Does quick-selling (or anything else) affect drop rates? (1 live Aaron Judge in 101 live Diamonds)

[DotDash]

Hi,

Since Friday's mission drops, and leading up to the next live update, I have been opening more packs than usual. As a result, I have pulled 101 live Diamond cards in just a few days.
In a different thread, I commented that I believe that cards of equal rarity do not drop equally often, and gave some supporting data. I want to ask those with a grasp on statistics (which I don't have) to look at this data and tell me if this a normal distribution of cards which in theory have the same chance of dropping.
There are too many live silvers and golds for me to track individually, but I am observing the same phenomenon there - some cards are dropping way more often than others.
Anyway, live Aaron Judge (now up to 17K L10 value) dropped only once compared to some, supposedly equally likely to drop, cards dropping 7 times - and the distribution being very lopsided in general.

I'm very curious: Is this a normal distribution pattern? Is anyone else having more luck getting desirable cards to drop? If this isn't normal, what could be causing it?

Thanks for your input.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by DotDash

Hi,

Since Friday's mission drops, and leading up to the next live update, I have been opening more packs than usual. As a result, I have pulled 101 live Diamond cards in just a few days.
In a different thread, I commented that I believe that cards of equal rarity do not drop equally often, and gave some supporting data. I want to ask those with a grasp on statistics (which I don't have) to look at this data and tell me if this a normal distribution of cards which in theory have the same chance of dropping.
There are too many live silvers and golds for me to track individually, but I am observing the same phenomenon there - some cards are dropping way more often than others.
Anyway, live Aaron Judge (now up to 17K L10 value) dropped only once compared to some, supposedly equally likely to drop, cards dropping 7 times - and the distribution being very lopsided in general.

I'm very curious: Is this a normal distribution pattern? Is anyone else having more luck getting desirable cards to drop? If this isn't normal, what could be causing it?

Thanks for your input.

Thanks for posting your results.

They are actually not equally likely to drop. I'm not sure what the rate difference is, but pulling a 99 happens significantly less than pulling a 90 - and this goes for live and non-live cards. Same goes for pulling an 89 vs. an 80, and the same for each level.

I always keep tabs on how many non-live silvers/golds/diamonds I have (ones that aren't in missions yet is what I pay attention to) and I have WAY less 77-79's vs. 70-73's - and again, this applies to every level.

And it makes sense. A 99 is a better card than a 90, a better pull, so it's more rare.

I've only pulled one Judge ALL MONTH, so I do feel your pain - as a comparison, I've pulled 9 Corbin Burnes, LOL.

EDIT: I noticed you did pull 7 of the 99 Rogers. That could have just as easily been 7 Judge's - that's just where blind luck comes in. Also, Rogers very well may go to 100 on this update, so that would make him actually as valuable as the Judge anyway - also, you pulled 0 Mantiply's, which could be considered lucky!

[smales72]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

Thanks for posting your results.

They are actually not equally likely to drop. I'm not sure what the rate difference is, but pulling a 99 happens significantly less than pulling a 90 - and this goes for live and non-live cards. Same goes for pulling an 89 vs. an 80, and the same for each level.

I always keep tabs on how many non-live silvers/golds/diamonds I have (ones that aren't in missions yet is what I pay attention to) and I have WAY less 77-79's vs. 70-73's - and again, this applies to every level.

And it makes sense. A 99 is a better card than a 90, a better pull, so it's more rare.




I've only pulled one Judge ALL MONTH, so I do feel your pain - as a comparison, I've pulled 9 Corbin Burnes, LOL.

EDIT: I noticed you did pull 7 of the 99 Rogers. That could have just as easily been 7 Judge's - that's just where blind luck comes in. Also, Rogers very well may go to 100 on this update, so that would make him actually as valuable as the Judge anyway - also, you pulled 0 Mantiply's, which could be considered lucky!

Any analysis on the Sloppy Thurston drop rate? Seems like that guy is always getting off the bus for me. Would love to field a team of all Sloppys at every position.