PSA Warning: "Avoid High Leverage" increases the chance of your bad relievers being used

[uruguru]

Situation: let's say you have a relief pitcher you want to hide. Maybe you are abusing Rule V and want to carry a prospect on your ML roster uplayed the entire season, or perhaps you have some position players who can technically pitch at a lower AA level so you want them to be available for mopup duty to rest your real pitchers in low-leverage situations.


"Avoid High Leverage" is not the same thing as "Low Leverage Only" or "Mop Up Duty". Those options do not exist in OOTP currently.

If you set your worst reliever to "Avoid High Leverage" then he may actually be given priority over rested relievers who are better than him. I don't have access to the source code so I can't explain why, but I have seen this happen repeatedly where my reserve CF comes in with his 8+ FIP to throw slop in a SAVE SITUATION over a completely rested reliever with a 4+ FIP.

So, until we get an actual "Mop Up Duty" option for relievers, it is important to realize that "Avoid High Leverage" is actually counterproductive at hiding bad pitchers. What has worked well for me is just to put every reliever except the Stopper at "Middle Relief - Normal Usage" so that the AI doesn't get confused by conflicting role assignments and always properly evaluates my centerfielder as the worst relief option in any situation.


Note to devs: an easy way to define "mop-up duty" would be:

When winning:

1) can only come to pitch in the 8th or 9th inning. Will pitch 1 or 2 innings.

2) assume the pitcher will give up 4 runs (+baserunners) over 1 inning, or 6 runs (+baserunners) over 2 innings.

3) we still want to win the game. This means we need a 5-run lead with bases empty in the 9th, or a 7-run lead with bases empty in the 8th before we will bring in a mop-up guy.

4) Yank the mop-up guy when the tying run comes up on deck

When losing:

1) down by 7 runs in the 8th or 9th inning. That's about it.

I hope this will help players from watching their AI manager throw away a few games with the last guy you ever want to see on the mound!

[uknownick]

This is a very interesting finding. I wonder if others have discovered the same issue with avoid high leverage. I put it on all my middle relievers and have had mixed success with it. After reading this, I might need to tweak my approach.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by uknownick

This is a very interesting finding. I wonder if others have discovered the same issue with avoid high leverage. I put it on all my middle relievers and have had mixed success with it. After reading this, I might need to tweak my approach.

If you put it on all of your middle relievers, then who's going to pitch in high leverage spots in the middle innings? I'd be interested to know if that essentially cancels it out and the AI just picks the highest-rested middle reliever, or if the AI chooses a setup man or long reliever. My guess is that it would be the former because I've always taken "Avoid High Leverage" to mean to not use that guy in high leverage if at all possible, with the understanding that there may be times when it's unavoidable.

[PSUColonel]

Basically I think if you look at the basic formula the AI uses for most teams’ there’s probably a reason. I don’t know how well the AI works with settings other than what it usually does which is a closer, 2 setup, 3 or 4 middle RP with one of those used more often.

It seems like a very basic and generic setup for most teams.

[nutt]

Yeah I don't have this issue with my minor league teams. It works for them. Besides, I got 7-9 relievers at each level.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by uknownick

This is a very interesting finding. I wonder if others have discovered the same issue with avoid high leverage. I put it on all my middle relievers and have had mixed success with it. After reading this, I might need to tweak my approach.

I suspect what is happening (I can't know for sure without looking at the code), is that the AI determines that a reliever needs to come in. It then asks: is this a high leverage situation? If not, then it gives priority to rested relievers who are set to "Avoid High Leverage" over other rested relievers. In that context, these moves would make perfect sense so that to me is the most charitable explanation (i.e. I don't think this is a bug)

From what devs have said, high leverage involves runners being on base late in the game. So if you are up by a run in the 8th with no one on base (still a save situation), this is NOT a high leverage situation therefore bring in Jose Canseco (lol)

What I think we need is either a "Mop Up Duty" or "Emergency Use Only" option. The former would only occur in blowouts, while the latter would only occur when every other reliever is not rested.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by uruguru

From what devs have said, high leverage involves runners being on base late in the game. So if you are up by a run in the 8th with no one on base (still a save situation), this is NOT a high leverage situation therefore bring in Jose Canseco (lol)

With regards to the bolded part, that should be a situation where the AI would use a setup man or a closer (depending on the closer's usage setting). If you (and I don't mean you specifically) have a setup man who you don't want pitching in high leverage situations, you need to rethink your bullpen roles.

To the topic at whole, I think we need some hard data proving there's a problem with the avoid high leverage setting before we ask for new roles or altered coding. A lot of people have been playing OOTP for multiple years since that bullpen usage setting was added and I have not seen anyone else mention this until now. So I'm a bit skeptical that there's an issue that needs to be addressed.

[captaincoop17]

Would agree with this thread. Haven't used the "avoid high leverage" tag since I had the suspicion that it was doing this. Glaring issue in postseason games.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

With regards to the bolded part, that should be a situation where the AI would use a setup man or a closer (depending on the closer's usage setting). If you (and I don't mean you specifically) have a setup man who you don't want pitching in high leverage situations, you need to rethink your bullpen roles.

To the topic at whole, I think we need some hard data proving there's a problem with the avoid high leverage setting before we ask for new roles or altered coding. A lot of people have been playing OOTP for multiple years since that bullpen usage setting was added and I have not seen anyone else mention this until now. So I'm a bit skeptical that there's an issue that needs to be addressed.

I had all of my relievers (5) set to "Middle Relief - Normal Usage" because no one really stood out as Stopper material so I figured I would let the AI decide which reliever would be best in any given situation.

I also had two position players who could pitch, albeit poorly, and I wanted them to be available to pitch in emergency roles rather than pull a starter out of the rotation. I set both of those to "Avoid High Leverage" under the assumption that this indicated I didn't want them to pitch before any of the other relievers. To give an idea of the difference in quality, the 5 actual relievers had FIPs listed in the player editor from the low 4s to the high 5s. The two position players had a FIP of 7+ and 9+, respectively.

Then a save situation came up (1-run lead, top of the 9th) and the AI put in the worst of the two non-pitchers (the 9+ FIP) in for the save. I checked and there were two "real" relievers fully rested and available that were not chosen.

I don't think it's a bug. I think instead that "Avoid High Leverage" means something different to the AI than what most players would assume. Thus my warning post.

And exactly what would qualify as "hard data" ?

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by uruguru

I had all of my relievers (5) set to "Middle Relief - Normal Usage" because no one really stood out as Stopper material so I figured I would let the AI decide which reliever would be best in any given situation.

I also had two position players who could pitch, albeit poorly, and I wanted them to be available to pitch in emergency roles rather than pull a starter out of the rotation. I set both of those to "Avoid High Leverage" under the assumption that this indicated I didn't want them to pitch before any of the other relievers. To give an idea of the difference in quality, the 5 actual relievers had FIPs listed in the player editor from the low 4s to the high 5s. The two position players had a FIP of 7+ and 9+, respectively.

Then a save situation came up (1-run lead, top of the 9th) and the AI put in the worst of the two non-pitchers (the 9+ FIP) in for the save. I checked and there were two "real" relievers fully rested and available that were not chosen.

I don't think it's a bug. I think instead that "Avoid High Leverage" means something different to the AI than what most players would assume. Thus my warning post.

And exactly what would qualify as "hard data" ?

If I'm understanding correctly, you have no relievers set as closer or setup or stopper? I have no evidence to support this, but if I'm understanding your bullpen setup correctly, the AI may essentially be grasping at straws to choose a closer. I agree that it shouldn't be making the worst possible choice. But you're also setting the AI up to fail by not designating someone as the closer or any setup men.

As far as what qualifies as hard data, certainly more than your anecdotal evidence. I'm not trying to knock you, but as I said before, lots of people have been playing OOTP for years and nobody has yet to make the same claim. We'd need to see that high leverage is causing issues season after season across many teams and many different circumstances.

It appears that your bullpen setup is not typical in terms of how you're using the roles. Is there an issue if you don't designate a closer or setup men? I'd say yes based on what you've posted. Is there an issue with the avoid high leverage setting in all instances. I don't see that, not yet anyway.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

the AI may essentially be grasping at straws to choose a closer. I agree that it shouldn't be making the worst possible choice.

I agree. That's what it did! And not only that, but the guy it chose was specifically set to "Avoid High Leverage". I've restarted the league and set those two position-player pitchers to "Middle Relief - Normal Usage" and neither has come in for a save situation... yet.

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

As far as what qualifies as hard data, certainly more than your anecdotal evidence. I'm not trying to knock you, but as I said before, lots of people have been playing OOTP for years and nobody has yet to make the same claim.

So... screenshots? A video gameplay?

Why would I fabricate a claim like that? I have put thousands upon thousands of hours into this game. The purpose of my post was to sort of warn my fellow OOTP'ers that this kind of AI behavior was possible.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by uruguru

Why would I fabricate a claim like that? I have put thousands upon thousands of hours into this game. The purpose of my post was to sort of warn my fellow OOTP'ers that this kind of AI behavior was possible.

No, sorry. I'm not saying that I don't believe that it's happening in your game. I 100 percent do. But my gut says it's a result of the fact that you don't have any pitchers in the closer, setup or stopper roles, so the AI is getting confused.

What I mean by hard data is some testing that shows what's happening to you happens on a regular basis in multiple games over multiple seasons, and particularly when a bullpen is set up in a traditional manner with a closer and setup men defined in the bullpen roles.

I understand that's a lot of work and don't expect you to go out and do that. My point about all the other users who are playing OOTP is that they are essentially doing that research for us and over multiple years since the avoid high leverage setting was added to the game, you are the first person to report a problem. I would think that if it's a widespread problem, others would have reported the same thing or at the absolute very least they'd be jumping into this thread to say, hey, this is happening to me, too.

There might be some improvements that could be made, but I don't think the blanket statement that avoid high leverage actually increases the chance a pitcher will be used in high leverage situations can be considered accurate in all situations.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by BIG17EASY

My point about all the other users who are playing OOTP is that they are essentially doing that research for us and over multiple years since the avoid high leverage setting was added to the game, you are the first person to report a problem. I would think that if it's a widespread problem, others would have reported the same thing or at the absolute very least they'd be jumping into this thread to say, hey, this is happening to me, too.

I suspect that most players would never have non-pitchers available in their bullpen as emergency relievers, so they would never notice this kind of behavior.

That's why the first paragraph of my post specifically laid out the situation in which a player might see this behavior. If they don't have the situation, then I wouldn't expect them to see it.

What you are essentially saying is that the situation in which this AI problem is occurring is one that I can avoid by assigning stopper roles. This might fix the issue for save situations, but it doesn't address the root issue of there not being a way to specify 'emergency use only' for these types of non-pitchers in the bullpen.

"Avoid High Leverage" is a phrase which implies that so players need to understand it's not the same thing.

[billyray1984]

Originally Posted by uruguru

I suspect that most players would never have non-pitchers available in their bullpen as emergency relievers, so they would never notice this kind of behavior.

That's why the first paragraph of my post specifically laid out the situation in which a player might see this behavior. If they don't have the situation, then I wouldn't expect them to see it.

What you are essentially saying is that the situation in which this AI problem is occurring is one that I can avoid by assigning stopper roles. This might fix the issue for save situations, but it doesn't address the root issue of there not being a way to specify 'emergency use only' for these types of non-pitchers in the bullpen.

"Avoid High Leverage" is a phrase which implies that so players need to understand it's not the same thing.

I agree that the AI is not always very good at knowing if a situation is high leverage or not, especially late in game or with runners on. With one out and a guy on 2nd in the 8th with a 4 point lead, the computer might not see this situation as high leverage, but to me, I would have my fireman/stopper come in anyway to quash any chance of big inning.

The situation is made worse if you allow your position players to pitch or if you try to hide someone who is clearly struggling (i.e. Rule V). I had a save in 22 where my star 1B was a pitcher who developped godly hitting ratings in the minors. So he could be a passable AA reliever. If I allowed him to be a two-way player, even if I chose "Avoid high leverage" the computer would have him pitch 20-30 innings a year resulting in terrible peripherals and worse ERA, even in the minors.

No position player who gets called to pitch in blow outs gets used that much, so he was clearly used in situations where the game wasn't already decided.

The solution would be to have a more granular system for reliever usage allowing to specify what is high leverage or not, but I don't think that's in the cards, and I don't really care to see it being hard coded since reliever usage changed a lot in baseball history and the game needs to adequately sim for all eras.

For me, I just specify high leverage as a secondary role on guys who I want to come in high leverage situations (i.e. setup, closer/stopper and maybe 1 or 2 middle relievers), give quick hooks to everybody else except 2 long relievers with high stamina that get used to mop-up/eat innings if someone gets injured, gets trucked or we're not in the game.

Sure guys get used when down 9 to 0, but that's what they're for. And to be fair, if I choose to specify "Avoid high leverage" on a guy, his pLi will tend be lower than a guy who didn't have that role at the end of the year, meaning that as a whole, he did tend to come in in lower leverage situations.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by uruguru

I suspect that most players would never have non-pitchers available in their bullpen as emergency relievers, so they would never notice this kind of behavior.

That's why the first paragraph of my post specifically laid out the situation in which a player might see this behavior. If they don't have the situation, then I wouldn't expect them to see it.

What you are essentially saying is that the situation in which this AI problem is occurring is one that I can avoid by assigning stopper roles. This might fix the issue for save situations, but it doesn't address the root issue of there not being a way to specify 'emergency use only' for these types of non-pitchers in the bullpen.

"Avoid High Leverage" is a phrase which implies that so players need to understand it's not the same thing.

"Avoid high leverage" doesn't imply "emergency use only" to me, so I guess that's where we disagree. That said, I do agree that bringing back the mop-up role would be nice.

[Socali]

On Pitching View Tab add Pitcher Stat Column for "Average Leverage" or "pLi".

I have long used this and when I put a slumping pitcher on "Avoid High Leverage" the pLi always goes down which will provide you tangible evidence of average leverage situations pitcher is used.

[liberty-ca]

Originally Posted by uruguru

The purpose of my post was to sort of warn my fellow OOTP'ers that this kind of AI behavior was possible.

I appreciate your input very much.

[BIG17EASY]

Originally Posted by Socali

On Pitching View Tab add Pitcher Stat Column for "Average Leverage" or "pLi".

I have long used this and when I put a slumping pitcher on "Avoid High Leverage" the pLi always goes down which will provide you tangible evidence of average leverage situations pitcher is used.

Good call. This should provide evidence for or against the theory in the OP.

[uruguru]

Originally Posted by liberty-ca

I appreciate your input very much.

My new experiment is to restart the season and put those two position players in the bullpen with "None Specified" as the primary role. Nine games in and every reliever has been used at least once except for the two players. Just maybe....

edit: our 14th game of the season was a 20-inning marathon(!) with the Phillies, immediately following 12-inning and 10-inning games. So far, neither of the position players were pulled in to relieve as there were always real relievers available. Maybe the "None Specified" role is the way to go? I wonder because this is by far the most usage the bullpen has had in these sims without the position players coming in. The bullpen setup is in the attached image.