How much do you trust the "OSA Mock Draft"?

mortmachine · 12-04-2024, 02:42 PM

I haven't paid any attention to it up until now -- now I'm running a draft where I've got the eighth overall pick. I'm looking at two high school pitchers -- one is rated a 71 by both my scout & the OSA, the other is also rated a 71 by my scout, but only 61 by the OSA. I've looked at the position players still on the board, and none excite me... So I looked at the mock draft, and they've got that first pitcher going with the 11th pick in the second round, and the other pitcher going with the 3rd pick in the 3rd round. Am I crazy taking one of those pitchers with the eighth pick in the first round? To be honest, I haven't played long enough to see how high school pitchers develop... and I know there's risk there... But I don't think I can trust the OSA mock draft, because the mock has me picking a different high school pitcher with an overall rating in the high 40's (49 by my scout, 47 OSA). That doesn't make any sense to me!

TIA!

Sweed · 12-04-2024, 04:35 PM

I look at it as flavor and not something I'll put much stock in.

Would I pick one of the P's you present in the first round though you say the mock has them going lower? Like all of my picks it would depend on current and potential skills (NOT OVERALL AND POTENTIAL) but current and potential skills along with intangibles.

As a general rule, like RL, HS P's are more risky than the more developed College pitchers. The best advice I can give is examine the P's in depth, look at others available, and decide if you think either would still be there at least in the second round.

eauhomme · 12-09-2024, 02:12 AM

I wrote out the whole mock draft one time and then marked off each player as he was picked. Some first round prediction actually went in the fourth or fifth and I believe a fourth round prediction was taken in the first. So no, I don't pay that much attention now.

assamarra · 12-09-2024, 02:37 PM

I trust it as much as I trust a fart at the twenty mile marker when running a marathon.

mortmachine · 12-09-2024, 04:21 PM

I can confirm -- with regard to the draft that I just ran, the mock draft was "for entertainment purposes only."

eauhomme · 12-09-2024, 05:38 PM

Yup. The reason I wrote it out and tested it was because I was worried I was drafting a 5-star stud with a low bonus demand too early on a few sims, where the Mock Draft had him at 2nd round or later, while there were some 2.5 and 3-star guys listed as OSA first rounders.

Bagpipes5 · 12-10-2024, 06:08 PM

About as much stock as I put into the mock NFL draft's and such. Not much, it's tongue in cheek...

kq76 · 12-10-2024, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eauhomme

I wrote out the whole mock draft one time and then marked off each player as he was picked.

If you want a maybe more accurate, or at least a different way of doing it and one that you can export to a browser and copy and paste into a spreadsheet, create a copy of your league folder, sim the draft using the copy and then go to the draft log and click "open in browser". Maybe compare it to the generated mock draft. It could easily be argued that you shouldn't do that as it might give you an unfair advantage, but at the very least it does allow you to copy and paste it and do whatever you want to it like marking off picked players.

It'd be nice if they let us open the generated mock draft in a browser.

12-04-2024, 02:42 PM	#1
mortmachine Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2024 Location: Farmington, MN Posts: 46	How much do you trust the "OSA Mock Draft"? I haven't paid any attention to it up until now -- now I'm running a draft where I've got the eighth overall pick. I'm looking at two high school pitchers -- one is rated a 71 by both my scout & the OSA, the other is also rated a 71 by my scout, but only 61 by the OSA. I've looked at the position players still on the board, and none excite me... So I looked at the mock draft, and they've got that first pitcher going with the 11th pick in the second round, and the other pitcher going with the 3rd pick in the 3rd round. Am I crazy taking one of those pitchers with the eighth pick in the first round? To be honest, I haven't played long enough to see how high school pitchers develop... and I know there's risk there... But I don't think I can trust the OSA mock draft, because the mock has me picking a different high school pitcher with an overall rating in the high 40's (49 by my scout, 47 OSA). That doesn't make any sense to me! TIA!

12-09-2024, 02:37 PM	#4
assamarra Minors (Double A) Join Date: Apr 2019 Location: Cumberland, England Posts: 128	I trust it as much as I trust a fart at the twenty mile marker when running a marathon. __________________ Expect the worst, anything else is a bonus

12-09-2024, 02:12 AM	#3
eauhomme Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 129	I wrote out the whole mock draft one time and then marked off each player as he was picked. Some first round prediction actually went in the fourth or fifth and I believe a fourth round prediction was taken in the first. So no, I don't pay that much attention now.

12-09-2024, 04:21 PM	#5
mortmachine Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Mar 2024 Location: Farmington, MN Posts: 46	I can confirm -- with regard to the draft that I just ran, the mock draft was "for entertainment purposes only."

12-09-2024, 05:38 PM	#6
eauhomme Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jan 2022 Posts: 129	Yup. The reason I wrote it out and tested it was because I was worried I was drafting a 5-star stud with a low bonus demand too early on a few sims, where the Mock Draft had him at 2nd round or later, while there were some 2.5 and 3-star guys listed as OSA first rounders.

12-10-2024, 06:08 PM	#7
Bagpipes5 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: TX Posts: 460	About as much stock as I put into the mock NFL draft's and such. Not much, it's tongue in cheek...