Historical Minor Leagues

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by thehef

Even as an option, I don't see how this could work. I mean, from a stats & ratings perspective, what's the difference between a truly career minor leaguer, and another guy whose spent his entire career in the minors except for a brief appearance or two in the Show. All other things being equal, the difference between the two players' ratings would be negligible, with each just as likely or unlikely as the other to make the majors.

Real life, no difference, because its a coin toss who made it briefly to MLB. However in the game the cup of coffee player is rated on his MLB record with make bad adjustments while the career minor league player is rated on his minor league record.

Originally Posted by thehef

How much TCR are you using?

Default, 100.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by Brad K

... in the game the cup of coffee player is rated on his MLB record with make bad adjustments while the career minor league player is rated on his minor league record.

Hmm... Are you sure? I assume a guy's ratings would be based as follows:

YEAR - what level he played; what his ratings are based upon...
1970 - rookie ball; his rookie ball stats
1971 - A ball; A-ball stats
1972 - A and AA; combination of his A & AA stats
1973 - AAA; his AAA stats
1974 - AAA with a cup of coffee in MLB; mostly on his AAA stats, with some MLB thrown in
1975 - MLB; MLB stats

Is that not your understanding? (Or can anyone confirm or correct?)

Originally Posted by Brad K

Default, 100.

I would think for a true analysis of how frequently minor leaguers do or don't make MLB compared to how often we think they should, you'd want this at 0. Might not be appropriate for the game you want to play, but for the analysis...

[Brad K]

Here's Carlos Bernier

1952 minors on 723 PAs 301/360/406
1953 majors on 366 PAs 213/332/316
1954 minors on 494 PAs 313/392/439

Rating on the single year, 1953, OOTP gives him 220/338/318

Rating on three years, 52, 53, 54, no double weight OOTP gives him 220/338/318

So it seems minor league record doesn't matter for a player who made it to the majors. This creates and apple and oranges situation between players who made the majors briefly, and those who did not.

NOTE: The conclusions of this post are in error. Game requires import of full minors to consider minors in rating. See below.

[Brad K]

OK for speed in created the saves for the posts above I didn't import complete minors.

However importing complete minors means Bernier gets some credit for his great minor league performances in 52 and 54 on a three year rating system. He moves to 242/322/340. On single year his ratings match those posted earlier.

So I'm satisfied an effort has been made to equalize things for players who barely made the majors and those who didn't at all when multiple years are used for ratings.

[Brad K]

I was going to try to calculate how much weight was given minors performance by double weighting the MLB year (single weight in previous posts).Turns out its the same. So that brings in the question whether the adjustment is directly related to minor league stats. Perhaps I can locate another player with a similar history to Bernier.

[thehef]

I think what you're saying is good news.

So have we determined that if a guy, say, split time between majors and minors in a given year, that (assuming historical minors are enabled), his ratings for that year would be a product of both his milb and MLB stats?

[Brad K]

I don't know about that situation. I've only tested full years in majors and minors.

With full minors import some players ratings will be different than without full minors when 3 year is used.

On 53 only major league 220/338/318
On 52 53 54 minor major minor 242/322/340
On 52 only minor 256/308/345
On 51 52 53 minor minor major 235/301/324

So the best thing for Bernier is to bring him up to MLB in 1952.

My guess on this is that Bernier had more ability than shown by his 1953 MLB stats and the situation of the time got him set back to the minors... the deal at the time when a Black player had to be a star to stay in the majors.

[Brad K]

On multi year ratings first players get different ratings depending on whether the setting is full minors or not. With 3 year ratings and no minors a first year player is rated on his first two years in the majors. With minors enabled his ratings include his last minor league season.

The system acknowledges the unreliability of low ABs with the adjustment routine. It seems better ratings could be obtained in this situation by including the last minor league year even if full minors aren't enabled.