The Bucs Start Here - A Pirates Do-Over

[luckymann]

Highest Pitching WAR in Final Season

[luckymann]

A fascinating study in contrasts that really highlights how much effect peripheral factors can have.

Maris is, of course, with us, which means he is not seeing the weaker expansion club pitching across the aisle in the AL.

Also, as I have mentioned previously, 3-year recalc is being applied for this save. To this point I have not used double weighting, but I have decided to make the switch when I move this save to v24 - scheduled for after the 1963 season when there's a brief hiatus in structural movement for the league during this Expansion Era.

Finally, Roger is playing half his games at pitcher-friendly Forbes Field (HR park factor for LHB .879 v Yankee Stadium's 1.097).

Taking these things into consideration is why I never felt Maris would even closely approximate his 61 IRL HR here; even more so given the well-known problems this version of the game has with outlier performances.

Still, I am surprised with how few he has hit to this point. His 3-year recalc average is a tad over 43, and yet he is currently on just 17 - which means he won't even make it to half as many as the historical, 29 in fact being the projection at the time of posting.

In comparison, Mantle hit 15 in July alone and currently leads the MLB with 31, which projects to 47. That is a swing of 25 in Mantle's favour should it pan out.

Interestingly, this happened when I was testing to see if I would be able to move this save across to v24 for this season, which I really wanted to do so as to bypass those outlier issues. Both on 23 and 24, in the numerous tests I ran, Maris never went close to 61. In one of them, Norm Cash of all people hit 66. I only have TCR set to 75, so it isn't randomness, or at least not totally. Nor is it an AI issue, as the single-season replays I did using historical lineups replicated both of them with extraordinary accuracy.

What I suspect is that this is another function of the imprint a player receives upon import. While recalc keeps them broadly in line with the historical, some imports come in hot and others cold - and this greatly affects how the player performs in any other than a 1-year recalc setting.

This version of Roger Maris was simply never slated to have anything like his IRL 1961 under the environment established in this save. I actually think he'll have a bigger 1962, especially with our side of the league due to get their two whipping boys at the end of this year.

We shall see. Like I said, fascinating indeed.

G

[luckymann]

Another category it seems Teddy B is going to come agonisingly short of topping. Unless an expansion club picks him up, otherwise Stan looks more likely to become the all-time leader.

[luckymann]

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by luckymann

Interestingly, this happened when I was testing to see if I would be able to move this save across to v24 for this season, which I really wanted to do so as to bypass those outlier issues. Both on 23 and 24, in the numerous tests I ran, Maris never went close to 61. In one of them, Norm Cash of all people hit 66. I only have TCR set to 75, so it isn't randomness, or at least not totally. Nor is it an AI issue, as the single-season replays I did using historical lineups replicated both of them with extraordinary accuracy.

They changed the rating system for 24? If so I missed that. What did they do?

[luckymann]

Originally Posted by Brad K

They changed the rating system for 24? If so I missed that. What did they do?

They made adjustments in 23 to increase the chance of outlier seasons happening. In 24, the whole Historical DB got an overhaul.

[Brad K]

They can fiddle with the DB all they want. There's not a solution to achieving historic outliers and plausible non historic outliers until they give up the Purity Ring of Randomness and institute floors and ceilings. Maris never hitting 61 is not plausible and neither is the 82 and 83 performance posted below.

[luckymann]

Admittedly the AAA is a bit iffy at the moment post-expansion, and will stay that way awhile with the Ghost Protocol invoked.

Still, plenty of excitement to be had all the same as the Browns need a tiebreaker – their 14th straight win to finish the season – to get past the Austin Senators and set up a date with the Newark Bears – who set a regular-season record with 97 wins – in the decider.

Newark goes on to win it in a sweep, with rookie Ken Hubbs - who will carry an unbroken 40-game hit streak into next season - winning the MVP award.

[luckymann]

Of course the Big Train leads all comers with an even 500.

[luckymann]

Another year of late drama but, somewhat surprisingly, not on our side of the fence as we stare down a concerted challenge from the Giants and Cubs before they both blink and we eventually win it in a canter.

It seems like the AL is also settled as the Tigers lead the Yankees by two with two to play, with the A's coming up just short. Then, to mix my sports metaphors, they fumble the ball with the end zone clear. They lose their penultimate game to the Twins while the Yanks beat the BoSox on a walkoff slam by Yogi Berra, then lose their final game as well to leave the door wide open for New York. This time, however, the Bostonians play bouncer, rebuffing a late comeback by the Bronx Bombers to prevail 7-6 and gleefully sending the Yanks to the scrap-heap of history.

The final standings look like this:




What can I say about these guys of ours? This is another Pennant we simply have no right winning. But our magnificent men refuse to quit despite being given every opportunity to do so. We rarely play to our potential, and yet get it done for the 5th time in the past six years.




We lose Clemente for a month, Groat for 3 weeks and reliever Marshall Bridges for the season - and yet, speaking plainly, we are if anything unlucky over the final couple months, losing a bunch of one-run games. We could, in essence, have won 100 and romped it in.




No disgrace in Gene Freese just fading a bit at the very end and missing out a well-deserved batting title. His performance this year has been nothing short of immense and, along with Blanchard and Maz, he is a key reason we are back in the big dance. Maris also steps up big-time in Arriba and Dick's absence, and wins the September hitting award for his efforts, finishing with 30 homers. A late flurry flatters Piersall to some degree and we've got a tough decision with him come protection list time. and a final shout out to Lee Walls, who has been a rock for us all year and ends up with 2.6 bWAR in 370 PA.




Joe Gibbon puts together one of the best seasons in a relief role and has certainly given the writers plenty to think about regarding their reticence in handing out RoYs to non-position players. He gets plenty of support with our 1.93 BP ERA another integral factor to our success, especially given our starters' somewhat underwhelming year.


Another to quieten off at the end is Mickey Mantle, and in addition to not helping his team's cause down the stretch, this costs him another Triple Crown as he loses out in the average stakes by 3 points to KC's George Altman. Henry Aaron wins his first batting title ahead of Gene Freese, while Willie McCovey's 42 HR and Eddie Mathews' 116 RBI both eclipse Mantle by one for the MLB lead. Mathews also finishes podium in all three TC stat cats.

Whitey Ford's 23 wins are the most this year, with Sandy Koufax nailing down another strikeout title with 245 and Jim Kaat's 2.79 the low ERA mark. Tom Qualters of the Twins leads both leagues with 34 Saves.


Final Top 20s and Leaders







Monthly Award Winners

August

American League

• Batter – Minnie Minoso (White Sox): 412 / 7 HR / 22 RBI
• Pitcher – Jim Bunning (Tigers): 5-1 / 1.43 / 44 K / 56.2 IP
• Rookie – Dick Howser (Angels): 404 / 4 HR / 23 RBI

National League

• Batter – Eddie Mathews (Braves): 389 / 10 HR / 27 RBI
• Pitcher – Curt Simmons (Cubs): 5-0 / 2.27 / 15 K / 43.2 IP
• Rookie – Joe Gibbon (Pirates): 1-0 / 2.89 / 3 SV / 15 K / 18.2 IP

September

American League

• Batter – Don Mincher (Athletics): 386 / 12 HR / 27 RBI
• Pitcher – Billy O’Dell (Athletics): 4-1 / 1.93 / 38 K / 46.2 IP
• Rookie – Don Mincher

National League

• Batter – Roger Maris (Pirates): 360 / 10 HR / 28 RBI
• Pitcher – Bob Gibson (Cardinals): 4-0 / 2.30 / 27 K / 47 IP
• Rookie – Lee Thomas (Giants): 345 / 6 HR / 20 RBI

Milestones and Observations of Note

• Cincy young gun Jim Maloney and Milwaukee veteran Early Wynn are each lost for the remainder to bout of ulnar nerve entrapment.
• The Tigers' efforts are even more impressive given the loss of SP Bob Hendley in mid-September to a UCL tear.
  Conversely, the Giants’ chances of catching us never really recover from when Turk Farrell is waylaid with an elbow injury.

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[luckymann]

Pittsburgh Pirates (92-68) v Detroit Tigers (96-66)
Best-of-seven, Tigers with the home-field advantage.


PITTSBURGH PIRATES S+ PAGE

DETROIT TIGERS S+ PAGE

We certainly have our hands full here against a highly-talented Tigers squad hardened by that fairly ferocious three-way stretch battle. Their batting lineup is the equal of any in the league - led by Al Kaline, sparked by Curt Flood and powered by Norm Cash, it is without a weak spot. Dick McAuliffe’s maturation this year is another mole needing to be whacked and adds another X factor to a fantastic group. The Hendley loss leaves them a bit thin on pitching, and Moon’s absence will be felt keenly, but still they are the deserved favourites here.

But how can I ever doubt my guys? They just never let me down and I am confident if they do go down here it will be with all guns blazing, which is the only way they know. Our pitching is the key here – if we can’t keep their guys relatively quiet then we’re in all sorts. I expect Games 3 and 4 – and therefore, Game 7 if needed – to be some sort of crazy games given the pitchers slotted up for them. If we can get Podres back to how good he has been for us and how good we know he still can be, that will really swing things back in our favour.

Should be an enthralling match-up, whatever the outcome.

[luckymann]

Game 1 in Detroit

Jim Bunning (20-8, 2.94) v Camilo Pascual (13-12, 3.67)

Love the anticipation in the lead up to the first pitch being thrown, especially when the opener pits two such evenly-matched teams including the pitchers involved, as is the case here with two Johnson-Waddell winners on show. We’ll certainly be looking to make an early statement as I’m sure the Tigers will be, and leaving Motown with a game in the pocket will help our chances here exponentially.

The game and its chief protagonists do not disappoint in a pitchers’ duel that we finally get the edge in very late and close out for a 3-1 win. Pascual scatters 9 hits over his 7 IP and Gibbon delivers yet another pristine six-out showing to lock down the win. Maris has 3 hits and 2 RBI, while Blanchard pops a solo jack in a strong team performance.

Game 2 in Detroit

Frank Lary (18-9, 3.49) v Bob Friend (17-9, 3.60)

Pirates lead series 1-0

Another tough one for us here with Frank Lary among the league’s best practitioners. Bob Friend showed plenty of guts in the corresponding game a year ago to hang tough after early trouble and that’s all we want from him again today.

Pitching dominates for the second straight game, which almost totally mirrors the previous one as we break a scoreless deadlock in the 8th and lock down a shutout win. Friend is simply outstanding, giving up just 3 hits and fanning the same number, while Felipe Alou is the hero at the plate with a pinch-hit home run that ends up being the only scoring. Never in our wildest dreams did we envisage going home two to the good, now we have to take full advantage of having done so.

Game 3 in Pittsburgh

Johnny Podres (14-10, 4.42) v Roger Craig (8-14, 4.37)

Pirates lead series 2-0

Little difference again from a year ago, with Podres’ spotty form and yet such great talent an impossible paradox to separate beforehand. He takes on Roger Craig, who is more of a workhorse than a star but still rates highly with our Scouting department.

Johnny isn’t too bad, but Craig is even better in another low-scoring affair with them leading from the off and just sneaking home in the end by 3 to 2 with the tying run stranded at second. Norm Cash’s 2-run homer in the 6th proves the difference and Craig impresses over his 6 frames. Let’s hope that is the last we see of him for the year.

Game 4 in Pittsburgh

Bob Purkey (13-8, 3.49) v Galen Cisco (6-4, 3.05)

Pirates lead series 2-1

A couple underrated albeit inconsistent guys up on duty in this one. Bob Purkey has definitely been working hard on his game and the dividend for that has been reaped with a much-improved showing this year. We are expecting that to continue and a strong performance here will do his hopes in that regard the world of good. Rookie Cisco acquitted himself very well in his maiden season and we are prepared for more of the same here.

This ends up being almost two different games merged into one as the early innings continue the tight, pitching-dominant theme before the bats comes alive. They go ahead 4-0 in the 5th only for us to get back on level terms in one swing as Gene Freese smacks a slam. They then erase all 4 of those runs over the ensuing two innings and square the series at 2 with a 9-4 win. Kaline leads the way for them with 4 hits including a homer and 2 RBI. Game. On.

Game 5 in Pittsburgh

Camilo Pascual (0-0, 0.00) v Jim Bunning (0-0, 1.50)

Series tied 2-2

And so this series, and the entire season in fact, is distilled into a best-of-three contest. No home side has yet won a game, a pattern we can ill afford to let continue here as the Game 1 pitchers meet again.

The bats go ominously quiet and they eventually get to Patata and then Aguirre late in relief, grinding out another impressive win to go back to Detroit in control of their own destiny. Kaline is killing us and adds 3 hits and 4 RBI to his growing total, while Bunning once again shows the icy control he has become renowned for. We will need every bit of gumption we are renowned for to escape this pretty predicament we've put ourselves in.

Game 6 in Detroit

Bob Friend (1-0, 2.00) v Bennie Daniels (0-1, 9.00)

Tigers lead series 3-2

Our comeback from this point a year ago was greatly helped by the fact that the final two games were at Forbes. No such like this time around, and we’ve forced ourselves to do this the hardest possible way. It all starts with Friend keeping us close, or preferably repeating his Game 2 heroics. Then the offence has to wake up or else we are toast. Easier said than done against Lary.

Fateful words indeed those, as he keeps us oh so quiet at plate and consigns us to our first World Series loss since 1947. We actually don’t get our first hit until the 6th and just 4 all told as we never look remotely capable of bridging the gap from the moment we fall behind. Friend does all he can, but our bats simply choose to go on holiday a week ahead of time. Kudos to the Tigers, they have a fine ballclub indeed and thoroughly deserve this, the fourth title in franchise history. Equally deserving: Al Kaline’s 2nd career MVP award.

DETROIT WINS SERIES 4-2

SERIES MVP: Al Kaline (Detroit)

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[luckymann]

Phase two of the league’s expansion happens this year, with the Mets and Colt .45s joining the NL and our schedule expanding to 162 games, same as the AL. As with last year, we’ll cover all this in more depth come Draft time in mid-December.

Cleveland’s Ralph Judd is the only Manager given the old heave-ho.

We send Johnny Blanchard and Andre Rodgers to arbitration, but non-tender Hal Smith, Seth Morehead, Rocky Bridges and Fred Green, and also let Danny O’Connell walk - freeing up over $100k in payroll.

Retirees in a fairly quiet offseason include George Kell, Mike Garcia, Ned Garver, Walt Dropo, Earl Torgeson, Red Schoendienst, Cass Michaels and one guy who gets a post to himself.

[luckymann]

One of the absolute greats of the game takes his leave of it, leaving a glittering career in his wake. Here are some statistical highlights from it:

• BA: .330 (8th all-time)
• OBP: .456 (1st)
• SLG: .569 (6th)
• Games: 3048 (5th)
• Runs: 2119 (1st)
• Hits: 3295 (5th)
• Doubles: 587 (5th)
• HR: 550 (3rd)
• RBI: 1990 (2nd)
• BB: 2328 (1st)
• bWAR: 143.49 (2nd)

Add to that 31 Player of the Week and 27 Hitter of the Month Awards, 6 MVPs, 15 Silver Slugger Awards, 20 All-Star appearances, 5 Championships and 2 World Series MVPs.

That is some legacy. See you in a few years, Legend.

[luckymann]

AL 1961 HISTORY INDEX

NL 1961 HISTORY INDEX

AWARDS HISTORY


Mickey Mantle's unbelievable run continues as he wins his seventh straight and ninth Wagner-Lajoie all up, while Eddie Mathews returns to the winner's circle for his second after a nine-year absence. Jim O'Toole is a repeat Johnson-Waddell winner, with Jim Bunning winning his second. Joe Gibbon's superb season earns him a rare Paige Plate-RoY double, with the AL winners of those awards being Tom Qualters and Don Mincher, respectively.


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[luckymann]

A bit lighter-on at the top end this time around, although the overall Draft Pool is quite deep this year and a fair bit wider as well. Among the 4 Legacies is another seminal player in our club’s history.

These are the Legacy Players for the 1962 Season:

Baltimore Orioles: Dave McNally (25.5; 412 GS)
Minnesota Twins: Tony Oliva (43.0; 1676 – one-club player)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Willie Stargell (57.6; 2360 – one-club player)
San Francisco Giants: Gaylord Perry (90.0; 367 GS)


There are 150 rookies for this season, and the Draft will consist of 7 rounds of 20.

The Draft order will be as follows (winning percentage from 1961 IRL season in brackets; bold indicates Legacy Pick in 1st Round), with the two NL Expansion clubs picking first but after Legacy recipients in Round 1:


Round 1

1. San Francisco Giants (552)
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (487)
3. Minnesota Twins (438)
4. Baltimore Orioles (586)
5. New York Mets (N/A)
6. Houston Colt .45s (N/A)
7. Philadelphia Phillies (305)
8. Washington Senators (379; dice roll)
9. Kansas City Athletics (379; dice roll)
10. Chicago Cubs (416)
11. Los Angeles Angels (435)
12. Boston Red Sox (469)
13. Cleveland Indians (484)
14. St. Louis Cardinals (519)
15. Chicago White Sox (531)
16. Milwaukee Braves (539)
17. Los Angeles Dodgers (578)
18. Cincinnati Reds (604)
19. Detroit Tigers (623)
20. New York Yankees (673)


Rounds 2 thru 7

1. New York Mets (N/A)
2. Houston Colt .45s (N/A)
3. Philadelphia Phillies (305)
4. Washington Senators (379; dice roll)
5. Kansas City Athletics (379; dice roll)
6. Chicago Cubs (416)
7. Los Angeles Angels (435)
8. Minnesota Twins (438)
9. Boston Red Sox (469)
10. Cleveland Indians (484)
11. Pittsburgh Pirates (487)
12. St. Louis Cardinals (519)
13. Chicago White Sox (531)
14. Milwaukee Braves (539)
15. San Francisco Giants (552)
16. Los Angeles Dodgers (578)
17. Baltimore Orioles (586)
18. Cincinnati Reds (604)
19. Detroit Tigers (623)
20. New York Yankees (673)


In a complete reversal of a year ago, we have a bunch of eligible players in this group and enter the Draft expecting to reap a bonanza. As is so often the case, it simply doesn’t pan out that way and, in the end, we have about as fruitless a selection as I can remember.

This is who we end up with:

1. 1B / OF Willie Stargell, 21

• Thus begins this timeline’s version of the We Are Family era. Pops in da house!

2. P Tommie Sisk, 19

• Only our third choice among the pitchers, but nevertheless a nice enough pickup. Will be used almost exclusively in relief, although he might earn a few spot starts along the way.

3. IF Dal Maxvill, 22
4. P Tom Butters, 23

• So conscientiously have the other clubs (Washington and Houston, in particular) purloined our eligible players that these fringy, organisational depth guys are the best of the remaining bunch. From here on it is ineligibles and filler.

5. OF Dave Roberts, 28
6. OF Jacke Davis, 25 (ineligible)
7. P Bob Baird, 21 (ineligible)

• As stated.

Even with Stargell coming in, we walk away disappointed in the extreme.


FULL DRAFT LOG

[luckymann]

So we use our FA ticket on a guy who should be our primary IF utility for years to come. No great shakes with the stick, but covers 2B / 3B / SS niftily and for that he is a key add, at a relatively cheap 3+1/120.

Dick played for us almost concurrently to the period this deal covers.




Not long after this, we get the following sad news:




Why, Storylines, Why? yells the old man at the clouds.

[luckymann]

A reminder of the rules in place for this:

• 40 Rounds, serpentine
• 16 protected players
• Auto-protect < 2 years
• Maximum 5 picked from any team

The decisions, especially so close after the culling of a year earlier, do not get any easier. There's so much strategy you put into the protected list, trying to cover as many permutations as possible while predicting the way the two new clubs will lean with their choices and ensuring that, worst-case, you still have a functioning squad left. In the end, here's who is off limits to the Mets and Colt .45s:



Some musings on the ins and outs:

• Piersall is a strategic leave, with Virdon ready to step up and Geiger a cheaper, more flexible backup option until hopefully one of the Alou boys picks up some CF ratings. At 31, Jimmy has limited trade cachet and we can't transact now until Jan 1 anyway.
• We are concerned about Andre Rodgers' defence moving forward and with Schofield now on board he is a viable risk.
• We choose Gene Freese over Lee Walls and Mudcat Grant over Ron Kline.
• Larry Sherry and Hank Aguirre are at risk, as are any of our backup catchers because the other clubs seem to be overly protective of theirs.

Our assessment is more accurate this time as they take Piersall, Rodgers, C Sammy Taylor, Aguirre (probably the one who hurts most) and George Brunet.

Here are the first 9 Rounds:

[luckymann]

Joe DiMaggio jolts into the HoF on his first go, while Sam Bankhead continues to inch his way toward the promised land.

[luckymann]

I waste no time going and getting a guy I've been eyeing off for a while now.




With Juan - who had a couple short stints with us IRL in 1967-68 and again in '74 - entering his walk year and with a relatively short peak, this deal was conditional on us not having to part with too much.

We could have swapped Mack Jones for him straight up, but I feel we can get a better haul from him at some point and so in the end last year's hero Lee Walls leads the group heading outward. With Pops slated as our everyday 1B for '62 and beyond, and Freese on our books, Lee wasn't set to see much action and thereby rendered expendable. The plan is to call up catcher Haywood Sullivan, who also plays 1B and have him split time at both. Heaven help us, however, if we have a run of injuries at either 1B or CF.

Another key factor here is how much he's going to cost us over the next 3-4 years. If we can lock him down sub-$100k AAV then we will do so and will be making overtures in this regard almost immediately.