2026 Toronto Blue Jays - What if Vlad & Bo leave?

[MarkB03130313]

I am going to check out all your posts later tonight. Had been out of town, I did only read quickly, are you simming, or doing 1 pitch mode?

I realized I could export line ups

VS RH

POS Name
C Danny Jansen
C Keibert Ruiz
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B Spencer Horwitz
2B Bo Bichette
2B Harold Castro
3B Jean Segura
SS Ernie Clement
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
CF Yonathan Daza
CF Kevin Kiermaier
RF Masataka Yoshida

VS LH

POS Name
C Danny Jansen
C Keibert Ruiz
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B Spencer Horwitz
2B Bo Bichette
2B Harold Castro
3B Jean Segura
SS Ernie Clement
SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
CF Yonathan Daza
CF Kevin Kiermaier
RF Masataka Yoshida


Pitchers

SP Chris Bassitt
SP Jose Berrios
SP Kevin Gausman
SP Yusei Kikuchi
SP Alek Manoah
RP Yariel Rodriguez
RP Genesis Cabrera
RP Bowden Francis
RP Yimi Garcia
RP Tim Mayza
RP Nate Pearson
RP Erik Swanson
CL Jordan Romano

So this is my lineup after all my trades.

I am 20 games in, 9 and 10, sitting 4th in division, about the same as I expect IRL this year lol.

I have trde setting same as you almost, I am 5 clicks to the right of center for difficulty and for vets or prospects in the middle.

I am still trying to trade Vladdy. It is pathetic I can not get ****, multi player best ranked prospects I get are ranked is 200th+ and if I pick players, they suck.

Not sure what you are suppose to do to get realistic trades. I always striggle with this part of the game.

Like I said I will check out all your posts tonight!

[WarningTrakPower]

Originally Posted by MarkB03130313

are you simming, or doing 1 pitch mode?

I am simming only and going one day at a time.

[WarningTrakPower]

Below is a quick update on the IRL MLB Free Agents in this OOTP sim:

Pete Alonso - Signed 1yr deal with Atlanta (~23m) - 34HR in 96 GP and .858 OPS

Alex Bregman - Signed 1yr deal with Detroit (~23m) - .918 OPS & 3.9 WAR in 91 games

Jack Flaherty- Signed 1yr deal with Atlanta (12.2m) - ERA of 4.07 in 19 starts (8 QS)

Max Scherzer - Signed 1yr deal with Cincy (1.4m) - ERA of 5.69 in 19 starts

Anthony Santander - Signed 1yr deal with Houston (18m) then resigned for 7 years and $205.8m - Fractured his foot in April & his wrist in June / just starting rehab assignment

Nick Pivetta - Signed 1yr deal with Colorado (4.92m) - ERA of 3.88 in 20 starts

Jurickson Profar - Signed 1yr deal with NYM (14.5m) - OPS of .593 & -1.5 WAR in 80 games (76 starts)

Tanner Scott - Signed 1yr deal with Houston (12.9m) - ERA of 6.89 & -1.3 WAR in 42 games (0 saves)

Ha-seong Kim - Signed 1yr deal with NYM (24m) - OPS of .701 & 2.6 WAR in 92 games (89 starts)
Note - His defensive ratings are absurd in this sim (70,70,60,60)

Carlos Estevez - Signed 1yr deal with SD (18.8m) - ERA of 2.89 in 31 games (1 save), but 4.7 BB/9 & 7.5 K/9

Justin Verlander - Signed 1yr deal with CWS (1.82m) & traded to TB June 26th - ERA of 5.67 in 22 games (18 starts)

A few notable trades worth mentioning

Christian Walker - Traded by Houston to Baltimore for Heston Kjerstad & Max Wagner

Sandy Alcantara - Traded by Miami to Arizona in a 2 for 2 that sent Druw Jones to the Marlins

Seiya Suzuki (someone we considered trading for) - Traded to Pittsburgh for Nick Yorke

[WarningTrakPower]

Let's first start with a recap on a couple minor trades we made at the end of July:

Alek Manoah was finished his rehab assignment, so in order to activate him to MLB roster we traded Erik Swanson to Seattle for RP Tayler Saucedo (stashed in AAA).
Swanson's 2025 was almost identical to his 2024 poor showing and was on an expiring contract.

On trade deadline day, we were trying to find an upgrade in LF / RF and rather than overpay for someone we settled on a swap on Davis Schneider for Lane Thomas.



Lane Thomas on paper looks exactly like someone the IRL Blue Jays would acquire and he is on an expiring contract.
He is having a bit of a down season, but he does own a career OPS of .731.
We are going to have him starting vs LHP in RF.
Note - Nathan Lukes has been optioned to AAA.

Minnesota sent us a very interesting offer for Jake Bloss, but we decided to reject their very fair offer (which we may come to regret one day).



Santiago Leon looks like a stud on paper, but at barely 17 years old there is a lot of risk involved in a trade like this. Also, we don't feel as though this would be a realistic trade (the Twins were looking to trade away SP on their trading block).



On August 1st, the Toronto Blue Jays are sitting in 1st place in the AL East! Baltimore & Tampa Bay both sit 1.5 games behind.



The Phillies are running away with the NL East, interesting to Pittsburgh & Chicago batting it out in the NL Central, the AL West is very even from top to bottom.

So far, our team has been extremely lucky with respect to injuries and only the odd day-to-day injury so far. We will see if this holds up the rest of the way.

Here is how our starting rotation (including Yariel Rodrigeuz who is in middle relief role currently) has performed so far:



Bowden Francis got off to a rocky start, but he has been excellent the last two months.



Here is how our bullpen has performed this season:



Jeff Hoffman has also had a very good last two months (currently in setup role).



Here is how our hitters have done so far this season:



Ryan Bliss is now starting every day at 2B and we are platooning Addison Barger & Orelvis Martinez at DH.

Next team update will be at the end of the regular season!

[WarningTrakPower]

After a solid August (17-11), we had a very tough September going 9-17 and falling to a wildcard playoff spot. We finished 87-75 overall.
We will be facing Seattle on the road in the best of three series.
The Mariners finished 82-80, but 1st place in the AL West (tiebreaker with the Astros).

The Phillies finished 101-61 for top spot in the NL and the Royals had the best record in the AL at 99-63.
Baltimore finished with 92 wins and the only other teams to crack 90 wins were the Rays, Braves and Padres (1st in NL West).

LAD missed the playoffs (Shoehei Ohtani tore his labrum in July with 4.7 WAR as a hitter & 2.3 WAR as a pitcher).
He really "should be" the MVP after seeing his team falter without him.

Andres Gimenez was terrific in July & August. He also had some of the most extreme home & road splits I've ever seen (as of September 1st).
OPS at home - 1.005
OPS on the road - .548



Will Wagner truly disappointed us this season. From June 21st to July 4th he was on a little run at the plate.
We sent him down to AAA when we acquired Ryan Bliss and when he came back up in September he went 0-17.



He did really well in AAA, but was not in their starting lineup.
At this point, we will be shopping him this offseason (undeniably selling low on him).

Here are the end of season stats:



Yariel Rodriguez fractured his elbow (ouch) on August 25th.
Chris Bassitt missed some time at start of September.



Jeff Hoffman followed up two good months with a terrible September (9 ER & 10BB in 10.2 IP).
We claimed Hunter Stratton off waivers in May, but he only was recalled when Yariel was injured.



Solid production from most of the hitters in our lineup.
Ryan Bliss was an unexpected pickup, but solidified the 2B spot for us.

We expected better results from Addison Barger, but overall pleased with Orelivs Martinez in a platoon vs LHP role.

Lane Thomas had a .786 OPS in 94 PAs for us after coming over in trade.

Before we sim through the playoffs, here is a quick glance as salaries committed to beyond this season:



Note - Ernie Clement will be non-tendered (we'd be open to bringing him back on a lower contract).
Also - Nick Sandlin will likely receive ~$2.5m in arbitration when the time comes.

[WarningTrakPower]

The winner of the 2025 World Series is ...



Congrats to the San Diego Padres!!

After sweeping the Mariners (feels like justice for past defeats), we were able to upset the Orioles in four games.
We forced a Game 7 vs Kansas City, but we could not complete the comeback in the ALCS.



Here is how our pitchers performed in the playoffs (small sample of course):



And here is how our hitters did in the playoffs:



We have simmed ahead to the start of free agency.
Here are some of the top pitchers available:



Here are some of the top hitters available (including Vlad & Bo):



Without Vlad & Bo, here is how our roster looks:



Couple of glaring holes at the 2 & 3 spot in our lineup, but that will be part of the challenge to find new players via trades & free agency!

On the pitching side, we are in much better shape:



Gausman & Berrios (potential opt out after 2026) are getting older, but both has strong seasons.
Jake Bloss, Bowden Francis & Ricky Tiedemann look like core pieces though!

Next team update will likely be Opening Day 2026!

[WarningTrakPower]

Vlad Guerrero Jr has signed with the New York Mets (shocker)!



$40.5mill per year for 5 seasons after his potential opt out.

Bo Bichette has signed with the San Diego Padres!



We are sad to see them go (glad they both went to the NL), but let the fun begin!

[WarningTrakPower]

Colorado wanted to trade us Ryan McMahon, this was their offer:



We had hoped that Josh Kasevich (9th best prospect according to mlb.com for 2024) would develop in to an infield option for us, but that was not the case.
In order to get some salary retention, they really wanted a 27yr old "catcher" (45/50/45 ratings) Robert Brooks.



McMahon has been around a .725 OPS hitters (Coors Field home field too) the last couple seasons, but he is a strong defender.



McMahon will be our starting 3B for 2026 & (theoretically) 2027.

We also needed a new 1B, but we decided to move the platoon of Addison Barger & Orelvis Martinez to 1B and slide George Springer in to the DH spot (hopefully keep him healthy).

We noticed that the Athletics had Ian Happ (acquired from Chicago before the 2025 season) on the trade block.
He is owed $18m for 2026 and then he will be a free agent.
One player they were interested in was Yariel Rodriguez.
He is owed $15m over the next two seasons and has a player option in 2028 for $6m (so likely $21m total).
After some considerations, we decided to pull the trigger on this 1 for 1 swap.

Here is Ian Happ:



Happ has a lifetime .779 OPS, but is coming off a .682 OPS season where he played over 150 games.

Here is Yariel Rodriguez:



With Trey Yesavage & Juaron Watts-Brown both close to MLB ready and starting the season in AAA, we will have options to replace Yariel in the back end of the rotation.
Also - Jamie Arnold (our 1st rounder from 2025) will be in AAA very soon:



We are going to sim ahead to opening day and check back in with a new team update!

[WarningTrakPower]

We have made it through Spring Training and the only injuries we have sustained are to relievers Tommy Nance (will miss first 3 weeks or so) & Angel Bastardo (out for 4 months / still needs 72 days on active roster from a previous rule 5 draft).

Speaking of Rule 5, we lost quite a few players in the draft this last offseason, but we will see who sticks with their new teams or gets returned.



Shinnosuke Ogasawara was signed to a MiLB deal last year and had 2.7 WAR in AAA.
Rainer Nunez (now 25yr old) was someone we considered putting on 40man after a .938 OPS in AAA, but overall his ratings look more like a AAAA type player.
Michael Stefanic is similar to Nunez, but he is now 30 and a mediocre defender (more of a 1B).
Connor Cooke - In hindsight, we probably should have protected him / don't expect the Pirates to return him. He had a nice season in AAA, but issued too many free passes in 2023 & 2024 to put too much stock in the 2025 season.

We were fairly active in the waiver wire (five claims in total) once at end of January / start of February to add roster depth.



Yilber Diaz is current our long reliever in the bullpen / option #6 SP if need be.



Andrew Saalfrank is going to start as a specialist vs LHB / middle reliever after a nice season in AAA (too many walks).



Kevin Made will be our backup infielder / defensive replacement.



Petey Halpin will start as our backup outfielder / defensive replacement.



Grant McCray is a glove first outfielder we have in AAA, if need be.

Here are our starting pitchers on Opening Day:



We will give Ricky Tiedemann an opportunity in the rotation, but his lack of control & movement on paper make him look destined for the bullpen.

Here are our relief pitchers on Opening Day:



Yimi Garcia is going to start in the closer role, but ideally Jeff Hoffman will replace him there sooner than later.
Adbert Alzolay was signed to a MiLB deal last year when recovering from injury. He was added to the 40man in the offseason and signed for $1.5m to avoid arbitration.
How does Hunter Stratton have a stuff rating of 45 after having a K/9 over 10?

Here are our lineups on Opening Day:



Christian Vazquez was signed to a MiLB contract and will begin the year as our backup catcher.

Two tough roster decisions were to option Nathan Lukes & Will Wagner to AAA to start the year (they were both quite bad in 2025).
Also, Leo Jimenez was DFA'd as he was out of options.

After losing Vlad & Bo, we knew this would be a lean season, but our goal is to remain competitive.
Preseason predictions have us finishing last in the AL East at 71-91 (2nd last in the AL ahead of the White Sox).

Unfortunately, we are going to have to put a pause on this series for a few weeks until I return from work, but the next team update will likely be around July 1st (in game)!

[MarkB03130313]

Interesting dude!!!

Why didn't your try to trade Vladdy and Bo sometime through the year or by trade deadline???

[WarningTrakPower]

Originally Posted by MarkB03130313

Why didn't your try to trade Vladdy and Bo sometime through the year or by trade deadline???

The idea for this sim was a "What if they both walked in free agency?"
How difficult will it be to build a competitive team without them and only getting the draft pick compensation in return?

2025 will be a wild year IRL for Toronto, but I also feel as though the offseason after the 2026 season will be arguable more critical for their long term success / failure.
With all the contracts coming off the books (plus potential opt out for Jose Berrios), you may be looking at an uncompetitive roster.

Players currently on guaranteed contracts for 2027: Andrés Giménez, José Berríos (can opt out), Anthony Santander, Jeff Hoffman & Yariel Rodríguez.
Some arbitration eligible (future non-tenders included): Alek Manoah, Nick Sandlin, Ernie Clement, Zach Pop, Bowden Francis & Davis Schneider.

On paper - looks like they will have their fair share of pre-arb contracts (or future free agent signings).

Do you think I can set the Jays up for success in this sim heading into 2027? (knowing that 2026 may be a "down year")

[MarkB03130313]

Oh okay, I get it!!! lol.

I won't be able to post like you do, and I do one pitch at a time. I will try and post some stuff upcoming, I am like a quarter of the way into the season.

I Did sign Vladdy through 2033 for about 27.6 million a year. When I setup the league I lowered all those salary for top players, middle of the road like 10 different types of player down about 20% when setting it up.

But I am still trying to trade him, I have lowered the trade settings to the middle and it is beyond ridiculous best I can get in prospect package is 3 prospects and best is 150th prospect. Or if estalbished players a bunch of overaged players with outrageous contracts. I have lowered it to lowest setting and it does not get much better. I am always friustrated by the trades in this game, but at this point, very frustrated they are not better and more realistic. I realize the market would be limited to 8 to 10 teams, but come on, 150th prospect.

Anyways yes 2025 will be interesting in real life.

In groups I was in, ppl posting Jays going to be first,maybe second and I kept posting no, they will be fighting to not finish 5th, I found the previous couple of seasons everything went so right for them, that not be so lucky anymore. I did not think bo would have such a bad year. But I do not believe in management, they are a joke and I like John, but I feel they need a more experienced manager now and someone with no connections to some of the guys.

I think they will miss the playoffs again.But be a little better than last year.

I was season ticket holder since early 80s and went to a lot of games before than. When first set of reno's happened, my season tickets were almost 4 times as much, and not in same area as before. I was pissed and only went to 20 games, and bought not one thing Blue Jays, and in 2024 I went to one series, bought nothing of Jays things. I wanted city connect jerseys, they sucked ass!!! I bought a couple other teams instead lol. This year I have bought no tickets.

If they don't make playoffs, Berrios for sure opts out.

I think you will need to trade anyone of any value where you can get younger and get some prospects for 2026, and then start signing some guys in 2027, and hopefully with 2026 draft you have 2 or 3 guys come up and a couple guys you traded for, all up by 2029 kind of thing.But for sure you will, I just think longer than 2027 it will take.

I will continue on my merry way, I got rid of so many. I have most of the veterns on trading block. Maybe I get better action at trade deadline. I am back to 500 currently. I will trade anyone for prospects, but have to be half decent.

[WarningTrakPower]

Originally Posted by MarkB03130313

Oh okay, I get it!!! lol.

What are your thoughts on this Jays sim adding guys like Ian Happ & Ryan McMahon knowing that it will (most likely) be a down season?

I hate the idea of "tanking" by fielding an entirely uncompetitive roster, so I wanted to show up some of the roster with "veteran" MLB players.

[WarningTrakPower]

Toronto started off the 2026 campaign with a 10-6 record in their first 16.
We followed up that good start by losing the next SEVENTEEN games...

April


May


Minor roster changes we expect to make prior to our next update:
- Release George Springer perhaps (.559 OPS in 36 games at DH)
- Move Ricky Tiedemann to bullpen (too many BB) / find a 5th starter