Ruben "Streak" Souffront and the Denver Brewers

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers salvage one game in the series with Oklahoma City and at least avoid getting swept. Cheol-han Lee isn't at his sharpest but he is good enough that with a little run support he gets his second win with the Brewers to improve to 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA.
Ryan Rodgers (.373/.464/.444) continues to have a great season.
Antonio Puente (.261/.373/.479), who has cooled down a bit since his strong start to the season, had a good game and hit his 7th HR. He is on pace for his best season since 1966, and possibly his best season yet.
But let's talk about Pat Rondeau. Granted it is still a small sample size, but while Rondeau continues to impress both in the field, on the base paths, and with the bat, the most surprising and impressive thing about his season so far is that he has a .402 OBP. Not likely sustainable but it is a great start to the season and hopefully is a sign of some maturation as a hitter.
(And with Ruben Souffront continuing to have a horrible season- .204/.265/.282- Rondeau is certainly pushing him for playing time.)
(I don't have the heart to talk about Souffront right now. But suffice it to say that serious thoughts are being considered in the Brewers front-office, given especially the depth of outfield talent in the organization and even the emergence of Andrew Kennedy as a major league hitter, that Souffront, as beloved as he is by management, might end up needing to find his destiny elsewhere.)

[BirdWatcher]

A few notes about Harry Lyerly (yes, I know I've become a little obsessed with this guy): he is best in the MGL (second best in the WPK behind reliever Jamel McNeil, who has pitched enough innings to qualify and has an 11.9/9 IP K rate) in K/9 IP, is 2nd in the MGL in K's total (with 3 fewer games started then the man ahead of him), tied for 1st in shutouts with 2, 7th in K to BB ratio.

But mostly what impresses me is that with 25 major league starts now, Lyerly's FIP is 2.85 and his FIP- is 78. Still a small sample size yes, but getting less small all the time. And staying pretty constant so far over 2 seasons.

Is he for real?
The advanced statistical evidence seems to suggest he just might be.

[BirdWatcher]

It was a very difficult decision for the Brewers management team to make, but it was decided today to send Ruben Souffront down to AAA Chester to clear his head and hopefully re-find his hitting stroke.
James Jackson was brought up to take his spot on the roster. Pat Rondeau will be taking over the lion's share of rightfield duties at this point. Rondeau has earned the opportunity with his potent bat this season and as always Rondeau is a tremendous fielder (a definite upgrade over Souffront in this area). Rondeau is also very nearly Souffront's equal as a base-stealer and base-runner.
Jackson provides the team with a little needed righthanded power off the bench and is a solid fielder on the corners in the outfield.

Only time will tell how long it will be before Souffront returns to the Brewers or what his future with the organization looks like.

[BirdWatcher]

And once again, when the slumping Brewers need it the most, Harry Lyerly gives them a strong start and another win.
Lyerly was near perfect early on, striking out 6 batters through 3 innings, giving up his first hit in the 4th while also racking up 2 more K's to get to 8 through just 4 innings pitched. He then struck out the side in the 5th inning. He did not allow a run until the the 7th inning when Portland superstar Andy Wilson led off with a solo HR. Lyerly would allow a double to young rising star Chris Tobin immediately after that but got the next 3 batters pretty easily to limit the damage. His first and only walk allowed in the game with one out in the 8th was followed by a run-scoring triple but he then got the last batter he would face to fly out to shallow left, keeping the runner at third.
David Brown came on to face the ever dangerous Wilson who he struck out to strand the runner.
While the Brewers would break it open after Lyerly left the game by scoring 5 runs in the bottom of the frame, it was Lyerly's gutsy pitching which kept them in the game and gave them the opportunity for the win.

Lyerly, who recorded double digit strikeouts for the first time in the 1970 season (13) while walking just the one batter, improves to 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA. (Lyerly also drove in the 4th Brewer run of the game with a 6th inning single.)

Meanwhile shortstop Chad Brown (.338/.366/.428) continues his hot hitting as does Pat Rondeau (.338/.418,.412), who continues to draw more walks then expected and is providing a nice spark to the offense in the lead-off slot.

[BirdWatcher]

Meanwhile, top pitching prospect Steve Green is having a great season at AAA and looks to be very nearly big league ready.
With veteran Brewers starter Steve Alonso (1-3, 4.36, 1.48 WHIP) having a very poor season at age 33 and Will Smart essentially having been relegated to a long relief role, it appears that the changing of the guard in the starting rotation is inevitably coming soon.
With Lyerly already established as one of our best starters, and Adam Getchell having impressed in his limited chances and faring pretty well currently at AAA Chester, it appears that the future is nearly now.
Should the team continue to struggle and fall further from first place, the more likely the Brewers may give the youngsters a shot at unseating some of the under-performing veterans.

[BirdWatcher]

The Captain, Abel Pennington, gives another strong performance, even though he got himself in trouble with no outs in the 6th inning and needed some help from the 'pen, as the Brewers take 2 of 3 against Portland at home and are hoping that they are getting back to their earlier winning ways.
The Brewers find their power bats in this one as Antonio Puente hits HR #8 for the season, Tanner Yurek #6, and the recently re-called James Jackson provides his first HR of the WPK season, a pinch-hit solo shot in the 8th inning to give the Brewers a nice cushion of victory.

[BirdWatcher]

A solid start from Cheol-han Lee and some more power hitting gives the Brewers their third straight victory and gets them back into a virtual 1st place tie with San Francisco (we have a .600 winning pct., they are at .595.) Antonio Puente and Tanner Yurek seem to be having a friendly teammate rivalry for long balls right now, as Puente hits 9th of the season, a 1st inning 3-run HR, and Yurek follows with a 2-run shot- his 7th HR of the season, in the 3rd inning.

[BirdWatcher]

I think it can fairly be said at this time that veteran starting pitcher Steve Alonso is off to a horrible start to the season.
With the emergence of Harry Lyerly, the steady development of minor league prospect Steve Green as a potential front-line starter, and the good performance thus far in admittedly a small number of starts by Adam Getchell, it is likely that Alonso will be receiving fewer and fewer starts and the team will be looking to fine a way to unload his hefty salary.

[stevem810]

When you get a second can you post the Brewers historical record?

[BirdWatcher]

Originally Posted by stevem810

When you get a second can you post the Brewers historical record?

Sure.
Is this what you had in mind?

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers find themselves tumbling towards .500 and are now in 4th place in the MGL having lost 5 straight and 11 of their last 16 games.
They come off a humiliating 3-game sweep at home at the hands of the Baltimore Lords. The primary culprit has been bad starting pitching, which is a bit of a shock for the team that is normally the best in the league in this area.
After the beating given to Steve Alonso in the first game (reported on above), Abel Pennington, who had been so sharp in his last several outings, was roughed up in just 3 innings pitched, as he allowed 8 runs (5 earned) on 12 hits and the Brewers lost 8-4.
In game 3, with high-priced ace Cheol-han Lee on the mound the Brewers were hopeful they would break their losing streak. Instead, Lee also was shelled, allowing 10 runs (8 earned) on 12 hits over 6 innings pitched and the Brewers fell 11-4.
The Brewers remain 2nd in the league in fewest runs allowed and the bullpen has continued to be very solid, but the starting rotation, which has been the bedrock of the team for the past few seasons, is now 5th in the league in ERA and are becoming a serious concern.
With his last disastrous outing, Steve Alonso has been relegated to the bullpen for now, with Will Smart, having pitched very well in relief for the team of late, regaining a position at the back-end of the rotation.
(Rumor has it that the team even quietly pursued the possibility of trading the veteran righty and found absolutely no takers for the high-priced under-achieving Alonso.)
Next up for the Brewers is a 3-game series in Detroit against the 9th place Falcons and the team is hoping that erstwhile ace Daniel Torres and 22-year old Harry Lyerly, who is emerging as the true ace of the staff, can help the team get back on the winning path against an inferior team.

[BirdWatcher]

Today is the annual first-year (amateur) player draft.
As was the case last season, the Brewers are without a pick in the first round due to a high profile free agent signing (Lee.)
And since veteran catcher Matt Webb remains an unsigned free agent, the Brewers also do not have a pick in the supplemental first round.
In fact, after last years successful season, the Brewers don't have a pick until next to last in round two- which means their first player picked will be the 59th player chosen overall.
And it appears that it is not a very strong draft class, so it is unlikely that any truly promising players will be available to the Brewers with even their first pick.
Given that the Brewers have quite a bit of talent at the top levels of their minor league system (we were ranked the #1 system last year and considered 8th best this year with two of our top prospects from 1969- Lyerly and Adam Getchell- having now played enough in the bigs to no longer qualify for prospect status), the belief is that the philosophy for Denver in this draft will be to focus on younger, more high-risk, toolsy prospects who might eventually develop into major leaguers.

Depending upon what is available with their first pick the thought is that the Brewers could target a more well-developed player out of college with the potential to play a bench role in the next few season on the big league team, but most likely with their middle rounds picks the team will be looking for 18-year olds with good contact (and particularly gap power) potential or young pitchers with solid stuff and very good movement potential. As has always been the case, the Brewers are likely to focus on young position players with great speed and high defensive upside, particularly in up the middle defensive positions, and with an emphasis on finding players with that profile who also display high work ethics and intelligence.
The later rounds will likely see the Brewers using their typical approach, which means targeting players with strong leadership skills who might be good career minor leaguers, including certainly a few college players who likely won't ever make the big leagues but could help their minor league teams to winning seasons now by playing against somewhat lesser developed opponents.

The Brewers scouting staff believes that probably the most talented player in today's draft is an 18-year old centerfielder out of Seattle, Washington named Jose Gutierrez. Gutierrez profiles as a potential 5-tools (edit: well, okay, probably more like 4-tools) player though his power may stall out at near average while his contact potential is considered extremely high. With his potential for an extremely good batting eye, Gutierrez is a young player who many think may eventually be a WPK batting champion with an extremely high OBP. His speed is a real plus though his baserunning abilities are still a bit raw and he is expected to have great range and sure hands in the outfield. His weak arm might eventually necessitate a move to leftfield but if he reaches his potential he could certainly become a superstar once he matures a bit. Perhaps best of all, Gutierrez shows all the indications of being an impact player in the clubhouse as well, a true leader and role model for an organization to build around.
But that organization won't be the Brewers.

The best pitching prospect appears to be 18-year old left-hander Kyle Conley out of Mississippi State. This gives some indication of how shallow the talent pool is this year as Conley is likely a middle of the rotation starter at best.

[BirdWatcher]

And sure enough, with the first pick of the draft the perennial MGL bottom dwelling Charlotte Sting pick Jose Gutierrez.
And with the second pick, the SJL doormats, the El Paso Dawgs, take Kyle Conley.

[BirdWatcher]

With their first pick of the 1970 draft (in the 2nd round, #59 overall) the Brewers select 21-year old outfielder Adam Nelson out of Worcester College.
Nelson is a speedy outfielder with strong defensive skills and plus contact potential. He is not expected to turn into a star and may not develop the skills to be a major league starter, but he has advanced plate discipline and could draw an above average number of walks while striking out infrequently and making consistent contact. He also is given high marks for character, is considered a clubhouse leader who puts team first always.

[BirdWatcher]

With their second pick, in the 3rd round (#79 overall) the Brewers pick another outfielder, this time an 18-year old with 1 year of college ball under his belt- Marty Hodge out of Lubbock Christian College.
Hodge profiles as mostly average across the board though he does have a plus arm and there are some indications that he might turn into an above average power hitter.
Brewer's management is also high on his intangibles and hope that with his apparent high intelligence and strong work ethic he might develop into more than immediately meets the eye.

[stevem810]

Originally Posted by BirdWatcher

Sure.
Is this what you had in mind?

Yeah, wanted to see the progression. Thanks

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers get a pretty good start from Daniel Torres and a few big HR's to win the first game in Detroit and break their 5-game losing streak.
The biggest blow of the game comes off the bat of Andrew Kennedy, as he hit a 3-run HR in the Brewers 5-run 7th inning. (Tanner Yurek contributed his 8th HR of the season to get the scoring started that same inning.)
As the backup firstbaseman and fifth outfielder Kennedy hasn't started a lot of games but he is starting to show why he is highly regarded as a hitter. His two HR's this year are a bit of a surprise as he is noted more for his great contact skills and his ability to hit the ball into the gaps, but not expected to have a great deal of over-the-wall power.
With Bobby Erbakan (.241/.304/.283) struggling at the plate thus far Kennedy may be seeing more starts against right handed pitchers.

[BirdWatcher]

Harry Lyerly tosses his 3rd shutout of the season and he is tied with veteran Miguel Chavez of San Francisco for the MGL lead in that category. Lyerly improves to 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA and at this point is pretty clearly the best starter in the Brewers rotation. In fact, Lyerly is tied for second among pitchers in WAR in the MGL, leads the league in strikeouts and easily in strikeouts per 9 innings pitched (9.4), is 4th in the league in K/BB ratio, and is 1st in FIP.
The kid is good.
And, most surprisingly, he works 9 innings without allowing any HR's, with a few of the Detroit starters prodigious power hitters (Jamison Bash and Nate Kuykendall in particular, although Bash is off to an uncharacteristically slow start in that area with only 3 HR's.)

[BirdWatcher]

In only his second start of the season, Will Smart provides the Brewers with a beauty as they take game 1 against Charlotte (in Denver) 5-0.
Smart worked 8 scoreless innings, allowing just 5 hits while striking out 8 and walking nary a batter.
He got all the offensive help he would need from Tanner Yurek, who hit his 9th HR of the season to tie Antonio Puente for the team lead, and also hit his 8th double, going 2 for 3 in the game.
Kevin Curtis also provided a HR, his 2nd of the year, a 2-run shot in the 7th as part of a 4-run inning that finally gave Smart a comfortable cushion to work with. Curtis, who is a fine defensive catcher and has a very good eye at the plate, is earning more and more playing time as he has been even better than the team hoped for this season.

[BirdWatcher]

The Brewers continue their uneven play as we head into mid-June.
In the second game of three against the lowly Charlotte Sting, the Brewers get a fabulous start from the Captain, Abel Pennington. Pennington works 9 2/3rds scoreless innings, scattering 8 hits, striking out 4 while walking just 2 batters. With just the tiniest bit of run support he earns a win. But instead the game goes into the 14th inning with neither team having scored. The Sting then break through for 2 runs in the top of the 14th, but the Brewers manage to rally to tie the game in the bottom of that frame.
Finally, in the 16th, a Nate Chapman solo HR breaks the tie again and the Brewers fail to score in the bottom of the 16th and lose 3-2.

In game 3 of the series, the Brewers get another rather disappointing performance from supposed ace, Cheol-han Lee, but the offense comes alive, particularly thanks to youngster Andrew Kennedy, who goes 3 for 4 with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI and hits his 5th double of the season, and the Brewers win 9-5 and get the series victory.