"Actual" value of a regular pack?

[ronhatch]

Originally Posted by allenciox

I would argue that standard packs are worth considerably more in PT21 than in PT20. The reason? The Live missions. Since 70% of cards drawn are live, in PT20 most of these were just quicksell value. Now almost all bronze and silver live cards have a very significant premium associated with them above the quick-sell value. In fact, it has gotten to the point that a live bronze or silver card is worth more on average than the average non-live card.

If you are willing to put in the time to put all these cards up for auction, and put no premium on the considerable time required to do so, then a standard pack might be worth > 1000 PP on average.

Live silvers in particular have a very high premium in most cases... likely due in large part to the lack of a "Silver Pack". For many teams, if you want to complete the missions, your only alternative to buying those silvers at inflated prices is to pick up the golds instead... which of course have a minimum price associated. So in many cases, 900PP is seen as a "bargain" of sorts.

Edit: Still, except in very rare cases they go for less than the cost of the golds you could get instead... which happens to be at a minimum equal to the value of buying a pack. So while those cards are a nice bump to the average value, you certainly don't expect to see them in every pack and you still need to pull one of the extremely valuable cards to really get value out of it. (Like when I got a perfect Sandy Koufax last week and funded all my remaining live missions with the sale.)

[ronhatch]

Originally Posted by allenciox

[...] Since 70% of cards drawn are live [...]

By the way... I've heard that number before from other sources... how sure is everyone that it's a 70/30 split and where did that information come from?


I've been tracking every pack I open from day one, and I'm currently at 18.28% historical out of 145 packs. I mean... it's possible I've just been unlucky, but that seems like some pretty extreme bad luck if it's really supposed to be 30%. It's a difference of just under 100 cards. I'd find it much more plausible if 21 has the rate set to 20%. But are other people tracking it and getting different results?

[RoteLaterne]

I must be unlucky as well, 83% live, 17% historical.

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by mcdog512

Until you F up and quick sell a valuable card. I do agree too many clicks though.

Originally Posted by dkgo

Maybe give an "are you sure" warning if the card is at least a diamond. But for every silver it is really annoying.

And there is absolutely no good reason to have a post-sale confirmation popup that you have to acknowledge with a click after you already confirmed that you do want to sell the card you clicked to sell.

Originally Posted by professor ape

As a F2P player who gets a steady stream of duplicate players through the packs I earn in tournaments, I have no issue with the 3-click Quick Sell. I appreciate the safety valve so I don’t make a stupid mistake.

I don't necessarily love how many clicks it takes myself, but this is a super hard thing to balance, and it's better to err on the side of caution/safety imo.

You guys would probably be shocked to see how many folks come to us about valuable cards they accidentally quick sold, even with the multiple warnings.

If it was possible to quick-sell with one click, I shudder to think how many mistakes would happen.

[dkgo]

Are you guys counting all cards or just certain rarities? irons are obviously way way more skewed to live than 70/30

[dkgo]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

I don't necessarily love how many clicks it takes myself, but this is a super hard thing to balance, and it's better to err on the side of caution/safety imo.

You guys would probably be shocked to see how many folks come to us about valuable cards they accidentally quick sold, even with the multiple warnings.

If it was possible to quick-sell with one click, I shudder to think how many mistakes would happen.

I get it, but is the second pop up that simply confirms your card was sold necessary?

[Lukas Berger]

Originally Posted by dkgo

I get it, but is the second pop up that simply confirms your card was sold necessary?

Yeah, I personally could do without that one.

[Spieler]

Originally Posted by Lukas Berger

Yeah, I personally could do without that one.

Maybe some sort of message bar at the bottom of the UI. Like a SAPgui.

Can't believe I just said that.

[Janks]

Originally Posted by Spieler

Maybe some sort of message bar at the bottom of the UI. Like a SAPgui.

Can't believe I just said that.

Make it a type I

[Matt Arnold]

Originally Posted by dkgo

Are you guys counting all cards or just certain rarities? irons are obviously way way more skewed to live than 70/30

Yeah, I believe it's 70/30 for bronze and above, but Irons do not follow the same ratios, so if someone is counting all cards, then the overall ratio would certainly be lower.

[abangs]

Any idea of the value of a historical or diamond pack?

[bailey]

Originally Posted by abangs

Any idea of the value of a historical or diamond pack?

Less than the value of the same points spent on regular packs.

[ronhatch]

Originally Posted by abangs

Any idea of the value of a historical or diamond pack?

Based only on the 30% drop rate, a historical pack is worth roughly 10/3rds of a pack that can have live cards in it... the value is then skewed upwards some by the fact that irons are going to be less common in them. So as has been said already, overpriced. Very nice to get as rewards, though.


FWIW, after re-jiggering my spreadsheet to calculate historical drops for bronze and up separately from the iron historicals, I'm seeing just over 25% historical after 170 packs opened... still bad luck, but plausible as a deviation from 30%. Not quite at 14% on the irons.

[benderguy1]

With the FOTF missions and the explosion of prices on Irons and Bronze historical cards on the AH, along with the price of a standard pack remaining constant -- what is the current value of a pack now?

[dkgo]

The odds haven't change. Make your best guess of the actual average selling price at each rarity and do the math...

[bailey]

Originally Posted by benderguy1

With the FOTF missions and the explosion of prices on Irons and Bronze historical cards on the AH, along with the price of a standard pack remaining constant -- what is the current value of a pack now?

1027.34 points per pack, however, it is very high variance so that unless you are prepared to open a minimum of 23,738 packs you will more than likely go broke and end up with nothing of value.

[smales72]

Originally Posted by bailey

1027.34 points per pack, however, it is very high variance so that unless you are prepared to open a minimum of 23,738 packs you will more than likely go broke and end up with nothing of value.

Lol. I like this and commend you on the research. I believe it.

With the state of the AH and the top heavy nature of the game, for someone just playing and not investing it seems like theme team or the highway. Goo d luck replacing all those SE cards with competing cards on the AH.

[lindholmes]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

Yeah, I believe it's 70/30 for bronze and above, but Irons do not follow the same ratios, so if someone is counting all cards, then the overall ratio would certainly be lower.

I've been tracking all my gold and regular packs for the last couple months, and the historical percentage on Perfect/Diamond is too small a sample size, but I've got 34% historical on golds (a little lucky), 30% on silver and bronze, and 14% on iron. Combined with a little bad luck on Perfect (1 live, 0 historical) and Diamond (15/4, 21% historical), I'm at 21% historical overall, but exactly 30% for bronze and above.

So to recap, what Matt said is confirmed for me.

[Bunktown Ballers]

Originally Posted by TecatePete

Has anyone tracked the numbers to see what the average re-sale value of a pack is? I know it's basically a given that it's a loss to buy packs, but I'm curious just how much. My gut would say somewhere around 500-600 pp in value, but I could be way off. I'd be curious about the Gold Packs too if anyone has done all this

Zero...I will never acquire a regualr pack with real money...When I spend money it's on PT Points only

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by bailey

1027.34 points per pack, however, it is very high variance so that unless you are prepared to open a minimum of 23,738 packs you will more than likely go broke and end up with nothing of value.

That's neat, but will I live long enough to open 23,738 packs and orderly auction off the contents with value with the 50-auction limit in place?

Packs right now are definitely more than they ever were, which is why the Critters turn every dime into another lottery ticket...