Why Max Scherzer so bad this year

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by vpapa524

I started in 2014 and moved the Yankees forward from then. Acquired him via free agency. I love the game. Don't get me wrong. Was just curious why in this case his performance seemed to be way off. No big deal. Was just wondering if others had similar experience

I don't play much historical OOTP these days, but I know that you can find quite a bit of good information around these parts about what sorts of settings to use to get the most historically accurate results in a sim.
I'm guessing that what you are seeing could possibly be because of the settings that you are using (and don't get me wrong, they could well be default settings, and I'm not saying any of this is your fault) and with the OOTP development engine taking over and depending upon things like Talent Change Randomness, as you move forward in time, from wherever it is that you start, a player's history could change significantly from what it was IRL.

But again, there are ways to mitigate this sort of thing if what you prefer is that the sim you are running sticks more closely to actual real-life performances up to the time that we can know what those are, and there are plenty of fine folks here who can offer guidance and wisdom about how to set things up so as to not have as much potential for unexpected drop-offs (or upticks) in individual player performances that don't mirror their real-life stats as closely.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by slugga27

Players have down years all the time…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm pretty sure this lands in the same conversation as Liam Hendrix winning reliever of the year as he struck out like 106 batter and walked only 7, but this year he's getting his butt handed to him. But in the game I'm playing with him he has and ERA around 7 after 4 games but he's been on DL for last 2 months ....I don't know if he's ever been on DL in his career..never checked, but I suck it up as being a simulation..and best ever (injury set to LOW) Taking OOTP as the be all exact simulation is not wise. I wouldn't play a game that gave me exact stats or near exact stats year after year...Why play if you already know outcome. Randomness is OK



Bunktownballers

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by locuspc

He had a 2.98 ERA for me in 2022, not one of the top pitchers but well above average. I think that's fair, players are expected to decline as they get older and he's still going relatively strong. It seems like you got the bad end of some random variance.

There are differing philosophies of simulation. Some people would argue that the simulation should try to keep as close to the median outcome as possible, and not add variance that could keep the results away from the most likely result. Others would say that part of what's being simulated is the impacts of variance, and if you don't include realistic variance, the probabilities of everything will be all wrong. If you sim 1000 times, there should be sims where Scherzer has a bad year. You can't say the probability he has a bad year is 0. He's getting older.

When a player ages..he has to have variance or they'd just play forever and ever

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by cubsin5ive

Lukas, I think that is a good call. Max has regressed substantially in June of my 2022 campaign in PT23. Of course, it's quite possible that a similar regression will happen in his IRL season—and if not in 2022, then '23 or '24. But there is obviously a reason that Steve Cohen felt comfortable paying Max $42m AAV, and it's not just because he has hedge fund blood money and a huge crush. Some players are built to last.

LIke Steve Cohen has never been wrong....or the Mets...Do you know they still playing Bobby Bonilla $1 million a year untill like 2035..I kmow it wasn't Cohen that did that..And I simmed my White Sox this year and they finished 81-81 after winning division lst year with 93 wins..IRL it looks like they heading to below or .500 campaign..

[vpapa524]

Originally Posted by ayaghmour2

Well there's your answer. If you started in 2014, and now it is 2016, that is two full seasons of OOTP randomness. His performance could be accounted for aging, a talent drop, injury, etc. Plus it could just be bad luck. Regardless, unless you have auto calculate turned on, there will be a lot of variation in your sim results and real life. You can't expect a Max Scherzer created in 2014 with two years of gameplay to mimic the real life 2016 Scherzer.

Makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the insight.

[vpapa524]

Originally Posted by Bunktown Ballers

When a player ages..he has to have variance or they'd just play forever and ever

On that same topic, I have done quite a few simulations and it seems like players like Sandy Koufax, Roberto Clemente and Ted Williams all have played well past what they actually played. The first two players careers ended early for of course different reasons but the scouting and rating system for them are at 5 stars well into their 40s even higher. ( Clemente was in his 80's in one simulation) I can't figure out Ted Williams rating staying high well into his 40s and 50s. It is kind of funny but usefull if you want to have fun and acquire these guys via free agency and use them on your team.

[mrpoopistan]

Which patch are you running?

You may be experiencing the problem due to the janky code running in the .45 version.

I unintentionally reverted back to it by turning off the public beta per the instructions for Steam users, and the .45 version obliterated a year worth of player development in one month. (Fun experience, BTW.)

The difference in performance between the .45 patch and the .5whatever it is patch was insane. Difference between my rebuilding Pirates team being a .200 or .500 squad.

[Clavette]

Scherzer looking quite good this year