Team-wide defensive regression -- how and why

rink23 · 03-12-2023, 07:53 PM

I am playing the 2024 season of the St. Louis Cardinals.
A year ago, the team went 89-73 and won the NL Central.
A big reason, one of top defense's in the league.
It ranked 4th in defensive efficiency -- .697
It ranked third in zone rating -- +19.6.
It ranked tied for fourth in errors -- 83.
Just past the midway point in 2024, the Cardinals defense is one of the league's worst and it shows in its 38-47 record, which includes wins in six of its last seven games.
All eight position starters are back from 2023.
This year's rankings.
Defensive efficiency 15th - .668
Zone rating 15th -- -14.1.
Errors T-12th -- 51.
I know players get a year older and may regress some.
But this much?
There were a couple of coaching changes, but their still excellent (catch and infield) and legendary (outfield) in their teaching roles.
Any thoughts?

Charlie Hough · 03-13-2023, 10:13 PM

Are player ratings visible in your game? Did your players' defensive ratings, range, and arm ratings change, or do their scouting reports indicate any decline in their defense? What is your talent change randomness setting? It's possible that some of your players have seen a temporary defensive ratings decline but might return to normal.

Granted, 85 games is more than half a season, but there is still time to see the team's performance improve, so it could be a bit of a sample size issue.

uknownick · 03-14-2023, 08:49 AM

I would not worry too much about defensive efficiency.

Look around and see who has dropped off in their ZR. It is likely your CF or SS lost some range. You might want to view by ZR stats and find the particular player who has regressed.

One great defensive player can save 20+ ZR in a season. It is very easy to fix. Just get a very rangy SS or CF or both.

03-12-2023, 07:53 PM	#1
rink23 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 22,101	Team-wide defensive regression -- how and why I am playing the 2024 season of the St. Louis Cardinals. A year ago, the team went 89-73 and won the NL Central. A big reason, one of top defense's in the league. It ranked 4th in defensive efficiency -- .697 It ranked third in zone rating -- +19.6. It ranked tied for fourth in errors -- 83. Just past the midway point in 2024, the Cardinals defense is one of the league's worst and it shows in its 38-47 record, which includes wins in six of its last seven games. All eight position starters are back from 2023. This year's rankings. Defensive efficiency 15th - .668 Zone rating 15th -- -14.1. Errors T-12th -- 51. I know players get a year older and may regress some. But this much? There were a couple of coaching changes, but their still excellent (catch and infield) and legendary (outfield) in their teaching roles. Any thoughts?

03-13-2023, 10:13 PM	#2
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,640	Are player ratings visible in your game? Did your players' defensive ratings, range, and arm ratings change, or do their scouting reports indicate any decline in their defense? What is your talent change randomness setting? It's possible that some of your players have seen a temporary defensive ratings decline but might return to normal. Granted, 85 games is more than half a season, but there is still time to see the team's performance improve, so it could be a bit of a sample size issue.

03-14-2023, 08:49 AM	#3
uknownick Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2023 Posts: 107	I would not worry too much about defensive efficiency. Look around and see who has dropped off in their ZR. It is likely your CF or SS lost some range. You might want to view by ZR stats and find the particular player who has regressed. One great defensive player can save 20+ ZR in a season. It is very easy to fix. Just get a very rangy SS or CF or both.