Life is Full of Ups and Downs in the Otis Association

[luckymann]

Not really that much mayhem to speak of this season, but still one very important race still to be decided. Fist off, here are how the standings look around the OA entering the final week.

Penthouse

• All done and dusted here, with the Halos off to the Otis Cup and the BoSox on the bounce back down to the Skylobby.

Skylobby

• Wer lads have just been chipping away at the M's lead and we enter the final week still in with some chance of catching them.
• The Padres have succumbed to the dreaded Double Drop, which happens more often than you'd perhaps think, and find themselves heading off to the Basement for a spell.

Basement

• This one looked all set to be a ding-dong three-way battle for promotion until the last fortnight, when the Reds put the foot down and shook off the Snakes and A's. The O's, 9-1 over their last 10, have just left their run a bit late.
• The Bucs need a miracle to avoid another stint in the Gimp Room. Their next series at KC will almost certainly be their Waterloo.

[luckymann]

So just the two live races again - our battle with Seattle for the Skylobby and the fight at the bottom end of the Basement.

Skylobby

Blue Jays 3 @ White Sox 2 (Game 1)
Blue Jays 4 v White Sox 3 (Game 2)
Mariners 3 @ Guardians 6





Basement

Pirates 4 @ Royals 6
Marlins 3 v Diamondbacks 0

[luckymann]

Skylobby

Blue Jays 5 v White Sox 8
Mariners 4 @ Guardians 3





Basement

Pirates 3 @ Royals 4
Marlins 3 v Diamondbacks 5

No room left now for Pittsburgh. KC are safe.

[luckymann]

Skylobby

Blue Jays 4 v White Sox 3
Mariners 0 @ Guardians 2





Basement

Pirates 3 @ Royals 4
Marlins 9 v Diamondbacks 1

That settles that, then.

[luckymann]

Skylobby

Blue Jays 1 @ Rangers 2 (10)
Mariners 2 v Cubs 1

That makes it tough for us, will need a TB at best now.

[luckymann]

Skylobby

Blue Jays 3 @ Rangers 0
Mariners 5 v Cubs 10

And so, it all comes down to the final day.

[luckymann]

Skylobby

Blue Jays 3 @ Rangers 10
Mariners 8 v Cubs 4

An anticlimactic whipping by Joe Musgrove and co rendered moot at any rate by the M's win.

[luckymann]

Penthouse




Skylobby




Basement

[luckymann]

Seattle Mariners (LOBBY) v Cincinnati Reds (BASE)
Best-of-five, Mariners with the home-field advantage.

Game 1 in Seattle - September 24th, 1991

Game 2 in Seattle - September 25th, 1990

Game 3 in Cincinnati - September 27th, 1990

Game 4 in Cincinnati - September 28th, 1990

Game 5 in Seattle - September 29th, 1990

Seattle wins series 3-2

[luckymann]

Los Angeles Angels (PENT) v Seattle Mariners (LOBBY)
Best-of-seven, Angels with the home-field advantage.

Game 1 in Los Angeles

Game 2 in Los Angeles

Game 3 in Seattle

Game 4 in Seattle

Game 5 in Seattle

Los Angeles wins series 4-1 [1]

[luckymann]

What a fantastic season for our club despite that narrow promotion miss. As I think I predicted earlier, I do not feel the slightest bit disappointed about coming up short and facing another season in the Skylobby, as I don't feel we are quite ready for those big boys just yet.

We set a winning record as the target here and achieved that easily, finishing 93-69. More importantly, we took some huge strides toward being able to compete with the best, and another season with this group and a couple key adds should have us just about primed.

Again, these are some really solid numbers and rankings in almost every regard. At the risk of singing the same old song, those strikeouts and walks by our hitters remain our main weakness. The boss has set us / me the goal of improving or HR rank as well, which I believe should happen organically at least to some degree by dint of the continued development of what is a fairly young squad. If we can find a big bat and get more men on base, we will be really tough to outscore more often than not. ZR ticked up a smidge but could do with further improvement, and it's good to see our Defensive Efficiency above 700.

BATS

An absolute breakout year for Vic Ramirez was the clear highlight for our offence, with Kmerce Kmet not far behind. He hit a LOBBY record 40 triples in the end and his astonishing ISO of 265 was clearly the league's best. Jeff LaMarr proved a key add both with the bat and through his guiding influence behind the plate, and I'm looking forward to hopefully having him for a full season in '92. We managed to pick up a few handy waiver claims late in the year, and my offseason will be figuring out which players figure in the next phase of our franchise and which need to be traded for players that will. That will be super tough - I love this squad. Locking down Clarke and Torres for a few years on not-too-outrageous deals would be a huge win for us.

SHOPPING LIST: Just a general tightening and a few upgrades as required (see GLOVES, below.

BALLS

We've been given another modest bump in budget to $88m for next year and, one of the most positive factors of what we achieved this season is that we did it on the league's lowest payroll. We should have at least $40m room and I plan to spend most of what we increase that by on some elite arms. The rotation improved over the course of the season while, as is to be expected given all the heavy lifting it did early on, the pen loosened up a bit, to the point that the final ERAs for each were only 50 points apart. Rawly Eastwick came back to earth a bit after his magnificent 1990 for us, but I still see him as an integral part of this staff. We need a couple lights out lefties and a pair of upwardly-mobile mid-rotation SP and I reckon we've got it down pat.

SHOPPING LIST: 2 x quality LH relievers; 2 or 3 plus-grade SP.

GLOVES

Yep, we've got a surplus of OF. Hill and Clough likely go to AAA as a pair of cheap call-ups, with neither on much above the min. Adams and John Wright, who were two of the waiver claims I mentioned, are younger version of those guys and under TC thru '95 with low arb projections. These guys are a form of insurance policy against the mass exodus an unexpected demotion would instigate.

It is in the IF where change seems inevitable. I still prefer DeGoti at 2B but only a top SS acquisition will enable us to move hime there, and in the end he might be the bait to get that guy anyway. We extended Vern Schmall by 2 years for less than $3m total and, while he is clearly less poppy than Al their D is on par with each other. Perhaps the biggest question of all is Kmet. I just love the guy, total (one-sided) bromance going on here. But with plenty of other options at 1B and that / DH his only option, the decision to keep or trade him with be entirely driven by the almighty dollar.

SHOPPING LIST: Enough window-shopping, it is time to go get that plus-grade middle IF.

WINGS

The other really positive aspect of this season was that we got to see a few of our pitching prospects in action. The flipside of that is that not a one of them either overly impressed or utterly disgraced themselves. Julian Morgan (2-3 / 4.78), Rick Forney (2.57 ERA in a cameo of 7 IP) and George Starrette (a handy 2-2 / 3.40 in 42 IP of both starts and relief appearances) will almost certainly get another crack next year but of equal certainty is the fact that they'll also be visiting Buffalo at some point.

Let's have a look at our pipeline as it currently stands:

Of these, I only really hold out hope for Castillo, Fekete and perhaps Venzon. We'll not be getting much help from the Draft again, with similarly low picks to last season, so this is unlikely to change anytime soon.


All in all, the club is certainly looking robust and headed in the right direction. We just need to keep that momentum going from here.

[luckymann]

Just the two arb-eligible players to be dealt with and I lowball them both:

• P Larry Brunke - a late-season waiver claim who may work out as a decent enough LR from the left side. Was on $1.48m this year, we offer $1.2m
• P David Lawson - a horror 3-16 / 5.58 season at AAA but I think he's better than that. Not much, though, if our $400k offer is any indication.

We get a split of sorts here: Brunke gets $2m, while we win with Lawson.

Pending FAs Ernest Gause and Chris Shaddy are let go unopposed.

Tim Torres, Al DeGoti and Vic Ramirez win Platinum Sticks. Vic and Kmerce Kmet finish 4th and 6th respectively in the MVP voting.

We keep it relatively simple when the FAs declare, making four fairly aggressive pitches to the guys we want above all:

• 2B Kitty Wickham: 3/$12m
• P Garland Braxton: 3/$9.9m
• P Eddy Fernandez: 3/$10.5m
• P Niles Jordan: 3/$15m

We have an early win when Wickham signs on for the amount offered. Gotta love a no-muss, no-fuss guy.

Kitty is a better 2B than SS, which means we are stuck with DeGoti / Schmall / Carl Armstrong at short, but he hit 252 with 14 HR with the Friars last year and I reckon he's got a bit more pop in him than that.

Eddy Fernandez counters and we eventually agree on a 3-year / $10.5m deal that gives us an elite lefty reliever who is also an absolute fan magnet.

Jordan is going to be tough. His first counter adds roughly $2m to the overall deal and looks almost guaranteed to go higher. Meanwhile, the silence from Braxton is nigh on deafening until he walks into my office and hands me the signed contract on Draft Day.

He's a peach, almost certainly our SP1 in a year or two if all goes according to Hoyle, especially with Fleming's ongoing injury issues.

Jordan eventually signs in late-December. Meanwhile, we've offered a 2+1/$8.4 deal to lefty SP John Cerutti, a deal that is closed within a fortnight. We also lock down IF Dominique Paiement, an undrafted guy Jim Bishop liked the look of, on a minor-league deal with a small signing bonus.

To make room on the 40 for these guys, we have to waive a few others. I'm a bit taken aback but not all that bothered when every one of them is claimed: Cedric Mullins, Ken Markham, Justin Sturge, Mike Stanton and Ted Kubiak.

Our final move for the time being is just one of balance. Almost unbelievably, we do not have a pure LHB in our squad - a fair number of switch-hitters, but no lefties. That opens the door for me to kill the proverbial pair of flying creatures, namely clearing up a bit of our backlog along with some unnecessary payroll while acquiring a player I've been eyeing for a while.

Ken Jensen is a real nice-looking 3B/SS with more gap- than HR-power. He's on the min with three further years under TC. Schmall became redundant with the Wickham add, while Tom Johnson was only ever a bubble guy and Sorrow had next to no chance of making the top level.

[luckymann]

A virtual redux of last year, in which our low picks - albeit a slight improvement on '90 - lead me to delegate shopping duties to new SC Jim Bishop with some marginally more specific instructions on what to look out for. Or, more specifically, what to steer clear of - unless, that is, he finds a ghost who has somehow snuck under the collective guard of the 29 other clubs.

As my mind conjures up the comparative imagery of the other clubs tweezering diamonds on black velvet underlays in an upmarket Manhattan jeweller while my guy is beachcombing Santa Monica with a metal detector, Jim astounds me with his seemingly bounteous return:

• 110: C Stephen Platt, 18
• 121: P/1B/OF Ken Magown, 19
• 150: SS Todd Jackson, 18
• 151: P Clifford Breehl, 19
• 170: C Simeon Lucas, 18
• 171: IF/OF Robert Gallagher, 18

Now, we have already seen from last year that, courtesy of the scant statistical background of these players that the volatility bell-curve of perceived talent in this league looks more like a misshapen infinity sign or perhaps the error output on a calculator, but at first glance he has done mightily with these selections.

NeL legend Oliver "Ghost" Marcell goes first overall to the Padres. Here's the full R1 list:

[luckymann]

Well, the blurb in my signature for this save did use the word madcap with good reason, as there has been some really fun and quirky stuff going on since day one EG the Clemens trio.

Here's another one from today that falls squarely into this category.

Two relievers with the same name acquired by two teams from the same city on the exact same day. Only their mothers can tell them apart...

[luckymann]

All is in readiness as we cull the squad post a middling 5-7 Spring Training.

BATS

Some ummm... interesting choices of deployment by JG that I will be keen to see if they hold. He has never let us down so far and I trust his judgment without question.

No doubt we are a deeper squad this time around, and my main focus will be watching to see who is developing and who isn't, because nothing short of promotion this year will suffice.

BALLS

This is where we have really taken a step up in grade, but also the area with plenty of youth and inexperience. How new guys like Braxton, Jordan and the like handle themselves, and how Fleming and Parker come along will be key. James Fekete - in whom we have had enough interest from other clubs to make me think he is Sandy Koufax in disguise - gets his chance to justify the hype, while JG and I have agreed to ease Niles Jordan into the game in a relief role.

GLOVES

SS still the standout weakness here but what can you do? Solid everywhere else although or OF leans on the bat side of the ledger rather than the glove.

POCKETS

With draftees Lucas and Platt in the wings, this will almost certainly be the final year we have both LaMarr and Kostelac. Kmet remains a tough decision to be made. Torres and Clarke need to be locked down. Eastwick and Brunke could go either way, with the most likely outcome being the former stays and the latter is traded away.

We enter 1992 with a payroll of just under $63m, 2nd in the Penthouse, leaving us roughly $25m to spare.

WINGS

Three in the Top 10 is nice, although two of those are at the parent club and will soon drop off. The presence of Breehl and Magown hopefully means we have our next wave of quality relievers in tow, while those two young catchers I mentioned will be getting the eagle eye to see if they are as good as the reports say they could be.

HEARTS & MINDS

Interesting the boss has honed in on staff cohesion. I wondered if that meant he'd heard rumours of disharmony among our staff, but decided not to press him on it. We made a couple changes and hopefully these guys gel OK.


The tipsters see us winning a narrow race from the Reds. Can't say I really agree with how low they've got the Cards and why the are so down on the BoSox is beyond me. Nice to see both Fleming and rookie Braxton among the pitchers they are expecting big things from.

Like I said, this is where the prep stops and we take that next step up with the big boys. Anything less will be a disappointment.

[luckymann]

More drama likely on the cards at the bottom of the Penthouse than the top if the pundits are right, with just 10 games separating 4th and 10th.

And then, just as the neutrals would want, there looks to be a fierce battle for promotion from the Basement, with the Friars front and centre in the mix, along with the Snakes and O's.

We seem set for a thoroughly riveting 1992 Otis Association season from top to bottom.

[luckymann]

Fewer no-hitters in the OA than one might expect, but San Diego's Elmer Gregory nails one down here against the Rays. The Friars are looking good to take the first step back in the right direction, with a healthy lead in the Basement after roughly 70 games.

[luckymann]

A nasty little finish to the first half of the 1992 season for us, as we lose five games in a row (and counting...) hot on the heels of Dave Fleming being forced out for two months with acute elbow soreness. A shame, too, because up until then things seemed to be going our way. But that losing streak has moved us from first to fourth, although only three games behind the Senators, and it does seem as if the wind has definitely gone out of our sails for now.

BATS

Nothing much wrong in general with our offence, although Denzel Clarke stubbornly refuses to contribute more than replacement value or thereabouts. Carl Armstrong has been huge, same with Jeff LaMarr and good old Vic Ramirez after a bit of a cool start. Kitty Wickham is another who has come good after a poor first month, while Kmet and Kingery have been handy again, Kmet in particular (see below). Happy to report that our K/BB problem has improved, and this has helped us to score the most runs in the Skylobby. The D, also, has continued its upswing so I am generally happy with this area of our game.

BALLS

If only the same could be said about our staff. Some highpoints there - most notably Garland Braxton, who despite the historical aversion to pitchers winning the award must come into serious RoY consideration. Eddy Fernandez has been superb, Jarrod Parker much improved, and Fleming really solid before he got hurt. But John Cerutti has been horrendous and is now part of the BP, which has been our main problem as that 7th-ranked ERA tells you. Rawly Eastwick, so good for us just a couple seasons ago, is on his way out - $4m arb estimate for a 4.50+ ERA will earn him a trade or at worst a non-tender. Mark Clear is the other problem child, at Buffalo most of the season so far after posting a 6.75 ERA early on. He, too, is on thin ice. All in all, a bit of a mess.

INS, OUTS, UPS, DOWNS

Such a precarious tightrope walk trying to keep the squad improving with the ultimate goal of promotion always at the forefront of one's mindset while simultaneously not leaving yourself vulnerable to the dreaded regression, one at which I fail abjectly when I make this trade in mid-May...

... only to have DeGoti's replacement Ken Jensen go down for a month-long injury in mid-June. DeGoti was being used off the bench and wanted $3m+ per from here on in, so the trade makes sense and we got a solid RP in return, whom we subsequently extend on a reasonable 2/$3m deal.

I get us a bit more middle IF depth whilst tidying up the rosters a bit with three other low-key moves:

The DeGoti trade and Jensen injury lead to both Stanley and Whitehouse joining us at the big club. I've also somehow managed to switch the confusion of having two J. Wrights on our books for the confusion of having two J. Stanleys on our books. Genius, through and through.


The following players have been extended:

• IF Carl Armstrong 1/$1.45m
• IF Tim Torres and IF/OF James Rich 1/$3m - still no interest in longer-term from either
• OF Denzel Clark: 3/$8.55m
• P Johnny Magliozzi: 2/$3m - as mentioned above.

As good as Jeff LaMarr has been and continues to be, his demand of 3/$25m won't fly for me. I'd rather pay a bit more for a slightly younger guy of comparable quality for a year while we see how the two young guns develop. Were Joe Kostelac distinguishing himself, he might have been a cheaper version of the bridging option we are after, but a 196/219/275 line to this point kind of rules a line through him. He'll probably get moved on, with LaMarr here until the end and then allowed to walk unfettered. That would also give us the chance to have a closer look at one of the prospects, almost certainly Stephen Platt, who has done well at Buffalo, even though I believe Simeon Lucas to be the better of the two.

As I said, Eastwick is gone at season's-end and Clear very much on the precipice. Larry Brunke will get his chance to justify his $2m price tag while Flem is out of action. We may keep Neck Stanley as a cheap backup option, but Charles Smith will have to go as he will attract at least $1.5m in arb.

That leaves just Ken Jensen, who I am almost certain will be extended, and the virtually rhetorical question that is Michael Kmet. Yet again, he is making it almost impossible not to keep him here, with a 300/359/494 line and 6 HR / 34 RBI to his name. But that $4m or so outlay for a 1B without the traditional HR pop just sticks in my craw. The two most likely outcomes here are a prospect shop as late as possible if we aren't competing for promotion, or a first-day-of-offseason trade if we are. Of course, given my utter fascination with the dude, he may end up a Blue Jay for life...

Our projected payroll for '93 looks to be in the vicinity of $65m vs a budget around $90m, and with $26m still in the current kitty we are looking fairly comfortable both for this year and next in this regard. I'll be trying to parlay some of the unwanteds into players who might help us get over the hump down the stretch if that's what's needed, or if not then prospects for rainy days ahead.

AAA Buffalo has turned things around nicely this year, and currently lead their div by a couple games. With six Top-20 prospects on their books, I wouldn't expect anything less.

Magown is a gun who plays both ways and is slashing 353/446/472 with only sparing use on the mound to this point. He's not far off joining us, although I am reluctant to do so unnecessarily or prematurely. If we decide not to re-up with Kmerce, in Ken we have the replacement ready to slot in at 1B.

The boss is generally pleased, although still at me about this stupid Staff Cohesion. I'm just going to pretend I never got that memo.

[luckymann]

PENTHOUSE





SKYLOBBY





BASEMENT

[luckymann]

Our middling form has continued into the second half and I think it is time for us to start making plans for next season. I am more concerned with the downside risk of doing so prematurely than I am with cutting bait too early on promotion, mainly because there's no way I see this group acquitting themselves in the Penthouse at their current level and composition.

We pick up via waivers a strong leadership-type toolsy catcher in Jim Driscoll, which then precipitates the following trade:

Jeff has been fantastic for us, especially in the first half of this year but I have explained my mindset on him previously. A shop netted plenty of options but in the end I went with Tom Baker, with that high retain level the kicker. We have him for three years at an all-in cost of $6m, which makes him a fairly cheap punt. His reputation precedes him as a bit of an odd-bod loner, but we've been loaded up with cleanskins and are still sitting in mid-standings so maybe a bit of spice will shake things up a bit. With Joe Kostelac's arb est having plummeted, we might now extend him as a cheap backup. But one of those young'uns will be on our OD 1993 roster.

We also dangle Rawly Eastwick, along with his 8 ERA and $7m commitment for the rest of this season and the next, on the WW and he gets snapped up. Trade returns were minimal for him so this is purely a sally dump manoeuvre.

The Cubs waste no time in signing LaMarr on a 3/$25.2m deal.