Not sure if I like this or not

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

You probably have a better chance for a 600 guy than I do, given your choice of 1986, and mine of 1984 for stat output bases. I've had a thought about the really good players that are pancaking in our leagues. What if it's got something to do with what happens to them when they come in via the Inaugural Draft? I've noticed that guys that debut out of that draft at the same age as their RL debut, or one year younger, are turning out just fine. It's the ones that come in after their RL debuts that seem to be having issues. Something to think about, anyway.

Obviously this doesn't affect all Inaugural Draftees who come in past their debut dates, but I'll bet there are some, and I'll bet it happens more often than it does for amateur draftees.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

You probably have a better chance for a 600 guy than I do, given your choice of 1986, and mine of 1984 for stat output bases. I've had a thought about the really good players that are pancaking in our leagues. What if it's got something to do with what happens to them when they come in via the Inaugural Draft? I've noticed that guys that debut out of that draft at the same age as their RL debut, or one year younger, are turning out just fine. It's the ones that come in after their RL debuts that seem to be having issues. Something to think about, anyway.

I have Bonds and Mays to use as tests to that theory. I will let you know.

[David Watts]

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by David Watts

I have Bonds and Mays to use as tests to that theory. I will let you know.

I'mma look at guys who were/are really good hitters IRL, who came in at 30 years of age or younger in the Inaugural, and see what I see. 30's kind of the mid-point between 27 and 32, which is where a lot of the experts peg that a player's peak takes place. Then I'll look at Amateur Draftees. This is absolutely not scientific in any way. Interesting that we're avoiding pitchers. Maybe I'll look at them in a separate post. I'll just use OPS+, because it's handy, and easier to use as a comparison tool across the 150ish years of baseball that are in our games. (Player Age in 1901), followed by the RL OPS+ during the seven seasons of the player's career, followed by in game OPS+ for the first seven seasons of my save.

Jose Abreu: (29), 128, 106 (note: RL season seven would be 2022, so he's hitting the Player Development system wall, and goodness knows what'll happen to him, now)
Mookie Betts: (28), 126, 110 (his age 28 season was 2021, so he's been at the mercy of the PD system for most of his career)
Edwin Encarnacion: (29), 139, 102
Brian Giles v2.0: (25), 150, 120
Juan Gonzalez: (25), 138, 109
Harmon Killebrew: (27), 157, 116
Manny Machado: (25), 132, 106 (Has spent last three seasons in PD hell)
Scott Rolen: (22), 129, 116
Gene Tenace: (30), 135, 130
Andre Thornton: (25), 131, 116
Billy Williams: (30), 138, 109
Carl Yastrzemski: (21), 135, 131
Ross Barnes: (24), 161, 145
Barry Bonds: (27), 185, 135
Ellis Burks: (28), 128, 134
Miguel Cabrera: (30), 143, 110
Cesar Cedeno: (19), 133, 136
Shin-Soo Choo: (22), 133, 126
Rafael Devers: (20), 120, 118 (only five real life seasons to look at)
Les Fleming: (27), 127, 111 (WWII completely destroyed this guy's career IRL, so I had to get him in, even though the RL PA total for the seven seasons was very low - not his fault)
Billy Hamilton v1.0: (22), 147, 152
Charlie Hickman: (30), 123, 88 (Only three years worth of recalc, and he didn't do enough with them to get anywhere near his RL numbers)
Len Koenecke: (28), 124, 126 (Only three seasons, and a bit over 1,000 RL PA, this dude's been riding the PD wave for quite a while, now)
Albert Pujols: (26), 168, 100 (W.T.A.F.F.???)
Pete Reiser: (21), 139, 141
Mike Schmidt: (29), 161, 137
Kip Selbach: (28), 121, 108
Mike Tiernan: (27), 126, 100 (1907 was first season with no RL stats)
Arky Vaughan: (27), 123, 102

Inaugural Draftees with less than RL career 120 OPS+, who've gone above 120 in game, so far:

Trevor Story: (24), 110, 142
Smoky Joe Wood: (21), 98, 129
Bibb Falk: (24), 119, 129
Eddie Bressoud: (24), 89, 126
Dick Stuart: (27), 115, 122
Mike Hampton: (25), 80, 128

That's a helluva lot more Inaugural Draft guys getting pushed down, some extremely so, than boosted up. Why? I don't know, but unscientifically speaking, this could be a thing, which means that maybe it's impossible to judge the offensive environment of your league, until the older Inaugural Draft guys shuffle off. What say you? This is also telling me that this effect ain't partial to one era of players, or another. For the most part, the Inaugurals are getting walloped, regardless of what era they played in. That's good news.

Amateur Draftees another time, maybe. 1903 draftee Frank Thomas has this league on its knees, begging for mercy, since he arrived in 1904, and there are others. I'll look at the first three amateur drafts when I study it.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Mel Ott lacks 9 home runs in my game to reach 500 home runs. Hank Aaron has crossed the 400 mark, so it will be very interesting to see which one ends up with the most. They are around the same age, but I think Aaron has the most recalc left, which means I like his chances to come out on top.

Garrit Cole and Toad Ramsey are in very close race to be the first pitcher to reach the 250 wins mark.

There goes ole Toad again! What a pitching god!

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Attachment 917810

Ok...Whoever it is...Stop choppin' those onions, please. One of my fave Blue Jays of all-time. His Blue Jays' career ran from a team that had Dave Stieb, and Lloyd Moseby on it, through a team that had Roy Halladay, and Carlos Delgado on it. Stop, and think about that for a second. Four different stints, but that's quite the timeline, for a career.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by actionjackson

I'mma look at guys who were/are really good hitters IRL, who came in at 30 years of age or younger in the Inaugural, and see what I see. 30's kind of the mid-point between 27 and 32, which is where a lot of the experts peg that a player's peak takes place. Then I'll look at Amateur Draftees. This is absolutely not scientific in any way. Interesting that we're avoiding pitchers. Maybe I'll look at them in a separate post. I'll just use OPS+, because it's handy, and easier to use as a comparison tool across the 150ish years of baseball that are in our games. (Player Age in 1901), followed by the RL OPS+ during the seven seasons of the player's career, followed by in game OPS+ for the first seven seasons of my save.

Jose Abreu: (29), 128, 106 (note: RL season seven would be 2022, so he's hitting the Player Development system wall, and goodness knows what'll happen to him, now)
Mookie Betts: (28), 126, 110 (his age 28 season was 2021, so he's been at the mercy of the PD system for most of his career)
Edwin Encarnacion: (29), 139, 102
Brian Giles v2.0: (25), 150, 120
Juan Gonzalez: (25), 138, 109
Harmon Killebrew: (27), 157, 116
Manny Machado: (25), 132, 106 (Has spent last three seasons in PD hell)
Scott Rolen: (22), 129, 116
Gene Tenace: (30), 135, 130
Andre Thornton: (25), 131, 116
Billy Williams: (30), 138, 109
Carl Yastrzemski: (21), 135, 131
Ross Barnes: (24), 161, 145
Barry Bonds: (27), 185, 135
Ellis Burks: (28), 128, 134
Miguel Cabrera: (30), 143, 110
Cesar Cedeno: (19), 133, 136
Shin-Soo Choo: (22), 133, 126
Rafael Devers: (20), 120, 118 (only five real life seasons to look at)
Les Fleming: (27), 127, 111 (WWII completely destroyed this guy's career IRL, so I had to get him in, even though the RL PA total for the seven seasons was very low - not his fault)
Billy Hamilton v1.0: (22), 147, 152
Charlie Hickman: (30), 123, 88 (Only three years worth of recalc, and he didn't do enough with them to get anywhere near his RL numbers)
Len Koenecke: (28), 124, 126 (Only three seasons, and a bit over 1,000 RL PA, this dude's been riding the PD wave for quite a while, now)
Albert Pujols: (26), 168, 100 (W.T.A.F.F.???)
Pete Reiser: (21), 139, 141
Mike Schmidt: (29), 161, 137
Kip Selbach: (28), 121, 108
Mike Tiernan: (27), 126, 100 (1907 was first season with no RL stats)
Arky Vaughan: (27), 123, 102

Inaugural Draftees with less than RL career 120 OPS+, who've gone above 120 in game, so far:

Trevor Story: (24), 110, 142
Smoky Joe Wood: (21), 98, 129
Bibb Falk: (24), 119, 129
Eddie Bressoud: (24), 89, 126
Dick Stuart: (27), 115, 122
Mike Hampton: (25), 80, 128

That's a helluva lot more Inaugural Draft guys getting pushed down, some extremely so, than boosted up. Why? I don't know, but unscientifically speaking, this could be a thing, which means that maybe it's impossible to judge the offensive environment of your league, until the older Inaugural Draft guys shuffle off. What say you? This is also telling me that this effect ain't partial to one era of players, or another. For the most part, the Inaugurals are getting walloped, regardless of what era they played in. That's good news.

Amateur Draftees another time, maybe. 1903 draftee Frank Thomas has this league on its knees, begging for mercy, since he arrived in 1904, and there are others. I'll look at the first three amateur drafts when I study it.

Could it have something to do with the talent levels of random debut inaugural drafts? If the random debut drafts are strong and more talent arrives in the 44 round draft than what was was present during the real 1984, doesn't it stand to reason that individual player numbers are going to be down a little in a random debut league? With league totals being the driving force behind OOTP, it only stands to reason that if those totals have to be spread across more players, overall player production may suffer. Is your league producing 1984 numbers as whole? Is the league slugging at a 1984 level?

[David Watts]

Toronto and Seattle are settling into a pretty nice post season rivalry in my league. I think they have faced each other 4 straight years now in the ALCS. Shades of 87 in 2002, as Toronto and Detroit needed game 163 to decide the East. I know in 87 the extra game wasn't needed, but that was still the best final weekend of my lifetime. Too bad those Juan Berenguer led Twins had to spoil the party.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Could it have something to do with the talent levels of random debut inaugural drafts? If the random debut drafts are strong and more talent arrives in the 44 round draft than what was was present during the real 1984, doesn't it stand to reason that individual player numbers are going to be down a little in a random debut league? With league totals being the driving force behind OOTP, it only stands to reason that if those totals have to be spread across more players, overall player production may suffer. Is your league producing 1984 numbers as whole? Is the league slugging at a 1984 level?

RL 1984: .260/.323/.385/.708, 4.26 R/G, 3.81 ERA

My game: .255/.318/.378/.696, 4.19 R/G (a hair under 4.20), 3.74 ERA

I don't mind the hitting averages being off. The run scoring environment is what counts for me, and that's dang near perfect. The spread across individual players is what's lacking, but I'm fine with the league wide numbers. More than fine actually. There's not as much separation between the really good players, and the not so good ones, but that should work itself out. Something's tightened up in this version, and it's good to see. I've even loosened my stance on league BABIP. I used to dial it down to the RL number (.286), but even the game's number (.289), doesn't really cause crazy ball. We'll see what happens once the Inaugural Draft guys have passed through.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Toronto and Seattle are settling into a pretty nice post season rivalry in my league. I think they have faced each other 4 straight years now in the ALCS. Shades of 87 in 2002, as Toronto and Detroit needed game 163 to decide the East. I know in 87 the extra game wasn't needed, but that was still the best final weekend of my lifetime. Too bad those Juan Berenguer led Twins had to spoil the party.

35 years on, this is still the one that got away for us Blue Jays' fans. The half bottle of lemon juice in a gaping wound, if you will. Sure we have the 2022 weird, deciding game against the Mariners, to chew on, but nothing hurt then, or since, more than that final seven games of 1987. The game against the Mariners was one game that demonstrated the wonder of baseball, that being the fact that you can always come back from a deficit, no matter how large the lead, and the agony of the fact that it can, and will happen to your team, even at the worst possible time.

4 one run losses in a row to you guys. We win one of those, we're in. 7 straight one run games over the final ten games of the season, against you. We got the first 3, you got the next four. 10 of the thirteen games between us that season, were decided by a run. Two others, by two. We won the only blowout of the season series 10-4, to outscore you guys 50-46. Yippee. What an achievement. I can still picture Garth Iorg running up the first base line, having just tapped one (back to the mound I think? Can't bare to look), and the inevitability of the death of a wonderful season, without a shot at going to the dance.

In Quebec, the motto on their license plates reads: "Je me souviens" (I remember). It refers (I think) to any number of battles (sometimes literal, sometimes political, but always seething) between the French, and the English, in this country. For Blue Jays' fans, 1987 is the year that we will never forget, for all the wrong reasons.

Most of us still maintain that that was the best Blue Jays' team in the history of the franchise. We had it all workin'. Until we didn't for one torturous week. The opinion varies on the legality of Madlock's slide, depending on which fanbase you talk to. Tony's elbow hit the bleepin' seam where the turf joined the dirt at 2B, for bleep's bleepin' sake. I'll admit that the decision to put a slab of wood beneath said seam was imbecilic, but still, bleep Madlock! Oh, and bleep that dastardly "Dour Doyle" Alexander, too! What on earth made him believe he was the second coming of Cy Young, down the stretch, after that trade?

I've got no beef with the rest of them. Great team. Admired them from afar. Stumped every year for Trammell to get into the HoF, and still do so for Whitaker. Chet Lemon was a ridiculously good CF. On the edge of the Hall, for me, because of his incredible ability to use every inch of that 440 ft distance to the CF wall, to run balls down, and leave hitters cussin' on their way back to the dugout. Nowadays, hitters tip their helmet to the fielder. He would've received eleventy billion tips now, but back then? Not a chance. Not even one. Just cussin'.

Runs saved are every bit as important as runs scored, possibly even moreso in the postseason. I value defense more than a typical Hall voter might. It's funny, the juxtaposition between, when you're dissecting a ball game with friends, talking about all the little things that it takes to win, and how all of that gets chucked, when it comes time to vote for awards, and the highest individual honour in the game. Bizarre, really.

Your team, and the Big Red Machine had a couple of the greatest up the middle defensive teams I've ever seen. Lance Parrish, and the three mentioned above saved a ton of runs. Bench, Morgan, Concepcion, and Geronimo for the Reds. I was a bit young for the Reds, but OOTP, and other games, and reading, have allowed me to see that. I wonder what the commonality was there? Hmmm.

This trip down memory lane has been brought to you by Excedrin. Nah, make that 151 proof rum...Or...I know...Wood grain alcohol.

[actionjackson]

Of course, in terms of suffering, neither of us has anything on Expos' fans. That is baseball fandom hell. What a team. What an organization. What a fanbase. What terrible, terrible, terrible ownership. Over and over again. Ugh.

[luckymann]

That 1987 AL race is on my list of candidates for Anatomy of a Season at some point.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by luckymann

That 1987 AL race is on my list of candidates for Anatomy of a Season at some point.

It was a fascinating season, for more reasons than that race. You have the Blue Jays and Seattle entering in 1977. The MLB R/G rate jumps from 3.99 in 1976 to 4.47 in 1977. Perfectly explicable with the thinner pitching pool. Then, it drops to 4.10, and back up to 4.46 in 1979. Still explicable due to a ripple effect caused by the expansion, and what it did to the pitching. The league was unstable. 9 year old me knew it, as he watched his team lose 109 games, and invent new ways of going about it every day.

Take out the strike year of 1981, and its 4.00 R/G because the work stoppage messed with everything related to the game. It was not a normal year, and it showed. Look at 1980, 1982, 1983 (when it started to be fun to be a Blue Jays' fan, for the first time in our existence), 1984, and 1985 (sooo much fun). 4.29, 4.30, 4.31, 4.26, and 4.33. Straight as a string stability. The pitching pool had recovered. Little jump to 4.41 in 1986, and then...What in the hell? 4.72, seemingly out of the blue in 1987, and then it plummets to 4.14 in 1988, and pretty much stabilizes, until 1993, when guys are "filling out their uniforms" better, and hitting absolute tanks, and two teams are added in Denver, and Miami, to water down the pitching. Two more follow five years later, in Tampa, and Phoenix to completely dilute the pitching pool.

We now know some of what was going on from 1993 forward, but how do you explain 1987's isolated offensive explosion? Were they experimenting with the baseballs, and then went...Whoa!...Whoa!..Whoa!...That's a bit too much...Let's turn it down a notch, and went too far the other way? I mean, it was more than just a blip, and then it was gone, seemingly without a trace. There hadn't been a run rate that high, since 1950, and there wouldn't be again, until 1994.

Same thing with the HR rate. Blue Jays, and Seattle arrive, it goes from 0.58 HR/G to 0.87 HR/G. Shallow pitching pool. To be expected. Going forward, it stayed in the 0.75 to 0.85 HR/G area. 1986: up a bit to 0.91, 1987: 1.06!, 1988-1992: 0.76, 0.73, 0.79, 0.80, and 0.72, before it starts surging in 1993. How do you explain that? My Jays set the record for HR in a single game (a record that has withstood the crazyball era, and the launch angle era so far), with 10, against the Orioles, in September of 1987. What. The. Hell? We've all seen eras, and trends throughout the history of baseball, but how many "island seasons" have we seen? I'd love to know what really happened, because the numbers are completely wonked, when you look at 1985, 1986, 1987, and 1988. Very steep, and jagged. Very interesting, and head scratching year.

[luckymann]

I might even just keep the current '85 one going, fast sim thru '86 and do '87 without skipping a beat. Sounds like a plan.

And DW, still not seeing any roster issues in that save as yet.

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I might even just keep the current '85 one going, fast sim thru '86 and do '87 without skipping a beat. Sounds like a plan.

And DW, still not seeing any roster issues in that save as yet.

Cool, I'm hoping maybe they fixed it. At some point I will give it a try again.

[David Watts]

87 was so much fun, but the let down against the Twins was tough to stomach. Then you get the constant debate as to whether that incredible run by Doyle Alexander was worth losing that cat named John Smoltz? Tanana was spectacular in that final weekend. To think he could have been a Tiger from the get go, but the Tigers worried about a injury during Frank's senior year in high school, decided to draft the greasy haired Tom Veryzer instead.

[actionjackson]

Originally Posted by luckymann

I might even just keep the current '85 one going, fast sim thru '86 and do '87 without skipping a beat. Sounds like a plan.

And DW, still not seeing any roster issues in that save as yet.

1985 was a beautiful season, for my Blue Jays, and I went on one of those baseball trips that you remember for the rest of your life, with the baseball fans in my best friends' family. Caught a line drive foul ball in Fenway Park, during BP. Kirby Puckett, I think. Left a bruise on my palm that took a week to clear up. Got home, and we were chucking the ball around, and of course, proceeded to lose it in some tall grass, in a park near my friend's house. Ugh.

Great trip though. Did old Yankee Stadium (RF upper deck against the Red Sox - crazy steep seating, serious vertigo), Cleveland Stadium (5,000 fans in an 80,000 seat stadium against my Jays), Three Rivers Stadium, Veterans Stadium, Shea Stadium, and Fenway Park, in six days. Tom Waddell threw the only complete game of his career to beat Dave Stieb, and the Blue Jays 5-2, in Cleveland. One of the early lessons for me, as to why you never bet on baseball, regardless of the pitching matchup, and the team with the crummy pitcher, on the team that were on their way to losing 102 games, going up against the ace of the team that went on to win 99 games. Baseball's weird.

Dodgers smoked the Phillies 15-6 at the Vet. Mike Marshall's grand slam landed two seats to my friend's dad's right, but he couldn't come up with it, in the ensuing scrum. Future Blue Jay Candy Maldonado went back-to-back with Marshall. The final hitter Koosman would face in his career, was Fernando Valenzuela, who singled off him, to literally send him packing. Almost caught a foul ball, after we moved behind the plate, but it was one of those big league pop ups that scared the crap out of me, as it came down, despite having a glove. They terminated Jerry Koosman's career with extreme prejudice that night. 0.2 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR. Terrible way for such a great pitcher to go out. Gets shellacked in the first inning, and gives up a hit to a pitcher to end his career. Oh, the humanity!

Saw Rick Reuschel in the midst of a career year with the Pirates, against the Reds' Mario Soto. Dave Parker was also a Red at the time, which must've been weird for Pirates' fans, and for The Cobra.

My friend's dad did all the driving. Seemed like all the turnpikes in Pennsylvania were under construction. No idea how he did it. The memories have indeed lasted a lifetime, and took me from being a baseball fan, to living and breathing the game for nearly the last 40 years. I don't have an eidetic memory though, just BB-Ref, to fill in the massive gaps.

[Garlon]

If you are playing random debut league your player results will be heavily influenced by the era a player ends playing in and the relative talent in the league when they play. A big influence will be the number of draft rounds that you are using. If you use a large number of rounds there will be more talent in the league generally and players will get squeezed. If you lower the rounds then you should see more dominant players. Then there is a whole host of other settings that will influence player results.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Garlon

If you are playing random debut league your player results will be heavily influenced by the era a player ends playing in and the relative talent in the league when they play. A big influence will be the number of draft rounds that you are using. If you use a large number of rounds there will be more talent in the league generally and players will get squeezed. If you lower the rounds then you should see more dominant players. Then there is a whole host of other settings that will influence player results.

I'm guessing maybe 45 for the first draft so there are enough players in the game to cover for injuries. After that, enough in the draft to match the attrition rate. Is there any information on attrition?

[David Watts]

Actionjackson, here are a couple Arenado Screenshots. [ATTACH][/ATTACH]