a bit of cycling through to do to see where the new settings will shake out, but as it stands now, contact is high in the 22-26 range, with both ratings and talent falling past that. The exception would be the few older players who make it to 36+, who are basically studs who held onto their ratings.

26 is the mode of hitters at the major league level (though this could be skewed, we're in ST right now). 25 is the mode for hitters in the entire universe.

theFOBL.com : Player Metrics

Not perfect, but that's what we get pulling out some of the numbers.

[Ben E Lou]

{pokes head up from testing the patch}

With injuries turned down to Very Low, I'm now very comfortable with using the default 1-1-1-1 settings. I'm really liking what I'm seeing here.

[SunDevil]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

{pokes head up from testing the patch}

With injuries turned down to Very Low, I'm now very comfortable with using the default 1-1-1-1 settings. I'm really liking what I'm seeing here.

And if the injury rating is set to the classic level what settings are you now comfortable with?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by SunDevil

And if the injury rating is set to the classic level what settings are you now comfortable with?

I can't answer that question. I'm not remotely ok with the cascading spiral of injury death and doom that a hangnail can cause in this game, so having injuries at Classic simply isn't an option for me. (I did run an overnight test at Classic last night that confirmed for me that it still isn't the setting for me.) As far as the dev settings at classic, they still seem fine at defaults. Veteran players don't seem to die as frequently as they used to early and out of the blue, but if a guy gets a minor injury, look out. That's so prevalent that the dev settings go to the back seat.

[SunDevil]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

...
but if a guy gets a minor injury, look out. That's so prevalent that the dev settings go to the back seat.

So are you saying that this item listed below in the patch notes is not really fixed based on your testing?

Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn

....

- Tweaked development of injury history rating, short-term injuries have less effect now
....

[Ben E Lou]

They may have "less" of an effect, but it's definitely still there. Lemme find a guy...

[Ben E Lou]

Heh. It's not easy on the "Very Low" setting, and I've already deleted the "Classic" overnight 130ish season test, though it may be in my Recycle Bin still...

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Heh. It's not easy on the "Very Low" setting, and I've already deleted the "Classic" overnight 130ish season test, though it may be in my Recycle Bin still...

Again, this "very low" setting is the center of the latest big discussion at FOBL (which I know you know, of course).

We moved from "low" to "very low" as under low it seemed like players were getting hurt frequently, and this led to more injury-related dev hits than many of us would like. Of course, reducing injuries to "very low" made injuries REALLY rare, which for many made roster management - or really the lack thereof - really, really boring (raising fatigue was given as one possible option for making backups more valuable, but that's an AI issue and doesn't really help with owner participation AND it introduces possible AI..."goofiness")

IMO, injury wear should manifest itself not in dev hits, but in an acceleration of the normal career decline. If the player pool is an interstate where most players get on at the same entrance/onramp and players get off at various exits (until all of them have exited, but have been replaced by new players), think of this as an HOV lane of sorts. A player might still get off at the same exit as before, he just speeds along in the HOV lane and gets there sooner than he ordinarily might have.

I'm thinking of a player like Chase Utley. As a Phillies fan, I think that intrinsically, Utley is still a damned good player. He hasn't lost all of his talent. The problem is that due to injury, he just can't make it on the field. Sure, he does occasionally, but not nearly as often. And when he does, he isn't always 100%, possibly far from it. So you see some drop in output (he's basically a long-term dtd). Nothing huge, but it's there. You also realize that hey, this guy may not last until 36, 37. He might make it to 34, 35. He may not tank (well, I'm hoping he doesn't), but his dev curve definitely accelerated.

[chriskelly]

so, I have a stupid question.......If I want to use injuries at LOW and slightly modify the aging settings so players age more slowly (stay good longer), do I use a number of 0.95, or 1.05.

I continue to use the home team injury setting of alt-ctrl-del

[SirMichaelJordan]

I did some googling and read that a MLB player's prime years are between 26-32 and 33 is when a guy starts to decline.

Average MLB player making his debut is 24

And the average retirement is about 36.

Hope that info is helpful when tweaking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[oman19]

Just so this information is out there. I had Questdog tell me last year that he had Markus tell him that large changes in the aging/dev modifiers have small effects. So it would take a pretty decent size adjustment to see a noticable difference.


I think I remember him using 0.6 aging 1.4 dev. I found when I used it players were lasting to long for my tastes but I did like the development.

This was for v12.

[joefromchicago]

Originally Posted by phightin

As most of you know in the OTTP world players will usually flame out, going from good or great players to relative worthless minor leaguers rather quickly when players reach their late 20s.

That has never been my experience.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by joefromchicago

That has never been my experience.

Nor mine

I took phightin's cue and did a similar top hitters analysis. I used OPS+. This is MLB 2011 versus OOTP fictional with 48 years of history.

Average age of top 105 hitters = 28.65 29.69

Avg top 10 = 29.80 28.30
Avg top 20 = 28.60 28.55
Avg top 30 = 28.67 28.90
avg top 40 = 28.63 29.30
avg top 50 = 28.94 29.48
avg top 60 = 28.70 29.40
avg top 70 = 28.43 29.63
avg top 80 =28.33 29.60

With all due respect I don't find the above data compelling at all. I don't think this says anything about how close my league is to having the right age distribution . It falsely suggests that my league is just fine and we know from the graph below that it's not close compared to real life age distribution. I could strip out most of the excess 30+ baggage seen in my league and the average age of the top hitters would not change.

I agree that phightins data given previously shows that there are not enough 30+ players in the top hitters. It doesn't explain why. An age distribution chart will tell you if it is too quick a development ie if there is a large population of good young players reaching an early peak, they will crowd out the 30+ players who will retire. Early peak players tend to drop off precipitously. This would make the problem self replicating. An age distribution chart would help identify a combination of aging and development adjustments to regain balance, while clearly reflecting the MLB trend to younger players.

[phightin]

I don't know why as well, but that's the million dollar question i think we're all asking. I'm not sure if it's correct or not but I think it's a matter of the development system not having enough outliers that are still able to hit in their mid 30s. Yes most hitters will start to fall off after the age of 32 and the game does a good job at trending to that, but there aren't enough exceptions say 10-15% that will maintain solid productivity later in their career. Instead it's more of an all or nothing scenario.

As far as my previous statement maybe it was a bit too harsh, but what I meant by it was that OOTP doesn't do the greatest job of gradually declining a player's production. IRL a large part of the time with hitters a great players will go from great to good, to average, to bad gradually as they age. It may happen year to year but it doesnt necessarily occur overnight the majority of the time. In OOTP once a player starts declining you can almost usually be sure he is done for soon after. Pitchers however I agree can flame out instantly without warning, hitters usually age with some grace.

[SunDevil]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I can't answer that question. I'm not remotely ok with the cascading spiral of injury death and doom that a hangnail can cause in this game, so having injuries at Classic simply isn't an option for me. (I did run an overnight test at Classic last night that confirmed for me that it still isn't the setting for me.) As far as the dev settings at classic, they still seem fine at defaults. Veteran players don't seem to die as frequently as they used to early and out of the blue, but if a guy gets a minor injury, look out. That's so prevalent that the dev settings go to the back seat.

I still think that what Skydog talks about plays a role in the longevity of the older players.