The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Coming up short...



In the end the starters were the difference in Game 1 of the ALCS as Chicago's Dylan Cease was dominant while the Rays' Taj Bradley had his poorest outing in some time and Tampa Bay couldn't dig itself completely out of an early 4-0 hole and lost 4-3. Brock Jones' homer with two out in the 9th brought them within one and Junior Caminero hit the ball hard but just shy of the track for the final out. Matt Brash will get the ball for Game 2 to try and keep us from going to Chicago in an 0-2 hole.

[Art Deco]

Not great...



Thanks to a complete failure to hit, the Rays finds themselves down 0-2 in the ALCS. Elly De La Cruz's dramatic 2-out homer in the 9th tied it up at 1, but with our top relievers used to keep the game at 1-0 it fell to Jack Perkins in the 10th and he promptly gave up a triple and a double to plate the winning run for the White Sox. Instead of being dominated like they were yesterday by Dylan Cease today Rays hitters were kept off-balance and made weak contact against Sean Burke but the result was the same. Shane McClanahan will try to right the ship in a couple of days in Chicago.

Over in the NLCS:

Game 1:



Game 2:



Will Smith terrorized his former team to get the Mets back even as the series heads to New York.

[Art Deco]

OOTP's box score headline says it all...



Ugly was certainly the operative word here as Rays pitching was battered for five homers including a couple of big ones off Shane McClanahan who just didn't have it tonight. The series is now all but over and while I can get this team to the playoffs every year in this save, I can't seem to get them over the hump into the World Series. And to make matters worse we lost Mason Auer to a strained abdominal muscle and his postseason is over, probably only a game before the rest of his teammates. We'll have to turn the ball over to a rookie as well, as Waylin Santana will go in Game 4 hoping to replicate his brilliant 5-inning stint against the Yankees in ALDS.

[Art Deco]

Out with a whimper...



Despite taking a couple of leads, the Rays died in this series as they lived: not scoring enough runs and unable to keep Chicago hitters in the ballpark. For a moment there in the 7th it looked like they might keep their season alive when they went up 2-1, but Hayden Juenger gave up a homer to let Chicago tie and in the 8th Seranthony Dominguez gave up a 2-run shot to Adalberto Mondesi, his second of the game and that was that. They did load the bases in the 9th but a shallow fly ball and a ground out ended that threat along with the season. The only bright spot was the excellent start from Waylin Santana, who held Chicago to 1 run in 5 2/3 innings and he should be a part of the 2027 rotation.

Over in the NL:



The next post will be a full recap of this series.

[Art Deco]

Dodgers took the final two games so they'll play the White Sox in the Series:



LA's Bobby Marsh was named Series MVP after going 9-22 with 1 HR and 5 RBI.

[Art Deco]

Congrats to the Dodgers but perhaps Maddux Bruns could have gotten the MVP over Freddie Freeman. Freeman was an impressive 10-21 with 3 HR and 6 RBI so he's certainly worthy but Bruns pitched one of the more dominant games in WS history in Game 2, going 7 1 0 0 0 17 and then followed that up with a 5.2 2 1 1 0 9 outing in the clinching Game 6. And Tyler Glasnow gets his ring.

[Art Deco]

We've won 103, 92, 96 and 101 games in the four seasons of this save and made the playoffs each time but are still without a World Series or even a pennant win to show for it, which really has been the story of this franchise to date in this save. All I can do is to keep putting out a good a team as possible, get into the playoffs, and see what happens from there. And to that end most of this 101-win team should return for another go-round.

The only free agents of significance we're losing are two guys we probably wouldn't be keeping anyway: Jason Adam and Drew Rasmussen. The former lost arm strength and the closer's gig during the season and the latter couldn't stay healthy at all, managing only six starts last year. We did make two waiver claims during October that I didn't want to interrupt playoff coverage for since they're mainly depth moves:



Love the nickname, the power, and those AAA stats. He could be used as a 1B/DH against lefties and he has an option left (I think).



Wicks is your classic "crafty lefty" type and it also says he has one option left although I'm never sure when the odometer turns over on that (after free agency starts?). Like Melendez he put up nice numbers in AAA but has to prove it at the big league level.

Here's where things stand position-by-position:

C: The tandem of Langeliers and Bailey should return. Langeliers was one of our best players from about June on, while Bailey disappointed (0 HR in 164 AB after hitting 12 in 298 in 2025, not sure how that happens).

1B: Casas returns, he was a good pickup mid-season and didn't embarrass himself against lefties (832 OPS). If Melendez makes the squad he could spell Casas against them.

2B: Wander returns for another year of what should be his usual 5-6 WAR.

SS: Carson Williams was everything we'd hoped for after his midseason callup and appears to be a franchise fixture.

3B: Elly De La Cruz is coming off a 34/47, 5-WAR season and is making the minimum for one more season.

IF: Masyn Winn hit 296/358/408 as the infield backup and probably should be starting somewhere so I can't ask for anything more.

LF: Brock Jones tailed off in the second half at the plate but played Gold Glove-caliber defense (he got my vote) all season and looked good in the playoffs. He'll probably be back and will sit again against lefties, but it's possible he could be improved upon.

CF: Jackson Chourio also tailed off in the second half and then got hurt, coming back just in time for the playoffs. He should still be great. Jose Siri is projected for $7.5M in arbitration and will be non-tendered; as well as he played last year in both phases, that's way too much for a backup OF with 40 contact.

RF: Mason Auer had the season we envisioned he'd have after re-acquiring him from the Cubs in 2025, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 54 SB and 5.4 WAR. That'll play.

OF: Right now Kevin Alcantara is our 4th OF. He still has the potential to be an above-average bat, although he didn't distinguish himself in limited action with us (169/239/325). He could platoon with Jones in LF.

DH: Cal Mitchell is the incumbent, coming off a nice 305/362/496, 24 HR, 80 RBI season worth 2.5 WAR. That's the good news, the bad news is that most of that WAR was earned with Texas in the first half of the season and his 270/306/478 with us was just passable. He could also use a righty partner here, although he did hit .318 against lefties (but with only a .398 SLG). He's also due for about $5.8M in arbitration so trading him's a possibility too. Junior Caminero, who held his own in his first MLB action at 268/324/444, could easily take his place and also serve as a 1B/2B/3B backup.

Rotation: The big four of McClanahan/Bradley/Springs/Brash are all back with Waylin Santana set to join full-time as the fifth starter. And the likes of DL Hall, Ryan Pepiot, Jack Perkins and Hayden Juenger are all capable of starting but will likely resume their roles in the bullpen.

Bullpen: Camilo Doval returns as closer, Pepiot, Perkins and Juenger are back, Hall, Jovani Moran and Garrett Cleavinger give us deep depth from the left side, and Seranthony Dominguez is back to set up. In other words, the same bullpen without Adam. Dylan Lee is too expensive at $7.3M in arbitration and will be non-tendered. Possibilities to be the last man in the pen are Matt Canterino, Fernando Costume (the probable front-runner), and Wicks. Chase Petty will be back mid-season from his partially torn UCL and we'll have to see what kind of shape he's in.

Prospects: We do have a couple of bats of note who could make an impact. Cooper Kinney hit 43 HR and had 93 RBI with a 950 OPS between Montgomery and Durham last year and is ready to hit at the big-league level. The problem with him is that he's basically a lefty-swinging DH with lousy ratings on the infield. Joe Quelch has 65 MLB power with 70 potential and clubbed 36 dingers (including 25 at Durham) but as a 2025 draftee he doesn't have to go on the 40-man yet unlike Kinney. He's a decent corner OF and a righty swinger which fits our needs and is already 25. Joel Diaz is still considered our top starting pitcher prospect behind Santana but missed half the year with shoulder inflammation and put up some rough numbers at Durham (5.50 ERA, 16 HR in 88 IP) and without an opening on the MLB staff he'll be back with the Bulls.

So with all that said our goals for the offseason are:

1. Possibly find an upgrade for Jones in LF or at least a backup OF, one who hits from the right side.
2. See what we can get for Mitchell and possibly go with Caminero/Kinney at DH.

And really that's about it as we're pretty much taking this 101-win team and running it back.

[Art Deco]

Starting off with the retirements:

Notables: Kevin Gausman, Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu, Salvador Perez, JT Realmuto, Marcus Stroman
Former Rays: Christian Bethancourt, Ji-Man Choi, Joe Ryan, Calvin Faucher

Financial News: Our market size increased to "below average" (from "tiny" I guess) and the payroll allowed by Stu Sternberg is $160M. Here is the salary situation with everyone making above the minimum listed:



Keeping all of this crew adds to $152M but as mentioned in the previous post Jose Siri and Dylan Lee will be non-tendered so that brings it down to $137M. We have an extension offer out to Shane McClanahan that will add about $7M so we'll settling in around $144-145. A Mitchell trade could also clear most of that back however.

Awards Season:

Gold Gloves: None for us, although Brock Jones was jobbed out of the LF award.

Reliever of the Year: Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase (49 saves, 1.41 ERA, 3.5 WAR) was a unanimous winner in the AL with our Garrett Cleavinger finishing fifth. Another veteran took the honors in the NL as Edwin Diaz took all but one first-place vote (mine! for AJ Minter) after a 41-save, 1.36-ERA season.

Silver Sluggers: Wander (2B) and EDLC (3B) took home awards.

Rookie of the Year: LA's Tyree Reed (.266-29-82) won the AL version with Carson Williams finishing fourth and the Giants' Benny Montgomery was a close winner over Washington's Colby Backus after a .262-12-52, 2.0 WAR season.

Cy Young: It was unanimous!



Probably should take Comeback Player of the Year if OOTP awarded it after missing almost all of 2025 with injury. The NL winner was Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler who had an impressive 8.5 WAR season that should have him high in the MVP race as well. Chandler was 15-7, 2.35 with 329Ks (!) in 218 IP and an 0.935 WHIP. Surprisingly he wasn't unanimous as Atlanta's Spencer Strider took 2 first-place votes.

MVP: Now that they're no longer teammates Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani can win MVPs in the same season and that's what they did this year. Trout took the AL nod with 19 first-place votes and 359 points, beating out our Wander Franco who finished with 6 and 271. Trout was .282-42-104 and led the league in OPS (.972) and WAR (8.0). EDLC was 6th and Mason Auer 7th in the balloting. Ohtani meanwhile was honored for his 2-way work with the Cardinals, hitting .253-40-102 with 3.6 WAR and going 14-11, 3.67 with 211 whiffs and 3.8 WAR as a pitcher. He received 17 first-place votes with Atlanta's Austin Riley finishing second.


Some big extension news:

November 17: Signed SP Shane McClanahan to a 4-year contract extension worth a total of $108,800,000.

Probably going to regret this, but this was an owner goal and we have our ace (although some might say it's Taj Bradley now) locked up for 3 additional seasons as he was set to be a free agent next winter.

November 27: We lost our arbitration cases and as a result have $10M to spend on payroll. I've shopped Cal Mitchell but am not thrilled with the offers I'm receiving.

December 1: The Jung brothers are no longer teammates as the Rangers traded Josh to Minnesota.

December 2: Traded 26-year old 1B Ivan Melendez to the Minnesota Twins, getting 22-year old minor league C Andres Suarez in return.

Farewell to the Hispanic Titanic, we hardly knew ye. It turned out Melendez was in fact out of options and thinking it unlikely he makes the team I dealt him to open up a precious 40-man spot as well as acquire a semi-intriguing catcher prospect in Suarez. A 5th-round pick by Minnesota in 2025, Suarez has 65 contact and 50 power potential as well as 50 fielding potential, making him potentially valuable. He hit .263-17-71 in A ball in his first pro season as well.

December 5: Longtime Cardinal Tommy Edman is now a Met, traded for a prospect.

December 8: "The Big Dumper" is on his way to Houston as Seattle traded their catcher of the last several years to the Astros for a pair of prospects.

December 9: 36-year-old Zach Wheeler, whom we rented in 2024 before he signed a big contract with Boston, is now Motown-bound as the Sox shipped him to the Tigers for an OF prospect.

December 10: First big free agent signing of the winter as the Angels ink 2B Andres Gimenez to a massive 5/193 pact. Gimenez has averaged over 6 WAR the last three seasons so he certainly warrants it.

December 14: And in the biggest news of the offseason so far, two-way star and reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani, who opted out of his deal with the Cardinals, joins the Washington Nationals on a 5/170 deal.

December 18: After two years in St. Louis former Rays reliever Colin Poche signed a 1/5.3 deal with Texas.


December 20: Reliever Devin "The Airbender" Williams signed a 3/24 contract with Boston.

December 22: Added IF Cooper Kinney, 3B Willy Vasquez, SP Joel Diaz and RP Israel Mateo to the 40-man roster.

Kinney and Diaz were discussed in the previous post, Vasquez is a solid 3B option should anything happen to ELDC (although Masyn Winn would probably get first crack), and Mateo is a reliever with 75 stuff I don't want to lose in the Rule 5 Draft.

December 23: The Rule 5 Draft was kind of a dud with only six players taken, nobody from our organization.

December 28: Wyatt Langford, the #1 overall pick by Pittsburgh in 2023, was unceremoniously dealt to Philly for veteran pitcher Sean Newcomb and a middling prospect. Langford hasn't developed as hoped, now with 50 contact and 55 power potential and has hit 252/315/328 with only 3 homers in 352 AB over parts of the last two years with the big club.

December 29: Freddie Freeman signed a 2/48 extension with the Dodgers.

December 30: Former Ray Pete Fairbanks, who came back from injury and pitched well for Atlanta late last year, agreed to a 2/10 deal with the Phillies. The Phils also signed former Rays pitcher Yonny Chirinos for a year at $1.2M.

We also made an interesting signing:



Hirata was part of the international free agent class that came over last month and looks to be a potentially useful middle infielder with some pop and patience (albeit not much contact). We're kind of set on the infield with Wander/Carson/ELDC but depth is always good.

December 31: Some big signings as the year ends with former Rays Cy Young winner Blake Snell leaving San Diego for a 4/62 deal up the coast with Oakland, the Phillies continued to beef up their bullpen with top closer David Bednar (3/29), and longtime Astros starter Luis Garcia signed with Washington for 4/66 where he joins the other Luis Garcia, the Nats' star 2B.

[Art Deco]

January 5: Former Rays reliever Jalen Beeks, a god in this save, signed a 5/79 deal with the Cubs after two years in the Mets' rotation with a sub-3 ERA.

January 6: Veteran and perennial Gold Glove 3B Matt Chapman signed a 3/56 contract with Seattle.

January 12: Former Red Sock and Rockie Trevor Story joins Baltimore for 4/55 while former San Diego CF Trent Grisham is a Brewer on a 3/56 deal.

January 13: Welcome to the Hall of Fame, Icihro! He was the only inductee as the voting went like this:

RF Ichiro Suzuki 80.5 (3rd year) Inducted HOF
C Joe Mauer 67.7 (4th year)
CF Carlos Beltran 66.1 (5th year)
SP CC Sabathia 64.5 (3rd year)
CF Andruw Jones 58.8 (10th year) Dropped
SS Alex Rodriguez 48.2 (6th year)
C Buster Posey 45.7 (1st year)

End of the road for Andruw Jones while Posey made the best showing of the newly-eligible.

January 14: Dylan Lee, last seen pitching for us, is now a Yankee on a 3/21 deal. New York wasn't done beefing up its pen and also added Raisel Iglesias on a 2/16 contract.

January 16: Another big name reliever is on the move as Josh Hader joined the A's for 3/32.

January 21: The Cubs made a splash by signing perhaps the best starter on the free agent market. Walker Buehler is on board at 5/113.

January 25: The Reds inked a starter as Zac Gallen gets 2/30.

We signed a potential stud in the international amateur market:



Already ranked the #11 prospect overall! We'll see him about 4-5 years I guess.

January 26: The preseason begins, and Stu gives me an $8M payroll bump which means we have $16M to play with. Other than a deal that costs us more salary I don't see signing a free agent.

January 30: How the mighty have fallen. Bo Bichette had to settle for a minor league deal with the Mets.

January 31: Paul Goldschmidt gets a 1/15 deal with Texas.

February 26: Crushing news for the Brewers on the opening day of Spring Training games as ace Corbin Burnes tore his rotator cuff and his season is over before it got started.

February 27: Placed OF Jackson Chourio on the 10-day IL with a rotator cuff strain. He's going to be out through mid-April unfortunately.

February 28: And now Taj Bradley has strained a back muscle and will be out 3 weeks. What is going on here?

March 1: There goes Drew Rasmussen, leaving us for the Padres on a 1-year, $3.1M contract. A bunch of other vets still languishing on the market also signed one-year deals: Joey Gallo (TOR, 3.8), Brandon Drury (SF, 4.1), Anthony Santander (TEX, 3.3), Willy Adames (TOR, 5), and Jeff McNeil (CLE, 9.7). Minor league deals were signed by Christian Walker (MIL) and Gleyber Torres (NYY, ha!).

March 2: Sandy Alcantara joins the Angels for 1/7.7. I was considering making a pitch for him but I like the rotation.

Look who's back!



Needed some OF depth, particularly a RH batter, so why not?

[Art Deco]

Signed a couple of vets to minor league deals with OFs Cody Bellinger and Nick Castellanos joining the fold. Castellanos has a broken kneecap and won't start playing until June. We looked good this spring going 18-9-2 but Jeffrey Springs strained an oblique and will be out until late April. To take his place in the rotation we're going with prospect Joel Diaz, who impressed in March and we decided to leave the likes of Hall and Pepiot in the pen.

The Opening Day Roster:

C-Langeliers, Bailey
1B-Casas
2B-W.Franco
SS-C.Williams
3B-E.De La Cruz
IF-Winn, L.Acuna (OF)
LF-B.Jones
CF-Auer
RF-Alcantara
DH-C.Mitchell, Caminero

A lot of positional versatility here with Luisangel Acuna (who was out of options) able to play all over the IF as well as the corners, and Caminero capable of playing 1B, 2B and 3B. He'll platoon with Casas at 1B while we'll get Winn and Acuna to platoon with Mitchell at DH and of course Mitchell can play the OF. Someone will need to go down in about a week when Jackson Chourio comes off the IL, likelly Alcantara or Caminero.

SP-McClanahan, Bradley, Brash, W.Santana, J.Diaz
LR-Pepiot, DL Hall
MR-Juenger, Costume, Moran, Perkins
SU-Cleavinger, S.Dominguez
CL-Doval

IL-Springs, Chourio, Petty (out until about June 1 with a partially torn UCL)

The preseason predictions:



Interesting that Baltimore is pegged for first after being so bad last year. And look who's listed among the top AL pitchers - none other than Joel Diaz, who isn't even really supposed to be in the rotation if not for the Springs injury.

We'll find out how good Baltimore really is right off the bat as we open at Camden Yards for 3 games.

[Art Deco]

Forgot to include this in the previous post.



A tough OD loss for the Rays as Kevin Alcantara dramatically tied it up with a 2-out homer in the 9th only for Mason Auer to hit into a double play in the top of the 10th and Baltimore managed to plate the ghost runner in the bottom of the inning on a groundout and sac fly. Big opener for Wander, who had a 2-run homer and an RBI double for the first 3 Rays runs but not enough.

[Art Deco]

Record: 13-13
2nd place AL East, 4 behind Toronto, 1/2 game behind third wild card

Somehow an offense that led the league in runs scored last season and returned intact for can't buy a run in 2027 and despite an incredible month of pitching the Rays find themselves at .500. Just look at these scores from April:



A lot of the binary baseball being played with 15 of the 26 games seeing at least one of the teams involved scoring 0 or 1. It was a remarkably injury-free month and we got Jackson Chourio back on the 11th and Jeffrey Springs for the final game of the month.





And if you thought I was kidding in the opening paragraph, you can see these team stats throwing the pitching/hitting disparity in stark relief. 237/305/359 is a batting line that gets you booted from the lineup except with this team right now it is the lineup. And again this is the same collection of hitters which led the league in runs last year. Our Pythagorean record says we should be three games better and that's largely due to a 1-6 record in one-run games. Normally you'd be looking at the bullpen as the culprit in these situations but they only really blew one game this month; instead it's the anemic bats. And here's how anemic they are on an individual basis:




Sorted by OPS instead of WAR to give an idea of who's hitting and who's not, with very few in the former category. Chourio has been a notable exception, Carson Williams has picked up where he's left off and probably should be batting higher than his customary 9-hole, and Wander Franco has largely done the job. Otherwise it's been disappointment all around and Brock Jones has followed his mediocre second half of 2026 with a miserable April and probably is in the most jeopardy of losing his place in the lineup, perhaps to Luisangel Acuna who has hit in limited action. Obviously this group is better than what they've shown so far so nothing drastic is in the works, but if things aren't better next time I post after May I may be singing a different tune.

And now for an 180-degree turn:



Just amazing numbers. Matt Brash has been incredible - although his lack of stamina limits him to about 5 innings/start what starts they've been with a 4/46 BB/K ratio in 25 IP has him atop the K and WAR leaderboards in the AL. Nearly as impressive has been rookie Waylin Santana, who turned heads in September and the postseason this year and has lived up to that promise so far. And speaking of rookies, Fernando Costume has been virtually unhittable and is finding himself in higher-leverage roles now. The only starter to struggle was a third rookie, Jose Diaz, who was optioned to Durham when Springs came off the IL. Diaz got his whiffs but was a bit too homer-prone. Had we had last season's offense, with this pitching they could have been 23-3 instead of 13-13.

On the farm:



If we're looking to Durham to boost the offense there are a couple of options. Saggese is MLB-ready to hit and if he could play the OF he might already be up taking at-bats away from Jones. Quelch continues to show off his MLB-caliber power but his contact tool remains a bit questionable. Junior Caminero has disappeared from this list as he lost rookie eligibility last year but is hitting 294/351/574 after being sent down when Chourio came back. And we have vets Randy Arozarena (391/417/636 in 23 AB) and Cody Bellinger (.234 but with 8 HR in 23 games) as OF options with the Bulls.

[Art Deco]

Meant to include this in yesterday's April recap post but as a measure of how bad the offense has gone this season, this happened (and of course they lost 1-0):



Rodriguez faced the minimum but missed out on a perfect game by hitting Mason Auer before picking him off.

[Art Deco]

Record: 34-20 (21-7 for the month)
1st place AL East, 7 games up on Toronto.

What a month! If you recall April saw the Rays in a team-wide batting slump while the pitching was brilliant. In May the pitching remained brilliant and the bats woke up, looking more like the #1 offense they were last season. As a result they pulled off an 11-game turnaround in the standings, going from 4 out of first to 7 up (it did help Toronto was a miserable 10-18 and nobody else in the division has a winning record). And the great month was despite a series of injuries that occurred about midway through as we lost our top lefty relievers Garrett Cleavinger (for a month) and Jovani Moran (for the season) on consecutive days and our superlative second-year shortstop Carson Williams torn an abdominal muscle and will be out until late June. To replace them we added a couple of lefties with swingman Jordan Wicks coming up from Durham and short reliever Andrew Nardi claimed on waivers from Philly.





Despite having a tough year at the plate (.213 BA/.289 OBP) Mason Auer still leads MLB in steals.



When we last checked in a month ago those offensive numbers almost all had ranks in double digits so you can see how far we've come. Averaging 5 runs/game isn't truly eye-popping but that's more than enough to go 21-7 with a staff that continues to dominate like this one (2.86 team ERA).

Speaking of those offensive numbers, here's how the hitters fared in May:



Sorted here by OPS. Our core young star trio of Wander, Elly and Chourio really carried the team this month and only Langeliers and Auer had poor months, although Auer was productive when he did get hits (15 RBI & 16 SB). Kevin Alcantara took over from Brock Jones in LF and was very effective when playing, and Jones himself got hot in a few games at the end of the month, homering in consecutive ones to boost his OPS in limited at-bats. Thomas Saggese was also called up with the Williams injury (technically he was called when Jones was briefly demoted just before) and acquitted himself decently.



Until Seranthony Dominguez no longer pitches for this team I have to open the pitching stats page in a browser because the length of his name messes up the spacing in the game reports. That aside it was another fine month of pitching with Taj regaining his Cy Young form of last year and Camilo Doval pitching like the lockdown closer he should be instead of his up-and-down 2026. Waylin Santana came back to earth thanks to some problems with the longball, which was also an issue for Shane McClanahan, but those are minor nits. Fernando Costume also proved to be human when he gave up a homer in his last appearance of the month but he's been lights-out otherwise.



Joe Quelch is just about ready for a recall but Alcantara and Jones seem to have LF covered for now and the team is winning, and nor would I want to start his arbitration clock sooner than necessary. Joel Diaz has not pitched well since going back to Durham when Jeffrey Springs returned and he's in danger of being surpassed as our top MLB-ready pitching prospect by Braxton Beal, a 3rd-round pick out of college last year who's already thriving at Durham. Beal is probably a 4th starter at best but could be the next call-up in a pinch. He's not show here because he's lost rookie eligibility but Junior Caminero didn't pout after going back to Durham, hitting well there.

So things are looking quite good now that the bats have woken up, and although 2/3 of the season remains I'd like to think we won't blow a 7-game division lead.

Also this happened during the month:

[Art Deco]

Record: 49-30 (15-10 for the month)
1st place AL East, 7 games up on Toronto

We came into June with a 7-game lead and exited with that same lead, off a decent but not great month, closing it out with three losses in the last four games (14-7 looked a lot better). We were fairly injury-free during the month with the only IL stint one for Triston Casas who pulled an abdominal muscle and set to miss the minimum 10 days. Otherwise it was as you were with the Rays still in command of the division.





Nothing not to like here, except perhaps the baserunning which might be too aggressive, giving us negative value despite being 1st in steals. Also we should be doing better than 49-30 according to Pythagoras. It doesn't seem the bullpen is an issue, rather we've won quite a few blowouts but are 9-10 in one-run games. The pitching is stellar, the hitting is very good, and the defense is fine, so no notes.

As we're essentially at the midway mark, it's time for YTD stats:



The big three of Wander, Elly and Chourio continue to carry the team while Luisangel Acuna has filled in admirably for Carson Williams (who just went on a rehab assignment at the end of the month), and Kevin Alcantara has been holding his own getting to play most every day of late as well. Our lefty 5-6 hole guys Casas and Mitchell have been lousy though and they're not going to get too much more time to turn it around.



Some outstanding pitching here and the staff is about to get lefty setup guy Garrett Cleavinger back as he's currently on a rehab assignment. Only Seranthony and Springs struggled in June but that's in relative terms.



Joe Quelch had been floated as a callup possibility but he strained an oblique and won't be back until mid-July. Japanese signing Hirata is an interesting guy but we're really deep in the MI (Williams, Acuna, Winn) so there's little chance he gets recalled.

Next post will be a mid-July update with All-Star Weekend and the draft.

[Art Deco]

A quick spoiler for the first week and a half of July, we've gone 7-3 to improve to 56-33 and are now 8 up on Toronto. The All-Star break features the draft as well as the usual festivities; this post with just contain the draft.



Sosin:



Definite ace potential here, but as a high-schooler it'll be a long road.

Hollon:



High-school catcher is another risky demographic, but Hollon has the chance to be special with 60 or better potential in contact, power and defense. I'll settle for any two of those three coming to fruition.

Bader:





So why not double down on high school catchers? Bader also has the potential to be an impact bat, but lacks Hollon's defensive potential.

Van Buren:



A mistake, pure and simple. I accidentally clicked on "meet demand" when my scouting director recommended him. Thankfully he's a fictional creation so I'm not insulting anybody here as there's nothing about his profile that I particularly like (save perhaps his eye). Now watch him exceed expectations.

Pease:



Yet another high schooler, the Floridian has a broad base of potential tools and I'll most certainly give Pease a chance.

With all high school players at the top it'll be quite a while before the jury is in on this draft but since the current squad skews quite young we're not looking for immediate help.

Next up: the All-Star post.

[Art Deco]

The rosters:

This year's American League standouts are:

SP Matt Brash (TB) - 8-2, 2.13 ERA, 93.0 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 12.5 K/9, 2.5 WAR
SP Daniel Espino (CLE) - 5-2, 3.02 ERA, 80.1 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 1.9 WAR
SP Logan Gilbert (SEA)* - 6-6, 2.34 ERA, 123.0 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 3.0 WAR
SP Nick Hamilton (OAK) - 1-1, 2.15 ERA, 50.1 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 1.6 WAR
SP Adrian Morejon (NYY) - 6-0, 2.87 ERA, 94.0 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.1 WAR
SP Patrick Reilly (KC) - 6-8, 3.68 ERA, 102.2 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 1.3 WAR
SP Waylin Santana (TB) - 11-2, 2.28 ERA, 94.2 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.2 WAR
RP Garrett Crochet (CLE) - 4-2, 3.15 ERA, 54.1 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 0.7 WAR
RP Hector Neris (SEA) - 6-1, 2.66 ERA, 44.0 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 0.6 WAR
RP Trevor Rogers (KC) - 1-2, 2.51 ERA, 46.2 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 0.4 WAR
RP JP Sears (KC) - 2-1, 2.90 ERA, 49.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 0.1 WAR
RP Calvin Ziegler (CLE) - 7-4, 3.84 ERA, 79.2 IP, 1.36 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.4 WAR
CL Jose Alvarado (MIN) - 3-3, 21 SV, 1.63 ERA, 27.2 IP, 1.08 WHIP, 12.7 K/9, 1.6 WAR (Injured)
CL Emmanuel Clase (CLE)* - 1-5, 23 SV, 2.23 ERA, 32.1 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 0.4 WAR
C Leonardo Bernal (OAK) - .268/.319/.490, 257 AB, 12 HR, 4 SB, 123 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
C Edgar Quero (LAA)* - .275/.383/.373, 255 AB, 4 HR, 1 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
C Adley Rutschman (BAL) - .229/.294/.412, 284 AB, 10 HR, 94 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
1B Rafael Devers (BOS) - .261/.329/.522, 337 AB, 19 HR, 2 SB, 132 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
1B Paul Goldschmidt (TEX)* - .302/.365/.536, 334 AB, 20 HR, 1 SB, 149 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
1B Nick Kurtz (DET) - .300/.379/.484, 310 AB, 16 HR, 1 SB, 141 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
1B Coby Mayo (BAL) - .251/.290/.518, 342 AB, 24 HR, 2 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
1B Andrew Vaughn (CWS) - .287/.348/.512, 324 AB, 18 HR, 137 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
1B Brock Wilken (NYY) - .264/.309/.526, 329 AB, 24 HR, 128 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
2B Brooks Lee (DET) - .294/.368/.435, 333 AB, 5 HR, 10 SB, 123 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
2B Trevor Story (BAL)* - .293/.374/.487, 232 AB, 13 HR, 5 SB, 140 wRC+, 1.2 WAR (Injured)
3B Elly De La Cruz (TB)* - .265/.312/.491, 336 AB, 18 HR, 21 SB, 116 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (LAA) - .336/.399/.590, 295 AB, 15 HR, 172 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
SS Wander Franco (TB)* - .353/.395/.548, 334 AB, 9 HR, 16 SB, 165 wRC+, 4.3 WAR
SS Gunnar Henderson (BAL)* - .277/.379/.480, 321 AB, 15 HR, 9 SB, 137 wRC+, 3.5 WAR
LF Lars Nootbaar (HOU)* - .270/.337/.604, 326 AB, 32 HR, 158 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
CF Jackson Chourio (TB) - .277/.323/.475, 318 AB, 15 HR, 13 SB, 115 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
CF Riley Greene (DET) - .309/.367/.469, 337 AB, 11 HR, 4 SB, 130 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
CF Jacob Melton (TOR)* - .276/.353/.433, 330 AB, 12 HR, 15 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (SEA)* - .299/.373/.528, 284 AB, 17 HR, 30 SB, 151 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
RF Aaron Judge (NYY) - .269/.365/.624, 197 AB, 20 HR, 169 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
RF Samuel Zavala (BOS) - .323/.393/.505, 285 AB, 9 HR, 10 SB, 151 wRC+, 2.9 WAR

The National League stars will be represented by:

SP Maddux Bruns (LAD) - 7-4, 1.73 ERA, 98.2 IP, 0.85 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 3.0 WAR
SP Bubba Chandler (PIT)* - 10-4, 2.86 ERA, 122.2 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 13.6 K/9, 3.2 WAR
SP Logan Henderson (MIL) - 8-3, 2.53 ERA, 128.0 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 3.4 WAR
SP Tyler Mahle (SF) - 4-6, 3.28 ERA, 98.2 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.8 WAR
SP Shohei Ohtani (WSH) - 7-6, 3.56 ERA, 111.1 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 10.8 K/9, 2.9 WAR
SP Oliver Roque (CHC) - 3-6, 3.41 ERA, 87.0 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 2.9 WAR
SP Kyle Wright (ATL) - 9-3, 1.92 ERA, 121.2 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 3.4 WAR
RP Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 3-2, 1.88 ERA, 52.2 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 1.7 WAR
RP David Bednar (PHI) - 3-3, 2.04 ERA, 35.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 0.9 WAR
RP Roansy Contreras (CHC) - 3-2, 7 SV, 2.82 ERA, 51.0 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 0.9 WAR
RP Spencer Howard (STL) - 4-1, 2.47 ERA, 47.1 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 0.5 WAR
RP Reynaldo Lopez (PHI)* - 3-1, 1.82 ERA, 34.2 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 0.6 WAR
CL Andrew Baker (PHI) - 1-2, 28 SV, 2.80 ERA, 35.1 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 1.3 WAR
C Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - .281/.430/.522, 178 AB, 11 HR, 1 SB, 167 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
C Diego Cartaya (PIT)* - .277/.377/.490, 249 AB, 12 HR, 144 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
C Will Smith (NYM) - .264/.353/.446, 148 AB, 7 HR, 129 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
1B Bobby Marsh (LAD) - .315/.423/.536, 295 AB, 15 HR, 169 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
1B Matt Mervis (MIA) - .280/.338/.564, 307 AB, 23 HR, 149 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
1B Miguel Vargas (CHC) - .302/.342/.540, 341 AB, 19 HR, 143 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
2B Luis Garcia (WSH)* - .321/.348/.569, 364 AB, 24 HR, 2 SB, 150 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
3B Nolan Arenado (STL) - .252/.315/.475, 322 AB, 19 HR, 1 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
3B Cam Collier (CIN) - .291/.379/.512, 320 AB, 16 HR, 2 SB, 146 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B Oneil Cruz (PIT) - .315/.368/.524, 340 AB, 14 HR, 2 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.8 WAR
3B Nolan Jones (MIA)* - .283/.341/.507, 286 AB, 15 HR, 137 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
3B Austin Riley (ATL)* - .268/.330/.438, 347 AB, 12 HR, 1 SB, 113 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
SS Armando Cruz (WSH) - .309/.339/.471, 333 AB, 11 HR, 8 SB, 121 wRC+, 4.2 WAR
SS Vaughn Grissom (ATL)* - .269/.343/.440, 323 AB, 11 HR, 11 SB, 118 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
LF John Kramer (PHI) - .302/.352/.528, 341 AB, 20 HR, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
LF Bryan Reynolds (LAD)* - .331/.394/.508, 242 AB, 9 HR, 155 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
CF Harrison Bader (COL)* - .286/.330/.503, 308 AB, 13 HR, 5 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
RF Corbin Carroll (AZ)* - .316/.380/.592, 228 AB, 11 HR, 17 SB, 167 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
RF Bryce Harper (PHI) - .309/.382/.560, 259 AB, 14 HR, 2 SB, 157 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)* - .307/.387/.690, 319 AB, 33 HR, 7 SB, 196 wRC+, 5.4 WAR
RF Jordan Walker (STL) - .282/.347/.568, 354 AB, 26 HR, 28 SB, 154 wRC+, 4.1 WAR

Wander was the top vote-getter in all of MLB and will start at SS even though he really doesn't play there anymore. It's his 3rd appearance while it's the 2nd for Elly De La Cruz, first for Jackson Chourio and the first for pitchers Matt Brash and (rookie) Waylin Santana.

The Home Run Derby (with no Rays):



The All-Star Game:



Not a great night for the Junior Circuit as the NL romped. Rays hitters were a combined 1-9 with Chourio's double the lone it while Elly committed an error. Brash struggled in his inning of work as did Santana to a lesser extent.

[Art Deco]

I alluded to this in one of my Rays LiveStart posts, but I have a bit of a Wander Franco problem with my various Rays saves given what's happened in real life and the real possibility he isn't seen in MLB or on the Rays again. So it's now kind of weird and a little harder to suspend disbelief with that in mind as he's still on the squad in my 21 save (now in 2035), my 22 save (now in 2030) and this one (now in 2027). Of course there's also the possibility that this blows over and he's back with Tampa Bay next year but we just don't know.

All of this as you might suspect (given the post title) is a long-winded prologue to say that I've traded him away in this save. This splits the difference between the possible outcomes which range from getting to keep one of the game's best players to getting nothing for him. As it is he's currently leading the AL in WAR here in 2027 and I wouldn't otherwise be undertaking a major roster makeover of a team with the best record in baseball. So without further ado, here's the trade:



Sent him to an NL team so we wouldn't have to worry about him until the World Series (a possibility this year with the Dodgers at 57-34, second-best behind us). And we got a darn good return in Marsh, a rookie 1B who's on pace for over 6 WAR himself:



While he probably won't be a 40-HR slugging 1B, he looks like a young Freddie Freeman with his solid power and .400+ OBP. Also whereas we were paying Wander $25M a year now as the big salaries in his long-term contract have kicked in, Marsh of course is making the minimum. And in continuing a trend I started with the trade for Mason Auer a couple of years ago, I've re-acquired a prospect I previously traded away in Peguero, who has 75 stuff and had 23 saves for LA this year. Had to also give up Sandy Gaston, but he's kind of iffy to make an impact. So in many respects this was a deal which was completely defensible without the real-life baggage of Wander, even if my AGM and the fans (the interest "almost crashed") didn't like it.

But I wasn't done dealing:



I've grown disenchanted with Mitchell, who in a little over a year hasn't hit like he did at Texas where he was acquired from last season. And although we had other alternatives at 2B (Winn, L.Acuna) with Carson Williams ready to return at SS, I went out and got a really good one in Cabrera, who showed remarkable consistency the last two years with the Yankees, hitting 22 HR in both seasons, driving in 85 & 86 runs and earning 7.9 WAR combined. Now he has missed all but the last three weeks of the season with a concussion he suffered at the end of last year but already hit 4 HR in 62 AB so he seems fine. An incentive on the Yankees' end is money as Cabrera is making $7.8M this year and is likely due $13M next year in arbitration while Mitchell is several million cheaper. Marsh will take over Mitchell's job as DH.

Meanwhile, Williams comes off the IL to take over SS and OF Brock Jones and P Ryan Pepiot were optioned to Durham. Jones' bat has been iffy and with Williams and Cabrera aboard, Luisangel Acuna will play the OF after filling in so well for Williams at SS. Pepiot had been inconsistent this year in long relief so we're going to let him start at Durham. Meanwhile Peguero will move into a setup role in front of Camilo Doval and be our closer next year when Doval goes free agent.


Phew!

[Art Deco]

I'd say things went well, as our new keystone combo of Cabrera (in his first game as a Ray) and Williams (in his first game back after two months) both homered and the Rays rolled over the Mets:



By the way Wander was 2-5 with a homer and 4 RBI in his Dodger debut, a 13-6 loss in Toronto.

[Art Deco]

Record: 68-36 (19-6 for the month)
1st place AL East, 13 1/2 games up on Toronto

So how did the Rays react to the major shakeup in mid-month which saw Wander Franco sent packing? They merely went 12-3 including winning 11 of their final 12 games of the month to open up a likely insurmountable lead unless they're the second coming of the 1978 Red Sox. The only negative during the month was Carson Williams tearing a thumb ligament in only his fourth game back after missing two months with a torn abdominal muscle. But between Luisangel Acuna, Masyn Winn and Oswaldo Cabrera we have more than enough middle infield cover. Here's how the month played out:





Amazingly this team should be doing even better as we're 4 games worse than our Pythagorean record. First in runs scored which is something considering how horrible this team hit in April, and look at those run prevention numbers - first in almost everything pitching-wise and near the top in defense. So we're essentially in a two-month waiting game to see if this team can finally get over the hump in October. They'll be the favorites in the AL but it won't mean anything except they get to skip the Wild Card round.



Wander's final 9 days with the Rays were very productive but so was his replacement (Cabrera) as well as the guy we received in trade for him (Marsh). It didn't matter that guys like Elly, Auer and Langeliers were largely awful in July as several others excelled. Triston Casas turned into the top-notch hitter we thought he could be after a miserable first half and Kevin Alcantara has taken over the LF job and run (or should I say hit) with it, driving in 23 in 20 games, salvaging the Miguel Vargas trade as he's having an all-star season with the Cubs. Brock Jones may be a lost cause though.



Matthew Peguero, also acquired in the Wander trade, was just about perfect in his 8 appearances, and Seranthony Dominguez seems to be shaking off an inconsistent first half as the bullpen was lights-out for the month. Waylin Santana's magical rookie season continues apace, and the rotation was largely solid despite off-months from Shane and Taj.



2027 draftees Sosin, Bader and Hollon slot in at 3, 6, and 9 respectively on our top prospect list, giving the farm system a boost after it had graduated several of its leading lights. Just noticed Quelch is 26 now (man he was an old draftee) and he just recently came back from an injury. I'd like to see his power bat in the bigs but there's really no place for him right now with Alcantara becoming a middle-of-the-order beast.

We did have a couple of pitchers honored by their leagues for July - veteran Griffin Canning was the IL pitcher of the month at Durham, and Montgomery's Santiago Suarez (our #14 prospect) won the same award in the Southern League. Canning is depth we'll probably not call on while Suarez has pedestrian stuff and is kind of a longshot.

So basically now it's two months of hoping nobody else gets hurt as we gear up for the playoffs.