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05-27-2021, 02:04 AM
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#41 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Deal Mike Ford to Detroit
December 3, 2022
    And we're off! I mentioned in the one of the preview posts that Mike Ford was an awkward fit on an Anthony Rizzo-occupied roster as a left-handed hitting DH with poor defensive skills and a lack of on-base prowess. The power is very real (.236 ISO), but with right-handed 1B/DH Luken Baker at AAA and Cristian Santana (last two months in the bigs) also on the 40-man, it didn't make sense to keep Ford around for another season. Fortunately, we found a team who certainly avail themselves of his services. Detroit endured yet another brutal season and will (again) have the number one pick in the 2023 Draft. They're also in financial hell ($48.6M payroll) and badly need cost-controlled players, which Ford provides as a pre-arb player making the veteran minimum. I checked the Tigers' roster the day following the trade and noted that they had immediately plugged him into the clean-up spot in their standard lineup against RHP. He should be a mainstay in Detroit for the next several seasons. In dealing Ford, we acquired two of Detroit's three most expensive players. JaCoby Jones ($6.8M) is in his final arb year and is a mercurial talent who was on career-high paces in every offensive category prior to multiple extended injury stints in 2022. He's had difficulty staying healthy throughout his career, but the on-field product can at times be jaw-dropping. He's an excellent fit for us in CF (60 grade, 65 range) and as a thumper towards the bottom of the lineup. He'll push out one of the younger outfield guys (for now) but offers power upside well in excess of Barrera and Herron. Bryan Garcia ($4.3M, second Arb year) became an expensive luxury for a cellar-dwelling team after saving 25 games and blowing away hitters with a 2.21 FIP over 49 appearances. He brings 60-grade stuff and 50-grade movement and control with three "plus-plus" pitches. A 2.1 WAR in just 49 appearances on an atrocious team is wildly impressive, and he'll slot (somewhere) into the back end of our bullpen as a high-leverage and setup option with a chance to usurp Corey Knebel as the annointed closer. We're potentially up against it a bit payroll-wise if we make a big free agency acquisition, and Detroit was gracious enough to eat a combined $2.9M between the Garcia and Jones contracts. Last edited by JAF373; 05-27-2021 at 03:04 AM. |
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05-27-2021, 03:49 AM
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#42 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 13,615
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Smooth moves there podna. Jones looks just the OF banger you were after.
__________________
HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS CUSTOM SAVES ECLIPSE LEAGUE MOON SHOT LEAGUE EVERYMAN LEAGUE LGB USBA |
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05-27-2021, 08:00 PM
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#43 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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2023 Preseason Preview
February 1, 2023
Alright, we're on the eve of the "official" start of the pre-season calendar. It's been a busy two months and I'll go in chronological order following the Mike Ford trade discussed at-length in the previous post. December 6, 2022: Placed SS Jeison Guzman on the 40-Man Roster -A predictable procedural move in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, Guzman is currently fourth on my organizational middle infield depth chart behind Hoerner, Polanco, and Amaya, all of whom - barring injury - will open on the big league roster with Guzman reporting to Iowa. He's clearly the best defensive infielder in the upper levels of the system and will form a strong double-play tandem with Grae Kessinger in AAA.  December 7, 2022: Designated OF Nick Martini for Assignment -Minor league free agency tends to be overlooked, but I really wanted Martini back as organizational depth. He posted 3.5 and 2.6 WAR seasons, respectively, in AAA in 2021 and 2022 and is an on-base machine (better than .400 OBP in both seasons). I thought someone might claim him, but he slipped through waivers and is back at Iowa near the top of our deep outfield mix. December 8, 2022: Traded RHP Rogelio Armenteros to Baltimore for $1.2M Cash -For reasons beyond my comprehension, several teams inquired about Armenteros, a 28-year old starter at AA Tennessee with a 30 grade. Perhaps they were drawn to his 60-grade stamina, but with a cash crunch looming, I was happy to ship him to pitcher-needy Baltimore to create a bit of financial wiggle room. He tossed 111 innings at AA Tennessee last season, posting a 5.40 ERA (6.00 FIP) with a 20.9% K rate and 8.6% BB rate. Baltimore is likewise using him as a starter at AA to open 2023.  December 20, 2022: Acquired C Ben Rortvedt from Minnesota for LHP Raul Alcantara and RHP Wilfri Figuereo   -Another small potatoes move that shores up depth, I've long-coveted Rortvedt as an average catcher with an above-average bat. Minnesota is loaded behind the dish with Mitch Garver ($7.2M salary) and well-regarded Ryan Jeffers, as well as versatile Willians Astudillo. Rortvedt scores high grades in leadership and work ethic and gives us some big league ready catching insurance behind Willson Contreras and Payton Henry. Rortvedt is clearly ahead of Henry offensively, but I prefer the latter's defensive prowess behind Contreras. Rortvedt will open the season with veteran Tony Wolters at Iowa, and we added him to the 40-man instead of Wolters to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. Alcantara, 21, is just outside of Minnesota's top 30 prospects as a 35+ southpaw with fringy stuff. Our lower minors pitching depth is fairly strong and we can occasionally deal from it without worry. Figuereo is a 20-grade potential and pure organizational filler. December 27, 2022: Selected RHP Mason Fox in the Rule 5 Draft from San Diego   -Our bullpen was in decent shape following the Bryan Garcia addition, but I wanted another high-stuff guy towards the back end to team with Burl Carraway and Jordan Romano. Fox, 26, has never pitched in the Majors and was blocked by San Diego's stable of bullpen arms. He's only a 2-pitch guy, but the fastball (65) and curveball (75) work quite well in tandem. Over 21 innings at AA San Antonio last season, he struck out 35% of batters and walked just 2.5%. These types of relievers tend to be prone to significant variance, but the upside is so tantalizing. He's currently the 32nd-ranked prospect in the organization. January 1, 2023: Claimed RHP Cory Abbott off Waivers from LA Dodgers   Welcome back, old friend. Abbott, 27, was a top 15 prospect in our system when we dealt him to the Dodgers in June 2021 in exchange for Cristian Santana and since-departed Andre Jackson. He's mainly pitched at AAA since then with the exception of a difficult 11-inning stint in LA late in 2021. He's a 4-pitch innings eater with above-average strikeout rates but the typical homer issues that tend to accompany strike throwers who don't have overwhelming stuff. He's a 40/45 type who will hopefully give us quality innings at Iowa and will be perhaps the first starter promoted to the bigs as an injury replacement. Fortunately, we didn't have to add him to the 40-man as he was on a minor league contract with the Dodgers and still has two remaining options. January 10, 2023: Signed LHP Clayton Kershaw to a 2-year, $33.2M Contract   -The Man himself is Chicago-bound. As expected, Kershaw did not re-sign with LA and ended a remarkable 13-year run in which he won three Cy Youngs and two championships. With Jacob DeGrom and Kevin Gausman signing in LA, the Dodgers couldn't afford to bring him back. Boston and Philly were in on Kershaw as well, though he accepted a deal from us a touch below his $38M demand. He's still a 70 overall, though the strikeouts continue to slowly dip (22.9% last year) with the customary elite control (4.8% walk rate). Of course, he also has a well-earned reputation as a leader and captain and his signing revved up a Cubs' fan base that has seen some popular dudes leave town in the last two years. No, he's not DeGrom, but he immediately boosts a staff otherwise populated with high-floor (but average ceiling) arms. January 31, 2023: Acquired 1B/DH Michael Busch from LA Dodgers for LF/1B Alfonso Rivas -We needed to alleviate the outfield glut on the 40-man and Rivas was easily the most logical trade piece. After his breakout in the second half of 2021 (142 wRC+ in 194 PAs), he lost the ability to hit the ball out of the park and posted a .096 ISO (69 wRC+) over 232 PAs last season. His lack of power makes him a poor fit as a 1B/DH/LF type, and he doesn't have the range to play in center field. At 26 and with two options remaining, he still had some trade value for the loaded Dodgers.  Meanwhile, Michael Busch has long been one of my favorite players in the minors despite his well-documented defensive shortcomings.   His plate discipline is among the elite in all of minor league baseball and he struck out just 11.2% of the time at AA Tulsa last year. The home run power still has some room to grow (current 40, potential 50) and I view him as an ideal DH candidate on a roster in need of on-base ability. Given premium that the Dodgers place on defensive versatility, it was nearly certain that never going to find a place for him on the big league roster. He'll compete with another former Dodger farmhand, Cristian Santana, for a part-time 1B/DH role on our opening day roster, though I think it's more likely that he opens at Iowa. 
Last edited by JAF373; 05-28-2021 at 08:24 AM. |
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05-28-2021, 09:31 AM
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#44 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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State of the 40-Man
As we enter the pre-season, here's where the 40-man stands.
Spots filled: 39/40 (18 batters; 21 pitchers) Hitters Subject to injury issues in Spring Training, I don't foresee adding any other hitters to the roster. David Bote is out of options and will need to clear waivers at the end of Spring. Of course, that won't be an issue since he's still owed $20M over the next three years. Thanks, Jed Hoyer. Really great.  Starters/Bulk/Long Relief Four of the rotation spots are set with Kershaw, Manaea, Hendricks, and Eflin. Ideally, Marquez will win the fifth spot after yo-yoing back and forth the last two seasons as a starter and bulk follower. He still only has 45 stamina but threw 89 innings last season over 19 appearances (15 starts) with a 4.01 ERA, 4.27 FIP, and 23.5% K rate. The walks spiked (13.3%) and he needs to get those down to around the 9-10% range. If he's not ready, Clarke Schmidt will assume the fifth starter's role after starting 27 big league games last season (4.25 ERA, 4.59 FIP) but he's really just an innings-eater (19.5K%, 10.8% BB). Justin Steele was out of options entering last season but managed to stick on the roster with a breakout season in which he fanned 28% of hitters over 78 innings (50 appearances). He and Nabil Crismatt (also out of options) will be the long relief guys to start the year. Elieser Hernandez is going to open at Iowa. It's a disappointing development from a guy who I foresaw as a potential #2/3 starter in the Miguel Amaya trade in 2021 and who was at times dominant in the second half of 2021. Perhaps better health this year will lead to a bounce-back.  Single Inning Relief Pitchers Not a lot of mysteries here. Corey Knebel will open the season as the closer but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he eventually cedes the role to Carraway, Garcia, or Rule 5 pick Fox. Manuel Rodriguez struck out 34% of batters at AA in 2021 and 27% at AAA in 2022 before a mid-season call-up to the bigs in which he struggled mightily with a 20.2% walk rate in 21 innings. I'd hate to lose him to waivers and will do everything possible to keep him on the roster in a low-leverage role. John Schreiber would be the first guy DFA'ed if we needed to open up a roster spot. Dairus Valdez is your prototypical, modern 2-pitch fireballer (99-101) with lousy control (30) and sky-high walk rates. He blew away 34% of hitters at AAA last year but his command predictably disappeared in a brief big league call-up. His changeup (30) still hasn't developed and he's never going to develop the requisite command to stick in the bigs. 
Last edited by JAF373; 05-28-2021 at 09:35 AM. |
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05-28-2021, 11:14 AM
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#45 |
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Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2019
Posts: 13,615
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BOOM! go the Baby Bears. Even at 34, CK is a stud.
__________________
HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS CUSTOM SAVES ECLIPSE LEAGUE MOON SHOT LEAGUE EVERYMAN LEAGUE LGB USBA |
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05-29-2021, 01:12 AM
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#46 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Announce 2023 Opening Day Roster
April 5, 2023
 After a 2021 season in purgatory and an improved-but-unsatisfying 2022, the Cubs are on the precipice of Opening Day in a season in which we expect to compete for a division title. The game is just a bit more pessimistic, projecting a 73-89 record. Given our depth, I'd be stunned if that morose prediction came to fruition. There were few open questions regarding the roster, but an early March addition surprised everyone and made the Opening Day club. Josh VanMeter, 28, put up monstrous numbers last season at AAA Reno and has experience playing everywhere except catcher and center field. He'll assume a super utility role for us, periodically DH'ing against RHP and filling in when guys need breathers. We signed him to a minor league deal in early March with a vesting $900,000 provision if he made the roster within 30 days. I thought recently-acquired top 100 prospect Michael Busch needed some more time at AAA and opted for VanMeter's versatility and experience to start the season. Matt Duffy was the other tough cut, but ultimately, VanMeter's power bat and outfield versatility was more appealing. With all three options remaining, I had little compunction about sending Jimmy Herron to Iowa. He's almost certainly going to be a fourth outfielder and we don't need him at the moment (at least until JaCoby Jones gets hurt). On the pitching side, I opted for Brailyn Marquez over Clarke Schmidt for the fifth starter spot. Marquez showed improved control and stamina in Spring Training and has upside well beyond that of Schmidt, who will anchor the Iowa rotation to start the year. He'll form a solid trio with Cory Abbott and Tyler Ivey. We're attempting to convert Elieser Hernandez into a closer at Iowa. He has two filthy pitches (70 slider, 80 changeup) and the "stuff" should play up in a one-inning role. Corey Knebel will miss the first week of the regular season with a strained hamstring. Bryan Garcia, acquired in December from Detroit for Mike Ford, will assume the gig until Knebel returns. We opted for 13 hitters and 13 pitchers to start the season. As mentioned, Nabil Crismatt and Justin Steele are listed as starters but will be deployed as long relief/bulk. So, without further ado, your 2023 Cubbies:   Injured List: RHP Corey Knebel (hamstring strain) - 6 days Last edited by JAF373; 05-29-2021 at 01:20 AM. |
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05-29-2021, 01:17 AM
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#47 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Projected Lineups and Rotation
Some different lineup construction this year with Nico Hoerner sliding up from the 2-hole into the lead-off spot and Rizzo hitting third in front of Arenado to help get him some more fastballs. Brennen Davis closed the season as the lead-off hitter, but my scout is exceptionally concerned about him right now (35 rating, for reasons I don't understand). Luis Barrera, who was our lead-off hitter for most of last season, slides down into the 9-hole, where he can use his electric speed and bat-to-ball ability to get on base in front of Hoerner and Contreras.
 
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05-30-2021, 07:42 PM
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#48 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Take Season-Opening Series Wins in Pittsburgh, D.C.
April 13, 2023
 04/06/23: Cubs 2, Pirates 1 -Clayton Kershaw was brilliant in his Chicago debut, scattering seven hits across seven shutout innings. The offense went silent after a 2-run first inning and fill-in closer Bryan Garcia danced out of a bases-loaded jam in the ninth to record the save. Trailing 2-1, the Pirates put runners on second and third before Garcia struck out Colin Moran. After an intentional walk to load the bases, Garcia fanned Anthony Alford and Jake Cronenworth to preserve the opening day win. Win: Clayton Kershaw, Loss: Mitch Keller, Save: Bryan Garcia (1) 04/08/23: Cubs 4, Pirates 2 -We won again despite being out-hit for the second consecutive game as Sean Manaea scattered seven hits across six innings of one-run ball. Jorge Polanco hit a two-run shot in the second inning and JaCoby Jones followed with a two-run double in the third to put us ahead 4-0, but as it did in the opener, the offense disappeared thereafter. Leading 4-2 in the eighth, Jordan Romano pitched out of a self-induced mess and handed the ball to Bryan Garcia for a clean ninth. Win: Sean Manaea, Loss: Quinn Priester, Save: Bryan Garcia (2) HR: Jorge Polanco (1) 04/09/23: Cubs 8, Pirates 9 (13 innings) -The offense finally flashed its upside, but the bullpen and defense collapsed en route to a tilting 9-8 loss in 13 innings. Nolan Arenado broke a 7-7 tie in the 13th with a solo homer, but Anthony Rizzo's second error of the game opened the door against Rule 5 pick Mason Fox in his MLB debut. Luis Barrera had three hits, including a triple, and JaCoby Jones capped off a strong debut series with two more doubles. Zach Eflin pitched well, tossing 5 1/3 innings in which he allowed three runs (just one earned). Win: Jordan Balazovic, Loss: Mason Fox HR: Nolan Arenado (1)  04/10/23: Cubs 4, Nationals 6 -Kyle Hendricks left after three innings (two earned runs) with a hamstring issue and the Nats jumped all over Nabil Crismatt to take a 6-1 lead in the fourth. We held them in check thereafter, but the comeback attempt fell short as we dropped to 2-2. Justin Steele kept us around with 2 2/3 scoreless innings and Anthony Rizzo's solo shot in the eighth made it 6-4, but Ryan Rollison shut us down in the ninth. Win: Taijuan Walker, Loss: K. Hendricks, Save: Ryan Rollison (2) Home Runs: Anthony Rizzo (1) 04/11/23: Cubs 6, Nationals 3 -Cristian Santana took advantage of a first inning error and crushed a grand slam to put us ahead 4-0 against Nats' starter Tim Cate. Brailyn Marquez was shaky early but pitched out a first inning jam before being lifted in the sixth inning (5 1/3, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4K). With the back end of the bullpen in need of a breather, Manuel Rodriguez pitched the final 2 2/3 innings (2 ER), allowing two runs in the ninth before inducing a game-ending ground out to record his first career big league save. Our trainer estimates Hendricks' absence at around five days, and with a day off, he might not have to miss a start. We could run into a roster issue when Knebel comes off the IL tomorrow. Win: Brailyn Marquez, Loss: Tim Cate, Save: Manuel Rodriguez (1) Home Runs: Cristian Santana (2), Nolan Arenado (1) Transaction: Claimed LHP Jalen Beeks Off Waivers from Tampa Bay -Beeks was a costly pick-up in light of our cash crunch, but I couldn't pass up the chance to snag a proven lefty with excellent command and stuff. He has a checkered injury history and missed most of last season following surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, but with an option remaining, we sent him to Iowa to work in a long relief role. He would perhaps slide ahead of Abbott and Ivey when we need innings on the big league roster. Tampa often deployed him as a "follower," and I would consider doing the same as needed. We had an open 40-man spot and did not need to DFA anyone.   04/12/23: Cubs 8, Nationals 5 -Nico Hoerner continued his blistering start with a 4-for-5 day, including a two-run homer off of Patrick Corbin, and the bullpen survived a second consecutive early departure from a starting pitcher after Clayton Kershaw left after 4 2/3 with upper leg tightness. The Nats pulled within 6-5 in the seventh, but Hoerner's second double of the game extended the margin. Burl Carraway retired four in a row and handed the ball to Bryan Garcia for his third save in three tries. With Knebel likely back tomorrow, Garcia will slide down into a setup role. Win: Justin Steele, Loss: Patrick Corbin, Save: Bryan Garcia (3) Home Runs: Nico Hoerner (1), Brennen Davis (1) Up Next: vs. CIN Sean Manaea, Zach Eflin, Brailyn Marquez Kyle Hendricks' hamstring wasn't looking promising, so we moved him to the IL for a brief 10-day stint and activated Corey Knebel, thereby avoiding a dreaded roster move. 
Last edited by JAF373; 05-30-2021 at 07:44 PM. |
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04-02-2022, 04:30 PM
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#49 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Sizzling Cubs Enter June With Division Lead
June 1, 2023
Record: 29-20 We're back. Season started slowly (12-17 through 29 games), but a lineup reshuffling unlocked hidden upside and we've ripped off 17 wins in our last 20. Pitching is a different story, as we lost Clayton Kershaw after three starts and he may not return this season with a rather significant elbow injury. Massive production from Nolan Arenado paired with Nico Hoerner's ascension to stardom - along with contributions from a very balanced lineup - has us cooking offensively. We lead the league in wOBA and extra base hits while striking out at (easily) the lowest rate in the league. With the ball constantly in play, we're putting significant pressure on opposing pitching staffs, and, in the "Three True Outcomes" Era, we're a little different from the crowd.  Lineup Analysis  -A tremendous first two months for Nolan Arenado, who is on pace to shatter his previous highs in WAR. His .451 ISO against LHP is downright inhuman. He's signed through the end of 2024 with a player option in 2025. -Nico Hoerner "broke out" last season with a 122 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR, but he's ascended to superstardom in 2023 with a walk rate above his strikeout rate. Sliding him from the leadoff spot into the 2-hole in front of Arenado has produced fantastic results, and the team-friendly extension we signed last August (6 years/$44M) looks better with each passing day. -Orlando Martinez, the 25 year-old OF we acquired from LAA last June in exchange for a broken James Paxton, doesn't fit the mold of a "traditional" clean-up hitter, but he's showing emerging power and near equivalent BB and K rates along with premium defense (65 grade) in left field.  -We acquired JaCoby Jones from Detroit in January (along with Bryan Garcia) from the payroll-strapped Tigers. He's set to become a free agent for the first time after this season and I don't envision him as a long-term fit. He also doesn't mesh well with David Ross' managerial style. That said, we don't have an obvious organizational replacement for him in CF (Luis Barrera is more of a corner guy and Jimmy Herron isn't going to hit enough for an everyday role). For now, he's playing stellar defense and tracking for a 5.0 WAR season, but as always for him, the injury monster is looming at all times. -With Hoerner dropping to the 2-hole, we entered the season without an obvious fit for the lead-off spot. Josh Van Meter had first crack and did a decent job (96 wRC+ in 100 PAs), but he herniated a disc in his back two weeks ago and will be out until late June. We needed someone to take at-bats at DH against RHP and jumped at the opportunity to acquire Matt Thaiss from the Angels for David Bote. As discussed previously, the prior regime gave Bote a long-term deal, but he's been a major disappointment. He was ripping the cover off the ball at AAA Iowa, but we were able to unload 50% of his deal ($16M total owed through 2025) for Thaiss. The move gave us some desperately needed payroll flexibility (now have $2.3M; previously had just $220K). With Michael Busch (acquired from LAD in January for Alfonso Rivas) looking MLB-ready and limited to 1B/DH, I don't foresee Thaiss being around past this season. If Busch continues to blossom at AAA, Thaiss could be moved for a prospect. For now, he'll continue batting lead-off against RHP.  -Anthony Rizzo's surface numbers are gruesome, but some of his struggles are attributable to a .147 BABIP through 188 PAs. He's walking at a 15% clip, so positive regression should set in shortly. -Luis Barrera suffered a nasty ankle sprain mid-April and missed five weeks, opening the door for a few of the younger outfielders. The most recent call-up was Jacob Samford, 25, acquired from the Yankees during the 2021 Deadline purge. He's a muscle hamster, power-hitting corner OF in the mold of Tyler O'Neill (lite version). He posted a nearly .200 ISO last season at AA Tennessee, and was off to a torrid start at AAA Iowa this season (.271 ISO,133 wRC+). We couldn't have asked for a better first two weeks as he popped five homers, including a mammoth 3-run bomb in extra innings to beat the White Sox on the road. He's limited to left field defensively and is allergic to drawing walks, but if he can keep the strikeout rate under 30%, he has a chance to stick long-term. The power (60 grade) is very, very real. -Amidst all of the promising developments, we had to send down Brennen Davis after 80 difficult PAs. Inexplicably, he showed up at camp a 35 overall after an electric big league debut last summer. He was overmatched in April and we sent him to Iowa for a reset. He's picked up the pace recently, posting a .159 wRC+ and .212 ISO at AAA. We're going to let him stay there until at least the All Star Break, but the current scouting reports are quite troubling. His defense (70 in LF and 50 in CF) make him a viable part-timer, but I'm afraid that the dream of him being an every day outfielder could be finished. Or maybe...my scout is simply off-base with his evaluation. We'll see. Current Base Lineups  Current Standings  Injured List:  Current Pitching Alignment 
Last edited by JAF373; 04-02-2022 at 04:50 PM. |
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04-06-2022, 06:14 PM
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#50 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Tied for Division Lead Entering June
July 3, 2023
 About as tight as it can get. Neither the Cards nor the Reds are built to run away with the division, so we're going to make a pretty substantial transactional push heading into prime trading season. June was somewhat busy, headlined by a major acquisition at the end of the month. Transactions 06/03/23: Acquired $450,000 in cash considerations from Minnesota for OF Cesar Puello and OF/RHP Jaden Noot -Well, we needed money. Badly. Puello is a career AAA outfielder with minimal defensive value. He posted a meager 77 wRC+ over 350 PAs last season at Iowa and was even worse this season (200 PAs). Noot was our 12th round pick last season out of Sierra Canyon HS as a two-way player. We opted to try him as an outfielder, but an injury prevented him from debuting last season. Our scout was unimpressed, slapping a 25 potential grade on him. It appears Minnesota is going to turn him into a pitcher, but he's already physically maxed out at 6'4, 235. He's the 59th-ranked prospect in Minnesota's system.  06/12/23: Signed LF/DH Andrew McCutchen to a 1-year, $130,000 minor league contract and designated OF Luis Barrera for Assignment -With Matt Thaiss, Jacob Sanford, Josh Van Meter, Anthony Rizzo, Luis Barrera, and Orlando Martinez, our DH/1B/OF mix had become way too left-handed. Barrera was the odd man out, suffering through another difficult season (86 wRC+) after posting similar numbers last season over 600 PAs. He was out of options and the speed/defense wasn't enough to justify keeping him on the roster. McCutchen spent all of 2022 in Miami, where he posted league average numbers over 632 PAs (100 wRC+, .098 ISO, 10.5% BB rate). He sat out the Spring in hopes of getting a major league deal, but his market never materialized. We reached out in early June and found him interested in joining us. He agreed to a cost-effective $130K bonus, which converted to the pro-rated league minimum when we promoted him on June 12th. He's batting leadoff and playing LF against lefties. Small sample thus far, but he's played well and adds another respected, veteran leadership presence to the locker room. I hoped to pass Barrera through waivers and keep him in the system, but the DBacks claimed him off of waivers a few days later. He subsequently suffered a quad strain and is out for the next six weeks. McCutchen  07/02/23: Acquired RHP Willy Collado from San Diego for 1B/OF Josh Van Meter -Another move to alleviate the left-handed hitting lineup glut and free up some dollars. Van Meter was a decent value add and made the opening day roster after signing a minor league deal in early March. Upon promotion, his minor league deal converted to a $900K major league contract. He was adequate leading off early in the season but missed several weeks with an injury. Upon return, he hit towards the bottom of the lineup against righties, but his roster spot was more useful to us for adding a pitcher after a run of marathon games wore out our pen. San Diego absorbed the remaining $475K on his contract. Collado is an interesting long-term bullpen piece. He signed with Houston in 2016 out of the DR and spent seven years in the organization before being released in March. San Diego immediately scooped him up and assigned him to High-A, where he struck out 28% of batters over 12 innings with no walks. He was promoted to Double-A and tossed 6 1/3 innings prior to the trade. My scout grades him a current 45 (potential 45) with fringy stuff (45 grade) but excellent movement (55) and control (60) with three plus pitches. It's unusual for a reliever these days to only sit 90-92, but his control is so elite that he'll might be a useful (and cheap) bullpen piece for the next several seasons. Our coaching staff at Double A Tennessee immediately plugged him into the closer's role, though he's probably more of a middle relief arm in the bigs. He's a lock to be added to the 40-man in the offseason.   07/03/23: Acquired RHP Sandy Alcantara from Miami for RHP Clarke Schmidt, 2B/3B Matt Duffy, C Ethan Hearn, and RHP Brody Brecht -Clearly, to push towards a division title, we needed another starter...and that was before Sean Manaea went down for at least the next month with a small labral tear. We had chatted with Miami a few weeks prior to Manaea's injury regarding Sandy Alcantara and the far more cost-prohibitive Trevor Rogers, though the prospect capital Kim Ng demanded for the latter was untenable. Despite amassing an impressive coterie of young pitchers (Rogers, Alcantara, Lopez, Sixto, Meyer, etc...), the Fish were no closer to contention than a few years ago (33-46, 17 games back in the division). With major arbitration salary jumps looming, they needed to move at least one of their young arms, though they hadn't "formally" placed any of them on the trade block. After missing the final month of 2022 and the first two months of 2023 with a partial UCL tear, Alcantara returned with a flourish in June (3 starts, 18.1 IP, 38% K rate, 5% BB rate) and his audition was sufficient for us to believe that he was fully "back" from the injury. He's making $3.9M in his first Arb season. Miami agreed to absorb 75% of the pro-rated salary (our hit is just $520K this year). The co-headliner in the deal Miami is catcher Ethan Hearn, our 6th round pick in 2019 and the 10th-ranked prospect in the Cubs' system prior to the trade. Despite reaching Double -A at age 22, I considered Hearn among the most expendable of our top prospects as he is unlikely to ever be better than replacement level behind the dish (50 catcher ability) and lacks the pop to play a full-time role at a corner infield position. Decent player, but my scout thinks he's basically around maxed out (current 40; potential 45). With Contreras, Ben Rortvedt, and Payton Henry, there is little need for a young catcher lacking standalone defensive value. He's currently the 9th-ranked prospect in the Marlins' system (213th overall). -The other key piece heading to Miami is Clarke Schmidt, 27, a former first round pick acquired from the Yankees in a 2021 Deadline deal involving Joc Pederson (and our current left fielder, Jacob Sanford). After some durability concerns earlier in his career, he fired 142 innings last season as a full-time member of the big league rotation (4.25 ERA, 4.59, FIP, 19.8% K, 10.5% BB, 1.5 WAR). He was squeezed out of the 2023 rotation after we signed Kershaw and pitched reasonably well over 11 starts. He made three nightmarish spot starts in the bigs (7.80 ERA 5.95 FIP) and was hit extremely hard in all three. I hesitated to move him, but the allure of the Alcantara upgrade was simply too tempting. Of course, Miami very much wanted him because he's a big league starter with three years of pre-arbitration control. -Matt Duffy, 32, might look like a throw-in piece, but I wouldn't have pulled the trigger here without Miami agreeing to absorb his remaining $700K salary hit. We foolishly brought him back for 2023 and let the case get to arbitration, where he was awarded $1.3M by a drunk arbitrator. He's spent all of 2022 and 2023 in Iowa, posting approximately a 100 wRC+ with no power (.074 ISO) and deteriorating defensive skills. As mentioned, we're quite low on payroll space, and freeing ourselves from the yoke of Duffy was a low-key important move. -Brody Brecht, 20, was our 10th round pick in 2021. He flashed above-average stuff and strikeout potential in rookie ball in 2021 and 2022, but not enough to earn a bump to full-season Low A. My scout tabs him a current 20 with 35+ FV, but he's unlikely to stick as a starter due to poor control. He was a 2-way prospect coming out of HS and is quite a long-term project. Perhaps the Miami pitching development machine can turn him into a viable pitcher; there's certainly upside here if he can harness his 101 MPH heater. He's currently the #21 prospect in the system. Minor League FA Signings: 06/12/23: RHP Owen Sharts (2021 7th Round Oakland); #32 CHC prospect 06/13/23: RHP Carter Boyd (2022 3rd Round Atlanta); #70 CHC prospect Current Pitching  Current Lineups  Current Injuries: 
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04-19-2022, 02:17 AM
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#51 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Make Deadline Additions
August 1, 2023
A week prior to the Deadline, we were in an odd spot standings-wise. At 3.5 GB of the Cardinals and a half-game back of the Reds, the NL Central was clearly "doable," but the odds were likely in the 20-25% range. Still, the fans have stuck with us through two terrible years, and I felt it was worth it to make some additions (beyond Sandy Alcantara) to make a real run for the division crown. It's a flawed roster, but the weakness of the division dictated our Deadline strategy. The market for bats was exceedingly weak, though we did find a useful bat right at the gun on Deadline day. Given our injury situation (Kershaw out all year, Manaea/Beeks another 1-2 weeks on the shelf) I poked around for another starter, but ended up focusing more so on multi-inning relief arms. 07/24/23: Acquired RHP Kirby Yates from Philadelphia for RHP Isaiah Magwood -Yates, 36, signed a 1-year, $6M deal with the Phillies in the offseason and was reasonably effective over 32 IP. His strikeout stuff has dipped a bit, but he's still a reliable mid/late inning arm. Our setup duo of Bryan Garcia (52 IP, 3.12 ERA/3.42 FIP, 24.7% K rate) and Burl Carraway (34 IP, 2.12 ERA, 2.86 FIP, 34.7% K rate) has held up quite well, but the middle portion was showing cracks with a recent decline from Rule 5 pick Mason Fox and below-average production from long man Nabil Crismatt. The Phillies agreed to absorb the remainder ($2.2M) of his pro-rated salary. -Magwood, 23, was our 16th round pick in 2022 out of Jacksonville State. He's generally flashed above-average stuff, but his dismal control likely precludes any sort of big league career. He showed quite well at Low A Myrtle and earned a mid-season promotion to South Bend, but with 50 stamina and the aforementioned control issues, this is strictly a reliever profile. He walked 14.9% of hitters following the promotion to High-A and my scout slapped a 25+ FV grade on him. If the control doesn't improve, he's unlikely to ever get past AA.  With the middle somewhat firmed up, I pulled the trigger the following day on another bullpen deal, this time landing a right-handed long man to replace Nabil Crismatt. 07/25/23: Acquired RHP Chad Kuhl from Pittsburgh for RHP Lucas Davenport -Kuhl, 30, returned to Pittsburgh on a waiver claim in May 2022 and was awarded $1.3M at arbitration in the offseason. He'll hit the free agent market at the end of this season. For Pittsburgh, he appeared in 27 games, starting 10, and pitched to a reasonable 4.31 ERA (4.41 FIP) with a 22.6% K rate and 6.6% BB rate. With 65 stamina, he's built to pitch deep into games, but I wanted him to fill a 3-4 inning role. In a corresponding move, we DFA'ed Crismatt, who was initially acquired off of waivers from San Diego in June 2022. His 4.53 FIP (3.88 FIP) was hardly offensive, but with a 9.9% BB rate and just a 40 grade (40 movement), he was too combustible for my taste. Kuhl is a clear upgrade. Fortunately, Crismatt cleared waivers and was outrighted to Iowa. There's a decent chance he ends up back in our bullpen at some point this season. -Davenport, 19, was our 18th round pick last season out of a south Texas HS. My scout gave him a 30 FV grade with 55 stuff but only 40 control. With a potential 60 fastball and 65 slider, it's feasible that he eventually develops into a useful relief arm. He slotted in as the Pirates' 60th-ranked organizational prospect.  With time running out on Deadline Day, I reached out to the Jays regarding one of the pieces in their crowded outfield. This particular player was on an expiring contract and playing a limited role on a disappointing team. 07/31/23: Acquired OF Randal Grichuk from Toronto for LHP Daniel Paret -Grichuk, 30, signed a 4-year, $52M deal with Toronto following the 2019 season. The deal didn't work out well for the Jays, and Grichuk was pushed down the depth chart with Toronto's outfield talent influx. While Andrew McCutchen (picked up off the free agent scrap heap in June) has been a boon, we very much needed another right-handed hitting power bat to balance out a left-handed heavy lineup. In 177 PAs for Toronto this season, Grichuk posted a 124 wRC+ with a .226 ISO and a 26% K rate. He'll never hit for average, but the thump in his bat should help us against LHP and he's still a very strong defender (65 LF - 40 CF - 55 RF). Toronto agreed to eat 75% of the remainder of his deal, too (approximately $3M of the remaining $3.8M). In a corresponding move, we sent Jimmy Herron (who has been a human yo-yo this season) back to Iowa. I'm a fan of Herron's defense, but he's the embodiment of the "Quad A" outfielder (111 wRC+ at Iowa; 82 wRC+ in MLB). -Paret, 23, was our 22nd round pick out of Stetson in last season's draft. Our scout thinks he's cannon fodder (20 FV) and unlike to ever get out of A ball. Clearly, Toronto was happy to cut ties with Grichuk and clear a roster spot for nothing in return other than a bit of salary relief.  So, with some reshuffling of our frigid lineup, here's how things will look as we emerge from the Deadline: 
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04-27-2022, 10:08 PM
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#52 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Cubs Finish 80-82; 2023 Season Review
December 1, 2023
Well, the long climb back to respectability continues. We hung around until mid-September, but the Cardinals finally pulled away in the final few weeks and won the Central by seven games. The April loss of Clayton Kershaw and mid-August injury to Sandy Alcantara deprived the rotation of its two best assets, and while the lineup showed sustained periods of competence, we were undone by horrible years from Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, and Jorge Polanco. Still, while the records look nearly identical, it was an appreciable improvement over 2022, and we beat the media's 73-89 projection by seven games. As discussed below, the overall talent level in the system is unrecognizable from where we started in 2021.  
Free Agent Pitchers - No Longer With Team 
Starters 
Relievers/Bulk  Only going to talk about one guy here, and it's Brailyn Marquez. After yet another flop as a "traditional" starter, we plugged him into a long relief role. That turned into a slightly more risky "medium leverage" role. Late in the year, he evolved into a multi-inning "stopper" role, pitching in crucial spots in the 6th and/or 7th innings. It's hard to pinpoint where, precisely, he fits in, but the pure nastiness is undeniable. My scout grades him a a 75, and he is the most sought-after trade commodity we've had in my tenure. The offers rolling in are quite substantial, and I'm going to strongly consider moving him in exchange for at least one everyday player and a few notable prospects.  
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04-28-2022, 09:51 PM
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#53 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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2023-24 Offseason Review - Big Additions! Prospects Galore!
March 7, 2024
Well, this was probably the most fun offseason thus far. With roughly $54M to play with, there was a temptation to "ball out," but I focused on one major FA agent acquisition and landed an expensive fish via trade. We also dealt our most valuable roster chip for a bountiful return. Outside of those three major moves, there was quite a bit of tinkering around the roster periphery and a general focus on stashing useful depth in AAA/AA. In chronological order. 10/19/23: Signed RHP Corey Knebel to a 2-year/$19M extension -We took a risk on Knebel ahead of the 2022 season, signing him to a 2-year at deal $5.1M/per year that accounted for his troubled injury history. Fortunately, other than a brief three-week stint for a hamstring strain, he was a model of health for us and one of the five best closers in baseball over the past two seasons (64 saves in 71 chances). As usual, he ran a very high walk rate (15.0%), but because he keeps the ball in the park and is impossible to square up, it's not a big deal. I hesitated a bit doling out $9.5M per year to a soon-to-be 33 year-old, but we were able to get ahead of the free agent relief market and avoid getting caught up in a bidding war for one of the big names on the open market.  11/10/23: Claimed RHP Tyler Rogers off waivers from San Francisco -The Giants faced a devastating cash crunch this offseason and immediately jettisoned a few of their more costly pieces. Not to be confused with his hard-throwing, left-handed brother, Rogers is a known commodity as a side-arming sinker/slider wizard with impeccable control and high ground-ball rates. His ERA is somewhat deceiving (FIP more than a full run higher) thanks to stellar BABIP luck, but he stays off the barrel and induces extreme levels of soft contact. He earned $1.3M in 2023 with the Giants and we agreed to pay him $2.16M to avoid arbitration for the 2024 season. He's arb-eligible one more time and will slot into a high-usage middle relief role in our (hopefully?) stocked bullpen.  11/11/23: Signed LF/DH Andrew McCutchen to a 2-year, $4.4M extension (2025 team option contingency) As mentioned in a prior write-up, I wanted McCutchen back for his outstanding leadership and captaincy, as well as his still-elite profile against LHP. While we probably could've shaved some dollars off of this deal, I could think of worse ways to allocate $2.2M in 2024. His team option for 2025 in contingent upon reaching 510 PAs - a number I do not foresee him attaining at age 37. The speed element of his game is certainly gone; he stole 13 bags for the Marlins in 2022, but didn't even attempt a swipe in 2023. Nonetheless, he could end up breaking camp as the (nearly) everyday left fielder unless one of the younger guys shows consistency during the Spring.  12/03/23: Acquired LHP Brian Moran from Tampa Bay for OF Derek Hill Good move for both sides. Hill, the Tigers' first round pick in 2014, spent nearly a decade in the Detroit system. He couldn't stay healthy for long periods of time and his only crack at the big leagues was a 12-game stretch at the end of 2020 in which he received just 15 PAs. When healthy, he's been a productive AAA player, posting a .818 OPS (110 OPS+) over parts of the previous three seasons with stellar outfield defense (2021 AAA East gold glove winner in CF). His best season was in 2022, when he blasted AAA pitching to the tune of a .429 wOBA, .270 ISO, and 164 wRC+. He elected minor league free agency and departed Detroit to sign a a minor league deal with us last January. Despite his subsequent injury-riddled 2023, I was pleased when he chose to re-up with us in November on another minor league deal. But when we made an offer to another borderline AAA/MLB center fielder with superior skills, Hill became expendable. He fills an organization need for the Rays, who were suddenly looking very thin in CF. Moran is the classic late (LATE) bloomer Tampa Bay success story. His baseball card reads like a European explorer's travel itinerary, starting when he was drafted out of UNC in 2009, multiple stops in Independent leagues, and stints with eight different organizations prior to Tampa. Entering 2021, he had just 15 big league innings to show for his vagabond journey. The Rays signed him to a minor league deal ahead of the 2021 season and he spent the entire season at AAA Durham, where he mystified hitters with a submarine-style repertoire and posted a 29.9% K rate. He returned to Durham to open 2022 and posted a 31.5% K rate over 24 appearances before getting promoted to Tampa. He finished out the year in the bigs and broke camp in 2023 on the opening day roster. From there, he authored one of the unlikeliest success stories in recent baseball history, earning an All Star appearance thanks to 86.1 innings (59 appearances) with a 2.81 ERA (3.25 FIP) and 28.2% K rate. He was awarded $1.28M at arbitration and the cost-conscious Rays were content to cash in on this incredibly unlikely diamond-in-the-rough. My scout thinks he's a steady 55 with a nasty sinker/slider/changeup arsenal, and he's truly unhittable against left-handed batters (37.4% K rate, 5% walk rate, .520 OPS allowed). With Tyler Rogers and Moran, we now have two of the toughest submarine arms in baseball - one from each side of the mound. Massive upgrade for us with Moran supplanting Brent Suter (left in free agency) as the proverbial "lefty specialist."  12/17/23: Traded LHP Brailyn Marquez to Atlanta for OF Corbin Carroll, OF Tyree Reed, C Rene Lastres, and RHP AJ Labas Whew. After a few weeks of soliciting proposals for perhaps the most valuable trade chip on the market this offseason, we sealed the deal at the Winter Meetings. There were a few other compelling packages (the Yankees, in particular, made an admirable push), but I picked the Braves' offering because of their inclusion of a projected future starting catcher, Rene Lastres. So, who are these guys? Corbin Carroll, 23, will have every opportunity to win the starting CF job out of spring training. He's the heavy favorite to do so, even after only spending a week in AAA at the end of last season. Carroll, the DBacks' first round pick in 2019 and who the Braves acquired in 2021, entered the 2023 season as the 27th-ranked prospect in MLB and did little to damage that ranking, winning AA South's silver slugger award but remaining stuck in the upper minors due to Atlanta's packed outfield. With Acuna, Pache, Ozuna, and offseason signing Jurickson Profar, the Braves viewed Carroll as expendable. With 70 speed and elite bat-to-ball skills, he could be the solution to our longstanding void in the lead-off spot. His plate discipline remains a work in progress (current 40; potential 55), but if he can bump up his walk rate by a few points, this is a potential All Star-caliber outfielder built in a lab to serve as a lineup table-setter. Tyree Reed, 21, was the Braves' first round pick in 2021 out of an Oklahoma high school. As always with toolsy high school outfielders, the developmental curve here is quite significant, but he showed respectable plate discipline in rookie ball (10.6% BB rate, 21.5% K rate) and projects to potentially get to 50 HR power (65 gap). More importantly, he has an elite glove in both corner OF spots (60 arm/60 range/75 speed) and won the gold glove award in his rookie ball league. I wouldn't be surprised if he scuffles early as a just-turned 21 year-old in Low A, though anything south of a 25% K rate should be considered a promising sign. It'll be awhile, but it could be worth the wait. He's our 11th-ranked prospect and 247th overall. Rene Lastres, 20, was the Braves' second round pick in 2021 out of powerhouse baseball factory Miami Christian. He's a consensus top eight catching prospect in all of MILB and complements an advanced bat with premium defense (65 catching ability). In two partial seasons in Rookie Ball, he clocked 18 homers in 350 plate appearances (.248 ISO). My scout also noted his leadership and work ethic qualities. He'll join Reed at Low A Myrtle Beach in April and should move through the system at a faster rate than most HS prospects thanks to his work behind the plate. He's our 6th-ranked prospect and 206th overall. A.J. Labas, 25, was originally an 18th round pick out of HS in 2017 but opted to attend LSU. He re-entered the 2021 Draft following his senior year and the Braves picked him in the 12th round. He missed approximately half of 2022 with nagging injuries but stayed healthy throughout 2023, finishing second in the AA South Cy Young race. He's very much a "pitchability" guy and lacks both stuff (45) and movement (45), but gets by thanks to elite control (65). He was only 90-91 mph out of college but is now consistently 93-94 with a four-pitch mix (60 grade changeup). He's behind schedule after spending all four years in college and then missing much of 2022, but my scout thinks he still has room to grow (current 40; potential 50). He'll be in the mix next season for a big league spot - either at the bottom of the rotation or in long relief. He'll open 2024 at Iowa and is our 16th-ranked prospect (387th overall). Overall haul: 2nd, 6th, 11th, and 16th prospects in our system.    12/18/23: Signed OF/2B Jahmai Jones to a minor league contract with a $960K major league option Frankly, the center field market is a desolate graveyard. Finding high-level CF defenders who aren't atrocious at the plate is becoming increasingly difficult, and management across baseball has certainly taken notice. Consequently, a guy like Jones becomes valuable with 55 grade defense in CF and a fringy-but-tolerable bat. Jones spent 2021-23 with Baltimore after being dealt by the Angels in the Alex Cobb deal. He didn't get to the majors and racked up nearly 1000 AAA plate appearances over three seasons in Norfolk, posting a combined 96 wRC+. He broke out in 2023 with a 118 wRC+, albeit only in a part-time role. My scout is enamored with his playing style and grades him a 40+/45 type. He wouldn't take a minor league-only deal and insisted upon an opt-out clause if we don't promote him within 30 days. Given the lack of available options for CF depth, I thought it was a fair proposal. He's third in line in the organization CF pecking order behind Corbin Carroll and Jimmy Herron, but because Herron has two remaining options and Jones is out of options, Jones might win the backup OF role by default.   12/18/23: Traded RHP Kohl Franklin to New York (AL) for 2B Brenny Escanio, OF Ryder Green, and LHP Alfredo Garcia One of the few remaining holdovers from the prior regime, Franklin, 24, was a sixth round pick in 2018 but still hasn't thrown a pitch above High-A. Despite the struggles of the last few seasons, I've grown to trust my scouting department, and their reports on Franklin consistently pointed to a guy with high-grade stuff but sketchy at-best movement and control. His 55 stamina keeps him in the SP conversation, but he posted a 12.2% BB rate at High A in 2023 with a 4.82 FIP. I'm open to the possibility that he's simply a slow developer - and to wit, my scout still thinks he can eventually grow into a 50 grade - but it's probably going to be in a multi-inning relief role. That said, I received several different inquires regarding Franklin, and the Yankees were particularly brazen in pursuing him. After some haggling, the return was simply too strong to ignore. There's no real "headliner" here, but to the extent there is one, it's Brenny Escanio, whose name conjures up images of a twitchy, 5'9, 150-pound middle infielder with a great glove and no pop. And, well, yes, actually that's...pretty true. This is indeed the Jacob Amaya profile. While Amaya hasn't quite figured it out in the bigs, this particular archetype - great glove, high walk rate, below average power - is desirable in the modern MLB environment. Despite his stature, he showed decent pop in 2023 with a .155 ISO in rookie ball; 9 HR in 150 PAs) and showed impressive plate discipline (16.4% BB rate). Because his bat-to-ball skills and defense are so advanced, we're skipping over Low A and sending him straight to South Bend. He's our 7th-ranked prospect and 249th overall. Ryder Green was a very raw third round pick out of HS in 2018 and has followed the standard, methodical trajectory commonly associated with this particular profile. He's limited to the corners defensively and is certainly not going to win any fielding awards, but he runs quite well (60 speed, 60 stealing) despite a very average defensive profile. Offensively, it's power (55) over hit tool (45), and he's still very much growing into his plate discipline. Optimistically, despite playing in a tough park at Tampa, he posted a .370 wOBA in 220 plate appearances and ended the year with a brief appearance at AA Somerset. He's probably going to struggle early at AA Tennessee, but at 23 years old, he's approaching the tipping point at which this player profile either flames out or shows a big league future. He's our 21st-ranked prospect and 446th overall. Alfredo Garcia is listed as a starter and has 50-ish stamina, but he hasn't "started" a game since 2020. Signed out of Venezuela by Colorado as a 16 year-old in 2016, he was traded to the Yankees in 2019. He's developed a very solid 3-pitch arsenal (headlined by a 75 grade changeup) and fanned 31.9% of hitters at AA Tampa last season. The stuff (55) is way ahead of the movement (45) and control (45), but he's going to eventually factor into our big league ballclub in some currently undefined capacity. He's only the 34th-ranked prospect in the system, but I'm way, way higher on him that than ranking would suggest. He'll get an aggressive push to Iowa to open 2024.  12/23/23: Traded RHP Vince Trapani from San Francisco for LHP Joe Rock and 2B Will Wilson Similar rationale to the Kohl Franklin deal. We're chasing a ceiling with Joe Rock, a fifth round pick in 2021 out of Ohio U. This is the rare "80" fastball, complemented by a 75 slider and 60 curveball (and a mediocre 45 changeup). The "stuff" is 70 grade, but with 35 control, he's obviously firmly in reliever territory. Still, despite the control woes, he managed to make 20 starts at AA in 2023, firing 110 innings with a 26.9% K rate and respectable 11% BB rate. At the mid-season update, Rock was the 95th-ranked prospect in baseball, but he was shut down in early August with shoulder inflammation. He seems to fully recovered, and my scout thinks he has a 65 ceiling as a starter. I'm having trouble seeing it because of the command, but these types of arms don't grow on trees. He'll return to AA to open 2024, but if all goes well early, he'll be in Iowa by June. 9th-ranked prospect in our system. On paper, Will Wilson is indistinguishable from Andy Weber, a mediocre defender at 2B with a solid hit tool and below-average power. But Wilson is far better at getting on base and has a first round pedigree (2019). He also absolutely raked over the last two seasons at AA and AAA. We DFA'ed Weber to make room on the 40-man. Wilson is on the cusp of a big league gig, though Jorge Polanco's projected mid-May return will complicate matters. 17th-ranked prospect in the system.  12/27/23: Selected RHP Jack Little in the Rule 5 Draft A fifth round pick of the Dodgers in 2019 out of Stanford, Little profiles similarly to our Rule 5 pick last season, Mason Fox. Unlike Fox, he has a reliable third pitch. He's a quasi-sidearmer who generates extreme groundball rates (68% in AA) with a 28% K rate. It's an exceptionally different delivery to square up. I don't see back-end ceiling/stuff, but he should be a reliable middle relief contributor for several seasons.  
Last edited by JAF373; 04-28-2022 at 09:54 PM. |
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04-29-2022, 01:10 AM
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#54 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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01/11/24: Signed RHP Aaron Nola to a 5-year, $120.8MM contract
Well, I said there was one big free agent splurge, and this was it. Nola was my only big ticket target on the open market. I checked in with the Phillies back in early July once it became clear that they weren't going to contend, but the asking price in a trade - even in Nola's "walk" year - was downright obscene. The Phillies tendered him a qualifying offer, which he swiftly rejected. He's started 100 games over the past three seasons - a rather impressive run of durability amidst the excessively injury-prone environment around the league. Assuming he's healthy throughout the deal, this was an eminently reasonable asking price, especially considering Joe Musgrove got six years and $153MM from the Angels. My scout grades Nola a 70 and gives him at least a 60 grade on all four pitches (70 change; 75 curve). Given the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw and Alcantara, we needed a bona fide top shelf guy at the top of the rotation.  01/20/24: Signed 3B/OF Brian Anderson to a minor league contract with a $2.4M major league option With Arenado and a crowded outfield, I don't foresee Anderson making the opening day roster, but he's a solid part-time player who could help us later in the year if he agrees to stick around past the 30-day opt-out threshold. His overall output has decreased in each of the last three seasons, though my scout thinks he's still an overall 50.  01/25/24: Acquired SS Tim Anderson from Chicago (AL) for 2B Nico Hoerner, RHP Ryan Jensen, RHP Ramon Negron, and LHP Jace Miner A whopper. The White Sox put Anderson on the block at the end of the season, presumably due to him entering the final year of his contract. I opened up the lines of communication shortly thereafter, but the asking price was wildly high (Marquez + top five org prospect + other solid prospects). When I tried again in mid-January, it appeared they had somewhat softened their stance, but the pieces weren't lining up. On a whim, I floated Hoerner as the centerpiece and found interest on the other end. After several rounds of back-and-forth haggling (I really did not want to give up our co-best catching prospect, Moises Ballesteros), we consummated the biggest intra-city deal since Eloy Jimenez changed sides. Tim Anderson is a game-changer at shortstop. The free agent market was entirely devoid of options (Galvis and Orlando Arcia were the "best" available) and the Mariners' asking price on J.P. Crawford was not reasonable. I could've started the season with Jacob Amaya as the starter, but expecting him to jump from a 68 wRC+ to a replacement-level regular didn't seem wise. Anderson didn't quite match his career-best 2021 output (5.5 WAR, 139 wRC+), but he was one of the better shortstops in the AL in 2023 (4.3 WAR). We think we know what we're getting here: above-average power for the position, non-existent walk rates, and 25-30 stolen bases. Plus, he's a clubhouse leader with an elite work ethic. It's unclear if he'll lead off (Corbin Carroll is probably going to be that guy), but he could take Hoerner's old spot in the 2-hole. He'll make $14M in the final year of his deal. We'll see how things go early in the season, but I'd love to chat with him regarding a 4-5 year contract extension. With Hoerner gone, Nola is our only current long-term contract commitment. It was difficult parting with Nico Hoerner. A fan favorite and homegrown talent on a team-friendly long-term contract, he didn't fit the mold of a trade candidate, but I gradually started to sour on his role within the lineup. To be clear, it wasn't a production problem. He followed up his 2022 breakout (3.7 WAR) with a 3.5 WAR season in 2023, yet again refusing to strike out and posting a .356 OBP. That's pretty damn strong. But the lineup needed more "oomph," with only Arenado a reliable power hitting force. Risky move if we can't re-sign Anderson, but I needed to do something big to shake up our stagnant core. Frankly, the prospect return for the Sox was underwhelming. Only Ramon Negron is in their top 30 (barely). We signed Negron in 2022 as a 16-year old "July 2" free agent, and he struggled mightily through his first pro season. No harm there, of course, but my scout completely lost faith, downgrading him from a 70 on signing day to a current 40. Other than a high ground ball rate, Negron didn't show any signs of development in year one (17.6% BB rate; 11.7% K rate). Presumably, the Sox still see the upside (he's still only 17), but I wanted to cut bait while there was still some lingering market value. Ryan Jensen, 26, was a frequent ask from teams in trade discussions. It's unclear why this was the case. He's maxed out at 40 movement and 40 control and just a 35 overall grade from my scout. This is a AA arm talent who doesn't have any future viability in the bigs. Jace Miner, 20, was our 19th round pick in 2021. His first two rookie ball seasons were downright nightmarish (8.45 ERA and 8.23 ERA, respectively) and he'll likely max out in the 30-35 FV range. He's the 64th-ranked prospect in the Sox system.  01/28/24: Signed C Cam Gallagher to a 1-year, $1.1M contract Backup catcher was not an offseason priority and I figured I would grumble through another year of Payton Henry's solid defense and putrid bat. But when Gallagher dropped his demand, we reached out to gauge interest. As a sign of how awful this entire free agent class was, Gallagher was the top catching option available. That's not a knock, per se. Fortunately, not only is his bat quite a bit better than Henry's, but he also grades out as a superior defender (65 C ability). Henry and Ben Rortvedt will split catching duties at Iowa, and either of those would be adequate backups if Gallagher goes down. Arbitration Awards/Extensions: RHP Sandy Alcantara: $5.5M RHP Bryan Garcia: $5.0M RHP Elieser Hernandez: $3.36M LHP Jalen Beeks: $1.36M RHP Tyler Ivey: $830K Current Injuries: RHP Sandy Alcantara (60-day IL - projected return June/July) 2B Jorge Polanco (60 day IL - projected return late March/early April) Last edited by JAF373; 04-29-2022 at 11:21 AM. |
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04-30-2022, 06:35 PM
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#55 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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2024 Roster Preview - Hitters
April 10, 2024
After a whirlwind December and January, the months of February and March were relatively quiet. The schedule is oddly late this year, with Opening Day delayed until April 11. Perhaps there was a prolonged labor dispute... Anyway, we made a few small potatoes additions of aging veterans with diminished skill sets. 01/28/24: Signed OF David Dahl to a minor league contract Posted a 106 wRC+ in a full-time gig with the Rangers in 2021 but struggled through myriad injuries in 2022 and was eventually DFA'ed. He cleared waivers and returned to AAA Round Rock to finish out the season. The Rangers apparently thought he was beyond washed and released him at the end of 2023 spring training, absorbing a $6.7M hit for the final year of his contract. He never signed with anyone else and sat out all of 2023. My scout thinks he's a 40 overall but a 65 in LF and a 55 in RF. I project him around an 84 OPS+ in the bigs as the bat is not nearly what it was a few years ago in Colorado. Still, he's decent corner OF depth at AAA and will hit in the middle of the Iowa lineup. 03/03/24: Signed LHP Madison Bumgarner to a minor league contract He's still kickin...sort of. Bum played out the final year of his DBacks contract, pitching to a 4.81 ERA (4.93) FIP over 29 starts. As usual, he was durable, but my scout thinks his movement has slid all the way down to a 30. I figured somebody would give him a 1-year "prove it" deal, or at a least a minor league deal with a 30-day major league option, but it didn't materialize. It's a risk-free proposition for us, though he's fairly far down in the SP pecking order at Iowa. My scout thinks he's just a 35 overall, in large part due to an inability to miss bats and some brutal homer woes. 04/07/24: Acquired RHP Zach Willeman from Baltimore for 2B Jorge Polanco, RHP Kenyi Perez, and 2B Bryan Serra As mentioned in a prior post, Polanco's return from a torn ACL was inevitably going to cause roster issues. In addition to making $10.5M for below-replacement level production, he was also an impediment to my optimal roster construction. He returned in time for a few Spring Training games and I aggressively shopped him for various returns. The only consistent suitor was Baltimore, whose young core sort of broke out last season (80-82) but still had some notable roster holes. I'm not convinced that Polanco is quite as bad as he looked last season, though it's worth noting that he hasn't finished above a 100 wRC+ since 2019. We agreed to eat 50% of Polanco's salary and freed up $5.2M in the process. Kenyi Perez and Bryan Serra are both organizational fodder (20 grades) and were acquired by the prior regime. Zach Willeman, 28, is an extremely late bloomer who didn't crack the majors until late in 2022. He broke through last season in 43 appearances, posting a 3.18 ERA (3.95 FIP) and a 28.8% K rate. He did walk 10.5% of batters, but all three pitches are plus-plus (70 curve; 65 FB and 65 change). With 60 stuff, he should be able to maintain that K rate. It was a close call between him and Kyle Wright for the final bullpen spot, but the latter guy is out of options while Willeman still has two remaining. Moving forward, though, with 45 stamina, he can work multiple innings. He'll open at Iowa as a vital piece in the back end of the bullpen there. Very pleased with this return for Polanco.   Opening Day Roster To streamline things, I'll go position-by-position with a look at the depth charts from Double A through the Majors. The farthest right column indicates if the player is on the 40-man. Of course, there's plenty of positional overlap here (especially at 2B/SS and DH/corner OF types). Catcher  We desperately need a semblance of a bounce back from Willson Contreras, and he showed signs of life with a very nice spring (.415 wOBA in 38 PAs). Just getting him back to around 100 wRC+ (87 last season) would be a boon to the lineup. The bigger concern is his declining defense. Cam Gallagher was squeezed off of the Royals' roster last season and spent 2023 in AAA, but he's one of the best defensive catchers in baseball (65 ability). We might've slightly overpaid for him, but the upgrade over Payton Henry is worthwhile. Henry, Ben Rortvedt , and offseason signee Brian Navarreto will split reps at Iowa. Navarreto is on-par with Henry defensively, but has a better arm (70) and has raked in three straight seasons at AAA (Miami), clocking 33 HRs with a .175 ISO and a .338 wOBA with minimal K rates (16.3%). Henry would be the first guy up because he's on the 40-man and is far superior to Rortvedt defensively, but I wouldn't be surprised if Navarreto leads the trio in playing time at Iowa. The Double A catching group is quite solid defensively with holdovers Edgar Cabral and Joe Hudson being joined by 2023 18th round pick Michael Carpentier from Arizona State. Carpentier swiped 65 bags in three college seasons, but my scout thinks he's already maxed out ratings-wise, and despite just being drafted last season is about to turn 24 years old. Still, if he provides several years of steady defense in AA/AAA, it's a successful use of an 18th round pick. First Base  The lone mild surprise here is Brian Anderson making the big league roster, but as the spring went along, I realized he would be a strong fit as a lefty mashing 1B/DH option with enough versatility to fill in as needed at 3B and both corner OF spots. He's endured consecutive brutal seasons at the plate, but our lineup should be far more functional than his situation in Miami. Even an 85-90 wRC+ with defensive versatility would be adequate here. Anderson will also allow us to sit Anthony Rizzo against LHP. As noted is an earlier post, Rizzo posted a historically unlucky BABIP last season, and while some positive regression is expected, he's an aging, extreme pull hitter. Michael Busch hitting leadoff changed the complexion of our lineup when he came up from AAA following the All Star break, but with Corbin Carroll and Tim Anderson now on the roster, Busch and his nearly .400 OBP is a better fit hitting third in front of Arenado. Matt Thaiss had one remaining option and is a ML-caliber 1B/DH option at Iowa. He would be the first guy up with an injury to Busch or Rizzo. I love what I've seen from the 2018 18th round pick, 1B/3B Jake Slaughter. He flat-out raked last season at Iowa with a .394 wOBA and 155 wRC+ 170 PA's with more walks than strikeouts, but struggled to find playing time. The Iowa third base gig is his alone this season, and with 50 defense at 3B (and 70 at 1B), he very well could supplant Brian Anderson on the major league roster at some point this season. We acquired Baron Radcliff from the Phillies as the secondary piece in the Zach Eflin/Billy Sullivan IV January swap. A 5th round pick in 2020 out of Georgia Tech, he's a hulking dude (6'4, 230) limited to 1B and (maybe) the outfield corners and comes with 60 grade HR power and patience. He cut his K rate from 27% to 21% while jumping from High-A to Double A and posted career-high ISO numbers (.280). He's a legit threat to lead Double A South in in homers this season, but faces a difficult road to the majors because of his 35 contact grade and questionable defense. Second Base  With Jorge Polanco now in Baltimore and Nico Hoerner on the South Side, the second base job belongs to Jacob Amaya. The surface numbers were brutal in his rookie season, but ZIPS is projecting him for 1.1 WAR and an 80 wRC+. That's certainly not "good" in a vacuum, but his defense (65) is excellent and he looked awesome in 47 spring PAs (.391 wOBA and 4 XBHs). Jahmai Jones has substantial experience at both 2B and CF, though he's clearly better in the outfield. His ability to play two difficult defensive positions (and no remaining minor league options) gave him up a leg up on Jimmy Herron for the final roster spot. Since he's on the roster on opening day, he'll make $960K. The quartet at AAA has some overlapping skill sets, but the headliner is Will Wilson, who we acquired from the Giants in December. He's combined to post a 121 wRC+ in the last three seasons (AA/AAA) and led the team in PAs during the spring. There's not much of a ceiling here, but he's a likely candidate to carve out a part-time big league role over the course of the next few seasons. His arrival bumped Andy Weber down in the pecking order. Weber has no pop and is a fringy defender at 2B, but puts the bat on the ball (60 contact) and doesn't strike out. It's sort of a low-end David Fletcher profile. Flemin Bautista, signed out of the DR in 2018, is Weber with a better glove, more speed, and two years younger (just turned 24) but has no remaining physical projection. Grae Kessinger is the best of the bunch defensively and has been in the system since mid-2022 (third piece in the Jason Heyward trade). He was the worst hitter in AAA West last season (41 wRC+) but consistently earns high marks in leadership and work ethic. The middle infield at Iowa is more crowded this year, and he'll struggle to earn ABs with the improved roster situation. Ed Howard has been quite high on prospect lists ever since the Cubs picked him 16th overall in 2020. He's steadily climbed the organization ladder and starts the season as the 4th-ranked prospect in the system and 94th overall. His first go-round in full season ball was a clear success (.283/.345/.443 with 22 SBs) and he earned a late-season promotion to High-A where he swiped 8 bags in 53 PAs. Our scout thinks he's ready for Double A and he'll open the season at Tennessee. Ceiling here isn't particularly prolific, but he's looking like a safe bet to be an average regular in the bigs. Shortstop  Tim Anderson will open the season hitting second in the lineup between Corbin Carroll and Michael Busch. Ideally, the Carroll/Anderson duo provides the dynamism we've long lacked at the top of the order. Amaya is the starter at 2B but can slide over to play above-average defense at short. Bautista and Kessinger profile better at 2B. Jeison Guzman has been the best infield defender in the system since arriving from Kansas City in 2021 in the Dylan Floro trade. He's struggled to stay healthy and barely played in 2023, but brings 60+ defensive ratings across the board (70 DP, 60 range), though the bat is objectively horrible. Third Base  Nolan Arenado will be hard-pressed to replicate last season's MVP-caliber campaign, but I suspect he'll benefit from hitting behind on-base prodigy Busch. Orlando Martinez and Willson Contreras hitting behind him also keeps opposing pitchers from pitching around him in the lineup. This is the final mutually-guaranteed year of his deal ($35.5M) and he could opt out at the end of the season. Another season without a Playoff appearance might lead him to seek greener pastures. Of the hybrid prospects at Double A, Frank Herrera has the best chance to eventually make it to Wrigley. The Royals signed him in 2017 as a twitchy, switch-hitting 16-year old out of Venezuela. He signed with us in the 2021 offseason and put up middling numbers in 2022, but broke out in 2023 and reached Double A late in the season. He just turned 23 and still has some remaining plate discipline projection. Very solid defender on the corners (55 at 3B; 70 at 1B), but it's unlikely he hits for enough power to stick as a regular at those positions. He'll play at least part of the season at Tennessee. I think he's the most underrated prospect in the system (borderline top 30) and there's some Sheldon Neuse-ish vibes here. Nestor Heredia (73rd ranked) and Luis Andujar (86th ranked) are just AA/AAA organizational depth. Center Fielders  Corbin Carroll checks every box as a prototypical leadoff hitter. We're taking some risk handing him the keys to CF and the leadoff spot on day one, but all signs point to him being ready for the job. ZIPS projects 2.6 WAR and a 106 OPS+. Jahmai Jones "beat out" Jimmy Herron for the backup job solely because he's out of options and can pitch in occasionally at second base. Herron settled into a groove late last season and finished with a 110 wRC+. He has nothing to prove at AAA and will inevitably be back at Wrigley sooner rather than later. D.J. Artis has been in the system since 2018 (7th round pick out of Liberty) but has been snake-bitten by a never-ending litany of injuries. His physical stature and playing style is identical to Tony Kemp, but he lacks the zip in Kemp's bat. He grinds out at-bats and gets on base (10-12% BB rate two consecutive seasons at Double A) but hasn't posted an ISO above .100 since 2019. Decent upper minors outfield depth piece, but nothing more. Despite his well-publicized struggles, Brennen Davis still attracted substantial trade interest during the offseason (Baltimore initially asked for him in the Polanco trade). At 24, he's not yet a lost cause, but with just a 35 grade, it's truly make-or-break this season. His elite defense in the corner outfield spots keeps him in the conversation. Luke Boyers is a low-variance guy who we picked in the second round last season out of TCU and signed for a paltry $200K. We valued him as the best defensive outfielder in the Draft and he swiped 73 bases in his final two collegiate seasons. His advanced glove allowed him to start his career in South Bend, where he hit .298/.386/.437 (123 wRC+) with a 10% BB rate and 23% K rate. He's getting close to maxing out ratings-wise and hits the ball on the ground too frequently to be an impact bat, but he could reach Wrigley by late summer if things go well. Realistically, we wanted more of a ceiling from a second round pick, but Boyers should carve out a long career. Currently our 13th-ranked prospect. Ryan McKenna was high on some Baltimore prospect lists a few years ago but washed out of the system following 2022. We signed him ahead of 2023 and he turned in a "meh" 91 wRC+ at Tennessee. Horrible bat with an above-average glove. Corner Outfielders  Orlando Martinez is an in-season extension candidate after busting out with a 122 wRC+ in his first full major league season. Very strong defender in the corners but was forced to bat out of position in the cleanup spot. Walked at a 10.8% clip and only struck out 17% of the time. The ceiling isn't exciting, but he could approach last season's 2.7 WAR output. We re-signed Andrew McCutchen for his clubhouse leadership and acumen against LHP. He'll slot into LF or DH against lefties, and could return to leadoff duties depending on Carroll's production. Jacob Sanford was our most controversial exclusion on the opening day roster, but the lineup needed a little more thump at the bottom against RHP. He's going to strike out at a 30% rate, but the power might be sufficient to compensate. ZIPS projects a .235 ISO and .730 OPS. I'd take that in a heartbeat. He has two remaining minor league options and might find himself on the Iowa-to-Wrigley conveyor belt. I wrote about David Dahl earlier in the post. He could be totally cooked, but it was worth the risk-free flier. Jordan Nwogu was the third round pick in 2020 out of Michigan, but was far more raw than a typical early round college outfielder. He's been a slow-developing project and is going to be cringeworthy in the outfield, but he held his own in Iowa following a mid-season promotion (.254/.312/.410) with a doable 25% K rate. My scout thinks he could to get to 60 in-game power (current 55) and his plate discipline is still improving. He's on the 40-man now and could solidify his future with a big year at Iowa. Nelson Velasquez has been around forever (5th round pick in 2017 out of Puerto Rico) and lit Double A on fire over the first few months in 2023 (.318 ISO, 134 wRC+). He's directly competing with Nwogu for a future spot on the big league roster, and while Nwogu is on the 40-man, Velasquez is the superior defender (which isn't saying much). He's a passable 50-55 in LF. His strikeout rate exploded upon a mid-season promotion to Iowa, fanning an outrageous 35.5%. That number needs to get down to around 30% (or a tad lower) for him to be a viable big leaguer. The Double A Tennessee outfield will be the main attraction in the system (at least at the start of the season) with three of our top 15 prospects and in the top 400 in baseball. We picked Chase Davis out of the U of Arizona in the fifth round in 2023, three rounds after another college OF, Luke Boyers. Davis has top-shelf (70) speed and set school records for stolen bases while showing emerging power. His in-game power is currently a 50 with upside to 60, but like many toolsed-up outfielders, contact is an issue. He struck out 25.8% at Myrtle Beach (just 5.5% BB rate) but pulverized pitching with a .262 ISO (14 HRs in 63 games). Despite his speed, he profiles as an above-average corner OF rather than CF with an elite arm (65) that likely plays best in RF. We're going to challenge him with an aggressive assignment to Double A, skipping High A entirely. Yohendrick Pinango signed as a 16 year-old in 2018 out of Venezuela and has flown through the system, reaching AA at 21. This is an exceptionally unique profile. He's a stocky 5'10, 175 with a career walk rate of 14.2% and K rate of 11.2%. He's a fringy defender but runs fairly well, swiping 29 bags last season between South Bend and Tennessee. After spending the second half of last season at AA, he'll return there this year with an opportunity to establish himself as a future regular, though my scout thinks he's damn close to a finished product already despite his youth. Ryder Green is a narrow notch below Davis and Pinango after coming over from the Yankees in the Kohl Franklin deal in December. Like Davis, he has a cannon of an arm (65) but my scout hasn't had a chance to fully evaluate him. He's been a slow developer (unsurprising for a HS outfielder) and needs to break out this season a 24-year old in Double A. Cole Roederer was the organization's second round pick in 2018 but looks destined for a ceiling in Triple A and is probably maxed-out developmentally. He's the 45th-ranked org prospect. We scooped Diego Infante off of the scrap heap in the winter of 2022 after six years in the Tampa organization. He didn't get much playing time last season but looks like standard fare in the 35-40 FV range (64th-ranked org prospect). Up Next: Pitching Preview |
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05-01-2022, 12:55 PM
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#56 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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2024 Pitching Preview and Lineup Construction
I've held off mentioning one particular pitcher to this point, and he might just be the key to our 2024 season. Read more below on Christian Little, our first round pick (15th overall) in the 2023 Draft and the second player in the class to reach the bigs.
Starting Pitchers (40-Man)  Aaron Nola gets the nod as the opening day starter ahead of Clayton Kershaw, who my scout thinks is a frightening 40 overall after last season's elbow problems. It pains me to say, but he might be cooked. The aforementioned Christian Little arrived at Vanderbilt as a 17-year old and dominated SEC competition. As a Draft-eligible sophomore, we drafted him a few days before his 20th birthday and he sailed three through levels last season, starting 15 games and pitching 81 innings between Myrtle, South Bend, and Tennessee (3.11 FIP, 28% K rate, 9% BB rate). My scout thinks he's a current 55 with 70 upside. With four high-level pitches (including a 75 grade change) and a fastball sitting 95-97, this is the front-end starter we've been searching for. He's skipping AAA and opening the season in the bigs. Sean Manaea is a known commodity and slots in as the fourth guy. We don't need a fifth starter until the third week of the season, at which point it'll be either Jalen Beeks or Kyle Wright, the latter of whom is out of options. I wanted Jordan Wicks to win a rotation job out of camp, but there was no justification for keeping him over Beeks. His command needs additional refinement, though my scout is pessimistic regarding the long-term outlook (40+ FV). Wicks or Cory Abbott would be the first starter up from Iowa. Abbott won the AAA East Cy Young award last season despite spending almost half of the season in the majors. Nick Fanti has never gotten a big league shot but grades out similarly to Abbott. With two minor league options remaining, he'll be around for awhile. Alfredo Garcia was acquired from the Yankees in the Kohl Franklin deal and might be able to stick as an up-and-down 5 inning starter thanks to a devastating (75) changeup. He's our 24th-ranked prospect. Relief Pitchers (40 Man)  I've previously written about all of these guys. The hardest call was sending Mason Fox to Iowa to start the season. It's hard to pinpoint his struggles last year as a Rule 5 pick. He has a stupefying two-pitch combo (65 fastball; 80 curveball) and 75 grade stuff, but his 40 command reared its ugly head many times during 2023. My scout thinks he's a current 55 with 60 upside, but with this season's Rule 5 pick Jack Little ahead of Fox developmentally, Fox was the odd man out. Recent acquisition Zach Willeman will inevitably be up this year and can pitch in various roles thanks to 45 stamina. We acquired Willy Collado from San Diego last July for Josh Van Meter. His stuff is fringy (45), but with 60 movement and 60 command (and a career 58% ground ball rate), he'll be a useable piece over the next few seasons. Projected Lineups 
Last edited by JAF373; 05-01-2022 at 01:01 PM. |
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05-03-2022, 12:39 AM
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#57 |
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Minors (Triple A)
Join Date: May 2020
Posts: 256
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Kershaw Retiring at End of Season; Cubs Treading Water
May 10, 2024
Plenty to discuss, but the major news in the first month of the season is Clayton Kershaw's retirement announcement. CK is a prideful dude, and he knew he was a shell of himself after last season's elbow woes. Our preseason scouting concurred, grading him an overall 40 with 40 stuff and two 35 grade pitches. In five starts, he's fanned just 9.8% of hitters, the lowest mark of any starting pitcher. Miraculously, he's avoided getting blown up thanks to 65 control, but his ground ball rate has plummeted from 60% to 38%. It's a matter of time before he gets pummeled, but it appears he's planning to finish out this season. Barring a miraculous turnaround, we might have to consider an otherwise unthinkable DFA. Fortunately, as bad as it's been for him in Chicago, it could've been worse if we gave him more than a two-year contract. Two transactions of note: 04/11/22: Acquired RHP Melvin Jimenez from LA Dodgers for UTIL Chase Strumpf The organization selected Strumpf, 26, in the 2019 second round out of UCLA but he only reached Double A for the first time last season. His primary calling card is experience at six different positions, but he's not particularly adept at any of them. Our scout bills him a 30+ with a bit of remaining projection, but we had no use for him at Tennessee. The Dodgers were the only interested suitor, presumably due to their longstanding organizational love for multi-position flexibility. Jimenez, 24, comes with an unusual profile. He's a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher with 70 movement and just mediocre stuff (50) and control (45). He signed with the Dodgers in 2015 as a 16-year-old out of the DR and put up prolific strikeout rates at the lower levels, including a 31% clip in 2022 at Low-A. He leveled off last season at High-A (19% K/10% BB) but maintained a 58% ground ball rate. With three plus pitches (60 fastball, 65 curve, 65 change) he's a candidate to be added to the Rule 5 in the offseason if he produces at Tennessee and is presently our 61st-ranked prospect.  04/13/24: Claimed RHP David McKay off of waivers from Detroit McKay, 29, spent nearly five seasons with Detroit, bouncing between AAA Toledo and the big leagues. He spent all of 2023 at AAA and scuffled through a difficult season. He was among the last few cuts from the opening day roster and was out of options. Of course, as always, there were quite a few players on the wire on opening day, and I didn't think we needed another reliever. But upon reconsideration, I felt his 70 grade stuff and three electric pitches (65 fastball, 75 slider, 70 changeup) could help us in a limited role. Good return thus far in a limited 9.2 inning sample (28.2% K, 12.2% BB) with a 0.93 FIP and 3.96 ERA. He's making the vet minimum and won't be arb-eligible for at least another season, though he also could find himself back on the waiver wire. Low-risk, cheap add here.   Starting Pitching  Already discussed Kershaw's woes. That 3.86 ERA is pure smoke-and-mirrors as indicated by the 5.20 SIERA. Nola has mixed in three dominant starts with two average outings. Certainly giving us everything we hoped for thus far. Little fired a complete game, 14K magnum opus in his third start. He's been an innings-devouring horse thus far, pitching 115 or more pitches twice and 100 pitches three times. The 59% ground ball rate is phenomenal (as is the 8% BB rate at 20 years old). Pretty standard stuff from Manaea , whose homer rates have spiked in the last few years but mitigates the damage by keeping his walk rates low. The other big story - along with Little - is Kyle Wright's dominance through the first month. A waiver wire claim at the end of last season, his 29.3% K rate would be a career-best number, and it doesn't appear to be a fluke based upon the advanced metrics. Maybe, just maybe, we've found something here with the late-late-late post-hype breakout...? Relief Pitching  Ehh, kind of a mess thus far, but it's early. Jalen Beeks, whose career has been marred by serious arm and shoulder injuries, is done for the season. It's a miracle he stayed healthy throughout 2023. Great return for a cheap waiver claim. Depth takes a hit, but I think we have enough at AAA to compensate. Tyler Rogers is down for another week or two, but the aforementioned David McKay addition obviates any concern there. Mason Fox is back up within the last week after opening the season at Iowa. Otherwise, these are extremely small samples that don't warrant an overreaction. Hitters  Incredible production thus far from Andrew McCutchen and Brian Anderson, both of whom have pulverized lefties and lengthened the lineup well beyond what we had last year. I mentioned the need for a quasi-bounce back from Willson Contreras, and thus far, he has obliged. Tim Anderson and Corbin Carroll have been electrifying at the top of the order...but Nolan Arenado suffered through a brutal April and couldn't take advantage. He'll come around. There's nothing to indicate a problem and the .208 BABIP points to some bad luck. Jacob Sanford is doing his normal thing. Way above-average power and not a single walk in 53 PAs. If he maintains the power, I can live with it as a 9-hole hitter with solid defense in LF. Anthony Rizzo is still getting destroyed by shifts and BABIP (.122). He's putting the ball in play (12% K rate, 7% BB rate) but it's constantly right into the teeth of the defense. I wish there was a solution, but I'm hard-pressed to find it. Despite an atrocious April, it's still too early to give up on Jacob Amaya, though we did send him to Iowa today for a reset. He's the highest-rated defender on the team, but we called up offseason acquisition Will Wilson (our #11) prospect to take over the starting second base job. Wilson has raked thus far at Iowa (.430 wOBA, 156 wRC+) in 88 PAs and I'm hopeful that his bat can outweigh the loss of Amaya's elite glove. Jahmai Jones has occasionally filled in at second and will likely continue to do so (along with periodic pinch running cameos). 
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