The Denver Brewers of the W.P. Kinsella League

[BirdWatcher]

The Charlotte Sting's veteran right fielder Ricky Salinas has a reputation for inspiring the younger members of his club with his never-ending hustle and determination as well as his willingness to do whatever it takes to help his team. Salinas has often flown under the radar in his 14+ year career though he did win the SJL MVP award for his best season, when in 1974, as a member of the Jacksonville Wolf Pack, he led the league in hits with 223, batting average at .352, and WAR with 6.7.

Ricky Salinas was originally a member of the Columbus Whalers and two of his three championship rings come from his time as a member of that club. In fact, he was named the MVP of the 1969 KCS. (He was the 115th overall draft pick in the WPK Inaugural Draft.) After six seasons with Columbus, Salinas became a free agent and signed a 1-year deal to play with Charlotte for the 1971 season. After a modestly successful one year with the Sting, Salinas again tested the free agency market and this time he was inked by the Jacksonville Wolf Pack, and thus began the best years of his big league career. Although he was only a member of the Wolf Pack for three seasons, his two highest WAR years happened in a Jacksonville uniform and he earned his third WPK championship ring in 1973. He then returned to Charlotte as a free agent in the offseason prior to the 1975 campaign on a 6-year deal. Unfortunately, he has shown a propensity in his 30's for being injury prone and following his 6.7 WAR season of 1974 he has never put up a WAR higher than 2.4 in a single season.

The 4-time Gold Glove award winner (he has a career ZR of +57.6), 3-time All-Star, and 1-time Silver Slugger remains a decent hitter but he has been slowed by time and injuries and his previously superb defense is now subpar. In spite of a .291/.349/.354 start to the 1979 season he is on pace for -1.2 WAR. Ricky Salinas is almost surely not going to reach the WPK Hall of Fame but he will be remembered as a talented player with great drive and dedication and yesterday he reached perhaps the last big milestone of his career when he collected his 2,000th big league hit.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:



Game 1:



The Brewers stop the red-hot Falcons' 7-game winning streak with yet another walk-off win. Bobby Erbakan, who went 2 for 4 in the game, scoring twice and driving in 2 runs, hit the game-winning single to score Josh Schaeffer, who had doubled to lead off the inning. Bobby also hit his 2nd home run of the season in the 6th inning and Rich White hit his team-leading 4th homer in the 4th. Steve Green got the start and allowed 4 runs on 8 hits over 6 2/3rds innings. Tim Shore picks up his first win of the season. Val Guzman went 2 for 3 and hit his 5th double in the victory.

Game 2:



Sadahige Kawasaki was excellent in game 2, working 8 scoreless innings, giving up 7 hits while striking out 3 and walking 3. (Ben Flynn pitched the 9th and of course gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. What to make of Flynn?) Joe McPhillips was named Player of the Game in spite of only collecting one hit. The one hit was his 1st home run of the season and he also drew 3 bases on balls, scored twice, and drove in a pair of runs. Jake DiCesare hit his 4th double, going 2 for 4 and driving in 2 runs.

Game 3:




And go figure with this Brewers team in 1979- they've dropped three series, two of them to clearly inferior teams, and now they've also swept three series, two of them against pretty talented clubs.
The final game of this series was a squeaker, as the Brewers plated 3 runs in the 3rd inning and then just barely held on for the win. Sekien Hamaski lasted 7 innings, giving up 1 run on 5 hits while striking out 7 and walking 3 batters for his 3rd victory. Tim Shore picks up his 6th save in as many chances. Bobby Erbakan led the way offensively, going 2 for 4 with 1 run scored and 3 RBI, hitting his 1st triple of the season and his 3rd home run. Brett Taranto also went 2 for 4.


Notes from around the league:




Matt Kinney never was really given a full opportunity to show what he was capable with as a member of the Baltimore Lords but he is getting a fresh start this year after being traded from Baltimore to the Milwaukee Cadets in the offseason. And he is off to a wonderful start with his new club. The 28-year old left fielder has excellent leadership skills, a strong contact-first bat with above average power, and good speed which he uses to full advantage as an excellent base stealer and base runner. It will be fun to see what kind of damage he can inflict on opponents with the chance to finally be a full-time player.


(As we turn the calendar to the month of May we will take a closer look at the current standings in a separate post.)

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



I've been waiting for the right opportunity to talk about the great start that the winner of the last 3 consecutive SJL MVP honors has had so far, and here is that opportunity. But really, I think the numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Best baseball player in the world right now! (One more note: Lindsay is on the path to an 18.6 WAR season at the moment. Okay two more notes actually: he has gone from being considered Fragile to being Wrecked. So how much longer can he keep this up? Long enough to make it to the Hall of Fame? I hope.)

Edit/P.S.: I love the understatement in this news release. He "put together a solid offensive month." Really? Ya think?

MGL:



Kyle Luker is a 3-time All-Star so it wouldn't be fair to say that this month, or this honor, came completely out of the blue. But close. Twice in his career he has been the Player of the Week but this is the first time he has received this particular honor. Luker is a strong defensive catcher, a good teammate, and ordinarily a fairly average hitter. Nothing special. But he has clearly been pretty special to start the 1979 season.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:




Jim Norris is a 2-time SJL Pitcher of the Year (1976-1977) and he's off to a pretty good start as he tries to build a case for another and to help take his team back to the top of the SJL standings (where in fact they do currently sit.) Some of his strongest competition for the award will likely come from rotation mates Jay Crosby and Luis Ramirez (last year's award recipient.)


MGL:



Hector Hard, a 35-year old Cuban left-hander who pitched for the Denver Brewers for parts of two seasons, has always been considered a talented hurler but he struggles to stay healthy. He's certainly looked healthy thus far this season, with his only loss coming in his last start of April against his former Brewers teammates.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



Bobby Glaus was named the Rookie of the Month in the SJL for September of the 1978 season but he enters 1979 still technically a rookie and now wins back-to-back honors over the course of the two seasons. Glaus is a smart kid, a good contact hitter, and a solid defender. He doesn't look like a future superstar but chances are good that he will have a long and productive career in the WPK.

MGL:



Craig D'Urso was the Aces first round pick in 1975 out of Georgia Tech and this year he is getting a chance to be in the team's starting lineup for the first time with last year's starting center fielder Tommie Signor having moved over to right field to replace the departed (through free agency) Ryan Rodgers. D'Urso profiles as a decent little hitter but like his outfield mates Signor and Jeremy Brigatti his greatest strengths are his elite speed and tremendous outfield range. The Aces currently have arguably the fastest and most athletic outfield trio in the game.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



Perhaps a bit of KCS hangover for the champion El Paso Dawgs?


MGL:



The Charlotte Sting get hot at the end of the month while the Portland Wild Things head in the opposite direction. Oh, and do the Brooklyn Aces ever not under-achieve?

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:



Game 1:



Portland's Riverfront Stadium favors pitchers and that certainly showed in the opening game of this series, with the Brewers Erik Sloan just narrowly outpitching Portland rookie Jason Good, making his first big league start. Sloan worked 8 innings, giving up 1 run on 4 hits. Tim Shore stays perfect in 1979, getting his 7th save. Zacarias Martell, not off to a very good start, led the way offensively, going 2 for 4 with a run scored and 1 driven in. Rich White picked up his 5th stolen base of the season.

Game 2:



Jim Atwell pitched his finest game yet of the 1979 season in the middle game of the series. Atwell went the distance for the 4-hit shutout, striking out 10 batters and walking 2. Oh, and he also provided much of the Brewers offense, going 2 for 4 with a run scored and an RBI and both of his hits were doubles, to give him 3 on the season. Jake DiCesare also went 2 for 4 and swiped his first bag of the season.

Game 3:



The Wild Things avoided getting swept when they got another strong start from veteran left-hander Brad Evans, who is off to a terrific start this year. Evans is control challenged but the Brewers hitters seemed a bit impatient, playing to his strengths. He has one of the best curveballs in the game and a nasty sinker and if you are chasing his pitches it will be a long day indeed. Rookie Bryant Cox got his second start of the year and in spite of some rookie jitters- he walked the bases loaded in the 2nd inning and then gave up a 2-run single to his opposite number- he actually pitched quite well. Cox worked 8 innings (went the distance, in other words, in the road loss) giving up just 2 earned runs (defense was sloppy behind him too) on 5 hits while striking out 3 and walking 3. Cox also went 2 for 3 at the plate. Joe McPhillips (5) and Josh Schaeffer (3) both hit doubles in the game (Schaeffer's was a 2-out, pinch-hit 9th inning two-bagger but he was sadly stranded as the game ended). Jose Figueroa and Antonio Acuna each got a pair of hits in the game, with Acuna driving in the lone Brewer run.

Notes from around the league:



Who can blame veteran shortstop Melvin Mendez for wanting out of the mess in Chicago (where the team is now 6-17). Still, it is probably unrealistic for him to be demanding to be in the starting lineup when the Fire have a much more defensively skilled and younger player in Juan Romero ahead of him.

Speaking of the SJL, the Columbus Whalers stay hot and in first place with a 17-5 record and San Antonio is next at 17-7. Pittsburgh and Boston are tied for 3rd at 14-9 each.

The Brewers (16-8) now have a 1 game lead over both Los Angeles and Detroit, who have just finished a series against each other and each have a 15-9 record. Charlotte is in 4th place at 13-11. The Portland Wild Things sit in last still (having of course just dropped 2 of 3 to us) with a 7-16 mark.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:




Game 1:



So in a bit of frying pan/fire situation the Brewers travel south from Portland, and their good pitcher's park, to San Francisco, and the most extreme pitcher's park in the MGL in Bank of the West Ballpark. And sure enough they got a 1-0 win in the first game of the series with Sadahige Kawasaki pitching a 5-hit shutout, striking out 3 and walking none, and perhaps most impressively needing only 78 pitches to accomplish this. Josh Schaeffer, off to a very slow start in the walk year of his contract, went 2 for 2, drove in the lone run of the game, and hit 4th double of the season, only to have to leave the game immediately thereafter with a bad knee (turned out to be a minor day-to-day knee tendinitis issue). Sadahige Kawasaki also doubled and scored the only run.

Game 2:



And Sekien Hamasaki followed up with a fine start in game 2 to ensure a series victory for the Brewers in San Francisco. Hamasaki gave up no runs on 5 hits over his 7 1/3rd innings pitched. Tim Shore finally gave up his first run of 1979 but still held on to earn his 8th save. Antonio Acuna hit his 2nd homer of the season in the 3-run 1st inning and Rich White went 2 for 4 with 1 RBI.

Game 3:



The Velocity avoid being swept with a strong start from their young budding potential superstar starting pitcher Jon Harrington. Steve Green, who inside reports indicate recently communicated his desire to get an extension with the club and not test free agency at the end of the season (no word on whether the team is likely to agree to that), didn't pitch a bad game but falls to 0-2 on the season. Green allowed 4 runs (3 earned) on 7 hits over his 8 innings pitched. The Brewers outhit the Velocity but also played sloppy baseball- committing errors (Nick Ward, the normally steady defensive utility infielder, made all 3 errors in the game for the Brewers), hitting into double plays (3), being thrown out on the base paths (again, Ward, at third base), etc. Joe McPhillips went 3 for 4 and hit 2 doubles to get to 7.


Notes from around the league:



When it was reported in July of the 1978 season that the Detroit Falcons had acquired 25-year old catcher Zach D'Amico from Portland in a trade it was our take that this was a smart move by Detroit. And thus far in the 1979 season that seems to be playing out to be true, as the Falcons are off to great start and while D'Amico's play is certainly not the only reason, it is also not a small part of the big picture. His 3-homer day on Sunday afternoon earned him the #1 Performance of the Day honors in the WPK and he followed that up on Monday with a 3 for 5, 1 home run, 3 RBI, 3 runs scored game which once again made him the top player of the day in the league.

D'Amico's performances also helped drive his team to a pair of wins over Phoenix, who they swept, and back into a first place tie with Denver atop the MGL. (They each have 18-9 records.) L.A. is next at 17-10, and the recently hot Brooklyn Aces are in 4th place with a 14-12 mark. Portland, at 8-18, pulls up the rear.

In the SJL, the Columbus Whalers are now 18-7 and have a 1 game lead over San Antonio (18-9) and lead Pittsburgh and Boston (16-10, each) by 2 1/2 games. The Chicago Fire are now 6-20 to start the season.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:



Game 1:



After his best start of the season so far Jim Atwell suffers his worst outing in this his next start. Atwell gave up 8 runs on 9 hits (including 2 home runs) while walking 5 and striking out 4 over his 5 2/3rds innings. On the plus side, Atwell did hit his 4th double of the season in the loss. Zacarias Martell hit his first home run of the 1979 season.

Game 2:



It took 12 innings and a comeback walk-off ending, but the Brewers stopped their 2-game losing streak by winning the middle game of this series. Backup catcher Kirk Patnode, who had entered the game in the 11th inning after starter Zacarias Martell was pinch-hit for in the bottom of the 10th, got the game-tying hit and Ben Flynn got the pinch-hit sacrifice fly that won it. Erik Sloan got the start and worked 7 2/3rds innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits. Rich White was named Player of the Game for his 4 for 5, 1 run scored, 2 RBI day. Brett Taranto went 4 for 6 and hit his 3rd double of the season.

Game 3:



Behind a great performance from Sadahige Kawasaki, the Brewers take the rubber match. Kawasaki gave up 1 run on just 4 hits in his complete game victory. Jake DiCesare went 2 for 4, scoring twice and driving in 2 runs, and hit his 3rd homer of the season in the win. Val Guzman continues his fine season going 1 for 2 in this one, scoring 2 runs, drawing a pair of walks, and picking up his 6th stolen base.

Notes from around the league:



Veteran Iron Man starting pitcher Jesse Hartong continues to add to his impressive career totals and is yet another key (pun somewhat intended) to the San Antonio Keys strong start to the season. Hartong got career win number 206 yesterday as he shut down the potent Pittsburgh Roadrunners offense. Hartong is probably a borderline Hall of Fame candidate at best but if he can help lead the Keys to their first SJL title and possibly earn his first WPK championship ring, it would go a long ways to enhancing his reputation in the league.

At this moment the Keys are in a virtual tie with Columbus, though Columbus is slightly ahead in winning percentage as they have a 19-9 record (.679) to San Antonio's 20-10 (.667). Pittsburgh and Boston are tied for 3rd place at 17-10 apiece.

The MGL also sees a tie at the top, though this one is exact, with both Denver and the surprising Detroit Falcons sitting at 20-10 atop the league standings. Los Angeles is next at 18-12, and Brooklyn has now climbed to 4th place with a 16-13 record.

[BirdWatcher]

As mentioned in the previous post, veteran right-handed starting pitcher Jesse Hartong has now accumulated 206 career wins in the WPK, which currently gives him the 3rd most in the (admittedly short) history of the league, behind just Jake Harris (211) and Jason Wilson (209) and now just ahead of Cheol-han Lee, who finished his career with 205 wins. (Harris and Lee are both retired and Wilson, who won 13 games last season, is currently trying to fight his way back to the bigs at age 39, having been signed to a minor league contract by Houston.) Hartong has lost 140 games for a very respectable .595 career winning percentage.

I am currently reading the influential John Thorn and Pete Palmer baseball statistics book The Hidden Game of Baseball and having just been reading about the concept of a pitcher's Wins Above Team as a way of identifying pitchers whose individual results stood out from the team performance as a whole, I got to thinking about how this might look with Hartong's career. Now it should be noted that Hartong pitched for some pretty good teams, including a 101-win L.A. Spinners team in 1971, but he also pitched for some pretty poor clubs in his seasons with Portland and Baltimore.

So, using the method outlined in the Thorn/Palmer book (I believe there have been some more recent versions of this statistic), I crunched the numbers thus far (excluding this current season) in his career.
And the results are that his WAT is 28.3. This might not mean much to you and I haven't yet (but hope to someday) applied this tool to any other pitchers in the WPK so there is nothing to compare to in this context. Using the career numbers listed in The Hidden Game of Baseball, this total would put Hartong in between Addie Joss and Ferguson Jenkins, at number 26 on the MLB list. (The book was published in 1984 so the list would have changed a lot since then, but this gives some indication anyway.) So in other words, Hartong accounted for a little over 28 more wins for the teams he pitched for than they would have gotten from an average pitcher.

On its own this probably won't be the thing that pushes him over the line into the WPK Hall of Fame, but it is a factor to be considered.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:



Game 1:



Our head scout likes to call Phoenix Municipal Stadium a hitter's heaven, but you wouldn't have known it most of the way in game 1 of this series and for the home club there was not even the slightest hint of paradise in this game, with Sekien Hamasaki shutting them out on 6 hits. Brett Taranto was one player who seemed to agree completely with Ulrik Berthlesen's assessment, as he had a 5-hit game, scoring twice and driving in 2 runs and hit his 2nd triple of the season. Bobby Erbakan also had a good game, going 3 for 5.

Game 2:



The middle game of the series was a much more the typical slugfest one would expect in this park and with these two offensively gifted teams. Denver starter Steve Green wasn't bad, really, giving up 4 runs on 9 hits in his 6 1/3rd innings pitched in getting his first victory of the season. Bobby Erbakan had another big game, going 3 for 6 with 2 runs scored and 5 RBI and hit his 4th homer of the season. Joe McPhillips also homered- his 2nd- and though it was his only hit he did score twice (1 walk) and drove in 3 runs. Josh Schaeffer and Val Guzman also both collected 3 hits in the game, with Schaeffer hitting his 5th double and Guzman swiping his 8th base of the season.

Game 3:



And a rare low-scoring game in Phoenix in the final game but the Brewers complete the sweep with an extra-inning win. Jim Atwell didn't get a decision but pitched well, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits over 6 2/3rds innings pitched. Ben Flynn got the win with one of his best outings of the season, working 2 innings and giving up 3 hits but no runs. Tim Shore gets save number 9 in 9 chances and continues his great start. Jose Figueroa got the start at third base and though he only collected one hit it was the game-winner in the 10th and he had earlier driven in another run with a 2nd inning ground ball out. Brett Taranto went 2 for 5 and scored 2 runs including what proved to be the game winner after he doubled to open up the top of the 10th inning, his 4th double of 1978.

Notes from around the league:



Like his team, the WPK reigning champs the El Paso Dawgs, Nathan Littlepage is off to a bit of a slow start in 1979. But fans of the Dawgs hope that his 6-hit game on Friday foreshadows an upswing for both the talented young second baseman and the team on the way. (They lost the next two games, so maybe not.) Littlepage becomes just the third player in SJL history with as many as 6 hits in a game (the retired Ricky Sanches, also as member of El Paso, did it July 1st of 1968 and Jason Janes accomplished it on June 20th of 1970 as a member of the Seattle Alligators) and the sixth in WPK history (in the MGL the first was Brooklyn's Jeremy Brigatti on October 3rd of 1971, next was our old friend Ruben "Streak" Souffront for Portland on April 28th of 1975, and most recently it was L.A.'s Greg Foster on July 25th, 1977).
Littlepage's 6-hit performance took some of the spotlight away from Denver's Brett Taranto, who had a 5-hit game the same day and Brooklyn's rookie second baseman Robert Marinko, who collected 5 hits in a 13-0 rout over Charlotte the very next afternoon.

Looking at the standings, in the SJL the San Antonio Keys are in first place with a 22-11 start while Columbus stays right there with them, just 1 game back at 20-11. Boston, at 19-13, is 2 1/2 games out, while the two teams from the Keystone State, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, are now tied for 5th place at 18-14.

Even with a series sweep the Denver Brewers still find themselves neck and neck with the impressive Detroit Falcons. Both teams now sport a 23-10 record. Los Angeles is 3 games back at 20-13 with the recently hot Brooklyn Aces now in 4th place with a record of 18-14, 4 1/2 games off the pace.

[BirdWatcher]

For the fourth time in his career the Brewers star first baseman Brett Taranto gets MGL Player of the Week honors.

[BirdWatcher]

The Los Angeles Spinners talented 26-year old middle infielder Pat Mercado hit for the cycle in Monday's victory over the Phoenix Speed Devils. For Mercado it is his first career cycle and it is the first one in the WPK since his teammate Juan Bado accomplished it on July 25th of 1977.

[BirdWatcher]

Many around the WPK believe that Houston's veteran center fielder Lazaro Lowndes is the most likely player to be the first to the 3,000 hit career mark.
After a bit of a down season in 1978, Lowndes is off to a great start to the '79 season and yesterday he collected the 2,500th hit of his big league career. Up to this point of his career he has averaged 211 hits per 162 games so even with some expected decline with age it seems reasonable to expect that Lowndes will fairly easily get another 500 hits before calling it a quits on his career, one which looks like it will lead to eventual induction in the WPK Hall of Fame.

[BirdWatcher]

Having mentioned that there is good money on Lazaro Lowndes being the first man in the WPK to reach 3,000 career hits, I thought it might be a good idea to dig a bit deeper on this issue, especially as we don't want to shortchange the great Felix Lopez, who is the leader in this category and still may well get there first.

So here is a look at the top 15 all-time in hits in the short history of the WPK thus far:



Felix Lopez:
Let's start at the top and talk about future WPK Hall of Famer Felix Lopez. There is little doubt that Lopez is probably the most sure-thing first ballot HOF'er among the first wave of WPK players. The 2-time league MVP and 10-time All-Star has led the league in hits 8 times in his career and won 4 batting titles. He has averaged 215 hits per 162 games played in his career. He needs just 169 more hits to get to 3,000. The last two seasons Felix has racked up 143 and 149 hits respectively and is off to a good start at the plate again this year (.323/.347/.423). There are good reasons to believe that he will get to 3,000 before his career is over and very likely next season, which is the last one on his current contract with Washington.
However, he is injury prone and 36 years old and a subpar fielder at this stage of his career so in order for this to come true he will have to a) stay healthy and b) keep his starting job. If he stays on the pace he is on this year he is projected to collect 162 hits total (126 off the 169 he needs to get to 3,000) and would then only need 43 next year to reach this milestone. I think he'll almost surely get there, but because of the danger of injury and the very small amount of decline that would be required for him not to viable in the field anymore, I am going to estimate his chances of making it at 88%.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 88%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: 15%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: 1%

Travis Johnson:

Two time MVP Travis Johnson has led the league in hits 3 times in his career and won 2 batting titles. And although he is now 40 years old, theoretically at least he remains an even more potent hitter than Felix Lopez. Problem is, there is no place on the diamond for him to play where he isn't a liability. Last season Johnson collected 139 hits for Detroit while being an absolute disaster in left field (ZR of -20.4 leading to a WAR of 0.6). The Falcons wisely let him leave as a free agent and he signed with San Francisco where he mostly comes off the bench and occasionally plays first base (very poorly). He is hitting .238/.294/.333 and is pissed off that he isn't starting and in the middle of the lineup.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 3%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%


Josh Jenkins:

Josh Jenkins is the longtime team captain for the San Francisco Velocity and he is the most prolific base stealer thus far in WPK history (618 career stolen bases, caught stealing 199 times). At age 35 Jenkins remains a solid defender at second base and can still flat out fly on the base paths. He is a decent hitter but his years of collecting somewhere around 200 hits a season are long past. He is currently signed through 1980 and while he is starting to experience some nagging small injuries with the passage of time he is not particularly injury prone. Still, 3,000 hits seems like a bit much to ask.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 10%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: 1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Lazaro Lowndes:

We discussed Lowndes a bit of course in the previous post. So let's just cut to the chase:
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 90%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: 48%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: 7%

Jesus Casiano:

Jesus Casiano is almost surely a Hall of Famer and in 1970 he put up one of the most impressive offensive seasons yet- maybe the most impressive- in WPK history. But at age 37 there is almost nothing left for Casiano and he currently is playing for the El Paso Dawgs AAA club on a minor league contract. Maybe he gets a few more big league hits, maybe not. He is currently shy of the 2,500 mark which he might somehow sneak his way into, but beyond that, no chance.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Nate Bennett:

Nate Bennett is the most prolific power hitter in the first generation of WPK players and currently leads the WPK in career home runs with 451. But at 39 years of age and with no defensive skills left at all, he has been reduced to a bench role with the Los Angeles Spinners this season. (Last year he was a starter and hit 20 homer while driving in 88 runs and yet had a WAR of -0.2.)
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Jesus Hernandez:

Even at age 38, Jesus Hernandez remains a fine third baseman and a dangerous hitter, who in fact led the league in home runs just last season. But he's not a great contact hitter at this stage of his career and has collected just around 140 hits per season his past two seasons. He is also fragile and his contract expires at the end of this season. It is hard to imagine Hernandez getting to 3,000 hits, though 2,500 might still be within reach.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Jason Janes:

Janes had possibly the greatest outfield arm the game has yet seen and compiled 201 outfield assists over his career, a career which included 4 All-Star game appearances. He is now 36 years old and considered an Iron Man, but his bat-to-ball skills have diminished enough the he currently languishes at AAA in the San Francisco organization and likely doesn't have much, if any, big league career left.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Cody Kane:

Kane is an interesting case. The revered team captain of the Boston Berserkers is only 32 years old and remains a fine hitter. But his defense is suspect, he is quite slow, and he is very injury prone. He is off to a slow start this year though he had a solid enough season in 1978. If he can stay healthy enough he might get to 2,500 career hits. But given his small stature he is unlikely to successfully transition to first base, so his diminishing returns defensively are likely, along with his propensity for injury, to lead to an early retirement.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Ryan Rodgers:

If only Ryan Rodgers didn't have such a great eye at the plate, if only he didn't draw so many darn walks, he might have had a real shot at the 3,000 hit club. But seriously, great hitter, great player, almost surely a Hall of Famer, and no reason at all to take anything away from him for not getting to this milestone. Could he get to 2,500? Probably a long shot at age 40, but the man is on pace for a 6.2 WAR season so I guess don't count him out yet.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Danny Sanchez: Retired at end of last season.

Trevor Leach:
Another team captain, another great third baseman, another fragile old guy. (Well, only 34, but an old 34.) Still a good defender and could have a few more productive years left. But unlikely to make it to 2,500 hits, let alone 3,000 or more.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Mike Robinette:
Good guy, decent defensive second baseman still, has the wheels still at age 34, but pretty average hitter at this point and fragile. Not enough hits left in this bat to reach any significant milestones. Could make the WPK Hall of Fame, but probably will fail after being on a number of ballots and getting lukewarm support.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

David Beane:

Still surprisingly talented for a 42-year old player who was never really at the top of the talent pool in the WPK. But end of the line is in sight.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%

Ricky Salinas:

And we saw Salinas get career hit number 2,000 recently. Almost surely his last big milestone reached in that category.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%


Now of course there are younger players who have a good chance of someday getting into this discussion (Chris Tobin, Justin Vargas, Bobby Erbakan, and Kasey O'Neil are among the under 33-year olds who are nearer the top of the career list) but they are going to have to produce for a few more years before we seriously discuss their chances.

So in summation, Felix Lopez has the best chance to get 3,000 first, providing he doesn't suffer serious injuries which curtail his career before he gets there, while Lazaro Lowndes is likely the next to the club and has the best chance to get to at least 3,500 in his career of the current crop of players.

[BirdWatcher]

After the entire 1978 season passed without a single player hitting for the cycle, 1979 has now seen two hitters accomplish the feat within days of each other.



Yesterday it was the Denver Brewers Antonio Acuna who did it, becoming the third player to do so in Brewers history. (Mike Foster did it first, on August 23rd of 1972 and Joe McPhillips hit for the cycle on April 18th of the 1975 season.)

[BirdWatcher]

Sekien Hamasaki is off to another good start this season but was forced to leave Wednesday's game after a very effective 3 2/3rds innings due to soreness in his throwing elbow. He was later diagnosed as having an elbow sprain, so not the worst news, but it is expected to keep him out of action for perhaps a month and a half.



In his absence young Bryant Cox, who came into the game on Wednesday in Hamasaki's place and pitched a fine 4 1/3rd innings for the win, will get his chance to be in the regular rotation and multi-inning reliever Brandon Veach gets called up from AAA Chester to take the 25th spot on the active roster.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:



Game 1:



In the series opener against the Lords, Denver starter Erik Sloan had pitched his team to a 4-2 lead after 7 innings only to see the bullpen blow the lead and deny him, and the team, a victory. Sloan gave up 2 runs on 6 hits while striking out 8 and walking just 1 in his 7 innings. But Javy Bermudez and Rand Pinti combined to give up 3 runs in the 8th and Walter Hackler allowed 1 in the 9th and the Lords came away with the narrow victory. Joe McPhillips went 3 for 4 in the loss, driving in 2 runs and hitting his 8th double of the season. And Sloan, one of the worst hitting pitchers in the game (career slash line of .063/.077/.073) somehow got bat on ball in his 5th inning at-bat and with a strong wind blowing out to right field just barely hit the ball over the fence for his 2nd career home run (his first came way back in 1969).

Game 2:



When your bullpen is under-performing one way to get a win is to keep them out of the game entirely. Sadahige Kawasaki went the distance for the win, giving up 1 unearned run on 8 hits over his 9 innings pitched. Little Joe Willemse, getting the start at second base as Bobby Erbakan needed a breather, paced the offense with a 2 for 4, 3 RBI game and hit his 2nd double of the season. Zacarias Martell went 2 for 3 and scored twice.

Game 3:



And the Brewers get the series win with a shutout in game 3 in spite of losing starting pitcher Sekien Hamasaki to a sore elbow in the 4th inning. Bryant Cox came in to spell Hamasaki and was wonderful for 4 1/3rd innings, giving up just 2 hits while striking out 6 batters and walking none, to get the victory. Cox will take Hamasaki's place in the rotation with Sekien headed to the IL. Antonio Acuna led the offense, hitting for the cycle in his 4 for 4, 3 runs scored, 2 RBI day. He hit his 2nd double of the season, 3rd triple and 3rd home run. Bobby Erbakan also homered, his 5th of the season, though his bat has been pretty cold of late (.267/.324/.435 on the season). Val Guzman (.291/.407/.393) continues his fine start with a 2 for 5, 2 runs scored game and hit his 7th double.

Notes from around the league:




One almost feels sorry for poor Aaron McNally. He continues to be the best pitcher in the game and yet also continues to watch his talented Brooklyn Aces club underachieve year after year. The Aces have been playing pretty well lately but still find themselves in 4th place, 5 1/2 games off the pace.
And the pace setters in the MGL continue to be those upstart Detroit Falcons, who have now won 8 in a row and have a 26-10 record. Denver is in second place at 25-11, 1 game back, while Los Angeles sits in 3rd place at 23-13 and 3 games back of Detroit.

In the SJL, Columbus (23-11) and San Antonio (24-12) remain in a virtual tie for first with Boston in 3rd place at 21-14 (2 1/2 gb) and Philadelphia in 4th at 19-16 (4 1/2 gb). The Chicago Fire are now 10-25 to start the season pulling up the rear.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:




Game 1:



Really fine start from Jim Atwell in this one, as he gave up just 1 run on 5 hits in his 8 innings pitched, striking out 8 batters and walking 2. The only run he allowed was on a Jaime Benjamin solo homer, so nothing to be embarrassed about there. Antonio Acuna is making a strong case for more starting time in the outfield and he went 2 for 4 with a run scored and 2 driven in while hitting his 4th home run of the season. Bobby Erbakan was 2 for 5 and scored a pair of runs while also hitting his 6th double of 1979.

Game 2:



The Denver bullpen stole a win from Steve Green, who gave up 2 runs on 7 hits over his 7 innings pitched. Rand Pinti vultured a win he didn't deserve but the guy who really messed up big time was fellow left-handed reliever Victor Colon who gave up 4 runs on 4 hits while only recording a single out. Fortunately the bats secured the win for the Brewers and Tim Shore pitched the 9th inning to get his 10th save of the season without a blown save. Brett Taranto went 3 for 6 with a pair of RBI in this one and hit his 5th double. Nick Ward got a rare start at shortstop and produced a 3 for 5, 1 run scored, 1 RBI game, hitting his 1st double and his 2nd triple, which got things started to lead off the 3 run 9th inning that put the Brewers back on top.

Game 3:



Another fine start for veteran lefty Erik Sloan, who gave up just 1 run on 3 hits over his 8 innings pitched and Tim Shore continued to be the rock of stability anchoring an otherwise pretty shaky bullpen and he earns his 11th save of the season. Antonio Acuna, again, is grabbing attention with his play, and he went 2 for 3 with 3 runs scored and an RBI, hitting his 5th home run of the season and swiping his 4th bag. (With Josh Schaeffer in the last season of his contract and not off to a great start there is talk around Denver about the possibility that the team moves him before the trading deadline- possibly for a top-notch left-handed reliever, if they can get one- so that Acuna can be handed the full-time right field job, which he deserves at this point. It would also allow the team to bring up slugging outfielder Eric Hammock to be the 4th outfielder, especially given how much Hammock is tearing up AAA pitching.) Jake DiCesare was 2 for 4 in the win and hit his 4th homer of the season, driving in a pair of runs.

Notes from around the league:



As well as the Brewers are playing, they just can't shake those surprising Detroit Falcons, who got a fine start from veteran starting pitcher Kantaro Yasui in a 1-0 win over Brooklyn. And who was on the mound for the Aces? Well, Aaron McNally naturally.
So in the MGL the Brewers and Falcons both have 28-11 records at the top of the standings with Los Angeles, at 24-15, still in 3rd place, 4 games back, and Brooklyn in 4th with a 21-17 mark, 6 1/2 games off the pace.

Over in the SJL, things stay pretty much the same with Columbus and San Antonio still in a virtual tie for 1st (26-11 and 27-12 respectively), Philadelphia and Boston tied for 3rd, each at 21-17, 5 1/2 games back.

[BirdWatcher]

The Scouting Report:



Game 1:



The Brewers drop game 1 in Charlotte against the Sting as young inexperienced right-handed starter Bryant Cox reached the 100 pitch mark after just 5 innings pitched, having given up 4 runs on 8 hits. (Cox does not profile as a high stamina pitcher and will need to be more efficient in his outings if he is to be a viable member of the rotation.) Young outfielders Antonio Acuna and Val Guzman did their parts to try to help the Brewers get the win, alas to no avail. Acuna went 3 for 5 with 2 RBI, though he did also commit a throwing error. And Guzman was 2 for 3, walking twice, scoring a run, and hitting his 9th double of the season. (Guzman continues to show an excellent eye at the plate, beyond even any expectations the scouting staff have for him.)

Game 2:



Sadahige Kawasaki gets his 4th straight complete game victory in the middle game of the series, giving up 2 runs (1 earned) on 6 hits while striking out 5 and walking just 1. Oh, and he also went 2 for 4 at the plate, scoring twice and hitting his 2nd double of the season. Joe McPhillips only managed 1 hit in his 4 at-bats but it was a big one- a 7th inning Grand Slam that blew open what had been a close game up to that point. It was McPhillips 3rd home run of the season. Brett Taranto went 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and Bobby Erbakan was 3 for 5 with a run scored and one driven in.

Game 3:



And in a game that was another tight contest through the first five innings, the Brewers end up pinning an ugly loss on Charlotte in the rubber match of the series. Jim Atwell pitched well, lasting 7 innings and giving up 1 run on 6 hits for his 6th win of the season. And continuing the trend of Denver starting pitchers helping to provide themselves with runs, Atwell (a collegiate two-way player and pretty decent hitter) went 2 for 2 with a run scored and 2 driven in and even picked up his first big league stolen base, on the back-end of a double steal with speedy Val Guzman. Brandon Veach, recently brought up from AAA, was very good for the final two innings, giving up just a pair of harmless hits. Brett Taranto had been in the midst of a minor slump at the plate earlier in the month but he went 4 for 5 in this one, scoring twice and driving in 2 runs, hit his 6th double of the season, and is now back in a familiar position, at the top of the leader boards in the MGL in batting average at .354. (He has won the last two MGL batting titles.) Backup catcher Kirk Patnode had a big game, going 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and 3 RBI and hitting 2 doubles to get to 3 on the season.


Notes from around the league:



The Los Angeles Spinners chose Kerry Krieg, out of Western Carolina University, in the 2nd round of the 1965 amateur draft and by early 1966 he was the #21 prospect in the WPK. But his career got off to a bit of a slow start and it wasn't until 1973, at the age of 26, that he really solidified himself in the Spinners rotation, going 16-8 with a 2.77 ERA that season. Up to this point, that is his high water mark in wins in a single season though he has been in double digits every season since. Now 32 years of age, the slightly built right-hander profiles as surprisingly durable (the only injury of his career that caused him to miss more than a week of action was a strained shoulder way back in 1967) and is a consistent innings eater. Krieg will likely never be in the discussion of best starting pitchers in the game but with his durability, good stamina, and exemplary work ethic and baseball knowledge, he is a not only a fan favorite but also a pitcher who can probably be counted on for several years to come. And this year he is off to an undefeated start and leads the MGL in wins in the early going.

His team continues to occupy 3rd place in the MGL standings with a 26-16 mark, 4 games behind the twin leaders, Denver and Detroit, who both have impressive 30-12 records. The slumping Brooklyn Aces drop down to just a game over .500 at 21-20 and just barely hold onto 4th place, 8 1/2 games off the pace.

Over in the SJL, not a lot of change. Columbus (28-12) and San Antonio (29-13) continue to battle it out for supremacy with Philadelphia (23-18) and Boston (22-19) just trying to stay close for now (5 1/2 and 6 1/2 out, respectively.)