Analyzing RP

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

I'd be careful taking anything from that source as gospel unless you've checked the underlying maths and the methods used to deduce it. When I first became aware of his popularity I saw two of his theories spread as gospel on Reddit (importance of Catcher Ability, and his re-ranking of the importance of various Infield Fielding ratings), and both were absolute bunk and full of holes that made the conclusion less than useless.

Yes, I too have seen the video in which he contends catcher defensive ability is no longer as important as it once was. He then proceed to say that RF was more important than C defensively...and that 3B had become immensely important defensively. (after SS & CF)

[PSUColonel]

It may be too late for my current season...(although I do have a pitcher in AAA that fits the bill) but I think I am going to begin re-adjusting my strategy in terms of how to build a bullpen.

First, I will still hold on to a few "lights out power pitchers" if I can to setup and close games. Nothing wrong with that IMO.

To me, the the issue is mainly in middle relief. I need to re-think the types of pitchers I want here I think. It seems that the "quintessential relief pitcher types" just are not cut out for these roles....at least not on a consistent basis. These pitchers are the ones we all know...the high stuff, high movement, lower control types with 2.5 to 3 pitches. They may be groundballers, but it doesn't seem to make a huge difference to me, maybe a little.

To me, the answer is to stock the rest of the bullpen with "failed starters". Pitchers with lower stuff, lower movement, higher control and usually 4-5 pitches. They also will usually have higher stamina, which I think may be very important in middle relief. So basically these are the pitchers that can be a decent 5th starter, or a starter at the AAA level....but probably most effective as RP at the MLB level.

Thoughts?

[perez24]

[QUOTE=Anonymous Ghost;4953758]I look at Shutdowns versus Meltdowns (see Expanded Pitching Statistics 2).

Is Expanded Pitching Statistics 2 the name of a thread or yet another I don't know about this game despite playing it for nearly 20 years!!!!

[PSUColonel]

These do exist and have so now for a few versions.

[Anonymous Ghost]

[QUOTE=perez24;4954260]

Originally Posted by Anonymous Ghost

I look at Shutdowns versus Meltdowns (see Expanded Pitching Statistics 2).

Is Expanded Pitching Statistics 2 the name of a thread or yet another I don't know about this game despite playing it for nearly 20 years!!!!

Go into a pitcher's Player Profile. Click on the "Pitching Stats" tab. Then under "View" select "Expanded Pitching Statistics 2."

[jimmysthebestcop]

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

I don't think there is anything better for evaluating relievers and other pitchers than their actual stuff, movement, control, pitch ratings, groundball/flyball tendency, and velocity. If you have good scouting accuracy and rely on these indicators, you're always going to get great results.

Sabermetrics are just the output that measures and verifies the impact of these core indicators in OOTP.

If you find a reliever who has good ratings in all three core categories, good pitch ratings across all of his pitches, and he's a groundball specialist with good velocity, he's an ideal choice. If he has at least three pitches and he throws them all well, and he has some decent stamina, that's also helpful.

As soon as you start drifting into guys with weaknesses in their ratings or pitch ratings, you're going to have problems. If they're also flyball pitchers or don't have great velocity, that can make things worse. If they have significant limitations where they're too one-dimensional, can't throw all their pitches well, or don't have the stamina to pitch around good hitters and pitch through a longer inning without getting tired, that's another issue.

All it takes is one weak rating or wrong tendency in the wrong place, and you can end up having consistent problems with a reliever. I've seen it countless times.

As soon as you acquire relievers who have better ratings and tendencies in all the right places, these problems stop or become much more rare. In my experience, it's as simple as that.

Very true. You should be able to pluck out minor leagues guys just by their ratings and know if they will do good in the show. there are ton of relievers who get stuck in A ball who can produce on mlb level but the AI teams ignore them.

You just almost will never have enough stats to judge young RP either. Sure if its a 10 year rp vet but then you dont need really need ratings.

My bullpen is almost entirely constructed from minor league players i trade for and promote. once there rookie deal expires they get traded and i repeat the process.

It is one of the few times I dont bother with stats cause there will never be enough stats to analysis.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Very true. You should be able to pluck out minor leagues guys just by their ratings and know if they will do good in the show. there are ton of relievers who get stuck in A ball who can produce on mlb level but the AI teams ignore them.

You just almost will never have enough stats to judge young RP either. Sure if its a 10 year rp vet but then you dont need really need ratings.

My bullpen is almost entirely constructed from minor league players i trade for and promote. once there rookie deal expires they get traded and i repeat the process.

It is one of the few times I dont bother with stats cause there will never be enough stats to analysis.

Good point! Sample size is definitely lacking when it comes to RP, and I find myself very quick to demote or waive RP in favor of others, and I am constantly in a game of musical chairs.

The best bet is probably to take what you can clearly see are the better rated RP and leave them in the pen, while definitely having to guess a little with the others who all seem so similar. So basically any RP that is rated a 50 or above should probably have a spot in the bullpen. After that, it does get a bit trickier I think. This is great though, because it is what actual teams go through (especially in spring training) when trying to figure out who will be getting those other 4 or 5 spots.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by MathBandit

I'd be careful taking anything from that source as gospel unless you've checked the underlying maths and the methods used to deduce it. When I first became aware of his popularity I saw two of his theories spread as gospel on Reddit (importance of Catcher Ability, and his re-ranking of the importance of various Infield Fielding ratings), and both were absolute bunk and full of holes that made the conclusion less than useless.

Do you have any good suggestions for OOTP resources, strategy talk, tutorials etc?

I have stumbled upon SGT Mushroom and PFHolden on YouTube. Neither seem to be very active any longer, but I do assume so of the old videos are still pertinent even though there have been quite a few changes to OOTP 23.

They don't necessarily need to be videos, but anything that deals with strategy and thought process are the types of things I'd. be interested in reading, viewing, or listening to.

[Anonymous Ghost]

Not sure if you saw it, but PFHolden published videos about 7 months ago specific to OOTP 23. He's probably the single best resource on Youtube for OOTP.

I don't agree 100% with all the advice he offers, but this is a good overview of OOTP strategies across several domains of the game. At the very least, it's a good conversation starter.

[PSUColonel]

Originally Posted by Anonymous Ghost

Not sure if you saw it, but PFHolden published videos about 7 months ago specific to OOTP 23. He's probably the single best resource on Youtube for OOTP.

I don't agree 100% with all the advice he offers, but this is a good overview of OOTP strategies across several domains of the game. At the very least, it's a good conversation starter.

Thank you...these videos look to be somewhat informative...thank you!

[Karl Pagel Blues]

Originally Posted by Anonymous Ghost

Not sure if you saw it, but PFHolden published videos about 7 months ago specific to OOTP 23. He's probably the single best resource on Youtube for OOTP.

I don't agree 100% with all the advice he offers, but this is a good overview of OOTP strategies across several domains of the game. At the very least, it's a good conversation starter.

Thanks for the links!

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

Do you have any good suggestions for OOTP resources, strategy talk, tutorials etc?

I have stumbled upon SGT Mushroom and PFHolden on YouTube. Neither seem to be very active any longer, but I do assume so of the old videos are still pertinent even though there have been quite a few changes to OOTP 23.

They don't necessarily need to be videos, but anything that deals with strategy and thought process are the types of things I'd. be interested in reading, viewing, or listening to.

PFHolden is one of the main ways I learned, for sure.

Another great channel I have learned a lot from this year is sporer. Doesn't explicitly do tutorials/guides/etc, but it's Paul Sporer of Fangraphs so just watching him play OOTP is super educational to me.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by PSUColonel

I went on YouTube and found a video by SGT Mushroom outlining how individual pitches rank in OOTP. Here is an outline of what was discussed:


4 Pitch Pitchers:

Tier A

1. Slider
2. Knuckle Curve
3. Change-UP

Tier B

1. Forkball
2. Knuckleball
3. Screwball
4. Curveball

Tier C

1. Splitter
2. Sinker
3. Fastball

Tier D

1. Cutter

3 Pitch Pitchers (Starter)

Tier A

1. Splitter
2. Changeup
3. Slider

Tier B

1. Sinker
2. Knuckle Curveball
3. Curveball
4. Fastball

Tier C

1. Forkball
2. Screwball

Tier D

1. Cutter


3 Pitch Pitchers (Relievers)

Tier A

1. Knuckleball
2. Knuckle Curveball
3. Changeup
4. Slider

Tier B

1. Spliter
2. Curveball
3. Fastball

Tier C

1. Sinker
2. Forkball
3. Screwball

Tier D

1. Cutter

2 Pitch Pitchers

Tier A

1. Splitter
2. Knuckle Curve
3. Slider

Tier B

1. Changeup
2. Curveball
3. Fastball

Tier C

1. Sinker
2. Cutter

Tier F

1. Screwball
2. Forkball

Yeah I don’t know… the thing I like about the pitches is that they all do their own thing and I think that thing tends to vary depending on how high the Stuff rating is. For instance, I really really like the screwball as a “trick” pitch for a reliever. The thing is, you can’t use a screw baller as a specialist because the AI will treat them like a regular old right-hander when in actuality they’re a secret weapon to use against overplatooned teams (screw ballers have reverse splits). The same holds for the circle change (which, it’s weird that this person didn’t even break out the two change ups in the game, as one is more of a complementary pitch - kind of the old cliche of what separates a starter from a reliever - and the CC is basically a screwball lite). The forkball is another one that’s kind of fun because it tends to create extreme groundball guys, especially if they throw the 2 seamer (and IRL Kaz Sasaki was a lights out closer for a couple years with a 4 seamer and a pitch that was somewhere in between a splitter and an old fashioned forkball).

I’d love to see more synergies in the game but even with what we have, I think a list like this is reductive. If you really want to get down to the nitty gritty, do stuff like adding a hard thrower, a groundball specialist, a lefty and a righty specialist, and so on.