Dante Culpepper Sucks / Evaluating QB's

[GForce]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

What the hell? So I guess Archie Manning really sucked!

That's his desperate defense of Michael Vick.

GH

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Mark Guest

Mewelde Moore was an emerging star last season and Daunte Culpepper looked like a lock for Canton, so that statement should be revised.

.

I'll take that into consideration.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Remember, though, corellation does not necessarily equal causation.

I totally agree. But what's that law in stats that shows if you find extreme examples that they corraborate certain probabilities? For instance, if you fed three dogs a special food and they all grew 3 standard deviations taller than the mean, your sample size may be small but the evidence is still quite impressive, since the probability of that extreme deviation would be very small in a random sample if the dog food didn't make a difference.

Same thing here. Daunte Culpepper, Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Kerry Collins have all seen their QB ratings change tremendously (without looking up their stats, I'd think we're talking 2-3 st. devs each) upon either gaining or losing Randy Moss or Terrell Owens.

[Mark Guest]

Culpepper had better numbers when Moss was hurt last season than he did when Moss played, so you make no sense.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

Brad Johnson did OK in a role more limited than Culpepper had. Maybe it's just proving Culpepper is not that great? Or is it the sample size of Johnson?

Brad Johnson has done 2 things better than Culpepper in his limited time... He's been sacked at a lower rate (although, I didn't take the time to look at the defensive lines that each of the two played, obviously) and hasn't thrown any picks.

I'm not very impressed with the 5.84 yds/att or 54% completion.

I'm not trying to take away from the first two things I mentioned, as they are obviously very significant... but really, the fact that 3 of his passes have put someone in the endzone is overrated with regards to passer rating... and sacks aren't even accounted for in passer rating. I don't like passer rating.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Mark Guest

Culpepper had better numbers when Moss was hurt last season than he did when Moss played, so you make no sense.

Randy Moss was on the field an awful lot more last year than people remember (he was 5th in the NFL in receiving TD's). Someone pre-crash had showed Daunte's ratings from games in which Moss didn't play at all last year, then compared them to Daunte's stats when Randy touched the field, and I think he threw in Frerotte's stats with Moss for good measure, and I'll just say that this probably isn't an argument you want to make. Besides, we have a nice sample from 2005 with both Culpepper and Collins, plus we have nice samples from McNabb and Garcia, so I'd rather go with the 100 or so games of sample we have combined there than only using 2 games from 2004.

[SWardle]

[snip]

Not a single mention about your rant about how GREAT Carnell Williams was after you watched _one_ game. Where's your bragging about that one oh great swami? I mean, you jumped on two bandwagons and hit gold on one and fell face first into a pile of crap on the other. You took Culpepper who was playing bad and said "He sucks without Moss" - which he was sucking at the time - and you took a RB everyone was raving about, who had 3 100-yard games and said "OMG! HE'S SO L33T!" and well, he's been anything but since week 3.

Maybe I should find that thread and bump it because I said the Caddy was far from elite - when everyone else was slobvbering all over him, no less - and seeing as his last 4 games he's averaged like 1.8 YPC, well, I'd say you can chalk that one up for me since we're throwing your much loved "sample sizes" out of the window.

The fact is you are a bandwagon jumper. As soon as a player, team or coach does good/bad, you're always right here to slam or applaud them; without fail, no less.

With that, on the ignore list you go with Darkhorse. I'm tired of conversing with you.

Steve-O

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Enter Randy Moss, and the 2005 Oakland Raiders have scored 202 points (12th in total points per game) and are 6th in the league in passing yards per game--and Randy hasn't even been fully healthy yet.

Well, also enter Lamont Jordan, who was one of the most effective backs in the league last year when he got the opportunity to touch the ball.

Also, Kerry's value hasn't so much come in the ability to get more yards per attempt or complete a higher rate of his passes (which have marginally improved, though) which is where you'd expect a big reciever like Moss to have his most significant effect... it's come in less interceptions. I'm sure Moss has contributed to lowering Collins' picks by drawing coverage away from his #2 and #3 guys... but I would doubt he's improved Kerry's int% by as much as it has been improved.

Again, not saying Moss isn't a factor, and Lamont is Oakland's true savior... just trying to show you that there are plenty of other factors at work here too.

[SWardle]

Are people honestly saying Brad Johnson has done a good job at QB for the Vikings? Did you guys watch the same game I did today? They offense had 6 yards in the first half and didn't have a single drive you could even term as "mediocre" until the last drive of the game.

They scored no TD's, didn't move the ball and relied on 3 fluke TD's from the special teams and defense to get a nail biter of a win.

How on god's green earth does that qualify as a job well done by Johnson?

Steve-O

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by SWardle

[snip]

Not a single mention about your rant about how GREAT Carnell Williams was after you watched _one_ game. blah blah bandwagon blah blah soreness blah butthurt blah Culpepper is SO GUD blah...

I just figured you'd start another thread if you really wanted to talk about Cadillac Williams. I watched one game of him live, and I was very impressed. I haven't studied the Bucs enough to know what exactly the problem is there, but to have a guy with his tools getting 2 yards per carry in recent weeks points to a whole lot more wrong than Cadillac.

I saw some great things from him, and no, I'm not backing from what I said. It wasn't bandwagon--I made the post on a Sunday afternoon during his "breakout" game and before the talking heads came on TV that night and talked about it--it was all based on what I observed.

I still think he's a very good looking young runner, and I think he is the real deal. I don't think any RB this side of LT could do well for that team right now.

As for the Culpepper bandwagon, I thought he was overrated when MOSS WAS STILL THERE. If it was worth my time (basically, if I cared what you thought or respected you), I'd dig through TS--probably successfully--to see if I could find an old post to that effect.

All that aside, it's great news that I'm on your ignore list. I figure if we can manage to get everyone on your ignore list, it will effectively remove "your idiocy" (your words) from the OOTP community.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Brad Johnson has done 2 things better than Culpepper in his limited time... He's been sacked at a lower rate (although, I didn't take the time to look at the defensive lines that each of the two played, obviously) and hasn't thrown any picks.

I'm not very impressed with the 5.84 yds/att or 54% completion.

I'm not trying to take away from the first two things I mentioned, as they are obviously very significant... but really, the fact that 3 of his passes have put someone in the endzone is overrated with regards to passer rating... and sacks aren't even accounted for in passer rating. I don't like passer rating.

Brad Johnson played most against Carolina, Detroit, and New York Giants, all average or slightly above average in sacks and interceptions. I would say Brad Johnson did OK not because of opponents, but because he's not asked to do much.

What I am trying to ask here is, maybe a lot of Culpepper's problem is the expectation on him, which was built too high from the Randy Moss days.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

Brad Johnson played most against Carolina, Detroit, and New York Giants, all average or slightly above average in sacks and interceptions. I would say Brad Johnson did OK not because of opponents, but because he's not asked to do much.

What I am trying to ask here is, maybe a lot of Culpepper's problem is the expectation on him, which was built too high from the Randy Moss days.

I'd agree with everything here. I'm sure the playbook is changed for Johnson which results in less risky passes, which results in less INT's...

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by SWardle

Are people honestly saying Brad Johnson has done a good job at QB for the Vikings? Did you guys watch the same game I did today? They offense had 6 yards in the first half and didn't have a single drive you could even term as "mediocre" until the last drive of the game.

They scored no TD's, didn't move the ball and relied on 3 fluke TD's from the special teams and defense to get a nail biter of a win.

How on god's green earth does that qualify as a job well done by Johnson?

Steve-O

Well done? Not even close. Brad Johnson was at best asked not to make mistakes, and I am just saying maybe same should have been asked of Culpepper.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Thinking about the WR impact "study" thing? I'm fascinated by it, so it would be cool to think you were on the "bandwagon" (shout outs to my brother SWardle) with a similar interest.

I've just conceptualized a way to look into this... we'll see how busy I am this week, and maybe I'll be able to get it done.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

Well, also enter Lamont Jordan, who was one of the most effective backs in the league last year when he got the opportunity to touch the ball.

Also, Kerry's value hasn't so much come in the ability to get more yards per attempt or complete a higher rate of his passes (which have marginally improved, though) which is where you'd expect a big reciever like Moss to have his most significant effect... it's come in less interceptions. I'm sure Moss has contributed to lowering Collins' picks by drawing coverage away from his #2 and #3 guys... but I would doubt he's improved Kerry's int% by as much as it has been improved.

Again, not saying Moss isn't a factor, and Lamont is Oakland's true savior... just trying to show you that there are plenty of other factors at work here too.

There are always the other factors. You could easily make arguments that the Iggles had a better running game before TO, so his impact is even greater, you could argue that Collins had more tools with past teams than with Oakland outside of Moss, you could argue a lot of things from the other side too.

But, I've just decided to kind of make the claim and let it stand. I think the numbers will even out those variables as time goes on, so right now I'm kind of making the list of guys who I think fit into the top[ talent category with Randy Moss, then I'm paying attention to QB ratings for guys who come and go. So far, here is what I'm working with:

WR's:
Moss
Owens
Chad Johnson

QB's affected:
Culpepper
Collins
McNabb
Garcia
Kitna
Cunningham (?-hadn't thought of him before an earlier post, have to see how he did in the couple of years preceding Moss compared to with Moss!)

So far, there has been consistent 10-20 point swings in QB ratings for all of those cats when they gain or lose one of those three guys. As it is right now, they are the only three that I think belong in that "ridiculous" ability category.

[Skipaway]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I'd agree with everything here. I'm sure the playbook is changed for Johnson which results in less risky passes, which results in less INT's...

So maybe that huge differences in performances without Moss isn't about how Culpepper is really that bad without Moss, but how the team failed to recognize how much it was Moss, and adjusted in the wrong way which exposed Culpepper. The team might have thought Culpepper would be able to excute all those plays without Moss, which apparently could lead to more interceptions or more sacks.

[Sublimity]

Originally Posted by Skipaway

So maybe that huge differences in performances without Moss isn't about how Culpepper is really that bad without Moss, but how the team failed to recognize how much it was Moss, and adjusted in the wrong way which exposed Culpepper. The team might have thought Culpepper would be able to excute all those plays without Moss, which apparently could lead to more interceptions or more sacks.

I think anything that puts more of the Vikings struggles on the coaching staff is probably a pretty smart bet. Not to say a great receiver doesn't help a quarterback, but Mike Tice is a mo-ron.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by Sublimity

I think anything that puts more of the Vikings struggles on the coaching staff is probably a pretty smart bet. Not to say a great receiver doesn't help a quarterback, but Mike Tice is a mo-ron.

I think this is as accurate of an assessment of the Vikes situation as there has been in this thread.

[Sublimity]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I think this is as accurate of an assessment of the Vikes situation as there has been in this thread.

I don't know who got to watch the game from yesterday, with the play of Tice being taken out and his knee bent funny. It looked bad, and I'm sure it hurt, but didn't he push himself up off it? At any rate, he later claimed he tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL. That's just what the sideline reporter said, so I don't know if he said it in jest (which I'm hoping is the case, for his sake). But that's the injury that took out Rodney Harrison, and without those ligaments, I don't think the knee moves right, much less is able to help you stand up. Anyway, I don't think I have a point to this post.

Too bad for Minnesota that isn't putting Tice on the IR (there, that's my point).

[QuestGAV]

Originally Posted by Sublimity

I don't know who got to watch the game from yesterday, with the play of Tice being taken out and his knee bent funny. It looked bad, and I'm sure it hurt, but didn't he push himself up off it? At any rate, he later claimed he tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL. That's just what the sideline reporter said, so I don't know if he said it in jest (which I'm hoping is the case, for his sake). But that's the injury that took out Rodney Harrison, and without those ligaments, I don't think the knee moves right, much less is able to help you stand up. Anyway, I don't think I have a point to this post.

Too bad for Minnesota that isn't putting Tice on the IR (there, that's my point).

Your ACl/MCL/PCL hold your lower leg in place on your upper leg. Without them, the lower leg just sort of flops around, like you saw with Harrison's injury. It takes a pretty significant amount of force to tear all three.