What are the odds?

Lathum · 01-12-2025, 01:44 AM

So I opened a perfect pack. It actually had 2 perfect cards, and both cards were the same. A live perfect Brent Rooker. Odds have to be in the hundreds of millions.

Ty Cobb · 01-12-2025, 02:30 AM

Congratulations.

daves · 01-13-2025, 12:08 AM

Is one of the Rookers actually playable on your team?

Lathum · 01-13-2025, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daves

Is one of the Rookers actually playable on your team?

No, sadly not

rburgh · 01-13-2025, 11:45 AM

You got 40K from a pack where you might get only 20K. You should be relatively happy. Yes, you could have done better, but at least half the perfect packs consist of one live perfect, so you did better than average.

As far as odds go, 55% of the cards you pull from non-historical packs are live. Assuming that ct,1 in 200 packs will have a bonus perfect, that makes the odds about 380,000:1. So it's unlikely that this hasn't happened before in this iteration of the game. And the odds of this happening with any live perfect instead of specifically Rooker are about 16000:1.

Morgans Magic · 01-24-2025, 03:33 PM

a couple weeks ago I landed the negro league cf Christian Torriento (sp?) a diamond in consecutive historical diamond packs, more or less likely>

rburgh · 01-26-2025, 11:15 AM

Probably more than a billion to one in a regular pack, and close to that even in a HDPK.

RunninYakAngler · 01-26-2025, 11:34 AM

Back-to-back Rainbow packs.

90 live Bryan Woo and 100 Live Rucker, both packs.

Bernagen · 12-01-2025, 10:31 AM

I’ve found that looking at long‑term trends in your league helps more than stressing over single-season swings, since the engine leans heavily on sample size and context. Sometimes I step away and read something totally different, like the breakdowns in casinos not on Gamestop, just to reset my brain before checking my roster logic again. It weirdly helps me spot things like park factors or usage patterns I missed before.

01-12-2025, 01:44 AM	#1
Lathum Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Apr 2021 Posts: 259	What are the odds? So I opened a perfect pack. It actually had 2 perfect cards, and both cards were the same. A live perfect Brent Rooker. Odds have to be in the hundreds of millions.

01-12-2025, 02:30 AM	#2
Ty Cobb Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Grayling, MI Posts: 4,611	Congratulations. __________________ "You could not live with your own failure. Where did that bring you? Back to me." Thanos

01-13-2025, 12:08 AM	#3
daves Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3,880	Is one of the Rookers actually playable on your team? __________________

01-13-2025, 11:45 AM	#5
rburgh All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 1,004	So You got 40K from a pack where you might get only 20K. You should be relatively happy. Yes, you could have done better, but at least half the perfect packs consist of one live perfect, so you did better than average. As far as odds go, 55% of the cards you pull from non-historical packs are live. Assuming that ct,1 in 200 packs will have a bonus perfect, that makes the odds about 380,000:1. So it's unlikely that this hasn't happened before in this iteration of the game. And the odds of this happening with any live perfect instead of specifically Rooker are about 16000:1.

01-26-2025, 11:15 AM	#7
rburgh All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 1,004	Much, much less likely. Probably more than a billion to one in a regular pack, and close to that even in a HDPK.

01-24-2025, 03:33 PM	#6
Morgans Magic Minors (Single A) Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 77	a couple weeks ago I landed the negro league cf Christian Torriento (sp?) a diamond in consecutive historical diamond packs, more or less likely>

01-26-2025, 11:34 AM	#8
RunninYakAngler Minors (Triple A) Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 236	Gloom, Despair, and Agony on me Back-to-back Rainbow packs. 90 live Bryan Woo and 100 Live Rucker, both packs. __________________

12-01-2025, 10:31 AM	#9
Bernagen Bat Boy Join Date: Nov 2025 Posts: 1	I’ve found that looking at long‑term trends in your league helps more than stressing over single-season swings, since the engine leans heavily on sample size and context. Sometimes I step away and read something totally different, like the breakdowns in casinos not on Gamestop, just to reset my brain before checking my roster logic again. It weirdly helps me spot things like park factors or usage patterns I missed before. Last edited by Bernagen; 01-16-2026 at 07:39 AM.