The Denver Brewers of the W.P. Kinsella League

[BirdWatcher]

The Baltimore Lords signed international free agent Chia-Ch'ing Chou out of Taiwan in the Autumn of 1975 and the left-handed power hitting left-fielder provided them with decent value in the 1976 season. But nothing like his fellow country-man Xiao-mei Mah has delivered for the Philadelphia Mud Hens since being signed the year before.



Then again who could have predicted the hit the power game took last year, with Chou's rather modest 18 homers actually being near the top of the league leader boards. (Jesus Hernandez was the only WPK player to even hit 20.) With the power game back in full force in 1977, Chou is off to a terrific start. He is second in the MGL in batting average at .402 (trailing only Bobby Erbakan- .447- in the MGL and Mah- .404- overall.) And while his 11 home runs puts him 3rd overall in the MGL it also puts him on pace for an impressive 47 season total. Chou won't win any Gold Gloves but he does have an abnormally strong arm for a left fielder. And with a very advanced eye at the plate he has a phenomenal .519 OBP thus far.

The likable Chou may still be in the shadow of Xiao-mei Mah among Taiwanese players in the WPK, but he is certainly making a name for himself in this his second season in the American game and is helping the Baltimore Lords to a strong early start and a place among the contenders in the MGL.

[BirdWatcher]

Nice week for Joe:

[BirdWatcher]

Larry Hart has been the manager of the Washington Night Train since the team's inception and has led them to six SJL pennants and two WPK championships during that time. And this year, after two mildly disappointing seasons in which the Night Train won 89 and 83 games respectively, he has skippered his club to a great start and they sit atop the SJL once again.




And yet, even with his storied history and fine reputation around the league and in spite of success this season, he seems to be losing the support of his players. It might not be helping Hart that the team lacks good leadership among the players and is devoid of a true captain and in that absence the talented and outspoken, but, if rumors are to be believed, not terribly bright, catcher Dan Reaves has emerged as the de facto spokesman for the players.



Will this reported dissension put at risk the team's push for the pennant? Only time will tell.

[BirdWatcher]

The Oklahoma City Diamond Kings are off to a fine start in 1977 and are currently battling with the Brewers for 1st place in the MGL.
But they got some bad news a few days ago when they found out that starting pitcher/shortstop Danny McGrath will miss likely at least 4 months of play following surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow.



McGrath is just 24 years old and in his second season with the big league club and while he hasn't yet emerged as a premium starting pitcher (though he possesses an excellent changeup and good movement) he is already perhaps the best hitter on the club and a fine defensive shortstop who can turn a double play with the best of them. He has been plagued with a series of rather minor injuries in his professional career and this latest likely raises questions about whether it might be better that he transition to an infielder solely and not risk further arm injuries by pitching, thus taking his potent bat out of the lineup. (He could also be a decent left fielder.)

[BirdWatcher]

At age 30, Denver Brewers second baseman Bobby Erbakan is off to one of the finest starts of his career both at the plate and in the field.

Yesterday Erbakan pushed his current consecutive game hit streak to 25 games, the longest of his career.

[pauwoo]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

At age 30, Denver Brewers second baseman Bobby Erbakan is off to one of the finest starts of his career both at the plate and in the field.

It looks like he might set a personal record for dingers too.

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by pauwoo

It looks like he might set a personal record for dingers too.

Hey Pauwoo- good to see you again!

Yes, although it should be noted that it's a pretty good year for dingers in the league in general.

And then there is also that thing that I keep trying not to bring up that hovers in the background, that little nagging note of caution. (Fragile.)

[BirdWatcher]

Brewers record: 3-4 (week), 31-14, 1st place, MGL (season)

May 22, at Los Angeles: 2-1.

May 23-25, versus San Francisco: 5-12, 8-9, 2-4.

May 26-28, at Oklahoma City: 2-8, 3-1, 9-3.

The Brewers began the week by wrapping up a 3-game sweep of the Spinners in L.A. with a 12-inning squeaker in a pitching duel between Denver's Sekien Hamasaki (7 IP, 1 ER, 4 HA, 5 K, 1 BB) and L.A.'s veteran righty Jason Wilson (6 IP, 1 ER, 6 HA, O K, O BB). The respective bullpens were also very sharp and it took a 2-out run-scoring triple from the Brewer's speedy young outfielder Val Guzman to break the tie. Tim Shore (3-1, 3.21) earned the win with 2 innings pitched in relief and Cheol-han Lee finished things out for his first career save.

Having won 6 straight the Brewers returned home to take on the not very scary San Francisco Velocity. And this isn't how this story is supposed to end, the Brewers being swept by the visitors fairly handily.
Game 1 saw the Brewers battle back to within 2 runs going into the 9th inning only to give up 5 runs in the top of the frame. Matt Helm (2-1, 3.57) took the loss, allowing 7 runs on 9 hits over 7 2/3rds innings. Josh Schaeffer hit his 5th homer of the season and Joe McPhillips went 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and hit his 7th double in the loss.
The Brewers battled back late again in game 2, scoring 5 runs in the final 3 innings to get to an 8-8 tie. But veteran slugger Nick Stier hit a pinch-hit homer in the top of the 10th and the Velocity held on for the win. Erik Sloan made his first start of the season after returning from injury and a rehab assignment and looked good early but then saw things fall apart as he gave up 8 runs on 11 hits over 5 1/3rd innings pitched. Cory Degano, recently brought up from AAA as the Brewers cycle relievers up and down from Chester during a long stretch of games without a break, took the loss when he allowed the game-winning shot. Bobby Erbakan hit his 8th homer of the season and Zacarias Martell his 3rd while going 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and 4 RBI.
In game 3, Sadahige Kawasaki (6-3, 2.03), was saddled with the loss, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits over 8 innings and getting little run support. Bobby Erbakan went 2 for 4 and hit his 10th double of the season in the loss.

With the three losses to San Francisco, the Brewers headed to Oklahoma City with just a 1 game lead over the Diamond Kings.
And in game 1 the Diamond Kings drew even with the Brewers with a convincing 8-2 win. Steve Green (4-1, 4.52) took the loss, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits over 6 innings. Right fielder Josh Schaeffer went 2 for 3 with 2 walks in the game but had to leave the game after hitting a single in his final at-bat in the 9th inning and was placed on the 10-day IL as a precaution after the game as it was found he was suffering from knee tendinitis. (Casey Bromwell, who the Brewers acquired in a trade with Seattle earlier this Spring, was called up for his first taste of the WPK to take Schaeffer's place.)


Having now lost 4 straight, the Brewers got a tremendous effort from Sekien Hamasaki (6-0, 2.84) in the middle game. He was matched up against the Diamond Kings ace starter Dan Knauff (7-1, 2.07), who suffers his first loss of the season. Hamasaki went the distance, losing the shutout when he allowed a solo homer off the bat of veteran outfielder Bill Ramiro in the 9th, but scattering just 6 hits while striking out 7 and walking 2. Young Jon Williams, starting in right field in place of the injured Josh Schaeffer, went 2 for 3 with 2 runs scored, 2 RBI, and hit his 3rd homer of the season. Williams led off while another rookie outfielder, Val Guzman hit in the two hole and went 2 for 4. The kids are playing well!

And in the rubber match and final game of the week the Brewers bats exploded, including a 6-run 4th inning, as they won the series against Oklahoma City and extended their lead over the Diamond Kings to 2 games once again. Matt Helm (3-1, 3.57) got the win, giving up just 3 runs on 14 hits over 7 2/3rds innings. (Oklahoma City scored all 3 runs in the 8th when they got to Helm for 2 home runs.) Jon Williams impressed again, going 3 for 5 and hitting his 1st triple of the season. And Bobby Erbakan went 2 for 4 with 3 RBI, hit his 12th double, and stretched his hitting streak to 26 games.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



On Saturday, two teams in the middle of the SJL standings and fighting to not fall out of contention when the Milwaukee Cadets hosted the Jacksonville Wolf Pack. The teams battled to a scoreless tie until the bottom of the 9th when the Cadets 29-year old second baseman Rob Bello, who earlier in the week had a 5-hit game against Philadelphia, came in to pinch-hit and tripled the first pitch he saw from Jacksonville starter Juan Maldonado on the ground down the first base line. The very next batter, Sun-min Yi, the aw shucks kid from Indian Hills, Nevada known more for his great defense in right field (2 gold gloves the past 2 seasons) than his bat hit a line drive single through the right side of the infield to plate Bello with the walk-off run. For the left-handed starter Maldonado it was the second superb performance of the week though this one ended in heartbreak. The big lefty out of the Dominican Republic led the league with 20 wins and 179 strikeouts in 1974 but in spite of fine pitching since has hovered near .500 due to a lack of support from his team and is seeing more of the same in 1977.




MGL:



At the beginning of the week two of the more surprising teams in the early going in the MGL- the Portland Wild Things and the Oklahoma City Diamond Kings- squared off in Oklahoma City. The Diamond Kings held on in a wild one, having scored 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th to take a commanding 9-1 lead only to see Portland plate 5 in the top of the 9th to put fear into the partisan crowd. Dan Knauff got the win for the Diamond Kings to remain perfect thus far (he would later in the week finally suffer his first loss at the hands of the Brewers) and Ben Bakeman continues his emergence as one of the best young closers in the game.

[BirdWatcher]

It's hard to get much attention as a closer in the WPK when you pitch in the same era as the great Jamel McNeil.
But let's give some love to 35-year old Washington closer Isaiah Scott, who added 3 more saves to his season total this past week. Scott, who has pitched for the Night Train for his entire career (a rarity for a relief pitcher) since being selected by the club in the WPK inaugural draft, has led the SJL in saves the past 2 seasons and is on pace currently for 41 saves this season, which would be by far the best season total in his career.




Scott is also the anti-McNeil in that he is extremely well-liked, a real fan-favorite in fact, not only because of his on-field hustle but also his community charity work and his friendliness with fans. Unlike McNeil, Scott's path will not lead him to enshrinement in the WPK Hall of Fame in Dubuque, but at 8th in career saves and still going strong he will finish with an impressive career and will likely long be a hero in the nation's capital.

He's one of the good guys and deserves his moment in the spotlight!

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



Left-hander Sandy Morales was originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Milwaukee Cadets way back in February of 1968. Although never being considered a top prospect he quietly worked his way up the farm system, generally with strong results. In March of 1975 the Cadets traded him to Houston for two other minor league players of modest potential. For a not very young borderline prospect like Morales it can actually be a godsend to get traded to an expansion club, especially one that plays its home games in a strong pitcher's park.
And sure enough, Morales is off to a great start in this his rookie season and had a tremendous month of May. Given that the longball is seeing a resurgence this year and Morales is thought to be prone to giving them up (though he's been very stingy in that regard thus far) there is every chance he won't be able to maintain this level of excellence. (His BABIP- .246- is also a strong indicator of this.)




MGL:



It is no surprise that Oklahoma City's Dan Knauff- who has been the best pitcher in the MGL thus far with the possible exception of Denver's Sadahige Kawasaki- earned Pitcher of the Month honors for May.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



The Seattle Alligators 30-year old right fielder Kyle Doss has quietly and diligently going about the business of a being a big league ball player for over 7 years now with few accolades. He is a 2-time All-Star and did win a Silver Slugger award in 1972 but this is the first time he has won the Batter of the Month award. Doss will never be mistaken for a superstar, but having led the league in walks once and OBP twice and with a 162-game average of 4.0 WAR, he is a valuable commodity. And at least for May of 1977 he gets a bit of the attention he deserves.

MGL:



Chia-ch'ing Chou's marvelous season continues and nets him the May honors as Player of the Month in the MGL.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



After the month he had, of course Houston's rookie lefty starter Sandy Morales also nets Rookie of the Month honors in the SJL.

MLG:



When you are a fan of the Detroit Falcons there are few things to get excited about. But this month rookie shortstop Blake Brock proved to be one bright spot on an otherwise dismal team. In winning the monthly best rookie honor, he showed a bit more offensive punch then is expected of him, while also displaying great speed and excellent defense at this key position. There are some whispers that his focus might not be there (and some even call him downright lazy) but there is no doubt that his talent will be one of the factors the Falcons will rely on as they work to rebuild.

[BirdWatcher]

Bobby Erbakan has now reached 30 straight games with at least one hit.
Erbakan has recorded the longest hitting streak in Brewer's team history and is tied for the second longest streak in league history, behind Nick Haran who hit in 34 straight games as a member of the Phoenix Speed Devils in 1969. (Erbakan is tied with Boston star third baseman Kasey O'Neil who hit in 30 straight in 1975.)

[BirdWatcher]

So for the small handful of you who have long followed the WPK you likely have seen earlier posts by me regarding Hall of Fame credentials and the various tools Bill James created years ago to explore this topic.

Today I'd like to briefly revisit his similarity scores tool in the context of the WPK. And in particular as it relates to retired WPK starting pitcher Chris Hernandez.

(Now there are many caveats I could offer here about the lack of any significant history in the WPK yet, about the antiquated nature of the metrics James used for this tool- given that he created this pre-internet and wanted to use stats the average baseball fan had access to in the baseball encyclopedias of the time, etc. But I'm going to dispense with most of that. Feel free to ask questions if you desire.)

First, let's take a quick look at Chris Hernandez. Hernandez was the second player chosen overall in the WPK Inaugural Draft. (The first was Andy "Lemonhead" Wilson, who will likely be the topic of a similar post in the near future.) He was already 29 years old when the first season of the WPK was played and therefore got a late start on his WPK career, which lasted to age 38. He was the 1971 SJL Pitcher of the Year, a season in which he led the league in ERA at 2.02 and a season that was sandwiched by 19 and 21 win seasons. He was a 6-time All Star and has one championship ring. Hernandez was a fan favorite and one of the hardest workers in the game. The big righty might have kept going a bit longer but he suffered a torn UCL in July of 1975 and it turned out to be a career ending injury.




Hernandez dwells in that strata of WPK pitchers of his generation just below the big 2, Jake Harris and Cheol-han Lee, who are likely if not sure Hall of Famers. Given his advanced age when the league began Hernandez didn't have time to put up the counting numbers one might expect of a Hall of Famer. His 51.4 JAWS and 69.7 WAR figures are a bit below what is average for an MLB starting pitcher in the HOF. His Black Ink and Gray Ink totals are in line with MLB HOF's while his HOF Monitor and Standards scores would indicate he is a borderline candidate.

All of which makes him in some ways an ideal example of the value of Similarity Scores and the Keltner list.
One of the lessons of James' Similarity Scores tool is that the best players are the least likely to have strong similarity scores with other players. Greatness, while not unique, is rare by definition. In Hernandez case there isn't a lot of history in the WPK to compare him to. When you run the numbers against the big 2, who are still active but very much on the wane, Hernandez scores 835.94 against the lefty Harris and a somewhat better 865.72 against fellow righty Lee. By James definitions that would put him somewhere between somewhat similar and essentially similar to Harris and solidly into the essentially similar range with Lee.
When we look at how Hernandez compares to the 9 other most significant starting pitchers (by JAWS score) who have retired from the WPK (Art McMartin, Daniel Torres, Juan Soto, Mike Sayers, Manny Carvajal, Jose Foskey, David Herrera, Ricky Diaz, and Miguel Chavez), his highest similarity score is with Jose Foskey at 867.64. Next is the largely unheralded David Herrera at 866.59.
Of the 10 most significant retired starting pitchers in WPK history thus far, Hernandez by far stands out as the least similar to the others. He is the only one who doesn't have at least one fellow pitcher in the list who scores at least a 900 (truly similar in James words) similarity score. And to a certain extent this actually favors his HOF argument a bit. His strong similarity to Lee also helps.

But how does he compare to a much broader base that we could look at, namely the MLB.

Let me state here that I created a few rudimentary tools to help me automate this tool a bit but I am no tech wiz and this is slow going and by no means a thorough approach and counts on me to first eyeball the most obvious candidates for comparison.

But having said that, the best similarities I can find for Hernandez in MLB history are as follows:
Eddie Lopat- 924.98
Roy Oswalt- 912.72
Dennis Leonard- 910.68
Don Newcombe- 901.81
Ron Guidry- 897.42
Schoolboy Rowe- 894.09
Dizzy Dean- 892.44

Some solid pitchers there, a few near HOF'ers, and one HOF'er who many believe doesn't really belong in the Hall but had a bigger than life presence (Dean.)

When we compare Hernandez to some MLB HOF'ers with a similar number of wins and innings pitched,etc, we get scores like this:

Roy Halladay- 848.06
Lefty Gomez- 846.79
Addie Joss- 846.08
Bob Lemon- 808.04
Pedro Martinez- 784.77
Catfish Hunter- 759.62
Whitey Ford- 741.63

So these scores range from just below the essentially similar range to below the vaguely similar range.
Not great evidence for Hernandez there.

I like Chris Hernandez. I would have loved to see what his career might have been like if he had started in the WPK at age 22 to 25 instead of 29. I think he should make it through several ballots of HOF voting and will be disappointed if he doesn't.
I won't go into the Keltner list right now (having taken too much of your time already) but suffice it to say that he scores pretty well but again not a slam dunk with that tool as well.

I don't think Chris Hernandez will be enshrined in the WPK Hall of Fame in Dubuque, Iowa. But he certainly will be one of the first great tests for the voters.

[BirdWatcher]

31 and counting....

[BirdWatcher]

Former Brewer favorite, and 1970 MGL Pitcher of the Year, Harry Lyerly is having a tremendous season with the Jacksonville AAA farm club Louisville. Hopefully Harry will get a promotion back to the show again sometime soon.

[BirdWatcher]

After a pair of unimpressive at-bats early in the game which resulted in Bobby Erbakan being safe at first on an error by the shortstop in the first inning and a routine fly out to left field to lead off the 4th, Bobby got really got a hold of one in the 6th with 2 outs and Brett Taranto on first and his 9th homer of the year extended his hitting streak to 32 games, 2 shy of a tie for the all-time longest in WPK history.

[BirdWatcher]

Brewers record: 3-3 (week), 34-17, 1st place, MGL (season)

May 29-31, versus Brooklyn: 7-3, 2-3, 4-9.

June 2-4, at Detroit: 3-1, 6-5, 4-5.

The Brewers closed out the month of May with 3 games against the disappointing Brooklyn Aces in Denver. The home club took game 1 largely thanks to center fielder Joe McPhillips, who went 2 for 4 with 4 RBI and hit a pair of doubles to get to 9 on the season. Val Guzman hit his 3rd homer, scored 2 runs and drove in 2 as well. John Weaver got the start and allowed 3 runs on 8 hits over 6 innings pitched but did not get a decision. Veteran left-handed reliever Ivan Cruz (1-0, 3.52) got the win.
Sadahige Kawasaki (6-4, 2.19) took the loss in game 2, giving up 3 runs on 8 hits over 7 IP. Joe McPhillips hit his 5th HR of the season in the loss.
And the Aces take the series when they get to Cheol-han Lee (1-4, 10.86), who came in to relieve Erik Sloan with the game tied 4-4 in the 7th inning and failed to record an out while giving up 2 runs on 3 hits. Brett Taranto hit his 2nd homer of the season in the loss.

After a day off the Brewers headed to Detroit for 3-games to end the week.
And in the first game, they get a wonderful start from Steve Green (5-1, 4.14) who lasts 8 innings, giving up 1 run on 7 hits. Tim Shore picks up his 8th save. Jon Williams, the cannon-armed 24-year old backup right fielder for the Brewers, threw out two Falcons runners on the base paths, to help slow down the Detroit offense.
In game 2, Sekien Hamasaki (7-0, 3.25) wasn't at his best- giving up 5 runs on 8 hits over 6 innings- but he got the win and remains undefeated in 1977. The first two hitters in the lineup certainly helped matters, as Brett Taranto and Rich White combined to go 4 for 9 with 4 runs scored and 2 RBI, with both of Taranto's hits being doubles to get him to 8 on the season in that category. Tim Shore pitched a flawless 9th for his 9th save.
It took 13 innings but Detroit managed to avoid getting swept with a walk-off win which was fueled by rookie shortstop Blake Brock picking up a 1-out single, stealing 2nd base and going to third on a rare throwing error by Kirk Patnode, and then scoring the winning run on a single through the hole on the right side of the infield. John Weaver (3-3, 3.28) took the loss. Bobby Erbakan hit his 9th homer of the season in the loss and little Joe Willemse, who has struggled at the plate this season (.247/.278/.258), was 3 for 6.

[BirdWatcher]

SJL:



The back-to-back reigning WPK champs, the Columbus Whalers, have been playing well and have very nearly caught the Washington Night Train at the top of the SJL standings. In their 4-1 win over El Paso on Monday of this past week it was once again their Ace, Jim Norris, in the spotlight. Norris, the 1976 SJL Pitcher of the Year, improved to 6-3 with a 1.65 ERA as he went the distance for the victory. He was supported well by the normally light-hitting, good defense, speedster shortstop Sam Sullivan, who went 5 for 5 in this one, swiping his 11th bag of the season (though also being caught stealing twice in this one.)





MGL:



Obandomania is back in L.A.! It's probably appropriate that the game of the week in the MGL featured the other 1976 Pitcher of the Year award winner, the Spinners ace Eduardo Obando. After starting the season on the IL due to bone chips in his elbow, Obando had a very successful rehab stint in AAA and now is 3-0 with a 2.09 ERA in his first 5 starts at the big league level this year. He is helping to propel the Spinners as they battle the Diamond Kings for 2nd place in the MGL with both teams chasing the Brewers for league supremacy.