OVR & POT ratings still don't make sense

[ThePretender]

Originally Posted by Rosco Peabody

Juan Gonzalez won the MVP award in 1998 a -2 Rtot and 1996 with a -11 Rtot

Because writers are dumb and didn't realize he wasn't that valuable. He had a good season, not deserving of MVP though.

Edwin Encarnacion is an AWFUL fielder and has finished just outside the top ten in MVP twice and been an all-star three times

As a DH and part time 1B. Not as a lousy defensive 3B. The bat didn't develop until he stopped playing 3B.

Jason Giambi was considered one of the better hitters of his day, won an MVP award, and played AWFUL defense

He basically had to hit like peak Barry Bonds to do that, though. Otherwise he's an above average 1B.

Mike Piazza has the 7th best Catching WAR of all time despite having the second worst dWAR of all time

He lost a lot of runs defensively because of his arm, but he was actually really good at everything else defensively. See here for more proof. He's better than he gets credit for.

In other words, fielding shouldn't be worth nearly as much as hitting. Maybe a 5 point swing or so, but that's it.

You're also confusing true talent level with career years. A poor defensive player can have a good season or career if they hit enough, but poor defense will limit their upside.

Doesn't mean a player who is below average is worthless, can't win an MVP, or can't be one of the better players in the league. But I think you're undervaluing it to prove a point.

Nope sorry, I reloaded it and he went up to a 71 as a third baseman simply because of changing his turn double play stat.

So that actually makes my case better, in fact.

This guy is rated a 53 instead of a 71 just because he has trouble with the double play

In this case, as I said before, the game doesn't treat him as a capable defender at 3B. You disagree about the avoid DP limitation, and that's fine, but the AI/evaluation says he's a great bat who can't play 3B, and is thus compared to other 1B where his bat isn't that special.

If he can play 3B, then he's absolutely a 70 pot guy. Which makes sense, because it's an average to above average bat at 1B, so at 3B he'd be a star given he can play D.

It's working as intended, and actually this example shows why that's important. What we can argue, and I'll agree with, is low avoid DP shouldn't eliminate a player from being a 3B. But from the game's perspective, he's rated so low because it doesn't believe he can play 3B. So the difference in pot makes a lot of sense.

[chriskelly]

James Harden is about to win an MVP, and he doesn't play any D at all

[Rosco Peabody]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

It sounds to me like your biggest problem is that you pay too much attention to overall and potential ratings.

It's not necessarily that it's me. I understand the finer points about it. But that player is on a AI team and I have seen the AI base who starts on their team solely off of OVR rating and bench a good player who has a lower OVR rating than another guy who isn't necessarily better than him because of something dumb like that "turn double play" stat

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Rosco Peabody

It's not necessarily that it's me. I understand the finer points about it. But that player is on a AI team and I have seen the AI base who starts on their team solely off of OVR rating and bench a good player who has a lower OVR rating than another guy who isn't necessarily better than him because of something dumb like that "turn double play" stat

I haven't seen that, but I'll take your word for it. Based on how the guy in question is rated, he's a good first baseman. As Pretender points out, his bat is not elite for first base. Once the game rates him as a third baseman, his overall jumps because those offensive ratings are elite at third base.

I think you're overvaluing his offense a bit. I assume those ratings are on the 1-100 scale. His only skills that are approaching elite are gap power and home run power. His eye/discipline is average, his contact is maybe a tick above average and his avoid K's is only slightly above average. That's a good player, but not a perennial MVP front-runner.

[OutS|der]

Originally Posted by Rosco Peabody

It's not necessarily that it's me. I understand the finer points about it. But that player is on a AI team and I have seen the AI base who starts on their team solely off of OVR rating and bench a good player who has a lower OVR rating than another guy who isn't necessarily better than him because of something dumb like that "turn double play" stat

Having the AI start the guy at 3B when he's not is DUMB as well.
This is not real life, there is a minimum rating needed to play 3B. That player doesn't have it hence he's rated lower then other 3B's.
It's a limitation of the game, deal with it.

[garion333]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

It's a limitation of the game, deal with it.

While I wouldn't put it quite that harsh, it does appear the cause of this is simply a code generated threshold issue. Meaning, maybe the code can be updated to be a bit more nuanced, but chances are this DP situation is just an ugly threshold thing and the player is <30 on DP, so he goes -10 in Overall.

The AI is just code and if it's using Overall when setting depth then it's never going to be perfect.

This is the point when multiplayer people step in and say things like "you've gotten too good at the game, time to step up and play with the big boys in mp". And it's true. MP players would start that guy where the AI might not.

And thus, half your issue goes away! The game code will never be perfect, but maybe the calculation here could be a little less stark solely based on the DP rating. Making such a huge fuss out of it is a bit churlish though.

[mmarra82]

Solution, turn off overall and potential rating values if you do not care for them. Focus on the ratings that matter to you.

[Dyzalot]

I never understood why an infielder's ability to "turn a double play", which I have always understood to mean "receiving a throw at 2nd and making the turn and throw to complete the double play", has any bearing at all on one's ability to play anything other than 2nd base or shortstop.

[Qeltar]

Originally Posted by Dyzalot

I never understood why an infielder's ability to "turn a double play", which I have always understood to mean "receiving a throw at 2nd and making the turn and throw to complete the double play", has any bearing at all on one's ability to play anything other than 2nd base or shortstop.

OOTP uses the more general definition of "turning" as evidenced by the fact that the manual specifically mentions that this affects pitchers and catchers as well.

What you are talking about is more specifically called "pivoting."

Obviously that is key for 2B/SS and all DP turning is more important at those positions. But 1Bs have some of the most difficult DPs in baseball.

[NoOne]

3rd base only needs a 25-50 / 200 turn dp or thereabouts.

and, it's not make or break if it's lower and you use that guy as a 3rd baseman. assuming he is decent infield range, a strong infield arm and decent infield errors rating. i wouldn't say that about any other position... if it doesn't show up on profile, that's a bad sign, typically.

dryz, yeah it's the guy in the middle, so to speak, and a large majority of the time it does involve second base with the 2b or ss, but not always. enough that only 2b/ss are severely impacted by turn dp rating.

if it is affecting 3b def ratings, i'd compare to other similar rated 3b, minus turn dp. expect similar fielding performance overall.

[Dyzalot]

Originally Posted by Qeltar

OOTP uses the more general definition of "turning" as evidenced by the fact that the manual specifically mentions that this affects pitchers and catchers as well.

What you are talking about is more specifically called "pivoting."

Obviously that is key for 2B/SS and all DP turning is more important at those positions. But 1Bs have some of the most difficult DPs in baseball.

That doesn't make sense to me either. Actually being able to make that turn at 2nd is a unique skill that not all infielders do well. Starting a double play is just being able to field a ball cleanly and make an accurate throw to 2nd, skills that would seem to already be encapsulated within the range, error and throwing ratings.

[Qeltar]

Pivoting can also be boiled down to range, catching and throwing without errors. So taking that approach, they could have omitted the "turn DP" rating entirely if they wanted to.

I mean, how much more difficult is it for a 2B to run to second base to catch a ball and quickly throw it to first than for a 2B to range to his right to field a batted ball and quickly throw it to first? I'd argue that they are comparable at best, and catching a ball tossed by a teammate is easier than one hit on the ground.

But it makes sense to have it as a separate skill, and it also makes sense to have it for all infielders, not just middle infielders. IMO you underestimate the importance of efficiently starting a DP in being able to pull the DP off. And 6-4-3s and 4-6-3s are usually among the least difficult DPs compared to the rarer ones that involve other infielders -- 3Bs have a longer throw and often off-balance after a difficult field, and 1Bs have to be involved in the DP twice. DPs started by pitchers are rare for a reason. Catchers even more rare, but there it's because of how plays start, so I am not sure how much it should matter for that position.

I'd weight "turn DP" heavier for 2B and SS but it definitely has applicability for 3B and 1B, to a lesser extent P, and to an even lesser extent C.

[stealofhome]

According to this awesome work by Huckleberry (and biggerme): http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...56#post4189856

there is a factor of 9 for 2B, 8 for SS, and 3.25 for 3B. 1B has a different calculation but the TDP rating is in there (not sure off the top of my head how that compares to the ratios for the other positions). C is not impacted by TDP rating.

For a 3B, you could say TDP impacts their awareness to see a double play is possible (maybe the runner is close to the bag but their arm is strong and accurate enough to get them). There are also DP at 3B/Home, there's a skill to leading the 2B/SS to the bag to start it, they could have to charge the ball and barehand it, etc. There are a bunch of skills that could impact DP besides the pivot part, which is why the 2B/SS are higher weighted but the 3B is still involved.

For 2B/SS, the footwork on the pivot play, catching a ball while the runner is right on you, touching the bag and throwing all in one motion, etc. is a definite skill that's different than fielding a ball and throwing it.

For a 1B, you could say that they have to start some DP as well although much less common.

[Qeltar]

Cool link, thanks. Doesn't that also show the same 3.25 for pitchers?

"For 2B/SS, the footwork on the pivot play, catching a ball while the runner is right on you, touching the bag and throwing all in one motion, etc. is a definite skill that's different than fielding a ball and throwing it."

To be clear, I do agree with this, and having a seperate rating. I just think that many middle infield DPs aren't as difficult as the ones that make the highlight reels. They also have changed the rules to remove some of the egregious takeout slides of the past.

One of the main issues is that everything has to happen much faster -- but that also applies to other infielders who start DPs. And 1Bs probably are much more likely to have to stretch, reach for or scoop a throw that is rushed than one that is not.

(As an aside, I was surprised at how much the height of the 1B affects the rating as shown in that link. I'd expect some effect but not 6'6" gives double the defensive rating of 5'6".)