The 2025 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



Game 4:



Wow, a 4-game sweep of the high-flying (but now slumping) Orioles as the Rays have not only gone a long way toward cementing WC2 but they only trail the Yankees by 1 1/2 games for WC1 and opening the postseason at home. They've ascended to #1 in the power rankings (for what that's worth) and were quite stingy in the sweep, allowing Baltimore only five runs total in the four games.



Players of the Week:

AL: Julio Rodriguez (SEA), 11-24, 3 HR, 9 RBI
NL: Shohei Ohtani (LA), 10-23, 3 HR, 9 RBI

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



Chandler Simpson was recalled in September roster expansion; the speedster will be given a shot in CF against righties.

Another successful series for the Rays who saw their win streak snapped but still took two of three from the Mets and are now only 1/2 game behind the Yankees for the first wild card. It would be much better to play them at the Trop than at Yankee Stadium.

Next up: Minnesota comes to the Trop for 4 games.

Players of the Month (August):

AL Batter: Julio Rodriguez (SEA), .366-11-26
NL Batter: Jackson Chourio (MIL), .366-5-23
AL Pitcher: Garrett Whitlock (BOS), 3-0, 0.00, 4 SV, 14 K in 12 IP
NL Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI), 4-0, 1.04, 42 K in 34.2 IP (and only 1 BB!)
AL Rookie: Alan Roden (TOR), .328-2-8
NL Rookie: Cam Collier (CIN), .282-10-24

MLB News: Yes, he's hurt again. Houston's Yordan Alvarez is done for the year with a fractured tibia.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



Game 4:



The Rays got a split of the 4-game series in Minnesota but it could have been more had they not blown a 5-0 lead in the first game. As it is with the Yankees sweeping Pittsburgh the Rays now trail New York by 2 games for WC1.



Players of the Week:

AL: Aaron Judge (NY), 10-19, 1 HR, 4 RBI
NL: Cam Collier (CIN), 11-26, 6 HR, 11 RBI

MLB News: A big blow to NL East-leading Atlanta as their superstar OF Ronald Acuna Jr. strained a hamstring and will be out six weeks, meaning he'll at least miss the NLDS.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



The Rays were sweepers in Seattle as they moved into a tie for WC1 with the Yankees. It was quite an accomplishment as this ballpark is a tough place to play (and score) and the staff held the Mariners to only three runs over the three games. And with another brilliant performance from McClanahan has me wondering if he can win the Cy Young despite missing half the season. His 3.7 pitcher WAR is 1.0 behind AL leader George Kirby and he's now 10-0, 1.59.

Next up: A huge 3-game series at the Trop against those same Yankees.

MLB News: Dodger phenom Roki Sasaki tore his UCL and will undergo Tommy John surgery, putting him out for the 2027 season as well. And Houston's Jose Altuve banged out his 2500th career hit.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



In an epic late-season series between teams tied for WC1 going in, the Rays used late-game magic in the finale to take two out of three and move into sole possession of the first wild card. In fact with Baltimore being swept this weekend the Rays are withing 4 1/2 of the Orioles, just saying (only 19 games left though). After a bullpen meltdown in extras cost them the opener the Rays bounced back with a brilliant performance from Drew Rasmussen, who no-hit the New Yorkers through 7 innings before giving up a leadoff single in the 8th. And then came Sunday's game which saw the Rays down 4-1 going into the bottom of the 8th before a pair of runs in both the 8th and 9th innings pulled out a thrilling win.



Players of the Week:

AL: Nolan Schanuel (LA), 14-25, 2 HR, 6 RBI
NL: Juan Soto (NY), 11-23, 3 HR, 5 RBI

MLB News: Texas may be running away with the AL West but they won't have Nathan Eovaldi for the playoffs as the starter tore his UCL and will miss most of 2027 as well.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



The Rays' September to remember continued with a sweep of the hapless Royals at Tropicana Field. They picked up a game on New York and lead them by 2 games for WC1 and are now within 3 1/2 of the first-place Orioles. And that's who they'll play next as they go to Baltimore for 3 games. Given how late in the season we are they'll almost need to sweep to have a realistic shot at the division.

MLB News: The Dodgers are 4 1/2 up in the NL West and a lock for the playoffs but they'll have to play the rest of the way without two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who is suffering from a shoulder impingement and is done for the season.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



Whatever faint hopes the Rays had of winning the division are all but gone after dropping this series to Baltimore and falling 4 1/2 games behind the Orioles. And at the same time the Yankees were sweeping Toronto to move back into a tie with Tampa Bay for WC1. The good news in that department is that the Rays won the season series from New York 8-5 so the Yankees will have to move ahead outright to gain home field advantage. Next up for Tampa Bay is a visit to Detroit for 3 games.

Players of the Week:

AL: Zach Neto (LA), 9-22, 3 HR, 6 RBI
NL: Tommy Edman (LA), 9-18, 1 HR, 4 RBI

MLB News: Yankee slugger Aaron Judge hit career homer #400.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Game 2:



Game 3:



The Rays continue to play well, taking 2 of 3 in Motown and are a game ahead of the Yankees for WC1 with 10 games left to play. Shane McClanahan continues to be incredible, now 12-0, 1.48 in 16 starts covering 97 innings and he's earned a whopping 4.4 WAR which is now 3rd in the AL and he trails leader Kumar Rocker by only 0.3. Can a guy make 18-19 starts, pitch barely over 100 innings and win the Cy Young? We'll find out.

Next up we head to Toronto for a 4-game set which will close out the road portion of our schedule.

[Art Deco]

Game 1:



Well it was a nice win but Brandon Lowe is hurt again, this time suffering an intercostal strain. Thankfully it's not too serious but it will end his regular season; however, he should be OK for the wild card playoff round. To take his spot, Brayden Taylor is once again summoned from Durham.

Game 2:



Game 3:



Game 4:



A strange, feast-or-famine series for the Rays who won two games scoring a total of 27 runs and lost the other two scoring a grand total of 1. They remain a game ahead of the Yankees for WC1 and hold the tiebreaker so it's an effective 2-game lead. Sunday's finale win also officially clinched a playoff spot for Tampa Bay, an amazing turnaround after a mid-season fire sale was initially undertaken only to reverse course when the team got hot, and they've stayed hot throughout the second half of the season. Baltimore also officially clinched the division so the Rays will be playing the Yankees in the wild card round, the only question is will be at the Trop or in the Bronx.

Next week: After getting Monday off the Rays will host Minnesota and Toronto for 3 games each to close out the regular season.

Standings going into the final week:



Not shown here are the extent of the wild card races. In the AL Cleveland is 2 games up on Boston while in the NL the Giants are 2 up on Miami (and 4 on Arizona).

Players of the Week:

AL: Luke Raley (TOR), 10-22, 4 HR, 7 RBI
NL: Jordan Walker (STL), 11-28, 3 HR, 9 RBI

[Art Deco]

I always post the box scores in the order the games were played but since the second game was quite notable, I'm going to post it first so it doesn't get lost in the middle:



Former Twin Joe Ryan pitches the second no-hitter in Rays history after Matt Garza (another former Twin) hurled the first back in 2010. And Ryan had to do while protecting a one-run lead as that was all his teammates could manage. He just missed a Maddux as well and might have had one if not for a late Carson Williams error. Ryan has proved an inspired deadline addition as he's gone 9-1, 2.15 with the Rays, shades of 1987 Doyle Alexander with Detroit and 1998 Randy Johnson with Houston.

Back to Game 1:



Game 3:



The good news is that with the Rays taking a pair in this series and the Yankees being swept by Baltimore, Tampa Bay has clinched WC1 and home field for the wild card round as they lead New York by 3 games with 3 left and hold the season series tiebreaker. In fact the entire AL playoff field is now set as Boston continued to slump and was swept, clinching the third wild card for Cleveland. The Guardians are only two games behind Detroit and have an outside chance of taking the division; these two teams will play each other in the other wild card series and now it's just a question of who hosts.

Over in the NL the Cardinals are on a remarkable 15-game win streak and have surged to WC 1 in the NL and trail the Cubs by two games for the division. San Francisco and Philly are tied for WC2 and lead Miami by 2 games.

Players of the Month (September):

AL Batter: Colt Keith (DET), .357-6-19
NL Batter: Noelvi Marte (CIN), .349-6-16
AL Pitcher: This guy:



It's funny to see Ryan's full-season numbers in light of what he's done with the Rays and that's because he was 0-10, 4.65 for the Twins although he was the victim of a high BABIP and had earned 1.5 WAR (his shorter Rays tenure has been good for 2.5).

NL Pitcher: Ryan Helsley (STL), 2-0, 0.00, 10 SV, 25 K in 15 IP
AL Rookie: Andrew Morris (MIN), 3-0, 2.60, 20 K in 27.2 IP
NL Rookie: Josh Ekness (MIA), 0-0, 0.00, 10 SV, 21 K in 12.2 IP

MLB News: The Dodgers will have to go without former Rays reliever Jose Alvarado for the rest of the season and the postseason thanks to shoulder inflammation.

[Art Deco]

Transaction: Shane Baz, sent down in July, is back up for a spot start since we want to rest our top starters for the wild card series. Nate Lavender goes to Durham but he'll be back on the playoff roster.

Game 1:



Game 2:



Transaction: Baz goes back to Durham and we call up another spot starter, Mason Englert, to pitch the final game.

Game 3:



We close the regular season on a winning note and prepare to take on the Yankees in the best-of-3 wild card series at The Trop. It'll be McClanahan/Ryan/Rasmussen as the projected starters. Ryan ended up winning the AL ERA crown.

MLB News: Cleveland trailed Detroit by 2 games going into the final weekend for the AL Central lead, and the Guardians swept their series while the Tigers were swept in theirs, meaning Cleveland gets to host the other AL wild card matchup between these two teams. In the NL Miami won its final 9 games (they were the ones who swept Detroit) to beat out the Phillies, who lost their last 6, to take the final NL Wild Card.


Full stats/standings post to follow. No players of the week this week as OOTP never awards them for the final week of the season.

[Art Deco]

As you can see our reward should we get by the Yankees in the Wild Card Round is a date with Baltimore, the league's best team with 101 wins.



Run prevention got it done for us as the pitching was outstanding and the defense was pretty good, as the offense was largely mediocre overall. Going 52-27 from July to September turned a fire sale into a playoff spot.



Some nice seasons from Duran, Caminero and the Lowes, with Williams and Baldwin nearly earning 3 WAR mainly off their defensive prowess. Simpson was impressive in September and 0.7 WAR in 25 games translates to about 4.5 over a full season. He took over as the CF against RHP and gave the team a boost which will hopefully continue through the playoffs.



McClanahan has put up two incredible partial seasons over 2025 and 2026; add them together and he's gone 20-1 (not a typo) in 28 starts with 187 whiffs in 168.2 IP and a 1.81 ERA, good for 5.8 WAR total. Fortunately he's healthy for the playoffs. He and Ryan (after coming over from Minnesota) really keyed our stretch run. After that it's been a lot of mix and match as you can see from all the pitchers used. Closer Fairbanks is almost ready to come back from the hamstring strain that kept him out of the second half and is rehabbing at Durham, he'll probably be activated should we make the ALDS.



Decent prospect depth, and Isaac and Taylor should be a big part of next year's team with Yandy and B.Lowe moving on to free agency. Avant is truly intriguing but has yet to throw a professional pitch yet. Most of these ETAs seem incredibly aggressive as I can't see Avant on the team next year unless something incredible happens.

[Art Deco]

A bullpen meltdown...



It was all there for the Rays - they came back from 2-0 down in the 7th to take a 3-2 lead on Jonathan Aranda's RBI single and just needed to shut down the Yankees for two innings. But it wasn't to be as Brock Stewart, Garrett Cleavinger and Edwin Uceta were simply brutal over the final two innings and New York scored 5 times in the final two frames to take a 7-3 win and put Tampa Bay on the brink of elimination. Shane McClanahan made one bad pitch - a 2-run homer by Jazz Chisholm Jr - but was otherwise dominant with 12 strikeouts over 5 innings, all for naught. Joe Ryan will now go tomorrow with the season on the line.

Late drama in the other ALWC game as well with David Fry's 2-run jack in the bottom of the 10th giving Cleveland a leg up:

[Art Deco]

Over before it began...



The Rays' defense of their surprise 2025 championship is over almost as soon as it began as the Yankees made quick work of them in the wild card round with a two-game sweep. In the end overtaking them for home field didn't matter (especially with how many Yankee fans typically invade Tropicana Field) as Joe Ryan had a nightmarish 5th inning that culminated in 5 Yankee runs and him leaving the game with a sore shoulder which would have kept him out of the rest of the playoffs had Tampa Bay advanced. The offense wasn't any help either, largely dominated by the Yankees' Clarke Schmidt, and New York now advances to face Baltimore in the ALDS while the Rays have a long winter ahead.

The other ALWC was also a sweep:



Cleveland advances to face Texas in the other ALDS.

With the Rays now eliminated I'll have a separate post to summarize the NL Wild Card round and one for each playoff round thereafter.

[Art Deco]

St. Louis will play Atlanta and the Cubs will face the Dodgers in the NLDS.

[Art Deco]

AL:



After knocking off the Rays the Yankees proceeded to upset the 101-win Orioles in 5 games.



The Rangers won in a tidy four games, but the one game Cleveland won will be forever memorable because of this:



Cease's gem was only the third complete-game no-hitter in MLB postseason history after Don Larsen and Roy Halladay.

NL:





The Dodgers came back from 0-2 down in the series to prevail, so we'll have New York vs Texas and Atlanta vs LA in the final four.

[Art Deco]

The Yankees' surprise run continues as they were WC2 and now find themselves in the World Series, coming back to take four straight against Texas after being blown out in the first two games of the series.




It was quite the series and quite the Game 7 as Atlanta walked it off in the bottom of the 9th to win the game and advance to face the Yankees in a rematch of the 1996 and 1999 World Series.

[Art Deco]

Congratulations to Atlanta, winning an epic World Series which saw them come back from 3-1 down and win Game 7 on a walk-off Sean Murphy single in the bottom of the 10th in a battle that featured ten total homers.

[Art Deco]

Well we couldn't quite replicate our surprise 2025 World Series win but 2026 was still a wild ride with the team playing so poorly by midseason that we fire-saled off Yandy Diaz and were thisclose to dealing Brandon Lowe, then the team suddenly got incredibly hot and climbed back into the race. We reacquired Yandy, kept Lowe and finished as WC1 only to the swept in two games by the eventual AL champion Yankees.

So after all that we're back to a partial rebuild as Yandy and B.Lowe are free agents as is former closer Pete Fairbanks and backup catcher Jonah Heim. The starting rotation returns intact although we're going to say goodbye to Bailey Ober, who isn't going to be worth the $8M he's going to command in arbitration coming off a 1-WAR season. Maybe to some other clubs but not to our penny-pinched budget. Speaking of which we have been given a little more money to play with ($140M) and will have some money to spend this winter.

Others likely to be non-tendered are reliever Anthony Bender (due $3.4M), Dylan Lee ($2.6M), C Matt Thaiss ($2.6M) and probably Davis Schneider ($2.6M, more on that in the next post as I've already made some moves which I'll get into then).

To fill the Yandy and Lowe-sized holes we're going to turn to our farm system with Xavier Isaac and Brayden Taylor taking over at DH and 2B respectively. Both are lefty swingers who might need platoon partners so we're going to be mindful of that but it's time to these guys to step forward as they well-rated even though both struggled in limited big-league action last season. To take Ober's place in the rotation we have Taj Bradley coming back who missed all of 2026 with Tommy John surgery, hopefully he'll be back in good form but a starting pitcher is one thing we might want to try and acquire this winter.

Also I'd like to make an upgrade or two to the bullpen where Brock Stewart isn't really the ideal closer and we need to find a catcher to caddy with Drake Baldwin, preferably a right-handed hitting one.

So to sum up in tl;dr fashion, our offseason goals are:

1) add a starting pitcher
2) add a late-inning power arm
3) find a RH-hitting backup catcher
4) add a versatile RH bat to backup/platoon with Isaac/Taylor

[Art Deco]

Well we made a slew of trades, shedding guys we didn't want to pay in arbitration and filling some holes:









Morel has been a major disappointment since coming over in 2024 for Isaac Paredes, Caballero is getting too pricey for a utility infielder, and Pepiot and Baz, once promising pieces of the starting rotation, saw their effectiveness drop off big-time in the last year or so with Pepiot all the way down in AA and Baz in Durham in last year's second half. And in return we got some useful players. Matthews will take Caballero's spot as the backup IF and platoon with Brayden Taylor at 2B, Susac will become the backup (and vs LHP) catcher, and Durbin will take the super-utility role that Davis Schneider had as we're going to non-tender him and save about $1.5M. The one guy who isn't slated to be on the OD roster is Long, a 1B prospect who bats righty and hit 327/397/583 at AAA Iowa last year with 14 homers in 55 games. He could be a possible platoon mate for Xavier Isaac but there's only so many positions we can platoon at so I don't see him up until mid-season sometime at the earliest.

None of these are big needle-movers but they do make us younger and cheaper and fill in a hole or two.

Notable retirements: Max Scherzer, J.D. Martinez, DJ LeMahieu, Justin Turner, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Anthony Rizzo.

Awards season:

Gold Glove: Our Jonathan Aranda took the AL 1B nod, quite a turnaround for a player who was all-bat coming out of the minors.

Reliever of the Year: In this parallel universe Emmanuel Clase laid off the bets (or didn't get caught) and won the AL award after a 40-save, 2.28 ERA, 2.3-WAR season. Somehow our Gabe Speier finished fifth. In the NL Philly's Orion Kerkering was the clear winner thanks to a 44-save, 1.67 ERA campaign.

Silver Slugger: We had two winners: Brandon Lowe at 2B and Junior Caminero at 3B.

Rookie of the Year: In this day and age of unending logins it's fitting that The Password, Boston's Jhostynxon Garcia, won the AL award after a .270-19-71 year taking all but the one first-place homer vote I gave to Carson Williams, who ended up fourth. The top NL freshman was Cincinnati's Cam Collier who exploded for a .274-38-103 year. He too took 29 of 30 first-place nods.

Cy Young: He did it!



Although it's not a prerequisite to qualify for the ERA crown to win the Cy Young as several relievers have won, it's pretty unprecedented for a starter but Mac was so dominant over his 17 starts and 103 IP that he won the award going away with rotation mate Ryan taking third.

The NL award went to Hunter Greene of Cincinnati, who won a fragmented three-way vote with Kevin Gausman (SF) and Ryan Weathers (MIA). Greene had 15 first-place votes and 144 points, Gausman 8/129 and Weathers 7/107. Greene was 13-8, 3.19 with 207 whiffs in 192 IP.

MVP: The AL voting was another 3-player race with Detroit's Colt Keith coming out on top ahead of Gunnar Henderson and Julio Rodriguez. The first-place/total points voting was Keith 13/330, Henderson 7/293 and J-Rod 10/286. Keith hit .316-37-114 and earned 6.7 WAR, well behind J-Rod's 8.1 and also behind Henderson's 6.9. The NL race was much more clear-cut as Atlanta's Michael Harris II was a unanimous (and back-to-back) winner thanks to a .348-36-116, 8.2-WAR season.

November 28: We lost both our arbitration cases with Joe Ryan taking us to the cleaners for $3M than the $13M we offered and Josh Lowe getting $6.1M instead of $5.5M. Now that that's set, we have a payroll of $94M with the option to go as high as $140M, so that's up to $46M to play with.

December 2: Added IF Gregory Barrios, C Dominic Keegan, 1B Jonathan Long, OF Aidan Smith and P Brody Hopkins to the 40-man roster.

Time to protect some of our decent prospects from the Rule 5 Draft. Not sure if any of these guys are going to contribute much next season but you never know.

December 6: Freddie Freeman is staying with the Dodgers, who extended for 2/50.

December 11: That $46M was burning a hole in my pocket so we spent about $15M of it in a couple of deals to beef up the rotation and bullpen:





Now that's more like it. We've added one of the best closers in the league (and yet another former Twin for the staff joining Ryan and Stewart - not to mention the recently-departed Ober) and Stewart will go back to doing what he did in Minnesota: setting up Duran. The Twins are picking up half his salary and we sent them Kmatz, who could pass as a fifth starter but wasn't a prospect while Lopez truly isn't one.

And then we hooked up with the Mets to get Senga, who are also paying 50% of his salary. Senga's an excellent starter and gives us a fearsome four with McClanahan, Rasmussen and Ryan. Now we don't have all our eggs in the "does Bradley come back effectively from TJS?" basket as he becomes the fifth starter. Senga's only knock is his fragility; he missed about half the year last season but was excellent when healthy: a 2.63 ERA with 110 whiffs in 101 IP and has a career 3.39 ERA in 78 starts. The main cost was Lesko, who has a million dollar arm but very iffy control. Schiefer was a 2-star "make it work" guy.

Duran is a rental as he's a free agent at year's end. Senga was one more (very expensive) arb year left so hopefully we can get something for him next winter. And we still have about $25M to spend in case we see a bat worth adding.

December 15: Signed Japanese IF Yasuhiro Saito to a minor league contract.

The pro IFA market this year was very weak, but we did sign Saito who profiles as a utility infielder with decent (55) contact but litter power or eye (40 each). His calling card is his glove as he plays a 60 SS and potentially a 65 3B and 70 2B. He'll be depth at Durham.

Meanwhile the first big free agent signing of the winter was SP Sonny Gray, who goes to the Mets on a 3/83 deal despite being 37. I imagine he'll take Senga's spot in the rotation.

December 17: A couple of notable short relievers found new homes with Carlos Estevez joining the Mets for 2/20 and the Rangers signing Bryan Abreu from cross-state rivals Houston for 2/19.

December 18: The Mets continue to collect relief pitchers, signing veteran closer Raisel Iglesias to another 2/19 deal. Iglesias will probably be out until May-June after nerve surgery.

December 19: Slugging OF Tyler O'Neill joined the Cubs for 6/92 after hitting 92 homers the last three seasons.

December 22: The Rule 5 Draft was a dull affair with only 12 players taken and nobody lost from our organization.