Life is Full of Ups and Downs in the Otis Association

[luckymann]

We lose Kmerce Kmet for the duration in the final game of the regular season and call up Rick Colbert to fill the spot.

Boston Red Sox (LOBBY) v Toronto Blue Jays (BASE)
Best-of-five, Red Sox with the home-field advantage.

Game 1 in Boston - September 25th, 1990

Game 2 in Boston - September 26th, 1990

Game 3 in Toronto - September 28th, 1990

Boston wins series 3-0

[luckymann]

New York Yankees (PENT) v Boston Red Sox (LOBBY)
Best-of-seven, Red Sox with the home-field advantage.

Game 1 in Boston - September 30th, 1990

Game 2 in Boston - October 1st, 1990

One of the most ridiculous games I've ever seen. The Sox score 3 in the 9th to send it into extras, then both teams score a run in the 10th, then exchange a deuce in the 14th. It stays 7-7 until the 22nd, when the Yanks finally put it away with an unanswered three-spot.

Game 3 in New York - October 3rd, 1990

Game 4 in New York - October 4th, 1990

Game 5 in New York - October 5th, 1990

New York wins series 4-1 [1]

NB Yes, I am aware of the anomalous home-field advantage and am investigating further. Fortunately, it mattered not this time. Also, it's a bit of a bummer the usual pages and elements of post-season play EG an MVP aren't incorporated here.

[luckymann]

The happenstance of those juicy high Draft picks and a fair bit of beginner's luck had as much to do with our immediate success as any particular skill on my part. Whatever the case, we have put together a nifty little squad full of leaders and guys seemingly hell-bent on getting the maximum out of their baseball talents, with a really strong mix of all the elements I like: high contact, decent pop, strong defence and good wheels, and are off to try our luck back up in the Skylobby League.

But, the question begs, are we going to be good enough to remain there?

To answer this, I'm going to take you on a brief digression into my thoughts on how to achieve the sort of sustained success that is acceptable to the people who pay the bills - above all, my salary.

For mine, the key to this type of structure is fairly straightforward: recognise your station within the hierarchy.

Where does the Blue Jays franchise sit in this regard? In the mid-to-upper tier of the Skylobby, by my reckoning. Our budgetary range is somewhere around the $50-80 million mark, as things currently stand. The Cards, with $80m at their disposal, had the highest budget of all Skylobby teams in the season just completed; the Rockies, with $55m, the lowest.

Now there is a huge difference between recognising and accepting your station in the Otis Association. Achieving a sustainable upward paradigm shift is what this is all about. Falling on either side of this "bell curve" is where the danger lies. You need to be patient, happy to consolidate at your "proper" level for a bit, all the while strategising how to achive the upward shift I mention in a way that, when you make the jump, you are ready for the consequences - playing against richer clubs with deeper pockets and stronger rosters than you have. Not just playing against them, mind you, but holding your own against them.

Now I understand that I'm fairly new to all this, which makes these ideas somewhat formative. But I am a logician, a tactician, by nature. And, while some aspects of what I have just said may morph and evolve over time, the underlying gist should hold true. More importantly, it will to some degree compensate for whatever lack of innate baseball intellect I may suffer from.

Okay, so let's look at our performance in 1990 with a focus on what needs to change for 1991 and beyond.

Pretty solid metrics across the board here. If I'm going to nitpick, we still need to be more patient at the plate (most strikeouts / 8th in walks) and could do with some defensive tightening.

BATS

The one player who stands out in a negative offensive context here is Carl Armstrong. He is our skipper, however, and therefore an integral part of our mix. He's also near-elite at 2B/3B/SS. But it is clear he is more of a backup utility type than a starter.

We knew what we were getting when we acquired Eugene Clough: the trade-off of low contact for big bop. Still, he'll either need to hit higher than 208 or whack more than 19 out from here on in. I'm not saying he's at risk of being traded, just that he's at risk of losing his starting role.

We'll talk more about Alex DeGoti a bit later on.

Other than that, we're looking good.

SHOPPING LIST: Upgrade at 3B a must.

BALLS

In Dave Fleming, we have one of the brightest pitching prospects in the entire OA. But there's a bit of a dropoff from there that we'll need to look deeply into. Ed Galasso was superb and should win Pitcher of the Year. Mike Witt needs to be more consistent. Ger Thomas was impressive in his rookie season but I remain uncertain of his ability to take the next step. Neck Stanley's future with us undoubtedly lies in a swingman role.

I've not seen a more commanding relief performance than the one Rawly Eastwick gave us after coming over from the Cubs. He truly was lights out with 25 saves from 26 chances.

The rest surprised to the upside for the most part, as their 2nd-ranked 3.75 ERA shows. But this is another world up in the Skylobby and again I'm just not sure some of them are quite good enough to handle the rise in class. It is a somewhat odd feature of the OA that relievers are super expensive, so we're going to have to be most astute with our purchases in this part of the squad because we're only going to be able to afford a couple of high-end guys.

SHOPPING LIST: Setup men from both sides.

GLOVES

OK, so back to Alex DeGoti. Love the guy. Few work harder at their game or play it with more gusto. But... that -18.4 ZR is a real blot on his copybook. Admittedly we had him playing at his less-favoured SS rather than 2B, where Juan Silverio is established, but if we don't see some improvement from him next season, we'll almost certainly have to act. And, with various others in the squad able to offer decent enough utility value at each of his positions, if he goes, he goes.

Our OF isn't strong from the glove perspective, with LF Jay Wright, CF Denzel Clarke and RF Vic Ramirez combining for a negative 10 ZR. But their bats are why they're there and we just have to wear that. Plus, DC and Vic are rookies and hopefully have some improvement in them.

SHOPPING LIST: Ticket taken and wandering the middle IF aisle.

WINGS

If you harken back to one of my earliest posts after taking the Blue Jay reins, you'll remember that we are in the outhouse for Draft picks this time around. So what we've got is all we've got for now at least.

And what we got outside of what you've seen ain't great.

Still, we'll keep working away with them and you just never know what might happen.

With regard to mature-age minor-leaguers in our system, OF Cedric Mullins and IF Chris Shaddy are the pick of the position players, while pitchers Bill Bernier, Julian Morgan and Rick Fornay - who struggled at the MLB level for us this season - are those with some claims on getting the call-up. RF / DH-type Hank Beasley has me fascinated - there's just something about him that suggests a far better player than we've seen so far. He is being closely attended to, so that we might unearth this inner stud.

[luckymann]

My first job for the offseason is, of course, arbitration. We only have three up, and treat them as follows:

• P David Lawson $500k
• P Jason Motte NON-TENDER
• P Charles Smith $450k

We get the favourable ruling on Lawson, while Smith accepts our offer pre-hearing.

Our PC Ricardo Nieves informs me he has been offered a job with the Angels. At 59, I was leaning toward letting him go at the end of his current contract anyway. So we wish him well and replace him with Brandon Pryor.

Next, I have my end-of-season meeting with Owner Mark Shapiro. It is, as you'd expect given the circumstances, a cordial meeting full of positive spin and general good cheer, from which the following ensues:

The budget is, to say the least, a nice surprise. With our current payroll sitting at around $30m, it gives us plenty of flash cash. But, once again, I’ll be treating this most conservatively to try and ensure we’re covered moving forward.

The FAs declare at the end of October and we get busy.

Our first offer is to OA newcomer Scott Kingery. Scott is exactly the type of 3B we're after - a good combination of offensive prowess and defensive flair. Not sure he'll win Gold Gloves, but he more than capably holds down 3B/SS and CF. He should also hit a ton. I foresee the price jumping from the 3-year / $5.8m opening play, but hopefully not by too much. Hot prospects Phil Rizzuto and Mike Anderson also among the crop of new players and hopefully they'll keep the big guns busy trying while leaving Scott alone. As a bit of a smoke-bomb ploy, we also make a lowball offer for Cameron that we are sure has no chance of flying. Then again, if it does then we've got ourselves a bargain - if, that is, you can call $22.5m for 3 years a "bargain".

We move onto the pitchers next, with a reasonably-priced quality SP and two setup guys on the agenda. With lefty RPs a bit thin on the ground, moving Neck Stanley out of the spin and into the LH setup role is becoming more and more appealing, something I keep in mind as we make the following offers:

• RHP Aaron Romasco, 28: 3-year / $1.45m
• LHP Jim Burton, 29: 1-year / $1.2m
• RHP Jarrod Parker, 22: 3-year / $8.5m
• RHP Mark Clear, 23: 3-year / $7.8m

Surprisingly, Kingery is the first one to sign up, with no further negotiation necessary. Nice! Then Romasco and Burton also hop aboard, leaving just Parker and Clear - who are both proving elusive - still to be locked down by the time the Draft rolls around.

Here's how these new additions look on paper:

In clearing some 40-man room ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, we lose Christian Torres on waivers to the Padres. No biggie. Same goes with Nelly Cana and David Christianson in the R5 itself, both of whom I reckon are a decent chance of finding their way back to us at some point.

Mark Clear eventually signs at the rate mentioned above. Jarrod Parker continues to hold out for more $$ and we make one final pitch to him at 3/$9.5. Finally, in early January, he signs on.

That's us done for now.

Phil Rizzuto signs with the Tigers for 3/$27.6m, Mike Anderson with the Cards for 3/$29.7m. In another life, I'd have liked Mike on my squad but for now I remain tentative to make those massive commitments. Eventually, however, I'm going to need to shake that off like a poor sign from a catcher.

[luckymann]

I won’t lie to you, with our low picks I delegated responsibility for the Draft to the Scouting Director with a few general thoughts on what to look for and nothing more.

He selected the following players:

• 101: OF David Castillo, 19
• 130: P Joe Penland, 23
• 141: P Michael Mader, 22
• 160: P Michael Sorrow, 22
• 161: P Lester Granley, 24
• 180: OF Matthew Hellman, 23

My first impression was to think he’d gone to the wrong Draft. I was not expecting as good a player as Castillo to still be around after a hundred picks. The pitchers are all fairly handy types certainly not the filler I thought he’d be bringing home and even Lucky Last pick Matt Hellman will be of service, albeit with AAA his ceiling.

A pleasant surprise indeed.

One for the trivia buffs: two of the first three picks were named Orin.

[luckymann]

The good times keep a-rollin’ as Mark Shapiro gives us another $2m to make our budget now $81m, equal top in the Skylobby with the Cards.

There are two distinct schools of thought on how best to treat rookie free-agents, revolving respectively around the money spent on them and their relative inexperience at the major-league level. I’m firmly of the belief that the retrospective assessment of such acquisitions needs to be made over their entirety, not in Year 1. If you rush a guy because he’s on big freight and ruin him, the whole stake is lost, whereas if you delay their entry into the top flight and they turn out to have been ready for it from the get-go, you only lose a bit of opportunity cost. So, I almost invariably deploy them accordingly. In this case, Kingery, Parker and Clear go straight to the top; the rest start at Buffalo.

Aside from that, it is all about getting the mix right.

I also want Burton and Romasco at Toronto, which means four spots need to be cleared in our staff. Bill Robertson refuses to be demoted, as is his right. We trade him away, as is ours, to the Brewers for a super catching prospect by the name of Mitchell Ashmore.

In tidying up the rest of our organisation to fit it within the various strictures, we also manage to acquire a fine-looking OF prospect, Tony Venzon, even though we are full to bursting there. He also plays 3B, so I’ve asked the Manager at Buffalo to play him there for the majority and we’ll just see what happens.

We go 8-4 in Spring Training, with just a slight injury to Mike Witt coming out of it early on. He'll be back in a couple days.

As this unfolds, we make the final decisions on the makeup of our squad. They are as follows:

BATS

The immediate observation is how the step up in grade has resulted in some of our guys' ratings taking a serious hit, most notably Michael Kmet. Certainly bears watching as to how they handle facing better pitchers with better defences behind them.

That said, I still feel this is a really strong squad that will for the most part hold its own in the Skylobby.

BALLS

A bit more class and heft to it than at the corresponding point a year ago, and hopefully a host of blue sky from here. Witt, as I said, to return. I let JG make the deployment decisions for the most part, although as you can see I'm making him use Neck Stanley from the BP. From what I can gather, Ger Thomas will move into the pen when Witt is activated, and I'll almost certainly send Ern Gause or maybe Charlie Smith to AAA. Despite Rawly Eastwick's superb performance as Closer last year, we're going with Romasco in that role.

GLOVES

Good coverage around the diamond again. JG wants to stick with Carl Armstrong at 3B and Al DeGoti at SS, relegating Kingery to the pine. I think it's a good way to start - let the heat come out a bit and reassess a couple months in. Juan Silverio is probably the one in most danger of losing his starting spot, should his form with the bat not be where we need it.

POCKETS

A little window into my fairly analog way of keeping track of things all in the one spot.

Our official payroll as at OD is $35.4m, 9th in the Penthouse. I doubt it will be that low by the time of the 81 report, but will be overjoyed if it is because that means things are going swimmingly.

WINGS

All looking solid enough here. Nice to see the two most recent gets - Venzon and Ashmore - creeping into the Top 100, although I'm surprised Castillo is as low as he is.

HEARTS & MINDS

A year on and with less turnover as time progressed, the group seems to have formed into a pretty tight unit. Our new PC is a bit of a moody and broody type, so we'll need to keep an eye on how the staff cohesion goes over the course of the season.


The pundits are picking us to give the Nats a run for their money at the promotion end of the table, with Vic Ramirez and Dave Fleming the players they are expecting most from among our lads.

The boss and I are on the same page with our expectations: a winning record and noticeable improvement among the playing group.

Really eager to see how our boys acquit themselves - Go Jays!

[luckymann]

The two NY teams are set for a tight battle at the very pointy end, with BNN tipping the Yanks will just get past their cross city rivals in the Penthouse, while they see Atlanta and Detroit under threat of relegation. Gerald McNab needs just 49 ribbies to become the first to reach the 1000 mark, while 19 wins will get Leniel Hooker to 200. Koby Clemens got the call-up to the Dodgers big club last season and has kept his spot, meaning him and Rocket are playing together again. Not sure why, given he has been more than serviceable in both '89 and '90 with a combined 2.5 bWAR, but Kody is starting the year at Texas' AAA Round Rock club.

Meanwhile, in our old 'hood, the Snakes are tipped to be amongst it at the end, although it is the Reds who are seen as the prime candidate for promotion back to the Skylobby for the first time since being relegated in 1986. KC's James Lamay needs 10 wins to become the Basement's all-time leader, a spot currently held by Walter Seaman with 79. His Royals are the pick for Gimp Room duties this time around.

[luckymann]

In his first start back from the IL, Mike Witt goes down again - this time he'll be out 6 weeks with a biceps strain.

After discussing it with JG, Neck Stanley goes into the spin with Ger Thomas staying in the pen. Rather than recall Gause, we give Don Douglas the call, which means Gause has to exit via the WW. On $660k I assume he'll be of little interest, which proves correct.

Meanwhile, JG's decision reaps immediate results:

But, on the negative side of the ledger, we also lose Denzel Clarke for 3 weeks to a hammy strain. Jose Pineda is brought up to replace him, as I resist the urge to see the cut of Dave Castillo's jib just yet.

SIDEBAR: In an effort to increase realism and heighten the challenge, I have the players' injury ratings switched off. This means I have to make the judgement call as to whether someone like Witt - whose proneness to getting hurt is becoming a concern - is flimsily put together or just having an unlucky run with injuries. At $3m per, this is a key assessment to be made. Even more so down the track when we're talking about Oakland money.

[luckymann]

The first no-hitter of the season for the OA, in our league no less, as Cleveland's George Crawford dominates the Cubs - who are off to a slow start once again - in a 9-0 win.

[luckymann]

A fab start to his Toronto tenure for one of our offseason gets.

[luckymann]

Well we're doing OK but certainly finding the going tougher up here in the Skylobby. Our rotation is the main source of our woes and I can't think where we'd be if not for our bullpen, who have been simply magnificent so far, leading the LOBBY with a 1.83 ERA.

I just want to try and upgrade us where possible when possible. I mentioned earlier as 3B being one spot needing this treatment and, with Scott Kingery being used more as an OF, that is still on the cards at some point. But catcher is another spot I just feel we need a bit more polish and class, which this trade hopefully remedies.

It was more Witt's continued struggles with form and health than his salary that made him the primary part of this trade, although cannot be denied that latter point played its part, reducing the nett outlay to $2m-ish. I would have preferred to trade away Benites over Wendling but this was the only option they gave us and so I took it.

Jeff has a career 312/375/438 line with more than 30 bWAR to his name. Only 49 homers lifetime so not much pop to speak of but we've got plenty of noisy bats already, even if some of them have gone deathly silent with the move up.



He's signed thru next season and is on $6.4m for '92, so a big investment for us. Hopefully this gives us a kick in the right direction.

[luckymann]

Another no-hitter, this time in the Penthouse by Houston's Jason Lakman against the BoSox, who are in danger of heading straight back down to the Skylobby if they don't get their act together.

[luckymann]

Well, if reality hasn't exactly bitten then she's certainly been taking a few tentative nibbles around our flanks - picture the first encounter of a hyena cub in the savannah with a wildebeest carcass and you'll get the general idea.

40-41 places us firmly in mid-standings; 8 1/2 games off the lead and, more importantly, 10 1/2 away from relegation.

BATS

Everything kind of OK here aside from the continuation of our poor OBP/BB/K profile. Denzel Clarke had a horror start but has got it going of late. Big acquisition Jeff LaMarr has struggled in his brief time with us (161/278/161, 2 RBI) but hopefully the same will happen for him. Michael Kmet's unbelievable ability to hit triples has continued its uptrend: 19 in 277 AB last season; 23 in 243 here. Not sure how he does it, he's no speedster - just an innate sense for taking the extra base, I guess. More on him in a bit.

The defence has held up OK, especially given our pitch-to-contact tendencies, but remains an area we need to somehow find a way to improve. If Al DeGoti can finish the season with less than -10 ZR, as he is on par to do, I'll consider that a win of sorts.

BALLS

The age-old tale of two halves here: rotation has been terrible, although better in recent weeks (most notably Jarrod parker and Dave Fleming) and we need that to continue because the BP - which has been nothing short of magnificent (top-ranked 2.36 ERA) and without whom we'd be far closer to the poor old Friars than we are - has been used up pretty hard (look at the stats for Eastwick, Smith and Romasco). Last year's star Ed Galasso is gone (see below) after taking a swan dive off baseball's equivalent of the Angel Falls.

While LaMarr's bat has been cold, his presence behind the plate has coincided with our rotation's upswing - an equally-important element of why we got him.

INS, OUTS, UPS, DOWNS

Someone's been a busy boy.

What I wanted was to send Ed and his 6.34 ERA down to Buffalo for a spell to see if he could turn things around, but he refused the assignment. SIDEBAR: I will be disabling this rule from the end of this season - without the ability to explain your reasoning to the player, I don't believe this works at all well and unfairly punishes the club with no recourse available. That left me with two choices: BP or the great beyond - I chose the latter and used this trade to facilitate my next move by acquiring Vern Schmall, who'll be our backup 2B/SS.

A straight up sally dump for a player who had become superfluous to our needs, by dint of which - even with the small retainer - we free up more than $5m over this year and next. With Ger Thomas on the IL, Sturge has joined us while Clingman is at AAA.

Another payroll-driven move with Benites expecting starter money from next season on. I see Kostelac as his equal with both bat and glove, and reckon we can get two years out of him for the price of one of Frank's.

I have also locked down a fair few of our core guys, with details as follows:

• OF Denzel Clarke and IF Tim Torres: both on 1/$1.8m - neither with interest in a longer deal at the moment. Near enough to $8m needed to keep them past '92.
• OF Eugene Clough: 2/$890k - a pretty cheap 4th OF option, even if he has hit for neither average nor much power (6 HR / 21 RBI) in the season to date
• OF Vic Ramirez: 3/$5m
• P Charles Smith: 1/$1.35m - has been sensational again this season after a strong 1990
• IF/OF James Rich: 1/$1.8m - utility value
• 1B Michael Kmet: 1/$1.8m - there's just something about this kid that puts my hair on end in a good way. Contemplated trading him away early on because of his one-dimensionality on D but just couldn't do it. The true test will be next year because, if his form holds, he'll be looking at $4-5m per.

P Jim Burton wants obscene money, so the only question with him is do we cut and run or just let him play out the season and walk. That will all come down to how early we can guarantee survival in the Skylobby. If before the TD, we'll try and recoup; if not, he just goes for nix.

As it currently sits, our projected payroll for '92 is about $44m. We still have $46m free for this year, some of which will be deployed if we need help staying up when teams start chucking expendables up on the block and are willing to offload them for next to nothing. The good old "Warm Body Shuffle".

AAA Buffalo is having a horror year, currently 26-43. In fact, they are on the up after going 3-12 to start the season.

Starette is now with us. A lot of the upward movement for Castillo et al can be attributed to other players passing the prospect threshold.


The boss is somewhat nonplus at our record, but for mine this year is all about survival and consolidation. Everything else is cream, baby.

[luckymann]

PENTHOUSE





SKYLOBBY





BASEMENT

Go A's!!

[luckymann]

The lads have come out firing since the halfway mark and, while it has been Vic Ramirez deservedly getting most of the plaudits, it takes many men to move a mountain and even backup guys like Jimmy Rich here are helping us do so.

[luckymann]

Well, it's a nice problem to have I guess. Jim Burton - signed on a 1-year $1.2m deal for this season - has proven to be an absolute bargain. Sadly however, as I mentioned in the 81 report, this has pretty much priced him out for a re-up. Our first discussion early in the season yielded an indication of in the vicinity of $4m per. Norman Einstein here (the same guy who signed him for only one year...) decided to hold off and see how things played out for a while. So good has his performance been in the time intervening that, when we last sat down, that price had increased by near enough to 50% - $6m per and way above what I'd be willing to pay for him.

Then he goes and does this. It's been nice Jimbo; we'll always have Toronto.

[luckymann]

Cincy are embroiled in a fierce promotion battle in the Basement with Oakland and Arizona, and this is a timely reminder of just what they are capable of, thrashing the Marlins 17-1 as David Kwiatkowski has just the third 4-homer game in OA history.

[luckymann]

Not the best timing with us surprisingly in a fight for promotion, but on the bright side it gives us a chance to test out one of our prospects blocked at AAA Buffalo. Plus, I'm not sure we're quite ready for the big boys. That doesn't mean we won't be making every effort to test the theorem, though.

EDIT: Make that men down...

[luckymann]

After one final negotiation on the eve of the Trade Deadline that is really nothing more than a polite going through the motions, we ship Jim Burton out to the 'Stros for a couple cheap guys who might just give us something down the track.

Jim's demands for the next two seasons had actually ballooned to $12m+ and, while we are able to pay that sort of money I just don't believe he's the guy I want to be spending it on.

Tom plays 1B and a barely acceptable catcher in addition to CF and was selected in mind purely for the eventuation of Kmerce Kmet not being with us much longer. Daniel, a middle IF, has hit over 300 in limited ops up in the bigs, which is well above his scouting projections. For now, both will start at AAA. Rick Forney gets the call-up to replace Jim.

[luckymann]

We'll speak at length about Vic Ramirez after the season is done, but this gives you a fairly decent insight into how things have been going for him.