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OOTP 21 - Historical Simulations Discuss historical simulations and their results in this forum.

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Old 05-23-2020, 06:07 PM   #1
ArquimedezPozo
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Alternative Greatest Teams tournament

Given that I have a bit more free time on my hands than usual this spring, and with a lack of real MLB to focus on, I decided to run my own historical tournament that's somewhat different than the one OOTP is running. I'm also posting about it on this site:

topteamstournament.wordpress.com

I explain the methodology I used to pick teams here, but basically I used fWAR to determine the top teams in each franchise's history, with added bonus points for either a pennant or WS championship, then chose the top two from each current franchise's history, plus the two top remaining teams, then chose the finalists, trying to a) make sure that if the team had appeared in or won a WS, that team was there, and b) avoid having teams from the same era appear (so for example, the top three Braves clubs were all in the late 1990s, so instead I went with 1998 and 1957 - the fifth best overall, but the best WS winner).

I'm playing 5 game series for the first round, seven for each subsequent, and a nin gamer for the championship. So far it's coming out well and it's a lot of fun, so feel free to read along if you want - I'll post new entries here if there's interest. I just finished the first sixteen matchups - links to all the completed series can be found here.

Also, HUGE thanks to the modders who have created so many amazing older ballparks (especially @silvam) and historic facegens (@qcbandits) - those have made the experience a lot richer.
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Old 05-23-2020, 06:20 PM   #2
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Current bracket, as of midway through the first round:
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Old 05-25-2020, 02:25 AM   #3
messman
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I tried to create the Dream Bracket 2 that they are playing now on mlb. I can't figure how to play each game I choose to play. Any idea how to do it? I imported all the teams into a new file, created a rough schedule, but I want to be able to play every game if I choose. Any advice would be appreciated.
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Old 05-25-2020, 02:29 AM   #4
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BTW. Love the way you think with your tournament. Almost exactly like I want to run mine.
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Old 05-25-2020, 03:27 PM   #5
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Love your handle. Bonus points to anyone who remembers the MLB exploits of the player it refers to.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:27 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by messman View Post
I tried to create the Dream Bracket 2 that they are playing now on mlb. I can't figure how to play each game I choose to play. Any idea how to do it? I imported all the teams into a new file, created a rough schedule, but I want to be able to play every game if I choose. Any advice would be appreciated.
I'm using the historical simulations mode rather than a full season (maybe you are too? It was a bit unclear from the post). I didn't load the entire bracket at once though, I'm just doing it series by series and keeping my own bracket. That way I can do things like customize the DH between teams from different eras a little better, etc. Let me know if you meed pointers on how to set the historical sim up, it's honestly pretty awesome.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:29 AM   #7
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Love your handle. Bonus points to anyone who remembers the MLB exploits of the player it refers to.
For a while in the mid-2000s I ran a Red Sox blog called 12eight, and something I did every year was "present" an award to the MLB player with the best name. The award was the Arquimedez Pozo. I wish I still had the list - I know Hiram Bocachica won one year, and RP Rocky Biddle another.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:30 AM   #8
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A couple updates - first, a quick post with teams that could have or even should have been included; I may actually break my own system and replace a couple teams that haven't played yet, having thought over some stuff.

https://topteamstournament.wordpress...ave-been-here/
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:32 AM   #9
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But more importantly, Series 17 is underway! 2019 Washington Nationals (48.3 WAR, 21st seed in NL bracket) vs. 1906 Cubs (55.9 WAR, 8th seed in NL bracket)

Preview:

1906 to 2019: 113 years, the biggest gap in time between any two teams in the first round. That alone makes this worth watching.

On paper, this should be a pretty big mismatch: the team with the single greatest winning percentage in baseball history - the 1906 Cubs, who went 116-36 (.763) against a Nationals Wild Card team that was only barely above .500 at the All Star break and whose 93 regular season wins ranks pretty low among WS champions. And maybe it will be, but there is also potentially reason to think it will be competitive. For one, the Nationals were a team built more on starting pitching than a lot of their competition, with two fantastic frontline starters in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. That plays into the strengths of a series whose era settings will be in 1906 rather than 2019. For another, the Nats' offensive strength lay more in on base skills than on power, which won't be as affected by a switch to 1906. They're still certainly at a big disadvantage, but probably not as big a disadvantage as, say, the 2019 Yankees would have been at.

So let's talk about this incredible Cubs team. First the offense, because they scored runs in bunches. They were far and away the highest scoring club in the NL in 1906: they scored 704, and the next best team - the NY Giants - scored 625. They did it by being essentially go across the board; they weren't necessarily first in every hitting category, but they were almost always at least second. They hit for power after a fashion too - 20 homers, good for the second highest total in the league behind Brooklyn's 25 (yes, the leading HR hitting team in the NL in 1906 hit fewer home runs than Brett Gardner did in 2019); a league leading 71 triples; and a second-best 181 doubles, all of which gave them the best slugging% in the league. That went along with the second best OBP, second fewest strikeouts, and second most stolen bases in the league. Impressively, a lot of that was the work of four main hitters: Frank Chance, the hard-hitting 1B who hit .319/.419/.430; 3B Harry Steinfeldt; C Johnny Kling; and OF Frank Schulte, who led the club with a whopping 7 homers.

Cubs pitching, though, was even better. Their 381 runs allowed was almost 100 fewer than the next best team, the Pittsburgh Pirates, who allowed 464. They easily led in strikeouts, though they also walked their fair share of batters. But the real key was simply that they just didn't allow any hits -*as a team, they averaged 6.6 hits per nine innings, a full hit and a half better than the next club down the list. While relying most on Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown and Jack Pfiester - both of whom had ERAs below 2, including Brown's league-leading 1.04 mark - they also got excellent contributions from four other starters over the year, each and every one of whom was significantly above average in their value and output. Carl Lundgren was the worst of the bunch, because he was*the only pitcher with an ERA above 2, at 2.21. Even for 1906, that was very impressive. So runs are going to be at a serious premium for the Nationals in this series.

Speaking of the Nats, this was a club that was 19-31 in May and climbed out of that to become, as many recently branded them, the most improbable WS winners ever (though the 1969 Mets probably have something to say about that). They did it through good, timely hitting from Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and the criminally underrated Howie Kendrick, who has been an offensive force under the radar for years. But much more than that, they did it with great pitching, from one of the greatest pitchers of the era Max Scherzer, to Nationals lifer Stephen Strasburg, to newcomer Patrick Corbin, to journeyman Anibal Sanchez. Their bullpen struggles hampered their overall staff numbers and effectiveness, but in a short series - using 1906 standards with three-man rotations where pitchers will go deeper into games - the Nats starters could be a potent weapon.

So, let's head to West Side Park, where the Cubs plied their trade in the days before Wrigley was built, and see what the second half of the first round has in store.

Last edited by ArquimedezPozo; 05-26-2020 at 12:33 AM.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:35 AM   #10
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Game 1, West Side Park, Chicago, Illinois, 1906: Max Scherzer vs. Jack Pfiester, series tied 0-0.

Now this? This was a pitcher's duel. All the way from start to finish, all eyes were on the two men at the center of the diamond, Max Scherzer and Jack Pfiester, as they went deep into the game, each outdoing the other and making their respective offenses look silly and useless.

Let's talk about Scherzer first, because it turns out a dominant pitcher in 2019 will also dominate in 1906. Scherzer allowed seven hits over his nine innings of work, but he never gave up more than one in an inning, and he allowed only one extra base hit, a double to Jack Slagle with two outs in the 2nd that didn't figure into the final score. His command was also top notch, walking none while striking out six in a nine inning effort.

But out of the gate, Jack Pfiester was special. Around the third, you started to notice that persistent zero on the scoreboard under H; Pfiester hadn't been perfect, with a walk and 2 HBP, but the third passed without a base hit, and then the fourth, and the fifth, and the sixth, so that every at bat was dramatic. The seventh started with the Nationals two most dangerous hitters, Rendon and Soto, but Pfiester got them both to ground out to second, possibly facing them for the last time.

And then Victor Robles homered to right.

It wasn't a devastating shot - just 375 feet, but on a rope, off the bat at almost 110 mph. It broke up the no hitter and the shutout at once, and Max Scherzer still hadn't given up a run.

In the bottom of the seventh, Jimmy Slagle singled and was stranded.

In the eighth - after Pfiester worked around a Trea Turner double - Frank Schulte singled, and was stranded.

In the ninth, Frank Chance singled to lead off, though. He was replaced by Johnny Evers after the latter hit into a fielder's choice, and Johnny Kling struck out on four pitches, making Slagle the last chance for the Cubs. He went down 0-2 before taking a ball, then another. He fouled off four in a row, then took a ball to run the count full. On the tenth pitch of the at-bat, though, he swung, made contact...

... and flew out to right field, not deep. The Nationals streamed onto the field as RF Adam Eaton closed his glove around the last out: the Nationals had taken Game 1, 1-0, in a classic pitchers' duel that we can only hope will set the stage for the rest of the series.
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:41 PM   #11
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For a while in the mid-2000s I ran a Red Sox blog called 12eight, and something I did every year was "present" an award to the MLB player with the best name. The award was the Arquimedez Pozo. I wish I still had the list - I know Hiram Bocachica won one year, and RP Rocky Biddle another.
...And in the wayback machine...Razor Shines and Shooty Babitt!
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:47 PM   #12
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...And in the wayback machine...Razor Shines and Shooty Babitt!
Urban Shocker, another all time contender.
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Old 05-26-2020, 04:29 PM   #13
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And up until this moment I didn't notice that the third pitcher for the Cubs in this 1906 series is named Orval Overall. Another contender.
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Old 05-26-2020, 07:35 PM   #14
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And up until this moment I didn't notice that the third pitcher for the Cubs in this 1906 series is named Orval Overall. Another contender.
That pitching staff is loooaded!!! Mordecai Brown, Jack Pfiester, Ed Reulbach, Jack Taylor, and Orval Overall. Throw in Carl Lundgren as the sixth guy. ERA+: Brown 253, Pfiester 174, Reulbach 159, Taylor 144, Overall 141, and Lundgren 119. FIP: Brown 2.08, Pfiester 2.21, Overall 2.30, Taylor 2.91, Lundgren 2.97, and Reulbach 3.07. Ridonkulous! They are the #1 team all-time in Pythag W-L%, and I'm going to rank 'em #1 when I get around to my tournament. I'm using OOTPXX though, so there won't be any 2019 teams. The Dodgers and Astros will break into the pack when I get OOTP21. Yours looks good so far.
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:12 PM   #15
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How did you go about creating the tournament structure. Is there a template you used?

Thanks,
Pete
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:57 PM   #16
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ArquimedezPozo,
Did you mean Historical Exhibition? I too am keeping my own bracket. In the mode you are describing are you able to keep cumulative statistics for pitchers and batters over the course of the tournament?
The website with the tournament results and the justifications was very cool. I have a hard time with leaving anyone out, especially if they have a superstar or two.
Basically, I'd like to create a league/tournament, make the schedules, control all the games(whether I zoom them forward or play them), and keep the cumulative stats. Is that possible with OOTP?
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:28 PM   #17
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Historical exhibition mode. Just set mine up. Looks awesome !!!
Thanks for sharing
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:54 PM   #18
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ArquimedezPozo,
Did you mean Historical Exhibition? I too am keeping my own bracket. In the mode you are describing are you able to keep cumulative statistics for pitchers and batters over the course of the tournament?
The website with the tournament results and the justifications was very cool. I have a hard time with leaving anyone out, especially if they have a superstar or two.
Basically, I'd like to create a league/tournament, make the schedules, control all the games(whether I zoom them forward or play them), and keep the cumulative stats. Is that possible with OOTP?
So, as far as I know it is, though the stats and usability within the Historical Exhibition mode aren't as good as in the regular game mode. You also can't save mid series, which is a big issue (or, if you can, damned if I can't figure out how). It's relatively easy to do the first three things there, but I honestly don't know about cumulative stats: I'm setting mine up series by series instead of the full bracket, because it gives me a bit more granular control over era settings and DH settings.
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:59 PM   #19
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That pitching staff is loooaded!!! Mordecai Brown, Jack Pfiester, Ed Reulbach, Jack Taylor, and Orval Overall. Throw in Carl Lundgren as the sixth guy. ERA+: Brown 253, Pfiester 174, Reulbach 159, Taylor 144, Overall 141, and Lundgren 119. FIP: Brown 2.08, Pfiester 2.21, Overall 2.30, Taylor 2.91, Lundgren 2.97, and Reulbach 3.07. Ridonkulous! They are the #1 team all-time in Pythag W-L%, and I'm going to rank 'em #1 when I get around to my tournament. I'm using OOTPXX though, so there won't be any 2019 teams. The Dodgers and Astros will break into the pack when I get OOTP21. Yours looks good so far.
2019 was a crazy year for this - something like five or six franchises had either their best or second best ever WAR year in 2019. Dodgers (#2 to 1974), Astros, Twins, Rays (BARELY #2 to 2008), Nationals (#2 to 2014, though if you looked at WAR/162 the Expos would take it)... just a crazy season.

Anyway, through two, that Cubs team is in the hole 2-0 to the Nationals! History really does rhyme, I guess: the 06 Cubs went down to a pretty bad White Sox team, and the Nats beat one of the all-time best in the 2019 Stros. Still more to play, though.
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:59 PM   #20
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Game 2, West Side Park, Chicago, Illinois, 1906: Stephen Strasburg vs. Mordecai Brown, Nationals lead series 1-0.


Pregame: Another potentially excellent pitching matchup here. Strasburg has had an up and down career, but when healthy has often been among the best in the NL. His 2019 was excellent though, second only to his stellar 2017 campaign in his career. A 3.32 ERA (3.23 FIP) with 10.8 K/9 and a relatively low walk rate made him Washington's most valuable player, with a 6.2 pitching WAR.

He faces, though, an all-time great: Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown, so named because of an accident as a child that resulted in the loss of two fingers on his dominant right hand. The disability in this case was an added ability for him, though, as he was able to do things to the ball that other pitchers couldn't do, resulting in devastating breaking pitches. Over a 14 year MLB career, he posted a 2.06 ERA (2.41 FIP) and anchoring the Cubs pitching staff between 1904 and 1912. He spent a few more years bouncing around the National League, and was inducted into to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1949. Brown's 1906 was by far his greatest season: he led the NL with a miniscule 1.04 ERA over 277 innings of work while striking out a career high 144 (4.7 K/9) and allowing a career low 8% of hits for extra bases. Which, by the way, is nuts - almost 20% of the hits in the NL in 1906 were for extra bases overall.

So, again, we could be in for a great matchup in Game 2!

Postgame: Any idea that Game 2 would replicate Game 1 was gone in a hurry. With Mordecai Brown on the mound, the Nationals struck quick: SS Trea Turner, who apparently liked facing Brown as he went 3-4 off him, singled on the first pitch of the game, and RF Adam Eaton followed him on the second pitch with a triple into the right field corner. Turner was the first run of the inning, and Eaton became the second when Howie Kendrick lifted a fly ball into center. Brown got two more quick outs, but before even coming to the plate, the Cubs were in a hole.


They tried to dig out in the first against Strasburg, as LF Jimmy Scheckard and RF Frank Schute hit back to back singles to open the half. But Strasburg got a fly out, a fielder's choice that brought Scheckard to third, and another fly out that stranded him there.

The good news for the Cubs was that Brown was largely outstanding after the first. In a complete game effort, he allowed only three more hits while striking out five and walking one. The only other trouble spot for him came via bad luck in the fourth, as Juan Soto reached on a one-out error by 2B Johnny Evers, with the ball getting away from 1B Frank Chance to put Soto on second. Brown sent Victor Robles packing on strikes and looked like he could have gotten out of it, but a passed ball put Soto on third, and Asdrubal Cabrera delivered the single that scored him, making the contest 3-0 Nationals.

On the other side, though, Strasburg kept things quiet. He only struck out a single batter, and walked another, but he allowed just five hits. After working out of a first inning jam, not one Cub batter reached second base, as Strasburg scattered three singles and catcher Yan Gomes threw out two would be base stealers (Chance and Evers, who had combined for over 100 SBs in 1906). He, too, went the full nine, leaving Washington's bullpen to enjoy the weather as their starters refused to allow a single run in games 1 and 2. Will Patrick Corbin do the same at Nationals Stadium in Game 3, or will Cubs pitcher Orval Overall (yes, really) give his club the chance to climb back into this series and avoid a major upset?
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