The 2022 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

ALCS bound...



After nearly going down 0-2 at home the Rays ended up taking their ALDS comfortably from the Angels, clinching the series with a 6-1 win in Anaheim. Taj Bradley wasn't great but he was good enough to limit the damage and the Rays got through a couple of dicey innings in the 6th and 8th allowing only one run. The Rays' big 4-run rally in the 3rd started with a pop-up just behind second which the Angels misplayed into a hit and was capped by a 2-run Ozzie Albies single. The only down note was that we lost Tanner Dodson for the rest of the playoffs with shoulder tendinitis. So who will we face?



Yep, we thought we had vanquished the Blue Jays by beating them out for the division title but now we have to get by them again after they upset 107-win Houston in only 4 games. Elsewhere Arizona cruised to the NLCS by allowing only two runs in three games and Atlanta got a big win in LA to move one win away.

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Going the distance:

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[Art Deco]

A leg up...



In a game where neither team's bullpen covered itself in glory the Rays managed to outlast the Jays 5-4 in 10 innings. Surprisingly Toronto opted not to intentionally walk Yordan Alvarez with first base open and two out and the slugger, who homered earlier in the game for the first time this postseason, made them pay with an RBI double scoring Ozzie Albies from second. Before that the Rays squandered leads of 2-0 and 3-2, the latter when Vlad Guerrero Jr. hit a 2-run double. But after Alistair Hardy, who had a big game, doubled to lead off the 9th Triston Casas brought him home with an RBI single to tie it up. Donye Evans will try to get the Rays up 2-0 tomorrow.

[Art Deco]

Oh the bullpen...



Once again the bullpens were terrible and this time it was the Rays' pen which stunk worse as Toronto overcame a 7-5 deficit in the late innings to steal an 8-7 win and even the series. Donye Evans overcame a terrible 1st inning to keep the Rays in it as they battled back to 3-2 but the first bad bullpen performance came from Trey Riley, who gave up a 2-run homer to make it 5-2. Not to be outdone the Toronto pen allowed the Rays a 2-out, 5-run rally in the 7th including a pair of bases-loaded walks. But Aldry Acosta, who despite a 2.90, 113 whiffs in 71 innings and 1.8 WAR in relief, always seemed to give up the wrong hit(s) at the wrong time all season, did it again, allowing a 2-run homer to tie it in the 8th and then Toronto scored the winner off closer Randy Rodriguez in the 9th. So it's off to Canada for Game 3 with Walt Khattak getting the ball.

In the NLCS opener:

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Bryan Reynolds was the walk-off hero as his 3-run homer capped a late-inning comeback to give Atlanta a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.

[Art Deco]

A big win...



Mitsuyoshi Arakawa had the game of his life and the bullpen got the job done for a change as the Rays got by the Jays 3-2 in the third one-run affair in as many games this series to go up 2-1. Of course the big hit was Arakawa's solo homer in the 9th to break a 2-2 tie but he figured in both Rays runs before that with an RBI double 2nd and then singling, stealing second and scoring on a sac fly in the 5th. And the pen did its job including a first appearance from Ryan Okuda this postseason. Although the box score shows Aldry Acosta charged with a blown save it really wasn't his fault as Walt Khattak put men on second and third with nobody out and Acosta gave up a sac fly to Vlad Jr. and got out of the inning without further damage. The highly inconsistent Taj Bradley will take the mound for Game 4 tomorrow.

[Art Deco]

One win away...



Amazingly the Rays on the verge of a return to the World Series after they exploded for 5 runs in the top of the 6th to take an 8-4 win over Toronto and go up 3-1 in the ALCS. Triston Casas was the big hero today, slugging a 2-run homer early and breaking a 3-3 tie in the 6th with an RBI double, an inning capped by Alistair Hardy's 3-run homer, his first of the postseason. Taj Bradley turned in a fine outing and most importantly gave them 7 innings, giving the beleaguered bullpen some rest. Luis German will try to close it out for Tampa Bay tomorrow.

Speaking of closing things out, Atlanta is just about ready to do so:

[Art Deco]

Not so fast...



The Rays were unable to put Toronto away at the first time of asking as a dominant outing from Luis German was wasted when Bryce Eldridge and Ryan Okuda combined to allow all 5 Toronto runs in the 6th in a 5-3 loss which saw their series lead cut to 3-2. The Rays did bring up the tying run in the imposing presence of Yordan Alvarez with two out in the 9th but Alvarez looked at a called third strike to end the game. So it's back to St. Pete for Game 6 in a couple of days with Donye Evans toeing the rubber.

Also not dead yet:

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Arizona emphatically send the series back to Atlanta behind a historically dominant postseason outing from Deivi Garcia:

[Art Deco]

Unbelievable...




Three outs away from a trip to the World Series and instead the Rays are put in the position of a must-win Game 7 after Randy Rodriguez blew a 3-2 lead in the 9th to let Toronto win 4-3 and even the ALCS at 3. Runs were tough to come by but an Albies triple and Wander single gave them a 3-2 lead in the 5th and it held up thanks in large part to six whiffs in two innings from the much-maligned Aldry Acosta. But Rodriguez, normally a strikeout artist, didn't have his best stuff and gave up a leadoff homer to start the 9th and two more hits which lost the game as he couldn't even seem to get to two strikes against anyone. Now it's all-or-nothing with Walt Khattak starting tomorrow's Game 7.

[Art Deco]

Well that sucked...



Up 3-1 in the series and three outs away from taking the series in Game 6 the Rays instead choked away a chance at a trip to the World Series by losing 7-3 to Toronto in Game 7. In the end they had no answer for Vlad Guerrero Jr., who kept getting the big hit when the Jays needed it including a 2-run homer tonight to kick off the scoring and was deservedly named Series MVP. The bats were pretty quiet today for Tampa Bay and their Achilles heel of the series, the bullpen, gave up the four runs which were the difference in the final score. This wasn't a great team as we saw all year, fortunate to win their division and secure a bye with only 87 wins. But losing three straight when all you had to do was win one is still going to sting.

Of course blowing a 3-1 series lead isn't as bad as blowing a 3-0 lead and if Atlanta isn't careful that's what they're going to do:



Going to be quite a Game 7 tomorrow.

[Art Deco]

Atlanta managed to right the ship in time:



So it's a rematch of last year's World Series which Toronto won (I had forgotten this or would have referred to the Jays as the defending champs somewhere in one of the previous recaps), making it the first repeat Series matchup since 1977-78 when the Yankees beat the Dodgers in consecutive years.

As usual, I'll have a single post recapping the WS up tomorrow or the day after.

[Art Deco]

Could Atlanta finally beat Toronto in a World Series after losing in 1992 and last season? Or would the Jays repeat as back-to-back champs, taking out 107-win Houston and 105-win Atlanta on the way?




This set up the series for a Game 7, and followed the pattern of Toronto's comeback in the ALCS where they came back from 3-1 down to beat the Rays. And it turned out to be one of the greatest Games 7 in MLB history:



The Jays looked like they had this one in the bag, leading 4-1 for most of the game going into the bottom of the 9th. But Atlanta loaded the bases with two out and Bryan Reynolds, who was named series MVP, cleared them with a double to the LCF gap and sent us to extra innings. Atlanta had a chance with the bases loaded in the 12th but couldn't score and then Toronto finally got to Will Bednar, who was running on fumes by the 14th, on a 2-run Bo Bichette double so it looked like a championship delayed but not denied for the Jays. But in the bottom of the 14th Atlanta put a couple of men on and long-time team fixture Austin Riley stepped out and drilled a 3-run walk-off homer, the first in a WS Game 7 since Bill Mazeroski in 1960, and the championship went to the 404 area code for the first time in nine years.

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On the one hand, the 2030 Rays were an 87-win team that in a normal year would be lucky to have made the playoffs and the other they were one game away from getting to the World Series after blowing a 3-1 lead in the ALCS. Outside of Yordan Alvarez and Wander Franco the team didn't have much star power and Yordan is a pending free agent.

A position-by-position look:

C-Angel Rivera is a decent catcher, good for 1.6 WAR with a sharp eye and moderate power who does a good job behind the plate. But like most catchers, he hits about .220. Rookie Cade Arrambide didn't show much at the plate was OK defensively. It's possible we look for someone better here.

1B-Junior Caminero has been the model of consistency the last three years as a .280-25-90 guy and will return.

2B-Ozzie Albies is still under contract and returns, hoping to improve on his up-and-down 2030. His defense is lousy but we can't put him at 1B or DH. It's possible Victor Mesa is a better option but we're paying Ozzie $18M.

SS-We need a bounceback year from Wander as after a couple of ~6 WAR seasons he fell off to 4.3 year last year.

3B-With Triston Casas a free agent the job reverts to Marco Luciano who was terrible last year (196/250/326). He's capable of better and has a guaranteed contract so for now we'll hope for the best but if we can find a legit 3B this winter he could take the infield backup role he did after Casas was acquired.

IF-Victor Mesa is the front-runner here, hitting well (277/330/500 in 94 AB). He's not a great defensive guy but he's too good to send back to Durham.

LF-We've made an extension offer to Yordan Alvarez and if he takes it this is his position.

CF-We have the Arakawa/Elijah Green platoon here. Neither hit for much contact but both have power and speed and are good defenders with Green providing Gold Glove-caliber D. Neither can hit same-handed pitching worth a damn.

RF-After James Wood went down with injury, Alistair Hardy took over the full-time job after coming over from the Phillies and was impressive so the job is his.

OF-In addition to whoever's sitting between Arakawa and Green the aforementioned Wood will be back in May and once again will try to live up to his excellent ratings. Manny Tovar is also an intriguing option who would probably break camp with the club if the season started today.

DH-These are Nelson Haro's hitting ratings:



Looking at these you'd think he was a .320-hitting stud with 50-60 doubles, 20-30 homers, and he'd only strike out about 50-60 times. Instead he hit 271/325/423 with a only a 110 OPS+, and fanned 98 times (the doubles were there, though - he led the league with 54). He did hit .310 in his rookie season in 2029 so I'm banking on a big bounceback.

Rotation-The excellent quartet of German/Evans/Khattak/Bradley all return, as does 5th starter Bryce Eldridge who had a rough season but probably is better than that so we're well-set there.

Bullpen-Closer Randy Rodriguez returns but the likes to Trey Riley, Victor Gonzalez and Ryan Okuda are all free agents. We made an extension offer to Okuda given his ability to start as well. Gerald Ogando is the setup man and Tanner Dodson was good as well. Human home-run machine Erovis Alcantara and human hit machine J.P. Sears (due for $6M in arbitration!) will be non-tendered so there's no question we're going to have to add a bullpen arm or three.

Also there's no immediate help on the horizon from the farm system, so any improvements will have to come from acquisitions.

Offseason goals:

1) Build up the bullpen
2) Find an impact bat at 3B or CF
3) Re-sign Alvarez and Okuda

[Art Deco]

As always we start with the retirements.

Notable MLBers: Manny Machado, Gerrit Cole (Yankees retired his #45), Christian Yelich, Cavan Biggio, Lucas Giolito.

Former Rays: Brandon Lowe, Aaron Ashby, Diego Castillo.

November 11: Signed LHP Ryan Okuda to a 3-year, $8.1M extension.

A year ago I would have laughed in your face if you told me this would happen after his poor 2029. But he bounced back to have the kind of season we expected of him when acquiring him before 2029 and he gives us 1) a lefty reliever, 2) a multi-inning guy, 3) and someone who can start in a pinch. And if he stinks again the money isn't a big loss.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: No Rays, no surprise.

Silver Slugger: We had two winners: 3B Triston Casas, who did most of his damage with Baltimore, and LF Yordan Alvarez.

Reliever of the Year: AL winner was Houston's Nick Robertson, no surprise with 43 saves and 1.02 ERA, garnering 27 first-place votes. NL winner was Billy Sullivan of St. Louis with 17 first-place nods, saving 38 games with a 1.80 ERA and an eye-popping 3.9 WAR.

Rookie of the Year: White Sox 2B Justin Still was unsurprisingly a unanimous winner in the AL after a .282-43-122 year while the same applied to Washington CF Hector Juarez after his .329-31-86 year.

Cy Young: There is no doubt who the best pitcher in baseball is and Texas superstar and free agent-to-be Robert Ahlstrom took home the AL Cy Young for the third straight season, winning the pitching triple crown going 20-6, 2.42 with 263 whiffs in 215 innings and earning 7.6 WAR. As far as the mere mortals go, Tampa Bay's Luis German and Donye Evans finished 2-3 which ain't shabby. Also winning unanimously was Washington's Parker Detmers in taking the NL award thanks to a 17-8, 3.01, 6.3-WAR season.

MVP: Houston star RF Kyle Tucker, whom the Rays "borrowed" for a season in 2025, won his second MVP thanks to a 331/407/607 season that saw him bang out 200 hits, 39 HR and 130 RBI, leading the majors with 8.6 WAR. Tucker took 24 first-place votes. Rays Triston Casas and Yordan Alvarez finished a distant 11th & 12th. In the NL Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. finally won his first, nosing out 2-time winner Fernando Tatis Jr. 320-301 in the voting and 13-9 in fragmented first-place voting. Acuna hit .293-37-98 and earned 8.1 WAR.

Some big Rays news:



I can tell you it's a 4-year, $80.6M extension. It would likely cost us much more than this in money and/or players to replace him, so hopefully he continues the good health he showed in 2030 and is a middle-of-the-order force for us in the years to come.

Big trade incoming:



The Yankees had Henderson on the block and we were happy to trade with them as he's averaged 30 HR and 4.6 WAR over the last three seasons and fills our Triston Casas-sized void. And the price was right as Wood has been a perennial tease for us, putting up pedestrian numbers despite above-average ratings for the last several seasons. And he's out until May but watch him thrive with the Yankees. This move of course keeps Marco Luciano on the bench despite his guaranteed contract but he'll spell Henderson against some tough lefties and back up Wander at SS.

So how 'bout another trade?



Not exactly a blockbuster but Cedillos is being eyed as our SS for 2032 with Wander a free agent after this season. He's nowhere in Wander's league as a hitter but runs rings around him defensively:



Although he rocketed through the Nationals system to play 60 games with the big club last year, I see him ticketed for Durham. Nevertheless that's an elite glove across the infield and far from a total zero at the plate. Rodriguez is an intriguing power bat but a 1B who's a ways away.

And the wheeling and dealing continued:



Like James Wood before him, Robby Castillo was another conundrum for us who hit 196/282/380 in 179 AB in stretches over the last three seasons but had ratings that showed him to be a potential 3rd-hole hitter. He did excel at Durham, hitting .305 with 53 homers combined over the last two seasons but there was no path to the big league roster for him with Junior Caminero manning 1B and Nelson Haro DH. So it was time to shop him while the bloom was still on the rose and we did quite well, addressing a need in CF by acquiring Solano. The 25-year-old was the 8th overall pick in 2027 and made his MLB debut last year with Minnesota. While he didn't set the world on fire with the Twins he had 5 and 6-WAR seasons in the minors in 2028 and 2029 and had a great couple of months in AA before being called up:



These are quality ratings with the potential for more. The deal probably means Mitsuyoshi Arakawa is on the block.

And there goes Arakawa:



Arakawa brings a bullpen arm in the person of Armenta, who earned 2.3 WAR with Seattle last year in a swingman role, going 6-8, 2.41 in 103 IP including 14 starts. He's ticketed for our pen but it's nice to know he can fill in as a starter.

December 7: First big free agent signing of the offseason as division rival Boston inks former Ray and most recently former National star OF Spencer Torkelson to a 4/90 pact. With the exception of 2027 when he hit 25 for the Rays, Tork has hit 40+ homers four of the past five seasons.

December 10: And here's the free agent signing I didn't want to see. All-everything pitcher Robert Ahlstrom has joined the Yankees on a 5/170 deal, the club's biggest pitching signing since Gerrit Cole prior to the 2020 season.

December 11: Signed Cuban free agent 1B Ruben Solis to a minor league contract.

Solis was part of the international pro free agent class and boasts good power (60 per my scout, 70 per OSA) but not a lot else (45s across the board). He'll give us some 1B depth lost when Robby Castillo was traded.

December 11: The Twins signed CF Daulton Varsho to a 4/100 deal and the Phillies nabbed top closer Will Vest for 2/22.

December 13: Milwaukee retained the #1 pick in next year's draft as the lottery results were announced. The big mover was San Antonio (formerly Pittsburgh) jumping from 8 to 3.

December 16: The Yankees continue to collect starting pitchers as they added veteran Tarik Skubal on a 1/5.3 deal.

December 17: Wasn't planning on making another trade so soon but Seattle made me a good offer which I accepted:



Armstrong is a righty groundball reliever who pitched well in 30 IP for the Mariners last year although we'll have to try to keep him away from lefties. The real prize in the deal is Jeffery, a 23-year old OF who was Seattle's 2nd round pick in 2026. He has potential 60 contact, 70 gap power and 50 HR power and can play the OF corners well. Tizzard is not much of a prospect but why not? Carmichael was our 2nd round pick in 2022 and has been Durham's starting C the last couple of years. Although he isn't going to hit much and he's only decent defensively, trading him away does leave us thin at the position in the organization and I'll be probably be looking to sign a vet or two.

December 26: Added OF Chad Jeffery and 1B Evan Bell to the 40-man roster.

Not much I was worried about losing in the Rule 5 draft and with some 40-man slots open we may make a pick if something catches my eye.

December 26: Kind of shocked the Yankees signed our free agent reliever Trey Riley for a whopping 3/22 deal. Meanwhile, another former Ray signs a minor league deal as JP Sears, whom we non-tendered, joins the Mets organization after a season in which he put up a 7.01 ERA for us.

December 27: 32 players taken in the Rule 5 draft but none from our organization, nor did anyone intrigue me enough to select. Meanwhile St. Louis signed veteran closer Emmanuel Clase, who spent the last couple of seasons with the Dodgers and is coming off surgery for bone chips in his elbow, for 3/31.

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January 2: The Yankees continue to splurge in free agency, signing 36-year-old Dansby Swanson to a 2/36 deal. Swanson hit .282-24-95 for champions Atlanta last season in his second go-round with the club.

January 8: The Hall of Fame voting is in:

SP Clayton Kershaw 99.1 (1st year) Inducted HOF
C Joe Mauer 72.4 (8th year)
1B Joey Votto 71.2 (3rd year)
C Yadier Molina 57.6 (4th year)
SP Adam Wainwright 56.3 (2nd year)
CL Craig Kimbrel 48.9 (1st year)

Kershaw sails in nearly unanimously in his first try while Joe Mauer comes agonizingly close and has only two more tries to get over the hump. Also a very good showing for Joey Votto.

January 20: G'day, mate we signed an Aussie international free agent:



With that full beard I hope he's not lying about being 16. Potentially special bat, but we'll see.

January 24: Signed international free agent P Mario Sanchez.

Sanchez isn't as exciting - although he has 65 potential stuff and 55 potential control, the 35 movement is going to be a problem for him.

February 1: Pete Fairbanks is back in the AL East as the former Ray signed a 1-year $2.8M deal with Toronto.

February 2: We'll be seeing a lot of Triston Casas as last year's Rays rental has joined the Yankees for 3/52 as New York tries to spend their way back into contention.

February 6: Another former Ray is on his way to New York, but this time it's with the Mets as they inked Jovani Moran to a 1-year, $3.2M contract.

February 15: Victor Gonzalez, our top lefty reliever last season, joins the Blue Jays for 2/8.

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We had a good spring on the field (12-5, I only play 3 weeks of exhibition games) but suffered a key injury when Wander Franco fractured his wrist and will be out until mid-May. This means winter acquisition Isaac Cedillos, who was ticketed for Durham with an eye toward being the SS in 2032, will instead be our starting SS until Wander returns.

The roster:

C-Rivera, Arrambide
1B-Caminero
2B-Albies
SS-Cedillos
3B-G.Henderson
IF-Luciano
LF-Y.Alvarez
CF-R.Solano
RF-Hardy
OF-E.Green (CF vs LHP), H.Mendez
DH-Haro

SP-German, Evans, Khattak, Bradley, Eldridge
LR-Buckman
MR-Acosta, Armenta (L), Armstrong, Dodson, Okuda (L), Onyshko (L)
SU-Ogando
CL-R.Rodriguez

Hendry Mendez made it as the 5th OF over Manny Tovar due to the former being out of options.

The preseason predictions, which aren't bad for us considering Wander is not included in them due to being injured:




Donye Evans projected for 21 no-decisions!

[Art Deco]

The Opening Day box:



A nice start to 2031 for the Rays and a great team debut for Gunnar Henderson, who cleared the bases with a triple in the first and finished with 4 RBI while 2030 underachiever Nelson Haro looked like the 80-contract guy he's rated as, getting on base 4 times and driving in a pair while Luis German dominated Boston bats.

Game 2: 9-4 W. WP-Evans (1-0, 5 4 4 4 2 8). Donye gave up a couple of homers and fell behind 4-0 in the 3rd but the bats responded by tying it in the bottom of the inning and putting up 4 more in the 4th. Haro was big again, going 3-4 with 2 RBI for the 2nd straight day and Albies had a bases-clearing triple.

Game 3: 3-0 W. WP-Khattak (1-0, 6 4 0 0 2 8). S-R.Rodriguez (1). Walt Khattak was brilliant and all 3 runs came in the 3rd on a Gunnar RBI single and a 2-run single from Isaac Cedillos as the Rays get 2031 off to a 3-0 start.

Game 4: 5-6 L. LP-Bradley (0-1, 5 6 6 6 2 4). HR-Hardy (1), Haro (1), Cedillos (1), Albies (1). Taj was hit hard early and put them in deficits of 5-0 and 6-2. They got it back to 6-5 in the 5th thanks to the team's first four homers of the season but never could push across the equalizer including when Haro led off the 7th with a double. Speaking of Haro he's started the year 9-16 with a homer and 5 RBI. Also the revamped bullpen is unscored upon in 14 innings so far.

Team record: 3-1. Next up: 3 games in Houston against the 4-0 Astros.

[Art Deco]

Game 1: 2-9 L. LP-Eldridge (0-1, 4 9 7 7 2 4, 3 HR). HR-R.Solano (1), Arrambide (1). Eldridge picked up where he left off last year - stinking. The two homers came in the 9th to avert a shutout.

Game 2: 4-11 L. LP-German (1-1, 2 9 7 7 1 1, 3 HR). HR-Caminero (1), G.Henderson (1). Another brutal loss which started with a brutal 3-homer outing from a starter as the Astros move to 6-0 and look unbeatable.

Game 3: 1-2 L. LP-Evans (1-1, 0 1 1 1 0 0). A painful loss both physically and mentally. Physically as Donye Evans left after giving up a leadoff double with a flexor-pronator strain in his elbow and he'll miss a month in a tough blow. Mentally as the Rays left 13(!) men on base in a game they lost by one run as the good vibes from winning the first three games have completely vanished. Nelson Haro was 3-4 and is hitting .517 (15 for 29).

Team record: 3-4. Next up: We head north to Minnesota for 3 games.