What Percentage of 1s Improve?

Juggernt · 02-19-2018, 10:15 PM

I'm occasionally fine with taking a flyer on a pitcher whose stuff is electric but has a control of 1/1. I know it'll be a rare thing if it happens. What's the big picture experience of how often these play out? I have the randomness set to 100, and I'm just wondering how often folks have seen such an improvement.

NoOne · 02-20-2018, 09:14 PM

if it's accurate, then very unlikely for the 1/X pitch/movement/control will ever improve. this is based on 1-100 scale resolution.. 1/10 doesn't quite man the same as 1/100. 1/10 includes more xx/200 values that are actually used.

current ability "1":

18yo's are different... they can develop from "1" more often. but, let's say it's a few years down the line and only 2/3 of his pitches are >1... it's not impossible, and at least delayed significantly, that it will ever develop, but they may very well never develop that third pitch.

a college draftee at 22 isn't likely to develop that "1/xx" pitch.

24ish is my cutoff age... probably a bit early if oyu want to hold out for the last bit of hope. i prefer to trade a playr that's lagging like that. if they can decent in pen i give a couple more years. rather not have an aged 26-28SP just getting good AND expensive at the same time... poor return on that type of development.

"1 potential"

Definitely hopeless without random TCR luck. this player may be able to fill mil levels upto AA in some cases maybe even AAA. most will have to retire after A-ball. high 2/3 stuff/control/move can be very very good mil players. plus, you pick these guys and out of 10-15 of them all of a sudden a little luck hits more often.

whether you have more luck with this type of weakness or some other in regards to TCR luck isn't clear. based on how it's been described, it's more likely to draw to the middle... i.e. a 1/200 will get struck with luck more ften than 100/200, but it also has a lot further to go. i'd wager a non "1", yet low value, would probably be the sweet spot for a player with 1 weakness and hopes of TCR future -- in regard to best % likely.

02-19-2018, 10:15 PM	#1
Juggernt Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 357	What Percentage of 1s Improve? I'm occasionally fine with taking a flyer on a pitcher whose stuff is electric but has a control of 1/1. I know it'll be a rare thing if it happens. What's the big picture experience of how often these play out? I have the randomness set to 100, and I'm just wondering how often folks have seen such an improvement.

02-20-2018, 09:14 PM	#2
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	if it's accurate, then very unlikely for the 1/X pitch/movement/control will ever improve. this is based on 1-100 scale resolution.. 1/10 doesn't quite man the same as 1/100. 1/10 includes more xx/200 values that are actually used. current ability "1": 18yo's are different... they can develop from "1" more often. but, let's say it's a few years down the line and only 2/3 of his pitches are >1... it's not impossible, and at least delayed significantly, that it will ever develop, but they may very well never develop that third pitch. a college draftee at 22 isn't likely to develop that "1/xx" pitch. 24ish is my cutoff age... probably a bit early if oyu want to hold out for the last bit of hope. i prefer to trade a playr that's lagging like that. if they can decent in pen i give a couple more years. rather not have an aged 26-28SP just getting good AND expensive at the same time... poor return on that type of development. "1 potential" Definitely hopeless without random TCR luck. this player may be able to fill mil levels upto AA in some cases maybe even AAA. most will have to retire after A-ball. high 2/3 stuff/control/move can be very very good mil players. plus, you pick these guys and out of 10-15 of them all of a sudden a little luck hits more often. whether you have more luck with this type of weakness or some other in regards to TCR luck isn't clear. based on how it's been described, it's more likely to draw to the middle... i.e. a 1/200 will get struck with luck more ften than 100/200, but it also has a lot further to go. i'd wager a non "1", yet low value, would probably be the sweet spot for a player with 1 weakness and hopes of TCR future -- in regard to best % likely. Last edited by NoOne; 02-20-2018 at 09:19 PM.