Ruben "Streak" Souffront and the Denver Brewers

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers are heading back in the right direction again as we enter July, having won 4 in a row, including a 3-game sweep of the Velocity in San Francisco.
In the final game of the series, young Harry Lyerly got his first big league victory and very nearly his first big league shutout. Predictably enough, given that the long ball is his Achilles' heel, he was one out away from the shutout when he gave up a solo HR to the Velocity firstbaseman Al McCullough. Still, with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks, combined with the fact that Lyerly, considered a good hitting pitcher, drove in 2 of the 4 Brewers runs himself (he went 2 for 3), not a bad outing at all for the young fire-baller.

With Phoenix having now lost 3 in a row, the Brewers extend their lead in the MGL to 3 1/2 over both the Speed Devils and Oklahoma City.

[stevem810]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

Something I find myself thinking about today (and this is a post that sort of lives partly outside of the WPK universe and partly within it- just as a warning) is the organizational trends thus far in the short history of the Denver Brewers.

I find myself wondering how much of this has to do with my biases, how much it has to do with my head scout's biases and/or my coaching staff's (up and down the organization) approaches and skills (or lack thereof), how much it has to do with the makeup of the talent in the WPK universe thus far, and how much is just luck.

There has certainly emerged a Brewers type of player (at least in terms of position players) and much of that I think is reflective of my own biases. A Brewers player is defensively gifted and speedy and usually a hard worker and a good teammate. They are often versatile. And they hit a good number of doubles and triples and even the occasional inside-the-park home run. But, by and large, they don't connect for many conventional home runs.

And it seems like even when the Brewers draft a player who seems to have the potential for at least above-average HR power, either that potential proves to be illusory or they just fail to develop at all and they languish in the minors and/or are traded away.

When I'm in front of the game again later tonight I'll be looking at minor league HR totals for my teams and how they compare to the rest of the leagues they play in, curious to see just how systemic this trend is or if my perception of things is skewed.

Not going to say much more about that now but you can expect that I will be revisiting this topic in the future. Time will tell whether there really is an organizational approach at work here or if is just the way the cards have fallen thus far. And, maybe more importantly, time will tell if the team can win with this combination of skills and deficits.

What are the Scout settings? What is the profile of your scout? Will you post him, here?

It's the symmetry of merging your GM preferences with your Scouts analysis, that ramp up the fun of steering the team (for me). I'm guessing a lot of GM's look at it that way. I can't imagine not having Scouts as part of my experience. Ironically, when I first started playing OOTP, I thought they were unnecessary and a waste. My Scouting accuracy for the FBL is 'normal'.

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by stevem810

What are the Scout settings? What is the profile of your scout? Will you post him, here?

It's the symmetry of merging your GM preferences with your Scouts analysis, that ramp up the fun of steering the team (for me). I'm guessing a lot of GM's look at it that way. I can't imagine not having Scouts as part of my experience. Ironically, when I first started playing OOTP, I thought they were unnecessary and a waste. My Scouting accuracy for the FBL is 'normal'.

I had set up this league some time prior to actually getting invested in it and so I couldn't actually even remember what scouting settings I used. But it turns out the WPK also uses normal settings, which would have been my guess.

One area I have largely not focused on is my minor league coaching staff (other than elevating my AAA hitting coach, who has a good reputation, up to the Brewers when I let my poor reputation hitting coach go). I have several times had good intentions to do something about re-organizing and strengthening this part of the organization, but then inevitably get caught up with something else. Interestingly, my hitting coaches at the two top levels of the minors have power as their focus. But the AA hitting coach has a poor reputation and the AAA coach is inexperienced at this point.

Here is my scouting director:

[BirdWatcher]

The final score was closer than it should have been- thanks to a pinch-hit 3-run HR off the bat of rookie Phoenix firstbaseman Devin Schwisow in the top of the 9th inning- but in game one of the three game series against the Speed Devils at Brewers Field, the home town heroes held on to get their 5th straight win, handing Phoenix their 4th straight loss.
The Denver squad flexed some rare power muscles, with three Brewers clubbing solo HR's in the game (Puente, Yurek, and Stephenson).

[BirdWatcher]

Occasionally I find myself going back to look at this post (below) from nearly two years ago, WPK universe time, and find myself wondering how realistic these numbers look now. Basically at the half-way point of the 1969 season, still a few seasons away from the time period I had in mind with these predictions, but thought I'd take a quick look to see how things are matching up so far.
So, the team is a bit better, obviously, at this point as we head into the second half in first place (right now, after taking two of three from Phoenix, the Brewers have a 4 game lead over the nearest competitor, Oklahoma City and 4 1/2 over Phoenix). But what about individual players?
Below I will show the projected stats at the half-way mark (just about) for the 1969 season and see how they line up with my predictions for the future.

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

With a team that is still just fighting to stay around or slightly above .500, you find yourself thinking ahead to the future and daydreaming about what might be.
I often find myself listing out a possible future lineup and estimating, trying to find some balance between what is realistic but also what is possible if things break right, what kind of numbers my players might produce. I've gone back and looked at these later and some, especially for young players with little to no major league experience, were way off. Others, though, are starting to come true (Chad Brown, Ruben Souffront, Antonio Puente, etc.)

This morning I find myself putting together just such a list, thinking about what might be in 5 seasons.
And this is what that list looks like:
1- Tanner Yurek, secondbase: .265-.280 BA, .345-.365 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-23 HR's, 12-24 stolen bases, above average defense."

Yurek is having a bounce-back season in 1969 and his projected numbers for this season line up pretty well with what I predicted above. His slash line would be .274/.384/.444. He projects to hit 14 doubles, 2 triples, 16 HR's and to steal 16 bases (with 8 caught stealing.) Clearly lower on extra base hits, but much better OBP then I predicted.


"2- Chad Brown, shortstop: .315-.330 BA, .345-.370 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-12 triples, 4-8 HR's, 15-25 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."

Brown is not hitting for average as much this year as he has at times in the past and as predicted. His slash line projects to .279/.312/.362. He projects for 23 doubles, 6 triples, 6 HR's, and 25 stolen bases (10 cs.)
Even if he raised the batting average, it looks like I might have been overly-optimistic about his OBP. Then again, he is still young and developing. Pretty close otherwise. And hasn't won a gold glove award yet, but looks like he will in the near future.

"3- Ruben Souffront, rightfield: .320-.340 BA, ..355-.375 OBP, 30-40 doubles, 8-15 triples, 10-22 HR's, 35-70 stolen bases, above average defense."

Ruben projects to have a slash line of .306/.324/.453 this season. So, not too far off and he is still young and improving. He projects to hit 16 doubles, 14 triples, 8 HR's and to steal 47 bases (with 14 caught stealing.) Like many Brewers this year, he isn't hitting as many doubles as I would expect. And it doesn't appear that he is ever going to develop 20+ HR power, but the low end of the range predicted above is certainly within reach.

"4- Antonio Puente, leftfield: .270-.285 BA, .350-.370 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 3-8 triples, 30-45 HR's, 10-15 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."

Puente's projected slash line for 1969 is .248/.407/.435, with 12 doubles, 2 triples, 23 HR's, and 18 stolen bases (with a poor 16 caught stealing.) It is starting to look like Puente will hit for a fairly low average consistently, but his OBP skills are much better than I could have even expected. Whether all of those walks are impacting his HR numbers negatively is another question. Even the pre-season predictions this year had him hitting 36 HR's and he will need to get very hot in the second half to get to that number. As always, great defense though and on pace for 5.1 WAR. Stealing more bases then expected, but with a very poor success rate. Might need to instruct him to not be quite so aggressive.

"5- Bobby Erbakan, firstbase: .300-.330 BA, .355-.375 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-25 HR's, 15-25 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."

Erbakan is still very young and has quite a bit of development potential yet. He has been hitting better lately after going through quite a prolonged slump. His projected slash line is .257/.279/.338. He is projected to hit 18 doubles, 8 triples, 2 HR's, and to steal 2 bases (while being caught 4 times.) As with Souffront, it is looking more and more like Erbakan will never be a power hitter, but he should get a good number of extra-base hits. He is a great fielder, but at this stage his bat and legs are not providing consistent good results.

"6- Jose Careaga, thirdbase: .280-.295 BA, .340-.355 OBP, 15-22 doubles, 1-3 triples, 10-20 HR's, 0-3 stolen bases, above average defense."

Careaga is currently at AAA and doing well enough. He does not look like a top prospect at this point, but our scouting staff still sees him as a future above average thirdbaseman. Time will tell. In the meantime, Jared Stephenson holds down this position. His projected slash line this year: .255/.277/.382. He is projected to hit 14 doubles, 2 triples, 16 HR's and to steal 2 bases (without being caught once.) Like Erbakan, this OBP is pretty horrible. But Stephenson does provide some pop in the lineup and is a very fine defensive thirdbaseman.

"7- Pat Rondeau, centerfield: .295-.320 BA, .330-.350 OBP, 30-45 doubles, 10-15 triples, 2-5 HR's, 30-65 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."

Well, these predictions were made prior to the Brewers signing free agent superstar centerfielder Ryan Rodgers. So let's look at Rodgers first. His slash line projection: .289/.441/.342. He projects to hit 14 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 HR's, while swiping 6 bases (with 2 CS.) Rodgers has been slumping at the plate for the better part of a month and this is a very low batting average for him. But, like Puente, his OBP is world class. I'd like to see a lot more extra-base hits from Rodgers. His defense remains superb.

As for Mr. Rondeau, who backs up at all 3 OF positions: his projected slash line is .300/.326/.396 with 18 doubles, 12 triples, and zero HR's, while stealing 27 bases (being caught trying 14 times.) Fairly on target at this point, with the exception of doubles, which many Brewers are under-achieving on this year, and HR's, which I pretty sure over-shot in the predictions. Great defender.

"8- Sam Rogers, catcher: .245-.265 BA, .345-.360 OBP, 15-22 doubles, 1-3 triples, 5-8 HR's, 0-4 stolen bases, average to slightly above average defense."

Sam is long gone. His replacement, Brett Wood, has had a dismal year and has the worst WAR on the team. Wood projects to hit .154/.222/.204 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 HRs and zero stolen bases (0 attempts.)
Backup catcher Joey Townsend is slightly better: .196/.300/.276, 8 doubles, 0 triples, 4 HR's, O SB (2 CS). Much better OBP and some extra-base power. His WAR projects to 0.2, which is at least much better than Wood's projected -1.1.


"Now obviously a lot can happen and the chances of all of this coming true are slim. Then again, some of these players might develop even better than this and other players might come along that take the place of the players listed above. On the plus side, most of these players are young enough that 5 years down the road they are likely to still be in Brewers uniforms. And two- Puente and Yurek, are already signed to contracts that extend beyond that time frame. Sam Rogers will be 33 five seasons from now, so hard to know how aging will affect him or if he will still be with the team. I am far more confident of the possibility of these projections coming true for the first four slots in the lineup. It is much harder to project yet how Erbakan and Rondeau will develop and Careaga might flame out completely or be far less solid in the big leagues than this. Then again, he might take another step forward and become a star.

The HR numbers are probably a bit overly optimistic, with the hopes that Erbakan and Souffront, to name two, will develop more power as they age. Both are larger men who are expected to make good contact and it isn't totally unreasonable, based also upon current potential ratings, that they at least become average or slightly above average homerun hitters. Some of the stolen base numbers might, if anything, almost be too conservative. As we progress the statistical modifiers of this league will be heading into the mid-70's and early 80's and stolen bases numbers overall should be pretty robust. And with especially Souffront and Rondeau having speed/sb/baserunning ratings that are at the top of the scale, they could put up some real Tim Raines/Ricky Henderson kinds of seasons.
And given current trends and ratings it is probably not unreasonable to expect at least a few of these players- Brown, Puente, Erbakan- to win some gold glove awards.
I also like the balance of this lineup. It contains 2 switch-hitters (Brown and Careaga), 3 lefthanded hitters (Yurek, Puente, Rondeau), and 3 righthanded hitters (Souffront, Erbakan, Rogers.)

Now, pitching, that's another story. Given the current makeup of team and minor league prospects, the bullpen could be quite strong for the foreseeable future. The starting rotation though is another question entirely. And the area most likely to need some infusions from free agency and/or trades.

But I like the looks of the core of this team, at least in terms of position players. And hey, one can always dream, right?

And, interestingly, so far pitching- the area I always feel unsure about- continues to be a strength for the Brewers. Along with our fabulous defense and speed. These predictions were for somewhere around the 1972 season, so still a few years in the future. Likely the team make-up will change quite a bit before then. But mostly I don't feel like I was that far off the mark, especially when it comes to Souffront, Rondeau, Brown, and Yurek.
I just realized I didn't even mention Arturo Baca, who wasn't on the team when I made the predictions above. Baca, playing second and first base, is projected to finish the season with the 5th highest WAR among position players. His projected numbers are .271/.332/.406, 10 doubles, 6 triples, 12 HR's, 8 stolen bases (6 CS). So Baca provides a nice blend of decent power, good speed, and tremendous defense, and likely will have a key role with the Brewers for several years into the future.

But, before we jump too far ahead into the future, there is a second-half of the season to play and a pennant to win.
The Brewers have 5 games up next against the last place Charlotte Sting in Denver. Hopefully they won't look past the Sting, but if they play as they have been the past week or so this could be a nice opportunity to pick up a good number of wins and maybe even stretch out that MGL lead a bit.

[BirdWatcher]

After dropping the first two games of the five game set against last-place Charlotte, young Harry Lyerly takes the mound for the Brewers in game 3, and with quite a bit of help from the offense- especially Jared Stephenson who hit 2 HR's and went 3 for 4 with 6 RBI in the game- Lyerly gets his second major league win. He was far from perfect, giving up 2 HR's and 5 earned runs total, but he also went the distance and struck out 9 batters while walking only 1. All things considered the young flame-thrower continues to show promise.

[BirdWatcher]

Meanwhile, Brewers top position player prospect, Joe McPhillips, continues to be a star in the minor leagues. His latest accomplishment: hitting for the cycle. Particularly impressive is that he saved the hardest- the triple- for last.
Brewers management is also pleased to see that McPhillips is starting to show some real power potential as he gets into double digits in HR's for the first time in his professional career. He also continues to be a doubles machine.

[BirdWatcher]

With the season officially at the half-way point, owner Steve Lester has delivered his annual mid-season report card for me as team GM and manager.
And for once it is largely favorable. Being in first place certainly helps. But also, with Jared Stephenson's recent hot streak, Mr. Lester finally seems content that improvements at that position are promising. All indications, right up until the last few days, were that he was not convinced we had made much of an upgrade at thirdbase, but apparently he is starting to like what he's seeing from Jared.

The key now is to keep things headed in the right direction in the second half.

[BirdWatcher]

It wasn't always pretty, and it certainly wasn't easy, but the Brewers do manage to win the 5- game series against Charlotte 3 games to 2. After having dropped the first 2, and getting the win in game 3 behind the bat of Jared Stephenson and the electric arm of Harry Lyerly, they had to survive a pair of squeakers- 4-3 and 2-1- in a rare Thursday doubleheader to earn the series victory. Steve Alonso goes to 9-4 (2.77 ERA) with the victory in game 1 and lefty Daniel Torres improves to 8-3 (2.69) with an effectively wild performance in the nightcap.

[BirdWatcher]

Another one of the Brewers top position player prospects, secondbaseman Jonathan Koch, making news down at class A Bainbridge. Koch, hitting .320 for the season thus far, had a 5-hit game in which he hit 3 singles and 2 triples, given him an impressive 16 3-baggers for the season.

[BirdWatcher]

Two of the Brewers pitching prospects listed among the Top 100 Prospects of 1969 pitch gems on the same day. Single A Bainbridge starer Eric Johnson (#85 on Top 100 Prospects list) improves to 10-3 on the season with a 6-hit shutout of the Lincoln Whiskeyjacks. At AA Nashville, Justin Peacock (#75 on Top 100 Prospects list) earns his 8th win against 5 losses with a 2-0 win against the Newport News. Peacock allowed 6 hits also, while striking out 7 but also walking 5 batters. While neither Johnson nor Peacock are expected to ever star at the major league level, it is believed that one or both of them could be a useful member of the Brewers in the future at the back-end of the rotation.

[BirdWatcher]

Sometimes it's just not your day.
The Brewers, after holding on for a 4-2 victory in game 1 of a 4-game series against the Baltimore Lords in Denver, the Brewers drop game 2 by a score of 12-0.
The Brewers are nearly no-hit, breaking up the no-no with an infield hit by Chad Brown to lead off the bottom of the 7th inning and the only other Brewer hit was a solid single to center off the bat of Tanner Yurek with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th.
On the other hand, the Brewers allow 5 HR's by the Lords batters.
Next up- a Sunday doubleheader and then the All-Star break. The Brewers need to leave today behind and start fresh tomorrow.

[BirdWatcher]

The final All-Star ballots have been counted and starters named to the two teams. Not surprisingly, with no Brewers players really having standout seasons in spite of the team as a whole playing quite well, no Brewers were named as starters. Shortstop Chad Brown did come in second in the voting, and leftfielder Antonio Puente finished third, at their respective positions.
But neither was named to the team.
The complete rosters have also been announced, and the Brewers will be represented by 3 pitchers: starters Steve Alonso and Daniel Torres and closer Miguel Solis. One position player also made the squad: secondbaseman Tanner Yurek.

For Miguel Solis this is the 4th straight All-Star game. Steve Alonso is an All-Star for the second time (he was an All-Star in 1966). Torres and Yurek will be participating in their first All-Star game.

[BirdWatcher]

I can't for the life of me figure out what is going on with Ryan Rodgers for the last 3 weeks or so.
Rodgers was off to a good, if not great, start to the season, but he is now in a colossal slump and if he doesn't turn it around soon this will almost surely be the worst season of his WPK career.
He is the highest paid player in the WPK. And right now, I don't see where he's worth the 390K a season we are paying him.

[BirdWatcher]

And with the offense sputtering at the moment, the Brewers are fortunate to escape with a split in the 4-game series against Baltimore, thanks largely to another fine start from young Harry Lyerly in the nightcap of the Sunday doubleheader.
Lyerly, now 3-1 on the season, scattered 6 hits over 7 2/3rds innings pitched, striking out 6 while only walking 2, in the 4-2 victory. He did allow an 8th inning HR, the 8th he has allowed now in 48 IP at the WPK level, but with his 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9, he has more than held his own thus far.

[BirdWatcher]

A quick look now at the standings as we enter the All-Star break.
The reigning WPK champion Columbus Whalers have led the SJL pretty much the entire way so far this year and at this stage of the season only the 2-time champs, Jacksonville, have even been able to stay within reasonable reach of them. From the third spot through the eighth spot in the SJL, the teams are all much closer to one another than any of them are to Columbus in the standings.

The Brewers have maintained pretty much the same lead in the MGL for the past several weeks, though the team closest to them has altered a bit. The Los Angeles Spinners, in spite of having lost their two ace starting pitchers earlier in the year, are improbably playing quite well, trailing the Brewers by only 3 games heading into the break. The early season MGL leader, Oklahoma City, has been coming back to the top of late and are 4 games behind in 3rd place. Preseason favorites, Phoenix, have been slumping a bit and now trail Denver by 5 1/2.

[BirdWatcher]

The Moonlight Graham League wins the 1969 All-Star Game, 5-2, with the Shoeless Joe League's superstar leftfielder Travis Johnson (Jacksonville Wolf Pack) being named the MVP in spite of his team's loss.
Denver Brewers' pitcher Daniel Torres pitched one very fine inning (the 2nd)- getting a pair of comebackers which he fielded for easy outs and striking out the third batter he faced. Brewers' pitcher Steve Alonso was less successful in the 4th inning, as after he got the first batter he faced to hit a flyball out, he gave up a HR to the next batter (Travis Johnson) and hit the third batter he faced, Nate Bennett- arguably the best hitter in the the WPK at this point. Bennett charged the mound and he and Alonso tangled leading to a bench-clearing incident, rare for an exhibition game. Both players were ejected, but no word has come down from the league office yet about possible suspensions.
A third Brewers pitcher, closer Miguel Solis, had mixed results. Solis pitched the last 2 innings of the game and allowed 1 run in the 8th, but he worked around a 1-out single and a subsequent error behind him and struck out the last batter of the game to preserve the victory.
Tanner Yurek, meanwhile, walked in both of his plate appearances.

[BirdWatcher]

After being shutout 3-0 in the first of a three game series against their current nearest competitors, the Los Angles Spinners, in L.A., the Brewers get a huge win in game 2, coming from behind twice to get the victory in a 12-inning affair.
Tanner Yurek, who is putting together a really fine comeback year after his disappointing 1968, led the way with a 5 for 6, 1 HR game. The Brewers had 20 hits for the game, and left the bases loaded twice early in the game and shouldn't have had to work quite so hard for this one.
Still, a victory is a good thing, especially on the road against the team working to wrest first place from your grasp.

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers take 2 of 3 from L.A. and stretch out their lead in the MGL to 4 1/2 games over L.A. and Phoenix.
The kid at firstbase, Bobby Erbakan, who was looking over-matched earlier in the season, has been coming around nicely of late, and contributed a 2 for 4 game including hitting a big 2-run HR in the top of the 9th that gave the Brewers some breathing space in what had been a very close contest.

[BirdWatcher]

The second no-hitter of the 1969 WPK season was recorded today. And like the first, it was turned in by an otherwise undistinguished pitcher- Jacksonville's Chris Turner. Not only is Turner not considered a terribly good pitcher, he also has a reputation as a divisive teammate and is far from well-liked. Still, for one day at least, he was at the top of his game and deserves a hats off for that. We can go back to despising him tomorrow.