Dante Culpepper Sucks / Evaluating QB's

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by twins15

But wait, shouldn't Moss be making Tuiasosopo 20 points better?

I know, it makes you wonder how bad he'd be without Moss!

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by avwjase

QB Rating is about worthless if you ask me. Last year there were games where Big Ben had 1 TD Pass and 150 yards passing, yet had a perfect rating. Yet Manning would throw 5 TD's and somehow he didn't have a perfect rating for that game. Any fool would take the 5 TD day over a 1 TD day, yet if you go strictly by rating it would leave you to believe that Big Ben had the better game.

With that said, Collins has hardly played good this year. He's had two good games, two ok games and the rest of the time he's been pretty damn bad. This with what many believed was one of the best offenses in the league. His two 3 TD days are the crutch keeping his QB rating you keep harping about so high.

Jase

I also feel that QB rating pretty much sucks considering it weights TD's so much... yet doesn't account for a QB getting sacked.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Luis_Rivera

I also feel that QB rating pretty much sucks considering it weights TD's so much... yet doesn't account for a QB getting sacked.

What do the fancy stats say about Collins' performance this year? His Yds/att is the 2nd highest of his career.

[Jason Moyer]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

What do the fancy stats say about Collins' performance this year? His Yds/att is the 2nd highest of his career.

13th in DPAR, 18th in DVOA. Last year he was 29th in both.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

13th in DPAR, 18th in DVOA. Last year he was 29th in both.

..Which is why I made the point that he's been above average this year, previously. If he plays this week, they're winning right now.

[IatricSB]

This thread is making me laugh.... Thanks! Can't wait to see what the next rabbit Sebs pulls out of his hat. ROFL.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by IatricSB

This thread is making me laugh.... Thanks! Can't wait to see what the next rabbit Sebs pulls out of his hat. ROFL.

Not sure whether to take that as a compliment or not...

If anything, the Collins stuff might show that I picked the wrong stat (QB rating) since I don't know the best way to evaluate QB's, and there seem to be superior ways according to some of the more enlightened football stat gurus around here.

Those other ways show that Collins is having a season light years ahead of how he did last year--something that his QB rating and yards per attempt don't contradict.

I guess I need to ask the football statheadz what is the best stat to use for evaluating QB's, then maybe switch to using that and looking at McNabb with/without T.O., Garcia with/without T.O., Culpepper with/without Moss, and Kitna with/without Johnson in terms of the best statistic available.

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Uh yeah. His two 3-TD games plus his three 2-TD games (which is pretty good--2 each game puts a QB on pace for 32) yeah...um, totally isolated. Yeah.

Actually, if you'd care to actually... you know, read what I wrote {I know, it's hard}, I referenced two of his 2 TD games. I said he'd had two good games and two solid games. One of his two TD performances was accompanied by 3 INT's. Putting that through your little logi-computer, that'd be 48 INT's for an entire year! Whoa! Not a good game!

So, yet again, I'll give you the point that Collins has had 4 games where he's been a solid QB. But that leaves 9 where he's been well below the production level a team like the Raiders need from their QB. They're pretty much a pass happy flag-football team with pads on. If he were playing for the Bears then sure, most of his games would be adequate. Then again, that's like saying dirt wouldn't look too bad on a dirt floor.

Jase

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

13th in DPAR, 18th in DVOA. Last year he was 29th in both.

Couldn't some of this also have to do with the fact that many of the QB's who were ahead of his last year are injured/playing like **** this year? There's no doubt that Collins has played slightly better than he did last year but I can't see where Moss has had any kind of a significant impact on his game. I'd lay some of his movement up those charts on the fact that some of the guys like Leftwich, Culpepper, Bulger etc... aren't playing this year. Also you have a lot of new QB's like Losman, Orton etc... that just simply suck. I'd say the QB crop this year can't hold a candle to last year's.

Jase

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Those other ways show that Collins is having a season light years ahead of how he did last year--something that his QB rating and yards per attempt don't contradict.

And his completion % is one of his lowest in his career. So what?

Also, his YPA is .2 better than last years and only .4 above his career average. Wow, that Moss impact is rockin!

P.S. - Just so I don't have to make another post; couldn't we also say that judging by this year and how badly Moss has struggled to eclipse even last year's totals, that maybe there were mutual benefits of the Moss/Culpepper duo? I mean, sure, Culepper had a horrible half of a season but ummmm, so is Moss. It looks to me that Moss has struggled without Culpepper as well. Then again, HE IS WORTH 20 POINTS OF QB RATING!

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by avwjase

Couldn't some of this also have to do with the fact that many of the QB's who were ahead of his last year are injured/playing like **** this year? There's no doubt that Collins has played slightly better than he did last year but I can't see where Moss has had any kind of a significant impact on his game. I'd lay some of his movement up those charts on the fact that some of the guys like Leftwich, Culpepper, Bulger etc... aren't playing this year. Also you have a lot of new QB's like Losman, Orton etc... that just simply suck. I'd say the QB crop this year can't hold a candle to last year's.

Jase

And you also have guys like mini-Manning and Palmer (and a healthy Leftwich if he's eligible for ranking) playing a lot better than last year.

[IatricSB]

His improvement is his reduction of interceptions. He has a lower completion pct than last year 56.3 to 54.9 though not a huge difference. He does have a higher yds/ att with 6.8 to 7.0 this year though again, not a huge difference but it more than offsets the difference in completion pct so slight edge to this year based on those two stats. Then we get to TDs and we have a drop off in pct from 4.1 to 3.6 this year so adding that 3rd stat, I'd give the edge to last year but could be swayed to say it's a wash after those three.

Then we get to interceptions. He's reduced his rate from 3.6 last year to just 2.2 this year. I didn't do a close study, but I'd guess that may be his best rate ever or at least the top two or three.

I once used a quasi-formula to estimate the QB rating (built it into a computer football game). IIRC, you took the completion pct at face value, added it to 5 times the yds/att, added to 4 times the TD pct, subtracted with 5 times the int pct (then you added a number or something else, I don't remember exactly but it usually got in the right neighborhood with the results). So using that to compare Collin's last year and this, you'd gett something like:

Comp Pct: 1.4 advantage to last year
Yds/Att: 1.0 advantage to this year, net results +0.4 to last year
TD Pct: 2.0 for last year giving a 2.4 lead to last season
Int Pct: 7.0 advantage to this year

Net gives a 4.6 advantage to this year which is can be compared to the actual QB rating (79.6-74.8) which shows a difference of 4.8. So clearly Int Pct is what makes him a plus QB this year. So Moss is a great WR, but has not to this point made the expected impact with his new team.

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

And you also have guys like mini-Manning and Palmer (and a healthy Leftwich if he's eligible for ranking) playing a lot better than last year.

A couple of those guys were already ahead of him so they don't really matter. The guys who WERE ahead of him but are no longer ahead of him, that's what matters. To me at least. See how many QB's from last year dropped out of the top 20 due to injury.

[Luis_Rivera]

Originally Posted by avwjase

So, yet again, I'll give you the point that Collins has had 4 games where he's been a solid QB. But that leaves 9 where he's been well below the production level a team like the Raiders need from their QB.

I counted 5 games in which he was excellent, and 2 which were decent.

He hasn't done very well in the last 5 games... He had one decent one, week 11.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by avwjase

Actually, if you'd care to actually... you know, read what I wrote {I know, it's hard}, I referenced two of his 2 TD games. I said he'd had two good games and two solid games. One of his two TD performances was accompanied by 3 INT's. Putting that through your little logi-computer, that'd be 48 INT's for an entire year! Whoa! Not a good game!

So, yet again, I'll give you the point that Collins has had 4 games where he's been a solid QB. But that leaves 9 where he's been well below the production level a team like the Raiders need from their QB. They're pretty much a pass happy flag-football team with pads on. If he were playing for the Bears then sure, most of his games would be adequate. Then again, that's like saying dirt wouldn't look too bad on a dirt floor.

Jase

Ok, ok, who's alias is this? Or do you just not understand football?

You're basically saying that Collins stats are misleading, then you go on to cite his statistics to make your own argument in a later post. My mind is spinning.

Then on top of that you argue that his stats are misleading because he's had good games only 1/3rd of the time. If you take out Peyton Manning's top third of TD games this year, he averages 1.2 TD per game. SO PEYTON MANNING SUX!!!!!1111!!!

I mean really, go look at some QB stats, go watch some football, go do something. Your posts are so bad that they are embarassing me, honestly. I'm actually rooting for you, like when there's a villain that you hate in a movie you are watching, then you at some point realize exactly how pathetic he is and start feeling sorry for him, ya know?

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by avwjase

A couple of those guys were already ahead of him so they don't really matter.

Ooops, that's right. Every QB was ahead of him last year.

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Ok, ok, who's alias is this? Or do you just not understand football?

Alias? I've been on the board since March of '02, so I must be pretty dedicated to have built on an alias that long, eh? And you're telling me I don't know anything about football? This from a man who spews out hyperboles on a daily basis regarding the NFL? Or perhaps you're just blind and can't see how many people have mocked your "OMG! MOSS IS WORTH 20 RATING POINTS!" rants.

Perhaps you should take some of your own advice there hombre. Before you go gushing all over yourself and this board with your next lame brained theory. And since you're going to make this a personal squabble and deflect the discussion away from the actual meat of the debate [that pesky little fact that Moss has done jack and **** for Collins and the Raiders fortunes, let alone pad their numbers to astronomical heights which you raved about in multiple threads] I'll bid this thread farewell. Have a good one bud.

[sebastian0622]

I'm all about discussing the issue at hand, which apparently is my claim that Moss, T.O., and Johnson are worth 15-20 QB rating points:

-Culpepper has played significantly worse without Moss? check.

-McNabb has played significantly worse without T.O.? check.

-Garica has played significantly worse without T.O.? check.

-Kitna played significantly better with Johnson? check.

-Collins is having one of the best years of his career in 2005 with Moss? check.

You can argue about the level of "significantly" better or worse, but basically you're trying to hold onto Collins' performance this year as some indubitable rejection of my theory, when there is plenty to support that Collins is playing light years better this year than last year. So your "evidence" is tenuous at best (oh, and before Randy got hurt, Collins put up game ratings of 95, 93, 100, 88--about 20 points higher than his career average; plus the Raiders have an extremely difficult schedule.). And even if you were to prove that a healthy Moss wouldn't have a tremendous impact on Collins (which would be ridiculous in light of the data), you'd still have the problem of explaining Culpepper, McNabb, Garcia, and Kitna.

I guess I fail to see why my claim is so ludicrous.

[Jason Moyer]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

-McNabb has played significantly worse without T.O.? check.

7 games with TO: 59.0%, 7.06 YD/ATT, 41 ATT/INT
2 games without TO: 59.4%, 6.86 YD/ATT, 34.5 ATT/INT
Career: 58.4%, 6.60 YD/ATT, 44.6 ATT/INT

I'd have to guess that having a serious season-ending injury for all but 1 half this season had more to do with McNabb's mediocre performance than anything involving TO. I'd give him a full healthy season without TO before jumping to too many conclusions. From watching him play his entire career, I'd put DM's increase in production in 2004 down to increased accuracy moreso than the contributions from TO. Prior to last year, McNabb typically had 4-6 games a year where he was underthrowing 1/2 of his short passes, whereas the only game that really happened last year was in Pittsburgh.

Edit: To be fair, TO certainly played a major role in DM's improvements in YDS/ATT and ATT/TD, but beyond that I'm skeptical.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by Jason Moyer

7 games with TO: 59.0%, 7.06 YD/ATT, 41 ATT/INT
2 games without TO: 59.4%, 6.86 YD/ATT, 34.5 ATT/INT

I'd have to guess that having a serious season-ending injury for all but 1 half this season had more to do with McNabb's mediocre performance than anything involving TO.

For a larger sample size, you can look further back than this season.