The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

As always we start with a retirement roundup.

Notable MLBers: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers retired #22), Brandon Crawford, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Carpenter, Enrique Hernandez, Jacob deGrom, Didi Gregorius, Josh Bell, Yu Darvish, Trey Mancini, Robbie Ray, Mike Yastrzemski, Whit Merrifield, Willson Contreras, Ryan Pressly, Corey Knebel.

Former Rays: Hunter Renfroe, Ryan Yarbrough, Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Kittredge.

Started the offseason with a trade:



This is a swap of backup OFs as after another down season I've soured on Jones and while my AGM wasn't thrilled about the deal Lara has more upside and is rated 65 power with 70 potential as well as 60 eye with 65 potential. He's 45/50 for contact but so was Jones. Jones is a little bet better in the field and on the bases but we're talking about 35 HR if Lara played every day. He won't of course (the OF is set with Alcantara/Chourio/Auer and L.Acuna is the primary backup) and still has two option years left so it's likely he starts at Durham. Lara did hit 11 HR in 216 AB between Pittsburgh and San Diego last year in his first MLB action.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: No Rays won

Reliever of the Year: Houston's Jonathan Sprinkle (37 saves, 2.07 ERA) got the nod over our outgoing free agent Camilo Doval, who finished a distance second with 5 first-place votes. In the NL veteran Edwin Diaz took 28 first-place votes after a 10-win, 44-save season with a 1.30 ERA.

Silver Slugger: No Tampa Bay winners here either, a rarity.

Rookie of the Year: 30-year-old Japanese import Tsuneharu Sugihara won in the AL after hitting .282-29-96. I thought our Waylin Santana would get the nod after winning 20 games but he ended up fourth with only 3 first-place votes. The NL nod went to Arizona's Ryan Clifford (.233-36-102), who just nosed out his teammate Druw Jones, 92-83 with each netting 11 first-place votes. Jones really had the better season at 3.6-2.7 WAR but so be it.

Cy Young: Waylin Santana, getting no respect. Apparently a 20-2, 2.36, 4.5 WAR season is not enough to win the Cy. Not only did he lose to Seattle's Logan Gilbert, who admittedly was a worthy winner himself at 14-8, 2.66 with 5.2 WAR, but he only received my first-place vote to Gilbert's 29. It's unusual to see WAR as the trump card in OOTP's Cy Young voting but there it is. The NL was a much closer race with Milwaukee's Logan Henderson (both Cy Youngs are named Logan) edging out Washington's Shohei Ohtani by the razor-thin margin of 164-162 and 16-14 in first-place votes. Henderson was 14-9, 2.60 with an MLB-best 6.4 WAR while Ohtani was 13-6, 2.56 with 5.9 WAR as a pitcher. Ohtani also hit 41 HR and earned 2.3 WAR as a hitter and deserves to win the NL MVP; we'll see if that happens next.

MVP: The Yankees' Aaron Judge won his 3rd MVP in the last 6 seasons, taking 22 first-place votes and outdistancing Seattle's Julio Rodriguez. Our Kevin Alcantara actually finished third with his big power numbers despite not becoming a regular until May. Judge hit .275-41-85 and earned 5.7 WAR. In the NL Shohei Ohtani was the rightful winner, beating out teammate Luis Garcia, who had a tremendous .326-31-142, 6.7-WAR season but didn't pitch.

November 24: We lost all our arbitration cases that we didn't settle and have to end up spending about $5M on payroll than anticipated. And then we really got hit with the hammer: I tried getting cute and made the $21.8M qualifying offer to Jeffrey Springs, figured I'd net a draft pick since Springs was asking for 5/120 when I got his extension quote. But surprise, surprise - Springs took the QO and now I was suddenly $10M over budget. But the Padres were nice enough to bail me out:



Cronin is only making $1.6M so we saved about $20M. And it's possible he might be useful to our bullpen as a lefty reliever but if not I'll gladly cut him. Or trade him. Phew!

November 25: Cleveland traded its longtime All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase to Texas for C Luis Campusano.

November 28: Hall of Fame voting was opened today. My ballot (in alphabetical order): Beltran, Braun, Cano (1st year), Felix Hernandez, Mauer, Posey, Pujols (1st year), Alex Rodriguez, Sabathia.

November 29: Atlanta, 74-88 last year, appears to be in a rebuild as after already shipping out starter Ian Anderson to Arizona they traded starter Kyle Wright to Cleveland for a pair of pitching prospects. Wright is coming off a 5.1 WAR season in which he had a 2.58 ERA.

November 30: And the Atlanta fire sale continues with SS Vaughan Grissom off to the Dodgers for prospects after he hit .251-21-77 and was good for 4.6 WAR.

We made another trade and look who's back:



Who says you can't go home again? Traded to Philly in December 2020, the overpowering lefty Alvarado is back in Rays colors. His always-nasty 70 stuff combined with 70 movement (and 45 control) will play in any bullpen, and he's saved 73 games over the last two years for Milwaukee and Minnesota. I still like Peguero as our closer but he should become our primary setup man. McKee was a 19th-round pick who's overachieved in the minors but still looks like a 5th starter at best and has poor control.

Despite losing Garrett Cleavinger to free agency we may now have too many bullpen lefties with Alvarado, Andrew Nardi, Jovani Moran returning from injury and the just-acquired Cronin. This may impact how the rotation shakes out as I might need Jack Perkins as a righty now and have lefty DL Hall move into the rotation.

December 2: Texas sent three prospects to the White Sox for slugging 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn.

December 4: The Mets sent a package of prospects to the Cardinals for OF Dylan Carlson. Also we had the first big free-agent signing of the winter as veteran 3B Nolan Arenado joined Texas on a 3/88 deal.

December 10: Houston fixture Yordan Alvarez was dealt to Seattle for pitching prospect Thomas White. Alvarez is "wrecked" and only played 106 games for the Astros but still hit 27 HR. Also the Rockies unloaded the final year of Kris Bryant's mega-contract on Detroit for a two-star potential minor league pitcher.

December 11: After three years away in Chicago and Texas, 40-year-old Paul Goldschmidt has returned to St. Louis on a 2/30 deal. Goldy still has it, hitting .278-31-82 with the Rangers this year.

December 13: The first of our free agents signs elsewhere as Garrett Cleavinger joined the Angels for 1 year at $2.6M. Also the lottery for next year's draft was held and Texas jumped from 6 to snag the top spot and Oakland dropped from 1 to 4.

December 14: And another member of our bullpen has a new home as Camilo Doval inked a 2/17.4 pact with the Mets. Also the Giants signed C Cal Raleigh for 2/27.

December 15: Former Ray Pete Fairbanks isn't as overpowering as he used to be but he's still pretty good, saving 19 games for the World Champion Dodgers this year, and we'll be seeing more of him as he joined the Yankees for 2/15. Speaking of veteran relievers Jhoan Duran signed with the cross-town Mets for 3/25 as they continue to beef up their pen.

December 16: The Mets can't stop signing relievers, adding lefty AJ Minter for 2/9.

December 22: Added P Santiago Suarez and C Mac Guscette to the 40-man roster. Had 3 spots open but not too many guys eligible for Rule 5 that I was worried about losing. Suarez was the Southern League Pitcher of the Year last season despite a 4 ERA and Guscette is a bat-first catcher who could fill in if needed.

December 23: The Rule 5 Draft:



An interesting mix of fading vets (Keller, Valdez) and one-time prized prospects who've dimmed (Wilson, Cross, Troy). We lost veteran Griffin Canning who had pitched for us at Durham last year but was never in our plans.

December 28: Alex Vesia, who's turned into one of the game's better closers and is coming off a 42-save, 1.71 ERA season with St. Louis, signed a 3/36 deal with the Phillies.

December 30: The Mets sign another reliever, and it's one of our free agents as Seranthony Dominguez goes there for 2/9.2.

[Art Deco]

January 12: The Hall of Fame balloting is in.

1B Albert Pujols 98.6 (1st year) Inducted HOF
CF Carlos Beltran 84.1 (6th year) Inducted HOF
2B Robinson Cano 73.6 (1st year)
SS Alex Rodriguez 70.0 (7th year)
SP CC Sabathia 64.3 (4th year)
C Yadier Molina 60.3 (1st year)
C Joe Mauer 49.5 (5th year)

Beltran finally gets over the hump, no doubt held back for a while by voters who weren't happy with his involvement in the Houston cheating scandal. Speaking of scandals A-Rod jumped from 48% to 70% this year and might make it next time while Robinson Cano nearly made it the first time on the ballot.

January 14: Longtime Atlanta fixture Ronald Acuna Jr. is off to Cincinnati on a 3/47 deal. That might seem kind of light considering how great he's been IRL but in this save his iffy 2022 season became his new normal, so he's been a 2.5-3.5 WAR guy since.

January 15: Texas sent veteran 2B Marcus Semien to Miami for a couple of prospects as his 2022 mega-deal winds down.

January 16: We have a signing!



Welcome to Tampa Bay, Chang-Hyeok Kim. He was part of the pro international free agent class and he potentially profiles as a #2/3 starter. Right now he'd be more of a 5th guy and he'll likely start the year at Durham.

January 17: Massive blow for the Blue Jays as Vlad Guerrero Jr. will miss the 2028 season with a broken bone in his elbow.

January 18: The Twins sent star CF Byron Buxton to the Dodgers for a couple of prospects. Star that is when healthy - he's wrecked and was limited to 47 games last year (earned a whopping 2.5 WAR in those games, but still).

January 23: The Dodgers are at it again, acquiring top-notch SP Paul Skenes from the A's for the #78 prospect in baseball, P Luz Marmolejo. Skenes has been a 4-WAR pitcher for Oakland the last couple of years.

January 26: Aaron Nola, after four years with the Angels, signed a 1/2.6 deal with the Yankees. He's become a homer-prone innings-eater, allowing 40 longballs in each of the last two seasons with slightly negative WAR, hence the small contract.

January 28: We signed our first amateur international free agent of the window, 16-year-old Venezuelan pitcher Symio Cotes who has interesting potential to say the least:



Yowza. If he ever lived up to that potential he'd win at least 5 Cy Youngs. We did give him a whopping $6M bonus and BNN now ranks him the #14 prospect in baseball.

February 1: Former White Sox CF Luis Robert inked a 4/79 pact with San Diego while old friend Drew Rasmussen joined division rival Toronto for 1/8.

February 11: SP Aaron Civale got a 3/47 deal with the Angels.

February 28: With Spring Training underway some vets found new homes on 1-year deals: Joey Gallo (SD, $2.4M), Steven Kwan (SD, $7M), Martin Perez (BOS, $6.2M), George Springer (CWS, $5.2M), Pablo Lopez (NYY, 2/7). Also a couple of former Rays signed minor-league deals: Yandy Diaz (OAK), Nathaniel Lowe (SD).

[Art Deco]

A couple of injuries in spring training as we went an impressive 20-6-2 in the games that didn't count: Ryan Pepiot strained his forearm and will be out until late May/early June while starting LF Kevin Alcantara tore his quadriceps and will miss the first week of the regular season.

A couple of our AL East rivals added bullpen pieces in March with Boston signing reigning NL Reliever of the Year Edwin Diaz to a 1/13 deal while those same Sox dealt reliever Devin Williams to the Yankees for a prospect.

Here's how the Opening Day roster shakes out:

C-Langeliers, Bailey
1B-Marsh
2B-O.Cabrera
SS-C.Williams
3B-E.De La Cruz
IF-Saggese, Winn
LF-L.Acuna (starting for Alcantara)
CF-Chourio
RF-Auer
OF-Lora
DH-Casas (Saggese vs LHP)

SP-McClanahan, W.Santana, Bradley, Brash, DL Hall
LR-Canterino
MR-Perkins, Nardi, Cronin, Costume, Moran, Juenger
SU-Alvarado
CL-Peguero

Matt Canterino was out of options and thus made the staff over Chang-hyoek Kim (who was very impressive in ST) and Joel Diaz. Also Rule 5 pick Griffin Canning was returned to us by the Yankees and assigned to Durham.

The preseason predictions:



For a change, the preseason picks like us.


Opening Day:



2028 got off to an excellent start in St. Louis as Shane McClanahan was perfect for 7 1/3 before giving up a double to Jose Gonzalez. Cardinal starter Brandon Pfaadt matched Mac almost pitch-for-pitch before the Rays broke through in the 7th for 5 runs, keyed by an Elly De La Cruz RBI triple and followed by 4 RBI singles.

[Art Deco]

Record: 13-15
3rd place AL East, 7 1/2 behind Baltimore; 2 games behind 3rd wild card

Ugh, what a miserable start to the season. With essentially the same roster that won 107 games last year this squad has been stuck in the mud and actually got worse as April went on. In fact I'd hate to think where we'd be if not for Shane McClanahan, who was an other-worldly 5-0, 0.42 (with 2.6 WAR!) and had maybe the best month I've ever seen a pitcher have. We got off to a similarly-poor start last season so that's what we're telling ourselves right now and like last year it's the bats that have been moribund.

We were also hit with three injuries to the pitching staff, all relievers, ranging from minor to major. Ryan Pepiot suffered a forearm strain and is out until mid-May, Andrew Nardi has elbow inflammation and won't be back until mid-season, and Jovani Moran tore his labrum and is done for the year.

Where things stand around MLB:



The Orioles' insane start is one reason why were in a big early hole in the division.



Closed out the month by losing 4 of 5. At least we're unbeatable on Mondays!



Can't say we've been unlucky either as we're only one game worse than our Pythagorean. The offense is clearly better than what they've shown, so we'll just have to have faith they'll come around. The starting pitching outside of McClanahan has been quite spotty as well with the bullpen really carrying the staff when Mac isn't on the mound.



Only Chourio, Elly and Marsh have had what could be called decent months at the plate. Alcantara and Casas have really killed us and the catchers haven't hit nearly as well as they can. Also last year's surprise sensation Saggese hasn't hit at all, although he hasn't had much of an opportunity with everyone healthy on the hitting side. Lora was out for a couple of weeks which is why you see our slugging prospect Joe Quelch in there and he did hit a couple of homers before returning to Durham. I will say if things aren't much better by the next time I post some changes will be made.



As mentioned the non-McClanahan starters have been off to slow starts although Santana's numbers are marred by a 1/3-inning, 7-run outing in his final start against Houston. The others have just been flat-out inconsistent. Canterino, who only made the squad due to being out of options, turned out to be a godsend in middle/long relief and with the injuries to lefties Nardi and Moran I may move Hall back to the pen and start either Canterino or Perkins.

This of course was a no-brainer:



On the farm:



Looks like Quelch has graduated off this list (maybe because he's an old prospect at 26 rather than having lost rookie status) but there are a lot of guys including him raking at Durham as the Bulls are off to a flying 18-8 start. Junior Caminero, Cooper Kinney and Hirata above are hitting for power and average and it's getting hard keeping them down, especially with the big club's hitters struggling. We did have a couple of players of the month on the farm:



He no longer qualifies as a rookie so he's not on the prospect list.



Last year's Southern League pitcher of the year is off to a flying start in the IL. Unfortunately his ratings are 45/40/60 so I'm afraid he'd be eaten alive in the bigs.

[Art Deco]

Record: 33-23 (20-8 for the month)
1st place, AL East by percentage points over 34-24 Baltimore

Deja vu all over again. Just like last season the Rays played ~.500 ball in April because the bats were moribund and came back with a vengeance in May with the offense waking up. We did suffer a couple of notable injuries during the month with Elly De La Cruz the most significant as he suffered plantar fascitis around the 17th and will be out until about the 8th of June. DL Hall was moved back into the bullpen early in the month and in his first relief appearance he strained his elbow and is out until mid-June. Junior Caminero was given another opportunity with De La Cruz out and responded to it by raking after being called up from Durham, and we claimed 1B/3B Zack Gelof on waivers from San Diego and he paid some immediate dividends (the struggling Tommy Saggese, who was so good last year, was the odd man out back to the Bulls).

And we made a pretty significant trade:



Cabrera wasn't playing badly but we have a glut of infielders knocking on the door at Durham and with the rotation scuffling I felt we needed another starter. And Cabrera is a free agent at year's end making parting with him easier. In return we get Ramirez who is rated 55/65/45 with potential for 60 stuff and 75 movement and who sports 4 plus pitches. He's an extreme groundballer who will fit will our excellent defense. The trade of Cabrera opens up 2B for Tetsuhisa Hirata, who clubbed 40 homers at Durham in 122 games since the start of last season and whom we signed as an professional IFA the winter previous.

Otherwise it was full steam ahead as Baltimore came back to Earth after its ridiculous April. Here's how things look around MLB:



Our May, which included a 10-game win streak:



The two wins in Baltimore were pretty amazing - both came on homers with two out in the 9th and the Rays trailing, with Carson Williams the hero in the first game with a 3-run blast and new waiver pickup Gelof hitting a grand slam to win the finale.



Somehow we've become road warriors with a 20-12 record while barely playing over .500 at home. Otherwise the hitting did improve even though our overall rankings are still kind of sorry in that department. The pitching and defense remain elite.



A good month overall with Jackson Chourio continuing to take it to another level this year with Mason Auer and Williams really coming through with big Mays. On the other hand, our new 2B Hirata got on base but did little else and Bobby Marsh had a terrible month. If Hirata continues to struggle we can always switch Caminero there when Elly comes back.



A good month for the pitching as usual with new guy Ramirez outstanding in his maiden outings with Tampa Bay. Brash bounced back from a rough April while Santana continues with his sophomore slump although he was excellent in his final start of the month. Our professional IFA signing Kim was called up when Hall went down and struggled in relief as well as one disastrous start. He probably needs more seasoning at Durham.



Three of these guys (Kim, Diaz, Hirata) came up to the big club and all struggled. I mentioned Kim and Hirata already but Diaz managed to pitch in one game and give up 2 homers while facing 3 batters and retiring nobody. I've been eying the guy at #20, Ramos, who looks like a future lefty bullpen piece.

[Art Deco]

Record: 50-33 (17-10 for the month)
Tied for first place in AL East, percentage points ahead of Baltimore

A decent month for the Rays who end the month right where they began it, virtually tied with Baltimore which also went 17-10 in June. Their .602 winning percentage is second in MLB behind only the Dodgers, who are 51-30. They really eked out the wins this month as 12 of the 17 victories came by one or two runs as the two slow-starting facets of the team, the offense and the starting pitching, continued to have some difficulty. It seemed the typical game would see the starter give up 3-4 runs by the 5th, the pen would shut down the opponent the rest of the way, and the offense would scare up just enough runs to win. Here's how it played out:



This month's only injury of note was to Junior Caminero, who had taken over the 2B job and was hitting well. He sprained an ankle on the 25th and will miss the first half of June and this opened the door for Tetsuhisa Hirata to take the job back for a few weeks. Otherwise we had a couple of pitchers to return from injury in DL Hall and Ryan Pepiot and if some starters don't get their act together soon (looking at you, Matt Brash) one or both of them could join the rotation.

Where things stand in MLB:



McClanahan has come back to Earth some but still ranks among the leaders in several pitching categories including an AL-best 2.9 pitcher WAR.



These numbers bear out what I mentioned in the open as the offensive struggles continued and the starting pitching has been highly mediocre with almost a 2-run difference between the rotation and the pen. As a result we're now playing over our Pythagorean record by 2 games as we've been grinding out the wins (Matthew Peguero is tied for the AL saves lead with 26).




A lot of disappointment here with three of the biggest bats we were counting on (Marsh, Alcantara, Casas) combining for -0.3 WAR. Ouch. And that's with Alcantara heating up over the second half of June. It was disappointing to see Caminero go down after becoming one of our few consistent hitters. Short of major trades (and selling low) we're just going to have to hope that the underachievers positively regress to the mean.



After an excellent debut month with us Ramirez was lousy in June and all of the non-McClanahan rotation has ERAs well above 4. Brash in particular is problematic because he doesn't have the stamina to go much more than 5 on a good day and if he's ineffective he's forcing us to really cover a lot of innings with the bullpen.



Kim and Diaz are possible starting help on the farm, but neither distinguished themselves in brief runs with the big club earlier this year so it's more likely a Hall or Pepiot replaces Brash in the rotation in the first instance. Durham is playing amazing baseball (53-25) with several big-league experienced bats like Thomas Saggese and Joe Quelch raking as well as this guy:



Vasquez is a bit old for a prospect but he can hit, rated 50 contact and 55 power. The only problem is that he plays SS/3B with Carson Williams and Elly De La Cruz two of the guys who actually are hitting for us.

[Art Deco]

A quick mid-month update, we're 54-37 (4-4 in July) and a game up on Baltimore in the East (2 in the loss column).

All-Star Rosters (with only two Rays making the squad):

Selected to play for the American League All-Stars are:

SP Taylor Dollard (OAK) - 5-7, 3.88 ERA, 99.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 WAR
SP Eric Groth (DET) - 12-5, 2.87 ERA, 122.1 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 3.0 WAR
SP Cristian Javier (LAA) - 8-4, 3.25 ERA, 122.0 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.7 WAR
SP Michael King (MIN) - 6-6, 2.38 ERA, 83.1 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 1.6 WAR
SP Shane McClanahan (TB)* - 11-3, 2.43 ERA, 118.2 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 2.8 WAR
SP Jackson Wolf (DET) - 10-3, 2.79 ERA, 113.0 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.1 WAR
SP Kyle Wright (CLE) - 9-9, 3.75 ERA, 103.1 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.6 WAR
RP Matthew Boyd (BAL) - 8-2, 3.48 ERA, 88.0 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.1 WAR
RP Lucas Gilbreath (NYY) - 7-3, 1.84 ERA, 68.1 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 1.5 WAR
RP Tanner Witt (CLE) - 4-3, 6 SV, 2.84 ERA, 50.2 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 0.4 WAR
CL Edwin Díaz (BOS)* - 3-3, 25 SV, 1.49 ERA, 36.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 12.9 K/9, 1.7 WAR
CL Matthew Peguero (TB) - 2-5, 27 SV, 1.52 ERA, 41.1 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 0.7 WAR
CL Jonathan Sprinkle (HOU) - 1-5, 27 SV, 1.55 ERA, 40.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 2.3 WAR
C Endy Rodriguez (CLE)* - .321/.378/.549, 224 AB, 10 HR, 156 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
C Dalton Rushing (TEX) - .291/.384/.426, 237 AB, 7 HR, 128 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
C Adley Rutschman (BAL) - .245/.339/.394, 269 AB, 8 HR, 104 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
1B Pete Anderson (DET)* - .287/.341/.493, 359 AB, 16 HR, 1 SB, 128 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
1B Rafael Devers (BOS) - .308/.347/.605, 347 AB, 25 HR, 4 SB, 157 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
1B Tsuneharu Sugihara (LAA)* - .330/.372/.657, 367 AB, 32 HR, 2 SB, 182 wRC+, 4.9 WAR
1B Andrew Vaughn (TEX) - .331/.396/.589, 341 AB, 23 HR, 1 SB, 172 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
1B Brock Wilken (NYY) - .289/.354/.566, 332 AB, 25 HR, 151 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
2B Andres Gimenez (LAA)* - .325/.400/.445, 348 AB, 8 HR, 5 SB, 141 wRC+, 4.2 WAR
2B Jackson Holliday (BAL) - .305/.372/.476, 370 AB, 12 HR, 10 SB, 135 wRC+, 3.9 WAR
2B Anthony Volpe (CWS) - .282/.343/.502, 213 AB, 10 HR, 1 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
3B Nolan Arenado (TEX)* - .283/.358/.498, 329 AB, 15 HR, 2 SB, 136 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
3B Orelvis Martinez (TOR) - .254/.315/.508, 319 AB, 21 HR, 124 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
3B Coby Mayo (BAL) - .305/.349/.577, 305 AB, 23 HR, 153 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
SS Gunnar Henderson (BAL)* - .275/.355/.478, 356 AB, 18 HR, 18 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
LF Juan Soto (KC)* - .251/.396/.457, 291 AB, 15 HR, 2 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
LF Samuel Zavala (BOS) - .334/.377/.502, 323 AB, 9 HR, 13 SB, 141 wRC+, 3.3 WAR
CF Jay Allen II (TOR) - .326/.412/.503, 310 AB, 9 HR, 23 SB, 152 wRC+, 3.8 WAR
CF Jasson Dominguez (NYY) - .286/.346/.510, 339 AB, 20 HR, 26 SB, 133 wRC+, 3.5 WAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (SEA)* - .305/.376/.557, 298 AB, 22 HR, 28 SB, 157 wRC+, 4.4 WAR
RF Aaron Judge (NYY)* - .303/.379/.576, 330 AB, 25 HR, 3 SB, 158 wRC+, 4.5 WAR

The National League All-Stars will have these players on their roster:

SP Ian Anderson (AZ) - 8-6, 3.84 ERA, 100.2 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 1.4 WAR
SP Moises Brito (MIL) - 7-5, 2.55 ERA, 120.0 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 4.1 WAR
SP Nestor Cortes (STL) - 8-3, 2.16 ERA, 121.0 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.0 WAR
SP Logan Henderson (MIL) - 10-5, 3.53 ERA, 117.1 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 1.2 WAR
SP Shohei Ohtani (WSH)* - 10-6, 5.01 ERA, 115.0 IP, 1.36 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 2.3 WAR
SP Andrew Painter (PHI) - 10-3, 2.47 ERA, 124.0 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 3.7 WAR
SP Alex Santos II (CIN) - 7-6, 3.71 ERA, 119.0 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 2.6 WAR
RP Aaron Ashby (MIL) - 1-2, 2.35 ERA, 30.2 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 0.5 WAR
RP Andrew Baker (PHI)* - 5-4, 5.09 ERA, 35.1 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, 0.5 WAR
RP Roansy Contreras (CHC) - 2-6, 2.78 ERA, 55.0 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 0.9 WAR
RP Joe Ross (SD) - 2-3, 3.31 ERA, 49.0 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 0.2 WAR
RP Steven Wilson (COL) - 2-0, 2.89 ERA, 37.1 IP, 1.26 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Alex Vesia (PHI) - 2-1, 26 SV, 1.85 ERA, 34.0 IP, 0.88 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 0.6 WAR
C Francisco Alvarez (NYM)* - .218/.331/.419, 248 AB, 12 HR, 112 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
C Steve Cooper (LAD) - .266/.340/.456, 259 AB, 10 HR, 1 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
C Harry Ford (WSH) - .276/.331/.419, 246 AB, 6 HR, 10 SB, 103 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
1B Brett Baty (NYM)* - .296/.359/.494, 324 AB, 16 HR, 140 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
1B Matt Mervis (MIA)* - .270/.333/.531, 337 AB, 23 HR, 134 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
1B Tre' Morgan (COL) - .299/.386/.494, 334 AB, 12 HR, 2 SB, 131 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
2B Wander Franco (LAD)* - .333/.378/.464, 345 AB, 5 HR, 13 SB, 134 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
2B Ketel Marte (AZ) - .350/.427/.504, 240 AB, 4 HR, 161 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
2B Luis Urias (CHC) - .312/.371/.541, 333 AB, 17 HR, 150 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
3B Cam Collier (CIN) - .351/.405/.669, 239 AB, 19 HR, 1 SB, 190 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
3B Oneil Cruz (PIT) - .265/.332/.440, 325 AB, 15 HR, 3 SB, 113 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
3B Nolan Jones (MIA)* - .284/.342/.534, 320 AB, 21 HR, 3 SB, 142 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
3B Ronny Mauricio (NYM) - .283/.318/.519, 339 AB, 21 HR, 2 SB, 132 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
SS Danyer Cueva (COL) - .333/.349/.493, 294 AB, 9 HR, 8 SB, 120 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
SS Vaughn Grissom (LAD)* - .244/.315/.453, 349 AB, 17 HR, 12 SB, 110 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
LF Michael Harris II (ATL) - .265/.313/.415, 234 AB, 8 HR, 15 SB, 98 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
LF James Wood (WSH)* - .331/.405/.569, 299 AB, 18 HR, 14 SB, 167 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
CF Evan Carter (PIT) - .307/.376/.466, 348 AB, 11 HR, 12 SB, 135 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
CF Malakhi Knight (WSH)* - .341/.407/.647, 337 AB, 30 HR, 13 SB, 184 wRC+, 4.9 WAR
RF Ronald Acuna Jr. (CIN) - .312/.389/.545, 343 AB, 20 HR, 19 SB, 155 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
RF Bryce Harper (PHI)* - .375/.430/.598, 259 AB, 14 HR, 4 SB, 183 wRC+, 3.6 WAR (Injured)
RF Jordan Walker (STL) - .262/.331/.537, 328 AB, 24 HR, 5 SB, 136 wRC+, 3.3 WAR


The HR Derby:



The game:



The AL romped with Rays reps McClanahan and Peguero each turning in a scoreless inning.

Next post: a draft recap.

[Art Deco]

Holliday:

About as familiar a name as you'll find in the draft, Ethan is the younger brother of Baltimore's Jackson and the son of former MLB star Matt, and given the pedigree it should come as no surprise he's an advanced prospect:



He's pretty close to a finished product out of Oklahoma State and could play in the bigs right now. Instead he'll go to AA but could contend for a spot next season although we have Carson Williams at SS and Elly De La Cruz at 3B but if he can play an average SS/3B there's no reason he can't play 2B. A little surprised he made it to us at 32.

Ridell:



Ridell hails from the baseball hotbed of Quebec and turns 18 today, profiling as a well-rounded OF prospect.

Estrada:



This NY high-schooler isn't quite as well-rounded as Ridell but offers a potentially elite bat.

Slotter:



A great name for an MLB draftee, Slotter (who signed for slot, natch) is a 17-year-old Tennessean who could possibly become a useful starting pitcher.

Hoak:



Nicknamed "Hurricane", Hoak is an 18-year-old from California who offers a passel of skills and could be a 5th-round steal. Here's hoping the scouts don't downgrade him to a tropical depression after his pro debut.

[Art Deco]

Record: 64-43 (14-10 for the month)
1st place AL East, 4 games ahead of Baltimore

As the monthly record implies, it was and up-and-down month although we were still able to open up a decent lead on the Orioles in the division. July saw an 8-game win streak for the Rays in the middle of the month which was immediately followed a sweep in LA by the Dodgers including two late losses, triggering bad memories of last season's World Series. On the injury front, Carson Williams suffered his annual injury, this time straining an oblique which will keep him out until mid-August, reliever Hayden Juenger developed recurring back spasms and he'll be gone until mid-August as well, and Waylin Santana strained a hamstring which will sideline him until late August.

Oh, and we made a trade to upgrade the starting rotation for someone you might recognize:



He's baaaack! Traded last winter after he surprisingly accepted our qualifying offer, San Diego was looking to deal Springs so we took them up on it. He was 7-5, 3.51 with 1.6 WAR for the Padres this year and he was steady for us last season so why not bring him back? Rabe has decent stuff for a prospect but no idea where it's going and his lack of control will likely keep him from being a productive major leaguer but maybe San Diego will get lucky with him.

With the deal we moved Matt Brash to the bullpen and demoted Anthony Molina (who actually had to clear waivers - and did - since we needed to make 40-man room). Also DL Hall was put back in the rotation with Santana going on the IL and Andrew Nardi coming back for the first time since Opening Day from his injury.





The offense did perk up some in July as we're now up to 6th and 7th in a lot of categories instead of 8th and 9th, the pitching remains strong and the defense remains schizophrenic. We also really have a big problem against lefties, playing only .344 ball. It seems we have a lot of strong RH hitters with Bobby Marsh the only lefty playing against southpaws but the numbers just ain't good.




A really good month for the offense with just about every regular very productive. Caminero came off the IL and kept hitting, including a 2-HR, 7-RBI game, and Hirata hit like mad after coming back up to play SS when Williams was hurt. We also need to find a way to get Gelof in the lineup more.



McClanahan's Cy Young-caliber season continues apace but the other starters continue to struggle. Springs had to leave his first start back with us in the first inning but made it through the second, and Brash pitched really well after going to pen in long relief. But Taj was absolutely brutal and Santana struggled with the injury until we had to IL him. Peguero was having a decent month as closer until the final day when he gave up 3(!) solo homers in the 9th to lose a game to the Yankees.



Thanks to a decent draft all of our top 20 prospects fit within MLB's top 500. Advanced 1st-round pick Ethan Holliday was aggressively started at AA Montgomery and he's hit (325/413/525) although his defense at the new position of 2B is a work in progress. With Caminero really hitting (and Hirata too of late) 2B seems covered at the big league level so no instant promotion for Holliday but we already had an IF surplus coming into the year and we have one even moreso now, so look for a deal or two in the winter. Meanwhile Kim is a possibility if the non-McClanahan/Springs starters continue to fail to get their collective act together.

So we'll look to consolidate our lead in August and hope to get some consistency from the 3/4/5 spots in the rotation as we get into the business end of the season.

[Art Deco]

Record: 78-56 (14-13 for the month)
1st place, AL East, 5 games ahead of Baltimore

It was a trying month for the Rays as they lost the one player they really couldn't afford to lose as Shane McClanahan, having a Cy Young-caliber season, came down with shoulder inflammation and is done for the season. With the rest of the rotation inconsistent to put it politely his loss is huge, and when he went down in his first start of the month on the 2nd the team fell into a funk, going 3-8 to begin August and was 7-12 through the 22nd before winning 7 of the month's final 8 games. The Orioles got within 1/2 game at one point before they slumped late as the Rays rallied and they ended up the month one game better off in the standings than when it started.

There was some good injury news as Carson Williams and Hayden Juenger came back. Chang-hyeok Kim was initially called up to replace McClanahan but was awful so late in the month Ryan Pepiot was installed in the rotation and won both his starts. The other notable move during the month was the surprise demotion of Kevin Alcantara and recall of Joe Quelch to play LF. Alcantara showed no signs of breaking out of his season-long slump which had him hitting 210/282/370 with 16 HR while Quelch was 308/391/613 with 38 dingers at Durham. Alcantara didn't pout at Durham, hitting 353/389/706 with 3 homers in 9 games and earned a September 1 recall.

How things look around MLB going into September:



Despite a rough 3 weeks the Rays are still in position for a bye and on track to win the division. The game-by-game litany of the rollercoaster month:





The offense remains spotty, having a hard time getting hits but drawing walks and hitting homers so they're middle of the pack. Despite a rotation with an ERA of 4.49 - and that includes McClanhan's 2.28 which is now gone - the bullpen has been so good that they're still #1 in runs allowed.



Nobody had an incredible month at the plate although Williams really did hit for power after coming back while nobody had a really terrible month either except for the catchers and Alcantara as you can see why he was demoted.



Jeffrey Springs pitched like he was happy to be back with the Rays and now becomes our ace with McClanahan out while Jose Ramirez had his best run in the rotation since right after he was first acquired. You can see how bad Kim was in his audition for the rotation. Fernando Costume should have been wearing a costume around Tampa Bay with how rough a month he had in relief.



Quelch graduated off this list although he still has rookie eligibility. Our #1 pick Ethan Holliday hit the ground raking at Montgomery - he's hitting 365/460/657 with 9 HR and 29 RBI in 37 games and clearly is capable of hitting in the bigs right now with his present 70-rated contact tool (potential 80). We moved him to 2B with Elly at 3B and Carson at SS and his defense is a work in progress with a -1.8 ZR in 31 games at the position. He'll never likely be a good defender but with that bat he just needs to not be a butcher. 2nd-round pick Cory Ridell also impressed in complex ball, hitting 272/417/444 with 4 HR in 103 AB.

So it's down to stretch time. As mentioned Alcantara will be back for September and we should also have Waylin Santana back in the rotation as well. Hopefully he'll regain last year's rookie form as we really need it now.

[Art Deco]

Final Record: 93-69 (15-13 for the month)
1st place, AL East, 3 games ahead of Baltimore

September was a bit of a touch and go month for the Rays with some injuries and inconsistent play, but in the end they won the AL East and secured a bye through the wild card round. Things did get a bit dicey in the penultimate weekend when the Orioles took the first 2 games and pulled within 2 games of the lead, but a win in the series finale beat back Baltimore and they clinched just before the final 3-game return series with the Orioles:



We were hit hard in the injury department. Junior Caminero, who broke out to the tune of 287/342/479 and took over 2B, tore a labrum in his shoulder and is done until next May. The bullpen took it on the chin as well as Fernando Costume ruptured his UCL and is out until July and Matt Canterino sprained an ankle and is out until mid-October. And we played the last couple of weeks without star 3B Elly De La Cruz as he suffered elbow inflammation but he'll be back for the playoffs.

How the season shook out around MLB:



Houston did take the final AL wild card, making up two games on Cleveland over the final two days and edging them on the tiebreaker. The Astros scored 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to win on the final day in a high-drama event. Aaron Judge closed with a flourish, hitting .308-13-32 in September and possibly pipping Tsuneharu Sugihara, who had a massive year and looked like a shoo-in, for MVP.



Can we say the bullpen carried this team to 93 wins? The offense was OK but not great and the starting pitching and defense were mediocre, so that leaves the pen, whose 2.86 ERA was the best in baseball.



You can see why Caminero is missed - 3.2 WAR in only 91 games implies a 5+ WAR player. De La Cruz would have hit that mark had he stayed healthy but the real unsung heroes in the field were Shea Langeliers and Carson Williams, who picked up a lot of the offensive slack over the final couple of months. Langeliers is a free agent this winter and we were fully prepared to let him go; in fact he started the year in a job-share with Patrick Bailey but took control of the position. The big disappointment was the power trio of Bobby Marsh, Triston Casas and Kevin Alcantara, who combined for only 3.1 WAR. Meanwhile Zach Gelof and Baylon Lora were very productive off the bench.



Still ruing the loss of McClanahan as the playoff rotation doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Springs pitched pretty well and is now our "ace" and he'll be followed by Bradley and Ramirez, who did pitch somewhat better than their surface numbers as both were BABIP victims to an extent. Not sure who the 4th starter will be as Santana continued his inconsistency after coming back from injury while Hall was also inconsistent but had better results. I'd also prefer if the back end of the pen was better as Alvarado and Peguero both had problems giving up homers.



We're short on high-end prospects although Kim and Holliday look like they could contribute in 2029.

So it's off to the playoffs again as we try to finally bring home a title, coming so close last year before losing in the World Series to the Dodgers. I'm less confident about this year's squad due to the starting pitching but we'll see.

[Art Deco]

AL:




Baltimore will play top-seeded Detroit in the ALDS.



And the Angels will be the Rays' opponent in the other ALDS.

NL:



Colorado will take on Washington in one NLDS.



And the Marlins will take on the Dodgers in the other NLDS.

[Art Deco]

Already in trouble...



I could blame the bullpen as Hayden Juenger and Jose Alvarado combined to blow the lead in the 8th and I wouldn't be wrong, but the real culprit in today's Game 1 ALDS defeat was the offense, which could only scrape out four hits and one run. Which is a shame because after Jeffrey Springs left in the 3rd inning with wrist soreness (which will keep him pitching a Game 5 if we should be so lucky), Waylin Santana shrugged off being left out of the postseason rotation and came through with 5 brilliant 1-hit, 7-whiff innings to make Kevin Alcantara's 2nd-inning solo homer stand up. And it should have been 2-0 in the 5th when Shea Langeliers led off with a triple but his teammates with the weak noodles couldn't get him home. So now Jose Ramirez will have to not only hope to pitch well but to get some actual run support if the Rays want to head to Anaheim tied up.

In the other ALDS:

[Art Deco]

Back to even...



At times it looked like a repeat of Game 1 with a solo homer holding up in a 1-0 lead and with Jose Alvarado blowing another lead, but this time the offense came up big in overcoming the blown save with a pair of 8th-inning runs and despite Matthew Peguero's best efforts to blow a second lead in the same game the Rays held on to a 5-4 win and evened up their ALDS with the Angels. Jose Ramirez gave the Rays another outstanding pitching effort and when Mason Auer came up with a 2-run double in the 7th to make it 3-1 it looked like the win would be in hand. But it wasn't so easy as Alvarado gave up the big hit again, a 2-run homer to let LA even it up. Thankfully Carson Williams kept the 8th alive with a walk, stole second, and scored on Shea Langeliers' single while Luisangel Acuna knocked in Langeliers. That last run proved huge when Peguero, who despite racking up 39 saves wasn't quite the lockdown closer we'd like him to be, gave up a leadoff homer in the 9th but hung on. There was one injury though - Joe Quelch, whose pinch-double in the 7th led to Auer's 2-run double, tore his hamstring on the play and is done for the season. So we head to Anaheim not knowing what we'll get from Taj Bradley in a couple of days but here's hoping it's something good.

As for the rest of today's DS action:

[Art Deco]

The Rockies continued their rampage through the playoffs:

[Art Deco]

Holy comebacks, Batman...



I had pre-written the recap of Game 3 in my head, ready to talk about how the bullpen was a sh**show again as they gave up 6 runs in the 6th with two out to put the Rays in what looked like an insurmountable hole, but the Angel pen one-upped (or one-downed) them by allowing 7 runs to Tampa Bay in the 8th to give them an 8-7 win and a 2-1 series lead. Jackson Chourio's grand slam capped that massive inning, which was kept alive when pinch-hitter Zach Gelof reached on an error by Angel 2B Andres Gimenez after Carson Williams' 2-run single had pulled them within 6-4. Matt Brash tried to close it but he gave up a 2-out RBI double in the 9th so Matthew Peguero had to get the final out, which he did. So now we have a chance to clinch tomorrow with DL Hall getting the call.

In the other ALDS:

[Art Deco]

One strike away and then...



All season long the starting pitching was mediocre and the bats were inconsistent but the one thing the Rays could count on was their bullpen. Not in this postseason, though. For the fourth time in four games the pen let the Rays down, and as a result they're going to play a Game 5 instead of already gearing up for the ALCS after Matthew Peguero gave up a 2-out, 2-strike homer to LA's Nolan Gorman to give the Angels a 4-3 win, evening up their ALDS. I seriously thought about walking Gorman with first base open given that he's a lefty and he's been killing the Rays this series. But since it would put the winning run on base I let Peguero pitch to him and disaster ensued. It shouldn't have been that way after Kevin Alcantara's RBI single in the top of the 9th gave the Rays a 3-2 lead but that's what we have. It looks like Jeffrey Springs may be able to go in Game 5 with Waylin Santana ready to step in if needed.

Elsewhere nothing has been decided as nobody has booked a spot in the CS:

[Art Deco]

Had to go with the box for this epic game:



That's right - A 23-inning postseason game, shattering the previous record of 18 set in 2018 and 2022. Miami pulled it out to force a Game 5 despite giving up the tying run in the 9th and falling behind 6-4 in the 22nd. And it was a pair of former Rays who figured in the end when Josh Lowe hit a walk-off homer in the 23rd off Tyler Glasnow to win it. The Marlins used 11 pitchers in the marathon, also undoubtedly a postseason record.

Meanwhile we have our first CS entrant after the 90-win wild card Rockies upset the 101-win Nationals in 4 games:

[Art Deco]

Phew...



I'm not sure how, but the Rays managed to hold on and defeat the Angels 6-5 in a deciding Game 5 to advance to the ALCS. The much-and-deservedly-maligned Matthew Peguero actually got the job done this time, striking out a pair of Angels in a perfect 9th to preserve the win after blowing Game 4. Peguero ended up saving all 3 Rays win despite pitching poorly in the series except for tonight. Things looked bleak early when Jeffrey Springs was hit for 3 runs in the 3rd and Cristian Javier was dominating the Rays, allowing only one hit and fanning 7 into the 5th. But as in Game 3 Carson Williams got the comeback rolling, this time with a 2-run homer to make it 3-2, and the hits kept coming with Bobby Marsh's RBI single putting Tampa Bay on top. And the hope in the 7th was that Triston Casas' 2-run double would bullpen-proof the lead but Jack Perkins immediately gave up 2 runs in the 8th to make it a one-run affair again. Thankfully Matt Brash bailed him out of that mess and then Peguero closed it out. So who will we be playing?



None other than the team we fought down to the wire to win the division over, the Baltimore Orioles. They too overcame a shaky bullpen to win as they blew a 3-run lead in the 9th only to end up taking it in the 13th.

[Art Deco]

And just as the ALCS will be a divisional affair so will the NLCS as the Dodgers advanced to take on NL West rival Colorado.