AI DFA's a player when a move "obvious" choice exists

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 02:10 PM

Hi everyone,

Last year I noticed a large amount of big name players being DFA'd be the AI at various points during the season. It was a pet peeve of mine (to say the very least) and I'd like to provide examples as I come across them for OOTP22 also.
To give credit where it is due, I didn't see any AI "blunders" during the 2021 season (I am just simming unemployed on default settings).

First example, start of 2022 season and Dodgers have too many pitchers (seems to be a trend in OOTP). The AI has decided to DFA two RP.

Here is Blake Treinen. Signed for '22 at 9m (team option for '23 at 8m)

They also DFA'd Joe Kelly who they resigned for 2yr 6.32m total in January 2022.

The "obvious choice" (unless I am missing something) off their roster to DFA would be Shane Greene (again, IMO).

I am going to continue to sim (hoping to go about 5yr in to future or so) and try to document my findings to show that the AI can still be improved, even though it has already been certainly improved.

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 02:29 PM

Couple days later, LAD added Kirby Yates to 40man even though he's been injured since early March. (They did the same thing with Julio Urias who is still out 4 weeks)

They have DFA'd Jon Gray, who they signed for 3yr 21.1m before the season.

Also, they have DFA'd Tony Gonsolin.

On the active roster for LAD is ... Buck Farmer.

Edit: Rockies claimed Gonsolin.

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 02:42 PM

These 3 guys are showing on their injured list with long term injuries

But all 3 have been added back to 40 man

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 02:52 PM

David Robertson DFA'd (signed for 4.8m)

On active roster is ... Ty Buttrey

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 03:07 PM

Archie Bradley signed in February to a 3yr deal for 27.9m, but has been DFA'd in June.

Ty Buttrey still on active roster (Garrett Richards still on 40man and injured for another 9 months).

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 03:28 PM

Chris Paddack was really good for SD in 2021.
I know SD are very deep with pitching talent, but he went unclaimed by every other NL team and landed in Oakland.

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 03:35 PM

Jon Gray was released in June ...

Also, David Robertson was released in July ...

Joe Kelly was released in May ...

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 03:51 PM

Although Hunter Dozier isn't a "big name", he does have (at min.) 16.75m remaining (w/ team option for 10m for '25).
However, he is about a .750 OPS hitter, so there is an argument to be had.

KC has this player on the active roster still

Edit: Royals release Dozier and he signed with Pitt

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 04:15 PM

It isn't only the LAD that are having issues keeping players on 60 day IL off their 40 man roster. Here is Dennis Santana, now with Colorado.

He was hurt in early September and put on 60 day IL on Sept 10 (although it shows placed on 60 day IL then placed on 40man roster?)

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 06:40 PM

Here are few notable pitchers who have hit waiver wire before start of 2023.

Here is Robbie Ray, who has 6 years left on a 7yr deal he signed.

Here are the Mets relievers (probably no room in rotation, at this time).

Here is Julio Urias, who just signed a 3yr extension for 39.1m (Sept last season)

LAD has Clay Holmes on the active roster.

Edit: Julio Urias was released in April and signed with Oakland a week later. He made 4 starts for Oakland, tore his labrum and it was a career ending injury!!!

Also, Robbie Ray was released early April and signed with SF.

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 06:47 PM

Ken Giles is the latest LAD RP to get the DFA treatment (they're also DFA'ing Archie Bradley again to start this year).

WarningTrakPower · 04-01-2021, 07:14 PM

Jonathan Loaisiga went on waivers and got scooped up by Baltimore.

They do have a crowded bullpen (too many free agent signings)

WarningTrakPower · 04-04-2021, 11:55 AM

Tyler Mahle was DFA'd by NYY. He had a very good 2022, but Yankees had other SP options who are better.

I would have DFA'd (or traded) one of their aging RP to keep Mahle, if I were running their team.

WarningTrakPower · 04-05-2021, 09:36 AM

Looks like NYY were active again in free agent RP market.
They have a few decent pitchers on waivers to start the year.

Tyler Duffey signed a 3 year contract ($12.24m) in December.

Brad Keller signed a 3 year contract ($12.36m) in December.

Nick Mears is out of options, so makes sense.

Trevor Stephan was decent in 2023 putting up 2.2 WAR, but he's also out of options and their rotation is very good.

*Not shown is Jordan Montgomery who signed a 3 year extension ('24 to '26) for $18.9m prior to 2023 season.
This extension would have made sense after 2021 (2.9 WAR), but he was -0.8 WAR in 2022.

Pedro Avila is now out of options and fragile.

Edit: Brad Keller was claimed off waivers by Atlanta

WarningTrakPower · 04-05-2021, 10:59 AM

IRL, Josiah Gray is the #57 prospect in MLB (via MLB dot com) and in this sim he looks very decent.
LAD chose to sign a bunch of veteran pitchers and used all of Gray's option years.

Would have been nice to see them at least trade Gray and get something back for him.

WarningTrakPower · 04-05-2021, 11:41 AM

Miami was able to acquire Ramon Rosso off waivers in 2023 and he was very good for the Marlins.

While he isn't a "big name" and he is out of options, I do not understand why they would choose to DFA him.

Miami claimed Collin McHugh off waivers about two weeks ago and he has not been good statistically since 2021 (0.9 WAR).

WarningTrakPower · 05-13-2021, 11:16 AM

Milwaukee are currently 76-53 (1st place in NL Central) and they DFA'd one of their SP who has put up 3.2 WAR in 25 starts.

Here is Adrian Houser.

Here is their daily transactions.

Here is their current rotation.

Any of these five guys *could* be DFA'd to make room on 40 man.

This RP has already been optioned this year (to make room on 26 man roster).

WarningTrakPower · 10-12-2021, 04:18 PM

This is a completely new save on default settings!!!

August 21, 2021
San Fran DFA's Anthony DeSclafani and is claimed on waivers by Pitt.

He was having a nice season for SF with 3.4 WAR in 23 starts. Why didn't they trade him at the deadline?

This transaction comes with the random addition of Shun Yamaguchi to 40-man even though still injured for 2-3 months.

I am going to try and sim a bit further and will add more of my findings.

Please comment and post similar findings in any of your sims.

Edit - Josh Tomlin is still holding down a spot in SF rotation after 4 good starts since being signed in late July.

WarningTrakPower · 10-12-2021, 04:49 PM

Feb 1, 2022
CWS DFA Luis Gonzalez (one option year remaining)
They purchase the contract of John Gant (signed in January).

Also, they have an OF they drafted in rule 5 (who they may decide not to keep) and they have Mikie Mahtook (out of options).

WarningTrakPower · 10-12-2021, 04:52 PM

Feb 3, 2022
LAD DFA Tommy Kahnle after signing a free agent RP who spent all of 2021 in AA to a $1.44m contract.

Edit 1 - They signed Jose Alvarez on Feb 1 and DFA'd him on Feb 4.

Edit 2 - They signed Joe Smith on Feb 1 and DFA'd him on Feb 11.

Update

Edit 3 - They have DFA'd both Tony Gonsolin and Scott Alexander on Feb 17 (after signing Sergio Romo).
Gonsolin was claimed off waivers by Rockies.

Edit 4 - Alex Colome was DFA'd on March 31, 2022.

Edit 5 - Five LAD RP were DFA'd on opening day.

Edit 6 - Craig Kimbrel DFA'd by LAD after signing two year contract in January.

04-01-2021, 02:10 PM	#1
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	AI DFA's a player when a move "obvious" choice exists Hi everyone, Last year I noticed a large amount of big name players being DFA'd be the AI at various points during the season. It was a pet peeve of mine (to say the very least) and I'd like to provide examples as I come across them for OOTP22 also. To give credit where it is due, I didn't see any AI "blunders" during the 2021 season (I am just simming unemployed on default settings). First example, start of 2022 season and Dodgers have too many pitchers (seems to be a trend in OOTP). The AI has decided to DFA two RP. Here is Blake Treinen. Signed for '22 at 9m (team option for '23 at 8m) They also DFA'd Joe Kelly who they resigned for 2yr 6.32m total in January 2022. The "obvious choice" (unless I am missing something) off their roster to DFA would be Shane Greene (again, IMO). I am going to continue to sim (hoping to go about 5yr in to future or so) and try to document my findings to show that the AI can still be improved, even though it has already been certainly improved.

04-01-2021, 02:29 PM	#2
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Yates added to 40man roster, but been hurt over a month Couple days later, LAD added Kirby Yates to 40man even though he's been injured since early March. (They did the same thing with Julio Urias who is still out 4 weeks) They have DFA'd Jon Gray, who they signed for 3yr 21.1m before the season. Also, they have DFA'd Tony Gonsolin. On the active roster for LAD is ... Buck Farmer. Edit: Rockies claimed Gonsolin. Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 04-01-2021 at 02:48 PM. Reason: Added waiver claim info

04-01-2021, 02:42 PM	#3
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	LAD injured players on 40man These 3 guys are showing on their injured list with long term injuries But all 3 have been added back to 40 man

04-01-2021, 02:52 PM	#4
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Few days later ... David Robertson DFA'd (signed for 4.8m) On active roster is ... Ty Buttrey

04-01-2021, 03:28 PM	#6
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Non LAD pitcher DFA'd and claimed Chris Paddack was really good for SD in 2021. I know SD are very deep with pitching talent, but he went unclaimed by every other NL team and landed in Oakland.

04-01-2021, 03:07 PM	#5
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Another LAD RP DFA'd Archie Bradley signed in February to a 3yr deal for 27.9m, but has been DFA'd in June. Ty Buttrey still on active roster (Garrett Richards still on 40man and injured for another 9 months).

04-01-2021, 03:35 PM	#7
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Jon Gray Update Jon Gray was released in June ... Also, David Robertson was released in July ... Joe Kelly was released in May ... Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 04-01-2021 at 03:40 PM. Reason: added robertson and kelly info

04-01-2021, 03:51 PM	#8
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Hunter Dozier Although Hunter Dozier isn't a "big name", he does have (at min.) 16.75m remaining (w/ team option for 10m for '25). However, he is about a .750 OPS hitter, so there is an argument to be had. KC has this player on the active roster still Edit: Royals release Dozier and he signed with Pitt Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 04-01-2021 at 04:06 PM. Reason: Dozier was released

04-01-2021, 04:15 PM	#9
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Injured players on 40 man roster It isn't only the LAD that are having issues keeping players on 60 day IL off their 40 man roster. Here is Dennis Santana, now with Colorado. He was hurt in early September and put on 60 day IL on Sept 10 (although it shows placed on 60 day IL then placed on 40man roster?)

04-01-2021, 06:40 PM	#10
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Players with term being DFA'd before 2023 Here are few notable pitchers who have hit waiver wire before start of 2023. Here is Robbie Ray, who has 6 years left on a 7yr deal he signed. Here are the Mets relievers (probably no room in rotation, at this time). Here is Julio Urias, who just signed a 3yr extension for 39.1m (Sept last season) LAD has Clay Holmes on the active roster. Edit: Julio Urias was released in April and signed with Oakland a week later. He made 4 starts for Oakland, tore his labrum and it was a career ending injury!!! Also, Robbie Ray was released early April and signed with SF. Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 04-04-2021 at 12:43 PM.

04-01-2021, 06:47 PM	#11
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Ken Giles Ken Giles is the latest LAD RP to get the DFA treatment (they're also DFA'ing Archie Bradley again to start this year).

04-01-2021, 07:14 PM	#12
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Lasagna Jonathan Loaisiga went on waivers and got scooped up by Baltimore. They do have a crowded bullpen (too many free agent signings)

04-04-2021, 11:55 AM	#13
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Yankees Lose SP on Waivers Tyler Mahle was DFA'd by NYY. He had a very good 2022, but Yankees had other SP options who are better. I would have DFA'd (or traded) one of their aging RP to keep Mahle, if I were running their team.

04-05-2021, 09:36 AM	#14
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	2024 Opening Day Waivers Looks like NYY were active again in free agent RP market. They have a few decent pitchers on waivers to start the year. Tyler Duffey signed a 3 year contract ($12.24m) in December. Brad Keller signed a 3 year contract ($12.36m) in December. Nick Mears is out of options, so makes sense. Trevor Stephan was decent in 2023 putting up 2.2 WAR, but he's also out of options and their rotation is very good. Not shown is Jordan Montgomery* who signed a 3 year extension ('24 to '26) for $18.9m prior to 2023 season. This extension would have made sense after 2021 (2.9 WAR), but he was -0.8 WAR in 2022. Pedro Avila is now out of options and fragile. Edit: Brad Keller was claimed off waivers by Atlanta Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 04-05-2021 at 09:51 AM.

04-05-2021, 10:59 AM	#15
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	LAD lose decent pitching prospect on waivers IRL, Josiah Gray is the #57 prospect in MLB (via MLB dot com) and in this sim he looks very decent. LAD chose to sign a bunch of veteran pitchers and used all of Gray's option years. Would have been nice to see them at least trade Gray and get something back for him.

04-05-2021, 11:41 AM	#16
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Marlins lose good pitcher on waivers Miami was able to acquire Ramon Rosso off waivers in 2023 and he was very good for the Marlins. While he isn't a "big name" and he is out of options, I do not understand why they would choose to DFA him. Miami claimed Collin McHugh off waivers about two weeks ago and he has not been good statistically since 2021 (0.9 WAR).

05-13-2021, 11:16 AM	#17
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Brewers DFA'd a 3 WAR pitcher in August Milwaukee are currently 76-53 (1st place in NL Central) and they DFA'd one of their SP who has put up 3.2 WAR in 25 starts. Here is Adrian Houser. Here is their daily transactions. Here is their current rotation. Any of these five guys could be DFA'd to make room on 40 man. This RP has already been optioned this year (to make room on 26 man roster).

10-12-2021, 04:18 PM	#18
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Decided to do another test sim after latest patch release This is a completely new save on default settings!!! August 21, 2021 San Fran DFA's Anthony DeSclafani and is claimed on waivers by Pitt. He was having a nice season for SF with 3.4 WAR in 23 starts. Why didn't they trade him at the deadline? This transaction comes with the random addition of Shun Yamaguchi to 40-man even though still injured for 2-3 months. I am going to try and sim a bit further and will add more of my findings. Please comment and post similar findings in any of your sims. Edit - Josh Tomlin is still holding down a spot in SF rotation after 4 good starts since being signed in late July. Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 10-12-2021 at 04:21 PM.

10-12-2021, 04:49 PM	#19
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Luis Gonzalez Feb 1, 2022 CWS DFA Luis Gonzalez (one option year remaining) They purchase the contract of John Gant (signed in January). Also, they have an OF they drafted in rule 5 (who they may decide not to keep) and they have Mikie Mahtook (out of options).

10-12-2021, 04:52 PM	#20
WarningTrakPower All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2018 Posts: 595	Tommy Kahnle Feb 3, 2022 LAD DFA Tommy Kahnle after signing a free agent RP who spent all of 2021 in AA to a $1.44m contract. Edit 1 - They signed Jose Alvarez on Feb 1 and DFA'd him on Feb 4. Edit 2 - They signed Joe Smith on Feb 1 and DFA'd him on Feb 11. Update Edit 3 - They have DFA'd both Tony Gonsolin and Scott Alexander on Feb 17 (after signing Sergio Romo). Gonsolin was claimed off waivers by Rockies. Edit 4 - Alex Colome was DFA'd on March 31, 2022. Edit 5 - Five LAD RP were DFA'd on opening day. Edit 6 - Craig Kimbrel DFA'd by LAD after signing two year contract in January. Last edited by WarningTrakPower; 10-12-2021 at 05:15 PM.