Crazy single season strikeout totals

[Hoiles]

Just saying I like the -11.9 WAR racked up by Cal, it's like he took some crazy reverse Barry Bonds anti-roids that season.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by David Watts

I really do think if minor injuries(ones that don't require trips to the IL) would force players to miss 1-3 games, instead of just supposedly affecting their performance and increasing their odds of further injury, the normal fatigue setting would be perfect.

After my post, I realized that was really the proper solution. Give catchers the same fatigue rate as position players, but each inning of catching has a very small chance of a moderate/severe injury that impacts catching ability but lasts only 1 or 2 days when rested.


A full-time catcher should average about 5-10 those per season (i.e about 15 games of extra rest). In a very lucky year, an everyday catcher could catch 150 games (i.e. 1-2 injuries, mostly missing time for fatigue). In a bad year, they might miss an extra 30 games due to nagging injuries.

[Marinersfan51]

Originally Posted by rudel.dietrich

Some of those players are modern players though.

I mean, Curtis Granderson, not like he is a 19th century player

Random debut should work no matter what year you play.

There has to be an issue here, I hope someone can identify it.

Granderson was an extremely high strikeout player, especially early in his career. It probably was the fatigue issue combined with him likely having the lowest avoid K rating in the league.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Marinersfan51

Granderson was an extremely high strikeout player, especially early in his career. It probably was the fatigue issue combined with him likely having the lowest avoid K rating in the league.

The fatigue thing is more understandable with Granderson, as it was the first year of the leagues existence, so there weren't as many available players. That being said, it absolutely ridiculous if it was fatigue that caused Cal to stink. By the that time teams had more than enough options in terms of players, as I ran deep drafts for several years to ensure that was the case.

[AlpineSK]

I brought this up a few versions ago and was dismissed about it. Player strikeout totals are WAY higher than in real life.

You can adjust things in the season totals, I guess, but not everyone is adept at doing that.

[darkcloud4579]

If you're constantly letting the game auto-adjust your league totals modifiers every year, then it will do this. Alternatively, if you're in any way juicing the stats of your players as they come into the league ,this also happens. It's fixable, but you need to adjust league totals modifiers early in the season by looking at the predictions for end of year stats to determine if there are ways you can lower things. For instance, besides lowering the modifier, you can increase offense.

But there are so many variables. Every since OOTP became an MLB-sim, it seems people are so concerned with "realism" beyond anything else, it's kind of frustrating as a fictional-only player because OOTP isn't a MLB simulation.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by darkcloud4579

But there are so many variables. Every since OOTP became an MLB-sim, it seems people are so concerned with "realism" beyond anything else, it's kind of frustrating as a fictional-only player because OOTP isn't a MLB simulation.

First you say OOTP is an MBL sim then you say it isn't.

In what kind of fictional sim would a player strike out 295 times? A game with fictional players isn't set in some kind of fantasy universe with different physics or humanoid-like creatures whose brains can't effectively handle binocular vision. Or maybe they have poor bat control because they have only one arm.

[darkcloud4579]

Originally Posted by Brad K

First you say OOTP is an MBL sim then you say it isn't.

In what kind of fictional sim would a player strike out 295 times? A game with fictional players isn't set in some kind of fantasy universe with different physics or humanoid-like creatures whose brains can't effectively handle binocular vision. Or maybe they have poor bat control because they have only one arm.

Just fix the league totals and/or modifiers. The game is very capable of doing what you want out of the box, but without someone peering into your very specific universe to see what is going on, no one can be sure if these variables are merely you all cooking the game up in a particular way or native to the game's original settings. You've played long enough to know that, though.

I think it's good for the dev team to get data on what's happening so they can tweak the game and make it work better, but so many of these posts have devolved into OMGZ THIS PLAYER ISN'T DOING HOW I EXPECTED or HOW CAN THE AI NOT KNOW NOT TO TRADE THOMAS THE TRAIN HE'S THE BEST PLAYER EVAR!

Real life bad trades happen a lot and playing almost entirely fictional with some exceptions, it seems it mostly does realistic deals and leagues feel balanced even if the outcomes aren't the ones I'm most invested in

[Brad K]

Bad trades happen real life but no one strikes out 295 times real life. I suppose that's OK with fictional players though... if the idea is once there are fictional players we must discard all references to the characteristics of real baseball.

[Marinersfan51]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Bad trades happen real life but no one strikes out 295 times real life. I suppose that's OK with fictional players though... if the idea is once there are fictional players we must discard all references to the characteristics of real baseball.

Who knows what strikeout rates are going to look like in the future. 20 years ago people could have said that about 200 strikeouts, Bobby Bonds had held the single season strikeout record for 33 years at 189. Since Mark Reynolds broke 200 Ks in 2008, it has happened 16 times since.

Is the current baseball environment going to produce a 295 K season? No, but could the baseball environment in 10 years? Absolutely.

Across 700 PA it would take a 42.1% K rate to strike out 295 times. In 2020 Miguel Sano had a 43.9% K rate and was still a league average hitter by wRC+.

From 2007-2019 the leaguewide strikeout rate increased by about 6% and the league leader is typically 10-12% over league average (16% in the case of Mark Reynolds record setting 2009). If there is another wave of increasing K% like we saw in the 2010s, then 295 could very much be in play.

The point I'm really trying to make is that we don't really know how the league environment is going to change until it does and a strict adherence to the current environment isn't necessarily the best especially for fictional players. The idea of a player hitting 50 HRs was absurd until Ruth did it. I doubt people 10 years ago would have believed that someone would lead the league in innings in a full season with under 200, but Robbie Ray lead the AL with 193 innings in 2021.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by darkcloud4579

Just fix the league totals and/or modifiers. The game is very capable of doing what you want out of the box, but without someone peering into your very specific universe to see what is going on, no one can be sure if these variables are merely you all cooking the game up in a particular way or native to the game's original settings. You've played long enough to know that, though.

I think it's good for the dev team to get data on what's happening so they can tweak the game and make it work better, but so many of these posts have devolved into OMGZ THIS PLAYER ISN'T DOING HOW I EXPECTED or HOW CAN THE AI NOT KNOW NOT TO TRADE THOMAS THE TRAIN HE'S THE BEST PLAYER EVAR!

Real life bad trades happen a lot and playing almost entirely fictional with some exceptions, it seems it mostly does realistic deals and leagues feel balanced even if the outcomes aren't the ones I'm most invested in

Yeah, I admit it, I did this simply to get attention. Tooks me 60 tries to get Granderson to strikeout 338 times in a season, but it was worth it. Ugh!

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Marinersfan51

Who knows what strikeout rates are going to look like in the future. 20 years ago people could have said that about 200 strikeouts, Bobby Bonds had held the single season strikeout record for 33 years at 189. Since Mark Reynolds broke 200 Ks in 2008, it has happened 16 times since.

David got his 338 Ks in 2022.

[Marinersfan51]

Originally Posted by Brad K

David got his 338 Ks in 2022.

I wasn't addressing the original issue, clearly something was broken with how the random debut was working with the modern modifiers. Not having enough players in the game to provide enough depth to avoid fatigue issues probably played a part, but it seems to go beyond just that. I am curious if with Ripken that 2026 implosion was in his age 40 season, because he really did fall off a cliff in his last year offensively. That combined with if the AI was forcing him to play exhausted (he was far from Iron Cal at that point), might be behind the dismal performance.

I was addressing your incredulity that in a fictional league environment it could be possible for strikeout rates that are significantly higher that we are currently seeing without breaking the laws of physics.

[Brad K]

Are players striking out 350 times in 2045 fictional leagues?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by Marinersfan51

I wasn't addressing the original issue, clearly something was broken with how the random debut was working with the modern modifiers. Not having enough players in the game to provide enough depth to avoid fatigue issues probably played a part, but it seems to go beyond just that. I am curious if with Ripken that 2026 implosion was in his age 40 season, because he really did fall off a cliff in his last year offensively. That combined with if the AI was forcing him to play exhausted (he was far from Iron Cal at that point), might be behind the dismal performance.

I was addressing your incredulity that in a fictional league environment it could be possible for strikeout rates that are significantly higher that we are currently seeing without breaking the laws of physics.

Just for fun I created the same type of random league and turned injuries and fatigue off completely. Same deal in regards to high strikeout numbers. I didn't look real close for guys like Ripken or Granderson that had high strikeouts and historically bad production as well, but once again the high was over 300 for a season. Like said earlier, it's just something to do with random debut and the modern modifiers not meshing as they should. I'm not even sure how they would go about fixing something like this. It could very well be like someone suggested earlier, guys from the lower strikeout periods skewing the numbers and pushing too many strikeouts on to higher strikeout guys. Wondering if I should type something in all caps, but I can't think what. Oh well, now I'm off to run tests. I'm hoping if I run enough of them, I can predict my leagues results without even having to play them.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Oh well, now I'm off to run tests. I'm hoping if I run enough of them, I can predict my leagues results without even having to play them.

Don't do it... IT'S A TRAP!

If you run enough sims from the same starting point the exact opposite will happen. What you will instead find is that RNG is very strong in this game and teams can easily have 30-win swings in their seasons.... from the same starting point.

All of that meticulous roster-building is for naught if you do not have the favor of the RNG gods.

[OutS|der]

This is all due to league totals and how the are trending towards more K's and HR's at the sacrifice of everything else.

I see you're posting the strikeout totals for players but I don't see any other info like the total K's for pitchers or the K/9 rate. What are the team strikeout totals, or league? What's the league K%

You also have to ignore the players name, can't think that Hack Wilson never struck out this many times, but as league K% is 25%, so even if Hack is well above average at 15% that's still 105K in 700 AB's

Are HR's out of wack as well?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

This is all due to league totals and how the are trending towards more K's and HR's at the sacrifice of everything else.

I see you're posting the strikeout totals for players but I don't see any other info like the total K's for pitchers or the K/9 rate. What are the team strikeout totals, or league? What's the league K%

You also have to ignore the players name, can't think that Hack Wilson never struck out this many times, but as league K% is 25%, so even if Hack is well above average at 15% that's still 105K in 700 AB's

Are HR's out of wack as well?

I provided a screenshot in this thread showing the individual pitcher strikeout records. I also provided a screenshot of the deal showing how the league totals compare to the historical totals by percentage off.

The name thing makes zero sense. If the guy that whiffed was named Elmore Gantry I would still be saying the individual strikeout numbers are out of whack. Random debut is a fun way to play, but if I was a total nutsack, I would expect Babe Ruth to hit 160 home runs in 1980, because he hit 60 in 1927. That's not how it works.

I'm sorry if my thread came off as me bashing the game. Not my intentions at all. Heck, a few posts in, I actually say that I created another random starting in 1947 and it was producing amazing numbers. I learned something from uruguru in terms of player fatigue. That being said, I was able to reproduce crazy individual whiff numbers with fatigue turned off as well. It did seem like in the no fatigue setups, the players were still able to be productive, they just whiffed a ton.

I play historical/.random debut and I have zero interest in editing modifiers. Doing that requires testing. OOTP provides historical modifiers and they work like a charm. They just don't work like a charm when it comes to random debut and modern day play. At some point, I intend on creating 2022(actual 2022, not random debut) using the historical wizard and fast simming it to see what the strikeout totals look like. I'm guessing they will be perfect.

[Brad K]

I assume with the big K guys striking out twice as often the contact guys must be hitting into twice as many DPs. Which doesn't leave much room for them to make up the productive outs the big K guys aren't getting.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Don't do it... IT'S A TRAP!

If you run enough sims from the same starting point the exact opposite will happen. What you will instead find is that RNG is very strong in this game and teams can easily have 30-win swings in their seasons.... from the same starting point.

All of that meticulous roster-building is for naught if you do not have the favor of the RNG gods.

OOTP does seem to generate a greater range of randomness than real life.