"The System" (Part II): The Pitching Revolution

[Prodigal Son]

Originally Posted by Sowega

Wow, this without a doubt one of the best threads I’ve read here.

Are you seeing large discrepancies in Era V FIP for your staff? Wondering if the unique usage affects the differential more or less than normal life. May be too early to tell early in season but as season goes on would be interested to follow.


What are your current offense and pitching league ranks? And do you emphasize good defense infield with the pitching emphasis on ground ball specialists?


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Good questions. Let me cover them in order.

1. I think it might be too early to draw conclusions regarding any ERA / FIP variation. Another issue is that I can't locate team FIP anywhere in-game. From a quick survey of individual stats, it looks like a disproportionate number of pitchers have inflated ERA's relative to FIP's. I'll just take that to mean we are unlucky. We'll check back in later in the season...

2. I just checked team statistics and ... wow! Big surprises. The team is ranked 1st in the NL in six offensive categories, including runs scored. Third in hits, BB, and SB (thanks to Inciarte, who has 21. Bellinger has 10, nobody else has more than 4). Fifth in hits and then ... 14th in strikeouts. Overall these are fantastic numbers. This makes sense, as the draft strategy--supported by The System--was to draft offense and ignore some of the big arms.

On the pitching side, the team is 9th in ERA and ranks last in four categories. Interesting, we are 3rd in HRA, 2nd in BB, and 10th in K's. Dead last in BABIP at .338(!) and defensive efficiency (.651 -- I don't know what that means). Apparently we need help defensively, or else this is some strange result of pitching so many innings with replacement-level talent? No wonder so many pitchers have ERA's higher than FIP's!

Overall, I wouldn't think the team was sitting in a position to make the playoffs with these pitching numbers. But one thing to keep in mind -- we tend to give up a lot of runs, even in wins. Especially in wins. As long as it's a low leverage situation, giving up runs is fine. It's by design. Those are innings being pitched by replacement-level players so as not to waste the good arms.

So this all makes some sense. Except the BABIP and defensive efficiency. Inciarte is a very good defensive CF, and we've been playing Marrero at SS a lot more lately, where he has a 70 def rating and is at 250 defensive innings, or roughly half the season, with a ZR of +3.3 and EFF of 1.134. We've limited Starlin Castro to 36 IP at SS, and he hasn't even been that bad.

Statistically, the outfield has been bad, even though none of them are poorly-rated there (50+), and Castro has been bad at 2B even though he's rated at 50. Not sure what gives.

Anyway, to fully answer the question: yes, I would love to focus on good defense up the middle, and that is a priority in draft and free agency. Andrelton Simmons is on the trade block, but he's in the last year of his contract. I might make an offer with some prospects. He's pretty much exactly what this team needs, and he might be affordable going forward once Castro ($16 mil) and McCarthy ($9 mil) come off the payroll after this season.

[Prodigal Son]

The Braves rolled through most of May, compiling a record of 14-5 from May 1 - 21, but then the wheels came off, with the team inexplicably going on a 2-9 stretch from May 22 until the amateur draft on June 4.

With exactly 60 games completed, this is a great opportunity to take inventory of the roster and plan strategically for the future. Let's look at the season to-date:

The Good

- We're currently 2nd in the Wild Card race and would be looking at the playoffs if the season ended today.

- We are leading the league in several major offensive categories and have a well-balanced offense with a lot of power, some speed, and different types and handednesses of hitters. This isn't an easy lineup for anyone to face.

- We've suffered no season-ending injuries. Several guys have missed time or had day-to-day injuries, but so far we've avoided the big blow.

- Cody Bellinger. He's cooled off a bit from an insane start, but he has an OPS of 1.075 with 26 home runs through 60 games. This guy was worth the team's #2 pick for sure, and is outplaying #1 pick Aaron Judge and his pedestrian .795 OPS and 12 HR.

- There are some large dead weight contracts in the organization, but Starlin Castro ($16 mil), Brandon McCarthy ($9 mil), and Brad Ziegler ($8 mil) all are in their final years and are still playing respectably. Jed Lowrie ($10.5 mil) is fading fast, but he's signed just through next season. Kris Davis, Ken Giles, and some others are arbitration-eligible, but they're already have substantial arbitration-awarded salaries this year, so there shouldn't be massive jumps / surprises. We can go fishing a little bit at the trade deadline, winter meetings, and/or free agency.

- I've been happy with the development of some prospects. The team's top prospect, Jonathan India, is still a ways off from solving our 3B needs, but outfielder Juan Soto is coming along great (55/50/50 current ratings at 19 years old). We have a crowded outfield, so he's blocked, but we might have to make room soon.

- Trade pieces. We have some overcrowded outfield talent to trade away to make room for Soto and have some valuable third basemen under team control. We can potentially use these pieces to bring in an upgrade at SS, 2B, or C. Several teams are interested in Maikel Franco, whose profile I have attached. He's a solid player (2.5 stars) under team control forever, and at worst he shapes up to make a platoon vsLHP contributor, so the risk is low with him. I have to decide whether he is our 3B of the near future, or whether he's trade bait. Tough call. I have my doubts whether India (also attached) will ever materialize. He's 21.5 years old and languishing in A-ball.

The Bad

- The pitching has been exactly bad. Not terrible, not average, but bad. At least it has been cheap.

- The offense has been plagued with strikeouts. While strikeouts in and of themselves aren't the end of the world, it would be nice to have one or two more good contact hitters. The team could use a true leadoff hitter (Inciarte is doing ok, but he's not ideal) along with one more contact/gap bat toward the bottom of the lineup.

- The catcher spot is lacking. Evan Gattis has an OPS of .693 (OBP of .297) and is mediocre with the glove. We'll have to see if he can post respectable numbers, or else this will be a big need position heading into the trade deadline or next season.

- Middle infield glut. Starlin Castro, Jed Lowrie, Ian Happ, Deven Marrero. What is going to come of this? Castro is hitting well, but he's an expensive bat with a fair (at best) glove. Lowrie is fading. Happ is a prospect with big power but is looking at being sent down with his .196 avg despite jacking 13 bombs in 209 AB. Marrero is an all glove, no bat flyswatter with a 40 contact rating, according to our scouts. He's getting the majority of the work now, by default. We might have to make a run at Andrelton Simmons, who is on the block, with the risk that he ends up being a rental.

The Ugly

- The defense is atrocious. Slick-fielding Marrero at SS and Inciarte at CF have not remedied the issue. It's puzzling, as all players have the tools to field their positions. Ratings for the highest inning fielders from 2-9 positions go: 40 (C), 65, 50, 40 (3B), 70 (SS), 50, 65 (CF), 65. Not top of the league, but performing so terribly seems inexplicable.

- The top bullpen arms are demonstrably below expectations. All-world, five-star closer Ken Giles not only has an ERA of 4.23, he has surrendered 10 BB and 6 HR in 27.2 IP for a FIP of 4.89! HL pitcher Michael Feliz has tossed 28 IP of 7.07 ERA ball with 20 walks! When these guys don't pitch well, The System suffers major internal injuries. Hopefully they get back on track.

[Prodigal Son]

I'm not enamored with the draft. The Braves had the 7th overall pick in a draft that had 4-5 Tier 1 players, then a huge drop-off. Yay. It also had no compensation picks at the end of the first round and had to wait seemingly forever to pick in the second round.

First round pick was spent on Pete D'Ambrosi, a local GA Tech buy who was interested in staying in Georgia. The scouts love him more than I do. As a RHB with limited contact ability, I believe he projects into maybe the 6th slot at best against RHP, which makes him difficult to slot anywhere higher in the lineup even against starting LHP in this day of heavy bullpen use. As a defender at CF, he's good, but not spectacular. He has plus power and eye, but he's already 22 years old and needs to make big strides. He's a (very) poor man's Andruw Jones.

Second round pick was a solid one in pitcher Juan Soto, incidentally D'Ambrosi's college teammate. With only two pitches and limited stamina, he projects as a reliever, making him a reach in the second round. But he's a good fit in the system. There were more overpowering arms available, but Soto's control and movement are well-developed for his age, and as an extreme groundball pitcher, he has a higher floor as a potential GB specialist if he doesn't fully live up to his potential. I really like this pick, but there is no guarantee he agrees to sign instead of re-enter after another year of college.

Nobody else really projects to make an impact, and overall the draft was disappointing. We nabbed some "tools" players, potential 4th OF's, some decent arms that might come around later. All is not lost. Let's see if we can get them all signed.

[Prodigal Son]

The Braves kicked of MLB trading season by bringing a favorite back home. On Monday evening, the Braves and Astros finalized a deal to send Andrelton "Simba" Simmons to Atlanta in exchange for starting pitching prospect Cole Wilcox.

Simmons is playing out the final year of a $9 million per year contract. The Houston front office openly shopped the three-time Gold Glove award-winner, who played in Atlanta from 2012-2015, seeking any return for their slick-fielding asset prior to the off-season free agency period.

Ultimately, the Astros found what they were looking for in Wilcox, the #4 starting pitching prospect in the Braves organization and #9 overall team prospect. The 18 year-old has burst onto the scene in 2018, as he is playing well above his expected age level in high-A ball. Scouts have noticed his ability to throw four pitches, each with plus potential.

"There was another pitcher who threw the same four pitches, who made a lot of progress from age 18 to 21. About the same build, about the same height. And that's Max Scherzer," said one AL scout. "Like Scherzer back in high school, Wilcox wasn't a guy who nabbed a high draft slot, but he keeps playing beyond his level and developing. His slider is top-tier. Good fastball, curve, the kitchen sink. I think he's a high-floor guy who could be a #3, could be an ace, who knows? If he were in the draft this year, he'd be a second-round pick. He's an intriguing prospect."

The Braves' defense has struggled all season, placing the team at or near the bottom in several defensive statistical categories. The team's roster of infielders consists of a revolving door of questionable fielders, led by Starlin Castro. Despite posting an OPS of .836, Castro has struggled defensively at SS, 2B and 3B, raising questions about his ability to contribute to an NL team on a consistent basis.

Prospect Ian Happ has similarly struggled with the glove, and despite showing power, has slogged his way to a batting average below the Mendoza line. Deven Marrero has found his way into the de facto everyday role at SS, but he is exactly a poor man's version of Simmons. While Marrero is a very good fielder, Simmons is otherworldly with the leather. Simba also wields a respectable bat, whereas Marrero is a throwback slap-hitter relegated to the #8 lineup slot. Like Marrero, Simmons may lack power, but his microscopic strikeout rate and average plate patience keep him from being a liability at the plate. In short, Simmons is a known commodity and an upgrade across the board for the denizens of SunTrust Park.

"We're excited to have him back, have him on board," Braves manager Brian Snitker said. "We have people in the organization who are still very familiar with him from before, and they couldn't be more excited. Our pitchers needed some help, let's be honest. And they're getting it."

When asked if Simmons will be more than a half-year rental, Snitker was optimistic, if not elusive.

"I'd like to think [he'll sign an extension]. He fits perfectly with what we're trying to do here. We've got a place for him on the field, and that's my concern. I'll leave it up to Antho [Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos] to see if they can work something out."

[Prodigal Son]

With the Ammy draft and Simmons acquisition coming on the heels of a season-worst team slump, I've taken the opportunity to re-examine the lineup and make some moves.

- Ian Happ was optioned to AAA. He remains a good and versatile prospect, but he wasn't contributing.

- Maikel Franco (profile posted in an above post -- has drawn interest on the trade block) will have an opportunity to play more regularly. With several other teams interested in him, and with him playing well, I have to take a closer look (playing with 20-80 scale and scouts enabled, he may be better than I'm thinking). He'll get a chance to show it.

- Starlin Castro and Jed Lowrie will be on the outside looking in. We need some better defense, and we'll find ways to work them into the lineup. Castro's bat has been valuable, but it needs to be worked in where his defensive innings can be minimized.

- Deven Marrero will get more of a look at 2B in the absence of Happ and the pseudo-benching of Castro and Lowrie. He's a great defender and has been hitting respectably. With Simba anchoring SS, this is basically an open audition at 2B among the three remaining guys with occasional opportunities at 3B. Of course, Castro's bat will keep him relevant, so Marrero and Lowrie are in a battle.

- Shaking up of the lineup. While sample sizes remain small, some results have been notable. Enciarte is really struggling vs LHP, so he's getting replaced by Simmons at the top of the lineup in those games. A few other changes have been made based upon splits year-to-date. In keeping with Franco getting a bigger opportunity, he's batting 5th vs LHP now.

(vs LHP screenshot attached)

[Prodigal Son]

Enough transactional junk -- time to get back to playing games and talking about The System.

[Prodigal Son]

At our last season update on June 4th, the Braves were 33-27 (.550). It's now June 30th. The Braves are 46-35 (.568). So we've gone 13-8 since the last update. Nice work by us!

The strategic elements of The System are taking root. This isn't just about pitching strategy, it's about the roster freedom created by refusing to be a slave to conventional thinking on starting pitching. When you're not dumping $40 million+ on 2-3 starters, that frees up a lot of other options. Like trading a good SP prospect for Andrelton Simmons (who is asking for the world to re-sign, so he's looking like a rental). The point is that you always have the ammo to field a competitive team if you are willing to let good SP prospects walk...

The System, of course, frees up options to carry more relievers and to focus resources on position players. Along the lines of roster management, it clearly turns every SP prospect into a valuable trade piece. It changes draft strategy into finding versatile position players, high-end relievers, and maybe, just maybe, an occasional SP prospect who can eat innings under team control. Every SP draftee who was "necessary" to the team now becomes optional. The Braves now draft SP's only for value. No stretching, no necessity. Value picks with high ceilings, for trade bait.

We have some contract albatrosses. The fantasy draft option in OOTP isn't very fair about this. Jed Lowrie is a replacement-level player making nearly $10 mil per year. Brandon McCarthy, Pat Neshek, a few others are being paid similar amounts for minimal production.

This is going to have to play out over time. I've set trading difficulty to very hard and am policing my moves for realism, but I think we're on the right side of the curve here. I'm willing to trade starting pitching stud prospects and position players for bullpen arms and role-players.

We're just hitting our stride. I'm still learning strategy, which will be an in-depth post at some point in the future, in preview of the book I am slowly drafting. This is getting interesting as I'm working out the kinks. I've now played out over 80 games at-bat by at-bat and am learning the intricacies of this beast.

The short version: This works. The long version: It works best if you go all-in. More to come.

[Prodigal Son]

On June 30th, the Braves traded away good prospect Miguel Andujar, decent SS prospect Roberto Baldoquin, and mediocre catching prospect Rainis Silva for reliever Brad Hand from the White Sox.

This one hurt a little, but Hand is a perfect fit as a lefty with a respectable contract. Andujar is rated as the fourth-best prospect for the White Sox (I forgot to check where he was ranked in our organization before the trade). He's hitting .393/.432/.697 (1.129 OPS) at AAA Gwinnett with 11 HR in 199 AB's. In 23 MLB plate appearances this season, he has hit .248/.348/.429 for an OPS+ of 110. He's ready for the bigs.

As a value trade, this one wasn't great for us. Andujar isn't even arbitration eligible yet, and Hand is making $3 million this year and estimated $5 million next year in his final arbitration year. The White Sox did retain all but $600k of his remaining 2018 salary. So maybe I was taken to the cleaners, but with trading difficulty set to very hard there wasn't much else I could get. I wish there were a setting between hard and very hard.

The good news is that I think we're mostly done with having a fully-equipped system bullpen. We could use another good long arm (we have Ohtani, then it drops to Neshek and McCarthy, two guys no team will even claim off of waivers). But we'll see if we can bring one up in the system or hit up FA for one.

[Prodigal Son]

Whether it's the Simmons acquisition, better luck, better strategy, or who knows, but the team has been pitching much better lately. Our ERA is now at 3.59, fourth in the league. But get this: we're dead last in hits allowed, opposing average, and BABIP. Third in HRA, 4th in BB, and 7th in K's.

It seems that The System is functioning as intended.

[Prodigal Son]

An 11-2 record in July so far gives us the best record in baseball! I figured I had better grab a screenshot in case we go on a losing streak.

[Prodigal Son]

It's July, and it seems like a news notification pops up every day regarding a trade. It's season one after a fantasy draft, so of course it makes sense that there will be a lot of movement as teams with different focuses either trade away salary or add pieces for a playoff run.

As previously mentioned, the Braves traded away a good SP prospect for Andrelton Simmons. Simmons wants $19.9 million per year for 9(!) years for an extension, so this looks like a half-season rental. Oh well.

Other trades:

- Braves traded Jed Lowrie and 3.5 star pitching prospect Alex Faedo (#53 overall prospect in baseball) for average reliever Kelvin Herrera in a clear salary dump for the Braves. The Braves agreed to pay 25% of Lowrie's salary owed for the rest of 2018 and 2019. His base salary is $10.5 million. So basically the rebuilding Rangers purchased a good pitching prospect for about $10 million.

- Braves traded 2.5-star 3B prospect Miguel Andujar along with two other decent prospects to the White Sox for RP Brad Hand. Hand is in his arbitration years, with only one more year of team control, but he's a good, steady (3.5 star) lefty reliever. Andujar drew a good bit of interest on the trade market, but ultimately Hand seemed like the best fit for The System.

- Braves traded C Evan Gattis (2.5 stars), two solid (2 star) prospects and RP Josh Lueke (3 stars) for C J.T. Realmuto (3 stars). Unfortunately for us, this isn't the real-life 2018 Marlins version of Realmuto. In fact, he's equal to or only a shade better than Gattis, and his salary is higher ($7.2 million vs. $6.2 million), but this is just my idiosyncracy. I like good-fielding catchers. J.T. is at 55 ability / 65 arm, while Gattis is at 40/50. In addition, we were having a huge problem with strikeouts, so I wanted more of a contact hitter and was willing to give up some of Gattis' power. I think Realmuto is a much better fit, so I'm not stressing the price tag.

- Braves traded Darren O'Day (4 stars) to the Dodgers for Yonny Chirinos (2.5 stars) and $750,000. I really liked O'Day, but this was a salary dump to free up some flexibility for extensions and FA. O'Day makes $7.5 million and posted a 1.60 ERA for the Braves in 33.2 IP. Chirinos is just another arm for low-leverage situations, so whatever. We have enough HL arms to let O'Day go.

There are some interesting names on the trading block, including Trout, Harper, and Strasburg, but this is likely the end of our activity for the year. Nothing really earth-shattering, but we got some dust settled on some salary issues and used some prospects to strengthen a couple positions. We don't really need those pitching prospects anyway, right?