The 2022 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

And it's Angels-Twins in the ALCS as at least a couple of former Rays are moving on with Chris Archer pitching great today and joining Tyler Glasnow for another playoff round. Can Mike Trout finally get his ring? Stay tuned.

[Art Deco]

And it'll be the Dodgers and the Cardinals in the NLCS as we move closer to a possible Freeway Series. Trea Turner was 5-5 today in a wild game that went LA's way.

Also there were a bunch of retirements from guys who hung on this year in AAA:



Some former Rays in there with Wilson Ramos, Stephen Vogt.

[Art Deco]

[Art Deco]

The ALCS opened with a matchup of former Rays as the Angels sent Tyler Glasnow to the mound against the Twins and Joe Ryan, and it was a third former Ray who factored into the decision as Ryan Yarbrough took the loss for LA. Meanwhile Will Smith's 3-run homer in the 9th off Kevin Ginkel, who was nearly unhittable this year (52 saves, 115 whiffs in 75 innings, only 3 HR allowed and 4.0 WAR - a ridiculous number for a reliever) got the Dodgers level in the NLCS.

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It was the full Shohei Ohtani experience today as he went 6 2/3 for the win and homered as well to get the Angels even.

But bad news for the Angels and Tyler Glasnow:



Health is a skill and Glasnow doesn't have it, another reason I'm glad I dealt him.

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Instead of a Freeway Series we may be in for a rematch of the 1987 World Series as the Twins got a 2-run Alex Kirilloff double and a Victor Caratini RBI single to pull out a dramatic walk-off win in the 9th to even the ALCS while the Cardinals and Dylan Carlson head back to St. Louis needing only one win to reach the World Series.

[Art Deco]

And we are that much closer to 1987 redux as the Twins took Game 5 behind former Ray Joe Ryan, who pitched well despite giving up homers to Trout and Ohtani.

Meanwhile, there was this:



Mears had his massive season after coming over in 2022 as part of the trade which sent Xavier Edwards back to the Padres and also brought Esteury Ruiz (who by the way did clear waivers) our way. He worked himself into the top 100 prospect list and has a shot at winning the RF job next season where his 65 power could come in handy.

[Art Deco]

Hopes of a Freeway Series remain alive as the Dodgers have forced a Game 7 in the NLCS.

[Art Deco]

First the NLCS decider:



Dylan Carlson almost single-handedly put the Cardinals in the World Series as not only did he have 4 homers prior to Game 7, his walk-off shot in the bottom of the 14th won it in the most dramatic of fashions:



So there won't be a Freeway Series, but not for lack of trying by the Angels as we're going the distance in the ALCS as well:

[Art Deco]

Tonight we're going to party like it's 1987:



It's Cardinals-Twins in the World Series, and if it goes like most of the rest of the playoffs has (as well as 1987), we're going 7.

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Rays fans got to live vicariously during this pitching duel for the ages in 44-degree November weather between Joe Ryan and Blake Snell, and Snell got his wish from 2020 granted when he wasn't pulled, but the result was the same as he lost a no-hitter in the 9th when Byron Buxton doubled in the winning run.

We do know now this won't be 1987 redux as a road team has actually won a game.

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All aboard the Twins train...

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Ah, nothing like a World Series outdoors in Minnesota in November, 29 degrees with a 10-MPH wind. But it felt great for the Cards as perhaps this time around the teams will play a World Series in which the road team wins all the games:

[Art Deco]

Well the home team finally won a game and now the 84-win Twins are one win away from beating the heavily favored Cardinals for the title. Considering how terrible he was with Tampa Bay, Rays fans always figured it would be a cold day in hell before Chris Mazza pitched a gem in the World Series, and that's what he did today in 22-degree (!) weather. (No way IRL a game would go on in that kind of cold, would it?)

[Art Deco]

They did it!



The Twins shocked the world by upsetting the Cardinals in 5 games to take their first World Series since 1991. It's not mentioned in the recap above but shockingly the World Series MVP went to Dylan Carlson even though his team lost in 5 games. He was 7 for 20 with 2 HR and 7 RBI in the 5 games and Carlson also amazingly turned out to be the MVP of the NLDS, NLCS and World Series, something I'm not sure has ever happened.

So at least the Rays lost to the eventual champions.

[Art Deco]

The big news as always going into the offseason is what the payroll is going to be, and Stu Sternberg has decided I can spend up to $120M. Here are our existing obligations (anyone not listed is making the minimum):



This payroll adds up to a projected $97.7M but it's going to be a lot less than this because I'm not keeping all these guys. Cronenworth (5.8), Raley (5.0), Beeks (4.2), Graveman (4.0), Mejia (2.8) and Anderson (1.7) won't be on the roster next year, so there's $23.5M gone right off the top. I will try to trade these guys and those I can't will be non-tendered. Considering I always want to keep a $10-15M buffer, that will still leave me $30-35M to play with.

Here's my outlook positionally:

C-Christian Vazquez is back with 3 more years on his contract left. He did a good job with the staff but was terrible at the plate, hoping for some positive regression there. Mejia is too expensive and not productive enough to be worth it as a backup, so I'll either go with Rene Pinto or a veteran who's available for peanuts in the spring (there always seem to be a few worthy backups like this each year).

1B-Andrew Vaughn was a bit of disappointment although he did get hot later in the year so he'll keep his spot. Curtis Mead is an alternative here.

2B-This is the big question mark in the lineup. Jake Cronenworth was terrible after coming over and I'm no mood to pay him $6M. We have Jeremiah Jackson who has some pop (55 power) and can play the position (65, with a 9.1 ZR in AA/AAA combined last year). I'll also see what's available on trade market here.

SS-Stay healthy, Wander.

3B-Alex Bregman had an MVP-caliber season (a nice 6.9 WAR) and is under contract for one more year, so let's do it again.

MI-Taylor Walls was great filling in for Wander the first time, not so much the second (and more extended) time. He's fine as a good glove guy as a backup who can draw walks and steal some bases, but he really can't hit.

CI-Curtis Mead had a decent rookie season and hopefully he can take a step up. He'll back up Vaughn at 1B and figure into the DH mix.

LF-Randy Arozarena had a sneaky-good season at 4.9 WAR last year so he's staying.

CF-Ditto for Josh Lowe, although hopefully his September fade isn't an omen for a 2024 downturn.

RF-This spot is open as Mitch Haniger goes free agent. Possibilities include Zach DeLoach (whom I'd probably prefer as our 4th OF), rookie Josh Mears, the Southern League MVP with massive power whom I detailed during the playoffs, the recently-claimed Josh Naylor, and old standby Heliot Ramos, who carried the team during April and May before cratering so badly he was sent to AAA and ended up injured.

DH-Also open with JD Martinez gone. Mead and some of the guys mentioned in the RF mix are possibilities and we'll see what bats are out there.

SP-The entire rotation of Baz-McClanahan-Patino-Rasmussen-Chirinos/Loaisiga returns and we have prospects Taj Bradley and John Swanda ready to step in, so we really have 8 starters at the moment. Good chance they're all with the club next year with Chirinos and/or Loaisiga ending up long relievers and Bradley and/or Swanda in short relief to apprentice for a year before joining the rotation in 2025.

Bullpen: The core group of Fairbanks-Feyereisen-Kittredge-Gau-Springs are all back and if I go with all 8 pitchers listed under starters there's my 13-man staff. I'd like another lefty in there somewhere and we still have Forrest Whitley (who could also start) so the 13 above aren't necessarily a complete lock.

Prospects: You want prospects? we got prospects:



13 in the top 100 and a 14th just missing. I'd say that's pretty good. Among these I already mentioned Swanda and Bradley should be on the staff in 2024, Jackson is a candidate for the 2B job and Mears has a shot at RF or DH. One guy I didn't mention who's probably MLB-ready is #104 guy Schmitt, who will probably be named International League MVP after an incredible .297-33-111 season at Durham with good D at the hot corner. Obviously Bregman is blocking him this year and he may have to repeat AAA as a result but he's penciled in as the 2025 starter. Otherwise the others are too far away with exception of Florence, who came out of nowhere last year as an MiLB free agent we signed last winter, developed a splitter while adding some velocity and became perhaps the top pitcher in the IL last season as he was 13-9, 3.35 with 203 Ks in 209 IP. He will likely be trade bait this offseason as he seems a real sell-high candidate.

We're also going to have a Rule 5 40-man crunch coming up so look for deals necessitated by that as well.

So it shapes up to be an interesting offseason, and I already have one blockbuster deal currently under discussion so stay tuned.

[Art Deco]

So time to clear out some of the guys we don't plan to keep before they get their pay bumps in arbitration, and here's the first of those deals:



Not thrilled about helping out a division rival, but they did make the best offer. Bello is a swingman who pitched well with Boston last year (3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 11 starts and 18 relief appearances over 96 innings). He'll be ticketed for Durham as depth. Decker is a B- prospect who profiles as a fourth outfielder, average-above average defense in the corners and a 250/350/450-25 double-20 homer bat. Tedosio is a package guy who has some pop and plays good corner OF D but is contact-challenged. Really the key was getting something for Mejia and Graveman, who are good players but surplus to our requirements.

Dump trade #2:



Yeah, yeah helping another rival as we trade with the team which knocked us out of the playoffs on their way to an improbable World Series title, but again best offer. The key player in the deal (aside from moving the salaries and opening the 40-man spots) is Diaz, a 3B who is rated 55 power/55 contact and 45 at the position. He's definitely behind Casey Schmitt on our depth charts, but looks like a useful corner IF type. Julien has power but not much contact at 1B, and aside from a great name Willie Joe Garry, Jr. doesn't have much to offer except for some good outfield D.

OK enough of the preliminaries - you're here for the good stuff. And it doesn't get much better than this:



Ladies and gentleman, Juan Soto is a Tampa Bay Ray. Inspired by the fact that the Rays dealt for him at the same time in my Pirates Rebuild, and of course all the trade talk surrounding him IRL, I decided to see what it would take to get perhaps the best offensive player in baseball in a Tampa Bay uniform. Now of course this is just as a rental since Soto is in his final arbitration year, but you never know about an extension (OK probably not). And while it wasn't a bargain the cost was quite manageable (despite what my AGM says, more about that in a bit). We're giving up the #63 prospect in baseball in Florence, whom I discussed in the previous post as someone I was willing to deal, a decent mid-200s prospect in Mercado who could be a 4th/5th finesse/control righty starter, and an established MLB 2B in Cronenworth whom I didn't want to bring back. So no cost at all to the roster as currently configured or projected and I have my RF, although Soto will likely play LF and Arozarena will shift to right. About my AGM: he loved the deal when I had it in a configuration with Shane McClanahan instead of Florence which from a win-now baseball perspective would have been much worse for us. Mac is set to make around $4M this year so we would have saved a few bucks, but c'mon.

Now just feast your eyes, and look at his numbers from the last couple of seasons:



I think I need a cigarette.

November 14: After getting Kendall Graveman from us the Red Sox continue to beef up their pen by acquiring closer Ryan Pressly from Houston.

November 17: Some big news - The Gold Gloves were handed out and Randy Arozarena won one for LF in the AL! Also we avoided arbitration with some key players, including signing Juan Soto for $22M this year. We'll now see what he wants for a real extension, but I know it will be in the neighborhood of $40M/year.

And we may have found our lefty reliever. With Beeks traded and Brooks Raley to be non-tendered, we were down to just Jeffrey Springs but now we've claimed Tanner Scott on waivers. He's rated 65 stuff/65 movement and 45 control and looks to be decent enough. Last year he walked 17 and fanned 62 in 46 IP with Milwaukee and had a 3.42 ERA.

November 18: More awards!



Congrats to Pete, who was very reliable except for a brief two-week or so stretch where he blew some saves.

November 19: The Silver Sluggers were handed out today and we had two winners, both of whom were in-season acquisitions. Alex Bregman won at 3B and did about 80% of his damage with us while JD Martinez took the nod at DH, doing about 30-40% of his damage with us. And you could say we had a third winner, as Juan Soto won in RF for the NL.

November 20: Texas 3B Josh Jung won the AL Rookie of the Year after a .288-17-64 season with Curtis Mead finishing 4th and Chris Gau 5th. In the NL the award went to Arizona's Nolan Gorman at .274-19-66.

November 22: Shane Bieber was the AL Cy Young winner, he went 19-6, 3.21 with 261 whiffs in 235 IP, beating out Gerrit Cole 20 first place votes to 10. It was Bieber's 2nd Cy after winning in the shortened 2020 season. Brandon Woodruff was the unanimous winner in the NL coming off a great 15-8, 2.47 year with 259 Ks in 222 IP.

November 23: Death, taxes and Mike Trout as AL MVP. The Angel CF won his 5th trophy and second straight, taking 28 of the 30 first-place votes after a .284-35-85-7.5 WAR season. Kyle Tucker took the other two first-place votes and finished 2nd, while our Alex Bregman showed 3rd. Down ballot JD Martinez finished 11th. In the NL the honors went unanimously to Fernando Tatis Jr. who had a season for the ages at .295-53-133 with a whopping 10.9 WAR. Our new boy Juan Soto was a unanimous 2nd after his 314/461/618 35-HR season.

December 1: Yonny Chirinos and Jonathan Loaisiga won their arbitration hearings and as a result we're a combined $1.8M poorer than anticipated. Our payroll now clocks in at $102M per the salary page or $97M per the main front office page. I'm not sure what is causing the discrepancy.

And Juan Soto wants a 9/390 extension, that's an AAV of $43.2M.

December 3: Boston remains active on the trade front, acquiring veteran starter Lance Lynn from Texas coming off a 7-13, 4.71 season.

December 9: First big non-Juan Soto trade of the offseason as the Dodgers sent slugging OF prospect Andy Pages and relief prospect Osvanni Gutierrez (both of whom I've acquired in other saves) to Oakland for SP Frankie Montas.

Also we have a Rays trade:



Lars Nootbaar became kind of a forgotten man in the scheme of things with the OF and 1B acquisitions we made and the prospects who moved ahead of him on our depth charts, so we were willing to risk trading with a division rival to pick up another lefty as we're short on them at the upper levels. Sears pitched well for the Yankees in relief last year and can also start (occasionally as he only has 40 stamina), putting up a 10/49 BB/K ratio in 41 innings with only 25 hits allowed (the catch was 8 HR given up). As a reliever he has 60 stuff and 60 control with 50 movement (potential 55). He'll likely start the year at Durham but could be one of the first guys called up when injuries strike.

December 10: The first big free agent signings took place today with the Mets inking Matt Chapman to a 7/173 deal and Yasmani Grandal going back to the White Sox for 3/70 after spending the last year and a half with the Mets. At the other end of the spectrum former Ray Phoenix Sanders signed a minor league deal with the Yankees.

December 12: The New York tabloids are having a field day as Mets icon Jacob deGrom signed with the crosstown rival Yankees on a 3/98 deal. We'll see how it goes since deGrom is notoriously injury-prone and is currently coming off bone chip surgery. The Yankees meanwhile beefed up their lineup both literally and figuratively by trading for Phillies "OF"/DH Kyle Schwarber, taking on his $20M/year contract for two more seasons and sending Philly a couple of minor leaguers.

December 13: Max Muncy is White-Sox bound for 5/74 and Astros legend Jose Altuve was dealt to the Dodgers for a couple of marginal prospects. Altuve has slipped in recent years and is coming off a 243/315/410 season. St. Louis also dealt for Washington CF Victor Robles.

December 16: Former Rays closer Taylor Rogers is on the move again, going from Arizona to Atlanta in exchange for OF Drew Waters.

December 17: Houston signed longtime St. Louis starter Jack Flaherty to a 6/109 pact, and another Cardinal found a new home as the Yankees improved their CF defense by signing Harrison Bader to a 4/85 deal. Houston also added to their rotation with Sonny Gray on a 4/78 contract. Also former Ray Colin Poche, who languished in our minors the last couple of years, somehow got a 3/12 deal from Atlanta. And speaking of former Rays relievers, Seattle shipped Diego Castillo to the Mets for a prospect.

December 18: We signed a couple of international free agents to minor league contracts. Hisamitsu Kusumoto is a lefty reliever from Japan with marginal stuff (45/50/50) but hey, he's a lefty and he was free. The wonderfully-named Fu-chi Chin is a 22-year-old Taiwanese outfielder with much more promise:



He plays excellent defense, has speed to burn, and if he can get that contact tool up closer to its potential he could be a useful player.

December 19: Eduardo Rodriguez, who opted out of his big deal with Detroit after a big 2023, signed another big deal with Philly for 6/114, while the Cardinals acquired starter Paul Blackburn from Oakland.

December 20: The White Sox dealt star SS Tim Anderson to the champion Twins for a pair of top-100 prospects in P Ricky DeLeon and OF Emmanuel Gutierrez. Anderson is a free agent after 2024. The other Chicago club also wheeled and dealed, sending SP Marcus Stroman to Cleveland for 5 prospects of varying quality as the Winter Meetings heat up.

December 21: The Dodgers, knowing we have a rookie penciled in to play 2B, offered us Rougned Odor for not much. Thanks but no thanks, don't want a guy who will hit .200 and give us occasional homers, I already lived through the Brandon Lowe experience last two seasons. San Diego dealt 2B Ha-seong Kim to the Reds for SP Tyler Mahle. Mahle is coming off a brutal 6-20, 6.88 season and is owed $16+M for each of the next two years while Kim also has a bad contract.

December 23: The Mets found their Yasmani Grandal replacement in the person of Omar Narvaez on a hefty 5/107 deal and a couple of former longtime Dodgers found new homes with Justin Turner off to Detroit for 3/38 and Kenley Jansen Arizona-bound for 2/16. The D-backs also added to their pen with veteran Chad Green on a 3/23 deal.

We put the egg nog down long enough to make another trade:



Because of the late end to the World Series the Rule 5 Draft is now on Boxing Day (the 26th) so here's a deal that was necessitated by that. I'm not going to have room for Austin Shenton on the 40-man, so we dealt him along with Nick Schnell (a personal favorite who panned out as a big leaguer in my previous 2 Rays saves but won't in this one) for Brooks Lee, a name familiar to baseball fans as he was a ballyhooed 1st round pick in 2022:



This profile screams "scrappy middle infielder" and Lee had a good 290/366/408 year with great defense for 4.4 WAR in High-A in his first full pro season. A couple of years ago we were awash in middle infielders with the likes of Vidal Brujan, Xavier Edwards and Greg Jones in the pipeline. But those guys are either gone (Brujan and Edwards were traded for power) or struggling (Jones, waived off the 40-man last summer), so we needed to beef up that part of our depth chart. I still have faith in Jeremiah Jackson but Lee gives us some cover.

December 23: Added Ps John Swanda, JJ Goss, Colby White and Sandy Gaston, 2B Jeremiah Jackson and OF Joshua Mears to the 40-man roster.

All but White (a decent reliever) are top-100 prospects and all were no-brainers.

December 24: Ryan Thompson, another reliever who was up with us for a bit and languished in our minors, signed a 2/2.6 deal with San Diego.

December 26: It's Rule 5 Draft time again. The draft pool features 3 top-100 2B prospects but we're not going to commit to keeping any of them on our roster for a full year and as I said I have faith in Jeremiah Jackson. Also I'm certain we're going to lose someone - our last "cut" for the 40-man was Heriberto Hernandez.

Well Texas took Austin Shenton as LA's AI failed to put him on their 40-man, which feels kind of cheap. The Phillies took former Rays IF Mike Brosseau.....aaaaand Washington took Heriberto, damn. Pittsburgh took one of those 2B prospects, Colorado's Yunior Severino while leaving their own (Maikol Escotto) exposed, and now they have both. The Pirates also took another interesting name, Simeon Woods Richardson, from Minnesota; Richardson was part of the big Jose Berrios trade with Toronto in 2021. In all eight players were taken with the Pirates grabbing three.

So Heriberto kind of turns out to be part of the Juan Soto deal in a strange way. I put odds at 50-50 they end up giving him back to us.

December 27: The Reds signed Jurickson Profar to a 4/53 deal.

December 28: After a disappointing 237/322/427 season with only 14 homers after signing a big free agent deal with the Yankees, Jose Abreu was shipped by New York to Arizona for starting pitching prospect Slade Cecconi, a familiar name to those who have followed my 20 and 21 Rays saves (especially the latter as he's currently on the 2029 staff).

December 29: The first of our rental free agents from last year signed with a new team as Mitch Haniger, who was very good for us (AL PotM in August) is going to hit even more homers in the high altitude of Colorado on a 3/39 deal.

December 30: Former Red Sox star Rafael Devers, who spent his walk year in Cincinnati, stays in the NL Central thanks to a 7/117 pact with the Cubs where he joins his former Yankee rival Aaron Judge.

[Art Deco]

Maybe only humorous to me, but since the real-life Rays controversially took high-school 1B Xavier Isaac with their first-round pick last week I was wondering where he ended up in this save. So I searched and found him - on our FCL team!

That's because I actually drafted him for the Rays in this save's 2022 draft (back in the real May of this year) in the 5th round. I had totally forgotten I did this and I would have been more excited had I remembered during the real draft last week. Apparently my FCL manager doesn't think much of him as he's only managed 5 at-bats over 2 seasons in the FCL. Maybe he'll turn out differently in real life (I sure hope so) but in the meantime my version of Rob Metzler says "Isaac's ceiling is a bench role".

Also the real-life Rays' sandwich 2nd/3rd round picks Ryan Cermak and Chandler Simpson apparently don't exist in this save.