The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Not their day...



Jose Ramirez didn't have it today and with a couple of exceptions neither did the bats as the Rays were walloped today 7-2 by the Orioles in Game 1 of the ALCS. Taj Bradley will try to keep us out of an 0-2 hole tomorrow.

[Art Deco]

Order restored...



The Rays avoided an 0-2 hole in the ALCS by coming from behind to best Baltimore 7-4 in Game 2. Jackson Chourio was in the middle of almost everything on offense, banging out 4 hits and stealing 3 bases, while Kevin Alcantara and Carson Williams had game-tying and game-winning RBI doubles respectively to immediately answer Coby Mayo's 3-run homer which put the Orioles ahead in the top of the 6th. So now it's on to Charm City in a couple of days with Jeffrey Springs taking the mound.

In the NLCS lid-lifter:

[Art Deco]

[Art Deco]

Let's go...



Kevin Alcantara had a terribly disappointing 2028 regular season, hitting 214/289/385 with 20 HR and 0.2 WAR after a great .284-30-99, 4.3-WAR season the year before, but he's come alive this postseason winning the ALDS MVP and today drilling a grand slam in the 8th to break a 2-2 tie and give the Rays a 6-4 win and a 2-1 ALCS lead. Jeffrey Springs pitched very well but gave up a 2-run Trevor Story homer in the 6th to lose a 2-0 lead before Alcantara's heroics saved the day. DL Hall will go up against his old teammates tomorrow in Game 4.

[Art Deco]

A tough one...



The bullpen was an issue in the ALDS and it was again today as Jose Alvarado couldn't hold a 5-4 lead in the 9th, giving up a 2-run walkoff homer to a lefty hitter and giving Baltimore a 6-5 win and a 2-2 series tie. Bayron Lora gave Tampa Bay the lead in the top of the 9th with the team's four homer of the game and Alvarado fanned the leadoff lefty but gave up a double to RHB Trevor Story. With one more lefty in slugging rookie Teudis Cortorreal due, Alvarado stayed in and instead of setting up Matthew Peguero for the final out he gave up a 2-run homer, a problem with the lefty this season (8 HR in 59 IP) despite his 75 movement rating. So instead of opening up a commanding 3-1 lead the Rays now have to play a best-of-3 with Jose Ramirez going tomorrow and hoping to pitch better than he did in Game 1.

In the NLCS:

[Art Deco]

Thanks again, bullpen...



Once again the Rays had a late lead and chance to win their third game in the series and once again the bullpen blew it. After a shock 7-run 5th inning which erased a seemingly-insurmountable 5-0 Baltimore lead, the pen was entrusted the rest of the way and that turned out to be a problem. Matt Cronin gave up a key hit that made it 7-6 and then in the 8th Hayden Juenger, so good during the regular season and so horrible in the playoffs, gave up the tying run on a Colton Cowser double, one of his five hits on the day. And in the 11th, just when it looked like Andrew Nardi would pitch out of a first-and-third, nobody out situation by getting two straight strikeouts, he gave up a two-out walk-off RBI single to Adley Rutschman. So now it's up to Taj Bradley in a couple of days to keep the season alive at Tropicana Field.

Meanwhile the Dodgers are just about ready to continue the defense of their 2028 title after a typical Coors Field tilt which saw them almost blow a 9-1 lead:

[Art Deco]

And it's the Dodgers in the series once again:



Byron Buxton was named MVP, hitting .409-3-9 with 7 runs in the 5-game series.

[Art Deco]

Another playoff disappointment....



Ten straight years in the playoffs and only a couple of World Series losses to the Dodgers to show for it as the Rays didn't have to worry about a bullpen meltdown tonight with no lead to blow in a 6-1 win loss which sent Baltimore to the World Series. It was pretty much over before it started as the Orioles jumped on Taj Bradley for four runs in the first and for a change the offense didn't have an answer, shut down by Kodai Senga who proved to be a great deadline acquisition by Baltimore.

I'll be back with a World Series recap in the next post when this save comes around again.

[Art Deco]

Well at least the Rays can take some consolation in knowing they lost to the eventual champs:



The Orioles were the kings of the comeback, scoring 7 times in the 8th inning of Game 3 to erase a 5-3 deficit and then winning it in the most dramatic way possible in Game 5 as trailing 1-0 in the 8th Gunnar Henderson homered to tie it up and in the 9th series MVP Coby Mayo walked it off in Bill Mazeroski/Joe Carter fashion with a homer to clinch the championship. Mayo was a blistering 10-19 with 4 HR and 6 RBI in the 5 games.

Now on to the offseason.

[Art Deco]

Six seasons now of making the playoffs but unable to win it all, with the only trip to the World Series in 2027 - this sounds like the real-life Rays as well. So what does 2029 hold in store?

First off we made a couple of moves as the World Series ended. First we claimed OF Tommy Specht off waivers from Texas. Specht made his MLB debut with the Rangers late last year and hit 5 HR in 96 AB (albeit with a .196 BA). His ratings are 50-55 across the board and he's a 60 in RF and a passable 45 in CF. In other words, a nice 4th/5th OF. He has options left so he may start the season in Durham.

Also, a trade:



Acuna was part of our infield glut, due for a raise in arbitration, and coming off a negative-WAR season after being very useful in 2027. In return we get Rosa, a Schwarber-type with 40/45 contact but 65/70 power and a 55/65 eye. He hit 230/328/406 with 8 HR and 20 walks in 44 games with the Marlins and is a better OF than Schwarber (55 LF/50 RF). He too has options so he's in the mix but not guaranteed anything.

Anyway the big news is that Stu Sternberg is ready to splurge this year with a $190M payroll. Here are the projected salaries:



If we were to keep everyone, this group adds up to $155M. Gelof was a nice addition last year but $4.8M might be a lot for a guy who mainly plays againt LHP only. After his 2026 Cy Young season Taj has put together seasons of 4.23 and 4.85 ERAs and averaged about 2.5 WAR so $15M is pushing it for him. And unless Pepiot is going to start, $8.5M is kind of steep for him.

Meanwhile we have the following free agents:

C Shea Langeliers, SP Jeffrey Springs, RP Matt Brash, RP Jose Alvarado, and RP Jovani Moran.

Springs was always a rental after he re-acquired him, Alvarado was a disappointment and Brash will command more than I'd want to pay for a swingman. Moran is hurt, so that leaves Langeliers as the one guy I'm going to miss as he wants 8x26 to extend. He had a nice 3-WAR season last year and I know I could probably get him down to 6x23 or something like that but that's a lot of dinero. We have Patrick Bailey ready to step in and he should so a good job. The position-by-position outlook:

C: As just mentioned Bailey should take over as the regular. Who will back him up? Good question. Blake Hunt is still at Durham and a defensive whiz, but lousy with the bat. Dominic Keegan is the opposite: a good hitter but a 40/45 catcher. Mac Guscette splits the difference with 40 contact but 55/60 power & eye and a 50 glove. A wild card is 2026 draftee Zion Rose, who's MLB-rated at 50/55 contact, 55/60 power, 50/55 eye but 45 with the glove. Rose could also play the OF but hasn't been above AA yet. So plenty of internal options.

1B: Bobby Marsh will try to bounce back from his 2.1 WAR season after looking like a superstar with 6.5 WAR in 2027. The ratings are (mostly) still there with a slight contact erosion but we're hoping for positive regression.

2B: Junior Caminero was the answer with a brilliant couple of months and then he tore a labrum, putting him out until early May. We have good cover there with Tetsuhisha Hirata, who hit 283/372/454 but had a -3.4 ZR in only 39 games despite being rated 65 at the position.

SS: Carson Williams is a stud, but he can't seem to stay healthy for a full season (rated "fragile"), earning 3.2 WAR in 133 games.

3B: Elly De La Cruz returns to do his thing coming off a 4.6 WAR season that could have been better had he gone deep more than 23 times which he is quite capable of.

IF: With L.Acuna gone Masyn Winn becomes the primary infield backup although Hirata could take that role when Caminero comes back. Winn spent most of 2028 at AAA but that was due more to a numbers game.

LF: Kevin Alcantara had a strange season, dropping from .284-30-99 to .214-20-62 but came alive in the postseason and nearly got us to the World Series. Similar to Marsh, I'm hoping for a bounceback especially given the encouraging playoff signs.

CF: Jackson Chourio had a great year and although he's probably not really a CF anymore he can still fake the position.

RF: Mason Auer bounced back last year, splitting the difference between his incredible 2026 (5.2 WAR) and his lousy 2027 (1.3 WAR) with a 3.8-WAR year and gives us top-shelf speed and defense.

OF: Bayron Lora was the primary OF backup and was productive at 257/395/451 with 12 homers, good for 1.3 WAR. He'll get competition from new acquisitions Specht and Rosa as well as returnee Joe Quelch, who has prodigious power and plays a good LF.

DH: Triston Casas disappointed last year at 235/303/456. He didn't get on base enough despite hitting a career-high 26 HR and only earned 0.8 WAR. He's also getting pricey so he's not a cast-iron lock to return. Lora, Specht and Rosa could fill in here (and one will against LHP if Casas stays), and lefty-swinging Cooper Kinney could finally get his chance after hitting 61 HR and Durham the last two seasons including hitting .343 last year. Thomas Saggese, who was great in 2027 with the big club but started poorly last year and found himself in Durham for the duration, is still in the mix as well.

Rotation: Things really hinge on whether Shane McClanahan isn't worse for the wear after shoulder inflammation shut him down for the final two months as he was on his way to a Cy Young season. He gives us a true ace on a unit that was down more than up last year. The aforementioned Bradley needs to get back in gear, Jose Ramirez was an adequate 4th-starter type after coming over in trade, and Waylin Santana needs to step back up after a dazzling 2027 rookie season gave way to an injury-plagued mediocre one in 2028. DL Hall and Ryan Pepiot are 5th-starter candidates and one of these years Jack Perkins should get his shot although he's been quite valuable in the pen. Also we'll have to pay Chang-hyeok Kim $4.5M to keep around so if we do he'll be more likely than not to get a chance to start.

Bullpen: Hall, Pepiot (if kept) and Perkins probably figure into the mix with Hall more likely to return to the pen given that we'll lose lefty relievers Alvarado and Moran to free agency. Andrew Nardi is still around but we'll probably be looking for a lefty arm to acquire. Hayden Juenger is the RH setup man with Fernando Costume out until mid-season while Matt Canterino remains the long man. And closer Matthew Peguero is back but despite 39 saves he had some issues closing out games. Definitely an area to address.

Farm help: Santiago Suarez, who came briefly in September, has swingman potential, as does one-time top prospect Joel Diaz. 3B Willy Vasquez, with his 55 power and 55 glove at 3B, deserves an MLB shot but is blocked by EDLC. The true wild card is 2028 first-round pick Ethan Holliday, who seriously raked (352/444/659) in two months at AA Montgomery with his 70 (potential 80) MLB contact tool but will need to work on his lousy defense at 2B. Still he's an impact bat who will probably help us sooner rather than later.

So the offseason goals are:

1) Determine whether to keep the likes of Casas, Pepiot and perhaps even Taj as all seem potentially overpaid in arbitration.

2) Sort out the backup C situation. There are probably enough internal options but if the opportunity to really upgrade here presents itself I just may take it.

3) Upgrade the bullpen, replacing the lost lefties in particular. Also I wouldn't mind adding a reliable starter. Depending on how things go with #1 above, I may have $40-50M to spend.

[Art Deco]

As always we start with the notable retirements.

MLBers of note: Gerrit Cole, Jose Altuve, Zack Wheeler, Christian Yelich, Seiya Suzuki, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, J.D. Davis, Noah Syndergaard, Joc Pederson, Daniel Vogelbach, Andrew Beninitendi, Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte, Javier Baez

Former Rays: Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Jason Adam, Jordan Luplow, Emilio Pagan, Anthony Banda

Time for another trade:



Winn was pegged to make $4.2M in arbitration which is a lot for a backup so I shopped him, and came up with Teodo who could be a part of our rotation next year:



Incredible stuff and movement, horrendous control. It's all added up to decent numbers though and he'll make a good 4th/5th starter. Despite shedding Winn and Luisangel Acuna, we still have Tetsuhisa Hirata and Thomas Saggese to be backups.

In other news, I've decided to non-tender Triston Casas (there wasn't really any kind of trade market for him) instead of paying him $10M. We have numerous options to DH, any one of whom should hopefully equal or better Casas' 0.8 WAR last year.

Awards season:

Gold Gloves: None for the Rays.

Reliever of the Year: Houston's Jonathan Sprinkle won the AL award thanks to 40 saves and a 1.27 ERA while Milwaukee's Fray Morelo took the NL nod with 55 saves and a 2.57 ERA.

Silver Sluggers: No Rays winners here either, although former Ray Wander Franco won at 2B in the NL with the Dodgers.

Rookie of the Year: Detroit 1B Pete Anderson won in the AL after a .282-32-113 season, beating out teammate Eric Groth, a Cy Young contender after going 22-5, 3.23. The NL winner was Colorado 2B Jack Ruckert, voted unanimously after hitting .302-18-71.

Cy Young: And the rookie Groth did take the AL award, nosing out Seattle's Triston McKenzie 162-152 (and 16-11 in first-place votes). Despite a truncated season our Shane McClanahan finished third and earned three first-place votes (not from me though). Philly's Andrew Painter was the NL winner, beating out Milwaukee's Moises Brito 177-153 and 19-11. Painter was 19-4, 2.54.

MVP: LA's Japanese star Tsuneharu Sugihara won it after a monster .327-51-150 season over Aaron Judge, who hit .304-57-125 and out WAR'd him. In the NL Washington 2nd-year OF Malakhi Knight hit .298-48-121 to win handily over former Ray Wander Franco.

November 15: Claimed P Magdiel Cotto on waivers from the White Sox.

Cotto is a hard-throwing reliever rated 70/50/50 who was a rookie last year with the Yankees before they waived him and he was claimed by the White Sox, who apparently couldn't find room for him either. He'll figure into our bullpen mix.

November 18: Texas acquired hard-hitting OF Zac Veen from the Rockies for a top OF prospect.

November 24: Mega trade incoming!



The Padres were looking to move Tatis' contract, and I obliged them as we had nearly $50M to spend. And it didn't cost anyone off the active roster with the best prospect maybe being Allen, our 2nd-round pick from a few years ago who hasn't gotten out of complex ball yet. Langford was once the #1 overall pick in 2023 but has flamed out in the bigs and we signed him to a minor league deal last August. Beal could be someone's 5th starter but has 35 movement so I was never going to trust him. So nothing we'll miss, and we get 2 seasons of Tatis at $29M/year. Tatis will probably play LF with Kevin Alcantara thrust into the DH mix, but we get a true impact bat, one who admittedly is coming off a tough, injury-plagued year but still has elite ratings.

December 3: The first notable free agent signed as SS Tim Anderson joined the Blue Jays on a 3/77 deal.

December 5: SS Vaughn Grissom, who had big first year (29 HR) with the Dodgers after coming over from Atlanta, stayed in SoCal by signing a massive 8/280 deal with the Angels.

December 7: 2B Andres Gimenez, a perennial .300, 5-WAR guy, joined St. Louis for 5/183.

December 9: More big free agent signings: Jack Flaherty (NYY, 2/21), Kodai Senga (NYY, 3/69), former Ray Jeffrey Springs (BOS, 2/42), Spencer Strider (SF, 7/179), and Andrew Vaughn (BOS, 7/191)

December 10: The White Sox went big (4/85) for former Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez.

December 11: The Padres inked C Alejandro Kirk to a 4/61 pact and the Mets dealt 3B Ronny Mauricio to the Marlins for a couple of prospects.

December 13: Former Ray Shane Baz signed a 4/29 deal with Miami.

December 17: Toronto surprised some people by dealing 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the Dodgers for a couple of prospects, including potential 5-star pitcher Dan Scism.

December 20: The Rangers signed long-time Arizona 2B Ketel Marte to a 3/76 deal.

December 22: The Diamondbacks sent 3 prospects to the Cubs for SS Dansby Swanson.

December 22: Added C Mac Guscette, IF Owen Paino and P James Nesta to the 40-man roster.

Rule 5 time again. Guscette has a shot at the backup C job, Paino was our first-round pick in 2024 and had a great season at A+ Bowling Green, looking like a decent hitting prospect. Nesta was a 2nd round pick in that same draft and has 55/55/45 potential as a starter.

December 23: Drafted SS Luis Almeyda from the Baltimore Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft.

This was kind of insane on my part as Almeyda is a 22-year-old who hasn't played above High-A but has this profile:



This is quite a prospect profile but of course we'd have to keep him on the active roster and we already have a lot of infielders. More likely I will shop him around to see what I can get in return.

Meanwhile we didn't lose anyone in the draft, which saw a total of 16 players taken.

December 24: There goes Shea Langeliers for 5/54 to Boston. That's surprisingly low as he was initially demanding $25-26M/year and turned down our $22M qualifying offer, which means we net a supplemental 1st round pick. I might have gone after him if he knew he'd sign for barely over $10M/year.

December 26: Boston stayed aggressive, signing slugger Nolan Jones to a 2/43 contract, while Jose Alvarado once again went from us to Philadelphia (just like in 2021), this time as a free agent for 2/17.

December 27: Baltimore traded longtime 1B Ryan Mountcastle to the Yankees for a catching prospect.

December 30: The Yankees continue to retool, adding SP Triston McKenzie on a 1/19 deal. The skinny righty was 2nd in the Cy Young voting after a 15-10, 3.09 season with Seattle although his 50/40/70 ratings suggest someone not quite that good.

[Art Deco]

January 5: Good news from the training staff on Junior Caminero's injury. Originally slated to miss the first month of the season it now looks like he might be ready for Opening Day.

January 8: 37-year-old free agent Kris Bryant, still getting it done coming off a 4-WAR season for Detroit, signed a 2/41 deal with Oakland.

January 10: The Pirates traded three minor leaguers to the Mets for veteran OF Brandon Nimmo. Meanwhile the Hall of Fame voting is in and a trio of greats got in:

The ballots are counted and the results are in. This year we will witness three players added to the Hall of Fame. Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, and Zack Greinke received the ultimate honor this year in being voted as the newest members of the Hall of Fame.

The full voting results are included here. Players require 75% of ballots cast to be elected to the Hall, may stay on the ballot for up to 10 years if they receive at least 5% of the votes. Players must be retired for 5 years before they are eligible for induction to the Hall of Fame.

1B Miguel Cabrera 98.9 (1st year) Inducted HOF
2B Robinson Cano 80.8 (2nd year) Inducted HOF
SP Zack Greinke 75.0 (1st year) Inducted HOF
C Yadier Molina 73.2 (2nd year)
C Joe Mauer 64.5 (6th year)
SS Alex Rodriguez 63.4 (8th year)
SP CC Sabathia 62.7 (5th year)
C Buster Posey 35.5 (3rd year)
LF Ryan Braun 33.3 (4th year)

Close but no cigar for Yadi, but he should make it next year. Mauer, A-Rod and Sabathia all had strong showings, although time is running out for A-Rod.

January 12: Another of our free agents has found a new home as Matt Brash joined the Mets on a 4/68 deal where he'll be a starter again. Also Tetsuhisa Hirata has found himself in the dreaded "visited a guru in India" storyline.

January 15: CF Harrison Bader joins the Phillies for 4/99.

January 20: Comings and goings. Our long-time lefty reliever Jovani Moran joined Philly on a 1-year, $1.9M deal while we signed an intriguing international amateur:



Looks like the ideal leadoff hitter, should he pan out.

January 31: Preseason began, and the budget was left unchanged so no extra money to spend.

March 2: A quiet February was followed by SP Frankie Montas joining the Giants for 2/27.

March 4: With exhibition games underway, San Diego signed 39-year-old OF George Springer to a 1-year, $2.8M deal.

March 5: And the last of our major free agents signed elsewhere with Triston Casas going to the Giants for a less-than-major 1/4.9 deal. The Yankees also added Tyler O'Neill for one year at $5.6M.

March 6: The Mets made a couple of big one-year signings: closer Emmanuel Clase for $7.3M and OF Daulton Varsho for $4.8M.

March 7: Zach Gelof, who provided quality at-bats for us after coming over on waivers mid-season, signed a minor-league deal with St. Louis.

March 8: After a year in St. Louis Alex Bregman has returned to the Astros on a 1/6 deal.

March 10: Junior Caminero returned to action today, putting him on schedule to start the season as our 2B.

March 20: Another reunion as Edwin Diaz comes back to the Mets on a 1-year, $12.9M contract after a season in Boston.

March 21: Longman Matt Canterino suffered a herniated disc and will be out 5-6 weeks in our first significant injury of the spring.

[Art Deco]

The Opening Day Roster:

C-Bailey, Hunt. Blake Hunt made it as the backup due to being out of options. He has a superior glove but can't hit much so we'll see how it goes.
1B-Marsh
2B-Caminero
SS-C.Williams
3B-De La Cruz
IF-Saggese, Almeyda. Saggese was out of options and will be given another chance to regain the hitting form of 2027. Almeyda is the Rule 5 guy who will serve as the backup MI.
LF-Tatis
CF-Chourio
RF-Auer
OF-Lora. Lora beat out Specht, Rosa and Quelch for the 4th (5th) OF role.
DH-Alcantara.

The only thing I don't like is that there isn't a decent LHB off the bench.

SP-McClanahan*, J.Ramirez, Teodo, Bradley, W.Santana
LR-Kim (time to see what we have in him)
MR-Cotto*, Hall*, Nardi*, Pepiot, Cronin*
SU-Juenger, Perkins
CL-Peguero
*lefties

The preseason picks:



Not sold on us to repeat as division winners. One thing I missed in the offseason posts was that Kansas City traded Juan Soto to Houston for 3 prospects. Soto is in the final year of his contract.

Opening Day:



Rays win a wild opener at Fenway with Tatis and Elly living up to their billing in the preseason predictions as two of the top hitters in the AL.

[Art Deco]

Record: 12-10
4th place, AL East 3.5 behind Baltimore/Boston, 1 behind the 3rd wild card.

As they've done the past two seasons the Rays have stumbled somewhat out of the gate, playing ~.500 ball. The starting pitching has been abysmal (5.97 ERA) and the offense has struggled (dead last in hits, 14th in the AL in RBI and 13th in OBP) and the defense has been awful as well so it's a small miracle they've won 12 games so far (pythag has them 11-11). One bright spot though has been the winter's big acquisition, Fernando Tatis Jr. How bright?



He's almost single-handedly won a couple of games for us and I'd hate to think where we'd be without him. Meanwhile on the injury front Kevin Alcantara went on the IL with a stiff back but will return once his stint is up, Shane McClanahan left his last start with a dead arm but avoided the IL and on the last day of the month lefty reliever Matt Cronin tore his meniscus and will be out until September.



The Angels are off to an incredible start while the AL East looks extremely competitive this year so the Rays' slow start won't be as easily overcome as it was the last two seasons. Too bad they're not in the AL Central which doesn't have anyone over .500.



These are some ugly team numbers all around, except for the bullpen which has been the saving grace. Despite its dysfunction the offense has hit a bunch of homers which have kept them afloat (thanks largely to Tatis) and although the starters have struggled they've at least kept the ball in the park and that ERA has been bloated by the lousy defense.



Alcantara was hitting well before hitting the IL and although Bobby Marsh's numbers look pretty lousy he started the year 1-for-33 and has actually been one of the team's hottest hitters over the last 10 days or so. Bench guys like Saggese and Lora have been very productive in limited at-bats and may start earning more.



As you can see the starters have all been victims of BABIP with all 5 at least .340 against including an absurd .500 for McClanahan. Like the big winter pickup on the hitting side the big winter pickup on the pitching side has excelled as Emilano Teodo has been absolutely dominant with a 2/30 BB/K ratio in 22 IP.



Nothing exciting brewing down on the farm as our best prospects are years away from making an impact and months away from playing in the DSL. Nobody at the full-season level is standing out so far but some of the older guys not on the list with MLB experience (Specht, Rosa) or too old for the list (Cooper Kinney) are off to good starts at Durham and could see some big club time.

[Art Deco]

Record: 29-21 (17-11 in May)
3rd place AL East, 3 1/2 behind Baltimore; 2nd Wild Card

A decent month for Tampa Bay but one in which they suffered a crippling blow at a position they couldn't afford to suffer one as ace Shane McClanahan tore his UCL and will be out until mid-2030. The starters have been inconsistent to put it kindly and without Mac it will be even more of an adventure. Ryan Pepiot was moved into the rotation to take McClanahan's place and we'll definitely be on the lookout for upgrades via trade over the next couple of months. Meanwhile the offense perked up as it usually does after the first month and they're in decent playoff position but the AL East looks very tough this year and division may be a heavy lift. Also going down to injury was lefty reliever Magdiel Cotto with an elbow strain but he'll be back in mid-June.

The other big news of the month was a shakeup at 2B with Junior Caminero dealt:



Caminero was only hitting 241/323/293 and providing lousy defense at the position and although he's still only 25 he seemed to be regressing and has apparently maxed out at 55 contact/50 power so it looks like he'll never be the stud he once appeared he'd be as a prospect. In return we got another 2B in Micheu, who didn't get need to go on the 40-man and has hit over .300 at every level of the minors since being drafted in the 3rd round by Boston in 2027, including .329-20-95 at 3 stops last season and was hitting 333/373/638 with 11 HR in 36 games at AAA El Paso. He's 55/50 contact power right now with 60/55 potential and is rated a 55 at the position. For now he's in the minors and that's because we've called up last year's 1st-round pick Ethan Holliday, brother of Orioles superstar Jackson and son of near-HOFer Matt. Holliday was a decent 296/369/488 at Durham and is rated 70 contact (75 potential) with 45 power (50 potential). He's not a dazzling fielder so he'll fit right in with the rest of our defense.



Almost managed shutouts on every Sunday this month.



The Orioles had a big month and it didn't help matters for the Rays that they were swept in Charm City late in the month. As you can see Fernando Tatis Jr leads MLB in homers and RBI and Elly de la Cruz had a huge month. Look out for the Pirates over in the NL.



Some things to like here, but a lot of warts. On offense the team doesn't get on base enough but they somewhat make up for it with the longball and despite being 8th in AL they'll 11th in MLB in scoring. They can steal bases like crazy but also have been making a lot of outs on the bases. Meanwhile although the starting pitching has a poor ERA a lot of it is the result of the horrid defense as the staff as a whole is 1st in WAR. The bullpen has been great by any measure though.



Kind of surprised Elly wasn't named Hitter of the Month as he was massive in May while guys like Chourio and Marsh bounced back from miserable Aprils. Tatis cooled down from his insane first month but still remained productive and Holliday hit the ground hitting after being called up mid-month.



Teodo has really saved the staff (or at least the rotation), following up his brilliant April with a just-as-good May. Pepiot had 2 excellent starts after replacing McClanahan before getting bombed in Toronto in his last one. That's lefty rookie reliever Geudis Ramos at the top of the list with a couple of scoreless outings after being called up to replace Cotto. He has a future as a bullpen arm. Joel Diaz also got a callup when Santiago Suarez had to go on the IL with back stiffness.



Nobody really distinguishing himself among our prospects in the minors (except for the recalled Holliday) but someone who isn't eligible for this list since he has 35 too many ABs to qualify as a rookie is this guy:



Rosa has put up insane HR numbers at Durham (and perhaps he should, with 70-rated MLB power) with 22 in only 170 AB. Kevin Alcantara hasn't been terrible but has been inconsistent, losing some ABs to Bayron Lora as we have a bit of a glut at LF/DH so Rosa could be up to help soon, especially if we swing a deal.

[Art Deco]

Record: 41-34 (12-13 for the month)
3rd place AL East, 5 1/2 behind Baltimore; 3rd wild card, up 2 1/2 on Chicago

As the record would indicate it was a month of mediocrity for the Rays as they spun their wheels in 3rd place in the AL East and are fortunate to have a lead in the wild card thanks to uninspiring play from their pursuers. The primary culprit for the inconsistency was the pitching, which was consistently poor from the McClanahan-less rotation once again. Only Jose Ramirez (3.69) managed an ERA below 4.50 among the starters, including a game in which he took a no-hitter into the 9th before losing it. And in an attempt to do something about it, we swung a mid-month trade to try an improve the rotation:



Alcantara just hasn't flashed any sustained success since the beginning of 2028 outside of last year's playoffs and the emergence of Jeffry Rosa and his 70 power at Durham (who was only slugging .725 there on 28 HR in 207 AB in 56 games) made Alcantara expendable. And in return we get a proven veteran starter in Kirby, who has elite 70 control and decent 50 stuff. Although he was worth 1.6 WAR last year Kirby is only two years removed from a 4.7 WAR season. Kirby is making $18.8M this year and next but the Padres are picking up all but $7.5M/year of that. Unfortunately his first few starts with the Rays have been disastrous with a 12.10 ERA and 23 hits allowed in 9.2 IP over 3 starts thanks to a ludicrous .550 BABIP. He has a 2/11 BB/K ratio and only 1 homer allowed so I'm calling it bad luck for now. Rosa meanwhile has picked up where he left off with the Bulls, slugging .533 with 6 HR in 15 games for the big club.

We also made a couple of waiver claims to try and beef up the bullpen, which suffered more injuries including a minor one to Hayden Juenger which forced him to miss the second half of the month. They say you can't go home again but that isn't true for Jovani Moran as we claimed the lefty who spent the previous 5 years with us from Philly. He missed most of last year with injuries but his stuff remains intact and he's looked good since joining us. Also claimed was righty hard-thrower Juan Nunez from Oakland (65/70/50-rated) but after a couple of outings with the Rays he suffered an elbow strain and will be out until August. To make room for Nunez we pulled the plug on DL Hall, who has been dreadful this year with 29 walks in 31 IP, a 6.39 ERA and -0.4 WAR. He was a pending free agent anyway and was released after clearing waivers and refusing a demotion to Durham.

How things look around MLB as we're just about to the midway point of the season:



We'll get into more detail after the hitting stats but Elly De La Cruz is having an MVP-type season as you can see and we wouldn't be in a playoff position without him.



As you can see the offense has picked up considerably but the starting pitching (5.08 ERA) is just dreadful. Of course it's hard to untwine that from the god-awful defense we're playing behind them. One move that was made was to switch Jackson Chourio from CF to LF as he already had a -4.8 ZR in 56 games this year after being -5.2 for the full 2028 season. He's been positive in LF but it's a bit of robbing Peter to pay Paul as we had to move Mason Auer, a gold glove-caliber RF, to CF. And Auer already has a -2.6 ZR in only 20 games there so that many not be a solution as he was +3.6 in only 43 games in RF. We actually have a good defensive CF in the organization in 33-year-old veteran Cody Bellinger at Durham where he has a 6.7 ZR in 71 games but he's only hitting 269/341/416 there so we'd have to sacrifice Rosa's massive power to play him there. It may yet come to that.



Since we're roughly at the halfway point I'm going with the YTD stats in this post which shows we're being carried by the two superstars, De La Cruz (who had 10 HR and hit 311/348/642 in June) and Tatis. But for one night we were carried by this guy, who did something I've never had happen in the tens of thousands of Rays games I've managed across this save and the three others:



Yep, never had a 4-homer game from anybody and of all people Williams, who has moderate power, ended up doubling his season's dinger total in one memorable night. Williams now joins several others tied for the MLB single-game record.



Look at all those inflated BABIPs. Making matters worse is that Teodo came crashing back to Earth in June (0-2, 6.56 in 5 starts) after being lights-out in April and May and we lost two games when Peguero blew leads in the 9th inning after he was untouchable in the first two months.



Holliday has hit very well as you can see from the big club batting stats earlier in this post and has held his own at 2B (a netural ZR, which practically makes him Brooks Robinson on this team). Surprisingly not shown here, ranking #31 and #41 respectively in the org, are a couple of big bats at AA Montgomery 3B Owen Paino and OF Brailer Guerrero. I'm not sure why since Paino was our top pick in 2024, has good current and potential ratings, and is hitting 325/396/549 with 16 HR and is on pace for 5.7 WAR there. Guerrero meanwhile was our prize IFA in 2023, is already rated 50 contact/55 power at the MLB level, and is hitting 331/401/607 with 19 HR. Right now both are blocked at the big league level (Paino can play 2B and SS as well but is blocked there too) but could help right now if needed and seem like much better prospects than most of those ranked above them.

I'll be back with a draft recap as that will happen early in the month as well with an All-Star roundup.

[Art Deco]

The All-Star teams:

Representing the American League All-Stars this year will be:

SP Cody Bradford (LAA) - 9-3, 3.24 ERA, 114.0 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.8 WAR
SP Biembenido Brito (TEX) - 6-6, 3.69 ERA, 102.1 IP, 1.39 WHIP, 12.8 K/9, 1.3 WAR
SP Luis Gil (BAL) - 3-3, 2.81 ERA, 67.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 10.4 K/9, 1.9 WAR
SP Logan Gilbert (SEA) - 9-6, 3.62 ERA, 119.1 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 WAR
SP Eric Groth (DET) - 8-8, 3.87 ERA, 142.0 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.6 WAR
SP Cristian Javier (LAA)* - 15-2, 1.87 ERA, 134.2 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.7 WAR
SP Prince Lovette (CLE) - 8-6, 4.07 ERA, 126.0 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 3.1 WAR
RP Chang-hyeok Kim (TB) - 1-1, 2.39 ERA, 49.0 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 0.9 WAR
RP Carlos Luna (HOU) - 8-4, 3.69 ERA, 105.0 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Elvis Alvarado (DET) - 3-3, 11 SV, 1.95 ERA, 32.1 IP, 0.96 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 1.7 WAR
CL Ronan Kopp (BOS) - 1-3, 3.14 ERA, 66.0 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 1.6 WAR
CL Andres Munoz (SEA)* - 3-1, 23 SV, 1.34 ERA, 33.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Jonathan Sprinkle (HOU) - 1-3, 19 SV, 2.52 ERA, 35.2 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 13.4 K/9, 1.1 WAR
C Edgar Quero (LAA) - .264/.387/.461, 254 AB, 12 HR, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
C Dalton Rushing (TEX) - .300/.348/.532, 267 AB, 16 HR, 139 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
C Adley Rutschman (BAL)* - .271/.360/.453, 258 AB, 11 HR, 123 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
1B Pete Anderson (DET) - .311/.373/.529, 367 AB, 15 HR, 10 SB, 144 wRC+, 2.8 WAR
1B Andrew Vaughn (HOU)* - .303/.381/.523, 327 AB, 18 HR, 142 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
2B William Bergolla (OAK) - .280/.340/.384, 289 AB, 4 HR, 100 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
2B Vaughn Grissom (LAA)* - .265/.325/.420, 355 AB, 10 HR, 20 SB, 104 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
3B Addison Barger (DET) - .284/.361/.565, 271 AB, 17 HR, 3 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B Elly De La Cruz (TB)* - .293/.338/.589, 341 AB, 28 HR, 19 SB, 151 wRC+, 4.4 WAR
3B Nolan Jones (BOS) - .294/.367/.482, 309 AB, 12 HR, 6 SB, 132 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
3B Coby Mayo (BAL) - .265/.328/.521, 332 AB, 24 HR, 4 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
SS Antonio Anderson (MIN) - .278/.340/.398, 334 AB, 4 HR, 1 SB, 102 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
SS Gunnar Henderson (BAL)* - .286/.394/.487, 224 AB, 10 HR, 16 SB, 144 wRC+, 3.0 WAR (Injured)
SS Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - .230/.280/.383, 243 AB, 9 HR, 10 SB, 78 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
LF Teudis Cortorreal (BAL) - .286/.353/.557, 262 AB, 19 HR, 4 SB, 147 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
LF Dominic Fletcher (BOS) - .314/.377/.614, 223 AB, 14 HR, 1 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
LF Juan Soto (HOU)* - .261/.401/.481, 322 AB, 19 HR, 3 SB, 141 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
LF Zac Veen (TEX) - .301/.381/.494, 332 AB, 12 HR, 18 SB, 140 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
CF Jay Allen II (TOR)* - .333/.428/.527, 294 AB, 11 HR, 10 SB, 161 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
CF Michael Mullinax (KC) - .317/.376/.636, 338 AB, 25 HR, 16 SB, 160 wRC+, 3.8 WAR
CF Alex Ramirez (CWS) - .272/.322/.480, 323 AB, 16 HR, 10 SB, 118 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
RF Aaron Judge (NYY)* - .230/.346/.511, 270 AB, 23 HR, 5 SB, 127 wRC+, 2.0 WAR (Injured)
RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (TB)* - .280/.361/.588, 279 AB, 19 HR, 27 SB, 155 wRC+, 3.4 WAR (Injured)
RF Kyle Tucker (HOU) - .263/.359/.475, 354 AB, 19 HR, 6 SB, 130 wRC+, 3.0 WAR



Utterly shocked to see Kim selected - he's primarily been used in low-leverage relief and while he's pitched well, c'mon. Elly (the top vote-getter) and Tatis were no-brainers of course. Oh and you see the (injured) next to Tatis? He suffered an intercostal strain on July 8 and will be out 5-6 weeks. Yikes!

The National League roster includes the following players:

SP Moises Brito (MIL) - 7-5, 2.84 ERA, 120.1 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.3 WAR
SP Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 9-5, 2.57 ERA, 143.2 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 3.0 WAR
SP Sung-ho Kim (NYM) - 8-5, 2.69 ERA, 123.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.4 WAR
SP Andrew Painter (PHI)* - 8-6, 5.01 ERA, 115.0 IP, 1.50 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 1.9 WAR
SP Moises Rodriguez (SD) - 3-4, 3.60 ERA, 75.0 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 WAR
SP Oliver Roque (CHC) - 5-5, 3.95 ERA, 93.1 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.4 WAR
SP Alex Santos II (CIN) - 7-5, 4.38 ERA, 113.0 IP, 1.34 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 0.7 WAR
SP Gavin Stone (AZ) - 10-3, 2.76 ERA, 107.2 IP, 1.25 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.1 WAR
RP Will Brian (SF) - 3-5, 3.93 ERA, 52.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 0.6 WAR
RP Jose Castillo (ATL) - 2-2, 2.09 ERA, 47.1 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 1.1 WAR
RP Fray Morelo (MIL) - 2-1, 1.82 ERA, 24.2 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Emmanuel Clase (NYM) - 1-8, 15 SV, 2.80 ERA, 35.1 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, 0.2 WAR
CL Eric Torres (ATL) - 4-2, 25 SV, 3.66 ERA, 39.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 0.6 WAR
CL Alex Vesia (PHI)* - 2-4, 24 SV, 1.45 ERA, 37.1 IP, 0.80 WHIP, 12.5 K/9, 1.2 WAR
C Francisco Alvarez (NYM) - .232/.332/.460, 263 AB, 17 HR, 117 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
C Diego Cartaya (PIT)* - .284/.392/.538, 264 AB, 16 HR, 1 SB, 150 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
C Alejandro Kirk (SD) - .251/.341/.390, 251 AB, 6 HR, 103 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
1B Jesse Bullard (SD) - .254/.333/.534, 311 AB, 25 HR, 1 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
1B Dylan Crews (WSH)* - .272/.367/.472, 320 AB, 15 HR, 4 SB, 124 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
2B Luisangel Acuna (MIA) - .308/.359/.490, 263 AB, 7 HR, 12 SB, 134 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
2B Oswaldo Cabrera (COL)* - .288/.347/.502, 285 AB, 11 HR, 1 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
2B Wander Franco (LAD) - .301/.359/.493, 335 AB, 11 HR, 7 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
2B Jack Ruckert (COL)* - .398/.465/.620, 266 AB, 12 HR, 6 SB, 192 wRC+, 4.4 WAR
3B Brainer Bonaci (COL) - .342/.402/.474, 348 AB, 6 HR, 4 SB, 135 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
3B Cam Collier (CIN)* - .297/.358/.459, 333 AB, 13 HR, 1 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
3B Zack Gelof (STL) - .305/.374/.479, 282 AB, 9 HR, 1 SB, 135 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
SS Rene Ramirez Jr. (STL)* - .290/.342/.515, 338 AB, 18 HR, 1 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
LF Zaid Diaz (MIA) - .285/.366/.514, 323 AB, 22 HR, 1 SB, 144 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
LF Robert Hassell III (CIN)* - .341/.403/.526, 346 AB, 12 HR, 11 SB, 156 wRC+, 3.6 WAR
LF T.J. White (WSH) - .335/.419/.532, 233 AB, 11 HR, 1 SB, 158 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
CF Evan Carter (PIT)* - .287/.382/.519, 320 AB, 16 HR, 7 SB, 144 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
RF Ryan Clifford (AZ) - .274/.371/.583, 288 AB, 25 HR, 6 SB, 155 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
RF Bryce Harper (PHI)* - .331/.393/.684, 329 AB, 29 HR, 7 SB, 188 wRC+, 4.3 WAR
RF Malakhi Knight (WSH) - .300/.354/.585, 337 AB, 25 HR, 8 SB, 148 wRC+, 3.5 WAR


The Derby:


Elly was selected for this but was eliminated in the first round by Coby Mayo.





The game:



Elly was 1-2 with a single and Kim pitched the 5th, pulling a Houdini act as he loaded the bases with one out but got Bryce Harper to pop out and then caught former Ray Wander Franco looking for a third strike to get out of it.

The draft:




All ratings discussed are potential unless indicated otherwise.


Crisp: A 21-year old CF from the University of San Diego who is rated 75 contact, 65 power and 65 eye. He'll cap out at a 40 in CF but could be a 60 in a corner which is where he'll end up but the bat will play anywhere if he gets close to reaching that potential.

Hammie: 18-year-old HS catcher out of Maryland who could be a 75 contact/70 power guy but doesn't look like much of a catcher (40). Again another bat that will find its way into a lineup if it pans out.

Bishop: A 17-year-old kid from upstate NY with 70/60 potential at the bat but looks like a future DH with a 40 defense ceiling in LF.

Ramos: Another bat-first high school guy, from Hartford with 55 contact and 70 power but 45 at best behind the plate. If he lives up to the first two he can play as a 45 receiver.

Amos: Our scouts must have spent all their time in the Northeast since here's another CT high schooler with only 45/55/40 potential as a starter.

Grider: A high school kid for Arkansas who has 50/50/50 potential, so a 5th starter at best most likely.

The trade:



We were getting some trade offers for Quelch, who even with the Tatis injury wasn't going to crack our OF, and the Angels were willing to trade us closer Victor Vodnik and we could use the back-end bullpen help with Matthew Peguero struggling of late. We also got a decent starter in the deal with Lambert, who's rated 60/50/45, making him a good 4/5 candidate whenever we should need him although he'll pitch at Durham for now after spending time with LA's AA team.

[Art Deco]

Record: 56-45 (15-11 for the month)
3rd place AL East, 6 behind Boston; 3rd wild card 4 up on the White Sox

It was an eventful July for the Rays, both good and bad. It started out bad with the injury to Fernando Tatis Jr. mentioned in the previous post and his bat was missed. And while 15-11 isn't terrible it still saw them fall farther behind in the division as the red-hot Red Sox took over first from Baltimore and with only two months left a wild card is the likely ceiling for this team. We also lost SS Carson Williams to a bone marrow edema in his wrist and he'll be out until late August, pressing inexperienced Rule 5 guy Luis Alemyda into everyday action. But there was some good too; aside from some guys having big months which I'll detail later, we swung a big trade:



Vladito had been sent to the Dodgers last winter as he entered his option year but LA is an uncharacteristic 44-57 and decided to fire sale. We were able to acquire him for Joel Diaz, who was once a top prospect and has been a perennial tease these last few years at Durham but might still carve out a decent stint in the majors (the Dodgers have him in long relief). Of course Vlad is not the Vlad he was earlier in the decade, missing all of 2028 with a broken bone in his elbow and was hitting 244/332/497 with 21 HR for LA this year. He'll become our everyday DH and we're not looking for him to carry us but to be an additional dangerous hitter in the lineup.

The day-to-day of July:



How things look around MLB:





Not much changed in July - the bats are pretty decent but the starting pitching continues to struggle behind the poor defense (although the D was a bit better this month). As hinted at in the June recap we pulled the trigger and purchased the contract of Cody Bellinger to play CF against righties to improve the D some but that kind of went out the window when we acquired Vlad and needed to keep Jeffry Rosa in the lineup.



A lot of big months for the bats, including the re-emergence of Saggese, who was so valuable in 2027 and so bad in 2028 that he was sent back to the minors. On the heels of his 4-homer game late in June Williams was starting to really hit so it's a shame he went down with his annual injury. And Bayron Lora will go into August still looking for his first hit since June; he'll probably have to get it before Tatis comes back and he's sent to Durham.



The big news on the staff is that Peguero has lost the closer's job after more blown saves this month and the acquisition of Vodnik, who had a league-leading 26 saves for the Angels before coming over. Pepiot was our ace this month, Taj is turning this around, and Teodo arrested his decline in July. Suddenly though the RH setup guys like Juenger and Perkins can't get anyone out. And George Kirby remains winless as a Ray as that's one deal that isn't paying dividends.



Crisp was our #1 pick and slots in as the team's #4 prospect. Still no idea why Owen Paino, Zion Rose and Brailer Guerrero aren't on this list since they're raking at Montgomery and are practically MLB-ready.

[Art Deco]

Record: 70-58 (14-13 for the month)
3rd place AL East, 9 1/2 behind Boston; 3rd wild card, 4 ahead of Minnesota

Another month of mediocrity as the division is truly a lost cause now and while they're 1/2 game behind Baltimore for the second wild card, they're probably better off finishing third and going on the road to play the now-72-57 White Sox than top wild card Houston who's 75-53. The pitching was poor this month and while the bats had good numbers for the month, they had a tendency to either score 9-10 or 2-3 runs. The game-by-game breakdown:



There was a 6-game win streak in there which shows how poorly they played the rest of the month. At least there were no new injuries this month, although reliever Juan Nunez re-injured himself on his rehab assignment and is now likely done for the season.



Elly is tied with Bryce Harper for the MLB homer lead, comfortably leads in AL WAR over teammate Tatis, and joined the 30-30 club.



As you can see the offense has been just fine; the 4.44 team ERA is probably the worst I've have for any Rays team in any of my Rays saves. A lot of it remains the bad defense, but the staff also walks way too many guys and it's tough when we don't at least have McClanahan to give us a strong outing every fifth day. Not much to do about now; just going to have to hope to outscore the opposition.



Obvious here the offense was very productive in August. Vlad has turned a good hitting team into a great hitting team and our 3-4-5 of Elly, Vlad and Tatis is the envy of the league. Rule 5 rookie Luis Almeyda was amazingly productive filling in for the injured Carson Williams; although the BA was low, 7 HR and 24 RBI (on 21 hits!) will play any time. Williams went on rehab at the end of the month and was added to the roster September 1. And while we figured Ethan Holliday would hit - and the rookie has - he's also played great defense with a +3.9 ZR rating at 2B.



Now the ugly. I will start here with one positive development: when Jose Ramirez went on the IL and had to miss a couple starts, rookie Garrett Lambert (acquired in the Quelch/Vodnik trade) took his place and was brilliant in 2 of 3 starts although he was hit hard in the other. Lambert's going to come back up in September and take the spot of George Kirby, who has been an unmitigated disaster since being acquired mid-season. We knew Kirby might struggle a bit with his 50 stuff and our bad D behind him, but figured his 70 control would offset some of that. Instead he's been wild with us including the 10 walks in 23 IP this month, a recipe for disaster. Ramirez pitched well in his starts before and after coming back, but that's about all the good news concerning the rotation. And some bad relief outings from new pickups Vodnik and Lopez cost us a couple of games.

Not going to post the prospect list as it's nothing new from last month and nobody's going to provide imminent help. So now it's all about holding on to that wild card spot and realistically hoping we can thread the needle to finish third.

[Art Deco]

Final Regular Season Record: 89-73 (19-15 for the month+)
2nd place AL East, 8 behind Boston; 2nd wild card

The good news: They made the playoffs.

The bad news: They're starting the playoffs on the road at 94-win Houston in the wild card series and they're going to have to do without Jackson Chourio (strained back, should return in the ALDS if they make it) and this guy:



Elly De La Cruz broke his thumb after being hit by a pitch during the final week of the season and his MVP-level 2029 is over. Thomas Saggese and Jeffry Rosa are capable backups, but they ain't the originals. In other injury news, Rule 5 guy and backup SS Luis Almeyda fractured his thumb as well as is done for the year. At least we got Tetsuhisha Hirata back to help on the MI after he missed most of the year with his own broken hand and complications from the surgery on it. Bottom line though is that it's going to be a tall order to take 2 of 3 in Houston to move on.






Had he not missed a month of the season Tatis probably would have overtaken Elly in the WAR race; they'll both be front-runners for AL MVP. Meanwhile over in the NL Milwaukee and Colorado were the division winners with wild cards going to Pittsburgh, Washington and Arizona. The playoff tree:





I will say this team was consistent over the season, always winning a few more than it lost and never really going on a prolonged hot or cold streak. The offense was great (with Chourio and Elly of course) and while the pitching looked mediocre it was dragged down as usual by the defense (or lack thereof).



And behold that offense, led of course by Elly and Tatis, it hit another level when rookie Ethan Holliday took over at 2B and then went nova when Vlad Jr. was added as he drove in a whopping 65 runs in 67 games as a Ray. One interesting name at the bottom is Ozzie Albies, the veteran 2B who was signed to a minor league deal mid-season and crushed the ball at Durham (24 HR and 65 RBI in 73 games) before getting called up in the final week when Elly was hurt.



The starters outside of Santana and Kirby weren't as bad as their ERAs would indicate (except for Pepiot, behind whom fine defense was played) as their BABIPs against tell the story. The bullpen was very inconsistent with key contributors like Peguero and Juenger having terrible seasons and new closer Vodnik wasn't a lockdown guy by any means. I fear for this staff in the upcoming series at Minute Maid Park.



Not exactly an inspiring farm system with 3 of the top 4 prospects about 5-6 years away in the international complex. This doesn't mean the farm is barren, though - we had 3 guys at AA Montgomery who were high draft picks or big international signings, had great seasons and appear to be MLB ready from their ratings yet OOTP ranks them 37 and below in the system:



I'm referring of course to Paino, Rose and Guerrero, all of whom raked at Montgomery. Rose will likely play alongside Patrick Bailey at C for us next year, and while Elly and Holliday have Paino blocked he may contribute as a backup. Guerrero might have a tougher time with all our OF depth.

Next up: The playoffs, which hopefully won't be short-lived.