The Bucs Start Here - A Pirates Do-Over

[luckymann]

IP/Game Ratio (Minimum 5 Appearances)

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Boston Red Sox (92-62) v Pittsburgh Pirates (89-65)
Best-of-seven, Pirates with the home-field advantage.


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Some measure of vindication for us here after last year’s disappointment but, as I mentioned in the regular season wrap, our entry into the post-season was by no means the clean and clinical one I was hoping for. We showed just how tough we can be but also how prone our offence is to drying up completely, and how we go here will be all about which side of this split personality shines through.

To try remediate this issue, we are taking 16 position players and just 10 pitchers into the WS. Thomas gets first go at LF, but at the first sign of him not performing as required, Kiner or even Lemon will come in. I believe he is the right guy for us longer-term, but I just don’t know that I trust him completely yet, particularly when the heat is on. Law moves to the BP, where he’ll spend his career if I have my way – he is a liability, but as a Legacy we are stuck with him and best use him. Friend, while undeniably improved this year, needs to be better still to win me over. All the same, with Podres out he is our SP4 for this contest.

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking the Red Sox are greatly diminished by Williams’ absence. Sure, they’re a better group with him in it, but they are still incredibly potent without. Hodges, Jensen and Lopata can hit it a mile with great regularity, Campy is a threat off the bench and Ashburn is a weapon from the leadoff spot. If they do have a weakness it is their starting pitching, and how well we exploit this will, I believe, be the deciding factor here in this series featuring the league's two most successful franchises to this point.

It is nice to be back in this position. Not like it’s been forever – we won it all in 1950, if you remember – but it can sometimes feel that way. And this will only increase as the financial metrics continue to work against us with ever-increasing influence. So all I ask of the lads is that they make the most of this opportunity.

Hey, you got Connie Johnson on the team. Cool cool cool.

[Brad K]

Luckyman understands the reaction so let me explain as its unknown trivia to most. Johnson was one of those players in the 50s who got a chance but probably less than he deserved. I traded for him in my Pirates Moneyball save and after some time in the minors came up and he won two Cys.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Luckyman understands the reaction so let me explain as its unknown trivia to most. Johnson was one of those players in the 50s who got a chance but probably less than he deserved. I traded for him in my Pirates Moneyball save and after some time in the minors came up and he won two Cys.

He's been solid enough for us since coming over and has started strongly again this season, although I'm not seeing a CYA in his future I'm afraid. Hope I'm wrong!

Read on and you'll see we've also got your main man on board, but not sure for how long.

[Brad K]

Yea, I saw you had Frank Thomas. Connie Johnson was much more unexpected.

In my save Johnson got a great roll on player development

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Yea, I saw you had Frank Thomas. Connie Johnson was much more unexpected.

In my save Johnson got a great roll on player development

Do you use recalc as well?

[Brad K]

Three year recal, not weighted, development on, TCR 100. I assume that with development off players can't play much beyond their historical career. In my save Ken Hubbs played effectively until I think about 1980.

[Brad K]

Johnson had a great career for me. A shame it started so late.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Three year recal, not weighted, development on, TCR 100. I assume that with development off players can't play much beyond their historical career. In my save Ken Hubbs played effectively until I think about 1980.

Same settings for me but TCR slightly lower. It depends, pretty much luck of the draw. Some flame out quickly and others slowly. I had DiMaggio play five extra years at fairly high quality, Gehrig three, Ruth just two. Their age is the deciding factor. Lesser known guys who only get a cuppa can do better under dev alone than they did via recalc if their stats finish early enough, relievers in particular.

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

Johnson had a great career for me. A shame it started so late.

23-4 - ooh lala!!

[luckymann]

Could be far worse, but we lose Camilo Pascual to an oblique strain for six weeks or so. Glenn Hobbie gets the call up from AAA to make his MLB debut.

[Makonnen]

This is late, but LOL at the team lead in SB being ... SIX!

I assume this is you tweaking the mgr preferences. What do you use for the rest of the league?

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Makonnen

This is late, but LOL at the team lead in SB being ... SIX!

I assume this is you tweaking the mgr preferences. What do you use for the rest of the league?

It's more to do with the fact that we just have a really slow bunch of guys. Only Piersall and Smith had more than 10 SB IRL, and neither made it past 15. I have these guys' SB set at halfway, the rest at varying degrees lower.

Our team setting is one notch under halfway.



I'm surprised all of this leads to such low SB totals, and with our lack of power it is an unsustainable model, but one we are stuck with for now. At 51-29 I can't really complain about how things are panning out.

The league settings are actually fairly amenable to the running game. The leaders are in the low 2os roughly halfway through. The IRL leader was Mays with 38, so all is as it should be there.

[Brad K]

I'll have to check but I believe one season in Pirates Moneyball I had total team SBs under 10.

[luckymann]

For the 1950s, our SB / BR totals have been

1950: 16 / +23
1951: 13 / +22
1952: 22 / +29
1953: 9 / +14
1954: 12 / +24
1955: 12 / +21
1956: 16 / +21

A far cry from when we had Wild Bill Wright swiping 85 by himself for us in 1943... I'm happy to let 'em run, but only if they've got wheels. That rules out most of the current mob.

[luckymann]

Four of ours get a go this year.




Willie Mays adds another honour to his expanding list with a HR Derby win over Henry Aaron, while the NL blanks the AL 6-0 behind MVP Frank Robinson.

[Brad K]

Connie Johnson and Frank Thomas. Cool.

[luckymann]

This is the second time in the past three seasons Harvey has gone down for the count.

[luckymann]

In so many ways, this season has been almost a mirror image of the one that preceded it. Whereas our luck - that most ineffable of frenemies - deserted us wholesale in '56, this year it has been the staunchest of allies. As we enter August, our record in one-run games sits at 23-8; in extra-inning games, 11-3. Of our 37 wins in June and July (against 23 losses), a disproportionate number are close in nature, with many coming in the form of a walkoff. The Pascual injury is - please Lord, don't make me regret saying this - the only one we've had all year. Things, it is fair to say, have been falling our way.





That said, a strong argument can be made that we have created a lot of our own luck. Those metrics certainly show we've been playing well. Perhaps the most pleasing and indeed positive sign is that, of the 27 players currently on our active roster (Camilo Pascual is on rehab at AAA), only one has a negative WAR - rookie pitcher Glenn Hobbie. That is a surefire sign of a team effort.




What a mighty season we are getting from Frank Thomas: 312 BA / 149 OPS+ / 21 HR / 3.9 bWAR. Maz, Jim Piersall and Arriba are each doing their bit in supporting roles, while Dick Groat finally looks in recent weeks to be coming good.




Johnny Podres has been the rotation star, winning his first 12 decisions before dropping one, but as you can see once again this has been a communal effort. We'll let Patata take his time and bring him back in a fortnight or so. Hank Aguirre is having a truly remarkable rookie season, going 26 innings before giving up his first ER in the bigs, and Seth Morehead is continuing our strong lineage in the Stopper role. Check out that BP ERA and again the close and late win aberration becomes easier to comprehend.




Our biggest concern is that, despite all of the points I have raised, the Giants remain hot on our heels. Should we suffer some of the almost inevitable regression to the mean, they have the sort of team - lead by Mays - to pounce. It is down to just us and them. After much deliberation we stand pat as the Trade Deadline passes. We live or die this year with the guys we have.

Exactly the opposite scenario is playing out in the AL, with less than a dozen games from first to last and no club able to be ruled out just yet.


News, Leaders and Top 20s








Monthly Award Winners

June

American League

• Batter – Joe Cunningham (Orioles): 352 / 5 HR / 19 RBI
• Pitcher – Jim Bunning (Tigers): 6-0 / 1.51 / 42 K / 47.2 IP
• Rookie – Roger Maris (Athletics): 244 / 9 HR / 22 RBI

National League

• Batter – Ernie Banks (Cubs): 350 / 11 HR / 26 RBI
• Pitcher – Robin Roberts (Phillies): 6-1 / 1.78 / 19 K / 55.2 IP
• Rookie – Harry Anderson (Giants): 272 / 6 HR / 20 RBI

July

American League

• Batter – Mickey Mantle (Yankees): 429 / 6 HR / 17 RBI
• Pitcher – Frank Sullivan (Red Sox): 5-1 / 1.52 / 30 K / 53.1 IP
• Rookie – Roger Maris (Athletics): 293 / 11 HR / 27 RBI

National League

• Batter – Willie Mays (Giants): 337 / 11 HR / 26 RBI
• Pitcher – Johnny Antonelli (Giants): 5-1 / 0.95 / 32 K / 47.1 IP
• Rookie – Eddie Kasko (Cardinals): 412 / 1 HR / 14 RBI

Milestones and Observations of Note

• Little I can do to stop it other than putting no-trade clauses in like I do, but I always have mixed emotions when I see Legacy Players traded, as St. Louis does with Curt Flood to Detroit. It irks me almost as much that it often feels as if the Cards are deliberately self-sabotaging.
• While on the topic of the Tigers - they are looking good, with some excellent young arms and Flood a budding star to roam the OF next to Kaline and Virdon. Meanwhile, their ace Jim Bunning is currently leading all three Triple Crown stat cats.
• The Athletics make a charge, putting themselves in contention with 11 straight wins - but in the process lose pitcher Dave Hillman for the season to an elbow injury.

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[luckymann]

Most Plate Appearances without Starting a Game