384 to 1 -- Massive playdown to crown Greatest Team of All Time

[rockford]

[rockford]

I mentioned way back at the start of this thread that one of my reasons for running the GTOAT tourney was to reacquaint myself with OOTP, and expand my enjoyment of it. Up 'til now, I've only used OOTP for fictional leagues.


Well, it has been damn fun running this simulation, in what has essentially been an "out of the box" fashion. But now the learning curve ...


I assumed I could count on the game to provide mostly accurate lineups and pitching rotations. But as the Homer Hillebrand incident revealed, that's not the case.


After starting Pool 4, it was obvious one of the Dead Ball teams was getting an unfair advantage by elevating another Homer-like pitcher to the top of rotation. Taking a look around the pool, every team I looked at was doing the same -- elevating a pitcher who ranked sixth or seventh in starts to the top of a four-man rotation.


Well, hell.


So ... play will resume -- but only after making sure all rotations include pitchers who statistically belong there.


I found that by setting all teams to be controlled by me, and then clicking "GM-only users are always in control of lineups," the rotations remain static.


Then we'll see how the AI is cheating with lineups.

[rockford]

The 2017 Nationals are looking to become the third 21st century team to qualify for the Semifinals, and it looks like they have the pitching (Max Scherzer 16-6, 2.51 ERA and Stephen Strasburg 15-4, 2.52 ERA) and the power (Ryan Zimmerman .303, 36 HR; Daniel Murphy .322, 23 HR and Bryce Harper .319, 29 HR) to make it happen.


If successful, the Nationals will become the lowest original seed (288th) to make it to the Semis so far. They leapt to the 4th seed in the Quarterfinals after posting a .627 win percentage in the First Chance.


On the other hand, the 2019 Nationals also looked formidable before getting the bum’s rush earlier in the Quarters, finishing pool play with just a .480 win percentage.


Two versions of the Bronx Bombers – the 1927 Yankees and the 1941 Yankees – have the power to contend, but may lack the pitching to succeed.


Of course, the ’27 Yanks have the fearsome one-two punch of Babe Ruth (.356, 60 HR) and Lou Gehrig (.373, 47 HR). But are Waite Hoyt, Urban Shocker and Herb Pennock up to the challenge of facing other legendary bats? The ’27 team put up a respectable .549 win percentage in the First Chance but failed to qualify. A similar showing in the Second Chance saw them finishing fourth in that tournament.


The ’41 Yanks should get plenty of offense from the likes of Joe DiMaggio (.357, 30 HR) and Charlie Keller (.298, 33 HR). But with the team’s top pitchers (Lefty Gomez and Red Ruffing) sporting ERAs above 3.50, opponents are salivating.


The 1939 Yankees, however, may have the arms to go with the bats. Gomez and Ruffing had better years, with Ruffing going 21-7, 2.93 ERA, and they’ll be aided by Bump Hadley (12-6, 2.98 ERA). Offensively, DiMaggio (.381, 30 HR), George Selkirk (.306, 21 HR) and Joe Gordon (.284, 28 HR) and company shouldn’t have any trouble scoring runs.


Two Dead Ball-era teams have the requisite pitching to be serious threats in this tournament. The 1909 Pirates have Howie Camnitz (25-6, 1.62 ERA), Vic Willis (22-11, 2.24 ERA) and Nick Maddox (13-8, 2.21 ERA). Toss in Honus Wagner (.339, 5 HR, 35 SB) – who always seems to perform well in these simulations – and you have a real threat. The ’09 Bucs were seeded 3rd at the very start of the tourney.


The 1910 A’s rotation is a fearsome foursome of HOFers Chief Bender (23-5, 1.58 ERA) and Eddie Plank (16-10, 2.01 ERA) plus Jack Coombs (31-9, 1.30 ERA) and Cy Morgan (18-12, 1.55 ERA). The offense remains questionable, though led by HOFers Home Run Baker (.283, 2 HR, 21 SB) and Eddie Collins (.324, 3 HR, 81 SB).


Another team relying heavily on pitching is the 2019 Dodgers, who have Hyun Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA) and Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03). With Justin Turner (.290, 27 HR) and Cody Bellinger (.305, 47 HR), they may have enough talent to contend.


The 1969 Orioles are looking to join their ’71 brothers in the Semis. To get there, they’ll have to go through the 1966 Orioles, who are in the same league. The ’69 squad looks to have the better staff, with Jim Palmer (16-4, 2.34 ERA) and Mike Cuellar (23-11, 2.38 ERA), plus plenty of pop from Boog Powell (.304, 37 HR) and Frank Robinson (.308, 32 HR).


One team worth watching purely for the offensive fireworks is the 1922 Browns, who feature HOFer George Sisler (.420, 8 HR, 51 SB) plus Ken Williams (.332, 39 HR, 37 SB).

[rockford]

LEAGUE 1
2017 Nationals
97-65
1st in NL East; lost division series in five games to Cubs
HOF – N/A
Notable – Ryan Zimmerman (303, 36 HR), Daniel Murphy (.322, 23 HR), Bryce Harper (.319, 29 HR), Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.51 ERA), Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 2.52 ERA), Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96 ERA)
Originally seeded 288th; .627 in First Chance, 4th

1969 Orioles
109-53
1st in AL East; lost World Series in five games to Mets
HOF – Jim Palmer (16-4, 2.34 ERA), Brooks Robinson (.234, 23 HR), Frank Robinson (.308, 32 HR)
Notable – Boog Powell (.304, 37 HR), Paul Blair (.285, 26 HR, 20 SB), Mike Cueller (23-11, 2.38 ERA)
Originally seeded 31st; .592 in First Chance, 16th

1941 Yankees
101-53-2
1st in AL; won World Series in five games over Dodgers
HOF – Bill Dickey (.284, 7 HR), Joe DiMaggio (.357, 30 HR), Lefty Gomez (15-5, 3.74 ERA), Joe Gordon (.276, 24 HR), Phil Rizzuto (.307, 3 HR), Red Ruffing (15-6, 3.54 ERA)
Notable – Charlie Keller (.298, 33 HR), Tommy Henrich (.277, 31 HR)
Originally seeded 48th; .573 in First Chance, 28th

1939 Cardinals
92-61-2
2nd in NL (4.5 games behind Reds)
HOF – Joe Medwick (.332, 14 HR), Johnny Mize (.349, 28 HR), Enos Slaughter (.320, 12 HR)
Notable – Curt Davis (22-16, 3.63 ERA), Mort Cooper (12-6, 3.25 ERA)
Originally seeded 272nd; .564 in First Chance, 40th

1962 Giants
103-62
1st in NL; lost World Series in seven games to Yankees
HOF – Orlando Cepeda (.306, 35 HR), Juan Marichal (18-11, 3.36 ERA), Willie Mays (.304, 49 JR), Willie McCovey (.293, 20 HR), Gaylord Perry
Notable – Felipe Alou (.316, 25 HR), Jack Sanford (24-7, 3.43 ERA)
Originally seeded 138th; .558 in First Chance, 52nd

1966 Orioles
97-63
1st in AL; won World Series in four games over Dodgers
HOF – Luis Aparicio (.276, 6 HR, 25 SB), Jim Palmer (15-10, 3.46 ERA), Brooks Robinson (.269, 23 HR), Frank Robinson (.316, 49 HR)
Notable – Boog Powell (.287, 34 HR), Dave McNally (13-6, 3.17 ERA), Steve Barber (10-5, 2.30 ERA)
Originally seeded 235th; .544 in First Chance, 81st

1927 Yankees
110-44-1
1st in AL; won World Series in five games over Pirates
HOF – Earle Combs (.356, 6 HR), Lou Gehrig (.373, 47 HR), Waite Hoyt (22-7, 2.63 ERA), Tony Lazzeri (.309, 18 HR, 22 SB), Herb Pennock (19-8, 3.00 ERA), Babe Ruth (.356, 60 HR)
Notable – Bob Meusel (.337, 8 HR, 24 SB), Urban Shocker (18-6, 2.84 ERA)
Originally seeded 7th; .549 in First Chance, 68th; .545 in Second Chance, 4th in tournament

1992 Braves
98-64
1st in NL West; lost World Series in six games to Blue Jays
HOF – Tom Glavine (20-8, 2.76 ERA), John Smoltz (15-12, 2.85 ERA)
Notable – Terry Pendleton (.311, 21 HR), Otis Nixon (.294, 41 SB)
Originally seeded 242nd; .533 in First Chance, 104th; .506 in Second Chance; .550 in Last Chance, 4th in tournament


LEAGUE 2
1939 Yankees
106-45-1
1st in AL; won World Series in four games over Reds
HOF – Bill Dickey (.302, 24 HR), Joe DiMaggio (.381, 30 HR), Lou Gehrig (.143, 0 HR), Lefty Gomez 912-8, 3.41 ERA), Joe Gordon (.284, 28 HR), Red Ruffing (21-7, 2.93 ERA)
Notable – Red Rolfe (,329, 14 HR), Charlie Keller (.334, 11 HR), George Selkirk (.306, 21 HR), Bump Hadley (12-6, 2.98 ERA)
Originally seeded 11th; .612 in First Chance, 10th

2019 Dodgers
106-56
1st in NL West; lost division series in five games to Nationals
HOF – N/A
Notable – Justin Turner (.290, 27 HR), Cody Bellinger (.305, 47 HR), Hyun Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03)
Originally seeded 55th; .582 in First Chance, 22nd

1931 Yankees
94-59-2
2nd in AL (13.5 games behind A’s)
HOF – Earle Combs (.318, 5 HR), Bill Dickey (.327, 6 HR), Lou Gehrig (.341, 46 HR), Lefty Gomez (21-9, 2.67 ERA), Tony Lazzeri (.267, 8 HR), Herb Pennock (11-6, 4.28 ERA), Red Ruffing (16-14, 4.41 ERA), Babe Ruth (.373, 46 HR), Joe Sewell (.302, 6 HR)
Notable – Ben Chapman (.315, 17 HR, 61 SB)
Originally seeded 197th; .569 in First Chance, 34th

1909 Pirates
110-42-2
1st in NL; won World Series in seven games over Tigers
HOF – Fred Clarke (.287, 3 HR, 31 SB), Honus Wagner (.339, 5 HR, 35 SB), Vic Willis (22-11, 2.24 ERA)
Notable – Howie Camnitz (25-6, 1.62 ERA), Nick Maddiox (13-8, 2.21 ERA)
Originally seeded 3rd; .562 in First Chance, 46th

1910 A’s
102-48-5
1st in AL; won World Series in five games over Cubs
HOF – Home Run Baker (.283, 2 HR, 21 SB), Chief Bender (23-5, 1.58 ERA), Eddie Collins (.324, 3 HR, 81 SB), Eddie Plank (16-10, 2.01 ERA)
Notable – Rube Oldring (.308, 4 HR), Danny Murphy (.300, 4 HR), Jack Coombs (31-9, 1.30 ERA), Cy Morgan (18-12, 1.55 ERA)
Originally seeded 25th; .551 in First Chance, 66th

1922 Browns
93-61
2nd in AL (1 game behind Yankees)
HOF – George Sisler (.420, 8 HR, 51 SB)
Notable – Hank Severeid (.321, 3 HR), Ken Williams (.332, 39 HR, 37 SB), Baby Doll Jacobson (.317, 9 HR, 19 SB), Jack Tobin (.331, 13 HR), Urban Shocker (24-17, 2.97 ERA), Elam Vangilder (19-13, 3.42 ERA)
Originally seeded 260th; .529 in First Chance, 111th

2003 Yankees
101-61-1
1st in AL East; lost World Series in six games to Marlins
HOF – Derek Jeter (.324, 10 HR), Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40 ERA), Mariano Rivera (5-2, 1.66 ERA, 40 SV)
Notable – Jorge Posada (.281, 30 HR), Jason Giambi (.250, 41 HR), Alfonso Soriano (.290, 38 HR), Roger Clemens (17-9, 3.91 ERA)
Originally seeded 141st; .535 in First Chance, 103rd; .529 in Second Chance, tied for 10th in tourney

1940 Tigers
90-64-1
1st in AL; lost World Series in seven games to Reds
HOF – Earl Averill, Charlie Gehringer (.313, 10 HR), Hank Greenberg (.340, 41 HR), Hal Newhouser (9-9, 4.86)
Notable – Rudy York (.316, 33 HR), Barney McCosky (.340, 4 HR), Bobo Newsom (21-5, 2.83 ERA), Schoolboy Rowe (16-3, 3.46 ERA)
Originally seeded 340th; .515 in First Chance, 150th; .539 in Last Chance, 9th in tournament

[rockford]

Standings after three seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses):


GB
--- 1909 Pirates .554 (2-2)
3 2017 Nationals .552 (2-1)
3 1992 Braves .552 (1-0)
10 1969 Orioles .532
19 1941 Yankees .513
19 1939 Yankees .513
21 1910 A’s .509
22 1962 Giants .506
23 2019 Dodgers .504 (1-0)
25 1931 Yankees .500
30 2003 Yankees .489
35 1940 Tigers .478
36 1927 Yankees .476
43 1939 Cardinals .461
47 1922 Browns .452
58 1966 Orioles .429

Thirty-five-year-old Honus Wagner won a pair of MVPs (.363, 19 HR and .359, 25 HR) and Howie Camnitz (21-11) took home a Pitcher of the Year award and had a runner-up finish as the 1909 Pirates won two championships in the first three seasons of play.


The Pirates stand atop Pool 4 with .554 winning percentage.


The 2017 Nationals lived up to their billing, winning two pennants and a championship, and are lurking just three games behind the Bucs. Max Scherzer (22-11, 3.23 ERA) won a POTY, and Stephen Strasburg had a second-place finish. The Nationals have four players – Anthony Rendon, Michael A. Taylor, Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper – ranked 5th through 8th in overall MVP voting. Zimmerman and Harper have each finished second in MVP voting.


The big surprise in pool play is the 1992 Braves, who are tied with the Nationals at just three games off the lead. Tom Glavine (22-11, 2.43 ERA) has a POTY award. The Braves were originally seeded 242nd, and didn’t qualify for the Quarterfinals until the Last Chance tourney, where they finished fourth.


The 1969 Orioles have also been impressive, with Mike Cuellar (19-15, 2.92 ERA) winning one POTY and putting up a second-place finish


Babe Ruth of the 1927 Yankees has won three straight unanimous MVP awards (.320, 56 HR; .329, 56 HR and .304, 50 HR). But the Yanks are mired in 13th place with just a .476 win percentage.

[rockford]

Standings after six seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses):


GB
--- 1909 Pirates .566 (4-3)
17 1992 Braves .548 (2-1)
29 1941 Yankees .535 (1-1)
30 2017 Nationals .534 (3-1)
32 1910 A’s .531 (1-0)
46 1969 Orioles .516
70 1962 Giants .512
56 1939 Yankees .505
62 1940 Tigers .499
66 2019 Dodgers .495 (1-0)
70 1931 Yankees .490
81 2003 Yankees .478
92 1939 Cardinals .466
98 1927 Yankees .460
116 1966 Orioles .440
121 1922 Browns .435

The 1909 Pirates won two more pennants and a championship to push their winning percentage to .566 and open up a respectable lead atop the pool after six seasons.


Honus Wagner led the way, grabbing three more seasonal MVP awards -- .349, 20 HR; .320, 25 HR and .333, 19 HR. Howie Camnitz (25-8, 2.61 ERA) took home his second Pitcher of the Year award.


The surprising 1992 Braves won a second pennant and their first championship, and took sole possession of second place, 17 games back. Tom Glavine (23-10, 2.85 ERA) won his second POTY, while Steve Avery and John Smoltz had runner-up finishes. Deion Sanders finished second in voting for a seasonal MVP.


Joe DiMaggio (.328, 36 HR) won an MVP and Spud Chandler (21-10, 2.40 ERA) got a POTY while helping the 1941 Yankees move into third place after capturing their first pennant and championship.


The 2017 Nationals slid to fourth place, one game behind the Yanks, but with a .534 win percentage are in excellent position to qualify for the Semifinals.


Superior pitching has been the key for the 1910 A’s, who won their first pennant and moved up from seventh to fifth place. Jack Coombs (22-13, 3.07 ERA) won his second POTY, Eddie Plank (21-10) got his first, and Chief Bender had two runner-up finishes.


Things get a little dicier further down the leaderboard. Only the top half of Quarterfinal teams will advance to the Semifinals, so putting up at least a .500 winning percentage is vital. Six teams are currently clustered around .500.


The 1969 Orioles (Jim Palmer with a POTY at 20-8, 2.92 ERA) and 1962 Giants are best positioned to advance. The 1939 Yankees are the only other team above .500. The 1940 Tigers have pumped their percentage from .478 to .499 over the last three seasons. The 2019 Dodgers and 1931 Yankees have their work cut out for them if they’re to climb above .500 over the last four seasons.


Babe Ruth of the 1927 Yankees had his string of consecutive MVPs snapped at five (.287, 50 HR and .327, 54 HR), but the Yanks are 14th in the standings and unlikely to advance.

[rockford]

Standings after nine seasons of play (pennants and championships in parnetheses):

GB
--- 1909 Pirates .566 (5-4)
18 2017 Nationals .553 (6-1)
40 1910 A’s .537 (1-0)
56 1941 Yankees .525 (1-1)
58 1992 Braves .524 (2-1)
69 1939 Yankees .516 (1-1)
77 1969 Orioles .510
88 2019 Dodgers .502 (1-0)
96 1962 Giants .496
98 1940 Tigers .495
99 1931 Yankees .494 (1-1)
116 1939 Cardinals .482
131 2003 Yankees .471
144 1927 Yankees .462
153 1966 Orioles .455
203 1922 Browns .419

Howie Camnitz (22-12, 2.80 ERA) notched his third Pitcher of the Year award and Honus Wagner (.340, 23 HR) got his sixth MVP to help the 1909 Pirates nab another championship, but the Bucs have not quite been able to lock up the pool title heading into the final season.


The 2017 Nationals rattled off three straight pennants, giving them four in a row, as they vaulted from fourth to second place, just 18 games behind the Pirates. Max Scherzer (24-10) and Stephen Strasburg (23-7, 3.01 ERA) each won POTY awards, and Bryce Harper was an MVP runner-up.


The 1910 A’s also moved up, from fifth to third, with Chief Bender claiming two more POTYs – 23-13, 2.95 ERA and 21-16, 2.89 ERA.


The 1939 Yankees went on a tear to claim their first championship and improve their win percentage from .505 to .516 over the last three seasons. Joe DiMaggio had two MVP runner-up finishes.


The 1941 Yankees and the 1992 Braves have slid a bit in the standings, but look like good bets to advance to the Semifinals. Dimaggio got his second MVP (.333, 36 HR). The 1969 Orioles also appear to be in good shape.


The 2019 Dodgers rallied to boost their overall winning percentage from .495 to .502 in the last three seasons. But they’ll need one more good season to punch their ticket to the Semifinals.


Although there are still two more pools of 16 teams waiting to compete, current standings indicate a .498 winning percentage may be good enough to qualify for the Semifinals. Three teams are hovering just below that mark headed into the final season. The 1962 Giants (.496), 1940 Tigers (.495) and 1931 Yankees (.494) all need winning seasons to have a chance. Thirty-six-year-old Babe Ruth won two of the last three League 2 MVPs (.319, 42 HR and .324, 44 HR).


In League 1, a younger Ruth won his sixth and seventh MVPs (.300, 55 HR and .299, 50 HR), but the 1927 Yankees are still 14th in the standings, and his bat will be silenced after the next season.

[rockford]

Final standings after 10 seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses);

GB
--- 1909 Pirates .565 (5-4)
12 2017 Nationals .557 (7-1)
45 1910 A’s .536 (1-0)
62 1941 Yankees .525 (1-1)
72 1939 Yankees .518 (1-1)
75 1992 Braves .516 (2-1)
86 1969 Orioles .509
87 2019 Dodgers .508 (2-1)
105 1931 Yankees .497 (1-1)
105 1962 Giants .497
116 1940 Tigers .490
129 1939 Cardinals .481
148 1927 Yankees .469
149 2003 Yankees .468
173 1966 Orioles .453
226 1922 Browns .418

Stephen Strasburg (21-10, 3.22 ERA) finished third in Pitcher of the Year voting as the 2017 Nationals won their fifth straight pennant, but it wasn’t enough to finish atop Pool 4 of the Quarterfinals.


The 1909 Pirates finished in first place with a .565 winning percentage, third best so far in the Quarters. Howie Camnitz (24-9, 3.09 ERA) picked up his fourth POTY award for the Bucs.


The Nationals could only cut their deficit from 18 to 12 games in the final season. But a second-place finish and a berth in the Semifinals is nothing to complain about for a team that began the tournament seeded 288th.


The 1910 A’s showed how far a couple lights-out pitchers can carry a team. Chief Bender won three POTYs and Jack Coombs copped two as the A’s finished safely in third place even though their best batsman, Eddie Collins, finished 15th in his league’s overall MVP voting. The rest of the A’s staff was solid, as well, with Cy Morgan and Eddie Plank finishing fifth and sixth in the league’s overall POTY voting.


The 1941 Yankees finished fourth, and the ’39 Yanks snuck past the longshot 1992 Braves to nab fifth, despite Tom Glavine (17-14, 2.64 ERA) winning his third POTY. Still, the Braves become the highest-seeded team to qualify for the Semifinals so far. They were seeded 88th in the Quarters, and began the tournament as the 242nd seed.


Mike Cuellar was voted League 1’s top pitcher and Jim Palmer finished seventh to propel the 1969 Orioles to a seventh-place finish with a .509 win percentage. Frank Robinson was ninth and Boog Powell was 14th in their league’s MVP voting.


Cody Bellinger (.271, 36 HR) helped lift the 2019 Dodgers to their second pennant and first championship, boosting their win percentage from .502 to .508 in the final season.


Four of six pools have completed play. At this point, it appears a .498 win percentage may be good enough to clinch a spot in the Semifinals, a showcase for the 48 Greatest Teams of All Time.


Three teams that were walking the line for qualifying did not seal the deal in the final season of pool play. Babe Ruth (.324, 44 HR) could only lift the 1931 Yankees to 80 wins, leaving them at .497. Willie Mays (.309, 38 HR) had an MVP runner-up season, but the 1962 Giants only managed 77 wins and also finished at .497. The ’31 Yanks win the tie-breaker, since they have a seasonal championship in pool play, and the Giants don’t even have a pennant.


(However, three other teams -- 1911 A’s, 1975 Reds and 1986 Mets -- also finished pool pay at .497, and overall tiebreakers won’t be determined until necessary. Currently, no more than three of these five teams would advance, and that number may only be reduced as pool play concludes.)


The 1940 Tigers cratered in the final season, winning just 68 games as their win percentage slid from .495 to .490, ending their bid.


Babe Ruth (.308, 46 HR) of the 1927 Yankees won his eighth MVP – all unanimous – but the vaunted Yanks finished a dismal .469, 13th in the pool.




Most Valuable Players
Ranked by total MVP votes. Number of seasonal awards listed after team.

2052 Babe Ruth (1927 Yankees) 8
1645 Honus Wagner (1909 Pirates) 6
1313 Babe Ruth (1931 Yankees) 2
1282 Joe DiMaggio (1939 Yankees) 1
1028 Joe DiMaggio (1941 Yankees) 2
1021 Lou Gehrig (1927 Yankees)
839 Ken Williams (1922 Browns) 1
756 Lou Gehrig (1931 Yankees)
688 Charlie Keller (1941 Yankees)
596 Ryan Zimmerman (2017 Nationals)
585 Willie Mays (1962 Giants)
522 Hank Greenberg (1940 Tigers)
510 Joe Gordon (1939 Yankees)
502 Cody Bellinger (2019 Dodgers)
409 George Sisler (1922 Browns)




Most Valuable Pitchers
Ranked by total Pitcher of the Year votes. Number of seasonal awards listed after team.

697 Chief Bender (1910 A’s) 3
677 Jack Coombs (1910 A’s) 2
644 Howie Camnitz (1909 Pirates) 4
484 Mike Cueller (1969 Orioles) 1
385 Tom Glavine (1992 Braves) 3
376 Max Scherzer (2017 Nationals) 2
308 Stephen Strasburg (2017 Nationals) 1
227 Spud Chandler (1941 Yankees) 1
212 Lefty Gomez (1931 Yankees)
211 Mort Cooper (1939 Cardinals) 1

[rockford]

[rockford]

As we’re getting closer to narrowing it down to the 48 Greatest Teams of All Time, the bias favoring teams from the Dead Ball and World War II eras appears to be much more pronounced.


Consider: We’re two-thirds of the way through the Quarterfinals, and five of the top six teams by winning percentage are from those two relatively short, distinct eras.


1. .594 1910 Cubs
2. .574 1902 Pirates
3. .565 1909 Pirates
4. .563 1943 Cardinals
5. .557 2017 Nationals
6. .547 1942 Cardinals
7. .544 1932 Yankees
8. .540 1954 Yankees
9. .537 1937 Yankees
10. .536 1910 A’s


That dominance extends to eight of the top 14, and half of the top 18.


Chronologically, these two eras account for about 21% of baseball history (starting in 1901) – yet they’re providing most of the top contenders for GTOAT. And absolutely no one is arguing that ballplayers from the Dead Ball or WWII eras were superior to those from other times.

For comparison, these eras accounted for about 25 of the teams in the Quarters, close to the expected percentage.

So … we’re going to proceed and see how this all plays out, and adjust in future tourneys. But at this point, I suspect it may be necessary to ban these eras from GTOAT play, which would be a shame. A better option may be to have separate tournaments for these eras, and only allow a limited few into the overall GTOAT tourney, and perhaps only with statistical adjustment.


Anyway, just wanted to point out this development. I’m open to ideas. As the tournament progresses, we’ll start to drill down a bit more into the statistics, and see what that suggests.

[rockford]

Listed by Quarterfinal seed (original seeding in parentheses):


League 1

#5 2019 Astros (45)
#17 1938 Yankees (58)
#29 1903 Pirates (62)
#41 1911 Giants (69)
#53 1936 Yankees (37)
#65 2018 Dodgers (361)
#77 1907 Cubs (8)
#89 1922 Giants (256)

League 2

#11 1969 Twins (294)
#23 1909 Cubs (26)
#35 1970 Orioles (39)
#47 2017 Dodgers (78)
#59 1953 Dodgers (23)
#71 1934 Tigers (52)
#83 2013 Red Sox (279)
#95 1974 Dodgers (119)

[rockford]

LEAGUE 1

2019 Astros
107-55
1st in AL West; lost World Series in seven games to Nationals
HOF – N/A
Notable – Yuli Gurriel (.298, 31 HR), Jose Altuve (.298, 31 HR), Alex Bregman (.296, 41 HR), Michael Brantly (.311, 22 HR), Yordan Alvarez (.313, 27 HR), Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA), Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA)
Originally seeded 45th; .627 in First Chance, 5th

1938 Yankees
99-53-5
1st in AL; won World Series in four games over Cubs
HOF – Bill Dickey (.313, 27 HR), Joe DiMaggio (.324, 32 HR), Lou Gehrig (.295, 29 HR), Lefty Gomez (18-12, 3.35 ERA), Joe Gordon (.255, 25 HR), Red Ruffing (21-7, 3.31 ERA)
Notable – N/A
Originally seeded 58th; .590 in First Chance, 17th

1903 Pirates
91-49-1
1st in NL, lost World Series in eight games to Americans
HOF – Fred Clarke (.351, 5 HR), Honus Wagner (.355, 5 HR, 46 SB)
Notable – Tommy Leach (.298, 7 HR), Ginger Beaumont (.341, 7 HR), Deacon Phillippe (25-9, 2.43 ERA), Sam Leever (25-7, 2.06 ERA)
Originally seeded 62nd; .573 in First Chance, 29th

1911 Giants
99-54-1
1st in NL, lost World Series in six games to A’s
HOF – Rube Marquard (24-7, 2.50 ERA), Christy Mathewson (26-13, 1.99 ERA)
Notable – Larry Doyle (.310, 13 HR, 38 SB), Red Ames (11-10, 2.68 ERA)
Originally seeded 69th; .564 in First Chance, 41st

1936 Yankees
102-51-2
1st in AL; won World Series in six games over Giants
HOF – Bill Dickey (.362, 22 HR), Joe DiMaggio (.323, 29 HR), Lou Gehrig (.354, 49 HR), Lefty Gomez (13-7, 4.39 ERA), Tony Lazzeri (.287, 14 HR), Red Ruffing (20-12, 3.85 ERA)
Notable – George Selkirk (.308, 18 HR)
Originally seeded 37th; .557 in First Chance, 53rd

2018 Dodgers
92-71
1st in NL West; lost World Series in five games to Red Sox
HOF – N/A
Notable – Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA), Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA)
Originally seeded 222nd; .544 in First Chance, 82nd

1907 Cubs
107-45-3
1st in NL; won World Series in five games over Tigers
HOF – Three Finger Brown (20-6, 1.39 ERA), Frank Chance (.293, 1 HR, 35 SB), Johnny Evers (.250, 2 HR, 46 SB), Joe Tinker (.221, 1 HR)
Notable – Orval Overall (23-7, 1.68 ERA), Carl Lundgren (18-7, 1.17 ERA), Jack Pfiester (14-9, 1.15 ERA)
Originally seeded 8th; .535 in First Chance, 101st; .543 in Second Chance, 6th in tournament

1922 Giants
93-61-2
1st in NL; won World Series in five games over Yankees
HOF – Dave Bancroft (.321, 4 HR), Frankie Frisch (.327, 5 HR, 31 SB), Travis Jackson, George Kelly (.328, 17 HR), Casey Stengel (.368, 7 HR), Ross Youngs (.331, 7 HR)
Notable – Frank Snyder (.343, 5 HR), Irish Meusel (.331, 16 HR), Phil Douglas (11-4, 2.63 ERA)
Originally seeded 256th; .531 in First Chance, 107th; .518 in Second Chance; .542 in Last Chance, 5th


LEAGUE 2

1969 Twins
97-65
1st in AL West; lost ALCS in three games to Orioles
HOF – Rod Carew (.332, 8 HR), Jim Kaat (14-13, 3.49 ERA), Harmon Killebrew (.276, 49 HR), Tony Oliva (.309, 24 HR),
Notable – Rich Reese (.322, 16 HR), Jim Perry (20-6, 2.82 ERA)
Originally seeded 294th; .603 in First Chance, 11th

1909 Cubs
104-49-2
2nd in NL (6.5 games behind Pirates)
HOF – Three Finger Brown (27-9, 1.31 ERA), Frank Chance (.272, 0 HR), Johnny Evers (.263, 1 HR), Joe Tinker (.256, 4 HR)
Notable – Orval Overall (20-11, 1.42 ERA), Ed Reulbach (19-10, 1.78 ERA), Jack Pfiester (17-6, 2.43 ERA)
Originally seeded 26th; .580 in First Chance, 23rd

1970 Orioles
108-54
1st in AL East; won World Series in five games over Reds
HOF – Jim Palmer (20-10, 2.71 ERA), Brooks Robinson (.276, 18 HR), Frank Robinson (.306, 25 HR)
Notable – Boog Powell (.297, 35 HR), Merv Rettenmund (.322, 18 HR), Mike Cuellar (24-8, 3.48 ERA)
Originally seeded 39th; .569 in First Chance, 35th

2017 Dodgers
104-58
1st in NL West; lost World Series in seven games to Astros
HOF – N/A
Notable – Cody Bellinger (.267, 39 HR), Justin Turner (.322, 21 HR), Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA), Alex Wood (16-3, 2.72 ERA)
Originally seeded 78th; .562 in First Chance, 47th

1953 Dodgers
105-49
1st in NL; lost World Series in six games to Yankees
HOF – Roy Campanella (.312, 41 HR), Gil Hodges (.302, 31 HR), Pee Wee Reese (.271, 13 HR), Jackie Robinson (.329, 12 HR), Duke Snider (.336, 42 HR), Dick WIlliams
Notable – Carl Furillo (.344, 21 HR), Carl Erskine (20-6, 3.54 ERA)
Originally seeded 23rd; .548 in First Chance, 71st

1934 Tigers
101-53
1st in AL; lost World Series in seven games to Cardinals
HOF – Mickey Cochrane (.320, 2 HR), Charlie Gehringer (.356, 11 HR), Goose Goslin (.305, 13 HR), Hank Greenberg (.339, 26 HR)
Notable – Tommy Bridges (22-11, 3.67 ERA), Schoolboy Rowe (24-8, 3.45 ERA)
Originally seeded 52nd; .521 in First Chance, 126th

2013 Red Sox
97-65
1st in AL East; won World Series in six games over Cardinals
HOF – David Ortiz (.309, 30 HR)
Notable – Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75 ERA), John Lackey (10-13, 3.52 ERA)
Originally seeded 279th; .527 in First Chance, 116th; .529 in Second Chance, 11th in tournament

1974 Dodgers
102-60
1st in NL West; lost World Series in five games to A’s
HOF – Don Sutton (19-9, 3.23 ERA)
Notable – Steve Garvey (.312, 21 HR), Bill Buckner (.314, 7 HR, 31 SB), Jim Wynn (.271, 32 HR), Andy Messersmith (20-6, 2.59 ERA, Tommy John (13-3, 2.59 ERA)
Originally seeded 119th; .502 in First Chance; .537 in Last Chance, 11th in tournament

[rockford]

Five Astros teams from 2017 to 2022 qualified for the GTOAT tournament. The 2019 crew is the only one still standing, and for many good reasons.


For starters, the 2019 Astros have … starters. Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) and Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) are the dominant pitchers that can make just about any team dangerous. Throw in a lineup with stats that look like they belong to the ‘30s Yanks’ -- Yuli Gurriel (.298, 31 HR), Jose Altuve (.298, 31 HR), Alex Bregman (.296, 41 HR), Michael Brantly (.311, 22 HR), Yordan Alvarez (.313, 27 HR) – and you have a strong GTOAT contender.


The Astros were seeded 45th at the very start of the tournament but leapt all the way to 5th after putting up a .627 win percentage in the First Chance.


Speaking of the ’30 Yanks, the Astros are going to have to prevail against two different versions in League 1.


The 1938 Yankees have the bats to hang with the Astros -- Bill Dickey (.313, 27 HR), Joe DiMaggio (.324, 32 HR), Lou Gehrig (.295, 29 HR) and Joe Gordon (.255, 25 HR). But with ERAs over 3.30, Lefty Gomez and Red Ruffing give away a lot of ground to Verlander and Cole.


The same can be said for the 1936 Yankees. In some respects, the offense was even greater, especially for Dickey (.362, 22 HR) and Gehrig (.354, 49 HR). On the other hand, Gomez and Ruffing were even more generous.


But League 1 also features three Dead Ball-era teams with the kind of pitching that can upend the applecart. The best example is the 1907 Cubs. Even though the offense is practically non-existent, the pitching staff is unlikely to give up more than a run or two per game. The starters are HOFer Three-Finger Brown (20-6, 1.39 ERA) plus Orval Overall (23-7, 1.68 ERA), Carl Lundgren (18-7, 1.17 ERA) and Jack Pfiester (14-9, 1.15 ERA).


The 1903 Pirates have Deacon Phillippe (25-9, 2.43 ERA) and Sam Leever (25-7, 2.06 ERA), plus Honus Wagner (.355, 5 HR, 46 SB), who seems to be good for several MVP awards every time he shows up in the Quarterfinals. On this squad, he’s got several quality bats around him -- Fred Clarke (.351, 5 HR), Tommy Leach (.298, 7 HR) and Ginger Beaumont (.341, 7 HR).


The 1911 Giants have HOFers Christy Mathewson (26-13, 1.99 ERA) and Rube Marquard (24-7, 2.50 ERA), but few threats with the bat.
If the pitching staff of the 1907 Cubs is able to dominate League 1, the staff of the 1909 Cubs is likely to do the same in League 2. Most of the names are the same, and the numbers are nearly as good -- Three Finger Brown (27-9, 1.31 ERA), Orval Overall (20-11, 1.42 ERA), Ed Reulbach (19-10, 1.78 ERA) and Jack Pfiester (17-6, 2.43 ERA). But the same qualification regarding the offense stands.


The 1969 Twins were one of the Cinderella stories arising from the First Chance qualifying tournament. Seeded 288th at the start of the tourney, the Twins went .603 in the First Chance, placing them 11th. The Twins have borderline pitching with HOFer Jim Kaat (14-13, 3.49 ERA) and Jim Perry (20-6, 2.82 ERA). They’ll rely on HOFers Rod Carew (.332, 8 HR), Harmon Killebrew (.276, 49 HR) and Tony Oliva (.309, 24 HR), plus a streaky Rich Reese (.322, 16 HR).


IRL, the Twins were vanquished in the ’69 and ’70 ALCS by the Orioles. They’ll get a chance to exact revenge of sorts against the 1970 Orioles. The O’s feature Jim Palmer (20-10, 2.71 ERA) and Mike Cuellar (24-8, 3.48 ERA), with an offense powered by Frank Robinson (.306, 25 HR), Boog Powell (.297, 35 HR) and Merv Rettenmund (.322, 18 HR).


Three Dodgers teams provide the remainder of the top contenders. The 1953 Dodgers have an impressive lineup, with Roy Campanella (.312, 41 HR), Gil Hodges (.302, 31 HR), Jackie Robinson (.329, 12 HR), Duke Snider (.336, 42 HR) and Carl Furillo (.344, 21 HR). But the pitching is questionable, with Carl Erskine (20-6, 3.54 ERA) as the ace.


The 2017 and 2018 Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA and 9-5, 2.73 ERA) with impressive support from Alex Wood (16-3, 2.72 ERA) in ’17 and Walker Buehler (8-6, 2.62 ERA) in ’18. The ’17 squad appears to have more firepower, with Cody Bellinger (.267, 39 HR and Justin Turner (.322, 21 HR).

[rockford]

Standings after three seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses):


GB

--- 1970 Orioles .576 (2-1)
7 1911 Giants .561 (2-1)
7 2019 Astros .561 (1-1)
8 2017 Dodgers .558 (1-0)
15 1909 Cubs .522
15 1953 Dodgers .522
15 2018 Dodgers .522
38 1969 Twins .494
40 1936 Yankees .489
41 1907 Cubs .487
41 1903 Pirates .487
50 1934 Tigers .468
55 1922 Giants .457
61 1974 Dodgers .444
64 1938 Yankees .437
73 2013 Red Sox .432

Merv Rettenmund picked up two MVPs (.298, 27 HR and .309, 34 HR) and Jim Palmer (23-8, 2.72 ERA) got a Pitcher of the Year award to help the 1970 Orioles break out on top of a tightly packed Pool 5.


The ’70 O’s are trying to complete a trifecta for the organization. The 1969 and 1971 Orioles teams have already claimed their spots in the Semifinals.


Alex Bregman also earned two MVPs (.272, 29 HR and .278, 38 HR) and Justin Verlander (25-10) got a POTY as the 2019 Astros hung just seven games back after three seasons of play. The Astros are tied with the 1911 Giants, who benefitted from two POTY performances from Red Ames (19-11, 2.29 ERA and 20-6, 2.65 ERA) and an MVP turn from Larry Doyle (.326, 35 HR), who also had a runner-up finish.


The 2017 Dodgers are just one more game back. Corey Seager had an MVP runner-up finish, and Clayton Kershaw was a POTY runner-up.


Jackie Robinson (.341, 17 HR) earned an MVP while helping lift the 1953 Dodgers into a three-way tie for fifth place. Three-Finger Brown picked up two POTY awards (16-17, 2.97 ERA and 22-11, 2.25 ERA) for the 1909 Cubs, who are part of that scrum.


The 1969 Twins, one of the highest-seeded teams in the pool, stumbled out of the gate and are playing just .494 ball. The 1938 Yankees and the 1903 Pirates, two more teams that were expected to advance, got off to even worse starts.

[rockford]

Standings after six seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses):

GB
--- 1970 Orioles .556 (2-1)
7 2019 Astros .549 (1-1)
8 1911 Giants .548 (4-2)
21 1969 Twins .534 (2-0)
25 2017 Dodgers .529 (2-1)
26 1909 Cubs .528
30 1953 Dodgers .524
37 2018 Dodgers .516
52 1936 Yankees .500
63 1907 Cubs .488
66 1903 Pirates .485
84 1922 Giants .465 (1-1)
89 1934 Tigers .460
99 1938 Yankees .449
109 1974 Dodgers .438
116 2013 Red Sox .431


Merv Rettenmund (.317, 32 HR) got his third MVP to help the 1970 Orioles remain in front as a three-team race is developing atop Pool 5.


The 2019 Astros are still just seven games back, with the 1911 Giants just one game behind them. Justin Verlander (24-9) got his second Pitcher of the Year award for the ‘Stros, and Red Ames (17-9, 2.76 ERA) got his third for the Giants.


The 11th-seeded 1969 Twins came to life over the last three seasons, winning two pennants while pumping their win percentage from .494 to .534 and rising from eighth to fourth place. Rod Carew (.353, 12 HR) got an MVP, and Harmon Killebrew had two MVP runner-up seasons, in one missing the top award by just one vote.


Bill Dickey (.324, 31 HR) and Lou Gehrig (.319, 41 HR) each won MVPs to help push the 1936 Yankees back into contention for a Semifinal berth, increasing their win percentage from .489 to .500.


Three-Finger Brown continues to pitch the 1909 Cubs into the Semifinals, picking up three more POTY awards to give him five in a row. He posted marks of 19-11, 2.29 ERA; 20-9, 1.87 ERA and 22-11.


The 1953 Dodgers are in good position to qualify for the Semis, aided by Carl Furillo’s .328, 29 HR MVP season.


Honus Wagner (.372, 20 HR) got his first MVP, but his 1903 Pirates are mired in 11th place.

[rockford]

Standings after nine seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses):


GB
--- 2019 Astros .554 (3-1)
11 1911 Giants .546 (4-2)
11 1970 Orioles .546 (2-1)
12 1969 Twins .545 (4-2)
38 1953 Dodgers .527
39 2017 Dodgers .526 (3-1)
48 1909 Cubs .519
60 2018 Dodgers .511 (1-1)
65 1936 Yankees .507
88 1907 Cubs .491
90 1903 Pirates .489
130 1934 Tigers .460
137 1922 Giants .455 (1-1)
149 1938 Yankees .447
162 1974 Dodgers .444
169 2013 Red Sox .432

Justin Verlander earned two Pitcher of the Year awards (28-8, 2.67 ERA and 23-12, 3.06) to propel the 2019 Astros to two pennants in the last three seasons.


The Astros surged into first place atop Pool 5 with one season to go. The 1970 Orioles, who led through the first seven seasons, lapsed into a second-place tie with the 1911 Giants, 11 games back.


The 1969 Twins won the last two championships, and are lurking just one game behind the Orioles and Giants. Harmon Killebrew hammered out two MVP seasons (.271, 48 HR and .284, 35 HR). His teammate, Rich Reese, was Killebrew’s MVP runner-up one season. After a slow start, the Twins have played .571 ball over the last six seasons.



Roy Campanella (.300, 34 HR) picked up an MVP to help the 59th-seeded 1953 Dodgers into fifth place with a .527 win percentage.


Three-Finger Brown of the 1909 Cubs continued to monopolize the POTY award in League 2, claiming three more to give him seven in a row. His season marks were 19-14, 2.44 ERA; 16-11, 2.45; and 23-12, 1.80. The Cubs are seventh at .519.

The 2018 Dodgers, seeded 65th in the Quarterfinals, have put up a .511 win percentage in pool play, and will be the lowest-seeded team to advance from this pool.


Bill Dickey (.330, 30 HR) got his second MVP for the 1936 Yankees, who are at .507 and should advance to the Semis, barring a disastrous final season.


At this point, nine teams have the opportunity to finish pool play with win percentages comfortably above .500, thereby clinching a spot in the 48-team Semifinals.


On the other hand, two highly seeded teams are on the verge of elimination. The 1903 Pirates (seeded 29th) are at .489 and will need a Herculean finish to have a chance of surviving. Bill Dickey just earned two MVPs (.315, 37 HR and .336, 32 HR) for the 17th-seeded 1938 Yankees, but they’re 14th in the pool at .427.

[rockford]

Final standings after 10 seasons of play (pennants and championships in parentheses):

--- 2019 Astros .557 (3-1)
10 1911 Giants .551 (5-3)
21 1969 Twins .544 (4-2)
27 1970 Orioles .540 (2-1)
41 1953 Dodgers .531 (1-0)
50 2017 Dodgers .525 (3-1)
60 1909 Cubs .518
79 2018 Dodgers .506 (1-1)
81 1936 Yankees .505
96 1907 Cubs .495
100 1903 Pirates .492
136 1934 Tigers .469
167 1922 Giants .449 (1-1)
171 1938 Yankees .446
176 1974 Dodgers .443
192 2013 Red Sox .432

Alex Bregman (.294, 32 HR) earned his third MVP as the 2019 Astros won 90 games in the final season and finished atop Pool 5 with a .557 win percentage, tied for fifth-best in pool play so far.


Justin Verlander was also a force for the ‘Stros, finishing second in balloting for the top pitcher in the pool. Yordan Alvarez and Bregman were sixth and seventh in pool MVP voting.



The 1911 Giants won the final championship to claim second place in the pool, 11 games back. Larry Doyle finished third in League 1 MVP voting, placing fifth in the Pool 5 MVP vote. Red Ames was second in voting for top pitcher in the league, with Christy Mathewson fifth.


The surging 1969 Twins finished third, having risen from a sub-.500 eighth place after three seasons. Harmon Killebrew finished fourth in pool MVP voting. He was joined by three teammates among the top 15 MVP vote-getters in League 2. Killebrew was second, Rod Carew 11th, Rich Reese 13th (after winning the final MVP with a .326, 40 HR performance) and Tony Oliva 15th. The Twins also had two of the league’s top 10 pitchers in Dave Boswell (5th) and Jim Perry (8th).


The 1970 Orioles, who led through the first seven seasons, slid all the way to fourth, but finished with a robust .540 win percentage. Merv Rettenmund was second in pool MVP voting, and Jim Palmer was sixth in balloting for the pool’s top pitcher.


Nine teams from the pool finished comfortably above .500, and are assured spots in the 48-team Semifinals.


The 1909 Cubs, 1936 Yankees and 2017 Dodgers were expected to advance, and did. Lou Gehrig (Yanks) was voted pool MVP, and teammate Bill Dickey finished third. (The 1938 version of Dickey was 11th.) Three-Finger Brown (Cubs) was named the pool’s top pitcher after winning eight seasonal Pitcher of the Year awards, and Orval Overall was fourth in the voting.


Two teams advancing to the Semis could be described as “mild surprises” – the 1953 Dodgers and 2018 Dodgers. Roy Campanella was ninth in pool MVP voting for the ’53 squad.


The two most disappointing performances in the pool were by the 17th-seeded 1938 Yankees (.446) and 29th-seeded 1903 Pirates (.492).



Most Valuable Players
Ranked by total MVP votes. Number of seasonal awards listed after team.

1185 Lou Gehrig (1936 Yankees) 1
1157 Merv Rettenmund (1970 Orioles) 3
1076 Bill Dickey (1936 Yankees) 2
1076 Harmon Killebrew (1969 Twins) 2
931 Larry Doyle (1911 Giants) 1
824 Yordan Alvarez (2019 Astros)
798 Alex Bregman (2019 Astros) 3
751 Honus Wagner (1903 Pirates) 1
734 Roy Campanella (1953 Dodgers) 1
693 Jimmy Wynn (1974 Dodgers)
688 Bill Dickey (1938 Yankees)
546 Joe DiMaggio (1938 Yankees)
518 Justin Turner (2017 Dodgers)
512 Charlie Gehringer (1934 Tigers)
484 Hank Greenberg (1934 Tigers)



Most Valuable Pitchers
Ranked by total Pitcher of the Year votes. Number of seasonal awards listed after team.

979 Three-Finger Brown (1909 Cubs) 8
639 Justin Verlander (2019 Astros) 4
432 Red Ames (1911 Giants) 3
376 Orval Overall (1909 Cubs)
366 Jack Pfiester (1907 Cubs) 1
255 Jim Palmer (1970 Orioles) 1
229 Deacon Phillippe (1903 Pirates)
224 Christy Mathewson (1911 Giants)
187 Carl Lundgren (1907 Cubs) 1
155 Schoolboy Rowe (1934 Tigers) 1

[rockford]

An update on an issue I brought up in post #70: the apparent dominance of teams from the Dead Ball and World War II eras. (I’ve started to think of these as the “Forbidden Years” for short, since the question is if teams from these eras can be fairly matched with teams from other time periods.)


Here are our current top 10 teams, updated with Pool 5 results:
.594 1910 Cubs
.574 1902 Pirates
.565 1909 Pirates
.563 1943 Cardinals
.557 2017 Nationals
.557 2019 Astros
.551 1911 Giants
.547 1942 Cardinals
.544 1932 Yankees
.544 1969 Twins

Before Pool 5, teams from the Forbidden Years accounted for:
- The top 4 teams
- 5 of the top 6
- 8 of the top 14
- 9 of the top 18

After Pool 5, teams from the Forbidden Years account for:
- The top 4 teams
- 4 of the top 6
- 6 of the top 14
- 7 of the top 18

If pool play ended today, 12 or 13 teams from the Forbidden Years would be included in the top 48 that advance to the Semifinals. That’s a bit more than the 10 you would expect from an even distribution, but not wildly out of line. So the key issue may be one of peak dominance, rather than an overall edge.

Look at it this way: If we end up with, say, 4-5 teams from the Forbidden Years in our 16-team final, that wouldn’t be completely unpalatable. OTOH, if those teams finish first, second and third, it would be a bummer.

Something to keep an eye on.

The concentration of Forbidden Years teams will be diluted farther when Pool 6 is completed. There are only two teams from those periods in the pool, and only one is expected to advance.

[rockford]

Of the 80 teams that have completed Quarterfinal pool play, 38 have posted win percentages above .500. We can expect anywhere from seven to nine teams to finish above .500 in Pool 6. That would give us between 45 and 47 teams above .500.


The Semifinals will include 48 teams, so it appears likely we’ll need to dip into the sub-.500 pool for anywhere from one to three teams.


And that’s where it gets interesting.


As mentioned earlier, there are five teams tied at .497, and this is the group from which any sub-.500 teams would be lifted. Those five teams are the 1911 A’s, 1931 Yankees, 1962 Giants, 1975 Reds and 1986 Mets.

Tie-breakers won’t be calculated until necessary, but the fate of these teams is closely entwined with the competition in Pool 6.

[rockford]

Listed by Quarterfinal seed. (Original seed in parentheses):



LEAGUE 1
#6 2001 Mariners (6)
#18 1998 Yankees (9)
#30 1988 Mets (136)
#42 1999 Astros (300)
#54 1988 Twins (wildcard)
#66 1952 Yankees (173)
#78 1967 Cardinals (128)
#90 1958 Yankees (305)

LEAGUE 2
#12 1955 Dodgers (82)
#24 1993 Phillies (284)
#36 1998 Braves (56)
#48 1944 Cardinals (21)
#60 2011 Rangers (317)
#72 1977 Yankees (172)
#84 1913 Giants (42)
#96 1960 Yankees (116)