Ratings for Negro League players - Page 2

David Watts · 04-30-2022, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kq76

Please keep it above board, people. I moved and hid the nationalistic talk.

Sorry about that. Was just trying to lighten the mood a little.

BirdWatcher · 04-30-2022, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Watts

Sorry about that. Was just trying to lighten the mood a little.

Yep, same here.
But maybe only we think we are being funny.

Hoiles · 04-30-2022, 12:47 PM

Thanks for getting it back on point.

It's clear data quality is an issue. For example, in my test sim, Owen Smaulding is the dominant pitcher of his era. He has a nice Wikipedia article, but also a real-life 5.42 ERA according to his profile. Regardless, the relatively low imported HR and BB (and relatively respectable 3.68 FIP) credited him to have 80 movement/75 control ratings at his peak. In particular, the HR rate was probably unrealistically low. With the "three true outcomes" model, it might be more realistic to extrapolate the HR from the ERA than assume that all home runs were counted in his stats.

David Watts · 04-30-2022, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

Yep, same here.
But maybe only we think we are being funny.

You been hanging around my wife?

LansdowneSt · 04-30-2022, 03:25 PM

Looking at Owen Smaulding...

The first thing I see that will nerf him is getting the correct age in the database. He debuted at age 30, not age 21. I also see that you had "retire according to history" off. In such a case, the OOTP development engine takes over when his real-life stats end (and because of the age issue, it took him over as a 23-year-old so unlike real life, the engine had his prime to develop him). Absent retire-to-history, any D-leaguer can develop to be that great be they an NeL player or a D-league handful-of-games-MiLB fellow. I ran a historical last week and had multiple "Ballplayer XYZ" as all-stars because the engine took them over as D-league kids (non-NeL'ers) and just moved them up and developed them. It was frustrating. Sometimes you want Gehrig and select folks to not be so limited as retire-to-history makes them, but the flip side of that coin is all the surprising MiLB players that break out. I reckon reducing Talent Randomness might help me the next time I try that.

Either way, he wasn't a great pitcher and those stats if accumulated in the AL/NL wouldn't have made him good - though again, maybe the engine runs with him after the stats run out, regardless. For the missing HR, there will have to be some sort of plug put in by OOTP to round that out. Even if just the MLB average per inning for that year.

EDIT: I was curious how he did in my last sim. The retire-to-History had him with two years, one good one in the NeL and then one below-average one with the Yanks,

Hoiles · 04-30-2022, 03:52 PM

Yeah, I think I had "the retire according to history" box checked off and turned it back on halfway through to see if that changed anything. The point about the age is good. Anyways, it's just an illustrative example of how the available stats often aren't reliable and can screw up the imports. With the Seamheads data, Smaulding with that 5.24 ERA obviously allowed more than 1 HR in 67 IP, so his movement rating should be nerfed.

joefromchicago · 04-30-2022, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hoiles

Thanks for getting it back on point.

It's clear data quality is an issue. For example, in my test sim, Owen Smaulding is the dominant pitcher of his era. He has a nice Wikipedia article, but also a real-life 5.42 ERA according to his profile. Regardless, the relatively low imported HR and BB (and relatively respectable 3.68 FIP) credited him to have 80 movement/75 control ratings at his peak. In particular, the HR rate was probably unrealistically low. With the "three true outcomes" model, it might be more realistic to extrapolate the HR from the ERA than assume that all home runs were counted in his stats.

Where did those "in real life" stats come from? Seamheads and BBRef both have Smaulding as pitching 67 innings in his two-year career, whereas OOTP has him throwing 188. Seamheads and BBRef have him pitching in 15 games and starting 11. OOTP has him pitching 36 games and starting 32. That's a big difference. Does OOTP have better sources for the Negro Leagues than Seamheads? Seems unlikely.

LansdowneSt · 04-30-2022, 06:45 PM

OOTP would be the first to tell you their Real-Life NeL stats are out-of-date. I'm sure they were sourced as well as they could have been at the time (several years ago) but they haven't been updated to reflect the latest research. Seamheads is the gold standard. Baseball-Reference now gets its NeL stats from Seamheads but does so in scheduled updates whereas Seamheads' updating is more dynamic as its their research updating their site as they go.

luckymann · 04-30-2022, 08:53 PM

From memory they (SH) just had a big find as well, which has allowed a substantial update to their stats.

djc · 08-04-2023, 04:36 PM

Playing OOTP24 and noticing there is a change for the positive in the Negro League players making it into the majors. Simming away from 1918 to 1925 so far and I see a pattern with pitchers making onto mlb teams in their rookie years. Not many hitters though even guys like Jud Wilson, Cristobal Torriente, Oscar Charleston etc. are only getting to play partial time in the majors at best. On a positive note I do see players being promoted from the NeL to the majors. There are also some NeL players going from the NeL to AAA and AA. So some movement seems more realistic. Will continue to let the game sim away until 1949.

djc · 08-04-2023, 04:36 PM

So on that note is there a way to modify the database to rectify the above mentioned issue?

LansdowneSt · 08-04-2023, 04:43 PM

I’d call it a work in progress. Every year we fans of the NeL hope for improvements in incorporating / translating them into game. I’m keeping the faith.

djc · 09-02-2023, 05:04 PM

Still simming away now in 1928. More negro league pitchers being drafted directly to major league clubs while the hitters are finding it hard to make MLB rosters. Even the great Oscar Chaleston now 32 years old has only 654 games played after 14 seasons. His hitting is somewhat decent with a .284 BA, .340 OBP and .422 SLG career. He is having to share time with Dale Alexander, Ed Morgan and Charlie Jamison in the Reds outfield. Another example is Dick Lundy batting .289 with 470 games after 13 seasons. He is on the Washington Senators. Yeah these guys are making MLB clubs but they are getting the ABs, maybe there is too much competition. The pitchers on the other hand like Andy Cooper, Carl Glass, Tom Williams, Harry Salmon, Bullet Rogan, Webster McDonald etc. are all on clubs starting rotations and racking up the wins. Lefty Williams for example has as many career wins as Grover Cleveland Alexander at 167. Granted Williams has pitched in 4 more seasons but you get the point!

A couple of positive notes, with the inclusion of the minor leagues, some Negro leaguers actually get demoted into AAA and AA which I think is pretty realisitic.

One thing about the minors I don't understand is why don't players get promoted out of the NeL into the majors. They are either drafted into and stick with a MLB club or get sent down to the NeL or AAA or AA as mentioned above, but never promoted unless I try to manually push them up. I would like to see the game take into account some players might take time to get their skills honed to a major league level and then get promoted. Isn't that what happens in the majors to just about every MLB star. Joe D and Ted Williams started in AAA before going into the majors so why not negro stars ie. Alejandro Oms, John Beckwith, Spot Poles, Cool Papa Bell and many others. Just my two cents.

djc · 09-28-2023, 03:25 PM

Blacks In The Majors Leagues

By 1950 there were 16 black players in the minors and 10 in the majors. In Eric Chalek's MLE spreadsheet there are 78 black players listed in 1950. That equates to 20% blacks in the minors and 13% blacks in the majors and a total of 33%. By those numbers it is possible that in the hay day of black baseball the 1930s and 1940s there could have been 45 black players, (18 in majors and 27 minors) involved in major league baseball. Here is the breakdown of black players who made their way to the major league in the late 1940s.

1946 - Jackie Robinson – Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals
Roy Campanella – Dodgers B level affliate, Nashua, New Hampshire
Don Newcombe – Dodgers B level affliate, Nashua, New Hampshire
1947 - Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB
Larry Doby – Indians MLB
Don Newcombe - Dodgers B level affliate, Nashua, New Hampshire
Roy Campanella - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals
1948 – Roy Campanella – Dodgers MLB
Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB
Satchel Paige – Indians MLB
Larry Doby – Indians MLB
Luke Easter – Homestead Grays negro league
Hank Thompson – Newark Eagles negro league
Don Newcombe - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals
Roberto Avilla – Indians AAA affliate, Baltimore Orioles
Minie Minoso – Indians A affliate, Dayton
1949 – Roy Campanella – Dodgers MLB
Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB
Satchel Paige – Indians MLB
Larry Doby – Indians MLB
Minnie Minoso – Indians MLB
Luke Easter - Indians MLB
Hank Thompson – Giants MLB
Monte Irvin - Giants AAA afliate, Jersey City, then Giants MLB
Roberto Avilla – Indians AAA affliate, Baltimore Orioles
Booker McDaniel – Cubs AAA affliate, Los Angeles
Dave Barnhill – Giants AAA affliate, Minneapolis
Dan Bankhead - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals
Ford Smith – Giants AAA afliate, Jersey City
Frank Austin – Yankees AAA affliate, Newark
Ray Dandridge - Giants AAA affliate, Minneapolis
Sam Jethroe - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals
Luis Marquez - Yankees AAA affliate, Newark
Harry Simpson - Indians A affliate, Wilkes-Barre
Bob Thurman - Yankees AAA affliate, Newark
Artie Wilson – Indians AAA affliate, San Diego
Roy Welmaker – Indians A affliate, Wilkes-Barre
Al Smith - Indians A affliate, Wilkes-Barre
George Crowe – Braves B affliate, Pawtucket
1950 - Roy Campanella – Dodgers MLB
Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB
Satchel Paige – Indians MLB
Larry Doby – Indians MLB
Minnie Minoso – Indians MLB
Monte Irvin - Giants MLB
Roberto Avilla – Indian MLB
Luke Easter - Indians MLB
Sam Jethroe - Dodgers MLB
Hank Thompson – Giants MLB

What would the possible realistic outcome be if there was no negro league and no color barrier exhisted?

The total number of players in Eric's MLE list is 433 players, so if we put the percentages to work from above. It equates to 46 major leaguers, 86 minor leaguers, with the 299 remaining players at B level or lower. Keep this in mind this is just my hypothisys. Another way to look at is most of the 46 possible major leaguer would have spent 10 years in the majors, sincle the negro leagues were around to roughly 30 years that'c close to 10 players per year in the majors and roughly the same in the minors since those players are more likely to play 5 or so years. Out of those 10 players do all of them make the starting rosters?

What I have found is most clubs are satisfied with their middle of the field players, catcher, short stop, and centerfielder. So that makes it hard for negro league stars like Oscar Charleston, John Henry Lloyd, Pete Hill, Josh Gibson etc. to find a job. Surely the guys mentioned should make a roster somewhere? They would be more likely to make a bottom tier club or be a backup player on the top level club. When it comes to pitching most of the clubs have at least two top notch starters and the better teams have three if not four. So where does it leave for the negro league pitchers? The Satchel Paige, Dick Whitworth, Dave Brown, Dick Redding, Rube Foster calibur pitchers will probably get a starting role on a bottom tier club. Some two way players like Martin Dihigo, Bullet Rogan will probably find a role as either a bull pen pitcher or backup fielder.

My conculsion, the Nego League was a wonderful thing and we should be thankful for those players who provided so many folks with some great memories. Yes it is disheartening for the 150 or so players who could have made their mark in the majors and or minors. How would the 150 or so white players have done in the minor leagues, or out of baseball all to gether? Where would the other 300 or so negro league players have gone? Maybe the minor leagues could have flourished in the 1920s, 30s and 40s with more talent from the negro leagues?

My apologies if I missed a player from the list above.

04-30-2022, 12:47 PM	#23
Hoiles All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Canada Posts: 574	Thanks for getting it back on point. It's clear data quality is an issue. For example, in my test sim, Owen Smaulding is the dominant pitcher of his era. He has a nice Wikipedia article, but also a real-life 5.42 ERA according to his profile. Regardless, the relatively low imported HR and BB (and relatively respectable 3.68 FIP) credited him to have 80 movement/75 control ratings at his peak. In particular, the HR rate was probably unrealistically low. With the "three true outcomes" model, it might be more realistic to extrapolate the HR from the ERA than assume that all home runs were counted in his stats. Attached Images

04-30-2022, 03:25 PM	#25
LansdowneSt Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: From Duxbury, Mass residing Baltimore Posts: 7,138	Looking at Owen Smaulding... The first thing I see that will nerf him is getting the correct age in the database. He debuted at age 30, not age 21. I also see that you had "retire according to history" off. In such a case, the OOTP development engine takes over when his real-life stats end (and because of the age issue, it took him over as a 23-year-old so unlike real life, the engine had his prime to develop him). Absent retire-to-history, any D-leaguer can develop to be that great be they an NeL player or a D-league handful-of-games-MiLB fellow. I ran a historical last week and had multiple "Ballplayer XYZ" as all-stars because the engine took them over as D-league kids (non-NeL'ers) and just moved them up and developed them. It was frustrating. Sometimes you want Gehrig and select folks to not be so limited as retire-to-history makes them, but the flip side of that coin is all the surprising MiLB players that break out. I reckon reducing Talent Randomness might help me the next time I try that. Either way, he wasn't a great pitcher and those stats if accumulated in the AL/NL wouldn't have made him good - though again, maybe the engine runs with him after the stats run out, regardless. For the missing HR, there will have to be some sort of plug put in by OOTP to round that out. Even if just the MLB average per inning for that year. EDIT: I was curious how he did in my last sim. The retire-to-History had him with two years, one good one in the NeL and then one below-average one with the Yanks, Attached Images Last edited by LansdowneSt; 04-30-2022 at 05:17 PM.

04-30-2022, 06:45 PM	#28
LansdowneSt Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: From Duxbury, Mass residing Baltimore Posts: 7,138	OOTP would be the first to tell you their Real-Life NeL stats are out-of-date. I'm sure they were sourced as well as they could have been at the time (several years ago) but they haven't been updated to reflect the latest research. Seamheads is the gold standard. Baseball-Reference now gets its NeL stats from Seamheads but does so in scheduled updates whereas Seamheads' updating is more dynamic as its their research updating their site as they go. Last edited by LansdowneSt; 04-30-2022 at 06:47 PM.

04-30-2022, 08:53 PM	#29
luckymann Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 12,994	From memory they (SH) just had a big find as well, which has allowed a substantial update to their stats. __________________ HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS CUSTOM SAVES ECLIPSE LEAGUE MOON SHOT LEAGUE EVERYMAN LEAGUE GULF LEAGUE USBA

08-04-2023, 04:43 PM	#32
LansdowneSt Global Moderator Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: From Duxbury, Mass residing Baltimore Posts: 7,138	I’d call it a work in progress. Every year we fans of the NeL hope for improvements in incorporating / translating them into game. I’m keeping the faith. __________________ Complete Universe Facegen Pack 2.0 (mine included) https://www.mediafire.com/file_premi...k_2.0.zip/file Just my Facegen Pack: https://www.mediafire.com/file_premi..._Pack.zip/file

04-30-2022, 03:52 PM	#26
Hoiles All Star Reserve Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Canada Posts: 574	Yeah, I think I had "the retire according to history" box checked off and turned it back on halfway through to see if that changed anything. The point about the age is good. Anyways, it's just an illustrative example of how the available stats often aren't reliable and can screw up the imports. With the Seamheads data, Smaulding with that 5.24 ERA obviously allowed more than 1 HR in 67 IP, so his movement rating should be nerfed.

08-04-2023, 04:36 PM	#30
djc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 61	Playing OOTP24 and noticing there is a change for the positive in the Negro League players making it into the majors. Simming away from 1918 to 1925 so far and I see a pattern with pitchers making onto mlb teams in their rookie years. Not many hitters though even guys like Jud Wilson, Cristobal Torriente, Oscar Charleston etc. are only getting to play partial time in the majors at best. On a positive note I do see players being promoted from the NeL to the majors. There are also some NeL players going from the NeL to AAA and AA. So some movement seems more realistic. Will continue to let the game sim away until 1949.

09-02-2023, 05:04 PM	#33
djc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 61	Still simming away now in 1928. More negro league pitchers being drafted directly to major league clubs while the hitters are finding it hard to make MLB rosters. Even the great Oscar Chaleston now 32 years old has only 654 games played after 14 seasons. His hitting is somewhat decent with a .284 BA, .340 OBP and .422 SLG career. He is having to share time with Dale Alexander, Ed Morgan and Charlie Jamison in the Reds outfield. Another example is Dick Lundy batting .289 with 470 games after 13 seasons. He is on the Washington Senators. Yeah these guys are making MLB clubs but they are getting the ABs, maybe there is too much competition. The pitchers on the other hand like Andy Cooper, Carl Glass, Tom Williams, Harry Salmon, Bullet Rogan, Webster McDonald etc. are all on clubs starting rotations and racking up the wins. Lefty Williams for example has as many career wins as Grover Cleveland Alexander at 167. Granted Williams has pitched in 4 more seasons but you get the point! A couple of positive notes, with the inclusion of the minor leagues, some Negro leaguers actually get demoted into AAA and AA which I think is pretty realisitic. One thing about the minors I don't understand is why don't players get promoted out of the NeL into the majors. They are either drafted into and stick with a MLB club or get sent down to the NeL or AAA or AA as mentioned above, but never promoted unless I try to manually push them up. I would like to see the game take into account some players might take time to get their skills honed to a major league level and then get promoted. Isn't that what happens in the majors to just about every MLB star. Joe D and Ted Williams started in AAA before going into the majors so why not negro stars ie. Alejandro Oms, John Beckwith, Spot Poles, Cool Papa Bell and many others. Just my two cents.

09-28-2023, 03:25 PM	#34
djc Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 61	negro league players making the majors Blacks In The Majors Leagues By 1950 there were 16 black players in the minors and 10 in the majors. In Eric Chalek's MLE spreadsheet there are 78 black players listed in 1950. That equates to 20% blacks in the minors and 13% blacks in the majors and a total of 33%. By those numbers it is possible that in the hay day of black baseball the 1930s and 1940s there could have been 45 black players, (18 in majors and 27 minors) involved in major league baseball. Here is the breakdown of black players who made their way to the major league in the late 1940s. 1946 - Jackie Robinson – Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals Roy Campanella – Dodgers B level affliate, Nashua, New Hampshire Don Newcombe – Dodgers B level affliate, Nashua, New Hampshire 1947 - Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB Larry Doby – Indians MLB Don Newcombe - Dodgers B level affliate, Nashua, New Hampshire Roy Campanella - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals 1948 – Roy Campanella – Dodgers MLB Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB Satchel Paige – Indians MLB Larry Doby – Indians MLB Luke Easter – Homestead Grays negro league Hank Thompson – Newark Eagles negro league Don Newcombe - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals Roberto Avilla – Indians AAA affliate, Baltimore Orioles Minie Minoso – Indians A affliate, Dayton 1949 – Roy Campanella – Dodgers MLB Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB Satchel Paige – Indians MLB Larry Doby – Indians MLB Minnie Minoso – Indians MLB Luke Easter - Indians MLB Hank Thompson – Giants MLB Monte Irvin - Giants AAA afliate, Jersey City, then Giants MLB Roberto Avilla – Indians AAA affliate, Baltimore Orioles Booker McDaniel – Cubs AAA affliate, Los Angeles Dave Barnhill – Giants AAA affliate, Minneapolis Dan Bankhead - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals Ford Smith – Giants AAA afliate, Jersey City Frank Austin – Yankees AAA affliate, Newark Ray Dandridge - Giants AAA affliate, Minneapolis Sam Jethroe - Dodgers AAA affliate, Montreal Royals Luis Marquez - Yankees AAA affliate, Newark Harry Simpson - Indians A affliate, Wilkes-Barre Bob Thurman - Yankees AAA affliate, Newark Artie Wilson – Indians AAA affliate, San Diego Roy Welmaker – Indians A affliate, Wilkes-Barre Al Smith - Indians A affliate, Wilkes-Barre George Crowe – Braves B affliate, Pawtucket 1950 - Roy Campanella – Dodgers MLB Jackie Robinson - Dodgers MLB Satchel Paige – Indians MLB Larry Doby – Indians MLB Minnie Minoso – Indians MLB Monte Irvin - Giants MLB Roberto Avilla – Indian MLB Luke Easter - Indians MLB Sam Jethroe - Dodgers MLB Hank Thompson – Giants MLB What would the possible realistic outcome be if there was no negro league and no color barrier exhisted? The total number of players in Eric's MLE list is 433 players, so if we put the percentages to work from above. It equates to 46 major leaguers, 86 minor leaguers, with the 299 remaining players at B level or lower. Keep this in mind this is just my hypothisys. Another way to look at is most of the 46 possible major leaguer would have spent 10 years in the majors, sincle the negro leagues were around to roughly 30 years that'c close to 10 players per year in the majors and roughly the same in the minors since those players are more likely to play 5 or so years. Out of those 10 players do all of them make the starting rosters? What I have found is most clubs are satisfied with their middle of the field players, catcher, short stop, and centerfielder. So that makes it hard for negro league stars like Oscar Charleston, John Henry Lloyd, Pete Hill, Josh Gibson etc. to find a job. Surely the guys mentioned should make a roster somewhere? They would be more likely to make a bottom tier club or be a backup player on the top level club. When it comes to pitching most of the clubs have at least two top notch starters and the better teams have three if not four. So where does it leave for the negro league pitchers? The Satchel Paige, Dick Whitworth, Dave Brown, Dick Redding, Rube Foster calibur pitchers will probably get a starting role on a bottom tier club. Some two way players like Martin Dihigo, Bullet Rogan will probably find a role as either a bull pen pitcher or backup fielder. My conculsion, the Nego League was a wonderful thing and we should be thankful for those players who provided so many folks with some great memories. Yes it is disheartening for the 150 or so players who could have made their mark in the majors and or minors. How would the 150 or so white players have done in the minor leagues, or out of baseball all to gether? Where would the other 300 or so negro league players have gone? Maybe the minor leagues could have flourished in the 1920s, 30s and 40s with more talent from the negro leagues? My apologies if I missed a player from the list above.