The 2023 (and beyond) Tampa Bay Rays

[Art Deco]

Ugh...



After helping save the Rays in Game 2 the bullpen let them down in Game 3 as they looked to be cruising through 5 up 3-0 but Andrew Nardi faltered in relief of Jose Ramirez, who ran out of gas in the 6th, and then Victor Vodnik gave up a 2-out, 2-on double in the 10th to Tommy Troy to lose it. And the other hero of Game 2, Ethan Holliday, was 0-5 with 3 strikeouts after getting a standing ovation from the Tampa Bay crowd in his first at-bat. Emiliano Teodo, who came up big in Game 7 of the ALCS, will need to do so again tomorrow to keep the series from spiraling out of the Rays' reach.

[Art Deco]

Not looking good...



The story of this series (except for Game 2 of course) is that Milwaukee has gotten the big hit when they need it and the Rays haven't, which is why they're now trailing 3 games to 1 as the series' 4th straight one-run game went the Brewers' way. Jeffry Rosa's first postseason homer was a 3-run shot that put Tampa Bay up 3-2 but Emiliano Teodo served up a 2-run dinger to Trent Grisham and that was it for the scoring even though the Rays had several chances to tie or go ahead despite only managing 4 hits. So Ryan Pepiot will try to save the season tomorrow night and of course the Rays were in this situation in the ALCS and came back but it's asking a lot to do it twice.

[Art Deco]

Of course it ends this way...



Not sure there's ever been a World Series where every game was decided by 1 run but that's what we had here as it was Groundhog Day for the Rays, losing again by a single tally. They had a chance to tie in the 9th with men on 1st and 3rd and 1 out after Ethan Holliday beat out an infield single but Mason Auer struck out and Fernando Tatis Jr flied to left to end it. And as they have in every game the Rays took an early lead on a 2-run Tommy Saggese single in the 1st but that was all Corbin Burnes would give them until Bobby Marsh homered in the 8th on Burnes' absurd 138th pitch of the game (he'd throw 144, not sure what got into the AI). Dishonorable mention to former Brewer farmhand Jackson Chourio, who went 0-for-the-series in 20 at-bats and was dropped to 7th in the lineup today, the first time all season he hadn't appeared in his customary leadoff spot. So it's another year without a ring for the Rays in this save and they'll go back to the drawing board in 2030.

[Art Deco]

A tough World Series but we'll have to put that in the rearview mirror and get down to getting ready for a new decade of Rays baseball. Stu Sternberg has given us a payroll of $170M for 2030 and after we declined the $27M option for Shane McClanahan, who's coming off Tommy John surgery and doesn't look as good, we're still right at $170M in payroll commitments. So that necessitated a trade:



Taj was going into his final year of arbitration and was projected to make $18M, so given that he's been a 1.5-2 WAR pitcher over the last few years and is coming off a season with a 5.22 ERA it wasn't hard to part with him. And the return is actually pretty good, even if it gives us a surplus. Cody Schrier has a really nice profile:



He's coming off a 286/356/441 season and earned 1.2 WAR in 57 games as he missed about 2 months of the season with injuries (although he's rated "normal" for proneness) and played as a backup. He's also a great clubhouse presence and the players were thrilled to have him on board. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time but is only projected for $1.8M so now we have about $16M of cushion.

Otherwise we lose the following free agents: Vlad Jr., who was outstanding for us and played a big role in getting us to the Series; several bullpen pieces (Reynaldo Lopez, Jack Perkins, Hayden Juenger, Jovani Moran, Matt Canterino); and a couple of minor league vets who were marginal to us despite their big names (Ozzie Albies, Cody Bellinger). So this is how it shakes out position-by-position:

Catcher: Patrick Bailey is the incumbent coming off a disappointing season. This is his final year of team control and I'd like to bring along Zion Rose as his backup or job sharer. This likely means Blake Hunt, who is a fine receiver but can't hit a lick, moves on.

First Base: Bobby Marsh has yet to live up to the half-season he had with us in 2027 (when he was a 6.5-WAR guy for the full year) after coming over from the Dodgers, earning just 1.9 and 1.5 WAR each of the last two years with 29/97 and 23/80 HR/RBI seasons. He does draw walks (about 90/season) and we'll give him one more year.

Second Base: He was only up for the last 2/3 of the season and I haven't analyzed the competition but Ethan Holliday should be a Rookie of the Year candidate after hitting 303/363/423 and playing above-average defense (+4 ZR).

Shortstop: He's a wonderful player when he's in the lineup, but Carson Williams just can't seem to stay healthy, missing 30 games in 2028 and 50 games last year but prorated to a full season he's a consistent 4-WAR guy. We'll hope for better health this season.

Third Base: This is our last dance with Elly De La Cruz, who has to be the front-runner for AL MVP and should haul in $26-27M in his final year of arbitration (if not more).

Infield: We now have two very capable backups in Schrier and Tetsuhisa Hirata, which is important given Williams' injury-proneness although Hirata missed most of 2029 with injuries himself. Luis Almeyda, who was a seldom-used Rule 5 guy before being pressed into action when Williams got hurt and showed some impressive power, will likely get a full year at Durham as a result.

Left: Jackson Chourio did his usual 3-WAR thing although he had a miserable postseason.

Center: Mason Auer is the glue of the team, doing a little bit of everything and stealing tons of bases, and comes off his second straight 3.6-WAR season. He's a little miscast in center after playing Gold Glove D in right, but we'll live with that because of who our RF is.

Right: And that guy is of course Fernando Tatis Jr., who'll challenge Elly for MVP this year and might have been the front-runner if he didn't miss a month after hitting 296/371/600 with 33 HR and 100 RBI in 128 games.

Outfield: Backups include Jeffry Rosa, who has light-tower power and hit 45 HR between Durham and the Rays in 529 AB (including 17 with the big club) and Bayron Lora, who hit 10 HR for us in 143 AB albeit with a .203 average and went to Durham when Vlad came on board. Neither can really play center, and one of them could also get DH at-bats.

DH: With Vlad gone the front-runner for the position is Thomas Saggese, who hit 322/389/542 and 297/345/475 in 250-AB stints with us in 2027 and last year, and seems qualified for the position as well as being a decent IF backup.

Rookies: Aside from Rose, who's slated for a C slot, we have IF Owen Paino coming off a 296/373/496 season with 27 HR and AAA Montgomery, and his teammate Brailer Guerrero, who mashed at 299/372/534 with 35 HR. Paino is rated 50/50 contact/power at the MLB level while Guerrero is 55/55, although they may be Durham-bound with all the players ahead of them.

Rotation: We take some hits here with Taj gone and McClanahan not coming back but we do have a Pepiot/J.Ramirez/Teodo/Lambert likely 4. While none of them are aces, they're all fairly solid and that rotation along with Taj got us to a World Series. The 5th starter could either be failed trade pickup George Kirby or swingman Chang-Hyoek Kim, who surprisingly made the All-Star team last year as a long reliever. We still also have Waylin Santana around, who went from 20-2, 2.36 in 2027 to pitching out of the Durham bullpen, and swingman Santiago Suarez.

Bullpen: As alluded to earlier with the list of pending free agents, this is where the most offseason work is going to have to be done. We do return the backend guys Matthew Peguero and Victor Vodnik, but both of them had their ups and downs last year. Also returning are Juan Nunez, who only pitched in 3 games for us after being claimed from Oakland, and lefties Andrew Nardi and Matt Cronin. But after that it gets a bit dicey - hopefully Fernando Costume has regain his 27-28 form, and the Kim/Kirby 5th-starter loser will become the long man, but we definitely need 2-3 more quality arms. There are no compelling pitchers in the system apparently ready to step in.

So in the end the top-notch offense returns largely intact and the decent but not great rotation is back, but the bullpen is going to need a facelift.

[Art Deco]

Retirements of note: Lucas Giolito, Marcus Semien, Shane Bieber, Freddie Freeman, Byron Buxton, Max Fried, Christian Vazquez, Josh Hader,

Former Rays: Blake Snell, Christian Arroyo, Mike Brosseau, Garrett Cleavinger.

Awards Season:

Gold Glove: No Rays of course.

Reliever of the Year: Houston's Jonathan Sprinkle took the AL nod for the third straight season, saving 41 with a 2.57 ERA. Philly's Alex Vesia won in the NL thanks to 44 saves with a 1.68 ERA.

Silver Slugger: Elly (3B) and Tatis (RF) were expected AL winners.

Rookie of the Year: And there it is:



Colorado RF Joey Wika (.329-8-79) took the NL honors.

Cy Young: The Angels' Cristian Javier was a unanimous winner after a 17-9, 2.58, 4.8 WAR season. Our Ryan Pepiot finished 7th. Arizona's Dylan Ray won a fragmented NL voting, edging out Miami's Dari Brito 128-118 on points despite trailing him 12-9 in first-place votes. A pair of Milwaukee starters weren't that far behind at 93 and 92.

MVP: A little closer than I expected (and I thought Tatis would be 2nd):



Colorado 2B Jack Ruckert took the NL trophy, hitting. 378-23-125 and earning 8.1 WAR. Ruckert received 27 of 30 first-place votes with the other 3 going to Bryce Harper.

December 1: The Mets sent star catcher Francisco Alvarez to the Angels for a package of prospects while the Red Sox acquired oft-injured starter Julio Urias from Miami.

December 6: The Twins dealt their long-time 2B Royce Lewis to the Reds for a couple of prospects.

December 9: Veteran C Adley Rutschman signed with Atlanta on a 5/172 deal after spending 7 years with Baltimore.

December 10: So we made a trade and actually dealt from a position of weakness, further depleting the bullpen:



This was an AI-generated offer and as you can tell from AGM it was too good to pass up, even if it does weaken us. That's because Griggs is an excellent prospect (4.5 stars) with potential 60 contact/65 power, a 2nd-round pick of Boston last year. He'll probably end up a 1B though. Still now we need a lefty for the pen in addition to another couple of arms.

December 11: And there goes Vlad, signing a 5/127 deal with Atlanta (less than I thought, heck when I checked out what he wanted for an extension it was $57M/year!), who seem to be the big spenders this winter.

December 12: Speaking of big deals, the Mets inked Juan Soto to a 5/160 pact.

December 13: So let's start building up that bullpen.



Felipe is rated 60/75/50 and is coming off a season with 7 saves and a 2.62 ERA with the Reds, earning 1.1 WAR each of the last two seasons so definitely a useful arm. Canning had been in the Durham rotation the last three years and deserves to be someone's 5th starter but I wasn't going to roll the dice on him.

December 14: Star C Edgar Quero joined the Jays on a big 8/188 deal.

And let the deals continue:



Elvis has entered the building as we acquire one of the better relievers in the league. He's a rental for 2030 which is why the price wasn't too expensive - we part with Hunt, whom we were ready to move on from, Nesta, a good arm with lousy control, and Guscette, a catcher who can hit but can't catch - but we certainly couldn't afford someone similar to him on the free agent market. Now all we need is a lefty.

December 17: Such as Emmanuel Clase, who would have been great to have but just signed for 3/35 with Oakland.

December 22: Added C Zion Rose, OF Brailer Guerrero, P Mason Montgomery and OF/P Cam Caminiti to the 40-man roster. Rule 5 time, Rose should be on the big club this season, Guerrero is knocking on the door and the two-way Caminiti was our 2025 #1 pick. Montgomery meanwhile could be our lefty reliever if we don't acquire one.

December 23: The Rule 5 Draft came and went without any excitement, although a couple of one-time big-name sluggers were taken, Spencer Torkelson and Eloy Jimenez.

[Art Deco]

January 1: Signed Japanese OF Kimitada Nakayama to a minor league contract. One of the pro international free agents in the class, he has 60 MLB power with 40-45 ratings in the other offensive categories and is a 55/60 corner OF. In other words, a decent 4th OF with a chance to do a little more. He's a lefty hitter with the guys ahead of him on the depth chart (Rosa, Lora) both righties.

Also six years after it happened in real life, the Mariners dealt OF Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta. Better late than never.

January 2: Another of our free agents finds a new home as Jack Perkins joined Seattle for 3/41 which tells me they're going to use him as a starter, something I considered several times but never did.

January 3: The Mets sign OF Bryan Reynolds for 4/52.

January 9: The Hall of Fame voting is in:



Verlander was a first-year no-brainer and A-Rod finally gets in after the voters making him wait 9 years. C.C. ended up oh-so-close as did Yadi.

January 10: Two more longtime members of our bullpen signed new free agent deals with Hayden Juenger heading to Philly on a 1-year, $1.7M deal while Jovani Moran is off to the Angels for 1/1.3. Maybe I should have tried a little harder to re-sign these guys.

January 19: Camilo Doval, who closed for us back in 2027, is now a Cardinal for 3/21.

March 4: Still another of our free agents has a new uniform to wear as Shane McClanahan signed a one-year, $7.9M prove-it deal with Texas while he recovers for a torn UCL. He should be ready to pitch in the bigs around June after a rehab. Meanwhile former Ray Nathaniel Lowe joins Cleveland for $4.6M and Anthony Santander signs with Atlanta for $7.1M.

March 6: 39-year-old Anthony Rendon prolongs his MLB career with the Mets for $6M.

March 7: Who says you can't go home again? 35-year-old Matt Olson, who spent 8 years with Atlanta after his first 7 in Oakland, is an Athletic again for $5.3M as he looks to get HR #400 (he's 7 shy).

We made it through Spring Training injury-free!

[Art Deco]

The Opening Day roster:

C: Bailey, Z.Rose*
1B: Marsh
2B: E.Holliday
SS: C.Williams
3B: De La Cruz
IF: Schrier, Kinney*
LF: Chourio
CF: Auer
RF: Tatis
OF: Rosa
DH: Saggese

SP: Pepiot, J.Ramirez, Teodo, Lambert, Kirby
LR: Kim
MR: Felipe, Cronin, Costume, J.Nunez, Vodnik
SU: Cotto, Peguero
CL: E.Alvarado

*Rookies. Cooper Kinney was out of options so he made the team, he can also catch in a pinch, while Zion Rose will get some run at catcher.

The pessimistic preseason predictions:




I think we'll do better than .500, especially if Opening Day is any indication:



A fun game which saw the Rays blast three homers, including a 2-run Elly shot in a 3-run third kept alive by a two-out Arizona error. Pepiot's injury was minor, a mild forearm strain which would normally push his next start back a day but with off days it won't even be noticed.

[Art Deco]

Record: 13-11
2nd place AL East, 1/2 behind Baltimore, 1st wild card

A typical ~.500 start for this team in this save. One of these seasons they'll surprise me by starting 18-7 or 9-16 but not this one. We made it through the month with one injury of note but it was a serious one - lefty reliever Matt Cronin tore his UCL and is done for the year. In a bit of twist our perceived weak spot was our strongest as the starting pitching was excellent only for the bullpen to falter and the bats to be a mixed bag which is why it all added up to 13-11.



A stop-start month with a 4-game win streak and a 3-game losing streak the extremes. How things looked around MLB this first month:



Notice the AL ERA leaders, all Rays. Meanwhile the White Sox and Phillies are off to insane starts but a lot of teams hovering around the .500 mark.



The offense is off to its usual slumbering start but with the bullpen blowing games at times this year I was actually surprised to see us one game better than our Pythag record.



A real mixed bag here. Elly and Tatis are off to their usual productive starts with the latter an XBH machine but they've also both struck out an incredible number of times, often killing the rallies they're not creating. Chourio has bounced back nicely from his brutal postseason and Carson Williams has been productive but that's about it for the good news. Patrick Bailey is a black hole at the plate in his walk year and he's been yielding some time to rookie Zion Rose, who has been hitting when given the chance. My only reluctance to not use Rose more is he's the weaker defensive catcher and we've had some poor pitching performances with him behind the plate. Also last season's Rookie of the Year Ethan Holliday has seen his ratings downgraded, from 70 contact to 60 and without a lot of power he suddenly doesn't look as promising a player. And Saggese has not hit like he's done in previous years getting full-time DH at-bats.



Down is up and black is white here as the starters have been incredible with ironically our best starter last year Pepiot struggling the most, although the .389 BABIP against has a lot to do with that. George Kirby has been the pitcher we thought we were acquiring last July and even rookie Garrett Lambert (he qualifies by just 1 2/3 IP!) has been solid. But the pen has been problematic. New closer Elvis Alvarado has been good, but he missed the final week of the month with a minor injury (but is back May 1) and Matthew Peguero has struggled mightily in his stead. The Cronin injury gives us a shortage of lefties with only Cotto left from opening day but we did call up Geudis Ramos, who was decent in his brief appearances last year.

I'll check in on the farm next month, although one guy we thought might help at some point, slugging OF Brailer Guerrero, broke a bone in his elbow and is done for the season.

[Art Deco]

Record: 29-24 (16-13 for the month)
1st place AL East, 2 games ahead of Boston

Another month in which we didn't set the world on fire but thanks to a muddled AL East we still find ourselves top of the heap. There wasn't a lot of news in May except that Carson Williams suffered his annual injury, this time a fractured foot which will sideline him until mid-June. Last year's Rule 5 guy Luis Almeyda was called up from Durham to take his place where he had 11 homers. The daily log of an up-and-down month, with suffering a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees in New York the low point:





The White Sox and Phillies continued their insane starts to the season while Seattle is their struggling opposite.



As you can see we're largely who we are, right on the Pythag record and mostly being carried by the pitching with the surprisingly mediocre offense holding us back to an extent. The long ball and our top-notch baserunning are the only bright spots in that department as we're struggling to make contact and get on base.



And at that top and the bottom of that offense for May you can see the changing of the guard at DH, at least against righties as Saggese hit his way out of the job while rookie Cooper Kinney got hot at the end of the month, hitting a pair of 2-run homers in one game and then a grand slam in the next. Ethan Holliday's sophomore slump is getting concerning (with good reason given his hit tool being downgraded from 70 to 60) but we do have alternatives if he doesn't show improvement in backup Cody Schrier and Owen Paino, who's raking at Durham this year after raking at Montgomery last. It was a shame Williams got hurt as he was red-hot, while Elly and Tatis continue to be studs.



As mentioned the pitching remained good overall but it was kind of a 180 from April where the starters excellent and the bullpen struggled as you can see above, with 4/5ths of the rotation at the bottom with only rookie Garrett Lambert having a great month despite a 1-4 record to show for it. The pen though picked us up and even Peguero was good this month except for one outing where he gave up a 3-run walk-off homer in that doomed Yankees series.



Our prospect pool has gotten very thin - not sure why Paino is not on here, ranked at #26 when he's just about big-league ready but nobody else is really distinguishing themselves.

[Art Deco]

Record: 44-34 (15-10 for the month)
2nd place AL East, tied w/Baltimore (behind on win %), 1st wild card

Another solid but unspectacular month for the 2030 Rays. We welcomed the perpetually-injured Carson Williams back mid-month, only for him to get hurt again right before the end of it, this time with torn ankle ligaments which should keep him out through mid-August. The other member of our keystone combo got hurt too as Ethan Holliday separated his shoulder early in June. He was just sent on a rehab assignment the first of the month but might not be getting his job back (more on that in a bit). Reliever Angel Felipe went down around the 10th and will need Tommy John surgery; to take his place we claimed lefty reliever Luis Peralta on waivers from Miami. Peralta is rated 70/50/50, had 9 saves and earned 2.4 WAR with the Marlins, allowing 0 homers and fanning 58 in 48 IP but he's stunk since joining us. Otherwise it's been steady as she goes with a few bench players turning into regulars. This month's game action:








With the talent we have I'd think by now we'd be better offensively but it remains a fits-and-starts kind of thing. The pitching has remained solid.

As always at the midway point I'm going with YTD stats to get the bigger picture:



Elly is following up his MVP season with another MVP-caliber season, and while Tatis is 2nd on the club and providing power, his .254 BA is something he could improve and really have a big 2nd half. But the guys I want to call attention to are Cooper Kinney and Owen Paino. As mentioned in the May post Kinney was started to get hot and was taking DH at-bats from Saggese. Well he hasn't looked back and is now the everyday DH against RHP and has flat-out raked as you see above. Speaking of raking, Paino has done nothing but that since being called up to replace the injured Holliday and may be ready to Wally Pipp last year's AL Rookie of the Year, who was suffering from a severe sophomore slump this season anyway. Also worthy of special mention is Jeffry Rosa, who started the year as a 4th OF and now is the lineup on almost a daily basis, drawing walks and showing off his prodigious power (.648 SLG). His additional ABs are coming to some extent at the expense of Bobby Marsh, who for the third season running has failed to live up to the promise of his brilliant 2027 season despite ratings much better than his performance. Rosa's the DH against lefties and Kinney's been filling some at 1B to get Rosa's bat in the lineup against RHP. And Zion Rose, despite being a lesser defensive catcher than Patrick Bailey, has shown so much with the bat relative to Bailey that he's been getting more starts lately himself.



Not much to complain about on the staff, with most everyone putting solid if not spectacular numbers. The glaring exception is former closer Matthew Peguero, who has been downright dreadful and is only now being used in low-leverage situations.

Going to forego the prospect report for now but will catch up on that with the All-Star Break/Amateur Draft post next.

[Art Deco]

Before we get into the All-Star festivities and the Draft, some updates on the team and a big trade:

First off we're 53-38, 3 games up on Baltimore and 9-4 so far in July. That's the good news. The bad news is that we lost one of our starters to Tommy John surgery as Jose Ramirez went down and will essentially be lost until 2032. To replace him in the rotation we're making Magdiel Cotto a starter and he responded big-time in his first start, going 6 3 0 0 2 7 to beat Pittsburgh 2-0 in our last game before the break. Also we shook things up with a sizable trade:



After 2 1/2 seasons of mediocrity, I've finally pulled the plug on Bobby Marsh. I wrote in the June recap that Marsh "has failed to live up to the promise of his brilliant 2027 season despite ratings much better than his performance", but fortunately those ratings meant he still commanded a decent price on the trade market and we obtained his younger, cheaper replacement in Brown, who profiles as thus:



He's a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year as he was hitting 319/391/540 for Texas with 9 HR and 26 RBI. Since joining us he's kept it up, hitting 364/500/591 in 6 games including a homer and six walks. The only drawback with him is a pretty pronounced platoon split as he doesn't hit lefties well at all. That's OK since we can go with Thomas Saggese at 1B against them.

But wait, there's more! We got another 1B prospect in Gentry, who's an interesting guy who has 70 MLB contact with 80 potential and is a 70 avoid Ks guy, but only has 35 power with 40 potential, not your typical 1B profile. And also coming over is Arrambide, who's more likely to help us down the line as he's a 60 catcher with 50 power and 45 contact, and those are all now ratings, not potential. He'll pair nicely with Zion Rose next season. The other we guy we sent Texas (Granillo) is a C- prospect.

So on to the All-Star festivities:

Selected to play for the American League All-Stars are:

SP Javier Assad (CWS) - 12-1, 2.97 ERA, 112.0 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 2.3 WAR
SP Genesis Cabrera (OAK) - 4-1, 2.71 ERA, 66.1 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.7 WAR
SP Cristian Javier (LAA)* - 4-4, 2.61 ERA, 69.0 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.7 WAR (Injured)
SP David Leal (HOU) - 5-5, 3.34 ERA, 110.1 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 1.8 WAR
SP Prince Lovette (CLE) - 6-8, 4.08 ERA, 114.2 IP, 1.40 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 3.9 WAR
SP Adrian Morejon (CWS) - 7-7, 3.45 ERA, 101.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.5 WAR
SP Adrian Ogando (OAK) - 7-2, 2.36 ERA, 87.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 1.9 WAR
SP Grayson Rodriguez (CWS) - 9-6, 3.24 ERA, 130.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 WAR
RP Davis Martin (CWS) - 3-1, 3.36 ERA, 59.0 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 0.2 WAR
RP Andrew Nardi (BOS) - 4-0, 3.14 ERA, 51.2 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 0.8 WAR
RP Freddy Peralta (CLE) - 3-1, 3.04 ERA, 50.1 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 0.2 WAR
CL Emmanuel Clase (OAK) - 4-3, 26 SV, 1.66 ERA, 43.1 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.2 WAR
CL Yordy Richard (BAL) - 2-1, 24 SV, 0.74 ERA, 36.2 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.7 WAR
CL Jonathan Sprinkle (HOU)* - 2-3, 23 SV, 1.56 ERA, 34.2 IP, 0.84 WHIP, 14.5 K/9, 2.4 WAR
C Francisco Alvarez (LAA)* - .227/.318/.408, 255 AB, 13 HR, 2 SB, 102 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
C Samuel Basallo (BAL) - .235/.302/.448, 281 AB, 14 HR, 1 SB, 104 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
C Edgar Quero (TOR) - .242/.326/.375, 264 AB, 7 HR, 95 wRC+, 0.5 WAR (Injured)
C Campbell Smithwick (HOU) - .308/.351/.376, 250 AB, 2 HR, 1 SB, 102 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
1B Pete Anderson (DET)* - .260/.331/.429, 338 AB, 14 HR, 3 SB, 105 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
1B Brett Baty (NYY) - .292/.358/.515, 342 AB, 19 HR, 2 SB, 140 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
1B Nick Kurtz (DET)* - .287/.368/.566, 334 AB, 27 HR, 1 SB, 151 wRC+, 3.4 WAR (Injured)
1B Jeff McNeil (MIN) - .335/.394/.442, 206 AB, 1 HR, 1 SB, 135 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
2B Vaughn Grissom (LAA)* - .257/.327/.386, 342 AB, 8 HR, 14 SB, 99 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
2B Reylin Perez (DET) - .309/.369/.580, 269 AB, 18 HR, 3 SB, 156 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
3B Elly De La Cruz (TB) - .304/.361/.541, 329 AB, 20 HR, 31 SB, 149 wRC+, 4.4 WAR
3B Nolan Jones (BOS) - .297/.353/.506, 320 AB, 15 HR, 3 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
3B Wes Kath (CWS)* - .249/.336/.556, 329 AB, 27 HR, 1 SB, 137 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
SS Jonathan Davis (OAK) - .332/.340/.523, 241 AB, 7 HR, 2 SB, 133 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
SS Gunnar Henderson (BAL)* - .307/.389/.568, 345 AB, 23 HR, 8 SB, 163 wRC+, 4.3 WAR
SS Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) - .261/.313/.475, 318 AB, 16 HR, 15 SB, 112 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
LF Teudis Cortorreal (BAL) - .242/.336/.539, 310 AB, 26 HR, 1 SB, 136 wRC+, 2.5 WAR
LF Brando Mayea (CLE) - .291/.357/.532, 299 AB, 19 HR, 33 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
LF Michael Mullinax (KC)* - .305/.367/.486, 259 AB, 11 HR, 10 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.6 WAR (Injured)
LF Jeffry Rosa (TB) - .274/.376/.618, 186 AB, 19 HR, 170 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
CF Julio Rodriguez (SEA)* - .288/.366/.508, 299 AB, 16 HR, 23 SB, 140 wRC+, 4.5 WAR
CF Mike Trout (LAA) - .269/.349/.491, 324 AB, 19 HR, 1 SB, 129 wRC+, 2.4 WAR
RF Aaron Judge (NYY)* - .316/.391/.648, 310 AB, 29 HR, 1 SB, 179 wRC+, 3.6 WAR (Injured)
RF Jose Ramos (TEX) - .306/.351/.559, 304 AB, 17 HR, 147 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
RF Kyle Tucker (HOU) - .291/.352/.549, 326 AB, 20 HR, 9 SB, 144 wRC+, 3.2 WAR

Not a lot of Rays representation with only Elly (bidding for another MVP) and surprise (but deserving) selection Jeffry Rosa.

The National League All-Stars will have these players on their roster:

SP Dari Brito (MIA)* - 5-7, 4.00 ERA, 110.1 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.4 WAR
SP Moises Brito (MIL) - 4-7, 4.15 ERA, 106.1 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 11.4 K/9, 1.3 WAR
SP Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 8-4, 3.57 ERA, 128.2 IP, 1.17 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 1.9 WAR
SP Bubba Chandler (PIT) - 12-5, 2.65 ERA, 119.0 IP, 1.12 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 4.3 WAR
SP Jose Garces (PIT) - 4-4, 2.70 ERA, 113.1 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.5 WAR
SP Matt Manning (SD) - 4-6, 2.38 ERA, 94.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 1.4 WAR
SP Trenton Shaw (STL) - 4-1, 1.74 ERA, 51.2 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1.6 WAR
RP Andrew Baker (PHI) - 6-3, 3.26 ERA, 38.2 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 14.0 K/9, 0.7 WAR
RP Jose Chavez (SF) - 1-1, 2.00 ERA, 54.0 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 1.1 WAR
RP Sheldon Reed (WSH) - 4-0, 2.37 ERA, 49.1 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 0.8 WAR
RP Eric Torres (ATL) - 5-5, 4.07 ERA, 48.2 IP, 1.09 WHIP, 12.4 K/9, 1.1 WAR
CL Andy Hernandez (ATL) - 3-1, 26 SV, 1.13 ERA, 47.2 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 1.6 WAR
CL Alex Vesia (PHI)* - 2-0, 23 SV, 0.76 ERA, 35.2 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, 2.2 WAR
C Diego Cartaya (PIT) - .224/.325/.419, 246 AB, 11 HR, 108 wRC+, 1.5 WAR
C Harry Ford (WSH) - .297/.349/.462, 249 AB, 7 HR, 9 SB, 119 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
C Adley Rutschman (ATL)* - .256/.322/.455, 266 AB, 9 HR, 1 SB, 112 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
1B Zaid Diaz (MIA)* - .291/.347/.544, 327 AB, 23 HR, 1 SB, 146 wRC+, 2.3 WAR
2B Jarrod Clemetson (ATL) - .289/.355/.451, 315 AB, 10 HR, 8 SB, 121 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
2B Wander Franco (LAD) - .284/.349/.446, 334 AB, 10 HR, 8 SB, 119 wRC+, 1.9 WAR
2B Noelvi Marte (PHI) - .259/.361/.480, 321 AB, 20 HR, 8 SB, 131 wRC+, 3.4 WAR
2B Dylan O'Rae (CHC) - .314/.402/.471, 140 AB, 3 HR, 6 SB, 141 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
2B Rene Ramirez Jr. (MIL) - .271/.351/.552, 317 AB, 25 HR, 1 SB, 146 wRC+, 3.1 WAR
2B Jack Ruckert (COL)* - .289/.372/.453, 329 AB, 10 HR, 3 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.1 WAR
3B Cam Collier (CIN) - .312/.368/.576, 340 AB, 22 HR, 5 SB, 157 wRC+, 4.1 WAR
3B Oneil Cruz (PIT) - .273/.345/.455, 319 AB, 14 HR, 6 SB, 122 wRC+, 2.7 WAR
3B Luis Garcia (WSH)* - .311/.340/.565, 347 AB, 23 HR, 2 SB, 140 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
SS Royce Lewis (CIN)* - .230/.303/.415, 313 AB, 13 HR, 4 SB, 94 wRC+, 1.5 WAR (Injured)
LF Ryan Clifford (AZ)* - .289/.368/.595, 291 AB, 26 HR, 10 SB, 160 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
LF Chad Fisher (STL)* - .338/.429/.552, 210 AB, 11 HR, 1 SB, 173 wRC+, 2.9 WAR (Injured)
LF John Kramer (PHI) - .270/.315/.535, 344 AB, 25 HR, 130 wRC+, 1.8 WAR
LF Juan Soto (NYM) - .278/.431/.546, 291 AB, 22 HR, 1 SB, 173 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
CF Robert Calaz (COL)* - .316/.385/.540, 326 AB, 17 HR, 9 SB, 148 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
CF Dreyton Galloway (MIL) - .328/.370/.487, 351 AB, 5 HR, 18 SB, 130 wRC+, 3.7 WAR
RF Ronald Acuna Jr. (PIT) - .276/.351/.517, 333 AB, 21 HR, 12 SB, 140 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
RF Malakhi Knight (WSH)* - .296/.358/.617, 274 AB, 26 HR, 8 SB, 157 wRC+, 3.5 WAR
RF Jordan Walker (STL) - .229/.322/.467, 315 AB, 20 HR, 9 SB, 115 wRC+, 2.6 WAR


The Derby (no Rays participated):

The 2030 Home Run Derby took place at loanDepot Park. Zaid Diaz won the event, though he had to beat some stiff competition. In the final round, the Miami Marlins first baseman was matched against Malakhi Knight. Diaz defeated him by a score of 21-20.

"I was tiring a little at the end," said Diaz. "I had to dig deep to pull this one out."

Diaz has registered a career batting average of .267 with 560 hits, 122 homers and 314 RBIs.

The game:



Congrats to Elly, whose 2-run homer capped a 5-run 6th that won it for the AL. Rosa also came through with a pinch single.

The Draft:



We went high school pitching-heavy at the top of our draft. Vokey is a potential 65/80/60 ace and Wallace isn't far behind as a potential 60/70/70 guy. Cardenas looks to be able to play all over the infield and corner outfield as well with a potential 55 glove at SS. If he sticks there he could be something as he has 60 contact and 70 power potential. Brokenborough (I look forward to typing that name all the time) might be able to play center (50 peak) and looks to have broad-based hitting skills with 60 power, 65 gap and 60 contact potential. Finally Clague is more likely to end up in a corner but has solid bat-to-ball skills with potential 80 contact and 80 avoid Ks and could develop 60 power to go with that.

All of these guys are high school kids, though, so there's a long way between here and there.

[Art Deco]

Record: 62-40 (18-6 for the month)
1st place AL East, 6 games up on Baltimore

Well we had three okay months to start the season but July was a great one as the Rays dominated their opposition before and after the All-Star break. And in recognition of their status as true contenders, we made another big trade to boost the squad for the stretch run after the deal with Texas chronicled in the previous post. Now part of this was necessitated by stalwart starter Jose Ramirez succumbing to a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery and then the same happened to Magdiel Cotto, who moved from the bullpen to take his place and only lasted until his third start. So we needed to find some help for the rotation and boy did we, making this deal right at the July 31 deadline:



The Dodgers had fallen out of contention and were looking to move Skenes, whose contract is up at the end of the season. The ace righty was 9-5, 3.40 for LA and on pace for 222 whiffs and 4.2 WAR The real price for him was Sosin, our #1 pick in 2027 but who's been struggling with his command in the minors and still has quite a ways to go before realizing his potential. Bailey was necessary in the deal (as well as LA picking up 65% of Skenes' salary) so that we could afford to make it. While he's been our starting C for the last several years he too is a free agent at year's end and has fallen to a replacement-level player (literally as his current WAR is 0.0). It's a bit of a risk turning over the staff to rookie Zion Rose but whatever defensive shortcomings he has are made up for by his offense (270/323/566 with 11 HR in 152 AB). And he'll be backed up by another rookie as we've decided to call up Cade Arrambide, acquired in the Bobby Marsh/Mike Brown deal earlier this month. Arrambide has a bit of pop in his bat and is the best defensive C in our system, rated 60.

In other team doings we got some more bad news on the injury front as the fragile Carson Williams won't be coming back this year from the torn ankle ligaments he suffered in June as he'll now need surgery on them. Fortunately we're fairly deep in the middle infield and Cody Schrier has been outstanding in limited action (272/331/457 with 1.4 WAR in 54 games) while Luis Almeyda is due back from his injury early in August.

This is how the month played out:



Had a run in there where we won 11 of 12 and 7 in a row before dropping the final game of the month. The much better-looking standings:



Not only have we moved into first, but into a 2-seed as it's always nice to avoid the wild card round.



We're not a very good team when it comes to batting average but we more than make up for it by drawing walks, hitting homers, and stealing bases. The pitching remains a strength and while the defense doesn't have a great zone rating it's still making the plays to maintain a very good defensive efficiency.



Elly continues to state his claim for another MVP with months like July and Jeffry Rosa has been our secret weapon all year. As you can see Rose was starting to wrest the job from Bailey anyway. Mike Brown had a mediocre Marsh-like first month with us, Auer continues to have his struggles with the bat but is playing a good CF and stealing tons of bases, but hopefully he and Tatis (having an okay but not Tatis-level season) pick it up. And Kinney came back to Earth this month, losing PT to Brown and Rosa.



A good month for the staff outside of the injuries with the back end of the bullpen (even Peguero) getting the job done. Kirby's numbers for the month are skewed by a disastrous start he had on the month's final day while Mason Montgomery has been a pleasant surprise.




The farm system remains mediocre but did get a boost from our top two picks Vokey and Wallace, who are now our #2 and #3 prospects.

[Art Deco]

Record: 76-53 (14-13 for the month)
1st place AL East, 9 1/2 ahead of Boston

A month of treading water, but when treading that water still leaves you 9 1/2 games up in the division it's not such a bad thing. The month actually started as a continuation of our blistering-hot July with 5 straight wins but then the slump set in as we went 8-13 over the next 21. Not coincidentally we lost the red-hot Jeffry Rosa to a broken finger on the 10th and his massive power bat was missed. He'll be back in mid-September and that was the only injury of significance. We did make a couple of roster additions during the month. Reliever Norge Vera was claimed off waivers from Washington early in August. The righty boasts 70 stuff and 70 movement but only 40 control. His 9/18 BB/K ratio in 15 IP since joining us is about right but the 3 homers he's allowed isn't. Also we had signed veteran OF Daulton Varsho to a minor league deal after the Mets let him go and we promoted him just before the end of the month to get him postseason-eligible. He'll have a shot at platooning in CF with Mason Auer, who has still yet to lift his AVG above the Mendoza Line. The game-by-game:



Around MLB:



The Orioles used to be our closest pursuers but they went on a 12-game losing streak before recovering to win their last 4 of the month and are barely clinging to a wild card. The main news for us is that we're 4 up on Oakland for #2 seed and a bye.



If you like strikeouts you'll love 2030 Rays baseball as our staff is first in striking people out and the bats are #1 in striking out the most. Otherwise these numbers are similar to last month's, only slightly worse.



To show you how ludicrous Rosa was before he got hurt, his 7 homers are second for the month - and they came in only 9 games! Lora and Kinney were poor substitutes for him at DH the rest of the way. Meanwhile Tatis finally got going, especially late in the month, while Elly nosedived off his repeat MVP pace.



The bullpen was outstanding but the starters were a mixed bag. Skenes was about what we were expecting and hoping for in his first month with the club but Lambert and especially Kirby were lousy. Teodo has probably solidified the #3 spot in the playoff rotation but #4 remains a tossup.

We'll revisit the prospects in the regular season wrapup next month. Meanwhile September is all about staying healthy for October.

[Art Deco]

Final Regular Season Record: 94-68 (18-15 for Sep/Oct)
First place AL East, #2 overall seed

We closed out the regular season and coasted to the division title without much incident or injury. There was a stretch when we had whittled our magic # down to 1 but couldn't clinch for three days as the Yankees swept us while Baltimore kept winning but we were only delayed, not denied. There were a couple of roles up for grabs - Mason Auer reclaimed CF from the short side of a platoon with Daulton Varsho by hitting 313/352/631 in the final month with 7 HR, 15 RBI and 10 SB, and Garrett Lambert claimed the 4th starter role for the playoffs over George Kirby, who was terrible down the stretch.

This is how we played at the end, clinching the division with over a week to spare:




The final MLB standings, where all the playoff spots were clinched going into the final weekend of the season so a complete lack of drama:



Auer took the SB crown but Pepiot lost out on the wins lead. Here's how the playoff tree shakes out:



Our final team stats:



Nothing to complain about here as we were pretty good in all facets of the game and deserved our 94-68 record.

Final batting:



Elly had a great season but had an ordinary September which caused him to lose a fair amount of ground to Gunnar Henderson in the WAR race and may have cost him a second straight MVP. Can't say enough about Jeffry Rosa, who would have easily cleared 5 (if not 6) WAR had he not missed a month from mid-August to mid-September but still came back to hit 8 HR and 20 RBI in 83 AB after returning from injury and for the year hit a homer an amazing every 9.1 at-bats. As mentioned Auer closed strong and nearly reached the 3-WAR mark despite hitting .213 for the year.



Overall the pitching was really good even if outside of Pepiot and Alvarado we didn't have any pitchers having well above-average seasons. Skenes was a victim of a high BABIP (.344) in his two months with us and will hopefully show ace form in the playoffs and he and Pepiot will be our 1-2 starters with Teodo and Lambert following.



Not the most exciting prospect list with just all the top guys at least a few years away. Owen Paino (who hit really well in a brief callup) and Bralier Guerrero look like the most likely 2031 contributors.

On to the playoffs where we'll try once again to bring our first title home. We've made the World Series in two of the previous three seasons only to lose so we've been getting close.

[Art Deco]

Detroit will face the #1-seeded White Sox in the ALDS



And the Rays' opponent in the ALDS will be Oakland, which overcame losing Game 1.



Just like Oakland the Cards came back from losing Game 1 and they'll play Philadelphia in the NLDS.



You may be picking up on a theme here as the Rockies also dropped the opener before storming back, and they'll face Pittsburgh in the other NLDS. And with scores of 12-11, 11-10 and 10-6 there's not much doubt where this series was played.

[Art Deco]

A comedy of errors...



Mike Brown gave the Rays a quick 1-0 lead with an opposite field homer in the 1st but it was a complete fiasco thereafter for the Rays thanks to a nightmare second inning that went like this: strikeout, Cody Schrier error, walk, infield single, bases-loaded walk, dropped fly ball by Jackson Chourio to score another, a 2-run single, a ground out, and a 2-run triple. Paul Skenes should have done a lot better (the walks especially) but without the errors he would have been out of the inning. And although the offense gamely tried to keep up, Geudis Ramos gave up a grand slam to Matt Olson, and that was that. So it's up to Ryan Pepiot to keep us from heading to Oakland in a deep 0-2 hole.

Meanwhile postseason history was made in Chicago. Move over, Don Larsen:







It was also a Maddux for Morejon as he got the perfecto on 95 pitches.

[Art Deco]

Phew...



For the longest time a sour mood pervaded Tropicana Field as on the heels of allowing 11 runs yesterday, the Rays saw the A's put 3 more on the board in the first when Ryan Pepiot gave up a 3-run shot with 2 out in the 1st. While he settled in from there, it was a day of frustration for the offense as they continually put multiple runners on but couldn't bring them home - after 6 they trailed 3-1 but were out-hitting Oakland 9-4. Finally they got the big blow they need on rookie Zion Rose's 2-run game-tying homer in the 7th and the bullpen was brilliant, holding Oakland off the board. That set up the 10th when they put the first two on and survived a double play when Jackson Chourio singled home Mike Brown with the walk-off winner to send us to Oakland level. Emaliano Teodo, the classic never-know-what-you're-going-to-get starter, will hopefully gives us something good in Game 3.

Elsewhere the other ALDS is all tied up as well while Philly's Andrew Painter nearly equaled Adrian Morejon's perfect game from yesterday with a complete game 1-hitter on only 87 pitches:

[Art Deco]

And now all four division series are tied at 1:

[Art Deco]

Advantage Rays...



It's a bit unfair to be frustrated with any hitter over a 2 2/3-game span but when Elly De La Cruz came to the plate in the 8th he was bearing the burden of being the reigning AL MVP with a chance to repeat who was underachieving when it mattered most and his team less than 2 innings away from facing an elimination game. So he did what any great player does and rose to the occasion, belting a 3-run homer than turned a potential 2-1 loss into a 4-2 win, giving the Rays a 2-1 advantage and a chance to advance behind Garrett Lambert tomorrow. They did get an excellent start from the mercurial Emiliano Teodo but thanks to a 2-run double from Dylan Crews (who's been a Rays-killer in this series) he found himself down 2-0 when he left after 6. Zion Rose came up with another big homer to get them on the board in the 7th, and Elly took it from there.

The higher seed also won Game 3 on the road in the other ALDS:

[Art Deco]

The chance was there...



The Rays could have wrapped up the ALDS in Oakland but didn't, so now we're headed to a decisive Game 5 in St. Pete in two days. Our other inconsistent starter Garrett Lambert was terrible, giving up 6 runs in under 3 innings and putting us in a 6-3 hole, but Fernando Tatis Jr, who himself had been quiet through the first 3 games, hit his 2nd 2-run homer of the game to get us back in it and Zion Rose came through once again with the game-tying RBI single in the 8th. But with two on and one out they couldn't get the go-ahead run in and the offense dried up after that. So when we finally had to turn another inconsistent pitcher in the 12th for the first time this series, deposed closer Matthew Peguero showed his rust by failing to retire any of the four batters he faced with the final one delivering a series-tying RBI single. So Paul Skenes will get the ball in Game 5 and pitching the big game was why we acquired him at the trade deadline. Hopefully he'll have a much better showing than he did in Game 1.

Meanwhile, the White Sox await the winner of our series after they dispatched Detroit in their ALDS and we edge closer to the Battle of Pennsylvania in the NLCS: